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  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Bloomberg needs to walk tomorrow.

    He may have cost Biden his best chance of putting Sanders away tonight by staying in.

    Bloomberg is a really good illustration of what happens when you have unlimited resources but no solid strategy. Can you imagine what Classic Dom could have done with the thick end of a billion dollars in campaign funds?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Andy_JS said:

    This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).

    He looks like a Jeremy Corbyn who can smile and laugh naturally rather than be a McAngryface.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    Joementum
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    CNN amusing themselves by point out how much money Bloomberg has burned through in Virginia alone.

    Blomberg's spending numbers are grist to the mills of all the networks. They are truly stunning. We may be about to find out if Tip O'Neill was right, and money really is the mother's milk of politics.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2020

    Chameleon said:

    nico67 said:

    I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .

    Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .

    I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .

    It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
    It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XdL1nZrIU&t=3s

    Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. I don't cope well with loss, so ;osing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.

    However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,267
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234989168448589825?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234992420720263169?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234988979729993728?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    "RYAN BEST7:29 PM

    We have our first official results of the night, which you can see in our nifty side bar over here 👉. With 2 percent of precincts reporting in Virginia, Biden is overperforming our model’s expectations, Sanders is right about where we expected him, and Warren is slightly below."

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday/
  • Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    nico67 said:

    I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .

    Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .

    I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .

    It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
    It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XdL1nZrIU&t=3s

    Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.

    However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,
    I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Quincel said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Which TV coverage of Super Tuesday is the best to watch?

    I've got CBS and CNN livestreams on Youtube and just switch between them. Neither is great tbh. Fox is usually good, gonna find that now and try it.
    Fox is usually agreed to have the best 'decision desk', but they're all fairly decent.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.

    If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.
  • CNN call American Samoa for Bloomberg, so there's that.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Bloomberg has broken his duck. American Samoa.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    Bloomberg wins American Samoa!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    nico67 said:

    I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .

    Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .

    I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .

    It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
    It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XdL1nZrIU&t=3s

    Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.

    However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,
    I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.
    For those in the "I could only vote for a candidate I would enjoy having a drink with." column, Biden scores high.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    I see the government is set to abolish entrepreneur's relief.

    I think that's an error.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165

    I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.

    If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.

    Didn't they say the same thing about Ronald Reagan? Or maybe that was later in his presidency. I suppose it's okay to be a figurehead if you have a lot of good advisors working in the background.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Bloomberg has broken his duck. American Samoa.

    Wow - that just leaves Democrats Abroad in the overseas department.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.

    If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.

    I think that's right.

    And in normal times, I think Trump would destroy him.

    These are not, however, normal times.
  • Looks like no-one other than Biden/Sanders is getting delegates in VA, Warren and Bloomberg falling way short of 15%
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Andy_JS said:

    I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.

    If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.

    Didn't they say the same thing about Ronald Reagan? Or maybe that was later in his presidency. I suppose it's okay to be a figurehead if you have a lot of good advisors working in the background.
    There used to be a line about staff putting NoDoz in his jelly beans.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    edited March 2020
    MikeL said:

    Bloomberg wins American Samoa!

    I thought Tulsi Gabbard might do well since she's from there.
  • Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.

    If that's true and he's on 23% in an average then I guess he could be below the 15% threshold in multiple districts which would gift Biden 100% of those districts delegates?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Bloomberg has broken his duck. American Samoa.

    For some reason that reminded me of a UK columnist many years ago talking about a politician returning "from his electoral sweep of the Shetlands"
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    Chameleon said:

    nico67 said:

    I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .

    Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .

    I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .

    It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
    It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q8XdL1nZrIU&t=3s

    Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.

    However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,
    I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.
    I agree, on the flipside Abbot from her superb speech in 2008 to current is a demonstration of how sharp decline can be.

    However Biden's speech was much more recent. I have little doubt that Biden would be at least an adequate President.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited March 2020
    Andy_JS said:

    This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).

