In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, on which day will the patch cover half of the lake?
The "lot of fuss about nothing" claim depends heavily on not knowing the right answer to that.
The "shut down the country and airports and cancel all sports and gatherings now" hysteria depends upon not knowing the answer too.
Quite. Because 15/16 of the lake's surface is still ABSOLUTELY CLEAR, do you hear me? And there is *nothing* more irrational than taking steps now, to prevent undesirable consequences in future.
I'm hearing the suggestions you refer to mainly from the government's scientific advisors, and they don't sound that hysterical to me.
Actually the government's scientific advisors have made it abundantly that this is the wrong time to shut everything down, precisely because it would be ineffectual now and very damaging now. They also say quite rightly that it may be necessary in the future and that they will announce when its appropriate based upon science - but if it is prematurely done then it will be ineffectual in the future as sustained containment of that level isn't possible. So you need to do the containment of that level in the right window of opportunity.
To extend the lake analogy we are just one small part of the lake, we aren't the entire lake. We're trying to worry about our section of the lake and are trying to prevent lily pad growth on our section of it. However whatever we do they will continue to grow exponentially in the rest of the lake and those lily pads growing around our section of the lake (which we can't control) can infect our part of the lake when the lily pads outside grow.
To use your analogy let us say we have some very toxic poison that we can pour onto our section of the pond. It will be quite damaging but will dramatically slow lily pad growth in our section of the pond for 21 days and could halt infections from outside during that period. However after that lily pad growth will resume and we will be able to be reinfected from the rest of the pond again. Because the poison is so toxic it can only effectively be used once.
We're currently on day 5 of the 48 day outbreak. At the minute our section of the pond is 99.999% clear of lily pads, some arrive each day from the rest of the pond (exponentially growing) but we're individually trying to remove them from the pond manually at the minute. Ultimately we won't be able to do that now.
So the question is do we waste our poison now? Or do we use it later? If we use it now, we will be reinfected afterwards and incapable of using it again later.
Have they? I thought the consensus was the opposite - spend our ammunition now, to buy time to get us to summer weather - and the debate is about whether cancelling things is proportionate, not whether it's correctly timed.
No, that's exactly what is being said. They're not relying upon the summer rid of this for us, but they're hoping to contain it to the summer. The Chief Science Officer yesterday went into some detail why they're following the policy they are.
Basically the debate is specifically about timing it right. So there is an escalating series of steps that can be done but the most severe containment they know full well can only be done temporarily, so that is why you don't blow your ammunition prematurely. You can't keep everything shut down forever, so you need to time it right. That's the debate - and now is not right.
He's clear second favourite but if Warren drops out and he faces Biden one on one on a debate stage 7.2 could look like a gift. £25 it is for me.
Could be, but only if he wises up about his electorally nuts 'socialist' self-definition.
The more I think about Biden's potential vulnerability in the debates, the more I think that the fact that is now hard for Sanders, doesn't mean it's already entirely over.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Indeed, people. I know two people with it and another who is self-isolating because her husband has it.
I was quite surprised at the plural too.
It turns out, however, that there is a connection between the two I know and the husband of the third that I was previously unaware of, and that the source of infection is the same for all three.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
I don`t believe that only 8 have recovered. The data has not been updated since 15 Feb.
Up until Feb 24th we only had 9 cases. On the 28th we had 16. Warnings from China indicate that that this virus does take an unusually long time for people to recover from.
Jon Oliver did a segment on "trailer parks", they include probably what you might not think of a trailer park i.e. a load of static caravans.
Apparently it is used in the official figures to denote a particular category of building / living arrangement, so there are loads of dwellings that class as a "trailer" and it is more like a prefab house.
Indeed, a large number of trailer parks are one or two unit prefabs dropped down onto either a slab or blocks. They look like cheap housing, not the British idea of a 'trailer'.
There are many like that in the Brecon area. Most of them are smart and very well looked after, presumably holiday villages once upon a time, for which the demand has disappeared.
Bloomberg is 78 and his net worth is estimated at $55 billion. So what if he dropped half a billion on a one-off gamble for the presidency? It affects his lifestyle not one bit. For you or me, it's eye-watering. For him, it's chump change.
He'll be far more concerned about the reputational side. $500 million is nothing. Sneers from Trump, and cheap laughs on TV shows are probably infinitely more important to him.
Even that he can rationalize away - telling himself he gave the Dems a backstop when it looked like they needed it, but now they don't. And he can now use the infrastructure he has created for this run and his other causes (gun control, education) to support Biden's fight against Trump.
He'll be disappointed, but he'll rationalize it and move on to the next challenge because that is the mindset of someone as genuinely successful (i.e. not Trumpian successful) as Bloomberg.
I expect him to be next Treasury Secretary.
Does that presuppose the Dems win the White House in November?
Well, it would be an odd prediction for a Trump nomination?
He could be thinking Mnuchin lasts another 5 years...
He's clear second favourite but if Warren drops out and he faces Biden one on one on a debate stage 7.2 could look like a gift. £25 it is for me.
Could be, but only if he wises us about his electorally nuts 'socialist' self-definition.
