One of the few upsides to this ghastly virus is the way it puts everything else in perspective. That article might have "worked" a few weeks ago, now, as we confront a real emergency, which - at its worst - might just break aspects of Britain, it looks like a wankfest of lefty hysteria. Which it is.
Actually the quite amazing thing is that so much money could be saved in the non-NHS parts of public expenditure (a stunning 25%) with little impact overall, at least until very recently where I accept things have got difficult. Of course you can find shortcomings and hardships, but that is always true - it was true in the 'spend spend spend' years of Blair and Brown. It's completely clear from the relative lack of impact that there must have been humongous waste under the last Labour government.
No I have a second tumor on the liver and it will be chemo and radio treatment. The private hospital has recommended I now move on to the state system because our local hospital is a world leader in cancer treatment. The insurance company are pulling strings to accelerate me through the system. They tell me if you have to get cancer they are some of the most curable. Staying calm and looking for alternatives to keep my mind moving.
Sounds like you have a good plan there - wishing you a super speedy recovery.
By the way, have no idea if you are interested in alternative therapies, but my friend who has leukemia basically lives due to cannabis oil. She also supplies it - recently started supplying an 80 year old woman with lung cancer who doctors had no hope for - they are now astonished that her tumours are shrinking. She refuses to tell them. Or stop smoking.
Fags went 18:months ago ironically just gave up with no problems. The booze will be more difficult.
They have at the very least 5 community transmission areas (Seattle, NY/Florida, Oregon, CA*2). Given how extremely hard it is to get a test over there it's extremely likely that there will be many more clusters going from 5 to 10 to 20 etc. Given how intraconnected the US is the longer they leave it the more clusters there will be.
A case missed in mid January in Seattle is estimated to be about 750-1000 cases now, multiply that by 10-25 for 10-25 other missed cases (extremely generous estimate for the US), and add in a doubling rate of 5ish days. You can do the maths on that.
Super Tuesday looks to be an amazing transmission vector. By the time they realise what they're dealing with they'll be past the point of controlling it.
Which, in turn, endangers the rest of us. America is an idiot
Americans seem to believe that paying no taxes and having a gun are sufficient to guarantee a good life.
It takes an incident like this to demonstrate the value of collective action. Yet there is no collective action in America. [SNIP]
There used to be though... just think of the response to two world wars, also the space race.
Indeed. America has been changing fast during our lifetimes. There was a time when a Americans had the shortest working hours of any western economy. Nixon came close to introducing a universal basic income during his first term. And it wasn’t until Clinton that the welfare safety net beneath the poorest was finally dismantled.
Its worth noting that in Nixon's era a universal basic income was a rightwing idea not a leftwing one. I firmly believe we should implement it, the right way.
It's like catching a serial killer, seeing his modus operandi, and then realising he's been murdering for a long time.
THIS is an interesting piece. Says there are two basic views of coronavirus, "growthers" and "base raters".
The growthers, the writer says, tend to be people working in tech, silicon valley, and the like, who are used to exponential growth and understand the concept. They are the more pessimistic about C-virus
The base raters are the Don't Panickers, who have normalcy bias/sensible skepticism (you choose) and presume it won't be that bad.
At the moment the growthers are right, and we have exponential growth. For now.
I completely disagree with the concensus over Trump here. What he can actually *do* as President is imo limited. All he can really do is maintain a positive optimistic face, and he seems to be doing that.
By contrast, look at Tony Blair, the twat, donning full protective gear and emoting on the scene of Foot and Mouth disease. Those images went around the world and did untold and unnecessary damage to the tourism industry.
Just like your beloved Trumpton, you can’t spell consensus.
The way he is handling covid 19 he should be thrown out of office now
He is a real and ever present danger to his people and the Rest of the World
I don't think he is handling it that badly and let us not forget it was the Chinese government's failure to ban live meat markets and experiments on bats that launched coronavirus on the world, not Trump
Don't be absurd.
America hasn't even tested 500 people since this began while we've tested nearly 20,000 and are testing hundreds or thousands per day.
Rest of the world's response to this virus is thinking how to contain it. Trump's response is how to look after the stock exchange.
Viruses can evolve, it happens, but how we react to it is how we should be measured and Trump has failed awfully.
The main blame for this virus lies with China and the Chinese government for allowing unsafe meat markets and animal experiments which allowed the virus to fester and emerge.
