So - I was in Asda this morning and one of my lad's was buying socks.
A customer said to him "good idea, get them whilst you still can"
TBH socks is not something I would be worried about :-)
More fool you. A shortage of socks caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Well, OK, there were a few other factors involved. But the most visible sign of the economic crisis was, in the words of one member of the Supreme Soviet, ‘We needed coupons to buy socks. There weren’t even any socks to begin with.’)
One afternoon a Russian man went meat shopping.
After 3 hours in the queue he reached the front. No meat. Angry, he started to shout about the shortages.
A stranger in a trench coat approached - "Comrade, be careful. In the old days..." and made a pistol gesture with his hand.
The man went home. His wife found him sitting in the dark, still dressed in his coat.
"What's the matter dear? No meat?
"Worse - they've run out of bullets."
Russian guy asks the shopkeeper, “you don’t have any meat, do you?”.
Shopkeeper replies, “no, we don’t have any fish. The shop that doesn’t have any meat is across the street.”
1.From a proper butcher get some bones: chicken, beef, veal and marrow. Marrow is good because of the fatty content. 2. Get a VERY BIG PAN. 3. Put in equal amounts of carrots, celery and onions, very roughly chopped. And water. 4. Slow boil with a mixture of herbs and some of those knorr stockpots. 5. Add a dash of alcohol (cider is quite good). 6. Simmer the veg for a couple of days (max 2 - 3 hours per day) so that all the goodness goes into the water. 7. Add the meat bones last of all. 8. When all the goodness from the veg and meat is in the broth - keep tasting - and you’ll know, let it cool and stand and skim off the fat as it cools. 9. Take out the bones and give to the hound, if you have one. 10. You can sieve the broth to make it as clear as possible.
Tortellini - get these fresh from a good Italian store (Camisa in Soho is good).
Cook as per previous recipe.
Put in hot broth.
Serve with some grated Parmesan.
The balance between liquid and tortellini is to taste. It is essentially a broth with some tortellini rather than pasta covered in broth, if that helps.
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
“Can be”. In most cases it will likely be shorter than that, but tests have certainly shown it can persist on glass and metal for that long in favourable conditions.
No doubt there will be more data being gathered, as this is likely one of the most important metrics for controlling the virus.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
I fail to see any hysteria in my comments, whatsoever. I’m using the maths and the science. My language may be colourful, “a medieval tragedy” - but it is not hysterical - “a state of ungovernable emotional excess”.
Right now I’m lying in bed contemplating another pot of tea.
To be fair though Black Death had a 40 to 80% death rate, over ten times that of coronavirus
Have you seen some of the vids out of Iran and Hubei? They are literally digging plague pits. Doesn’t get much more medieval than that.
This is my beef with you. You spend your waking hours scouring the Internet wanking over every worst case anecdote and prediction you can find, posting them to PB as soon as you find them, sometimes on the basis of the headline alone (in between reading chapters of the book you have bought about the Black Death). Then when you are challenged you claim not to have been predicting imminent doom at all.
Well people will still die with a 3% global average death rate from coronavirus and more in less developed countries like Iran but it is still well below the Black Death death rate
Well that’s alright then! I confess I was slightly worried for a while.
If the plague was wiping us out HYUFD would be on here saying "30% dead is well below the Toba catastrophe which killed over 90% of the human race".
Eadric keeps punching against a phantom. Nobody on here is disputing the gravity of the epidemic, it’s just some of us refuse to panic and predict the end of civilisation.
I think the only person in denial was HYUFD who was advocating BROTH last week to victims. However HYUFD is best ignored anyway, he does not constitute all of PB.
So - I was in Asda this morning and one of my lad's was buying socks.
A customer said to him "good idea, get them whilst you still can"
TBH socks is not something I would be worried about :-)
More fool you. A shortage of socks caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Well, OK, there were a few other factors involved. But the most visible sign of the economic crisis was, in the words of one member of the Supreme Soviet, ‘We needed coupons to buy socks. There weren’t even any socks to begin with.’)
One afternoon a Russian man went meat shopping.
After 3 hours in the queue he reached the front. No meat. Angry, he started to shout about the shortages.
A stranger in a trench coat approached - "Comrade, be careful. In the old days..." and made a pistol gesture with his hand.
The man went home. His wife found him sitting in the dark, still dressed in his coat.
"What's the matter dear? No meat?
"Worse - they've run out of bullets."
A man in a Moscow queue for pasta in the dog days of the USSR suddenly exploded with anger. ‘I’m sick of this f***ing queueing, I’m going to go and f***ing shoot that useless f***er Gorbachev.’ He runs off and everyone pretends they haven’t heard anything.
Ten minutes later, he comes back and rejoins the queue. One brave soul pipes up, ‘I thought you were off to shoot Gorbachev?’
‘I tried,’ said the angry man. ‘But the queue to shoot him was even longer than this one.’
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
I fail to see any hysteria in my comments, whatsoever. I’m using the maths and the science. My language may be colourful, “a medieval tragedy” - but it is not hysterical - “a state of ungovernable emotional excess”.
Right now I’m lying in bed contemplating another pot of tea.
To be fair though Black Death had a 40 to 80% death rate, over ten times that of coronavirus
Have you seen some of the vids out of Iran and Hubei? They are literally digging plague pits. Doesn’t get much more medieval than that.