"Self-definition" is right. I have a few friends and family who identify as socialists, but the briefest of interrogations reveals that they are not socialist at all - they are strong social democrats (nothing wrong with that). Some people wear "socialist" as a badge of honour.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
I don`t believe that only 8 have recovered. The data has not been updated since 15 Feb.
Up until Feb 24th we only had 9 cases. On the 28th we had 16. Warnings from China indicate that that this virus does take an unusually long time for people to recover from.
Is the definition of ‘recover’ feeling better, or testing free of the virus?
The region of Lombardy is the epicenter of Italy’s outbreak, registering the first positive test of the northern cluster and now counting at least 1,254 of Italy’s 2,036 cases. Alarmingly, 10% of Lombardy’s doctors and nurses cannot work because they tested positive for the virus and are in quarantine, the region’s top health official, Giulio Gallera, said Monday.
Some 9% of people diagnosed with the COVID-19 need intensive care, Borrelli said.
“We’ll take anyone: old, young. We need personnel, especially qualified doctors,” Gallera told reporters.
Regional authorities have asked Lombardy’s hospitals to reduce by 70 percent their planned or elective surgeries, to free up ICU beds for virus patients.
Who in their right mind would want elective surgery at this time in those areas of Italy?
Elective just means planned admission, so nearly all cardiac, thoracic, neurosurgery etc, much of it for urgent, though not strictly emergency.
Thanks, Foxy. Who in their right minds would want non-urgent elective surgery? Surely eliminating the non-urgent elective surgery would get you down by 70% or even more?
Stopping elective surgery has two effects apart from the obvious one on waiting times.
It frees up hospital beds and ICU space.
It allows the usage of anaesthetists, theatre teams operating theatres and recovery areas to be used as over flow ICU. In Leicester this doubles us from 50 odd ICU beds to 100.
Once we get past 1000 simultaneous cases in Leics, there is no more room at the inn, and it gets pretty brutal.
In the US, there is also focus on the absolute number of respirators available within each health district as a rate-limiting factor.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
Have they? I thought the consensus was the opposite - spend our ammunition now, to buy time to get us to summer weather - and the debate is about whether cancelling things is proportionate, not whether it's correctly timed.
As I understand it timing is key, you want to "shut down everything" at the time it can do the most good. If you do it early you will simply end up having to "shut down everything" twice, and second time around people might not be so willing to do so.
Of course I wouldn't want the job of deciding when the time is optimal.
Yes! 100% this.
This is exactly what the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Officer kept repeating yesterday in their press conference with the Prime Minister.
Looks like I was right. Two in-patients have tested positive in King's College Hospital despite staying in separate wards. Expect a rocket in numbers tomorrow.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
I don`t believe that only 8 have recovered. The data has not been updated since 15 Feb.
I think patients are only labelled as recovered when clinically well and repeated negative tests, so no longer an infection risk.
Pooled antibodies from such patients may prove useful in treatment.
Foxy, how concerned about this are you? Say, for example, that you are concerned about influenza to the tune of 10 out of 100, what mark would you give coronavirus?
You know I am going to have to fact check that! That would mean over 20m in trailer parks.
I know. Quite something. And although some of the abodes will be deluxe and roomy most of them will be far from that. When you take stats like this, plus the lack of basic healthcare, the poverty both urban and rural, the opioid addiction, the guns, the obesity, the rape culture in college, the low life expectancy, the racial tensions, the astonishing number of evangelicals, the FUBAR public finances, the lunatic spending on the military, the staggering gap between rich and poor - well it becomes very obvious indeed why "socialism" is such a dirty word over there.
Jon Oliver did a segment on "trailer parks", they include probably what you might not think of a trailer park i.e. a load of static caravans.
Apparently it is used in the official figures to denote a particular category of building / living arrangement, so there are loads of dwellings that class as a "trailer" and it is more like a prefab house.
We have them here. We call them “park homes”, and they caused me a lot of grief during the 2011 Census.
Jon Oliver did a segment on "trailer parks", they include probably what you might not think of a trailer park i.e. a load of static caravans.
Apparently it is used in the official figures to denote a particular category of building / living arrangement, so there are loads of dwellings that class as a "trailer" and it is more like a prefab house.
We have them here. We call them “park homes”, and they caused me a lot of grief during the 2011 Census.
So if Biden wins I win just under 500 and if Sanders wins I lose just over 500. I can cash out for 270 profit now. What's the smart thing do do?
Well, I`m going to say don`t cash out. But that`s because I don`t really approve of "cashing out", which isn`t really a thing at all. It means placing other bets (to BF`s advantage) for one thing.
I think you should look at each bet as a stand-alone entity - forgetting about previous bets you have made.
Do you see Sanders as a good bet at current odds (imagining that you have no interest in this market to date)? If yes, then back him.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
You know I am going to have to fact check that! That would mean over 20m in trailer parks.
I know. Quite something. And although some of the abodes will be deluxe and roomy most of them will be far from that. When you take stats like this, plus the lack of basic healthcare, the poverty both urban and rural, the opioid addiction, the guns, the obesity, the rape culture in college, the low life expectancy, the racial tensions, the astonishing number of evangelicals, the FUBAR public finances, the lunatic spending on the military, the staggering gap between rich and poor - well it becomes very obvious indeed why "socialism" is such a dirty word over there.