Yes, the US could try and increase its testing rate to ours but that is a matter for them, however the risk we face originated from China and that is where the blame lies and the most lessons need to be learnt
Does it matter where the blame lies? It doesn’t help anybody we can worry about that when it’s over
Yes it does, when people are killed law enforcement look for the murderer or who is responsible for their manslaughter not which ambulance service provided the weakest response to them
Well it’s a view! The virus won’t kill me but the impact that it has could do. At the moment I don’t give a shit who caused it but I do give a shit how governments react to it. The UK is doing well at the moment but personally I would can all sport involving large gatherings as should spain. It’s a bit like blame Eve for original sin
How you doing? In hospital?
No I have a second tumor on the liver and it will be chemo and radio treatment. The private hospital has recommended I now move on to the state system because our local hospital is a world leader in cancer treatment. The insurance company are pulling strings to accelerate me through the system. They tell me if you have to get cancer they are some of the most curable. Staying calm and looking for alternatives to keep my mind moving.
I completely disagree with the concensus over Trump here. What he can actually *do* as President is imo limited. All he can really do is maintain a positive optimistic face, and he seems to be doing that.
By contrast, look at Tony Blair, the twat, donning full protective gear and emoting on the scene of Foot and Mouth disease. Those images went around the world and did untold and unnecessary damage to the tourism industry.
I haven't seen any photo's of Giseppe Conte donning full protective gear but Italy's tourism industry has still nose dived.
The US federal government has enormous resources and capabilities. Actually getting setup to test at zillions per day would be perfectly possible - for an administration that was competently run. It would require time - but there was plenty of notice.
I completely disagree with the concensus over Trump here. What he can actually *do* as President is imo limited. All he can really do is maintain a positive optimistic face, and he seems to be doing that.
By contrast, look at Tony Blair, the twat, donning full protective gear and emoting on the scene of Foot and Mouth disease. Those images went around the world and did untold and unnecessary damage to the tourism industry.
Just like your beloved Trumpton, you can’t spell consensus.
Its not a word they worry about too much in Moscow.
The way he is handling covid 19 he should be thrown out of office now
He is a real and ever present danger to his people and the Rest of the World
I don't think he is handling it that badly and let us not forget it was the Chinese government's failure to ban live meat markets and experiments on bats that launched coronavirus on the world, not Trump
Don't be absurd.
America hasn't even tested 500 people since this began while we've tested nearly 20,000 and are testing hundreds or thousands per day.
Rest of the world's response to this virus is thinking how to contain it. Trump's response is how to look after the stock exchange.
Viruses can evolve, it happens, but how we react to it is how we should be measured and Trump has failed awfully.
The main blame for this virus lies with China and the Chinese government for allowing unsafe meat markets and animal experiments which allowed the virus to fester and emerge.
Yes, the US could try and increase its testing rate to ours but that is a matter for them, however the risk we face originated from China and that is where the blame lies and the most lessons need to be learnt
Does it matter where the blame lies? It doesn’t help anybody we can worry about that when it’s over
Yes it does, when people are killed law enforcement look for the murderer or who is responsible for their manslaughter not which ambulance service provided the weakest response to them
Well it’s a view! The virus won’t kill me but the impact that it has could do. At the moment I don’t give a shit who caused it but I do give a shit how governments react to it. The UK is doing well at the moment but personally I would can all sport involving large gatherings as should spain. It’s a bit like blame Eve for original sin
How you doing? In hospital?
No I have a second tumor on the liver and it will be chemo and radio treatment. The private hospital has recommended I now move on to the state system because our local hospital is a world leader in cancer treatment. The insurance company are pulling strings to accelerate me through the system. They tell me if you have to get cancer they are some of the most curable. Staying calm and looking for alternatives to keep my mind moving.
Excellent about the "world leader" bit, that makes a hell of a difference. Best of luck.
They have at the very least 5 community transmission areas (Seattle, NY/Florida, Oregon, CA*2). Given how extremely hard it is to get a test over there it's extremely likely that there will be many more clusters going from 5 to 10 to 20 etc. Given how intraconnected the US is the longer they leave it the more clusters there will be.
A case missed in mid January in Seattle is estimated to be about 750-1000 cases now, multiply that by 10-25 for 10-25 other missed cases (extremely generous estimate for the US), and add in a doubling rate of 5ish days. You can do the maths on that.