This is my beef with you. You spend your waking hours scouring the Internet wanking over every worst case anecdote and prediction you can find, posting them to PB as soon as you find them, sometimes on the basis of the headline alone (in between reading chapters of the book you have bought about the Black Death). Then when you are challenged you claim not to have been predicting imminent doom at all.
I’ve gone beyond giving the tiniest of f*cks what you think. I get it: You’re scared, you can’t cope, get a grip. I shall simply ignore every single thing you say from now on. You should probably do the same to me.
It would be better if you didn’t try to project your emotional inadequacy onto other PB’ers.
If millions die in the UK, you can at least claim to have been vindicated, even though the panic you have tried to stir up and the obvious enjoyment you have derived from the storyline don’t reflect well on your character.
If the government’s central case proves correct and we are talking about a death rate within an order of magnitude of the worst flu outbreaks previously, then the nonsense you have posted to this forum will be seen to have been reprehensible. And you will deserve to be castigated for it until the end of time - as, to be fair, you yourself have already conceded.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
You were predicting millions dead and the collapse of civilisation
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Since you’ve been predicting a 70-80% infection rate and two million dead for the UK, for you that is a modest one for Italy, despite their worse starting point.
This is beyond boring. I have said throughout that expert predictions range from 20%-80%, and they do. Here are some.
So - I was in Asda this morning and one of my lad's was buying socks.
A customer said to him "good idea, get them whilst you still can"
TBH socks is not something I would be worried about :-)
More fool you. A shortage of socks caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Well, OK, there were a few other factors involved. But the most visible sign of the economic crisis was, in the words of one member of the Supreme Soviet, ‘We needed coupons to buy socks. There weren’t even any socks to begin with.’)
One afternoon a Russian man went meat shopping.
After 3 hours in the queue he reached the front. No meat. Angry, he started to shout about the shortages.
A stranger in a trench coat approached - "Comrade, be careful. In the old days..." and made a pistol gesture with his hand.
The man went home. His wife found him sitting in the dark, still dressed in his coat.
"What's the matter dear? No meat?
"Worse - they've run out of bullets."
A man in a Moscow queue for pasta in the dog days of the USSR suddenly exploded with anger. ‘I’m sick of this f***ing queueing, I’m going to go and f***ing shoot that useless f***er Gorbachev.’ He runs off and everyone pretends they haven’t heard anything.
Ten minutes later, he comes back and rejoins the queue. One brave soul pipes up, ‘I thought you were off to shoot Gorbachev?’
‘I tried,’ said the angry man. ‘But the queue to shoot him was even longer than this one.’
A man reading the paper explodes in anger. His wife looks up.
"With all the 5 year plans, the only thing we have succeeded in over producing is nuclear reactor meltdowns."
So - I was in Asda this morning and one of my lad's was buying socks.
A customer said to him "good idea, get them whilst you still can"
TBH socks is not something I would be worried about :-)
More fool you. A shortage of socks caused the collapse of the Soviet Union.
(Well, OK, there were a few other factors involved. But the most visible sign of the economic crisis was, in the words of one member of the Supreme Soviet, ‘We needed coupons to buy socks. There weren’t even any socks to begin with.’)
One afternoon a Russian man went meat shopping.
After 3 hours in the queue he reached the front. No meat. Angry, he started to shout about the shortages.
A stranger in a trench coat approached - "Comrade, be careful. In the old days..." and made a pistol gesture with his hand.
The man went home. His wife found him sitting in the dark, still dressed in his coat.
"What's the matter dear? No meat?
"Worse - they've run out of bullets."
A man in a Moscow queue for pasta in the dog days of the USSR suddenly exploded with anger. ‘I’m sick of this f***ing queueing, I’m going to go and f***ing shoot that useless f***er Gorbachev.’ He runs off and everyone pretends they haven’t heard anything.
Ten minutes later, he comes back and rejoins the queue. One brave soul pipes up, ‘I thought you were off to shoot Gorbachev?’
‘I tried,’ said the angry man. ‘But the queue to shoot him was even longer than this one.’
A man reading the paper explodes in anger. His wife looks up.
"With all the 5 year plans, the only thing we have succeeded in over producing is nuclear reactor meltdowns."
Is it true that all members of the Ukrainian Praesidium committed suicide after Chernobyl?
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
You were predicting millions dead and the collapse of civilisation
About two weeks ago you were scoffing at me and saying it’s nothing to worry about. You were one of the most ludicrous Don’t Panickers.
Whatever. We’re all in this together now. Bickering isn’t going to help. I wish you well.
Three or four weeks ago you were telling us that the virus would be “contagious but benign” and that death rates of 2% were overinflated and 0.2% would be closer to the mark.
When I suggested selling the world’s stock markets (as I did) your only response was to suggest that Trump’s re-election was now “guaranteed” as he liked borders and disliked China.
What happened in mid February to flip you into such a panic?
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Since you’ve been predicting a 70-80% infection rate and two million dead for the UK, for you that is a modest one for Italy, despite their worse starting point.
This is beyond boring. I have said throughout that expert predictions range from 20%-80%, and they do. Here are some.
The U.K. is planning based on 20% which is seen as a conservative approach
Our 20% is interesting. I have no doubt that it could hold that low (or even substantially lower) if the right measures were put in place. However those right measures include some pretty extreme stuff, including making the most of being a couple of islands.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Since you’ve been predicting a 70-80% infection rate and two million dead for the UK, for you that is a modest one for Italy, despite their worse starting point.
