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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Tuesday: With just over four hours to go before the coun

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited March 2020 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Super Tuesday: With just over four hours to go before the counts begin Biden opens big gap in the betting

To give an idea of the sheer scale of tonight’s primary elections a total of 1,344 will be decided compared with the 1,991 pledged delegates that will be required to win the Democratic nomination on the first ballot.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    First like Biden
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Philippines only had 3 cases in total!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Philippines only had 3 cases in total!
    What happened to the 1%? :o
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    India has only had 6 cases so far despite a similar population to China.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Biden will be taking over a broken, deeply scared country.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Titanic, Lusitania, Costa Concordia, Gammon Princess: passenger ships don't seem to hit the headlines for the right reasons ever.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    India has only had 6 cases so far despite a similar population to China.

    I read somewhere that India has 25000 people under close watch but I might beverong
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    I honestly think this is crap data. It depends so heavily on the testing protocol in each country - how easy it is to get a test and who is called in for a test and why.

    And none of us know how many people are infected but are asymptomatic, or have such mild symptoms that they don’t bother to seek help or a test, but simply get better on their own.

    Had you had your panic about your own cold at a later, more credible date, you could have been one of the latter.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    edited March 2020

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.

    Edit: Same but bigger.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    RobD said:

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Philippines only had 3 cases in total!
    What happened to the 1%? :o
    That death was the first outside China. Several weeks ago.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Far more interesting for me is a breakdown of death by age.

    If you're under 50 you have a 0.4% chance of dying. Under 40 and it's 0.2%.

    Which of course means if you're older and you catch this your chances of dying of this are much, much higher. Probably 10% or more for the boomers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    kyf_100 said:

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Far more interesting for me is a breakdown of death by age.

    If you're under 50 you have a 0.4% chance of dying. Under 40 and it's 0.2%.

    Which of course means if you're older and you catch this your chances of dying of this are much, much higher. Probably 10% or more for the boomers.
    Boomers are in their 50s and 60s, very early 70s at most. It’s the 75+’s that are at risk.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Sanders plan would never get through the Senate anyway.

    Restoring Obamacare would be a good start.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    FPT

    Amid all the hyperventilating about Covid-19, one piece of substantial unrelated news seems to have been missed:

    https://twitter.com/theothebald/status/1234832241488023552?s=21

    It's closing, but it doesn't need to be announced yet as they still want people to purchase Vauxhall cars.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    kyf_100 said:

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Far more interesting for me is a breakdown of death by age.

    If you're under 50 you have a 0.4% chance of dying. Under 40 and it's 0.2%.

    Which of course means if you're older and you catch this your chances of dying of this are much, much higher. Probably 10% or more for the boomers.
    The death rate will be directly related to the ability of the state system to cope with it, when the health service is overloaded then age will become less relevant. Hence the 2%/ rate in Italy where they are under pressure.
  • IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
    Alternatively it might leave them wanting decisiveness. BIden is the relaxing, reassuring uncle figure, I think, not the man of action.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
    Alternatively it might leave them wanting decisiveness. BIden is the relaxing, reassuring uncle figure, I think, not the man of action.
    None of them are decisive. Claiming it’s a hoax, and then promising a million tests you cannot deliver isn’t decisive.
  • Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    Sanders.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,102
    edited March 2020
    BBC rubbish on sport. Using playback and miss the scoring of Chelsea goal

    Amateurs
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Sanders plan would never get through the Senate anyway.

    Restoring Obamacare would be a good start.
    Yep. Sanders is not LBJ. He has no idea how he would work the two houses to actually deliver anything.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    I hope you are wrong Philip, because I am off to California in May, but I am worried you are going to be right.