Super Tuesday looks to be an amazing transmission vector. By the time they realise what they're dealing with they'll be past the point of controlling it.
Which, in turn, endangers the rest of us. America is an idiot
Americans seem to believe that paying no taxes and having a gun are sufficient to guarantee a good life.
It takes an incident like this to demonstrate the value of collective action. Yet there is no collective action in America. [SNIP]
There used to be though... just think of the response to two world wars, also the space race.
Indeed. America has been changing fast during our lifetimes. There was a time when a Americans had the shortest working hours of any western economy. Nixon came close to introducing a universal basic income during his first term. And it wasn’t until Clinton that the welfare safety net beneath the poorest was finally dismantled.
One of the lessons from history that people often miss IMHO is that nations change; there is no underlying persistent 'quality' or trait that defines a nation indefinitely.
Today's America is not the America of the 40s, 50s and 60s, any more than Britain is any longer the nation of the exploring empire builders or industrial innovators. Today's Britain would not exhibit the Blitz spirit, it would due for peace.
We should not be surprised: modern Italy and Greece could not emulate their classical forebears. The inherent character of nations changes over time.
One of the few upsides to this ghastly virus is the way it puts everything else in perspective. That article might have "worked" a few weeks ago, now, as we confront a real emergency, which - at its worst - might just break aspects of Britain, it looks like a wankfest of lefty hysteria. Which it is.
Oh no it isn't. Indeed I was contemplating writing a header on the Marmot report 2020. It is really quite important for both explaining Brexit and assessing whether Brexit has delivered in 10 years time.
Obviously not the health story of the moment though!
I went with "Fuuuuuuuuucking hell" but I see we are broadly aligned.
At Farage, the Fed or both?
I’m on both.
Reaction from my sales guys to the cut was “what do they know that we don’t”?
No one can explain to me how an interest cut is helpful at this juncture. I am of course not a financier.
It was simply an attempt to boost markets by holding out the prospect of more easy money. It’s hard to believe that US politics didn’t play directly into this.
No I have a second tumor on the liver and it will be chemo and radio treatment. The private hospital has recommended I now move on to the state system because our local hospital is a world leader in cancer treatment. The insurance company are pulling strings to accelerate me through the system. They tell me if you have to get cancer they are some of the most curable. Staying calm and looking for alternatives to keep my mind moving.
My brother-in-law is in exactly the same position as you with tumours in the liver, so I have some idea of what you are facing. His doctors have been containing the tumours for about 5 years now, so it does seem to be one of the less aggressive ones.
All I can do is wish you the very best of luck and I hope that your treatment goes as well as my brother-in-law's
And so markets are falling like stones once again.
It was inevitable. Yesterday was the biggest dead cat bounce ever.
This bear market will run for months, maybe years
I'm afraid I think you're right. I warned my friend who previously ignored me two months ago to seize the moment. I think he's ignored me again and is now regretting it. A long slow slide is coming, I fear.
The way he is handling covid 19 he should be thrown out of office now
He is a real and ever present danger to his people and the Rest of the World
I don't think he is handling
Don't be absurd.
The main blame for this virus lies with China
Does it matter where the blame lies? It doesn’t help anybody we can worry about that when it’s over
Yes it does, when people are killed law enforcement look for the murderer or who is responsible for their manslaughter not which ambulance service provided the weakest response to them
Well it’s a view! The virus won’t kill me but the impact that it has could do. At the moment I don’t give a shit who caused it but I do give a shit how governments react to it. The UK is doing well at the moment but personally I would can all sport involving large gatherings as should spain. It’s a bit like blame Eve for original sin
How you doing? In hospital?
No I have a second tumor on the liver and it will be chemo and radio treatment. The private hospital has recommended I now move on to the state system because our local hospital is a world leader in cancer treatment. The insurance company are pulling strings to accelerate me through the system. They tell me if you have to get cancer they are some of the most curable. Staying calm and looking for alternatives to keep my mind moving.
Best of luck, soft tissue secondaries are bad news, but can be contained with modern chemo in an increasing number of cases. I have a cousin with liver mets from Breast Ca for 2 years now, looks in the pink to a casual glance.
I hope that you stay well enough to continue looking after Mrs Nicomar for a long time.
The most bizarre thing about this crisis is how mortal enemies Iran and the USA have both been pushed back to calling upon religion for salvation.
