Japan seems to be quite bad - they're testing 150 people a day, 1/3rd coming back positive.
The big infection reduction effort - working from home, cancelling events, closing schools - started about 2 weeks ago, and it takes that long to show symptoms, so the big question is whether the rate of increase starts to drop over the next week or so. If that works, it can probably be replicated in other developed countries without completely destroying the economy. If it doesn't... well, that wouldn't be good...
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive. So interpretation depends on how the sample of people is selected for testing. The outcome of random testing should not depend on the delay to show symptoms.
Getting the Pharmaceutical industry to investigate non-profitable areas is the whole point of research grants. That was why Corbyn's idea during the election of threatening to make such grants contingent on playing ball with drugs prices was so incoherent/nonsensical. Grants are given for the benefit of public health, not (as he seemed to think) as a subsidy to/for the benefit of the Pharmaceutical industry.
Evidence?
You think they are intended as a subsidy? Or that they don't do what they are supposed to do? Given the Pharmaceutical industry is hugely profitable, what other purpose can research grants form, other than to incentivise research in potentially non-profitable and/or risky areas? Or that they are offered in the UK as a quid pro quo to maintaining reasonable prices in the NHS? (which would mean withholding them would presumably have the opposite effect to what Corbyn intended)
You've outlined the desired way the system works. I'm asking for any evidence you have that the research grant mechanism actually works in the desired way.
Why not do some of your own work ? We’re not a paid team of researchers for you to direct as you please.
Indeed, but if someone makes a statement they can't support, it is going to lack credibility.
If something is supposed to work in a particular way, then I think those saying that it doesn’t are the ones who need to provide evidence.
Edit: for example I don’t think Corbyn is being controlled by the French, but I couldn’t provide you with any evidence for that statement. Does that mean we should assume he is?
Er, no. Corbyn was strongly criticised for wanting to tie research grants to more reasonable prices for pharmaceutical products. The reason for this criticism is that 'obviously' research grants are given in furtherance of the cause of beneficial but low profit research. I asked for any evidence that this was actually what happens in practise. None has been forthcoming. I make that one nil for Corbyn.
Research grants aren’t blank cheques.
The process is designed to target them to desired areas.
You are claiming the process doesn’t work. It’s on you to provide the evidence.
I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis....
I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.
What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.
I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even imagine?
I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.
But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.
I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing. Canadian Infectious Disease Specialist
Pointless given the state of the arsehole panic merchants in this country , they will shoot their granny for the last pack of toilet rolls
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
Your recipe for tortellini in brodo would also be much appreciated, Cyclefree (if it’s not a family secret). Though it would have to be an occasional treat as I have vegetarians in the family....
Later.
We could put together the PoliticalBetting Quarantine CookBook......
I will certainly contribute to the soups and casseroles section
I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis....
I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.
What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.
I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even imagine?
I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.
But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.
Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.
I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing. Canadian Infectious Disease Specialist
Pointless given the state of the arsehole panic merchants in this country , they will shoot their granny for the last pack of toilet rolls
Just a bunch of southern fairies. I've seen no panicking around here, it's maybe reached "put the kettle on" level.
1.From a proper butcher get some bones: chicken, beef, veal and marrow. Marrow is good because of the fatty content. 2. Get a VERY BIG PAN. 3. Put in equal amounts of carrots, celery and onions, very roughly chopped. And water. 4. Slow boil with a mixture of herbs and some of those knorr stockpots. 5. Add a dash of alcohol (cider is quite good). 6. Simmer the veg for a couple of days (max 2 - 3 hours per day) so that all the goodness goes into the water. 7. Add the meat bones last of all. 8. When all the goodness from the veg and meat is in the broth - keep tasting - and you’ll know, let it cool and stand and skim off the fat as it cools. 9. Take out the bones and give to the hound, if you have one. 10. You can sieve the broth to make it as clear as possible.
Tortellini - get these fresh from a good Italian store (Camisa in Soho is good).
Cook as per previous recipe.
Put in hot broth.
Serve with some grated Parmesan.
The balance between liquid and tortellini is to taste. It is essentially a broth with some tortellini rather than pasta covered in broth, if that helps.
On topic: Alistair (and other people) alluded to mental health problems caused by the isolation of working alone. No one seems to have touched on another common issue - physical health.
Getting up and going to work enforces a schedule - get up at time xxx, arrive at work at 9am, leave at 5pm and get back. For many people they get some exercise but everyone gets to move around somewhat.
Working from home - the kitchen and the fridge is only a few footsteps away. You can even work from your bed. There will be many for whom their physical health suffers.
Discipline!
I have worked from home for years now, as 30k of posts here might suggest. The isolation is real, especially when I was single w no kids. But there is plenty of time to run, cycle, go to to the gym, and more freedom to switch to a healthy diet
When my parents retired I started going there most days for lunch and a cuppa. It is lovely to spend 2-3 afternoons a week with my folks rather than once a fortnight.
It can be done, but it requires a change of mid-set and, as you say, discipline. Sadly there are lots of undisciplined people out there....
Anyway, I need to get out of this bed and pop in to the kitchen
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
I was entertained by the Covid panic this week. I was at the Excel centre down in that London at a big international trade show. Lots of people. Lots of stands. Lots of nibbles goodness being offered to people going past so lots of opportunity for the usual bugs to spread.
Seriously, fuck these people.
Limiting the spread isn't to help them - the chances of an individual getting it is still low enough to be hardly worth worrying about, and if you're not sick or elderly it probably won't be too bad even if you get it. But if everyone acts like them it will spread until it is worth each individual worrying about it, and they'll pass it on to sick or elderly people and literally kill them.
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
worrying..
The test looks for the dna of covid 19 and is accurate to about 100 strands.
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
worrying..
The test looks for the dna of covid 19 and is accurate to about 100 strands.
Thanks - does that mean light infections could give false negatives?
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
The British couple who are recovering in a Japanese hospital have said you now have to have 2 negative tests before they will be any chance of release.