    HYUFD re post at end of previous thread in response to Robert, just because someone is recklessness, that doesn't mean it is ok for others to be so also on the basis 'it wasn't my fault in the first place'. I assume for instance, like any responsible driver, you drive defencelessly. It is not much consolation, when you are dead, to know that the coroner will lays the blame for your death on the other driver.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176

    BBC rubbish on sport. Using playback and miss the scoring of Chelsea goal

    Amateurs

    Atrocious, though Sky have been guilty of that in the past.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    BBC rubbish on sport. Using playback and miss the scoring of Chelsea goal

    Amateurs

    Unfair. They got the goal. Just.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
    Alternatively it might leave them wanting decisiveness. BIden is the relaxing, reassuring uncle figure, I think, not the man of action.
    Agree it could go either way.

    But seeing as I am in an ocean of red on Sanders and we all might be dead by end of June I have thrown some caution to the wind and doubled down on Biden.

    Tonight is going to be interesting.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I have taken a risk and topped up on Bernie. I feel that a strong showing by Bernie (expected by me given the high levels of early voting) will send this skittish market stampeding right back to feeling the Bern.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    As NHS goes to DefCon 4, the Corbyn Cult continue their pointless war on all who don't see him as the second coming.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1234931660359184385
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    Alistair said:

    I have taken a risk and topped up on Bernie. I feel that a strong showing by Bernie (expected by me given the high levels of early voting) will send this skittish market stampeding right back to feeling the Bern.

    Excellent. We appear to differ. Let the best bettor win!! :smiley:
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited March 2020
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
    Alternatively it might leave them wanting decisiveness. BIden is the relaxing, reassuring uncle figure, I think, not the man of action.
    None of them are decisive. Claiming it’s a hoax, and then promising a million tests you cannot deliver isn’t decisive.
    Sanders' maximalist position on healthcare has the potential to sound very decisive to voters in the midst of a crisis, even if he can't get it enacted. It could take the edge off the 'extreme' attacks if voters thought they were in a situation that demanded radical solutions.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    I don't see how the USA could remotely enforce the sort of lock downs China has done to get control. There's probably a lot of folks willing to test their constitutional right to wander around coughing and sneezing.

    Plus - guns.

    Plus - election year.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935

    As NHS goes to DefCon 4, the Corbyn Cult continue their pointless war on all who don't see him as the second coming.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1234931660359184385

    Who can blame them for being angry? The whole Corbyn project is going down in flames :p
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    I hope you are wrong Philip, because I am off to California in May, but I am worried you are going to be right.

    HYUFD re post at end of previous thread in response to Robert, just because someone is recklessness, that doesn't mean it is ok for others to be so also on the basis 'it wasn't my fault in the first place'. I assume for instance, like any responsible driver, you drive defencelessly. It is not much consolation, when you are dead, to know that the coroner will lays the blame for your death on the other driver.
    The blame still lies though with the other driver
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    I honestly think this is crap data. It depends so heavily on the testing protocol in each country - how easy it is to get a test and who is called in for a test and why.

    And none of us know how many people are infected but are asymptomatic, or have such mild symptoms that they don’t bother to seek help or a test, but simply get better on their own.

    Had you had your panic about your own cold at a later, more credible date, you could have been one of the latter.
    America likely has many more affected then those figures show, but people aren't getting tested because they don't have universal healthcare.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1234931839317561347
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    nichomar said:

    India has only had 6 cases so far despite a similar population to China.

    I read somewhere that India has 25000 people under close watch but I might beverong
    Oops make that 7 cases.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,767
    RobD said:

    As NHS goes to DefCon 4, the Corbyn Cult continue their pointless war on all who don't see him as the second coming.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1234931660359184385

    Who can blame them for being angry? The whole Corbyn project is going down in flames :p
    Shame it has taken so long.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    I hope you are wrong Philip, because I am off to California in May, but I am worried you are going to be right.