My main concern with Biden is, as more challengers drop out, he gets more speaking time in the next debate.
I think you mean "rambling time"
The next democrat debate is not to till the 15 March, after the 10 March when 6 states vote.
If Biden is lucky, Now that Bloomberg has pulled out Biden will rise in the polls, then sweep those 5 states, and Sanders pulls realizing there is no path to victory pulls out and the debate can be canceled.
Jon Oliver did a segment on "trailer parks", they include probably what you might not think of a trailer park i.e. a load of static caravans.
Apparently it is used in the official figures to denote a particular category of building / living arrangement, so there are loads of dwellings that class as a "trailer" and it is more like a prefab house.
We have them here. We call them “park homes”, and they caused me a lot of grief during the 2011 Census.
Just class them as trailer trash.
The problem was that we posted out questionnaires to regular households and hand delivered to communal establishments such as holiday parks (places you might not expect usual residents but you never know). The address products had no consistency in terms of classification so in the end I took an executive decision and went through the lists and stuck them on the household list.
So we actually can’t do stats on those sorts of houses and their residents. It’s not something that tends to come up here, so I guess some poor bugger at ONS is going through the same problem for 2021.
Strangely, now people I know are getting coronavirus, I'm feeling rather more sanguine about it. It's here. I'll almost certainly get it, and almost certainly get through it. I'll probably miss out on a nice family holiday in the New Forest that I was looking forward to this spring, and perhaps also a trip to the Peak District with friends. Written down like that, it doesn't look apocalyptic. I'm expecting everyone I know to get it, and recover, and the economy to suffer no lasting damage.
"people"?
There are 85 cases in the UK or are you talking about globally?
Other than that, commendable attitude.
Worth remembering that of the 85 cases many (most?) will have recovered fine, some having only mild symptoms or none at all. The tally of confirmed cases is bound to rise because they are not deducting from the number those that no longer have it.
8 recovered at the moment. It takes quite a while to get over this.
I don`t believe that only 8 have recovered. The data has not been updated since 15 Feb.
I think patients are only labelled as recovered when clinically well and repeated negative tests, so no longer an infection risk.
Pooled antibodies from such patients may prove useful in treatment.
Foxy, how concerned about this are you? Say, for example, that you are concerned about influenza to the tune of 10 out of 100, what mark would you give coronavirus?
I don't worry about flu, but I have roughly 2% risk of dying if I caught COVID. I am reasonably OK about professional exposure as we have lots of protective equipment at work, and probably priority treatment up to a point. As both Mrs Foxy and I will be working at the hospital, we are quite high exposure risk.
I have stockpiled supplies, am making my own alcohol hand gel for the family and have updated my life insurance and will. So yes, a teensy bit worried!
My main concern with Biden is, as more challengers drop out, he gets more speaking time in the next debate.
I think you mean "rambling time"
The next democrat debate is not to till the 15 March, after the 10 March when 6 states vote.
If Biden is lucky, Now that Bloomberg has pulled out Biden will rise in the polls, then sweep those 5 states, and Sanders pulls realizing there is no path to victory pulls out and the debate can be canceled.
Jon Oliver did a segment on "trailer parks", they include probably what you might not think of a trailer park i.e. a load of static caravans.
Apparently it is used in the official figures to denote a particular category of building / living arrangement, so there are loads of dwellings that class as a "trailer" and it is more like a prefab house.
We have them here. We call them “park homes”, and they caused me a lot of grief during the 2011 Census.
Just class them as trailer trash.
The problem was that we posted out questionnaires to regular households and hand delivered to communal establishments such as holiday parks (places you might not expect usual residents but you never know). The address products had no consistency in terms of classification so in the end I took an executive decision and went through the lists and stuck them on the household list.
So we actually can’t do stats on those sorts of houses and their residents. It’s not something that tends to come up here, so I guess some poor bugger at ONS is going through the same problem for 2021.
It's only quite recently I discovered that the UK has so many trailer parks, thanks to Sex Education.
I'm really worried about Kings' Hospital. If two unconnected patients caught it then a good number of the staff and other patients will have. This could be the start of it escaping containment.
Been in London today. Saw a grand total of 3 people with face masks. And one of them had taken it off to make a phone call. And yet the media always seem to find someone in a mask for their photos. Funny that.
I've been to several supermarkets today (for different reasons) across north London and Essex
Saw my first real "panic buying". Large queues, huge purchases, handwash sold out, signs saying "Sorry we don't have X or X"
I actually don't think this can be fairly labelled panic buying. It is a rational response to the likelihood that we are following Italy into a serious situation with closed schools, quarantines, lockdowns
LOL sorry I need to break my don't respond directly to twats rule.
So have I got this right, people are going into lockdown and quarantine. So why are they buying handwash if they aren't going to go anywhere?
I think the logic is people are doing it before it reaches that point.
LOL. So at what point do those people retreat into quarantine? There are cases in the UK already. Our man was in Essex and I believe the Central Line reaches as far as Ongar. So is it brinksmanship? I'll wait until there is a confirmed case at the Kings Arms on the High Street and then that's it I'm off.
