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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From a 4.9% betting chance to 75% one in just nine days – Bide

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Starmer recommits to nationalising everything. Bloody hell.

    No wonder Long Bailey is not gaining any traction with the left.
    I had almost forgotten that the Never Ending Labour Leadership contest still winds its weary way down to the special conference that will now be cancelled.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    The absolute irony of this deeply stupid post

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1235268044470898688?s=20


    This guy was one of the biggest Project Fearmongers against Brexit. Now he wants to dismiss coronavirus as media hype

    I think he is wrong; generally the scarier a CV headline, the more boringly authoritative the source turns out to be. There's a shedload of *really* frightening stuff from China and Iran on twitter, but it isn't breaking through to MSM. Indeed, I am struck by the lack of reporting from Our Man On The Spot in Wuhan or Tehran: having that footage either confirmed, or debunked, by a reliable source would clarify things a lot.
    Yep. The experts have been the 'doomers' for a while. They look to be right. Italy hitting 100 deaths today is not good.

    Deaths per day in Italy (today first):

    +28, +27, +11, +12, +8, +4.

    As I type this the US confirm their 10th and 11th deaths in WA and CA.
  • ydoethur said:

    alex_ said:

    Starmer recommits to nationalising everything. Bloody hell.

    No wonder Long Bailey is not gaining any traction with the left.
    I had almost forgotten that the Never Ending Labour Leadership contest still winds its weary way down to the special conference that will now be cancelled.
    Brillo is giving RLB a light toasting just now.

    She's currently claiming that the electorate weren't able to understand their policies.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    The absolute irony of this deeply stupid post

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1235268044470898688?s=20


    This guy was one of the biggest Project Fearmongers against Brexit. Now he wants to dismiss coronavirus as media hype

    I think he is wrong; generally the scarier a CV headline, the more boringly authoritative the source turns out to be. There's a shedload of *really* frightening stuff from China and Iran on twitter, but it isn't breaking through to MSM. Indeed, I am struck by the lack of reporting from Our Man On The Spot in Wuhan or Tehran: having that footage either confirmed, or debunked, by a reliable source would clarify things a lot.
    Who is this Melville fellow?

    I reckon his tweet will look spectacularly wrong in a month's time.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    eadric said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    eadric said:

    The absolute irony of this deeply stupid post

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1235268044470898688?s=20


    This guy was one of the biggest Project Fearmongers against Brexit. Now he wants to dismiss coronavirus as media hype

    I think he is wrong; generally the scarier a CV headline, the more boringly authoritative the source turns out to be. There's a shedload of *really* frightening stuff from China and Iran on twitter, but it isn't breaking through to MSM. Indeed, I am struck by the lack of reporting from Our Man On The Spot in Wuhan or Tehran: having that footage either confirmed, or debunked, by a reliable source would clarify things a lot.
    Indeed so. In fact I am fairly sure there is a MSM campaign (at least in some parts) to keep everyone calm, by being frugal with the truth.

    eg BBC TV news consistently says "yes it is nasty but only 1% die and 80-85% have a very mild attack or no symptoms at all".

    This is at best misleading, if not an outright lie. They make no mention of the TEN percent who become dangerously ill (which, as we all know, is the real concern - as they will collapse health systems). And the 1% fatality figure (which they use all the time) is highly dubious. At the moment the WHO's best guess for a mortality rate is 3.4%. A big big difference.

    So yes he's wrong on several levels.
    It’s not so much whether it’s “only” 1% or 3%. The point is that 1% is actually a much bigger number than it sounds.

    The thing NOBODY mentions is what happens if there’s a mutation. Those countries that let the current virus run rampant could end up like looking like visionaries! Read about 1918 flu on Wikipedia. Basically it mutated in Summer and became much more dangerous. There is reference to Sweden being large unaffected because the earlier version and swept through them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    I would now switch to saying #fuckoffclinton but she never arrived so that doesn’t really work.

    If I were willing to risk another 5 grand (I’m not) I’d sell her for another £100 of profit.

    There may be others on here with deep pockets who will though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    Those looking for value on Sanders would probably be best considering the 20/1 on him to be Next President.