    HYUFD re post at end of previous thread in response to Robert, just because someone is recklessness, that doesn't mean it is ok for others to be so also on the basis 'it wasn't my fault in the first place'. I assume for instance, like any responsible driver, you drive defencelessly. It is not much consolation, when you are dead, to know that the coroner will lays the blame for your death on the other driver.
    defensively,
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    Sanders.
    Plus he may have added knowledge of govt-run healthcare because his older brother Larry (85) lives in Oxford & is Green Party health spokesman.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
    Alternatively it might leave them wanting decisiveness. BIden is the relaxing, reassuring uncle figure, I think, not the man of action.
    None of them are decisive. Claiming it’s a hoax, and then promising a million tests you cannot deliver isn’t decisive.
    Sanders' maximalist position on healthcare has the potential to sound very decisive to voters in the midst of a crisis, even if he can't get it enacted. It could take the edge off the 'extreme' attacks if voters thought they were in a situation that demanded radical solutions.
    I suspect all the Dems will need to do by November is have Trump calling the virus a hoax on permanent loop. The man is a grade A moron but that one is really gaining to come back and bite him on his extremely ample backside.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Philippines only had 3 cases in total!
    Phillipinos do rather like very large Easter Masses, and quite a few go back from overseas work to see family. One of our nurses is off next week, but many others work in the Gulf and Korea.

    It seems a toxic mix to me. The Isle of Wight is much nicer at Easter...
  • HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    You are fighting a losing battle
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
    Alternatively it might leave them wanting decisiveness. BIden is the relaxing, reassuring uncle figure, I think, not the man of action.
    None of them are decisive. Claiming it’s a hoax, and then promising a million tests you cannot deliver isn’t decisive.
    Sanders' maximalist position on healthcare has the potential to sound very decisive to voters in the midst of a crisis, even if he can't get it enacted. It could take the edge off the 'extreme' attacks if voters thought they were in a situation that demanded radical solutions.
    It would be nice to think that a silver lining to this crisis will be waking Americans up to the idea that collective action and government intervention can be a force for good, and indeed without either any society has big vulnerabilities.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Sanders plan would never get through the Senate anyway.

    Restoring Obamacare would be a good start.
    It can pass through reconciliation, which only needs 50 votes in the Senate plus vp. Obamacare always had massive holes in it.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    As NHS goes to DefCon 4, the Corbyn Cult continue their pointless war on all who don't see him as the second coming.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1234931660359184385

    My Trust is on OPEL4, the new euphemism for Black Alert since the weekend, but just normal pressures. Spare capacity is going to be an issue...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880

    I don't see how the USA could remotely enforce the sort of lock downs China has done to get control. There's probably a lot of folks willing to test their constitutional right to wander around coughing and sneezing.

    Plus - guns.

    Plus - election year.

    "Face masks? We are dressed in our finest and intend to go down as gentlemen!"
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Good night one and all tomorrow is another day. What will be will be good luck in fighting your own personal battles, let us try to seek a consensus on this virus issue, is it all hype? I know not but it is silly that we continue to argue from a left and right perspective. My own view is it’s a real threat. It can be managed but the danger needs to be recognized and quickly. Take personal responsibility for your own health and ability to Limit the spread Of it without panicking. Remember that sensible people act sensibly!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    I hope you are wrong Philip, because I am off to California in May, but I am worried you are going to be right.

    HYUFD re post at end of previous thread in response to Robert, just because someone is recklessness, that doesn't mean it is ok for others to be so also on the basis 'it wasn't my fault in the first place'. I assume for instance, like any responsible driver, you drive defencelessly. It is not much consolation, when you are dead, to know that the coroner will lays the blame for your death on the other driver.
    The blame still lies though with the other driver
    Yep. Hasn't done you much good though has it if you are dead?

    Corollary: Just because China screwed up, it doesn't let America off the hook for screwing up also. Not a lot of consolation to a dead American who dies because of his own Govt's incompetence to know that if China hadn't of started it he would still be alive.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,205
    Alistair said:

    I have taken a risk and topped up on Bernie. I feel that a strong showing by Bernie (expected by me given the high levels of early voting) will send this skittish market stampeding right back to feeling the Bern.

    That's a bold play considering the likely timing of each candidates vote to come in
  • nichomar said:

    Good night one and all tomorrow is another day. What will be will be good luck in fighting your own personal battles, let us try to seek a consensus on this virus issue, is it all hype? I know not but it is silly that we continue to argue from a left and right perspective. My own view is it’s a real threat. It can be managed but the danger needs to be recognized and quickly. Take personal responsibility for your own health and ability to Limit the spread Of it without panicking. Remember that sensible people act sensibly!