Epping! Not Ongar! Epping to Ongar closed in 1994, but most of the line reopened as a heritage railway in 2012.
Sky report Bloomberg has dropped out and supports Biden
Bloomberg like Giuliani in 2008 has discovered that skipping the early states and going straight to the Super Tuesday states is not a winning strategy
Or, he has achieved his aim, of spending hundreds of millions, a large potion of which was in anti-sanders adds, so that the democrats can have somebody who is half viable as there candidate in 2020.
Not him and not necessarily a grate candidate but at least not a socialist.
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
Poor surveillance and tracking versus us. But on the whole, the Italians are just getting a taste of it early.
The Chinese didn't start welding people into apartments for shits and giggles.
We are all going to need a strong mind over the next few months.
OT good meta piece by Tyler Cowen on the covid-19 arguments:
Overall, the growthers tend to be analytical people who work a lot with numbers and are used to modeling the problems they face. The mindset in Washington, by contrast — and indeed much of America — is much closer to the base-raters.
The base-raters, when assessing the likelihood of a particular scenario, start by asking how often it has happened before. That is, they estimate its base-rate likelihood. And history shows that major pandemics have lately been rare.
In a lake, there is a patch of lily pads. Every day, the patch doubles in size. If it takes 48 days for the patch to cover the entire lake, on which day will the patch cover half of the lake?
The "lot of fuss about nothing" claim depends heavily on not knowing the right answer to that.
The "shut down the country and airports and cancel all sports and gatherings now" hysteria depends upon not knowing the answer too.
The point of cancelling large gatherings is that doubling in size is not a given, you can add stuff to the water that makes it less friendly to lilies. Unfortunately they grow under the water where you can't see them before they show up on top, so you have to add it to all the water in the lake, even though most of the water doesn't yet have lilies in it.
I will refuse to believe that the government is taking the threat seriously until they close down the tube in London at the very least (and the rail network arguably after that).
Hang on a sec! I still need to do Inverness to Kyle, Inverness to Thurso and Wick, and Inverurie to Inverness. Oh and Dale Rail from Clitheroe to Hellifield!
Slumming it in Aberdeen this week with brother, sister in law and their newborn son. How likely is the Aberdeen to Inverness line to be swamped by hand-egg fans at the weekend? But will hopefully be able to do it by Friday...
You also need to do the curve that avoids Inverness station. One train per day does that, I think.
No service in the current timetable according to PSUL.
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
It is antigenically a slightly different strain, but I don't think Italy is handling it badly. Just unlucky that it hit there first.
The line for rate of increase for each of the Western European countries is quite startling...
Yep. It's really something. Seeing them start to rocket is what made me a wee bit concerned.
It also reveals that of Washington State's 24 cases, 9 are dead. Which seems interesting...
It has to be certain that Washington State's 9 dead are NOT from 24 cases, but from somewhere closer to 300 to 400.
Italy's death rate - the highest in the developed world is 3.2%, and almost the only way lethality could be higher in Washington would be if the quality of care were a great deal worse.
A far likelier explanation is that reporting in the US is running 90% below reality. Which probably means that,the infection rate will get a very great deal worse, because that in turn means 90% of sick people are failing to self-isolate.
Trump's about to have a new Korea scale outbreak on his hands. And on his watch.
Which probably means we now have a real chance of an experienced, centrist politician in the White House next January.
Jon Oliver did a segment on "trailer parks", they include probably what you might not think of a trailer park i.e. a load of static caravans.
Apparently it is used in the official figures to denote a particular category of building / living arrangement, so there are loads of dwellings that class as a "trailer" and it is more like a prefab house.
True here too I suspect, though I don't know the extent, as I have relatives who have lived in what were definitely static caravans, but within the same estate, for wont of a better word, prefab housing as well, which are probably labelled the same.
This suggests that there's maybe 5-10 times as many cases as they've found so far out there, and it is spreading quicker than they're testing. In other words it's out there.
I'm really worried about Kings' Hospital. If two unconnected patients caught it then a good number of the staff and other patients will have. This could be the start of it escaping containment.
Do you have a link about Kings or is it anecdotal / twitter supposition?
Of course you'd say that, you wealthy well educated person!
More seriously, I find the fetishisation of membership size by some another sign of being overly concerned with members above all others. Important people, lifeblood of a party, any party, but there are limits.
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
some of the deaths are patients who caught the virus in intensive care - so were already seriously ill. which might partly explain why the death rate is relatively high. poor organisation - sure. at least what I know from close family members who live there, and from the 2 years that I lived in Milan. the health system is patchy. lots of old people.
My main concern with Biden is, as more challengers drop out, he gets more speaking time in the next debate.
I think you mean "rambling time"
The next democrat debate is not to till the 15 March, after the 10 March when 6 states vote.
If Biden is lucky, Now that Bloomberg has pulled out Biden will rise in the polls, then sweep those 5 states, and Sanders pulls realizing there is no path to victory pulls out and the debate can be canceled.
