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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From a 4.9% betting chance to 75% one in just nine days – Bide
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From a 4.9% betting chance to 75% one in just nine days – Biden’s extraordinary change of fortune
It was just three days before Super Tuesday that Mayor Pete made the dramatic move that has totally changed the Democratic nomination race and undermined the one who looked as though he was running away with it – Bernie Sanders. Looking back and seeing what happened overnight in the 14 primaries almost everybody totally underestimated the impact.
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I was assured he wouldn't get the nomination if he didn't win at least one of those two states.
Disclaimer: obviously it doesn’t have to be, but practically...
Warren?
https://twitter.com/joshwoolcott/status/1235132256303316992
It was only in November 2004 that Dispatches revealed the extent of Wakefield's fraud and he was only struck off by the GMC 6 years after that.
So someone gullible enough to fall for Wakefield's bullshit (as even the Lancet had done!) earlier in 2004 isn't remotely as comprehensively stupid as someone who believes it in 2020.
He’s 1.31 now.
Unfortunately Biden is not in the same league, and whether compos mentis or not he comes over as rather shallow and boorish. You have to pity the US, a great country no longer blessed with leaders who are up to the job.
(Though, TBF, our own PM has seen similar dramatic changes of fortune over the last few years, even if not quite so abrupt.)
But likely to be a woman.
I think that the most outstanding bet at the moment is to Lay Trump at 1.75 or thereabouts. I`d make him slightly odds against. I`m not even totally convinced that he will run. Virus and markets are going against him.
Both available at 1000/1 for President....*cough*
America from the top down is trying to ignore the issue and hope it blows past them. Praying won't be a solution.
Wonder if Biden might close the gap on Sanders a bit. Not enough to win, but a 5-10% gap is very different to a big Sanders win.
Bidet
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/04/elizabeth-warren-super-tuesday-wipeout-120705
How long is he expecting the shortage to last for??
I`ve had a hunch for a while, and it has deepened recently, that Trump may be challenged, or may choose not to run. He can be Laid on BF at a low-risk 1.06.
It was silly but somewhat understandable to believe Doctor Wakefield in 2004 (especially before the Lancet retracted his findings that year).
It is stupid beyond all belief to believe the fraudulent struck off Andrew Wakefield in 2020.
My view is he immediately attempts to cultivate a new left/centre left alliance and aims for Canterbury type seats over Blythe Valley.
At worst he sets up lots of targets for 2029 as per Kinnock.
I think Johnson will be very unpopular by 2024. It will be a race of who is hated the least IMHO.
Biden's ideal pick would probably be a Latino woman. But absent any realistic chance of that he could go for Beto.
When it was delivered I received a case of the 16 packs of rolls. I think from memory perhaps half a dozen packs in the case. Considered sending it back, but worked out it was much cheaper per roll than buying it normally and it had no expiry date so kept it. Gone through it all now but that would have been handy in a "crisis" like this LOL.
Spoiler: https://lawprofessors.typepad.com/files/conlaw3.obama.1996.fall.pdf
And my point is if one of those columnists you refer to is criticising anti-vaxxers today in 2020 then I 100% back that, even if they were gullible enough to fall for Andrew Wakefield's fraud before it was revealed to be fraud.
Being willing to acknowledge you were wrong in the past is a strength not a weakness.
More likely he will not run. Trump`s mind-set is that he doesn`t fight battles he thinks he may not win. Internal polling may guide him. There is also a possible health issue. Through turnout shifts alone the Dems have got a big advantage this time and the virus and economic/market factors will to some extent work against Trump (possibly to a large extent).
However, the Reps have a formidable (and dodgy and ruthless) social media operation. But I wonder whether they exhausted this potential last time.
In summary, I`m a big Layer of Trump for next president - whoever the Dems pick. But especially if they go for Biden, who will get the black vote out.
That’s absolutely barmy.
If you’re quarantined at home then you can just have a shower or bath.
And, in the very unlikely event the water supply fails (you just need a few engineers in a few fairly isolated pumping and treatment stations and a team of leak fixers - it isn’t a high risk coronavirus occupation) you’ll have bigger fish to fry.
Is it really the SA DofH?
Beto has much more history working on the Latino vote, and could take charge of that push. Although in many ways he's a moderate, he's not totally hated by the Left. Also someone from outside the North/Northeast.
VP picks are rarely people who could overshadow the president.
The alternatives seem to bring less.
Biden has Black support so why pick Abrams? Besides she's trumpeted as a rising star, VP is not the ideal position to advance from.
Biden eats the Butt/Klob vote so no need for them.
Warren? Olive branch to the Left maybe, but she's ambitious and would not be controllable.
That said, Biden is OK. And compared to the individual he will replace he is the Second Coming. So, yes, I'm totally behind him now. Whatever it takes, including the right medication. C'mon Joe!
Seems to me that the government’s advice since Monday has vindicated Eadric. Sure, they were a bit more sober but the underlying message was the same. Containment is nearing an end, a very big proportion of the population will end up catching the virus until herd immunity kicks in and on the best available data, this will cause a pretty unthinkable amount of critical care cases and deaths.
Interesting that the Singapore govt also gave a more negative message to its public today, telling them that the small handful of daily cases “may not be normal” and to expect a potentially significant increase, because they cannot close the country to foreign travellers indefinitely.
Meanwhile the Chinese ambassador to UN is talking in terms of “victory”...
The glimmer as I see it is that the mortality rate may be far lower and infection rate higher than they are supposing. The more I read of the symptoms, the more convinced I am that my family and I might have had it here in Sing. But none of us were tested because apart from my son who recovered quickly, we didn’t have a fever and hadn’t been to China. We were instead told to self isolate and I had to keep going back every 2-3 days for a progress check, since my symptoms were worst.
I now read that the newest data indicate that fever is only prevalent in 85% of cases. And potentially fewer, if having a fever has been a typical hurdle to meet before being tested. Yet I had pretty much every other symptom of mild infection. Chest pain, awful breathlessness, fatigue, persistent shallow cough, initial sore throat etc... But I’ll probably never know now.
The data from the Diamond Princess should give some encouragement too. A ship of old people and still only 6 deaths out of 705 cases. Sure, lots of cases remain unresolved but this is not at the 8-10% end of the spectrum one might expect given the probable demographics.
And, no, Sanders wouldn't win. He would be utterly pulverised in the US election. For Americans he's 1000x worse than Corbyn. Not because of terrorist sympathies or anti-semitism but the worst 'S' crime of them all. Socialist.
I'd be quite chipper about my prospects if I were picked as Biden's VP.....
Assuming Bloomberg misses out on statewide viability, which looks likely given how much LA county vote is outstanding it all depends how many counties he is viable in.
50 delegates say gives the remainder to Sanders/Biden on their vote split less the remainder.
Going 34 - 25 to Sanders statewide produces 58% of the delegates gives 83 delegates.
Assuming Bloomberg is viable in 50% of CDs, 34-25-16 Sanders gets 45% in those he is viable in and 58% in those he isn't.
So 52% say as a weighted avg.
That's 143 delgates.
So 226 Sanders, 139 Biden, 50 Bloomberg.
So if the Democrats win this time (big if!) I'd make them very heavy odds on to win in 2024 and I can't see Biden running again in 2024 even if he makes it that far. So his Veep should be odds on favourite for next President from the day after Biden is elected if he is.
https://twitter.com/mooncult/status/1235063098928590848?s=21
Joseph R. Biden Jr.
670
Bernie Sanders
589
Michael R. Bloomberg
104
Elizabeth Warren
97
Where is Warren getting her delegates from ?