This is beyond boring. I have said throughout that expert predictions range from 20%-80%, and they do. Here are some.
The U.K. is planning based on 20% which is seen as a conservative approach
Our 20% is interesting. I have no doubt that it could hold that low (or even substantially lower) if the right measures were put in place. However those right measures include some pretty extreme stuff, including making the most of being a couple of islands.
The first rule is, Never Refuse a Fortunate Advantage.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
You were predicting millions dead and the collapse of civilisation
About two weeks ago you were scoffing at me and saying it’s nothing to worry about. You were one of the most ludicrous Don’t Panickers.
Whatever. We’re all in this together now. Bickering isn’t going to help. I wish you well.
But dont panic was and is still right. Prepare yes. Wash hands yes. Maybe cancel travel and dont book new travel. Panic no. It is counter productive, after washing hands good sleep is right up there in practical steps we can take to avoid the virus. Spreading hyper anxiety and panic is clearly bad for that.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Since you’ve been predicting a 70-80% infection rate and two million dead for the UK, for you that is a modest one for Italy, despite their worse starting point.
This is beyond boring. I have said throughout that expert predictions range from 20%-80%, and they do. Here are some.
The U.K. is planning based on 20% which is seen as a conservative approach
Our 20% is interesting. I have no doubt that it could hold that low (or even substantially lower) if the right measures were put in place. However those right measures include some pretty extreme stuff, including making the most of being a couple of islands.
The first rule is, Never Refuse a Fortunate Advantage.
Indeed. I am incredibly bullish about the UK's potential to mitigate the spread of the virus compared to the US, Italy, and the rest of the continent. We have many advantages (not least being incredibly service based), and should the right decisions be taken we should get off this relatively lightly. On the flipside, if it becomes endemic then we have a lot to worry about.
A renowned painter gets a commission to paint a picture on the theme “Lenin in Poland”. The central committee meet to inspect the artist’s creation, which when unveiled is, to their surprise, of a man and woman lying together in a large bed.
One of the committee goes up to inspect the painting. “This woman looks like Mrs Lenin”, he exclaims. “But where is Lenin?”
Eadric keeps punching against a phantom. Nobody on here is disputing the gravity of the epidemic, it’s just some of us refuse to panic and predict the end of civilisation.
I think the only person in denial was HYUFD who was advocating BROTH last week to victims. However HYUFD is best ignored anyway, he does not constitute all of PB.
I have never been in 'denial' I have simply pointed out the death rate is 3% according to the WHO, so 97% will survive it if they get it and more if under 50. Most people, especially younger people, with the virus will not need hospital treatment and are indeed best off in bed with hot broth.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Since you’ve been predicting a 70-80% infection rate and two million dead for the UK, for you that is a modest one for Italy, despite their worse starting point.
This is beyond boring. I have said throughout that expert predictions range from 20%-80%, and they do. Here are some.
The U.K. is planning based on 20% which is seen as a conservative approach
Our 20% is interesting. I have no doubt that it could hold that low (or even substantially lower) if the right measures were put in place. However those right measures include some pretty extreme stuff, including making the most of being a couple of islands.
What is the Wuhan infection rate? < 10%?
I believe it is, but they did total lockdown, which is still ongoing. Also they poured in health workers: 0.7 per hospital patient. We can’t do that.
Yeah, once the cat gets fully out the bag in the UK we won't be able to do anything, but at the moment it's just popping it's nose out for a sniff. There's just about enough time to pull the drawstring.
The two best measures would be to massively ramp up testing capability, and mobilise the army to quarantine and test all incoming travellers over 3 days, with mandatory reporting back in for testing at 7, 10, and 14 days. As well as testing of every hospital and GP visitor. Tens of thousands of tests a day, if SK can do it, why not us?
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
Both teams’ players were standing in the tunnel at the Stadio Tardini, preparing to start the game behind closed doors, when the referee called them back into the dressing room, having received the call that the minister for sport, Vincenzo Spadafora, and the Italian FA (FIGC) were considering a total suspension of the Serie A season.
Instead, after a 35-minute delay, it was announced the game would go ahead along with, it is assumed, the rest of this weekend’s fixture list. The game kicked off at 12.45pm GMT.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
we'd all be a lot better off if everybody stopped flying
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
Actually it’s 7%, which if my maths is correct is roughly one fourteenth.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
Can you explain why on similar timescale they have under 3000 dead in China with multiple times the population. Stop wobbling like a jelly and use some brain cells.
Because they locked down completely. Stopped almost all economic activity and had a high tech authoritarian government impose mandatory house quarantine for the the affected area. Even now they're imposing draconian restrictions that we couldn't hope to match.
Eadric's predictions may be slightly hysterical, but China is not a viable path for us to follow.
I fail to see any hysteria in my comments, whatsoever. I’m using the maths and the science. My language may be colourful, “a medieval tragedy” - but it is not hysterical - “a state of ungovernable emotional excess”.
Right now I’m lying in bed contemplating another pot of tea.
To be fair though Black Death had a 40 to 80% death rate, over ten times that of coronavirus
Have you seen some of the vids out of Iran and Hubei? They are literally digging plague pits. Doesn’t get much more medieval than that.
