He may have cost Biden his best chance of putting Sanders away tonight by staying in.
Bloomberg is a really good illustration of what happens when you have unlimited resources but no solid strategy. Can you imagine what Classic Dom could have done with the thick end of a billion dollars in campaign funds?
This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).
He looks like a Jeremy Corbyn who can smile and laugh naturally rather than be a McAngryface.
CNN amusing themselves by point out how much money Bloomberg has burned through in Virginia alone.
Blomberg's spending numbers are grist to the mills of all the networks. They are truly stunning. We may be about to find out if Tip O'Neill was right, and money really is the mother's milk of politics.
I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .
Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .
I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .
It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.
Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. I don't cope well with loss, so ;osing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.
However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight.
This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).
We have our first official results of the night, which you can see in our nifty side bar over here 👉. With 2 percent of precincts reporting in Virginia, Biden is overperforming our model’s expectations, Sanders is right about where we expected him, and Warren is slightly below."
I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .
Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .
I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .
It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.
Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.
However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,
I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.
I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.
If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.
I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .
Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .
I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .
It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.
Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.
However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,
I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.
For those in the "I could only vote for a candidate I would enjoy having a drink with." column, Biden scores high.
I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.
If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.
Didn't they say the same thing about Ronald Reagan? Or maybe that was later in his presidency. I suppose it's okay to be a figurehead if you have a lot of good advisors working in the background.
I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.
If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.
I think that's right.
And in normal times, I think Trump would destroy him.
I genuinely think that Biden is undergoing the early stages of dementia, a very concerning prospect for a President.
If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.
Didn't they say the same thing about Ronald Reagan? Or maybe that was later in his presidency. I suppose it's okay to be a figurehead if you have a lot of good advisors working in the background.
There used to be a line about staff putting NoDoz in his jelly beans.
Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.
Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.
If that's true and he's on 23% in an average then I guess he could be below the 15% threshold in multiple districts which would gift Biden 100% of those districts delegates?
I really like Bernie Sanders but elections in the USA aren’t won on running up huge scores in states that are slam dunks for either the Dems or GOP .
Biden maybe gaffe prone and not as punchy as he used to be but I think he’ll have a better chance of winning in swing states .
I think that Virginia result is huge for Biden . Sanders will romp home in California . Texas is now the real interest .
It's definitely part of my bias, but Biden reminds me of my recently deceased grandfather. He's a good bloke and won't do anything outrageous, and he'd be a good chat with in the pub. Sanders would be an absolute bore. I'll never back someone that I wouldn't be able to have a drink with.
It's partly because Sanders has relaxed his style in this respect, particularly with key voting groups like African-Americans, that he's doing better. However, as mentioned somewhere below, Biden has a hint of "Southern" interpersonal appeal.
Yeah, Sanders has relaxed his style a bit, which is why he's still going, but Biden's speeches connect with me on a personal level, he's been through an awful lot and is still going, I respect that resilience. Losing two kids so early at separate times must be awful.
However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight,
I've always had a huge amount of time for Biden. His speech at the DNC in 2016 was superb.
I agree, on the flipside Abbot from her superb speech in 2008 to current is a demonstration of how sharp decline can be.
However Biden's speech was much more recent. I have little doubt that Biden would be at least an adequate President.
This looks like another defeat for the Woke crowd who were fully behind Bernie Sanders (although I don't think Bernie is particularly Woke himself, more of an old-fashioned socialist).
Yes, I think Sanders is a much more complicated figure than that, with a longer lineage.
I think Sanders has his attributes, but his insistence on calling himself himself socialist, when his programme is really FDR democrat, and his personal style is in fact a much older and historically more authentic style of US populism than Trump's, is his achilles' heel.
Interestingly, many of the much older, original populists in Sanders' style and tradition were overtly Christian - he's a late Jewish entry.
Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.
Only place Sanders seems to be doing well in VA is in the University districts. Crucially, not in the northern VA districts, with a sizeable Latino population.
If that's true and he's on 23% in an average then I guess he could be below the 15% threshold in multiple districts which would gift Biden 100% of those districts delegates?
Virginia has 11 congressional districts, I'd reckon that Sanders will probably make the 15% in almost all of them. (And maybe even all.) His range is likely to be 16-17% up to 31-32%.
Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.
The presidential election may be over before California reports.
Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.
Sanders thought he was going to win because the "moderate" lane was crowded and lots of Klobuchar and Buttigieg votes would go to waste.
Now the moderate lane is no longer as crowded, he's not doing so well.
I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.
I think they - and his supporters - mistook wins for enthusiasm, when the reality was that he was just benefiting from a split field. Look at NH: he got well under half the support from four years ago.
Unlikely but amusingly if all Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters followed their candidates example and voted for Biden then he could also win it and either Sanders or Warren could come third.
Available at 16/1, is that value?
Looks like Biden is in the running for Massachusetts. I hope someone did get the 16/1 or so that was available if that's the case.
I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.
Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.
I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.
Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.
CA early voting is much lower than previous years.
The Buttigieg and Klobuchar pull-out has clearly booted BIden right back into things.