Add in the home of the Catholic church and the South Korean sect and its almost as if prayer isnt as good at dealing with illnesses as science. Who would have thought it?
They did a clinical trial in cardiac patients a few years back
From memory prayer has a mildly positive effect (better than placebo but only clinically relevant rather than statistically significant). It achieved significant in secondary effects.
They postulated it was down to a psychosomatic effect on healing
Markets are moving so fast, I am up £1,500 in the last hour. I wonder whether this is going to be one of those days when the Dow rallies before close? It’s a common pattern. Maybe take half the profit, and wait til morning.
It's like catching a serial killer, seeing his modus operandi, and then realising he's been murdering for a long time.
THIS is an interesting piece. Says there are two basic views of coronavirus, "growthers" and "base raters".
The growthers, the writer says, tend to be people working in tech, silicon valley, and the like, who are used to exponential growth and understand the concept. They are the more pessimistic about C-virus
The base raters are the Don't Panickers, who have normalcy bias/sensible skepticism (you choose) and presume it won't be that bad.
At the moment the growthers are right, and we have exponential growth. For now.
It's like catching a serial killer, seeing his modus operandi, and then realising he's been murdering for a long time.
THIS is an interesting piece. Says there are two basic views of coronavirus, "growthers" and "base raters".
The growthers, the writer says, tend to be people working in tech, silicon valley, and the like, who are used to exponential growth and understand the concept. They are the more pessimistic about C-virus
The base raters are the Don't Panickers, who have normalcy bias/sensible skepticism (you choose) and presume it won't be that bad.
At the moment the growthers are right, and we have exponential growth. For now.
The way he is handling covid 19 he should be thrown out of office now
He is a real and ever present danger to his people and the Rest of the World
I don't think he is handling it that badly and let us not forget it was the Chinese government's failure to ban live meat markets and experiments on bats that launched coronavirus on the world, not Trump
Don't be absurd.
America hasn't even tested 500 people since this began while we've tested nearly 20,000 and are testing hundreds or thousands per day.
Rest of the world's response to this virus is thinking how to contain it. Trump's response is how to look after the stock exchange.
Viruses can evolve, it happens, but how we react to it is how we should be measured and Trump has failed awfully.
The main blame for this virus lies with China and the Chinese government for allowing unsafe meat markets and animal experiments which allowed the virus to fester and emerge.
Yes, the US could try and increase its testing rate to ours but that is a matter for them, however the risk we face originated from China and that is where the blame lies and the most lessons need to be learnt
Does it matter where the blame lies? It doesn’t help anybody we can worry about that when it’s over
Yes it does, when people are killed law enforcement look for the murderer or who is responsible for their manslaughter not which ambulance service provided the weakest response to them
I went with "Fuuuuuuuuucking hell" but I see we are broadly aligned.
At Farage, the Fed or both?
I’m on both.
Reaction from my sales guys to the cut was “what do they know that we don’t”?
No one can explain to me how an interest cut is helpful at this juncture. I am of course not a financier.
It was simply an attempt to boost markets by holding out the prospect of more easy money. It’s hard to believe that US politics didn’t play directly into this.
Theoretically it was an attempt to increase bank loans as well as shore up valuations of companies whose growth rate might suffer via a decrease in the discount rate for future (subdued) earnings and cashflows.
At these levels however the effect on both loans and NPVs will be modest to say the least.
The most bizarre thing about this crisis is how mortal enemies Iran and the USA have both been pushed back to calling upon religion for salvation.
Add in the home of the Catholic church and the South Korean sect and its almost as if prayer isnt as good at dealing with illnesses as science. Who would have thought it?
They did a clinical trial in cardiac patients a few years back
From memory prayer has a mildly positive effect (better than placebo but only clinically relevant rather than statistically significant). It achieved significant in secondary effects.
They postulated it was down to a psychosomatic effect on healing
Au contraire Blackadder....
"patients who knew they were being prayed for had a higher rate of post-operative complications like abnormal heart rhythms, perhaps because of the expectations the prayers created, the researchers suggested. ... being aware of the strangers' prayers also may have caused some of the patients a kind of performance anxiety."
It's like catching a serial killer, seeing his modus operandi, and then realising he's been murdering for a long time.
THIS is an interesting piece. Says there are two basic views of coronavirus, "growthers" and "base raters".