This is my beef with you. You spend your waking hours scouring the Internet wanking over every worst case anecdote and prediction you can find, posting them to PB as soon as you find them, sometimes on the basis of the headline alone (in between reading chapters of the book you have bought about the Black Death). Then when you are challenged you claim not to have been predicting imminent doom at all.
I’ve gone beyond giving the tiniest of f*cks what you think. I get it: You’re scared, you can’t cope, get a grip. I shall simply ignore every single thing you say from now on. You should probably do the same to me.
Read my post from earlier today (in the late 300s so about 70% of the way down the thread). That’s a rational position to take.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
we'd all be a lot better off if everybody stopped flying
I am not sure I can afford to take 2 weeks to get to America on a boat for a business trip.
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
“Can be”. In most cases it will likely be shorter than that, but tests have certainly shown it can persist on glass and metal for that long in favourable conditions.
No doubt there will be more data being gathered, as this is likely one of the most important metrics for controlling the virus.
Wipe down your smartphones
Yes, I read that yesterday. Smartphones are one of the biggest dangers. The virus can live on the screens for days, the screens are constantly exposed, we touch them constantly, phones are pretty hard to wash....
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
“Can be”. In most cases it will likely be shorter than that, but tests have certainly shown it can persist on glass and metal for that long in favourable conditions.
No doubt there will be more data being gathered, as this is likely one of the most important metrics for controlling the virus.
Wipe down your smartphones
Yes, I read that yesterday. Smartphones are one of the biggest dangers. The virus can live on the screens for days, the screens are constantly exposed, we touch them constantly, phones are pretty hard to wash....
That’s why I said “wipe down”
One of the benefits of all this could be if people stop handing around their phones to a big group to show pictures of their holidays/pets/kids/cup cakes/whatever and expecting everyone else to be excited by them.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
we'd all be a lot better off if everybody stopped flying
I am not sure I can afford to take 2 weeks to get to America on a boat for a business trip.
Nah, the QM2 could do it in 5 at a push, 6 easily. Trouble is nothing else could....Not that cruise ships have been incubators of the virus....
BTW just heard that today they are having to lock the doors of all rooms in the hospital where my wife works because of people (patients it seems), stealing things: gloves, masks, thermometers, sanitiser, other stuff.
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
“Can be”. In most cases it will likely be shorter than that, but tests have certainly shown it can persist on glass and metal for that long in favourable conditions.
No doubt there will be more data being gathered, as this is likely one of the most important metrics for controlling the virus.
Wipe down your smartphones
Yes, I read that yesterday. Smartphones are one of the biggest dangers. The virus can live on the screens for days, the screens are constantly exposed, we touch them constantly, phones are pretty hard to wash....
That’s why I said “wipe down”
One of the benefits of all this could be if people stop handing around their phones to a big group to show pictures of their holidays/pets/kids/cup cakes/whatever and expecting everyone else to be excited by them.
The 21st Century equivalent of "let me get the projector out and show you my really exciting slides on ..."
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
You were predicting millions dead and the collapse of civilisation
About two weeks ago you were scoffing at me and saying it’s nothing to worry about. You were one of the most ludicrous Don’t Panickers.
Whatever. We’re all in this together now. Bickering isn’t going to help. I wish you well.
If you read my posts at the time I was consistently saying you were producing wrong numbers and projecting scenarios that are very unlikely. You were consistently using the “reasonable worst case” scenario as the base case - which it explicitly isn’t.
I also said it was going to become endemic and probably seasonal. Read Peter Piot’s interview in the Times yesterday.
I find it interesting that PHE has chosen to deploy him at this point.
BTW just heard that today they are having to lock the doors of all rooms in the hospital where my wife works because of people (patients it seems), stealing things: gloves, masks, thermometers, sanitiser, other stuff.
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
I genuinely don't fancy being in London if things really do go south.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
we'd all be a lot better off if everybody stopped flying
I am not sure I can afford to take 2 weeks to get to America on a boat for a business trip.
Nah, the QM2 could do it in 5 at a push, 6 easily. Trouble is nothing else could....Not that cruise ships have been incubators of the virus....
The QM2 is currently leaving Sydney en route for its return to Europe and its transatlantic crossings in the spring. All of its scheduled world cruise stops in Asia have been cancelled for fear of anyone on board contracting the virus.
6. Surfaces can be infected for up to about 7-9 days (some debate). All other coronaviruses hate hot and humid weather... summer should see it subside. They also dislike salty water/air
#6 - 9 days really? That seems an incredibly long time. I thought in general similar virus last at best 2 days.
What does one do in regards to deliveries, especially of food?
“Can be”. In most cases it will likely be shorter than that, but tests have certainly shown it can persist on glass and metal for that long in favourable conditions.
No doubt there will be more data being gathered, as this is likely one of the most important metrics for controlling the virus.
Wipe down your smartphones
Yes, I read that yesterday. Smartphones are one of the biggest dangers. The virus can live on the screens for days, the screens are constantly exposed, we touch them constantly, phones are pretty hard to wash....
"Days" is a rather inflammatory version of 48 hours.
Surgical spirit ... stop panic-mongering and get some nouse.
BTW just heard that today they are having to lock the doors of all rooms in the hospital where my wife works because of people (patients it seems), stealing things: gloves, masks, thermometers, sanitiser, other stuff.
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
I genuinely don't fancy being in London if things really do go south.
Totally O/T...when was the last time a top of premier league club had a totally English midfield? Chelsea are starting with Barkley, Gilmour and Mount today.