    Well said and have a good nights rest
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    As NHS goes to DefCon 4, the Corbyn Cult continue their pointless war on all who don't see him as the second coming.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1234931660359184385

    They are talking (or arguing) at cross purposes, but as you say, it is all rather pointless now.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    You are fighting a losing battle
    No I am not, the facts are clear, coronavirus started in China due to the Chinese government's failure to ban open meat markets and experiments on bats.

    End of conversation
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    Foxy said:

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    Philippines only had 3 cases in total!
    Phillipinos do rather like very large Easter Masses, and quite a few go back from overseas work to see family. One of our nurses is off next week, but many others work in the Gulf and Korea.

    It seems a toxic mix to me. The Isle of Wight is much nicer at Easter...
    Note that visitors from North Island are only welcome if they present a negative Corona result before boarding the ferry..... ;)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    As NHS goes to DefCon 4, the Corbyn Cult continue their pointless war on all who don't see him as the second coming.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1234931660359184385

    Who or what is he responding to?
  • HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    No. It is stupid not to accept Trump is putting his citizens at risk of their lives
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775

    I don't see how the USA could remotely enforce the sort of lock downs China has done to get control. There's probably a lot of folks willing to test their constitutional right to wander around coughing and sneezing.

    Plus - guns.

    Plus - election year.

    "Face masks? We are dressed in our finest and intend to go down as gentlemen!"
    Probably ineffectual anyway.

    All getting infected at the same time is better anyway. A virus that can hang on and wait until Mr Safe takes off his mask is a virus with a future. The best thing is to make the virus' time-window small.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    eadric said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Just topped up on Biden for POTUS. My thinking is that a major, major crisis will leave voters scared and desperate for experience, stability and normal. Not Crazy Bernie and not 'there is no virus' Trump.

    Ike again?
    Alternatively it might leave them wanting decisiveness. BIden is the relaxing, reassuring uncle figure, I think, not the man of action.
    None of them are decisive. Claiming it’s a hoax, and then promising a million tests you cannot deliver isn’t decisive.
    Sanders' maximalist position on healthcare has the potential to sound very decisive to voters in the midst of a crisis, even if he can't get it enacted. It could take the edge off the 'extreme' attacks if voters thought they were in a situation that demanded radical solutions.
    It would be nice to think that a silver lining to this crisis will be waking Americans up to the idea that collective action and government intervention can be a force for good, and indeed without either any society has big vulnerabilities.
    I think Southam is right. One consequence of this virus, as and when it finally buggers off, will be a dramatic shift left towards bigger government, socialized medicine, and so on. This will be true even and maybe especially in America.

    Same as after WW2
    We already have socialised medicine in the UK and one of Boris' main campaign themes was more money for it, even Trump wants healthcare reform.

    However waiting in line for your state hand out medical treatment alone is not the solution to healthcare issues, the patient also needs choice, alternative private options and a second opinion
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    You are fighting a losing battle
    No I am not, the facts are clear, coronavirus started in China due to the Chinese government's failure to ban open meat markets and experiments on bats.

    End of conversation
    Don't think anyone has disagreed with you on that.

    Where people disagree with you is the fact that you won't accept that there can be subsidiary blame on countries that don't act well in containing subsequently.

    That appears to be the case with Iran, and now America is, on the face of it, not looking to have acted very well so far. You seem to be of the view that there is no responsibility on these countries to do the right thing.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,932

    At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.

    To be fair, the topic is that we shan't know anything for another few hours.
  • At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.

    Actually, I think that maybe an understatement
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Tonight may be the night where I change my twitter byline from #fuckoffbloomberg to #fuckoffhillary
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    No. It is stupid not to accept Trump is putting his citizens at risk of their lives

    Until about ten days ago Trump was calling the Virus a hoax...then it hit the markets...