The growthers, the writer says, tend to be people working in tech, silicon valley, and the like, who are used to exponential growth and understand the concept. They are the more pessimistic about C-virus
The base raters are the Don't Panickers, who have normalcy bias/sensible skepticism (you choose) and presume it won't be that bad.
At the moment the growthers are right, and we have exponential growth. For now.
The most bizarre thing about this crisis is how mortal enemies Iran and the USA have both been pushed back to calling upon religion for salvation.
Add in the home of the Catholic church and the South Korean sect and its almost as if prayer isnt as good at dealing with illnesses as science. Who would have thought it?
They did a clinical trial in cardiac patients a few years back
From memory prayer has a mildly positive effect (better than placebo but only clinically relevant rather than statistically significant). It achieved significant in secondary effects.
They postulated it was down to a psychosomatic effect on healing
Au contraire Blackadder....
"patients who knew they were being prayed for had a higher rate of post-operative complications like abnormal heart rhythms, perhaps because of the expectations the prayers created, the researchers suggested. ... being aware of the strangers' prayers also may have caused some of the patients a kind of performance anxiety."
One of the largest clusters in Spain is an evangelical community. They are rapidly rewriting the laws around catholic ritual as well. No more ring kissing!
Spanish death in Valencia on Feb 13th, before Spain had a single confirmed case. So it's likely been spreading in Spain since late Jan, and Valencia is in the middle of a massive festival. This is bad news.
And so markets are falling like stones once again.
It was inevitable. Yesterday was the biggest dead cat bounce ever.
This bear market will run for months, maybe years
I'm afraid I think you're right. I warned my friend who previously ignored me two months ago to seize the moment. I think he's ignored me again and is now regretting it. A long slow slide is coming, I fear.
It's not even slightly clear this is the case.
If central banks are paying zero interest then that sets the level field. Currently nobody trusts the central banks to not do daft things. However a central bank paying 0.25% on deposits is in some ways a dream Economic scenario.
If though ~0% interest rates on deposits becomes the norm then there are fantastic opportunities in equity markets. The only thing holding them back is, paradoxically, the wildly unclear central-bank thinking.
One of the few upsides to this ghastly virus is the way it puts everything else in perspective. That article might have "worked" a few weeks ago, now, as we confront a real emergency, which - at its worst - might just break aspects of Britain, it looks like a wankfest of lefty hysteria. Which it is.
If this is an epochal event people may see the world very differently on the other side. The state, how it is funded, for what purposes and who by, for example. Johnson as Churchill, Starmer as Attlee. Hmmmm.
And so markets are falling like stones once again.
It was inevitable. Yesterday was the biggest dead cat bounce ever.
This bear market will run for months, maybe years
I'm afraid I think you're right. I warned my friend who previously ignored me two months ago to seize the moment. I think he's ignored me again and is now regretting it. A long slow slide is coming, I fear.
I don't see how it can do otherwise. Even if this thing went away a week Friday, the economic impact would likely be enough for a major recession. And, sadly, it's not going away Friday week.
Whenever you have a financial position, it is always worth thinking out the logic for the opposing one.
In this case it would be, US tests reveal their problem is very geographically limited and they act to contain it, the Italian situation improves due to their drastic containment. Spread of the virus abates because it turns out to be superspreader-centric, with most carriers not being highly infectious, and it turns out not to like warmer weather after all. And central banks’ promise of easy money keeps markets afloat despite the real economy slowly sinking.
Not sure it’s hugely convincing (although I do think people won’t be so worried once they see deaths are uncommon and mostly of the elderly and ill), but there we are.
The way he is handling covid 19 he should be thrown out of office now
He is a real and ever present danger to his people and the Rest of the World
I don't think he is handling it that badly and let us not forget it was the Chinese government's failure to ban live meat markets and experiments on bats that launched coronavirus on the world, not Trump
Don't be absurd.
America hasn't even tested 500 people since this began while we've tested nearly 20,000 and are testing hundreds or thousands per day.
Rest of the world's response to this virus is thinking how to contain it. Trump's response is how to look after the stock exchange.
Viruses can evolve, it happens, but how we react to it is how we should be measured and Trump has failed awfully.
The main blame for this virus lies with China and the Chinese government for allowing unsafe meat markets and animal experiments which allowed the virus to fester and emerge.