This is a toxic argument that damages social integration:
twitter.com/CTrunds/status/1236409161254125570
I have heard her previously also make racist remarks about British Asians...in that she claimed only a certain sort of British Asian voted for Brexit, and then made a derogatory remark about a particular demographic within that community.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
Britain would be a greatly enhanced place if we got an Ash Sakar vs Tommy Robinson debate going on an otherwise empty bus. Then drove that bus straight into the sea.
Britain would be a greatly enhanced place if we got an Ash Sakar vs Tommy Robinson debate going on an otherwise empty bus. Then drove that bus straight into the sea.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
The reason why it slowed in China is because a high-tech authoritarian government made most of the country go into complete lockdown.
The low prevalence in asymptomatic subjects is interesting. It may just be severe quarantining, but I do wonder whether all individuals are equally susceptible. There are examples where people have been in close proximity for some time, yet not infected, while others get infected much more readily. No-one had natural antibodies to this, so I wonder whether there is some as yet unrecognised (genetic?) co-factor for viral replication that some of us have and others do not.
Totally O/T...when was the last time a top of premier league club had a totally English midfield? Chelsea are starting with Barkley, Gilmour and Mount today.
This season Liverpool fielded a midfield of Henderson, Milner. and Oxlade-Chamberlain.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
The reason why it slowed in China is because a high-tech authoritarian government made most of the country go into complete lockdown.
The low prevalence in asymptomatic subjects is interesting. It may just be severe quarantining, but I do wonder whether all individuals are equally susceptible. There are examples where people have been in close proximity for some time, yet not infected, while others get infected much more readily. No-one had natural antibodies to this, so I wonder whether there is some as yet unrecognised (genetic?) co-factor for viral replication that some of us have and others do not.
The same point I made way back about the infamous ski chalet. A carrying Brit recently back from China spent a whole holiday in close confinement with friends and family. No precautions because this was before the global story broke. At the end of the holiday about half of them proved subsequently to be carrying the virus but the other half didn’t.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
The reason why it slowed in China is because a high-tech authoritarian government made most of the country go into complete lockdown.
The low prevalence in asymptomatic subjects is interesting. It may just be severe quarantining, but I do wonder whether all individuals are equally susceptible. There are examples where people have been in close proximity for some time, yet not infected, while others get infected much more readily. No-one had natural antibodies to this, so I wonder whether there is some as yet unrecognised (genetic?) co-factor for viral replication that some of us have and others do not.
Is it not a similar case for HIV / AIDS, they have found sex workers (I believe in Africa) who despite repeated exposure never contract anything?
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
The reason why it slowed in China is because a high-tech authoritarian government made most of the country go into complete lockdown.
The low prevalence in asymptomatic subjects is interesting. It may just be severe quarantining, but I do wonder whether all individuals are equally susceptible. There are examples where people have been in close proximity for some time, yet not infected, while others get infected much more readily. No-one had natural antibodies to this, so I wonder whether there is some as yet unrecognised (genetic?) co-factor for viral replication that some of us have and others do not.
The same point I made way back about the infamous ski chalet. A carrying Brit recently back from China spent a whole holiday in close confinement with friends and family. No precautions because this was before the global story broke. At the end of the holiday about half of them proved subsequently to be carrying the virus but the other half didn’t.
If I remember correctly, Mr Super Spreader only suffered very mild symptoms.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
The honest truth is, I don’t know my London boroughs that well. I have spent a lot of time in central London, and a lot of time in Kew and Richmond, but I don’t like the place much and I haven’t really explored it.
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
The reason why it slowed in China is because a high-tech authoritarian government made most of the country go into complete lockdown.
The low prevalence in asymptomatic subjects is interesting. It may just be severe quarantining, but I do wonder whether all individuals are equally susceptible. There are examples where people have been in close proximity for some time, yet not infected, while others get infected much more readily. No-one had natural antibodies to this, so I wonder whether there is some as yet unrecognised (genetic?) co-factor for viral replication that some of us have and others do not.
The same point I made way back about the infamous ski chalet. A carrying Brit recently back from China spent a whole holiday in close confinement with friends and family. No precautions because this was before the global story broke. At the end of the holiday about half of them proved subsequently to be carrying the virus but the other half didn’t.
The implication of this is there may be a ceiling well short of 100% susceptibility of the worst case scenario.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
The honest truth is, I don’t know my London boroughs that well. I have spent a lot of time in central London, and a lot of time in Kew and Richmond, but I don’t like the place much and I haven’t really explored it.
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
I was being a pedant - it didn’t undermine your case at all...
Parma's Serie A tie against SPAL on Sunday kicked off 75 minutes late following mixed messages over whether or not the game should go ahead amid the coronavirus outbreak.
Doesn't give you much confidence if you can't even organize cancelling a football match properly.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
we'd all be a lot better off if everybody stopped flying
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
The honest truth is, I don’t know my London boroughs that well. I have spent a lot of time in central London, and a lot of time in Kew and Richmond, but I don’t like the place much and I haven’t really explored it.
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
I was being a pedant - it didn’t undermine your case at all...
Well, in fairness given I am arguably PB’s most obsessive pedant, I can hardly criticise you for that!
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
Spain seems to have a real problem. 77 cases, 7 deaths so far today. 613, 17 total. 7 of the 10 previous fatalities occurred on Friday and Saturday.