Lots of talk about Labour leadership voting papers not going out. Put a tiny sum on RLB at 17 (19 with boost) on the basis of that. All else being equal it should be Starmer, but still...
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
The British couple who are recovering in a Japanese hospital have said you now have to have 2 negative tests before they will be any chance of release.
Lots of talk about Labour leadership voting papers not going out. Put a tiny sum on RLB at 17 (19 with boost) on the basis of that. All else being equal it should be Starmer, but still...
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
worrying..
The test looks for the dna of covid 19 and is accurate to about 100 strands.
Thanks - does that mean light infections could give false negatives?
There are certainly numerous reports of false negatives - but considering the number of tests deployed in a great rush, that could just as likely be problems with individual kits, or poor testing procedure.
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
worrying..
The test looks for the dna of covid 19 and is accurate to about 100 strands.
Thanks - does that mean light infections could give false negatives?
There are certainly numerous reports of false negatives - but considering the number of tests deployed in a great rush, that could just as likely be problems with individual kits, or poor testing procedure.
I would presume that is the case and that early testing procedures are actually only 9x % accurate.
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
“Can be”. In most cases it will likely be shorter than that, but tests have certainly shown it can persist on glass and metal for that long in favourable conditions.
No doubt there will be more data being gathered, as this is likely one of the most important metrics for controlling the virus.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
Nothing to do with locking 60 million people in their homes for a month?
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
Nothing to do with locking 60 million people in their homes for a month?
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
Nothing to do with locking 60 million people in their homes for a month?
Isn't it slowing outside Hubei/Wuhan?
But in other areas they still have massive restrictions e.g. I read 200+ million kids aren't at school.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
That’s not what their (or the Korean) testing suggested. Though there’s a degree of uncertainty in that. I think it is more that because this thing is spread very largely by touch, the right public health measures can bring down the rate of transmission to a point where new infections fall off quite rapidly.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
The British couple who are recovering in a Japanese hospital have said you now have to have 2 negative tests before they will be any chance of release.
Vaguely related but CNN made the observation that the “number of tests” figure being published in the US isn’t the number of people tested, as you might casually conclude, but what it says - the number of tests. And often a ‘test’ on one person comprises a nose swab, and a throat swab - in in their data counts as two tests.
Not to mention that recently completed was the transitioning of all pilots licenses from the old JAA to the new EASA ones, which (along with the extra admin - such as getting someone to certify you could speak English, and the higher fees) were sold to pilots on the basis that they were for life and hence it was a once- off exercise. Presumably now whatever replaces the EASA licence in the UK will mean every commercial and GA pilot having to go through another licensing exercise again.
Well given the news in Italy, I have taken the decision from next week to exclusively work from home (I do so mostly anyway) and insist on meetings to be done via Skype.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
How many days until they're overwhelmed? Their number of patients needing ICU beds doubles about every 2.6 days. So 1 or 2? Then it starts to get ugly.
Hooking onto Alastair's discussion of working practices. Unfortunately the Government have just made the 'working from home' option far less likely with the IR35 rule changes. Because they pass the responsibility for deciding who is a Contractor from the individual to the end user Company, many companies have simply decided to not take the chance and put everyone inside IR35.
In the oil industry the latest assessment is this has resulted in an immediate drop of 25-30% in specialist engineers with many deciding to retire rather than get sucked into employment. The vast majority of those were already working from home and oil companies are now finding they cannot replace them.
This will be the pattern right across the private sector. Companies have a built in antipathy to employees working from home and I can't see this being changed as easily as some people seem to think.
Though there are some suggestions it persists on surfaces much less above 20C.
One of those times it's worth actually reading the paper, not just the abstract - their results do actually find the expected relationship with humidity and temperature like Charles mentioned. Bad news was that it suggested exponential growth could be sustained even when climate conditions are more in our favour. Still an added incentive to postpone the epidemic as deep as possible into spring/summer.
I was entertained by the Covid panic this week. I was at the Excel centre down in that London at a big international trade show. Lots of people. Lots of stands. Lots of nibbles goodness being offered to people going past so lots of opportunity for the usual bugs to spread.
Seriously, fuck these people.
Limiting the spread isn't to help them - the chances of an individual getting it is still low enough to be hardly worth worrying about, and if you're not sick or elderly it probably won't be too bad even if you get it. But if everyone acts like them it will spread until it is worth each individual worrying about it, and they'll pass it on to sick or elderly people and literally kill them.
As someone in what must be one of the highest risk groups, yes, can y'all please stop spreading this thing...
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
The British couple who are recovering in a Japanese hospital have said you now have to have 2 negative tests before they will be any chance of release.
Three, I thought ?
Yep. They gent said he had two clear tests but then was found to be positive with a third test so has to start again.
Not sure whether this implies an issue with the tests or the possibility of re-infection?
If you are tested when infected but not yet showing symptoms the test should still find you to be positive.
It would be great if that was true but I'm sure it isn't - the evacuation flights from China and also the cruise ship had cases where people were tested negative, sent home and later developed symptoms and tested positive.
The British couple who are recovering in a Japanese hospital have said you now have to have 2 negative tests before they will be any chance of release.
Three, I thought ?
Yep. They gent said he had two clear tests but then was found to be positive with a third test so has to start again.
Not sure whether this implies an issue with the tests or the possibility of re-infection?
I think it is much more likely issue with the tests, given we are talking about weeks since these tests were created.