Yes, the US could try and increase its testing rate to ours but that is a matter for them, however the risk we face originated from China and that is where the blame lies and the most lessons need to be learnt
Does it matter where the blame lies? It doesn’t help anybody we can worry about that when it’s over
Yes it does, when people are killed law enforcement look for the murderer or who is responsible for their manslaughter not which ambulance service provided the weakest response to them
I most certainly am real, the blame for this outbreak lies solely and squarely with the Communist government of China not with Trump and it is they who are to blame and they who must change their behaviour.
How the USA responds to it is up to the USA and who the US elects to be their president is up to the US people
You are suffering from "Sole Actor Syndrome", a desire to find a single person (or actor) responsible for everything.
As anybody here who's worked in complex systems knows, blame should usually be attributed to many people in varying degrees. Most serious problems happen because there have been lots of lapses, not because one person did something.
China's government was late to recognise the issue, and late to impose measures. But impose measures it has.
The US's response to this natural disaster was first to bury its head in the sand. If it had done differently, then it is likely that more would have been done to stem the flow of the disease. The US may not have been responsible for infected people reaching the country. But it is responsible for taking actions once its happened to safeguard its people.
Saying "it's all someone else's fault" is an abrogation of responsibility on an epic scale.
One of the few upsides to this ghastly virus is the way it puts everything else in perspective. That article might have "worked" a few weeks ago, now, as we confront a real emergency, which - at its worst - might just break aspects of Britain, it looks like a wankfest of lefty hysteria. Which it is.
If this is an epochal event people may see the world very differently on the other side. The state, how it is funded, for what purposes and who by, for example. Johnson as Churchill, Starmer as Attlee. Hmmmm.
The way he is handling covid 19 he should be thrown out of office now
He is a real and ever present danger to his people and the Rest of the World
I don't think he is handling it that badly and let us not forget it was the Chinese government's failure to ban live meat markets and experiments on bats that launched coronavirus on the world, not Trump
Don't be absurd.
America hasn't even tested 500 people since this began while we've tested nearly 20,000 and are testing hundreds or thousands per day.
Rest of the world's response to this virus is thinking how to contain it. Trump's response is how to look after the stock exchange.
Viruses can evolve, it happens, but how we react to it is how we should be measured and Trump has failed awfully.
The main blame for this virus lies with China and the Chinese government for allowing unsafe meat markets and animal experiments which allowed the virus to fester and emerge.
Yes, the US could try and increase its testing rate to ours but that is a matter for them, however the risk we face originated from China and that is where the blame lies and the most lessons need to be learnt
Does it matter where the blame lies? It doesn’t help anybody we can worry about that when it’s over
Yes it does, when people are killed law enforcement look for the murderer or who is responsible for their manslaughter not which ambulance service provided the weakest response to them
Have you heard of the concept of “duty of care”?
Has to be proved there was both such a duty and that it caused the death of the victim and also that it was so gross as to justify a criminal conviction.
I would have thought if anyone has breached their duty of care to their population and the wider global population it is the Chinese government in allowing open meat markets and experiments on bats which led to the coronavirus outbreak in the first place
It's like catching a serial killer, seeing his modus operandi, and then realising he's been murdering for a long time.
THIS is an interesting piece. Says there are two basic views of coronavirus, "growthers" and "base raters".
The growthers, the writer says, tend to be people working in tech, silicon valley, and the like, who are used to exponential growth and understand the concept. They are the more pessimistic about C-virus
The base raters are the Don't Panickers, who have normalcy bias/sensible skepticism (you choose) and presume it won't be that bad.
At the moment the growthers are right, and we have exponential growth. For now.
Spanish death in Valencia on Feb 13th, before Spain had a single confirmed case. So it's likely been spreading in Spain since late Jan, and Valencia is in the middle of a massive festival. This is bad news.
Most of the known cases In Valencia are a result of going to Milan for a football match. The problems in Madrid are serious though 50+. I would look now to Liverpool who were in Madrid recently and Barcelona after el Classico this weekend.cancel the sport it’s bloody stupid to keep going.
I most certainly am real, the blame for this outbreak lies solely and squarely with the Communist government of China not with Trump and it is they who are to blame and they who must change their behaviour.
How the USA responds to it is up to the USA and who the US elects to be their president is up to the US people
You are suffering from "Sole Actor Syndrome", a desire to find a single person (or actor) responsible for everything.
