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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren looks a promising bet in Massachusetts following the Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawals

A big problem with just about all the Super Tuesday polls is that they were carried out before Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar announced that they were pulling out so it is hard to assess where their support will go.

Read the full story here

Philip_Thompson

Unlikely but amusingly if all Buttigieg and Klobuchar voters followed their candidates example and voted for Biden then he could also win it and either Sanders or Warren could come third.

Available at 16/1, is that value?

Sunil_Prasannan

Second

Stocky

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

AlastairMeeks

https://twitter.com/MattGrossmann/status/1234814922703491072

tlg86

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

Presumably they'd have already settled the market by that point.

Philip_Thompson

Sanders is Jeremy Corbyn issue #9356

https://twitter.com/markos/status/1234577158883827712

Stocky

tlg86 said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

Presumably they'd have already settled the market by that point.

No I don`t think so, because there is another condition that says that the election in 2020 must have gone ahead.

eek

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

felix

I see Owen Jones is organising a campaign to elect Bernie for POTUS. Buy Biden!

Pulpstar

I've laid Sanders for tuppence ha'penny here at 1.4

TGOHF666

For the Democrats they shouldn’t think it’s better to lose with Bernie than Biden.

Look at Labour - they lost with a commie crank and have they learned or gained anything ?

Nope.

Dems should go for Biden even if he will lose to Trump.

tlg86

Stocky said:

tlg86 said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

Presumably they'd have already settled the market by that point.

No I don`t think so, because there is another condition that says that the election in 2020 must have gone ahead.

The general election? That's a bit weird - why would Betfair want to leave open the possibility of something happening that voids the market that's already done and dusted?

Pulpstar

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

Back the likely VPs and knocked out candidates in the presidential market at 1000

TheScreamingEagles

felix said:

I see Owen Jones is organising a campaign to elect Bernie for POTUS. Buy Biden!

Who is Eddie Izzard backing?

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

There must be a really serious chance that one of these candidates will die or fall very ill from coronavirus. Sanders looks particularly vulnerable: old, visibly frail, recent heart attack, male. He's in a very high risk category, and he should be avoiding crowds! He's doing the one thing most likely to kill him.

This is not unlikely. Coronavirus is scything through Iranian politicians.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1234772870019960833?s=20

Its one way of getting regime change...

Chameleon

One massive concern I have are universities. They are ideal for covert outbreaks.

It's especially bad because of Uni demographics, they're young and generally fit, which means they won't feel much more than a slight cold on the whole.

Lots of people at a major university or two getting the virus then returning home for Easter would distribute cases all over the country, and burst containment.

TheScreamingEagles

eadric said:

It's also attacking German politicians


https://twitter.com/watch_union/status/1234825438192689152?s=20

Being a politician is probably the riskiest job on the planet right now. All that baby kissing and sitting in rooms.

Nah, being a hooker is.

All those clients, all that touching, kissing and more.

FrancisUrquhart

Chameleon said:

One massive concern I have are universities. They are ideal for covert outbreaks.

It's especially bad because of Uni demographics, they're young and generally fit, which means they won't feel much more than a slight cold on the whole.

Lots of people at a major university or two getting the virus then returning home for Easter would distribute cases all over the country, and burst containment.

I think it is nailed on they will be large spreaders. Think what happens every Freshers week, every uni ends up as some mass outbreak of cold / flu type illness.

And by the time somebody tests positive, they will have come into close contact with masses of people.

Kevin_McCandless

If Joe Biden is your party's answer to all those former Democratic voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.... well, yeah.... Good luck with that.

TOPPING

TheScreamingEagles said:

eadric said:

It's also attacking German politicians


https://twitter.com/watch_union/status/1234825438192689152?s=20

Being a politician is probably the riskiest job on the planet right now. All that baby kissing and sitting in rooms.

Nah, being a hooker is.

All those clients, all that touching, kissing and more.

I used to know some working girls and they said the secret was to get it "over with" before anyone actually touched anything.

CarlottaVance

FPT:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Surely must be about time for the UK daily updated figures, no?

Daily at 14.00 UK - data to 09.00 that day.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

There must be a really serious chance that one of these candidates will die or fall very ill from coronavirus. Sanders looks particularly vulnerable: old, visibly frail, recent heart attack, male. He's in a very high risk category, and he should be avoiding crowds! He's doing the one thing most likely to kill him.