    That is actually rather tasty.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    nichomar said:

    Interesting to know how many posters on here had parents that were interested in politics, watched the news and reacted to it. We are quick to claim young people just are not interested but are the just reflecting their parents?

    My parents had a normal interest in politics. My mum is a Conservative of the Christian Democrat type (she disapproves of Boris Johnson). My dad proudly boasted of being a promiscuous floating voter. They talked about politics occasionally. It was not a big part of home life though.

    My mum knows I bet on politics, essentially disapproves but occasionally coyly asks me what I think is going to happen about some events. I usually disappoint her with my lack of certainty.
    My father was a union man who who hated Labour and the unions AND hated corporations and their profits but voted conservative. Mum was essentially apolitical. But we always had the news on (which in those days was not part of the entertainment division) and always had at least 2 daily newspapers.

    My own political awakening started at age 7 with the 6-day war, which was happening less than 100 miles away from us (in Cyprus at the time). My first recollection of a purely British political issue (other than Aden, unavoidable as all my classmates were service brats) was shortly thereafter, with the 1967 sterling devaluation. I do recall my father ranting at the dinner table about this.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    I’ve been a bit bemused by the media’s reading of the Super Tuesday results (that said, admittedly my reading has been largely from UK sources who, as we know, try very hard but oftentimes are rather poor at US politics).

    The BBC even suggested Bernie had a good night. Well, compared to Bloomberg and Warren I suppose he did, but from the point of view of securing the nomination (what all this is about) it surely cannot be seen as anything other than poor.

    Coming off the back of the early states this was his chance to get the nomination sewn up, or at least put enough distance between himself and Biden that he looked like the frontrunner. He has ended the night behind in the delegate count and losing Texas. But California! The media cry. Yes, but although delegate heavy it is one state and he didn’t scythe through it enough to give himself the substantial lead in delegates he needed.

    As of today, Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee. It could change, but he has a pretty good lead in delegates, the state voting patterns look good for him, and he’s got the Democratic establishment and ex candidates all coming out for him.

    It’s Bidens to lose. And a week ago that would have sounded bizarre. That is why Bernie lost Super Tuesday.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Anyway, I’m now at the point where I’ve got three people at third degrees of separation who have Covid-19.

    I was at a business meeting today where only one person (my client) was shaking hands.

    It’s closing in. I just hope my usual strong constitution works in my favour.
  • I know it is immaterial now, but RLB is absolutely drowning on the Andrew Neil show.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,602
    Does anyone know whether northern Italy has an older median age than the rest of the country?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know whether northern Italy has an older median age than the rest of the country?

    I believe so yes.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    eadric said:

    Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan and Taiwan are NOT seeing the exponential growth of western Europe (including, sadly, the UK)

    WHAT are they doing and why aren't we doing it?

    Or are they lying, or not testing?

    Japan isn't testing. Singapore is doing massive contract tracing and surveillance.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    I think you'll have to look closely at the potential for huge disenfranchisement from the younger generations regarding the presidential election. Although candidates dropping out and endorsing one another is par for the course in nominations. This campaign against Sanders looks coordinated and could be a huge wedge against sucking it up and voting Democrat no matter what.

    The Sanders support is hugely vocal and very involved and will tie supporters of all demographics strongly to this one candidate. If Biden comes out of a contested convention after Bernie is close or equal on delegates there will be a lot of anger and strong memories of 2016. A perfect Trump wedge issue

    'They cheated you again!' 'Cheating Joe and his son' 'Corrupt Dems at it again' etc etc
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    US has a "small" number of cases in Pentagon

    Increases in cases just today and new totals from some non headline making countries

    Switzerland +32 (90)
    Norway +23 (56)
    Sweden +22 (52)
    Holland +15 (38)

    Really taking off across Europe now
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    I know it is immaterial now, but RLB is absolutely drowning on the Andrew Neil show.

    Keep calm, and carry on losing.