May happen,
As Hillary discovered in 2016 Sanders won't pull out until he is forced out, the fact Bloomberg has now backed Biden will just see him turn up the populism even more
The line for rate of increase for each of the Western European countries is quite startling...
Yep. It's really something. Seeing them start to rocket is what made me a wee bit concerned.
It also reveals that of Washington State's 24 cases, 9 are dead. Which seems interesting...
It has to be certain that Washington State's 9 dead are NOT from 24 cases, but from somewhere closer to 300 to 400.
Italy's death rate - the highest in the developed world is 3.2%, and almost the only way lethality could be higher in Washington would be if the quality of care were a great deal worse.
A far likelier explanation is that reporting in the US is running 90% below reality. Which probably means that,the infection rate will get a very great deal worse, because that in turn means 90% of sick people are failing to self-isolate.
Trump's about to have a new Korea scale outbreak on his hands. And on his watch.
Which probably means we now have a real chance of an experienced, centrist politician in the White House next January.
Totally agreed. The scientist behind NextStrain.org said about 6 days ago that there was proof that it'd been circulating in Seattle since late Jan, and was probably doubling every 6.1 days. He said the midpoint prediction was 700 infections at that time. Which translates to 1,400 now.
Since then we've also discovered that there's been multiple strains in Seattle, so that initial prediction was too low.
How many other people slipped through the (non-existent) net in early Feb? 10, 50, 100? Whatever that number is, times it by 1,000 to get an extremely rough estimate of where the US is now. The US's response is terrifying.
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
It is antigenically a slightly different strain, but I don't think Italy is handling it badly. Just unlucky that it hit there first.
Obviously luck is part of it, but also note the hand washing stats from 2015 (someone posted this yesterday but relevant to above question)
He's clear second favourite but if Warren drops out and he faces Biden one on one on a debate stage 7.2 could look like a gift. £25 it is for me.
Could be, but only if he wises us about his electorally nuts 'socialist' self-definition.
"Self-definition" is right. I have a few friends and family who identify as socialists, but the briefest of interrogations reveals that they are not socialist at all - they are strong social democrats (nothing wrong with that). Some people wear "socialist" as a badge of honour.
I can well believe it. It's true of other political labels too, where really it becomes a synonym for 'good' and policies are secondary.
My main concern with Biden is, as more challengers drop out, he gets more speaking time in the next debate.
I think you mean "rambling time"
The next democrat debate is not to till the 15 March, after the 10 March when 6 states vote.
If Biden is lucky, Now that Bloomberg has pulled out Biden will rise in the polls, then sweep those 5 states, and Sanders pulls realizing there is no path to victory pulls out and the debate can be canceled.
May happen,
As Hillary discovered in 2016 Sanders won't pull out until he is forced out
The Telegraph have got that slightly wrong. During the initial outbreak it was the aggressive version that effected 70% of people and has since been on the decrease.
---------
The L type, which is more aggressive, was more prevalent during the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the original epicenter of the virus — and accounted for about 70 percent of analyzed strains. About 30 percent of those strains were linked to the S type, considered less aggressive.
The prevalence of the L type decreased after early January, researchers found. The S type, which is considered an older, “ancestral version” of the coronavirus, has become more common since then.
Like Rhodesia, yes I follow you. I don’t think it would be that bad an idea to limit the franchise to those with a certain level of academic achievement really
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
It is antigenically a slightly different strain, but I don't think Italy is handling it badly. Just unlucky that it hit there first.
Obviously luck is part of it, but also note the hand washing stats from 2015 (someone posted this yesterday but relevant to above question)
In relation to its size Venice might also be the most visited European tourist city for Chinese travellers.
also I seem to remember early on Germany and France had both identified several cases and Italy only 3, which might suggest they weren't as good as spotting the early cases?
I am stunned by how identical Sanders’ situation is to Corbyn. Yet again young people simply do not turn out to vote.
One wonders what it could possibly take to get them to do so short of compulsory voting (which personally I think would be the wrong solution).
How is turnout monitored? Is it done by survey, or looking at who voted? Because lots of young people will be registered in multiple places, Uni and home, yet only vote in one.
Like Rhodesia, yes I follow you. I don’t think it would be that bad an idea to limit the franchise to those with a certain level of academic achievement really
Except that would just lead to the disenfranchised using protest or even violence if necessary to make their voice heard
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
It is antigenically a slightly different strain, but I don't think Italy is handling it badly. Just unlucky that it hit there first.
Obviously luck is part of it, but also note the hand washing stats from 2015 (someone posted this yesterday but relevant to above question)
In relation to its size Venice might also be the most visited European tourist city for Chinese travellers.
Hmm. Not quite sure I accept this outrageous slur about our national hygiene:
The accuracy of the results, however, may be debatable after a 2011 study found that, while 95 per cent of Britons claim to wash their hands after visiting the bathroom, barely a tenth actually do.
Seems ridiculously low to me and how could they possibly verify it?
Like Rhodesia, yes I follow you. I don’t think it would be that bad an idea to limit the franchise to those with a certain level of academic achievement really
Except that would just lead to the disenfranchised using protest or even violence if necessary to make their voice heard
So a certain level of academic or pugilistic achievement perhaps?