This is not unlikely. Coronavirus is scything through Iranian politicians.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1234772870019960833?s=20

Its one way of getting regime change...

Has any government had a shittier 2020 than the Iranians?

I mean having one of your top guys taken out by a drone strike by the Great Satan, then shooting down a passenger plane in the aftermath, then handling Covid-19 very badly.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

eadric said:

It's also attacking German politicians


https://twitter.com/watch_union/status/1234825438192689152?s=20

Being a politician is probably the riskiest job on the planet right now. All that baby kissing and sitting in rooms.

Nah, being a hooker is.

All those clients, all that touching, kissing and more.

Are all those in the knocking shop in Spain still stuck there?

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eadric said:

It's also attacking German politicians


https://twitter.com/watch_union/status/1234825438192689152?s=20

Being a politician is probably the riskiest job on the planet right now. All that baby kissing and sitting in rooms.

Nah, being a hooker is.

All those clients, all that touching, kissing and more.

Are all those in the knocking shop in Spain still stuck there?

I believe so, just over a week left I think.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

There must be a really serious chance that one of these candidates will die or fall very ill from coronavirus. Sanders looks particularly vulnerable: old, visibly frail, recent heart attack, male. He's in a very high risk category, and he should be avoiding crowds! He's doing the one thing most likely to kill him.

This is not unlikely. Coronavirus is scything through Iranian politicians.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1234772870019960833?s=20

Its one way of getting regime change...

Has any government had a shittier 2020 than the Iranians?

I mean having one of your top guys taken out by a drone strike by the Great Satan, then shooting down a passenger plane in the aftermath, then handling Covid-19 very badly.

Trump is giving it a good go...

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eadric said:

It's also attacking German politicians


https://twitter.com/watch_union/status/1234825438192689152?s=20

Being a politician is probably the riskiest job on the planet right now. All that baby kissing and sitting in rooms.

Nah, being a hooker is.

All those clients, all that touching, kissing and more.

Are all those in the knocking shop in Spain still stuck there?

I believe so, just over a week left I think.

Wonder if they are out of condoms yet?

rottenborough

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eadric said:

It's also attacking German politicians


https://twitter.com/watch_union/status/1234825438192689152?s=20

Being a politician is probably the riskiest job on the planet right now. All that baby kissing and sitting in rooms.

Nah, being a hooker is.

All those clients, all that touching, kissing and more.

Are all those in the knocking shop in Spain still stuck there?

I believe so, just over a week left I think.

Wonder if they are out of condoms yet?

Just realised that quite a few people might run out of contraceptives.

This really IS going to change the age profile of the planet.

Nailed on bump in births in a years time. There is only so much Baby Yoda you can watch...

TheScreamingEagles

12 more people test positive.

contrarian

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

There must be a really serious chance that one of these candidates will die or fall very ill from coronavirus. Sanders looks particularly vulnerable: old, visibly frail, recent heart attack, male. He's in a very high risk category, and he should be avoiding crowds! He's doing the one thing most likely to kill him.

This is not unlikely. Coronavirus is scything through Iranian politicians.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1234772870019960833?s=20

Its one way of getting regime change...

Has any government had a shittier 2020 than the Iranians?

I mean having one of your top guys taken out by a drone strike by the Great Satan, then shooting down a passenger plane in the aftermath, then handling Covid-19 very badly.

LOL......Joining the Trumpistas pushing for regime change?

FrancisUrquhart

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

I guess it is probably OK if you immediately wash your hands afterwards? Maybe?

Either way, why take the risk? Just bump elbows. Stupid.

I think because imagine the PR of Boris meeting people and then refusing to touch them like they are a leper. There would be videos all over the internet ranging from look at the posho unwilling to touch the great unwashed to massive panicking.

You really can't win in these situations if you a politician.

Philip_Thompson

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

Wrong again.

He was on stage with the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Science Officer and neither of them said that. The advice at this stage is to wash your hands, not to avoid shaking hands. The Chief Medial Officer has said the day they advise against shaking hands may come soon but that is not currently the advice.

nichomar

FrancisUrquhart said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eadric said:

It's also attacking German politicians


https://twitter.com/watch_union/status/1234825438192689152?s=20

Being a politician is probably the riskiest job on the planet right now. All that baby kissing and sitting in rooms.

Nah, being a hooker is.

All those clients, all that touching, kissing and more.

Are all those in the knocking shop in Spain still stuck there?