3 deaths in Madrid, 3 in the Basque region, 1 in Aragon. In addition Valencia and Catalonia have recently reported deaths.
Another country whose culture is lots of close embraces.
Indeed. Post-pandemic tearing down the differing mortality and infection rates to see what worked, what didn't, what helped spread it, what prevented it etc will be absolutely fascinating.
Spain seems to have a real problem. 77 cases, 7 deaths so far today. 613, 17 total. 7 of the 10 previous fatalities occurred on Friday and Saturday.
3 deaths in Madrid, 3 in the Basque region, 1 in Aragon. In addition Valencia and Catalonia have recently reported deaths.
Another country whose culture is lots of close embraces.
Indeed. Post-pandemic tearing down the differing mortality and infection rates to see what worked, what didn't, what helped spread it, what prevented it etc will be absolutely fascinating.
Doing holy communion and La Bise seem like terrible ideas.
BTW just heard that today they are having to lock the doors of all rooms in the hospital where my wife works because of people (patients it seems), stealing things: gloves, masks, thermometers, sanitiser, other stuff.
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
Unfortunately, the criminally predisposed will be the ones that survive.......
The news from Italy is awful. But the apparent fact that the spread is slowing in China suggests to me that it's possible that that is because it is more prevalent in the population than supposed, with a large proportion of symptom-free infected people having the antibodies to make a kind of wall of resistance.
I'll quote the head of the WHO's China mission:
"More of a surprise, and this is something we still don’t understand, is how little virus there was in the much broader community. Everywhere we went, we tried to find and understand how many tests had been done, how many people were tested, and who were they.
In Guangdong province, for example, there were 320,000 tests done in people coming to fever clinics, outpatient clinics. And at the peak of the outbreak, 0.47 percent of those tests were positive. People keep saying [the cases are the] tip of the iceberg. But we couldn’t find that. We found there’s a lot of people who are cases, a lot of close contacts — but not a lot of asymptomatic circulation of this virus in the bigger population. And that’s different from flu. In flu, you’ll find this virus right through the child population, right through blood samples of 20 to 40 percent of the population."
The reason why it slowed in China is because a high-tech authoritarian government made most of the country go into complete lockdown.
The low prevalence in asymptomatic subjects is interesting. It may just be severe quarantining, but I do wonder whether all individuals are equally susceptible. There are examples where people have been in close proximity for some time, yet not infected, while others get infected much more readily. No-one had natural antibodies to this, so I wonder whether there is some as yet unrecognised (genetic?) co-factor for viral replication that some of us have and others do not.
The same point I made way back about the infamous ski chalet. A carrying Brit recently back from China spent a whole holiday in close confinement with friends and family. No precautions because this was before the global story broke. At the end of the holiday about half of them proved subsequently to be carrying the virus but the other half didn’t.
If I remember correctly, Mr Super Spreader only suffered very mild symptoms.
He had none at the time, as far as I know. But the point is that he infected half of his party but not the other half. In particular, children seem not to be that susceptible. Which must give some hope for the future of our species.
A group of people released from quarantine after returning from a coronavirus-hit cruise ship have praised by Britain’s Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, has for setting a “good example” to the public.
I think I might ask if I could stay in the uni accommodation for the next few months if I was them.
BTW just heard that today they are having to lock the doors of all rooms in the hospital where my wife works because of people (patients it seems), stealing things: gloves, masks, thermometers, sanitiser, other stuff.
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
Unfortunately, the criminally predisposed will be the ones that survive.......
That’s not true. It’s those who work in societies that have the advantage.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
17,000 Italians die annually from the flu. 60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
He had none at the time, as far as I know. But the point is that he infected half of his party but not the other half. In particular, children seem not to be that susceptible. Which must give some hope for the future of our species.
It is very interesting that normally diseases hit the icckle people as hard as it does the oldies. This thing seems to totally spare them.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
The cost-cutting on air filters in planes is going to look very short-sighted.
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
One of the things that is mis-understood on an epic scale is the nature of British re-armament. Started in 1932 (before Hitler came to power) - by 1936, it was essentially unlimited in money terms. the emphasis was on building up industrial capacity.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
Interesting although a big leap in positive cases, a much bigger leap in overall testing carried out, meaning that as a proportion of those tested, a lower rate than past 2 days, ~3.3% rather than > 4%.
The health care system in the Italian region of Lombardy is on the brink of collapse, the head of its crisis response unit has said.
"We're now being forced to set up intensive care treatment in corridors, in operating theatres, in recovery rooms. We've emptied entire hospital sections to make space for seriously sick people," Antonio Pesenti told the Corriere della Sera newspaper.
And it’s going to double at least eight times before the predicted late April/May peak, if it continues as it is.
That means about 1.5 million cases in Italy, with 150,000 requiring acute care, and 60,000 dead. It’s a medieval tragedy. It will scar us all for a generation.
A few weeks ago I adopted a rough rule of thumb for this wretched disease: imagine the worst that can happen, within reason - and that is what will happen. At almost every stage it’s proved right.
May God help us. Please.
17,000 Italians die annually from the flu. 60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
Sean is however working his way through his book on the medieval tragedy and struggling to separate fact from fiction.
He had none at the time, as far as I know. But the point is that he infected half of his party but not the other half. In particular, children seem not to be that susceptible. Which must give some hope for the future of our species.
It is very interesting that normally diseases hit the icckle people as hard as it does the oldies. This thing seems to totally spare them.