Some observations. Can’t name the source but came from part of the academic team working with the government via a well connected member of the HoL. This is a summary so any errors are mine 😉
1. It will get worse before it gets better. Government plan based on 20% infection rate. Derived from PHE/LSTHM modelling - but same team also wildly overestimated Ebola. Most likely case is 10-20% but government wanted to plan for the worst reasonable case
2. This is not done strange new superbug. Acting like other coronaviruses. Some elements are novel but all within the range
3. People with bronchial disorders are those at risk. Severity of infection depends entirely on ore-existing conditions and quality of symptomatic care
4. Transmission is *not* airborne but only by large droplets. “Unless some dip-shit sneezes in your face” it will be by surface transmission. Follow recommended mitigation procedures
5. Don’t touch your nose or mouth. Virus is harmless unless it gets to your lungs
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
7. Zinc ( per @Foxy ) is good as it stops viruses multiplying in the nasal passages
8. There are specific reasons why China has been as hard hit as it has. Multiple families living in close proximity. Excessive spitting by makes. Population density and general hygiene issues. These are less significant issues in our culture.
Though there are some suggestions it persists on surfaces much less above 20C.
I read somewhere that the issue is the R number and hence the transition rate, which for normal flu drops below 1.0 in the summer, because the heat and humidity and people spending more time outdoors impede transmission. An R number below 1 means that the epidemic is reducing. Corona too is expected to have a lower R number in the summer, but because it starts with a much higher base, being contagious, it is likely that even in the summer the R will be above 1.0. Hence it is possible that the rate of growth slows, but doesn’t go into reverse.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
Some observations. Can’t name the source but came from part of the academic team working with the government via a well connected member of the HoL. This is a summary so any errors are mine 😉
1. It will get worse before it gets better. Government plan based on 20% infection rate. Derived from PHE/LSTHM modelling - but same team also wildly overestimated Ebola. Most likely case is 10-20% but government wanted to plan for the worst reasonable case
2. This is not done strange new superbug. Acting like other coronaviruses. Some elements are novel but all within the range
3. People with bronchial disorders are those at risk. Severity of infection depends entirely on ore-existing conditions and quality of symptomatic care
4. Transmission is *not* airborne but only by large droplets. “Unless some dip-shit sneezes in your face” it will be by surface transmission. Follow recommended mitigation procedures
5. Don’t touch your nose or mouth. Virus is harmless unless it gets to your lungs
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
7. Zinc ( per @Foxy ) is good as it stops viruses multiplying in the nasal passages
8. There are specific reasons why China has been as hard hit as it has. Multiple families living in close proximity. Excessive spitting by makes. Population density and general hygiene issues. These are less significant issues in our culture.
Though there are some suggestions it persists on surfaces much less above 20C.
I read somewhere that the issue is the R number and hence the transition rate, which for normal flu drops below 1.0 in the summer, because the heat and humidity and people spending more time outdoors impede transmission. An R number below 1 means that the epidemic is reducing. Corona too is expected to have a lower R number in the summer, but because it starts with a much higher base, being contagious, it is likely that even in the summer the R will be above 1.0. Hence it is possible that the rate of growth slows, but doesn’t go into reverse.
We are working on the Chinese R rate in ground zero (before lockdown), where obviously very high density living, widespread spitting, poor general hygiene practices and no knowledge that precautions needed to be taken.
Spain has now confirmed 589 cases of the coronavirus - a rise of 159 from Saturday - along with 13 deaths, the Guardian’s Sam Jones reports from Madrid
Creamy smoked salmon sauces on pasta is not something which was offered in Palazzo Cyclefree when I was growing up. I suspect it is like those Indian dishes that have nothing to do with India at all.
Pasta and fish is a wonderful combination with good olive oil. Cheese is unnecessary.
Fresh Parmesan with figs and prosciutto crude is magnificent. I simply could not live without cheese, Parmesan most of all.
Italians are convinced cheese and fish/shellfish don’t mix.
One thing Alastair did not mention was religious practices.
Communal activity lies at the heart of the world’s largest religions, and this thing might mean dramatic changes. As TSE noted, the Hajj has not been suspended for over a millennium....
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Since you’ve been predicting a 70-80% infection rate and two million dead for the UK, for you that is a modest one for Italy, despite their worse starting point.
Isn't that just changing the names though, with planes still based at RAF Lossiemouth? Thus leaving open the question of who pays (and what the new air force is called).
AP missions use the aircraft of various nations on rotation. Poland are doing Baltic AP now with F-16Cs. Norway are covering Iceland with F-35As.
Iceland get theirs for free because of their strategic location. Scotland would be in a similar position given the strategic importance of the GIUK gap.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
I think the big message the UK government need to start to get out is 14 days in self-isolation means 14 days. Just because you feel a bit better that doesn't mean popping down Tesco's for a nice bar of chocolate.
I would have tv and social media days demonstrating just how many people / things you could infect if you do that, even just popping down to the local corner shop.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Eadric (spellcheck wants to make him Eardrum...) is assuming public health measures have minimal impact. That is just silly, as you point out.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
Parliament’s sleaze watchdog has launched an investigation into Boris Johnson and the mystery over who funded his recent luxury Caribbean holiday, the Observer has learned.
Prompting fresh questions over the prime minister’s probity, the parliamentary commissioner for standards decided last week to pursue an official inquiry into Johnson amid unanswered questions over the identity of the donor who lent him a property on the island of Mustique over new year. It is the first time a serving prime minister has been investigated by the commissioner, who is responsible for regulating MPs’ conduct and propriety.
The development means that three high-level inquiries are under way into allegations surrounding Johnson’s conduct, including his relationship with US businesswoman Jennifer Arcuri. A source with intimate knowledge of the most recent inquiry, but who requested anonymity, said: “These are serious issues which need to be properly investigated.”
Translation : a Labour MP made a complaint and they said they’d have a look
Creamy smoked salmon sauces on pasta is not something which was offered in Palazzo Cyclefree when I was growing up. I suspect it is like those Indian dishes that have nothing to do with India at all.
Pasta and fish is a wonderful combination with good olive oil. Cheese is unnecessary.
Fresh Parmesan with figs and prosciutto crude is magnificent. I simply could not live without cheese, Parmesan most of all.
Italians are convinced cheese and fish/shellfish don’t mix.
Thanks for the article Alastair. As usual, well researched, well argued, and thought provoking.