    The poor preparation by the US to manage the epidemic may prove to be one of the worst policy decisions in the history of mankind
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    I have taken a risk and topped up on Bernie. I feel that a strong showing by Bernie (expected by me given the high levels of early voting) will send this skittish market stampeding right back to feeling the Bern.

    That's a bold play considering the likely timing of each candidates vote to come in
    I'm still green on Biden, Bernie and Warren (the dream lives on) so I'm just taking a cushioned gamble at getting a bit more money on the main players
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    If you're going to top up on Sanders I'd suggest that it's better to do so on the Next President market at 7.4s.

    Those seem good odds to me because if he makes it through the convention he should be in a good position to take on Trump.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    Well then we disagree. Time will tell.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    nunu2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    I honestly think this is crap data. It depends so heavily on the testing protocol in each country - how easy it is to get a test and who is called in for a test and why.

    And none of us know how many people are infected but are asymptomatic, or have such mild symptoms that they don’t bother to seek help or a test, but simply get better on their own.

    Had you had your panic about your own cold at a later, more credible date, you could have been one of the latter.
    America likely has many more affected then those figures show, but people aren't getting tested because they don't have universal healthcare.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1234931839317561347
    I have little to no doubt that the US is less than a week away from 10,000 cases, most of them stealth. And remember, every 6 days they don't catch a case, it doubles.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    To be fair the only one of those where we know (or can be confadant ish) that all cases where found and tested is the Diamond Princess, which at 0.85% is the second lowest.

    it may not be a good predictor as the age profile of its customers was probably not an accurate reflection of any contrary..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,935
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    No. It is stupid not to accept Trump is putting his citizens at risk of their lives

    Until about ten days ago Trump was calling the Virus a hoax...then it hit the markets...

    The poor preparation by the US to manage the epidemic may prove to be one of the worst policy decisions in the history of mankind
    What is it with hyperbole these days? Everything is the worst ever. I think you'll find plenty more examples of government incompetence throughout the ages.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    I have taken a risk and topped up on Bernie. I feel that a strong showing by Bernie (expected by me given the high levels of early voting) will send this skittish market stampeding right back to feeling the Bern.

    That's a bold play considering the likely timing of each candidates vote to come in
    I'm still green on Biden, Bernie and Warren (the dream lives on) so I'm just taking a cushioned gamble at getting a bit more money on the main players
    I have a hope that common sense somehow will pull Warren through the process...the way she duffed up Bloomberg was outstanding....she is much more authentic, credible and an all round better performer than Clinton.....
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,680
    BigRich said:

    As NHS goes to DefCon 4, the Corbyn Cult continue their pointless war on all who don't see him as the second coming.

    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1234931660359184385

    Who or what is he responding to?
    Someone who claimed that Rentoul claimed that Corbyn was anti-Semitic and demanded Rentoul provide evidence of this. But Rentoul claimed he never claimed that Corbyn was anti-semtic and so asking for evidence was a poor show.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.

    Actually, I think that maybe an understatement
    I mean, it's a betting site and it's a huge betting night tonight.

    It's just rude. Unless the subject is pertinent to the betting.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    No, it would be stupid to blame China for this - not because it is wrong to do so but because it's a waste of time. If you like analogies consider a case where a convicted killer. out on parole, kills someone. The killer is more blameworthy than the parole board but that doesn't make the parole board blameless, and blaming the board might lead to improvements in the way it does things in future. What do hope to achieve by telling a multiple killer that he's a really bad person?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    nichomar said:

    India has only had 6 cases so far despite a similar population to China.

    I read somewhere that India has 25000 people under close watch but I might beverong
    Saw your news. Thoughts are with you.

    Hang in there pal.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    RobD said:

    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    No. It is stupid not to accept Trump is putting his citizens at risk of their lives

    Until about ten days ago Trump was calling the Virus a hoax...then it hit the markets...