I suspect that it interacts with pre-existing conditions - it is this rather than age per se that drives mortality
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
we'd all be a lot better off if everybody stopped flying
I am not sure I can afford to take 2 weeks to get to America on a boat for a business trip.
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
The honest truth is, I don’t know my London boroughs that well. I have spent a lot of time in central London, and a lot of time in Kew and Richmond, but I don’t like the place much and I haven’t really explored it.
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
I was being a pedant - it didn’t undermine your case at all...
Oh turn on HYUFD again, you really are a pompous arse sometimes.
And for the point of property prices your original pedant was indeed utterly irrelevant, property prices are measured by borough so which area of Kensington and Chelsea it happened to be in is completely irrelevant in terms of comparing its property prices with Doncaster
He had none at the time, as far as I know. But the point is that he infected half of his party but not the other half. In particular, children seem not to be that susceptible. Which must give some hope for the future of our species.
It is very interesting that normally diseases hit the icckle people as hard as it does the oldies. This thing seems to totally spare them.
I suspect that it interacts with pre-existing conditions - it is this rather than age per se that drives mortality
That makes sense. Given nobody has any built up immunity, it takes your body longer than usual to realize it needs to react to this thread, by which point for those that have pre-existing conditions it is now already far more serious.
That Tempest mockup is top kek. 90s vintage Replica RCS study plonked on Tornado landing gear from the Warton skip with fod covers to hide the fact that there's nothing inside it.
It's a wooden (largely) mockup - the aircraft industry has been building those since metal and mass production was a thing.
I thought I was reasonably up on these things but have never heard of the Bristol B1.39 Standard Bomber. Looks a bit of a beast, the tricycle undercarriage is ahead of its time for such a big plane.
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
One of the things that is mis-understood on an epic scale is the nature of British re-armament. Started in 1932 (before Hitler came to power) - by 1936, it was essentially unlimited in money terms. the emphasis was on building up industrial capacity.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
I thought he didn’t expect war over Poland? Just pushed his luck once too often
BTW just heard that today they are having to lock the doors of all rooms in the hospital where my wife works because of people (patients it seems), stealing things: gloves, masks, thermometers, sanitiser, other stuff.
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
Unfortunately, the criminally predisposed will be the ones that survive.......
That’s not true. It’s those who work in societies that have the advantage.
For Andy and his ostrich act: Netherlands, 77 new cases (up to 265 total), 2 new deaths (up to 3 total).
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
I stick by my view that the location of transmission is mostly airports and aeroplanes.
Yep, it seems like a dream for the virus: lots of people closely gathered together, all heading to different locations. Couldn't design a better way of dispersing something all over the globe.
we'd all be a lot better off if everybody stopped flying
I am not sure I can afford to take 2 weeks to get to America on a boat for a business trip.
Videoconference call?
For the foreseeable future, that is how I will be conducting my work. I certainly won't be making visits to any university campus etc !!!
Assumption being made that there are problems caused by central Government being based in London. Ultimately it's more likely that problems are caused by central Government being central Government, and necessarily based somewhere.
Possibly. But the cost is undoubtedly partly due to government being in central London.
So we could massively reduce salaries and still fund a nicer lifestyle for these guys.
(Prices from Zoopla).
That’s Worlds End, not Kensington
World's End is still in the London borough of Kensington and Chelsea, the most expensive borough in the UK with the highest average property prices in the country
I know that. I used to live in Town’s End House which is a little closer to Sloane Square 😆
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
All very interesting but does not really change Ydoethur's original point that you can buy a house in Doncaster for a tenth of the price of a house of the same size in Kensington and Chelsea
May be you can read his mind.
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
The honest truth is, I don’t know my London boroughs that well. I have spent a lot of time in central London, and a lot of time in Kew and Richmond, but I don’t like the place much and I haven’t really explored it.
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
I was being a pedant - it didn’t undermine your case at all...
Oh turn on HYUFD again, you really are a pompous arse sometimes.
And for the point of property prices your originally pedant is utterly irrelevant, property prices are measured by borough so which area of Kensington and Chelsea it happened to be in is completely irrelevant in terms of comparing property prices with Doncaster
He said Kensington.
And illustrated it with a house in Chelsea.
There is a reason why it is called the RB of K *AND* C
And I’m not turning on you. But if you feel there is a consistency of comments have a think about why...
At the moment, it is still possible to travel by train and plane to Lombardy but, in the next few hours, checkpoints should be placed at toll booths, stations and airports. Public transport within the cities will instead remain guaranteed.
The Italians really are f##king this up...we will get those check-points up right after I have watched the footy and had dinner with my family. In which time, everybody under the sun has legged it, spreading the disease far and wide.
BTW just heard that today they are having to lock the doors of all rooms in the hospital where my wife works because of people (patients it seems), stealing things: gloves, masks, thermometers, sanitiser, other stuff.
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
Unfortunately, the criminally predisposed will be the ones that survive.......
That’s not true. It’s those who work in societies that have the advantage.
Not if the crims have all the hand-sanitizer.
“The rain it raineth every day Upon the just and unjust feller But mostly on the the just because The unjust’s got the just’s umbrella”
We are up another 64 cases. Its not doubling every couple of days but it is increasing fast.
So far we haven't seen the explosive growth, especially given the significant amount of testing. But, I think it is clear that Stage II will be called on Monday.