I’m 90% sure that was fake news

TheScreamingEagles

contrarian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

There must be a really serious chance that one of these candidates will die or fall very ill from coronavirus. Sanders looks particularly vulnerable: old, visibly frail, recent heart attack, male. He's in a very high risk category, and he should be avoiding crowds! He's doing the one thing most likely to kill him.

This is not unlikely. Coronavirus is scything through Iranian politicians.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1234772870019960833?s=20

Its one way of getting regime change...

Has any government had a shittier 2020 than the Iranians?

I mean having one of your top guys taken out by a drone strike by the Great Satan, then shooting down a passenger plane in the aftermath, then handling Covid-19 very badly.

LOL......Joining the Trumpistas pushing for regime change?

I've been arguing for regime change for decades, before Trump even knew where Iran was.

I'm the founder of the Start The War Coalition.

rottenborough

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

I guess it is probably OK if you immediately wash your hands afterwards? Maybe?

Either way, why take the risk? Just bump elbows. Stupid.

I agree. I wont be shaking hands for next few months.

Nigelb

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

I guess it is probably OK if you immediately wash your hands afterwards? Maybe?

Either way, why take the risk? Just bump elbows. Stupid.

I think because imagine the PR of Boris meeting people and then refusing to touch them like they are a leper. There would be videos all over the internet ranging from look at the posho unwilling to touch the great unwashed to massive panicking.

You really can't win in these situations if you a politician.

A polite bow, as in Japan or Korea, ought to suffice.

FrancisUrquhart

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

I guess it is probably OK if you immediately wash your hands afterwards? Maybe?

Either way, why take the risk? Just bump elbows. Stupid.

I think because imagine the PR of Boris meeting people and then refusing to touch them like they are a leper. There would be videos all over the internet ranging from look at the posho unwilling to touch the great unwashed to massive panicking.

You really can't win in these situations if you a politician.

A polite bow, as in Japan or Korea, ought to suffice.

In Tanzania, the president did a leg shake.

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

I guess it is probably OK if you immediately wash your hands afterwards? Maybe?

Either way, why take the risk? Just bump elbows. Stupid.

I think because imagine the PR of Boris meeting people and then refusing to touch them like they are a leper. There would be videos all over the internet ranging from look at the posho unwilling to touch the great unwashed to massive panicking.

You really can't win in these situations if you a politician.

A polite bow, as in Japan or Korea, ought to suffice.

In Tanzania, the president did a leg shake.

If I were PM I'd greet everybody Gangnam style.

Stocky

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

No - I realise that. But if the candidate won the nomoination at the DNC and then died my understanding of the rules is that BF would still pay out on the dead candidate even though a different candidate goes on to fight the general election.

contrarian

TheScreamingEagles said:

contrarian said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

There must be a really serious chance that one of these candidates will die or fall very ill from coronavirus. Sanders looks particularly vulnerable: old, visibly frail, recent heart attack, male. He's in a very high risk category, and he should be avoiding crowds! He's doing the one thing most likely to kill him.

This is not unlikely. Coronavirus is scything through Iranian politicians.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1234772870019960833?s=20

Its one way of getting regime change...

Has any government had a shittier 2020 than the Iranians?

I mean having one of your top guys taken out by a drone strike by the Great Satan, then shooting down a passenger plane in the aftermath, then handling Covid-19 very badly.

LOL......Joining the Trumpistas pushing for regime change?

I've been arguing for regime change for decades, before Trump even knew where Iran was.

I'm the founder of the Start The War Coalition.

Its a huge shame, right enough. A countryn with massive potential. I hope it happens one day,

Alistair

Kevin_McCandless said:

If Joe Biden is your party's answer to all those former Democratic voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.... well, yeah.... Good luck with that.

If African-Americans had turned out at 2012 levels then the Dems would have won Michigan.

Biden is the clear, clear pick of African-American voters.

In Wisconsin the absolute vote was down. Trump got less votes than Romney.

rottenborough

Virus probably doesn't last on surfaces more than 48 hours says GP on R4.

Philip_Thompson

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

Wrong again.

He was on stage with the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Science Officer and neither of them said that. The advice at this stage is to wash your hands, not to avoid shaking hands. The Chief Medial Officer has said the day they advise against shaking hands may come soon but that is not currently the advice.