I'm not sure about using Braudel to support the view this crisis marks the transition of power to China. Braudel thought inevitable long-term trends were more important than individuals and events. I can see why his view would be that China's rise to dominance is unstoppable.
But neither the UK's and US' rises to predominance were certain. In the 18th Century, the UK could have lost wars (or the 45 Jacobite rebellion could have succeeded) meaning we remained, as in the 17th Century, a middling power. Landed interest predominated in Parliament and it was only when pro-business (helped by nobility who had a stake in promoting new industries) gained undue influence in Parliament that the Industrial Revolution began.
The same goes for the United States. Arguably, the US was in a weaker relative position to the UK at the start of 1939 than in 1914. The UK had come out of depression earlier and had a predominant position in world trade due to its imperial links and long established positions in markets such as South America and Asia. The US, on the other hand, was in a rut, with a limited recovery in investment and an unemployment rate in the high-teens. It also had a very strong isolationist bent. There were no signs in 1939 it would pull out of that state soon.
What set the US path to dominance was WW II as (1) it pulled the economy out of recession and massively boosted production (2) recovery brought massive opportunities for US firms as it was the only major power that had not suffered significant damage to its infrastructure and (3) it led to the collapse of the the British/French imperial / quasi-imperial trading blocs, enabling US companies to massively expand their reach (the Middle East, South America, Asia etc). If WW II had not happened, the UK would probably still be the leading power.
I also think we are over-emphasising the long-term effects of Corona-19 on human society. Humans are humans. They like social events, socialising, attending sporting events etc. I don't see how that changes given human needs.
Where I can see a permanent change occurring is in the idea countries need to be more self-sufficient / have greater control. Expect more emphasis on bringing processes closer to home and a greater demand from populations for governments to be allowed to enact measures to protect their citizens and interests. Greenpeace is now saying Brexit is an opportunity to ban huge trawling ships in UK waters to protect fishing stocks.
So I think the biggest loser from all of this will be China. It emphasises free trade and open borders because it helps China's relative long-term rise against the US. If that reverses, and companies return processes homes, China faces the risk of export-facing industries collapsing and significant unemployment / strains on its business model. Corona could be the thing that stops China in its tracks.
Having visited the Abbeydale Tesco Superstore, Archer Road Sainsburys, and the Waitrose on Ecclesall Road this morning, I can confirm that there are no shortages in Sheffield, apart from some hand gel in all three stores and Waitrose own brand pasta was looking very light.
Fortunately for us, my father always buys like a doomsday prepper, so we weren't after much.
Having visited the Abbeydale Tesco Superstore, Archer Road Sainsburys, and the Waitrose on Ecclesall Road this morning, I can confirm that there are no shortages in Sheffield, apart from some hand gel in all three stores and Waitrose own brand pasta was looking very light.
Fortunately for us, my father always buys like a doomsday prepper, so we weren't after much.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
To quote Contagion: Nobody can know until everyone knows.
Out of interest, what do we think that the first signs of a UK quarantine will be? Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report.
Perhaps army vehicle movements on the roads? The odd crank on twitter?
Having visited the Abbeydale Tesco Superstore, Archer Road Sainsburys, and the Waitrose on Ecclesall Road this morning, I can confirm that there are no shortages in Sheffield, apart from some hand gel in all three stores and Waitrose own brand pasta was looking very light.
Fortunately for us, my father always buys like a doomsday prepper, so we weren't after much.
Didn't go to Asda or Morrisons? :-)
TSE is a working class boy. He only shops in cheapo places.
Having visited the Abbeydale Tesco Superstore, Archer Road Sainsburys, and the Waitrose on Ecclesall Road this morning, I can confirm that there are no shortages in Sheffield, apart from some hand gel in all three stores and Waitrose own brand pasta was looking very light.
Fortunately for us, my father always buys like a doomsday prepper, so we weren't after much.
Didn't go to Asda or Morrisons? :-)
They are bit too plebeian for me. Plus the last time I went to the Asda in Handsworth I saw Jared O'Mara.
So - I was in Asda this morning and one of my lad's was buying socks.
A customer said to him "good idea, get them whilst you still can"
TBH socks is not something I would be worried about :-)
More fool you. A shortage of socks caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Well, OK, there were a few other factors involved. But the most visible sign of the economic crisis was, in the words of one member of the Supreme Soviet, ‘We needed coupons to buy socks. There weren’t even any socks to begin with.’)
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
To quote Contagion: Nobody can know until everyone knows.
Out of interest, what do we think that the first signs of a UK quarantine will be? Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report.
Perhaps army vehicle movements on the roads? The odd crank on twitter?
Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report
Then how is it going to let anyone know there is a quarantine? In any event there is no legal authority to enforce a DSMA, it's effectively guidance, none of the five categories of notice cover a quarantine situation - https://dsma.uk/standing-notices/
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Except...not God, but the internet will save us. The timid will be so shit scared of what they read here from you that they will hide until the all clear. And then some.
The sensible will mostly hide, but wash their hands like performing a religious rite. Unless someone sneezes over them - or they get drunk and forget - they'll be fine.
The criminal element will steal the hand sanitizer from hospitals and be fine amid their mass of shoplifted bog-roll.
Pretty much nobody will go abroad until the all clear. And then some.
The "yeah yeah whatever" brigade - the mostly young blase - will catch it, have a nasty shock, recover, then wear a tee shirt about how they bested the beast. This section contains very few of those at risk because, you know, over a life-time they have learnt not to take twattish risks with things that might kill them.
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
To quote Contagion: Nobody can know until everyone knows.
Out of interest, what do we think that the first signs of a UK quarantine will be? Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report.
Perhaps army vehicle movements on the roads? The odd crank on twitter?
Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report
Then how is it going to let anyone know there is a quarantine? In any event there is no legal authority to enforce a DSMA, it's effectively guidance, none of the five categories of notice cover a quarantine situation - https://dsma.uk/standing-notices/
Morning Doug
do you not think this will all be superseded by the use of the CCA? I have been extremely critical of that legislation given how far reaching it is but it seems that if there was ever a circumstance for it genuinely being needed and used then this is it.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
I fail to see any hysteria in my comments, whatsoever. I’m using the maths and the science. My language may be colourful, “a medieval tragedy” - but it is not hysterical - “a state of ungovernable emotional excess”.