Like Rhodesia, yes I follow you. I don’t think it would be that bad an idea to limit the franchise to those with a certain level of academic achievement really
Except that would just lead to the disenfranchised using protest or even violence if necessary to make their voice heard
Or they could study hard to obtain the necessary qualifications
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
It is antigenically a slightly different strain, but I don't think Italy is handling it badly. Just unlucky that it hit there first.
Obviously luck is part of it, but also note the hand washing stats from 2015 (someone posted this yesterday but relevant to above question)
In relation to its size Venice might also be the most visited European tourist city for Chinese travellers.
Hmm. Not quite sure I accept this outrageous slur about our national hygiene:
The accuracy of the results, however, may be debatable after a 2011 study found that, while 95 per cent of Britons claim to wash their hands after visiting the bathroom, barely a tenth actually do.
Seems ridiculously low to me and how could they possibly verify it?
I'm still struggling to understand why Italy seems to have such a worse handle on the situation than so many other places. A different strain ? A different age profile ? Poor organisation ? Different data ? What's the reason.
It is antigenically a slightly different strain, but I don't think Italy is handling it badly. Just unlucky that it hit there first.
Obviously luck is part of it, but also note the hand washing stats from 2015 (someone posted this yesterday but relevant to above question)
In relation to its size Venice might also be the most visited European tourist city for Chinese travellers.
Hmm. Not quite sure I accept this outrageous slur about our national hygiene:
The accuracy of the results, however, may be debatable after a 2011 study found that, while 95 per cent of Britons claim to wash their hands after visiting the bathroom, barely a tenth actually do.
Seems ridiculously low to me and how could they possibly verify it?
Late night pubs after a night out or a football match I reckon 10% might not be far off. During the day in an office or restaurant its probably closer to 90%. Its volatile and dependent on the quality of facilities and alcohol consumed imo.
The line for rate of increase for each of the Western European countries is quite startling...
Yep. It's really something. Seeing them start to rocket is what made me a wee bit concerned.
It also reveals that of Washington State's 24 cases, 9 are dead. Which seems interesting...
It has to be certain that Washington State's 9 dead are NOT from 24 cases, but from somewhere closer to 300 to 400.
Italy's death rate - the highest in the developed world is 3.2%, and almost the only way lethality could be higher in Washington would be if the quality of care were a great deal worse.
A far likelier explanation is that reporting in the US is running 90% below reality. Which probably means that,the infection rate will get a very great deal worse, because that in turn means 90% of sick people are failing to self-isolate.
Trump's about to have a new Korea scale outbreak on his hands. And on his watch.
Which probably means we now have a real chance of an experienced, centrist politician in the White House next January.
Totally agreed. The scientist behind NextStrain.org said about 6 days ago that there was proof that it'd been circulating in Seattle since late Jan, and was probably doubling every 6.1 days. He said the midpoint prediction was 700 infections at that time. Which translates to 1,400 now.
Since then we've also discovered that there's been multiple strains in Seattle, so that initial prediction was too low.
How many other people slipped through the (non-existent) net in early Feb? 10, 50, 100? Whatever that number is, times it by 1,000 to get an extremely rough estimate of where the US is now. The US's response is terrifying.
Against those sorts of US projections, wouldn’t we expect a lot more people actually seriously ill by now?
While Biden is clearly favourite now, should be noted in 1972 George McGovern won California but lost every southern state like Sanders yet still ended up nominee.
His closest rival in the popular vote was also a former VP, Hubert Humphrey
Laid Biden a bit more for the nomination at 1.28 on Ladbrokes exchange. Up roughly equal if he gets that or not, but have a little at 36 for the presidency, so if he does that can get hedged too.
The line for rate of increase for each of the Western European countries is quite startling...
Yep. It's really something. Seeing them start to rocket is what made me a wee bit concerned.
It also reveals that of Washington State's 24 cases, 9 are dead. Which seems interesting...
It has to be certain that Washington State's 9 dead are NOT from 24 cases, but from somewhere closer to 300 to 400.
Italy's death rate - the highest in the developed world is 3.2%, and almost the only way lethality could be higher in Washington would be if the quality of care were a great deal worse.
A far likelier explanation is that reporting in the US is running 90% below reality. Which probably means that,the infection rate will get a very great deal worse, because that in turn means 90% of sick people are failing to self-isolate.
Trump's about to have a new Korea scale outbreak on his hands. And on his watch.
Which probably means we now have a real chance of an experienced, centrist politician in the White House next January.
Totally agreed. The scientist behind NextStrain.org said about 6 days ago that there was proof that it'd been circulating in Seattle since late Jan, and was probably doubling every 6.1 days. He said the midpoint prediction was 700 infections at that time. Which translates to 1,400 now.
Since then we've also discovered that there's been multiple strains in Seattle, so that initial prediction was too low.
How many other people slipped through the (non-existent) net in early Feb? 10, 50, 100? Whatever that number is, times it by 1,000 to get an extremely rough estimate of where the US is now. The US's response is terrifying.
Against those sorts of US projections, wouldn’t we expect a lot more people actually seriously ill by now?