Jesus Christ. Do some reading

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1234808733529726976?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1231582022524719105?s=20

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1233826545598369797?s=20

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1234470884410261504?s=20

https://twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1234565910058299392?s=20

Quotes from random people on Twitter, I can do the same if I could be arsed showing the opposition opinion. That is why we have a Chief Medical Officer who gives out proper advice.

The Chief Medical Officer trumps random Twitteroids and I'll stick with that advice thank you very much.

MarqueeMark

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

eek said:

Stocky said:

Betting question: Betfair`s Dem candidate market rules say: "This market will be settled on the candidate voted to be the Democratic Party nominee as a result of the 2020 Democratic National Convention."

So if a candidate is hailed as the nominee but later on suffered a medical problem, or dies, and another candidate steps in to go on to fight the election against Trump, BF would pay out on the original nominee? Correct?

The candidate still has to get to the convention and receive the nomination - if they die before the convention which is July 16th - 19th you wouldn't win the bet.

There must be a really serious chance that one of these candidates will die or fall very ill from coronavirus. Sanders looks particularly vulnerable: old, visibly frail, recent heart attack, male. He's in a very high risk category, and he should be avoiding crowds! He's doing the one thing most likely to kill him.

This is not unlikely. Coronavirus is scything through Iranian politicians.


https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/status/1234772870019960833?s=20

Its one way of getting regime change...

Has any government had a shittier 2020 than the Iranians?

I mean having one of your top guys taken out by a drone strike by the Great Satan, then shooting down a passenger plane in the aftermath, then handling Covid-19 very badly.

Flip that around - let's hope no-one has a worse 2020.

However, America re-electing Trump might yet prove to be.

rottenborough

GP on R4: Don't shake hands

TOPPING

OK team - what about the next PB meet up?

One is overdue isn't it?

tlg86

The Guardian on the verge of civil war...

https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1234826071851315200

MarqueeMark

Nigelb said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

I guess it is probably OK if you immediately wash your hands afterwards? Maybe?

Either way, why take the risk? Just bump elbows. Stupid.

I think because imagine the PR of Boris meeting people and then refusing to touch them like they are a leper. There would be videos all over the internet ranging from look at the posho unwilling to touch the great unwashed to massive panicking.

You really can't win in these situations if you a politician.

A polite bow, as in Japan or Korea, ought to suffice.

As long as no-one sneezes whilst your bowing..... You just narrowed the gap!

Philip_Thompson

Health Secretary live now in Parliament "the medical advice on shaking hands is the impact of shaking hands is negligible what really matters is washing hands, so our public health advice is clear and will remain based upon that science"

Richard_Nabavi

Just don't shake hands with Mike Pence.

MarqueeMark

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

Wrong again.

He was on stage with the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Science Officer and neither of them said that. The advice at this stage is to wash your hands, not to avoid shaking hands. The Chief Medial Officer has said the day they advise against shaking hands may come soon but that is not currently the advice.

Jesus Christ. Do some reading

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1234808733529726976?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1231582022524719105?s=20

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1233826545598369797?s=20

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1234470884410261504?s=20

https://twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1234565910058299392?s=20

Quotes from random people on Twitter, I can do the same if I could be arsed showing the opposition opinion. That is why we have a Chief Medical Officer who gives out proper advice.

The Chief Medical Officer trumps random Twitteroids and I'll stick with that advice thank you very much.

Why doesn't the world adopt the Yorkshire greeting? The tiniest nod of the head to acknowledge the presence of another, with an optional, if slightly grumpy "'ow do?"

HYUFD

We have a Maine poll out now excluding Buttigieg and Klobuchar and Sanders still ahead there

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234699179978612736?s=20

nichomar

Philip_Thompson said:

Health Secretary live now in Parliament "the medical advice on shaking hands is the impact of shaking hands is negligible what really matters is washing hands, so our public health advice is clear and will remain based upon that science"

You are trusting the other person to have washed theirs though. Have just returned fro hospital where the doctor shook my hand twice,

Philip_Thompson

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

Wrong again.

He was on stage with the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Science Officer and neither of them said that. The advice at this stage is to wash your hands, not to avoid shaking hands. The Chief Medial Officer has said the day they advise against shaking hands may come soon but that is not currently the advice.

Jesus Christ. Do some reading

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1234808733529726976?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1231582022524719105?s=20

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1233826545598369797?s=20

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1234470884410261504?s=20

https://twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1234565910058299392?s=20

Quotes from random people on Twitter, I can do the same if I could be arsed showing the opposition opinion. That is why we have a Chief Medical Officer who gives out proper advice.