    The poor preparation by the US to manage the epidemic may prove to be one of the worst policy decisions in the history of mankind
    What is it with hyperbole these days? Everything is the worst ever. I think you'll find plenty more examples of government incompetence throughout the ages.
    A major rule of thumb is you don't fuck around with a pandemic....hopefully it'll be alright, but it could be utterly catastrophic.....best just to err on the side of safety
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited March 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    No, it would be stupid to blame China for this - not because it is wrong to do so but because it's a waste of time. If you like analogies consider a case where a convicted killer. out on parole, kills someone. The killer is more blameworthy than the parole board but that doesn't make the parole board blameless, and blaming the board might lead to improvements in the way it does things in future. What do hope to achieve by telling a multiple killer that he's a really bad person?
    Prevent them from doing it again backed up by life imprisonment this time and if necessary sanctions against China will have to be considered by the global community once this outbreak has been dealt with if it still refuses to stop live meat markets and allow experiments on bats
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    You are fighting a losing battle
    No I am not, the facts are clear, coronavirus started in China due to the Chinese government's failure to ban open meat markets and experiments on bats.

    End of conversation
    Its also irrelevant.

    A heart attack may be triggered by a lack of exercise and a bad diet but if the ambulance never turns up after repeated calls and it turns out there are no ambulances available anywhere in the country then something has gone wrong with those responsible for the ambulance service.

    We have done well over 10k tests before the USA even hit 500 tests. While NYC had done zero tests. NYC did its first tests yesterday.

    Do you think NYC has no travel to China? There's no Chinese resident in NYC which has one of the worlds most famous Chinatowns?
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.

    Actually, I think that maybe an understatement
    I mean, it's a betting site and it's a huge betting night tonight.

    It's just rude. Unless the subject is pertinent to the betting.
    What time (UK) do we get the first exit poll? and for where Main?
  • Dow down 800 - about 3%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    BigRich said:

    eadric said:

    OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)


    China: 3.67%

    Korea: 0.66%

    Italy: 3.16%

    Iran: 3.3%

    Diamond Princess: 0.85%

    Japan: 2.05%

    France: 1.96%

    USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)

    Hong Kong: 1.98%

    Thailand: 2.08%

    Taiwan: 2.44%

    Australia:2.56%

    San Marino: 10%

    The Philippines: 33%



    What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.

    And also, don't go to the Philippines.

    To be fair the only one of those where we know (or can be confadant ish) that all cases where found and tested is the Diamond Princess, which at 0.85% is the second lowest.

    it may not be a good predictor as the age profile of its customers was probably not an accurate reflection of any contrary..
    I would expect the age profile on the Princess to push the death rate up.

    The discrepancies between the data are best explained by a lot of people carrying the virus but having no symptoms worse than a common cold, so not bothering to go for a test.

    The good news is that the death rate is then much lower than any of these figures. The bad news is that the infection rate is higher.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited March 2020

    At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.

    Actually, I think that maybe an understatement
    I mean, it's a betting site and it's a huge betting night tonight.

    It's just rude. Unless the subject is pertinent to the betting.
    Until midnight when the polls start to close there is really nothing to discuss beyond more guesstimates we have done already
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.

    Actually, I think that maybe an understatement
    I mean, it's a betting site and it's a huge betting night tonight.

    It's just rude. Unless the subject is pertinent to the betting.
    Its more than just a betting site, its a community. Should we continue the communal conversation we were having on the old thread in the old thread and leave this one abandoned?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    I don't see how the USA could remotely enforce the sort of lock downs China has done to get control. There's probably a lot of folks willing to test their constitutional right to wander around coughing and sneezing.

    Plus - guns.

    Plus - election year.

    "Face masks? We are dressed in our finest and intend to go down as gentlemen!"
    I'm waiting for the first KKK anti-virus hoods to come out.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    You are fighting a losing battle
    No I am not, the facts are clear, coronavirus started in China due to the Chinese government's failure to ban open meat markets and experiments on bats.

    End of conversation
    Its also irrelevant.

    A heart attack may be triggered by a lack of exercise and a bad diet but if the ambulance never turns up after repeated calls and it turns out there are no ambulances available anywhere in the country then something has gone wrong with those responsible for the ambulance service.

    We have done well over 10k tests before the USA even hit 500 tests. While NYC had done zero tests. NYC did its first tests yesterday.