But how would we know about them? It wouldn't be enough to be noticeable given the size of the US / people just carrying on working despite being ill. The thing that shocked me was that there were 2 new cases listed in Washington State yesterday which were people that died on 26th Feb (so a week ago)... So you can have actually died and still not be listed as a case in the US until someone checks later on as you died in the same nursing home as a known outbreak...
Like Rhodesia, yes I follow you. I don’t think it would be that bad an idea to limit the franchise to those with a certain level of academic achievement really
Except that would just lead to the disenfranchised using protest or even violence if necessary to make their voice heard
Or they could study hard to obtain the necessary qualifications
By definition if a qualification threshold is required to vote not everyone will meet it, so some would inevitably resort to other actions if they felt they were being ignored.
Most revolutions have happened when an elite have excluded many of the population from having a say in how the country is run
The line for rate of increase for each of the Western European countries is quite startling...
Yep. It's really something. Seeing them start to rocket is what made me a wee bit concerned.
It also reveals that of Washington State's 24 cases, 9 are dead. Which seems interesting...
It has to be certain that Washington State's 9 dead are NOT from 24 cases, but from somewhere closer to 300 to 400.
Italy's death rate - the highest in the developed world is 3.2%, and almost the only way lethality could be higher in Washington would be if the quality of care were a great deal worse.
A far likelier explanation is that reporting in the US is running 90% below reality. Which probably means that,the infection rate will get a very great deal worse, because that in turn means 90% of sick people are failing to self-isolate.
Trump's about to have a new Korea scale outbreak on his hands. And on his watch.
Which probably means we now have a real chance of an experienced, centrist politician in the White House next January.
Totally agreed. The scientist behind NextStrain.org said about 6 days ago that there was proof that it'd been circulating in Seattle since late Jan, and was probably doubling every 6.1 days. He said the midpoint prediction was 700 infections at that time. Which translates to 1,400 now.
Since then we've also discovered that there's been multiple strains in Seattle, so that initial prediction was too low.
How many other people slipped through the (non-existent) net in early Feb? 10, 50, 100? Whatever that number is, times it by 1,000 to get an extremely rough estimate of where the US is now. The US's response is terrifying.
Against those sorts of US projections, wouldn’t we expect a lot more people actually seriously ill by now?
Potentially, potentially not. What we do know is that this US flu season has been absolutely horrific in the US. So a drop off in the flu season could coincide with the rise of coronavirus cases. Bear in mind that it takes a while for otherwise healthy people to get hospitalisation sick and there's a decent incubation period.
Let's say that there's 15,000 cases in the US, about half would be very recently infected and perhaps not showing signs. 5 days ago there would have been ~7500 cases. Lets say that it takes 5-10 days of being ill before getting further treatment, now we're down to 3700-1875 cases mature enough. Add in a 9% intensive care rate and you're down to 300-170 people being hospitalised for Coronavirus out of a 15,000 total population at the time. That's a drop in the ocean in the US, given that they've completely missed 3 deaths from coronavirus (at least) it doesn't seem completely un-credible.
Like Rhodesia, yes I follow you. I don’t think it would be that bad an idea to limit the franchise to those with a certain level of academic achievement really
The line for rate of increase for each of the Western European countries is quite startling...
Yep. It's really something. Seeing them start to rocket is what made me a wee bit concerned.
It also reveals that of Washington State's 24 cases, 9 are dead. Which seems interesting...
It has to be certain that Washington State's 9 dead are NOT from 24 cases, but from somewhere closer to 300 to 400.
Italy's death rate - the highest in the developed world is 3.2%, and almost the only way lethality could be higher in Washington would be if the quality of care were a great deal worse.
A far likelier explanation is that reporting in the US is running 90% below reality. Which probably means that,the infection rate will get a very great deal worse, because that in turn means 90% of sick people are failing to self-isolate.
Trump's about to have a new Korea scale outbreak on his hands. And on his watch.
Which probably means we now have a real chance of an experienced, centrist politician in the White House next January.
Totally agreed. The scientist behind NextStrain.org said about 6 days ago that there was proof that it'd been circulating in Seattle since late Jan, and was probably doubling every 6.1 days. He said the midpoint prediction was 700 infections at that time. Which translates to 1,400 now.
Since then we've also discovered that there's been multiple strains in Seattle, so that initial prediction was too low.
How many other people slipped through the (non-existent) net in early Feb? 10, 50, 100? Whatever that number is, times it by 1,000 to get an extremely rough estimate of where the US is now. The US's response is terrifying.
Against those sorts of US projections, wouldn’t we expect a lot more people actually seriously ill by now?
Potentially, potentially not. What we do know is that this US flu season has been absolutely horrific in the US. So a drop off in the flu season could coincide with the rise of coronavirus cases. Bear in mind that it takes a while for otherwise healthy people to get hospitalisation sick and there's a decent incubation period.
Let's say that there's 15,000 cases in the US, about half would be very recently infected and perhaps not showing signs. 5 days ago there would have been ~7500 cases. Lets say that it takes 5-10 days of being ill before getting further treatment, now we're down to 3700-1875 cases mature enough. Add in a 9% intensive care rate and you're down to 300-170 people being hospitalised for Coronavirus out of a 15,000 total population at the time. That's a drop in the ocean in the US, given that they've completely missed 3 deaths from coronavirus (at least) it doesn't seem completely un-credible.