The Chief Medical Officer trumps random Twitteroids and I'll stick with that advice thank you very much.

They're all virologists, experts, health ministers, etc. See the blue ticks. Not "random people on Twitter".

Tell you what, Philip. You go off and do your thing, go to loads of parties and gigs, go to the cinema every evening, spend time in crowded pubs, shake hands with strangers, dance the tango with people who are coughing, have a ton of fun. That's fair enough, it's your choice.

I'll put £50 behind the bar at your wake*.


*This is a joke. I don't want you to snuff it. I like you. I just think you are being a bit blinkered

LOL. Not blinkered, I believe in science not drama. If the science starts to say stop shaking hands (and the Chief Medical Officer has said that day may come but is not here yet) then at that point I would respect that. As it stands it is unnecessary.

Having said that YMMV, if I was high-risk rather than healthy I would adopt it early as a precaution. But as a healthy young man I'm not going to contradict the Chief Medical Officer of the UK.

MarqueeMark

UK hits 51 cases....

AlastairMeeks

I was at a livery hall event last night where I saw two 75 year olds unironically bump elbows on meeting. I was halfway between being amused and being impressed at their pragmatic adaptability to changing circumstances.

contrarian

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

Wrong again.

He was on stage with the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Science Officer and neither of them said that. The advice at this stage is to wash your hands, not to avoid shaking hands. The Chief Medial Officer has said the day they advise against shaking hands may come soon but that is not currently the advice.

Jesus Christ. Do some reading

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1234808733529726976?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1231582022524719105?s=20

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1233826545598369797?s=20

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1234470884410261504?s=20

https://twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1234565910058299392?s=20

Quotes from random people on Twitter, I can do the same if I could be arsed showing the opposition opinion. That is why we have a Chief Medical Officer who gives out proper advice.

The Chief Medical Officer trumps random Twitteroids and I'll stick with that advice thank you very much.

They're all virologists, experts, health ministers, etc. See the blue ticks. Not "random people on Twitter".

Tell you what, Philip. You go off and do your thing, go to loads of parties and gigs, go to the cinema every evening, spend time in crowded pubs, shake hands with strangers, dance the tango with people who are coughing, have a ton of fun. That's fair enough, it's your choice.

I'll put £50 behind the bar at your wake*.


*This is a joke. I don't want you to snuff it. I like you. I just think you are being a bit blinkered

I saw a headline in the telly that one per cent of those who contract Corona could die.

Turn it around and its a 99% survival rate. And this is before a vaccine.

Scott_xP

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1234833740897144832

Richard_Nabavi

AlastairMeeks said:

I was at a livery hall event last night where I saw two 75 year olds unironically bump elbows on meeting. I was halfway between being amused and being impressed at their pragmatic adaptability to changing circumstances.

Did they skip the loving cup stuff?

Alistair

tlg86 said:

The Guardian on the verge of civil war...

https://twitter.com/MediaGuido/status/1234826071851315200

I see transphobes are being silenced again by *checks notes* having a full page article in the Guardian.

AlastairMeeks

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1234833740897144832

No change in Pence's condition.

Alistair

Should be noted the Guardian's USA staff put in a complaint to management about how transphobic the paper was so this is hardly new.

FeersumEnjineeya

contrarian said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

Wrong again.

He was on stage with the Chief Medical Officer and the Chief Science Officer and neither of them said that. The advice at this stage is to wash your hands, not to avoid shaking hands. The Chief Medial Officer has said the day they advise against shaking hands may come soon but that is not currently the advice.

Jesus Christ. Do some reading

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1234808733529726976?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1231582022524719105?s=20

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1233826545598369797?s=20

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1234470884410261504?s=20

https://twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1234565910058299392?s=20

Quotes from random people on Twitter, I can do the same if I could be arsed showing the opposition opinion. That is why we have a Chief Medical Officer who gives out proper advice.

The Chief Medical Officer trumps random Twitteroids and I'll stick with that advice thank you very much.

They're all virologists, experts, health ministers, etc. See the blue ticks. Not "random people on Twitter".

Tell you what, Philip. You go off and do your thing, go to loads of parties and gigs, go to the cinema every evening, spend time in crowded pubs, shake hands with strangers, dance the tango with people who are coughing, have a ton of fun. That's fair enough, it's your choice.

I'll put £50 behind the bar at your wake*.