As anybody here who's worked in complex systems knows, blame should usually be attributed to many people in varying degrees. Most serious problems happen because there have been lots of lapses, not because one person did something.
China's government was late to recognise the issue, and late to impose measures. But impose measures it has.
The US's response to this natural disaster was first to bury its head in the sand. If it had done differently, then it is likely that more would have been done to stem the flow of the disease. The US may not have been responsible for infected people reaching the country. But it is responsible for taking actions once its happened to safeguard its people.
Saying "it's all someone else's fault" is an abrogation of responsibility on an epic scale.
Even if we contain coronavirus this time, unless the Chinese government bans open meat markets and restricts experiments on animals like bats there is a risk it will happen again, it absolutely is their responsibility for causing this outbreak and I refuse to apologise for saying so
OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)
China: 3.67%
Korea: 0.66%
Italy: 3.16%
Iran: 3.3%
Diamond Princess: 0.85%
Japan: 2.05%
France: 1.96%
USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)
Hong Kong: 1.98%
Thailand: 2.08%
Taiwan: 2.44%
Australia:2.56%
San Marino: 10%
The Philippines: 33%
What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.
One of the few upsides to this ghastly virus is the way it puts everything else in perspective. That article might have "worked" a few weeks ago, now, as we confront a real emergency, which - at its worst - might just break aspects of Britain, it looks like a wankfest of lefty hysteria. Which it is.
If this is an epochal event people may see the world very differently on the other side. The state, how it is funded, for what purposes and who by, for example. Johnson as Churchill, Starmer as Attlee. Hmmmm.
Johnson has already won his 1945 victory unlike Churchill and is pushing heavy handed state intervention across the board
And so markets are falling like stones once again.
It was inevitable. Yesterday was the biggest dead cat bounce ever.
This bear market will run for months, maybe years
I'm afraid I think you're right. I warned my friend who previously ignored me two months ago to seize the moment. I think he's ignored me again and is now regretting it. A long slow slide is coming, I fear.
Having traded a few situations like this now, one thing that strikes me is that you seem to get second chance. Indeed three chances, really.
The first day of the crash, when it appears that you have missed the boat, is usually just the beginning. Getting on trend during the first day of a dramatic selloff is rarely a bad move (as I posted as advice on Monday lunchtime, for anyone who cares to check).
And there is almost always a rebound at some stage that gives people another chance to jump on. Today the Dow almost made it back up to 27,000; maybe that was it.
The final lesson is that the market rebound comes quickly and when you least expect it, and usually when the real world crisis is far from resolved. That’s the most difficult one to spot of all, and I can’t claim ever to have managed it.
OK as a final service before I shop, here are the mortality rates for all the countries that have disclosed cases and have recorded deaths. I know it's crude, but I think it is also illuminating (in descending number of cases)
China: 3.67%
Korea: 0.66%
Italy: 3.16%
Iran: 3.3%
Diamond Princess: 0.85%
Japan: 2.05%
France: 1.96%
USA: 6.48% (the disadvantages of not testing)
Hong Kong: 1.98%
Thailand: 2.08%
Taiwan: 2.44%
Australia:2.56%
San Marino: 10%
The Philippines: 33%
What does that teach us? Well, firstly: that I know how to waste my time, but secondly, the average mortality rate worldwide is about 2.5%.
And also, don't go to the Philippines.
Titanic, Lusitania, Costa Concordia, Gammon Princess: passenger ships don't seem to hit the headlines for the right reasons ever.
I completely disagree with the concensus over Trump here. What he can actually *do* as President is imo limited. All he can really do is maintain a positive optimistic face, and he seems to be doing that.
By contrast, look at Tony Blair, the twat, donning full protective gear and emoting on the scene of Foot and Mouth disease. Those images went around the world and did untold and unnecessary damage to the tourism industry.
Just like your beloved Trumpton, you can’t spell consensus.
Thanks for pointing that out, it's a blind spot. Trump isn't my beloved anything, he is a deeply vulgar person and an extremely unfortunate President. However, I speak as I find.
The most bizarre thing about this crisis is how mortal enemies Iran and the USA have both been pushed back to calling upon religion for salvation.
Add in the home of the Catholic church and the South Korean sect and its almost as if prayer isnt as good at dealing with illnesses as science. Who would have thought it?
They did a clinical trial in cardiac patients a few years back
From memory prayer has a mildly positive effect (better than placebo but only clinically relevant rather than statistically significant). It achieved significant in secondary effects.