If the US ordinary flu has been that bad, you’d expect it to have reduced the pool of people who fall into the most at risk categories for wooflu, making the disparity in death rates even more marked.
Comments
Basically the debate is specifically about timing it right. So there is an escalating series of steps that can be done but the most severe containment they know full well can only be done temporarily, so that is why you don't blow your ammunition prematurely. You can't keep everything shut down forever, so you need to time it right. That's the debate - and now is not right.
The more I think about Biden's potential vulnerability in the debates, the more I think that the fact that is now hard for Sanders, doesn't mean it's already entirely over.
I was quite surprised at the plural too.
It turns out, however, that there is a connection between the two I know and the husband of the third that I was previously unaware of, and that the source of infection is the same for all three.
Pooled antibodies from such patients may prove useful in treatment.
This is exactly what the Chief Medical Officer and Chief Science Officer kept repeating yesterday in their press conference with the Prime Minister.
I think you should look at each bet as a stand-alone entity - forgetting about previous bets you have made.
Do you see Sanders as a good bet at current odds (imagining that you have no interest in this market to date)? If yes, then back him.
It also reveals that of Washington State's 24 cases, 9 are dead. Which seems interesting...
Shit got real, and I bought my ticket yesterday.
https://twitter.com/007/status/1235248760260874241
If Biden is lucky, Now that Bloomberg has pulled out Biden will rise in the polls, then sweep those 5 states, and Sanders pulls realizing there is no path to victory pulls out and the debate can be canceled.
May happen,
So we actually can’t do stats on those sorts of houses and their residents. It’s not something that tends to come up here, so I guess some poor bugger at ONS is going through the same problem for 2021.
I have stockpiled supplies, am making my own alcohol hand gel for the family and have updated my life insurance and will. So yes, a teensy bit worried!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Not him and not necessarily a grate candidate but at least not a socialist.
What's wrong with making MPs beholden to a tiny clique of (usually wealthy and well-educated) people?
There's a reason people are well educated and wealthy, the country should listen to such people.
https://twitter.com/BritishGQ/status/1235252440875888645
The Chinese didn't start welding people into apartments for shits and giggles.
We are all going to need a strong mind over the next few months.
Italy's death rate - the highest in the developed world is 3.2%, and almost the only way lethality could be higher in Washington would be if the quality of care were a great deal worse.
A far likelier explanation is that reporting in the US is running 90% below reality. Which probably means that,the infection rate will get a very great deal worse, because that in turn means 90% of sick people are failing to self-isolate.
Trump's about to have a new Korea scale outbreak on his hands. And on his watch.
Which probably means we now have a real chance of an experienced, centrist politician in the White House next January.
This suggests that there's maybe 5-10 times as many cases as they've found so far out there, and it is spreading quicker than they're testing. In other words it's out there.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1235229236073582594?s=20
3089 infected since the beginning of the outbreak
276 healed
107 dead
297 in intensive care
1346 in hospital
1065 isolated at home
More seriously, I find the fetishisation of membership size by some another sign of being overly concerned with members above all others. Important people, lifeblood of a party, any party, but there are limits.
poor organisation - sure. at least what I know from close family members who live there, and from the 2 years that I lived in Milan.
the health system is patchy.
lots of old people.
Since then we've also discovered that there's been multiple strains in Seattle, so that initial prediction was too low.
How many other people slipped through the (non-existent) net in early Feb? 10, 50, 100? Whatever that number is, times it by 1,000 to get an extremely rough estimate of where the US is now. The US's response is terrifying.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/the-european-countries-that-wash-their-hands-least-after-going-to-the-toilet-a6757711.html
In relation to its size Venice might also be the most visited European tourist city for Chinese travellers.
---------
The L type, which is more aggressive, was more prevalent during the early stages of the outbreak in Wuhan — the original epicenter of the virus — and accounted for about 70 percent of analyzed strains. About 30 percent of those strains were linked to the S type, considered less aggressive.
The prevalence of the L type decreased after early January, researchers found. The S type, which is considered an older, “ancestral version” of the coronavirus, has become more common since then.
The accuracy of the results, however, may be debatable after a 2011 study found that, while 95 per cent of Britons claim to wash their hands after visiting the bathroom, barely a tenth actually do.
Seems ridiculously low to me and how could they possibly verify it?
His closest rival in the popular vote was also a former VP, Hubert Humphrey
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries
Most revolutions have happened when an elite have excluded many of the population from having a say in how the country is run
Let's say that there's 15,000 cases in the US, about half would be very recently infected and perhaps not showing signs. 5 days ago there would have been ~7500 cases. Lets say that it takes 5-10 days of being ill before getting further treatment, now we're down to 3700-1875 cases mature enough. Add in a 9% intensive care rate and you're down to 300-170 people being hospitalised for Coronavirus out of a 15,000 total population at the time. That's a drop in the ocean in the US, given that they've completely missed 3 deaths from coronavirus (at least) it doesn't seem completely un-credible.
Gets my vote.....