Right now I’m lying in bed contemplating another pot of tea.
To be fair though Black Death had a 40 to 80% death rate, over ten times that of coronavirus
On topic the government seem to dialling down the expectations of doom.
Ministers are preparing for a potential coronavirus death toll as high as 100,000 as they try to brace the country for months of upheaval without spreading panic.
Boris Johnson will chair his second meeting of the Cobra emergency committee tomorrow, where medical experts are expected to recommend that the government move formally into the second “delay” phase of the government’s response.
That could lead to more people working from home and fewer public gatherings.
Officials in Whitehall last week began describing a 100,000 figure as the “central estimate” of the potential death toll, according to a source involved in the preparations, rather than the previously publicised worst case scenario of 500,000 deaths if 80% of the population were infected....
...The total number has not been circulated to town hall leaders to prevent panic. But a second official said the “ballpark” figure for expected deaths across all councils was “in the region of 100,000”. That includes those likely to die from seasonal flu, which averaged 17,000 over the past five years.
One official who has been involved in the planning said: “The central estimate of deaths is about 100,000. Everyone has been focusing on the worst case but this is what the experts actually expect to happen. Some of those people would have died of other flus.”
The figure is just under half the number of British deaths to Spanish flu in 1918, the worst modern pandemic. Covid-19 has already infected 80,000 people in China, killing more than 3,000 of its population of almost 1.4 billion. Italy, with a 60 million population, has suffered more than 200 deaths from some 5,800 cases. The UK had 209 cases by last night with two deaths.
A cabinet minister confirmed that the 100,000 figure was considered “about right” by experts. Downing Street did not contest the total.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Except...not God, but the internet will save us. The timid will be so shit scared of what they read here from you that they will hide until the all clear. And then some.
The sensible will mostly hide, but wash their hands like performing a religious rite. Unless someone sneezes over them - or they get drunk and forget - they'll be fine.
The criminal element will steal the hand sanitizer from hospitals and be fine amid their mass of shoplifted bog-roll.
Pretty much nobody will go abroad until the all clear. And then some.
The "yeah yeah whatever" brigade - the mostly young blase - will catch it, have a nasty shock, recover, then wear a tee shirt about how they bested the beast. This section contains very few of those at risk because, you know, over a life-time they have learnt not to take twattish risks with things that might kill them.
We'll be OK.
Yes that’s my big hope. The shock will be so intense all behaviour will change.
And yet, judging by some on here - and PBers are more intelligent than most - this is “just a bad flu”, so I wonder what it will actually take to ram the message home.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
I fail to see any hysteria in my comments, whatsoever. I’m using the maths and the science. My language may be colourful, “a medieval tragedy” - but it is not hysterical - “a state of ungovernable emotional excess”.
Right now I’m lying in bed contemplating another pot of tea.
To be fair though Black Death had a 40 to 80% death rate, over ten times that of coronavirus
Have you seen some of the vids out of Iran and Hubei? They are literally digging plague pits. Doesn’t get much more medieval than that.
Well people will still die with a 3% global average death rate from coronavirus and more in less developed countries like Iran but it is still well below the Black Death death rate
Thanks for the article Alastair. As usual, well researched, well argued, and thought provoking.
I'm not sure about using Braudel to support the view this crisis marks the transition of power to China. Braudel thought inevitable long-term trends were more important than individuals and events. I can see why his view would be that China's rise to dominance is unstoppable.
But neither the UK's and US' rises to predominance were certain. In the 18th Century, the UK could have lost wars (or the 45 Jacobite rebellion could have succeeded) meaning we remained, as in the 17th Century, a middling power. Landed interest predominated in Parliament and it was only when pro-business (helped by nobility who had a stake in promoting new industries) gained undue influence in Parliament that the Industrial Revolution began.
The same goes for the United States. Arguably, the US was in a weaker relative position to the UK at the start of 1939 than in 1914. The UK had come out of depression earlier and had a predominant position in world trade due to its imperial links and long established positions in markets such as South America and Asia. The US, on the other hand, was in a rut, with a limited recovery in investment and an unemployment rate in the high-teens. It also had a very strong isolationist bent. There were no signs in 1939 it would pull out of that state soon.
What set the US path to dominance was WW II as (1) it pulled the economy out of recession and massively boosted production (2) recovery brought massive opportunities for US firms as it was the only major power that had not suffered significant damage to its infrastructure and (3) it led to the collapse of the the British/French imperial / quasi-imperial trading blocs, enabling US companies to massively expand their reach (the Middle East, South America, Asia etc). If WW II had not happened, the UK would probably still be the leading power.
I also think we are over-emphasising the long-term effects of Corona-19 on human society. Humans are humans. They like social events, socialising, attending sporting events etc. I don't see how that changes given human needs.
Where I can see a permanent change occurring is in the idea countries need to be more self-sufficient / have greater control. Expect more emphasis on bringing processes closer to home and a greater demand from populations for governments to be allowed to enact measures to protect their citizens and interests. Greenpeace is now saying Brexit is an opportunity to ban huge trawling ships in UK waters to protect fishing stocks.
So I think the biggest loser from all of this will be China. It emphasises free trade and open borders because it helps China's relative long-term rise against the US. If that reverses, and companies return processes homes, China faces the risk of export-facing industries collapsing and significant unemployment / strains on its business model. Corona could be the thing that stops China in its tracks.
I don't agree with your verdict about when 'crossover' between the US and UK happened. After WW1 we stopped being the lender of last resort; that is widely acknowledged as the 'formal' transition, and we reached our industrial zenith and were then in relative industrial decline vs. competitors after 1850. WW2 finished us off as a great power, not *the* great power.
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
To quote Contagion: Nobody can know until everyone knows.