    Do you think NYC has no travel to China? There's no Chinese resident in NYC which has one of the worlds most famous Chinatowns?
    No it is the most relevant thing about the whole affair.

    You can send as many ambulances as possible to help someone who has suffered a heart attack but if they keep not taking exercise and eating poorly eventually they will suffer another heart attack that kills them.

    You can test to try and contain the problem but of more significance would be avoiding the problem again in the first place
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    nichomar said:

    India has only had 6 cases so far despite a similar population to China.

    I read somewhere that India has 25000 people under close watch but I might beverong
    Probably more like 300 from my reading.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868

    Dow down 800 - about 3%

    It’s doing its best to recover towards close, as I suggested it might, but it’s such a weak one that I think holding sell positions overnight is the best play.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    tyson said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    HYUFD said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Not to sound all eadric but I think more Americans may now die from this illness than Chinese before its over.

    Wildly unlikely given how many more Chinese people there are than Americans.

    This will though just become just another flu called 'covid19' and be forgotten. Behind the scenes there will be more targeted stuff, but its the same big picture.
    China is willing to enforce quarantine and is doing containment in a way the US isn't bothering.

    This all happened in China in one province. Its already in 12 states now in America and they've done zero containment.
    Sure, but China will fail in containment if anyone big fails. China has, quite amazingly, perhaps contained this. The rest of the world won't do so though.

    China caused it in the first place, parts of the world like Singapore and South Korea are also containing it better than China
    The origin is certainly China. There, some people did do things that posed a health risk somewhat above the norm. It'd be stupid to blame China in this.
    No, it would be stupid not to blame China in this
    No. It is stupid not to accept Trump is putting his citizens at risk of their lives

    Until about ten days ago Trump was calling the Virus a hoax...then it hit the markets...

    The poor preparation by the US to manage the epidemic may prove to be one of the worst policy decisions in the history of mankind
    Trump doesn't control every level of government in the USA.

    I'd be interested to know what, for example, the Governors of California and Washington have been doing.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    IanB2 said:

    Dow down 800 - about 3%

    It’s doing its best to recover towards close, as I suggested it might, but it’s such a weak one that I think holding sell positions overnight is the best play.
    There could be some movement because of the Democrats primary poling, showing sanders is down, if not out.

    But trying to separate the two is not relay practical at least not for me.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117

    At least half the comments on this thread should have been flagged for going off-topic so soon.

    Actually, I think that maybe an understatement
    I mean, it's a betting site and it's a huge betting night tonight.

    It's just rude. Unless the subject is pertinent to the betting.
    I think the tips on this site so far for US 20 by our usual punters have been a bit shit really....

    I should have posted here an email from my US friend who emailed to say that Bernie's star would initially shine brightly, Biden would comeback on superTuesday but Warren may well end up being a convention pick..this was months ago, and if I had followed his advice could have made a load of money by now....
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    nunu2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ratters said:

    Which candidate is best positioned for a health crisis where the US system fairs far worse than the rest of the developed world?

    I've not yet entered this market, but I'm tempted to start with going long on Sanders for the presidency.

    I asked the other day whether Biden actually has a healthcare plan? No one seems to know.
    Sanders plan would never get through the Senate anyway.

    Restoring Obamacare would be a good start.
    It can pass through reconciliation, which only needs 50 votes in the Senate plus vp. Obamacare always had massive holes in it.
    Isn't there a rule that you can't use reconciliation if you add to the deficit?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,898
    Evening all :)

    To try and being us back on topic, a question - I presume the states voting tonight will award delegates proportionally so it's not a winner takes all for the delegates?

    I could imagine Sanders winning states like Vermont and Maine convincingly and carrying most of the delegates but presumably Texas and California have many more delegates and it may be Biden will do better where he needs to pick up large numbers of delegates so overall he will come back with a strong delegate haul even if Sanders wins more states.

    As for Bloomberg, I suppose he wins Arkansas and picks up delegates elsewhere but he doesn't look like the "stop Sanders" candidate any more.
This discussion has been closed.