Comments
Shopkeeper replies, “no, we don’t have any fish. The shop that doesn’t have any meat is across the street.”
Nobody on here is disputing the gravity of the epidemic, it’s just some of us refuse to panic and predict the end of civilisation.
I think the only person in denial was HYUFD who was advocating BROTH last week to victims. However HYUFD is best ignored anyway, he does not constitute all of PB.
Ten minutes later, he comes back and rejoins the queue. One brave soul pipes up, ‘I thought you were off to shoot Gorbachev?’
‘I tried,’ said the angry man. ‘But the queue to shoot him was even longer than this one.’
If millions die in the UK, you can at least claim to have been vindicated, even though the panic you have tried to stir up and the obvious enjoyment you have derived from the storyline don’t reflect well on your character.
If the government’s central case proves correct and we are talking about a death rate within an order of magnitude of the worst flu outbreaks previously, then the nonsense you have posted to this forum will be seen to have been reprehensible. And you will deserve to be castigated for it until the end of time - as, to be fair, you yourself have already conceded.
"With all the 5 year plans, the only thing we have succeeded in over producing is nuclear reactor meltdowns."
We're all going to die!!!!!!!!
All except the Party Secretary, yes.
Why was he different?
He couldn’t be found at home.
It’s traditionally seen as the boundary between Chelsea and Fulham.
Which is nowhere near St Mary Abbotts, North Kensington, West Kensington or South Kensington.
When I suggested selling the world’s stock markets (as I did) your only response was to suggest that Trump’s re-election was now “guaranteed” as he liked borders and disliked China.
What happened in mid February to flip you into such a panic?
Of the 265 patients, 144 have travelled abroad. The majority (131) of these patients have been in (northern) Italy. 74 other patients were infected by an already diagnosed patient. For 47 patients it is still being investigated how they were infected.
https://www.rivm.nl//nieuws//actuele-informatie-over-coronavirus
And with that I return to my self-isolation from PB.
One of the committee goes up to inspect the painting. “This woman looks like Mrs Lenin”, he exclaims. “But where is Lenin?”
“Lenin is in Poland”, the artist replies.
So please don't make up lies about me
The two best measures would be to massively ramp up testing capability, and mobilise the army to quarantine and test all incoming travellers over 3 days, with mandatory reporting back in for testing at 7, 10, and 14 days. As well as testing of every hospital and GP visitor. Tens of thousands of tests a day, if SK can do it, why not us?
Instead, after a 35-minute delay, it was announced the game would go ahead along with, it is assumed, the rest of this weekend’s fixture list. The game kicked off at 12.45pm GMT.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/08/coronavirus-live-updates-third-death-in-australia-as-cases-reach-more-than-70
https://youtu.be/-wPKt5W8I5Y
sorry, but I find some humans are really despicable
I also said it was going to become endemic and probably seasonal. Read Peter Piot’s interview in the Times yesterday.
I find it interesting that PHE has chosen to deploy him at this point.
Surgical spirit ... stop panic-mongering and get some nouse.
https://twitter.com/CTrunds/status/1236409161254125570
He posted Kensington (which is far far more expensive) not RBKC or Kensington & Chelsea.
(My original point was a class PB pedantic response, unconnected to @ydoethur ’s case)
https://blogs.endjin.com/2020/02/mental-health-and-managing-the-challenges-of-remote-working/
Not sure if I can do those last two trains west and north of Inverness this side of summer given I would need at least 3 nights' stay there...
So I fully accept I may have picked a house in the RBKC and not realised it isn’t actually in Kensington.
3 deaths in Madrid, 3 in the Basque region, 1 in Aragon. In addition Valencia and Catalonia have recently reported deaths.
@HYUFD decided to “prove” that I was wrong...
But he’s gone quiet now 😉
Doesn't give you much confidence if you can't even organize cancelling a football match properly.
https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1236652896948715522?s=20
Slightly weird that the model kit industry makes kits of every speculative, back-of-a-fag-packet Luftwaffe design but isn't interested in stuff like that.
I think I might ask if I could stay in the uni accommodation for the next few months if I was them.
60,000 dead would be less than a 300% increase on typical flu mortality.
What you're describing is more a bad flu than a medieval tragedy.
Thanks.
The Fairey Battle was really designed to help build out the RAF with *something* - so you would have many squadrons of trained pilots, navigators etc.
The plan was that by 1941 the RAF would equipped with 4,000 of the Standard Bomber aircraft replacing *all* the heavy and mediums - no Hampdens, Wellingtons, Manchesters etc. 300mph cruise, uniform 20mm cannon armament.
They would be escorted by long range, 20mm cannon armed fighters.
The German re-armament plan would be ready for was in 1942-3 - Hitler kicking off early was a shock to the German General staff as well
And for the point of property prices your original pedant was indeed utterly irrelevant, property prices are measured by borough so which area of Kensington and Chelsea it happened to be in is completely irrelevant in terms of comparing its property prices with Doncaster
And illustrated it with a house in Chelsea.
There is a reason why it is called the RB of K *AND* C
And I’m not turning on you. But if you feel there is a consistency of comments have a think about why...
The Italians really are f##king this up...we will get those check-points up right after I have watched the footy and had dinner with my family. In which time, everybody under the sun has legged it, spreading the disease far and wide.
Upon the just and unjust feller
But mostly on the the just because
The unjust’s got the just’s umbrella”