*This is a joke. I don't want you to snuff it. I like you. I just think you are being a bit blinkered

I saw a headline in the telly that one per cent of those who contract Corona could die.

Turn it around and its a 99% survival rate. And this is before a vaccine.

So only about 10 times as lethal as flu? Phew, that's a relief!

Philip_Thompson

AlastairMeeks said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1234833740897144832

No change in Pence's condition.

One wonders if Pence or Trump got the virus whether they'd even tell the media that they had.

Any other government absolutely, but these two would probably just shush it up.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I was at a livery hall event last night where I saw two 75 year olds unironically bump elbows on meeting. I was halfway between being amused and being impressed at their pragmatic adaptability to changing circumstances.

Did they skip the loving cup stuff?

It was a bridge competition (I was stupendously rusty) so none of that nonsense was going on anyway. We were well fed and watered, so play in the second half was considerably looser than in the first half.

It was a good excuse to have another look around Draper's Hall.

Nigelb

eadric said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

eadric said:

rottenborough said:

eadric said:

There was one jarring moment in Boris Johnson's otherwise excellent presser.

When he jovially said "Oh yes, I'm still shaking hands, I shook the hands of some coronavirus sufferers yesterday!"

I can see why he might say this in a cheerul, stoical, British, Keep Calm and Get a Buxom Girlfriend way, but as far as I can tell it is bad advice.

Experts say do NOT shake hands. Bump elbows, or wave, or touch your shoes together. Do NOT shake hands.

Tsk.

experts seem divided on this. pretty sure one of them this morning said it made little difference.

I guess it is probably OK if you immediately wash your hands afterwards? Maybe?

Either way, why take the risk? Just bump elbows. Stupid.

I think because imagine the PR of Boris meeting people and then refusing to touch them like they are a leper. There would be videos all over the internet ranging from look at the posho unwilling to touch the great unwashed to massive panicking.

You really can't win in these situations if you a politician.

Yes, that's probably it. Tho this German politician doesn't seem to care

https://twitter.com/CoronavirusUSA0/status/1234506735890681856?s=20

That's a disgraceful tweet.


'Siting' ?

Kevin_McCandless

Alistair said:

Kevin_McCandless said:

If Joe Biden is your party's answer to all those former Democratic voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.... well, yeah.... Good luck with that.

If African-Americans had turned out at 2012 levels then the Dems would have won Michigan.

Biden is the clear, clear pick of African-American voters.

In Wisconsin the absolute vote was down. Trump got less votes than Romney.

He's the clear pick of the African-American voters in the Democratic primary. And short of George Wallace coming back from the dead, anyone the Democrats run in the general will be their clear pick in the general.

That being said, those states clearly weren't thrilled with the Obama legacy. And now the Dems are going to run his Vice-President.

AlastairMeeks

Philip_Thompson said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1234833740897144832

No change in Pence's condition.

One wonders if Pence or Trump got the virus whether they'd even tell the media that they had.

Any other government absolutely, but these two would probably just shush it up.

The Vice-President isn't allowed to be in a room with a virus without his wife present as well.

Pulpstar

Here are "Data for progress" Super Tuesday numbers run through the delegate calculator :

429 Biden
429 Sanders
261 Bloomberg
222 Warren

Nigelb

AlastairMeeks said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AlastairMeeks said:

I was at a livery hall event last night where I saw two 75 year olds unironically bump elbows on meeting. I was halfway between being amused and being impressed at their pragmatic adaptability to changing circumstances.

Did they skip the loving cup stuff?

It was a bridge competition (I was stupendously rusty) so none of that nonsense was going on anyway. We were well fed and watered, so play in the second half was considerably looser than in the first half.

It was a good excuse to have another look around Draper's Hall.

No Trumps my favourite contract.

Nigelb

AlastairMeeks said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1234833740897144832

No change in Pence's condition.

Creepy as ever, then ?

LostPassword

TOPPING said:

OK team - what about the next PB meet up?

One is overdue isn't it?

You could have it in a park somewhere, everyone stand two metres apart with their supermarket beer and holler at each other (no change there then). The police will be too busy to take issue.

NickPalmer

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Pulpstar

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Nick it was never "double every day" !

Alistair

Kevin_McCandless said:

Alistair said:

Kevin_McCandless said:

If Joe Biden is your party's answer to all those former Democratic voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.... well, yeah.... Good luck with that.