There are three or four main things the Democrats should bear in mind, I think - a Coronavirus outbreak could boost both BIden and Sanders, but probably Sanders slightly more ; both Biden's capacity to generate enthusiasm and apparent slowness on the one hand, and Sanders' potential marmite appeal and refusal to ditch a socialist self-identification on the other hand, represent risks for democrats ; and low turnout stemming from the perception of a stitch-up against Sanders might be as much of a risk as Sanders' potential turn off to the South.
I don't think the Sanders' campaign made any mistakes as such. Voters just decided that Biden is more likely to beat Trump in November.
Looks like the late Biden surge is real. The narrative so far is the Biden surge, and the problem for Sanders is he'll do well in late reporting states. CA has apparently massive mail-in votes. Votes have to post marked today and will be counted in 3 days. This may dilute his bounce.
CA early voting is much lower than previous years.
Early may be. I don't have that information. As to mail in we don't know that yet.
Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.
Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.
The elderly are one of the groups at high risk.....
Biden at 24% in VT, while leading by 30% in VA is awful for Sanders. Implies a 5% additional Sanders to Biden swing on top of 538's already generous predictions.
Watching TV, Sanders and Biden are doing a lot of shaking hands at campaign events. There has to be a non-trivial risk that one of them catches somethng.
I think it is nailed on unless something massively changes i.e Summer kills this dead, that one of the nominees catches it.
CBSjust said they have Oklahoma as a toss up between Biden and Bloomberg, but then gave their estimated vote share which had Biden 1st and Bloomberg 4th. Suspect the tossup stat wasn't updated before the presenter got to it on air...
I'm watching Contagion (2011) right now. It's a more deadly but less spreadable version of our current issue. It includes a delay onset and asymptomatic carriers.
Fox News coverage is full of commercials for No Time to Die. As someone who was 10 when Dr No came out, has all the dvds. and who loves fellow Yorkshireman John Barry scores, I hear those 2 notes and I'm like Pavlov's dogs. I'm there immediately.
Fox calls Oklahoma for Biden whole others wait. Colorado called for Sanders right away. Given Colorado is mostly early voting it makes sense Sanders big leads there weren't blunted by Biden's surge.
Comments
Bloomberg is a really good illustration of what happens when you have unlimited resources but no solid strategy. Can you imagine what Classic Dom could have done with the thick end of a billion dollars in campaign funds?
However I do my best to correct my bias, which I why I bet on a Biden-Bernie race and won't bet on it beyond tonight.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234992420720263169?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234988979729993728?s=20
We have our first official results of the night, which you can see in our nifty side bar over here 👉. With 2 percent of precincts reporting in Virginia, Biden is overperforming our model’s expectations, Sanders is right about where we expected him, and Warren is slightly below."
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/super-tuesday/
Sanders 57%
Biden 19%
Warren 9%
Bloomberg 9%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-vermont-president-democrat-primary-election.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage
If Biden does get elected then I wonder if we'll see the 25th Amendment exercised in his term. It would not surprise me if he doesn't last 4 years without resigning/being ousted/actuarial concerns.
I think that's an error.
And in normal times, I think Trump would destroy him.
These are not, however, normal times.
However Biden's speech was much more recent. I have little doubt that Biden would be at least an adequate President.
I think Sanders has his attributes, but his insistence on calling himself himself socialist, when his programme is really FDR democrat, and his personal style is in fact a much older and historically more authentic style of US populism than Trump's, is his achilles' heel.
Interestingly, many of the much older, original populists in Sanders' style and tradition were overtly Christian - he's a late Jewish entry.
Yes has now gone clear favourite.
If Bloomberg and Warren hardly get any delegates then almost by default Biden or Sanders must get a majority (unless it's a virtual tie).
Jennifer Medina, in Los Angeles 12m ago
This is a scenario Sanders supporters worried about: lots of attention on early wins for Biden. More favorable states for Sanders won’t report until much later.
Now the moderate lane is no longer as crowded, he's not doing so well.
Not good for Warren if she can't carry her home state.
FFS
There are three or four main things the Democrats should bear in mind, I think - a Coronavirus outbreak could boost both BIden and Sanders, but probably Sanders slightly more ; both Biden's capacity to generate enthusiasm and apparent slowness on the one hand, and Sanders' potential marmite appeal and refusal to ditch a socialist self-identification on the other hand, represent risks for democrats ; and low turnout stemming from the perception of a stitch-up against Sanders might be as much of a risk as Sanders' potential turn off to the South.
Biden 29%
Sanders 24%
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/03/us/elections/results-north-carolina-president-democrat-primary-election.html
(And - coincidentally - one vote ahead of him. It's fair to say that not many votes have been counted.)
Trump has lowered the bar on what people will tolerate in terms of incoherence and having man tits so it's all good homie.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/singaporean-student-in-london-seeks-eyewitnesses-after-coronavirus-related-taunt-and?cx_testId=20&cx_testVariant=cx_1&cx_artPos=2#cxrecs_s
Mind you, Oxford street isn't exactly short of CCTV.....