Out of interest, what do we think that the first signs of a UK quarantine will be? Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report.
Perhaps army vehicle movements on the roads? The odd crank on twitter?
Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report
Then how is it going to let anyone know there is a quarantine? In any event there is no legal authority to enforce a DSMA, it's effectively guidance, none of the five categories of notice cover a quarantine situation - https://dsma.uk/standing-notices/
Morning Doug
do you not think this will all be superseded by the use of the CCA? I have been extremely critical of that legislation given how far reaching it is but it seems that if there was ever a circumstance for it genuinely being needed and used then this is it.
It's certainly possible that the Government may make emergency regulations under section 20 of the CCA, but that is different to the use of a DSMA, to the specific point here there would have to be new regulations on the books mandating a media gag. In any event emergency regulations under the CCA can't amend the Human Rights Act 1998 (section 23(5)) and, while the ECHR (incl Art 10) can be circumvented in emergency situations, it would not be all that straightforward.
More pragmatically, the fact we are posting on here shows the utter futility of a DSMA that seeks to limit the spread of information relating to an act that impacts very large groups of people. Even pre-internet, it would be hard, today it would be virtually impossible.
Spain has now confirmed 589 cases of the coronavirus - a rise of 159 from Saturday - along with 13 deaths, the Guardian’s Sam Jones reports from Madrid
Just been out for tapas and people are still double kissing at least on the costa it’s warm enough to be outside now. The death toll amongst ‘ancientes’ is rising rapidly. Interesting to see if people turned up for the day of the woman marches.
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
To quote Contagion: Nobody can know until everyone knows.
Out of interest, what do we think that the first signs of a UK quarantine will be? Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report.
Perhaps army vehicle movements on the roads? The odd crank on twitter?
Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report
Then how is it going to let anyone know there is a quarantine? In any event there is no legal authority to enforce a DSMA, it's effectively guidance, none of the five categories of notice cover a quarantine situation - https://dsma.uk/standing-notices/
I meant as in report before it's announced, which is what happened in Italy, a regional governor leaked it to the press, leading to the stampede to get out. It was meant to be announced in the 2am presser.
Well people will still die with a 3% global average death rate from coronavirus and more in less developed countries like Iran but it is still well below the Black Death death rate
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
To quote Contagion: Nobody can know until everyone knows.
Out of interest, what do we think that the first signs of a UK quarantine will be? Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report.
Perhaps army vehicle movements on the roads? The odd crank on twitter?
Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report
Then how is it going to let anyone know there is a quarantine? In any event there is no legal authority to enforce a DSMA, it's effectively guidance, none of the five categories of notice cover a quarantine situation - https://dsma.uk/standing-notices/
I meant as in report before it's announced, which is what happened in Italy, a regional governor leaked it to the press, leading to the stampede to get out.
I still don't see which of the five categories they could possibly shoehorn it into, which would make it even less likely that our less than reticent press would comply.
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
Thanks for the article Alastair. As usual, well researched, well argued, and thought provoking.
I'm not sure about using Braudel to support the view this crisis marks the transition of power to China. Braudel thought inevitable long-term trends were more important than individuals and events. I can see why his view would be that China's rise to dominance is unstoppable.
But neither the UK's and US' rises to predominance were certain. In the 18th Century, the UK could have lost wars (or the 45 Jacobite rebellion could have succeeded) meaning we remained, as in the 17th Century, a middling power. Landed interest predominated in Parliament and it was only when pro-business (helped by nobility who had a stake in promoting new industries) gained undue influence in Parliament that the Industrial Revolution began.
The same goes for the United States. Arguably, the US was in a weaker relative position to the UK at the start of 1939 than in 1914. The UK had come out of depression earlier and had a predominant position in world trade due to its imperial links and long established positions in markets such as South America and Asia. The US, on the other hand, was in a rut, with a limited recovery in investment and an unemployment rate in the high-teens. It also had a very strong isolationist bent. There were no signs in 1939 it would pull out of that state soon.
What set the US path to dominance was WW II as (1) it pulled the economy out of recession and massively boosted production (2) recovery brought massive opportunities for US firms as it was the only major power that had not suffered significant damage to its infrastructure and (3) it led to the collapse of the the British/French imperial / quasi-imperial trading blocs, enabling US companies to massively expand their reach (the Middle East, South America, Asia etc). If WW II had not happened, the UK would probably still be the leading power.
I also think we are over-emphasising the long-term effects of Corona-19 on human society. Humans are humans. They like social events, socialising, attending sporting events etc. I don't see how that changes given human needs.
Where I can see a permanent change occurring is in the idea countries need to be more self-sufficient / have greater control. Expect more emphasis on bringing processes closer to home and a greater demand from populations for governments to be allowed to enact measures to protect their citizens and interests. Greenpeace is now saying Brexit is an opportunity to ban huge trawling ships in UK waters to protect fishing stocks.
So I think the biggest loser from all of this will be China. It emphasises free trade and open borders because it helps China's relative long-term rise against the US. If that reverses, and companies return processes homes, China faces the risk of export-facing industries collapsing and significant unemployment / strains on its business model. Corona could be the thing that stops China in its tracks.
I don't agree with your verdict about when 'crossover' between the US and UK happened. After WW1 we stopped being the lender of last resort; that is widely acknowledged as the 'formal' transition, and we reached our industrial zenith and were then in relative industrial decline vs. competitors after 1850. WW2 finished us off as a great power, not *the* great power.
The British Disease was well in place before WWI. When a designer at the Admiralty asked for longitudinal framing for a new class of destroyers, a delegation of ship builders and unions requested that he be fired.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
I fail to see any hysteria in my comments, whatsoever. I’m using the maths and the science. My language may be colourful, “a medieval tragedy” - but it is not hysterical - “a state of ungovernable emotional excess”.
Right now I’m lying in bed contemplating another pot of tea.
To be fair though Black Death had a 40 to 80% death rate, over ten times that of coronavirus
Have you seen some of the vids out of Iran and Hubei? They are literally digging plague pits. Doesn’t get much more medieval than that.