    Yes, I think Sanders is a much more complicated figure than that, with a longer lineage.

    I think Sanders has his attributes, but his insistence on calling himself himself socialist, when his programme is really FDR democrat, and his personal style is in fact a much older and historically more authentic style of US populism than Trump's, is his achilles' heel.

    Interestingly, many of the much older, original populists in Sanders' style and tradition were overtly Christian - he's a late Jewish entry.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,664
    edited March 2020
    Will anyone get majority of delegates?

    Yes has now gone clear favourite.

    If Bloomberg and Warren hardly get any delegates then almost by default Biden or Sanders must get a majority (unless it's a virtual tie).
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    A 30% lead in Virginia is crushing. That's a very bad night for Sanders.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,890
    350 electorate, 6 delegates, 7 paid Bloomberg staff lol
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    NYT reporter observes:

    Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago
    This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Pulpstar said:
    Yep. Sanders needs to suppress Biden below 15% there.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AL, ME, MA, OK, most of TN now closed. (Some of TN closes at 11pm per judge's ruling today)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Fox calls AL for Biden
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.

    If that's true and he's on 23% in an average then I guess he could be below the 15% threshold in multiple districts which would gift Biden 100% of those districts delegates?
    Virginia has 11 congressional districts, I'd reckon that Sanders will probably make the 15% in almost all of them. (And maybe even all.) His range is likely to be 16-17% up to 31-32%.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    NYT reporter observes:

    Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago
    This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.

    The presidential election may be over before California reports.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921

    NYT reporter observes:

    Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago
    This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.

    Sanders thought he was going to win because the "moderate" lane was crowded and lots of Klobuchar and Buttigieg votes would go to waste.

    Now the moderate lane is no longer as crowded, he's not doing so well.
  • CNN call AL for Biden, unable to call Mass., Oklahoma, Maine.

    Not good for Warren if she can't carry her home state.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Biden clearly outperforming even the optimistic 538 projections.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    edited March 2020
    I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Biden being competitive in MA is a good sign for him as well.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    CNN call AL for Biden, unable to call Mass., Oklahoma, Maine.

    Not good for Warren if she can't carry her home state.

    Fox is saying she is 'competitive' in MA but too close to call yet.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165

    CNN call AL for Biden, unable to call Mass., Oklahoma, Maine.

    Not good for Warren if she can't carry her home state.

    Not good for Sanders if he isn't declared the immediate winner in Maine.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.

    I think they - and his supporters - mistook wins for enthusiasm, when the reality was that he was just benefiting from a split field. Look at NH: he got well under half the support from four years ago.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Unless California goes the other way to polls (ie Biden goes -10 rather than +10 overall) I cannot see Biden not winning the nomination.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT

    Unlikely but amusingly if all Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters followed their candidates example and voted for Biden then he could also win it and either Sanders or Warren could come third.

    Available at 16/1, is that value?

    Looks like Biden is in the running for Massachusetts. I hope someone did get the 16/1 or so that was available if that's the case.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The CNN map guy clearly has coronavirus or a bit of the old marching flu.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,165
    Might the results so far be influencing voters in California?
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Andy_JS said:

    I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.

    Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    Youngest man left in this too. WTF.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555
    Seventy seven years old!

    FFS
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Tim_B said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.

    Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.
    CA early voting is much lower than previous years.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    Trump is the youngest man in the race.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited March 2020
    The Buttigieg and Klobuchar pull-out has clearly booted BIden right back into things.

    There are three or four main things the Democrats should bear in mind, I think - a Coronavirus outbreak could boost both BIden and Sanders, but probably Sanders slightly more ; both Biden's capacity to generate enthusiasm and apparent slowness on the one hand, and Sanders' potential marmite appeal and refusal to ditch a socialist self-identification on the other hand, represent risks for democrats ; and low turnout stemming from the perception of a stitch-up against Sanders might be as much of a risk as Sanders' potential turn off to the South.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,555

    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    Youngest man left in this too. WTF.
    It’s ridiculous.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    Tim_B said:

    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    Trump is the youngest man in the race.
    Politics is a young man's game...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Chameleon said:

    Tim_B said:

    Andy_JS said:

    I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.

    Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.
    CA early voting is much lower than previous years.
    Early may be. I don't have that information. As to mail in we don't know that yet.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    Trump is the youngest man in the race.
    Politics is a young man's game...
    I shall practice kissing babies and lying to their parents immediately! :smiley:
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Is anyone offering odds on both Presidential candidates having to pull out because of illness?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    Chameleon said:

    Is anyone offering odds on both Presidential candidates having to pull out because of illness?

    Will Pence be picked again by Trump? (I have a very small sum on him as Next President...)
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    rcs1000 said:

    Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.

    The elderly are one of the groups at high risk.....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Biden at 24% in VT, while leading by 30% in VA is awful for Sanders. Implies a 5% additional Sanders to Biden swing on top of 538's already generous predictions.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,921
    Biden just one point clear of Bloomberg in Oklahoma...

    (And - coincidentally - one vote ahead of him. It's fair to say that not many votes have been counted.)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited March 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.

    I think it is nailed on unless something massively changes i.e Summer kills this dead, that one of the nominees catches it.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    CBSjust said they have Oklahoma as a toss up between Biden and Bloomberg, but then gave their estimated vote share which had Biden 1st and Bloomberg 4th. Suspect the tossup stat wasn't updated before the presenter got to it on air...
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    But he looks 107.

    Trump has lowered the bar on what people will tolerate in terms of incoherence and having man tits so it's all good homie.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Bloomberg seems to be keeping a decent amount of support.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Chameleon said:

    Bloomberg seems to be keeping a decent amount of support.

    My twitter feed is people arguing that is only in early voting and he's doing much worse in election day votes.
  • Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    Bloomberg seems to be keeping a decent amount of support.

    My twitter feed is people arguing that is only in early voting and he's doing much worse in election day votes.
    The proportions of early voting to day votes could be very important on a day like this.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Tim_B said:

    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    Trump is the youngest man in the race.
    Pete could run again in 2060 and still be younger than Sanders or Biden are today....
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2020
    I'm watching Contagion (2011) right now. It's a more deadly but less spreadable version of our current issue. It includes a delay onset and asymptomatic carriers.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669

    Tim_B said:

    Jonathan said:

    Biden is 77 years old. WTF.

    Trump is the youngest man in the race.
    Pete could run again in 2060 and still be younger than Sanders or Biden are today....
    You're not wrong.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Fox News coverage is full of commercials for No Time to Die. As someone who was 10 when Dr No came out, has all the dvds. and who loves fellow Yorkshireman John Barry scores, I hear those 2 notes and I'm like Pavlov's dogs. I'm there immediately.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    Bloomberg seems to be keeping a decent amount of support.

    My twitter feed is people arguing that is only in early voting and he's doing much worse in election day votes.
    If twitter told me that the sky was blue I'd wait for several peer reviewed studies to say otherwise.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Sander's 35-40% strategy would work well in the UK. But in the US Dems need 52%+.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Chameleon said:

    Quincel said:

    Chameleon said:

    Bloomberg seems to be keeping a decent amount of support.

    My twitter feed is people arguing that is only in early voting and he's doing much worse in election day votes.
    If twitter told me that the sky was blue I'd wait for several peer reviewed studies to say otherwise.
    I too have always felt that the Lords were the fount of all knowledge :smiley:
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Early days, but the New York Times needle has moved to favour Biden to win Texas.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Fox calls Oklahoma for Biden whole others wait. Colorado called for Sanders right away. Given Colorado is mostly early voting it makes sense Sanders big leads there weren't blunted by Biden's surge.
This discussion has been closed.