  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    We should not be looking to governments to control events, it really does come down to individual behavior. Wash your hands, avoid crowds, buy sensibly to ensure adequate provisions without mass stock piling. Use a hand gel if you can get it. Some things can’t be avoided like the tube but then if you show any signs of flu stay at home. Don’t take the piss thinking it’s a good excuse for a long weekend, think twice about going to A&E with trivial issues etc etc etc Many could suffer, not from the virus but from the senseless utilization of health services which could have been avoided.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    eadric said:

    Just to underline this difference:


    Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

    Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

    A startling contrast.

    Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2020
    nichomar said:

    We should not be looking to governments to control events, it really does come down to individual behavior. Wash your hands, avoid crowds, buy sensibly to ensure adequate provisions without mass stock piling. Use a hand gel if you can get it. Some things can’t be avoided like the tube but then if you show any signs of flu stay at home. Don’t take the piss thinking it’s a good excuse for a long weekend, think twice about going to A&E with trivial issues etc etc etc Many could suffer, not from the virus but from the senseless utilization of health services which could have been avoided.

    The tube can be avoided! I have managed it for 25 years
  • nichomar said:

    We should not be looking to governments to control events, it really does come down to individual behavior. Wash your hands, avoid crowds, buy sensibly to ensure adequate provisions without mass stock piling. Use a hand gel if you can get it. Some things can’t be avoided like the tube but then if you show any signs of flu stay at home. Don’t take the piss thinking it’s a good excuse for a long weekend, think twice about going to A&E with trivial issues etc etc etc Many could suffer, not from the virus but from the senseless utilization of health services which could have been avoided.

    Very sensible
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    edited March 2020

    Anyway, I’m now at the point where I’ve got three people at third degrees of separation who have Covid-19.

    I was at a business meeting today where only one person (my client) was shaking hands.

    It’s closing in. I just hope my usual strong constitution works in my favour.

    Don't forget there are only six degrees of separation: the small world effect in networks.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,120
    eadric said:

    Just to underline this difference:


    Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

    Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

    A startling contrast.

    It is probably more likely that Italy got it a long time before February.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,910
    Monkeys said:

    Remember when we worried about a No-Deal Brexit, comparable to That Time It Snowed but a little longer? Good times!

    I've said on here several times in the last year or so that if Brexit was the biggest problem we had to deal with in the medium-term that we would be a fortunate country.

    I sincerely wish that I had not been proven right so soon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    eadric said:

    Chameleon said:

    eadric said:

    Just to underline this difference:


    Italy got its first case of corona on February 20th. It now has 2546 cases, with 160 recovered, and 79 deaths.

    Singapore got its first case of corona on January 21st (a month EARLIER). It now has 112 cases, with 78 recovered, and zero deaths

    A startling contrast.

    Your Italy figures don't have today yet. 3,089 cases, 107 deaths.
    Grim
    3.4%
  • glwglw Posts: 9,910

    Andy_JS said:

    This didn't count for much in the end.

    twitter.com/Zigmanfreud/status/1233899404517527552

    They are getting a shock like all the Corybnistas here...
    But everyone on Twitter Reddit supports Sanders.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    New thread folks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    https://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/trump-s-confusion-display-during-meeting-pharmaceutical-execs-n1147766

    And some on here are worried that Biden may be forgetful and a bit rambling.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Andy_JS said:

    Does anyone know whether northern Italy has an older median age than the rest of the country?

    At a guess, not, because it is where the jobs are
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    eadric said:

    isam said:
    We should be doing that here. Now. Why are we still hosting France in a massive rugby match, with tens of thousands of visitors?!?!

    Nuts.
    You’ll be excited to learn that it’s a real possibility that a number of major airports across northern Italy will, in the next 48 hours, announce that they are closing for an undefined period.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    I know it is immaterial now, but RLB is absolutely drowning on the Andrew Neil show.

    Has she explained how she was defending the NHS from evil Tory predators through the medium of commercial property transactions?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,484
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    isam said:
    We should be doing that here. Now. Why are we still hosting France in a massive rugby match, with tens of thousands of visitors?!?!

    Nuts.
    As the expert said this morning, pushing people into pubs and front rooms to watch it on TV is more risky. In an open air stadium the worst is that a carrier infects the people sitting either side. So it’s cancel, or hold, not hold with no audience.
    I suppose it's out of the question to test people as they come in?
This discussion has been closed.