Well people will still die with a 3% global average death rate from coronavirus and more in less developed countries like Iran but it is still well below the Black Death death rate
Well that’s alright then! I confess I was slightly worried for a while.
Basically if it’s hard Brexit they are going to ask for “concessions” (aka bribes) but there is too much investment/skill base in the U.K. for it to make sense to relocate
So - I was in Asda this morning and one of my lad's was buying socks.
A customer said to him "good idea, get them whilst you still can"
TBH socks is not something I would be worried about :-)
More fool you. A shortage of socks caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Well, OK, there were a few other factors involved. But the most visible sign of the economic crisis was, in the words of one member of the Supreme Soviet, ‘We needed coupons to buy socks. There weren’t even any socks to begin with.’)
One afternoon a Russian man went meat shopping.
After 3 hours in the queue he reached the front. No meat. Angry, he started to shout about the shortages.
A stranger in a trench coat approached - "Comrade, be careful. In the old days..." and made a pistol gesture with his hand.
The man went home. His wife found him sitting in the dark, still dressed in his coat.
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
I fail to see any hysteria in my comments, whatsoever. I’m using the maths and the science. My language may be colourful, “a medieval tragedy” - but it is not hysterical - “a state of ungovernable emotional excess”.
Right now I’m lying in bed contemplating another pot of tea.
To be fair though Black Death had a 40 to 80% death rate, over ten times that of coronavirus
Have you seen some of the vids out of Iran and Hubei? They are literally digging plague pits. Doesn’t get much more medieval than that.
This is my beef with you. You spend your waking hours scouring the Internet wanking over every worst case anecdote and prediction you can find, posting them to PB as soon as you find them, sometimes on the basis of the headline alone (in between reading chapters of the book you have bought about the Black Death). Then when you are challenged you claim not to have been predicting imminent doom at all.
Comments
I also note that you've now excluded France from your cherry-picking.
They're at 28 closed cases, 12 recovered, 16 dead. See, we can both do misleading stats!
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/airbus-decides-it-s-grounded-in-britain-lwvkxpk8t
The process is designed to target them to desired areas.
You are claiming the process doesn’t work. It’s on you to provide the evidence.
Broth:-
1.From a proper butcher get some bones: chicken, beef, veal and marrow. Marrow is good because of the fatty content.
2. Get a VERY BIG PAN.
3. Put in equal amounts of carrots, celery and onions, very roughly chopped. And water.
4. Slow boil with a mixture of herbs and some of those knorr stockpots.
5. Add a dash of alcohol (cider is quite good).
6. Simmer the veg for a couple of days (max 2 - 3 hours per day) so that all the goodness goes into the water.
7. Add the meat bones last of all.
8. When all the goodness from the veg and meat is in the broth - keep tasting - and you’ll know, let it cool and stand and skim off the fat as it cools.
9. Take out the bones and give to the hound, if you have one.
10. You can sieve the broth to make it as clear as possible.
Tortellini - get these fresh from a good Italian store (Camisa in Soho is good).
Cook as per previous recipe.
Put in hot broth.
Serve with some grated Parmesan.
The balance between liquid and tortellini is to taste. It is essentially a broth with some tortellini rather than pasta covered in broth, if that helps.
Anyway, I need to get out of this bed and pop in to the kitchen
Limiting the spread isn't to help them - the chances of an individual getting it is still low enough to be hardly worth worrying about, and if you're not sick or elderly it probably won't be too bad even if you get it. But if everyone acts like them it will spread until it is worth each individual worrying about it, and they'll pass it on to sick or elderly people and literally kill them.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-51789355
In most cases it will likely be shorter than that, but tests have certainly shown it can persist on glass and metal for that long in favourable conditions.
No doubt there will be more data being gathered, as this is likely one of the most important metrics for controlling the virus.
It's also prepared for change and has a lot of spare parts in case of delays in shipments (in any direction)..
But that interview was before this https://twitter.com/uk_domain_names/status/1236567978050752514 which probably throws a very big spanner in the works...
I think it is more that because this thing is spread very largely by touch, the right public health measures can bring down the rate of transmission to a point where new infections fall off quite rapidly.
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china
The reason why it slowed in China is because a high-tech authoritarian government made most of the country go into complete lockdown.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/08/national/politics-diplomacy/shinzo-abe-zero-interest-loan-coronavirus-japan/
In the oil industry the latest assessment is this has resulted in an immediate drop of 25-30% in specialist engineers with many deciding to retire rather than get sucked into employment. The vast majority of those were already working from home and oil companies are now finding they cannot replace them.
This will be the pattern right across the private sector. Companies have a built in antipathy to employees working from home and I can't see this being changed as easily as some people seem to think.
A major political row is breaking out in Italy, where the authorities fear people fleeing from Lombardy, formally locked down by decree but still not subject to a full enforcement, may spread the virus further.
If you are going to lock somewhere down, you have to do it there and then.
plenty of bog roll available in LIDL Oakham.
Not sure whether this implies an issue with the tests or the possibility of re-infection?
Spain has now confirmed 589 cases of the coronavirus - a rise of 159 from Saturday - along with 13 deaths, the Guardian’s Sam Jones reports from Madrid
Communal activity lies at the heart of the world’s largest religions, and this thing might mean dramatic changes.
As TSE noted, the Hajj has not been suspended for over a millennium....
I would have tv and social media days demonstrating just how many people / things you could infect if you do that, even just popping down to the local corner shop.
That is just silly, as you point out.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
*hides in the deep bunker....*
I'm not sure about using Braudel to support the view this crisis marks the transition of power to China. Braudel thought inevitable long-term trends were more important than individuals and events. I can see why his view would be that China's rise to dominance is unstoppable.