They postulated it was down to a psychosomatic effect on healing
Au contraire Blackadder....
"patients who knew they were being prayed for had a higher rate of post-operative complications like abnormal heart rhythms, perhaps because of the expectations the prayers created, the researchers suggested. ... being aware of the strangers' prayers also may have caused some of the patients a kind of performance anxiety."
Comments
I have gone from alarmed in late January to confident in late Feb / early March. We already know a hell of a lot more than we did.
I’m on both.
Reaction from my sales guys to the cut was “what do they know that we don’t”?
Today's America is not the America of the 40s, 50s and 60s, any more than Britain is any longer the nation of the exploring empire builders or industrial innovators. Today's Britain would not exhibit the Blitz spirit, it would due for peace.
We should not be surprised: modern Italy and Greece could not emulate their classical forebears. The inherent character of nations changes over time.
Obviously not the health story of the moment though!
All I can do is wish you the very best of luck and I hope that your treatment goes as well as my brother-in-law's
Unbelievably grim. Stick around. Fight the cancer bastard.
xx
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-cases-in-the-uk-rise-to-51-11948376
*England
I hope that you stay well enough to continue looking after Mrs Nicomar for a long time.
From memory prayer has a mildly positive effect (better than placebo but only clinically relevant rather than statistically significant). It achieved significant in secondary effects.
They postulated it was down to a psychosomatic effect on healing
Should I insist she self-isolates in the garden shed for a fortnight? Just in case, like.....
At these levels however the effect on both loans and NPVs will be modest to say the least.
"patients who knew they were being prayed for had a higher rate of post-operative complications like abnormal heart rhythms, perhaps because of the expectations the prayers created, the researchers suggested.
...
being aware of the strangers' prayers also may have caused some of the patients a kind of performance anxiety."
https://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/31/health/longawaited-medical-study-questions-the-power-of-prayer.html
Spanish death in Valencia on Feb 13th, before Spain had a single confirmed case. So it's likely been spreading in Spain since late Jan, and Valencia is in the middle of a massive festival. This is bad news.
If central banks are paying zero interest then that sets the level field. Currently nobody trusts the central banks to not do daft things. However a central bank paying 0.25% on deposits is in some ways a dream Economic scenario.
If though ~0% interest rates on deposits becomes the norm then there are fantastic opportunities in equity markets. The only thing holding them back is, paradoxically, the wildly unclear central-bank thinking.
In this case it would be, US tests reveal their problem is very geographically limited and they act to contain it, the Italian situation improves due to their drastic containment. Spread of the virus abates because it turns out to be superspreader-centric, with most carriers not being highly infectious, and it turns out not to like warmer weather after all. And central banks’ promise of easy money keeps markets afloat despite the real economy slowly sinking.
Not sure it’s hugely convincing (although I do think people won’t be so worried once they see deaths are uncommon and mostly of the elderly and ill), but there we are.
As anybody here who's worked in complex systems knows, blame should usually be attributed to many people in varying degrees. Most serious problems happen because there have been lots of lapses, not because one person did something.
China's government was late to recognise the issue, and late to impose measures. But impose measures it has.
The US's response to this natural disaster was first to bury its head in the sand. If it had done differently, then it is likely that more would have been done to stem the flow of the disease. The US may not have been responsible for infected people reaching the country. But it is responsible for taking actions once its happened to safeguard its people.
Saying "it's all someone else's fault" is an abrogation of responsibility on an epic scale.
Trump is worse than Chamberlain
I would have thought if anyone has breached their duty of care to their population and the wider global population it is the Chinese government in allowing open meat markets and experiments on bats which led to the coronavirus outbreak in the first place
The first day of the crash, when it appears that you have missed the boat, is usually just the beginning. Getting on trend during the first day of a dramatic selloff is rarely a bad move (as I posted as advice on Monday lunchtime, for anyone who cares to check).
And there is almost always a rebound at some stage that gives people another chance to jump on. Today the Dow almost made it back up to 27,000; maybe that was it.
The final lesson is that the market rebound comes quickly and when you least expect it, and usually when the real world crisis is far from resolved. That’s the most difficult one to spot of all, and I can’t claim ever to have managed it.
https://twitter.com/theothebald/status/1234832241488023552?s=21
It’s just that the damage will be hidden and drawn out.