But neither the UK's and US' rises to predominance were certain. In the 18th Century, the UK could have lost wars (or the 45 Jacobite rebellion could have succeeded) meaning we remained, as in the 17th Century, a middling power. Landed interest predominated in Parliament and it was only when pro-business (helped by nobility who had a stake in promoting new industries) gained undue influence in Parliament that the Industrial Revolution began.
The same goes for the United States. Arguably, the US was in a weaker relative position to the UK at the start of 1939 than in 1914. The UK had come out of depression earlier and had a predominant position in world trade due to its imperial links and long established positions in markets such as South America and Asia. The US, on the other hand, was in a rut, with a limited recovery in investment and an unemployment rate in the high-teens. It also had a very strong isolationist bent. There were no signs in 1939 it would pull out of that state soon.
What set the US path to dominance was WW II as (1) it pulled the economy out of recession and massively boosted production (2) recovery brought massive opportunities for US firms as it was the only major power that had not suffered significant damage to its infrastructure and (3) it led to the collapse of the the British/French imperial / quasi-imperial trading blocs, enabling US companies to massively expand their reach (the Middle East, South America, Asia etc). If WW II had not happened, the UK would probably still be the leading power.
I also think we are over-emphasising the long-term effects of Corona-19 on human society. Humans are humans. They like social events, socialising, attending sporting events etc. I don't see how that changes given human needs.
Where I can see a permanent change occurring is in the idea countries need to be more self-sufficient / have greater control. Expect more emphasis on bringing processes closer to home and a greater demand from populations for governments to be allowed to enact measures to protect their citizens and interests. Greenpeace is now saying Brexit is an opportunity to ban huge trawling ships in UK waters to protect fishing stocks.
So I think the biggest loser from all of this will be China. It emphasises free trade and open borders because it helps China's relative long-term rise against the US. If that reverses, and companies return processes homes, China faces the risk of export-facing industries collapsing and significant unemployment / strains on its business model. Corona could be the thing that stops China in its tracks.
Fortunately for us, my father always buys like a doomsday prepper, so we weren't after much.
So - I was in Asda this morning and one of my lad's was buying socks.
A customer said to him "good idea, get them whilst you still can"
TBH socks is not something I would be worried about :-)
Out of interest, what do we think that the first signs of a UK quarantine will be? Obviously the Govt will issue a DSMA telling the media not to report.
Perhaps army vehicle movements on the roads? The odd crank on twitter?
(Well, OK, there were a few other factors involved. But the most visible sign of the economic crisis was, in the words of one member of the Supreme Soviet, ‘We needed coupons to buy socks. There weren’t even any socks to begin with.’)
Then how is it going to let anyone know there is a quarantine? In any event there is no legal authority to enforce a DSMA, it's effectively guidance, none of the five categories of notice cover a quarantine situation - https://dsma.uk/standing-notices/
The sensible will mostly hide, but wash their hands like performing a religious rite. Unless someone sneezes over them - or they get drunk and forget - they'll be fine.
The criminal element will steal the hand sanitizer from hospitals and be fine amid their mass of shoplifted bog-roll.
Pretty much nobody will go abroad until the all clear. And then some.
The "yeah yeah whatever" brigade - the mostly young blase - will catch it, have a nasty shock, recover, then wear a tee shirt about how they bested the beast. This section contains very few of those at risk because, you know, over a life-time they have learnt not to take twattish risks with things that might kill them.
We'll be OK.
do you not think this will all be superseded by the use of the CCA? I have been extremely critical of that legislation given how far reaching it is but it seems that if there was ever a circumstance for it genuinely being needed and used then this is it.
Ministers are preparing for a potential coronavirus death toll as high as 100,000 as they try to brace the country for months of upheaval without spreading panic.
Boris Johnson will chair his second meeting of the Cobra emergency committee tomorrow, where medical experts are expected to recommend that the government move formally into the second “delay” phase of the government’s response.
That could lead to more people working from home and fewer public gatherings.
Officials in Whitehall last week began describing a 100,000 figure as the “central estimate” of the potential death toll, according to a source involved in the preparations, rather than the previously publicised worst case scenario of 500,000 deaths if 80% of the population were infected....
...The total number has not been circulated to town hall leaders to prevent panic. But a second official said the “ballpark” figure for expected deaths across all councils was “in the region of 100,000”. That includes those likely to die from seasonal flu, which averaged 17,000 over the past five years.
One official who has been involved in the planning said: “The central estimate of deaths is about 100,000. Everyone has been focusing on the worst case but this is what the experts actually expect to happen. Some of those people would have died of other flus.”
The figure is just under half the number of British deaths to Spanish flu in 1918, the worst modern pandemic. Covid-19 has already infected 80,000 people in China, killing more than 3,000 of its population of almost 1.4 billion. Italy, with a 60 million population, has suffered more than 200 deaths from some 5,800 cases. The UK had 209 cases by last night with two deaths.
A cabinet minister confirmed that the 100,000 figure was considered “about right” by experts. Downing Street did not contest the total.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-boris-johnson-keeps-calm-but-whitehall-plans-for-worst-2mzg9q22q
Or Ushuaia - proudly proclaiming itself "Fin del Mundo".....
More pragmatically, the fact we are posting on here shows the utter futility of a DSMA that seeks to limit the spread of information relating to an act that impacts very large groups of people. Even pre-internet, it would be hard, today it would be virtually impossible.
https://www.secretprojects.co.uk/threads/bristol-159.29457/ shows the construction of one such (for the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber project) before WWII.
The afternoon thread discusses classical history, tune in, it will help educate you.
Also contains a pun that @ydoethur would be proud of.
Basically if it’s hard Brexit they are going to ask for “concessions” (aka bribes) but there is too much investment/skill base in the U.K. for it to make sense to relocate
After 3 hours in the queue he reached the front. No meat. Angry, he started to shout about the shortages.
A stranger in a trench coat approached - "Comrade, be careful. In the old days..." and made a pistol gesture with his hand.
The man went home. His wife found him sitting in the dark, still dressed in his coat.
"What's the matter dear? No meat?
"Worse - they've run out of bullets."