If African-Americans had turned out at 2012 levels then the Dems would have won Michigan.

Biden is the clear, clear pick of African-American voters.

In Wisconsin the absolute vote was down. Trump got less votes than Romney.

He's the clear pick of the African-American voters in the Democratic primary. And short of George Wallace coming back from the dead, anyone the Democrats run in the general will be their clear pick in the general.

That being said, those states clearly weren't thrilled with the Obama legacy. And now the Dems are going to run his Vice-President.

How many Oamam 2012 - Trump 2016 switxhers were there and how many Obama 2012 - StayingAtHomeNotVotingForHilary voters were there?

Nigelb

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Health Secretary live now in Parliament "the medical advice on shaking hands is the impact of shaking hands is negligible what really matters is washing hands, so our public health advice is clear and will remain based upon that science"

You are trusting the other person to have washed theirs though. Have just returned fro hospital where the doctor shook my hand twice,

More to the point, advising not to shake hands reinforces the message that hands transmit infection - which reinforces the wash hands advice.
Simple and consistent messages are most likely to be widely followed, and this one is important.

FWIW, there seems to be a working hypothesis that this thing is far more readily spread by physical contact than the airborne route.

Any medics care to comment ?

Philip_Thompson

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Nick it was never "double every day" !

It was in other countries who'd hit this many cases, like in Italy. Worth bearing in mind that it isn't even 51 sick I believe, I believe the 51 includes cases who've been discharged already.

Our methods are working to slow it, definitely.

Richard_Nabavi

Bernie now out to 3.15-3.2. That's beginning to look a bit overdone, isn't it?

Philip_Thompson

eadric said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Yes, we are doing better so far. Long may it continue.

Germany, France and Korea have just reported big jumps.

Singapore and Taiwan still doing a good job of containing it.

Iran is a nightmare.

Quite a lot of variation.

As I said to you yesterday. It is not jingoistic to say UK with our NHS and our structural advantages is better placed to face this than other nations like Iran.

DavidL

contrarian said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

Philip_Thompson said:

eadric said:

Jesus Christ. Do some reading

https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1234808733529726976?s=20

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1231582022524719105?s=20

https://twitter.com/mayawiley/status/1233826545598369797?s=20

https://twitter.com/mims/status/1234470884410261504?s=20

https://twitter.com/BreakfastNews/status/1234565910058299392?s=20

Quotes from random people on Twitter, I can do the same if I could be arsed showing the opposition opinion. That is why we have a Chief Medical Officer who gives out proper advice.

The Chief Medical Officer trumps random Twitteroids and I'll stick with that advice thank you very much.

They're all virologists, experts, health ministers, etc. See the blue ticks. Not "random people on Twitter".

Tell you what, Philip. You go off and do your thing, go to loads of parties and gigs, go to the cinema every evening, spend time in crowded pubs, shake hands with strangers, dance the tango with people who are coughing, have a ton of fun. That's fair enough, it's your choice.

I'll put £50 behind the bar at your wake*.


*This is a joke. I don't want you to snuff it. I like you. I just think you are being a bit blinkered

I saw a headline in the telly that one per cent of those who contract Corona could die.

Turn it around and its a 99% survival rate. And this is before a vaccine.

May I respectfully suggest that this is a slightly thoughtless way of looking at it. What we know about this virus is that for most younger people it is a passing inconvenience and little threat but for the older and sicker part of our society it is a potentially lethal threat requiring at best substantial hospital treatment.

The issue is not whether you get the virus or not. The issue is whether the elderly or sick you come into contact with do. We all have a duty to take all reasonable steps to either prevent or at least slow down the spread of this virus for others, if not ourselves so that our medical facilities can cope and those at risk have the best chance.

Quincel

HYUFD said:

We have a Maine poll out now excluding Buttigieg and Klobuchar and Sanders still ahead there

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1234699179978612736?s=20

True, but Change Research are perhaps the most Sanders-favoured pollster in this race. A week ago they released a national poll which had him on 40% to Biden's 9%! Warren was 2nd on 20%.

https://www.electionscience.org/commentary-analysis/two-thirds-of-democratic-voters-support-multiple-candidates-but-current-polls-wont-tell-you-that/

FrancisUrquhart

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

While it seems China's eventual reaction has done well, one downside they are struggling to find enough new cases to test the drugs under trial.

This is also positive...

A critical unknown is how many mild or asymptomatic cases occur. If large numbers of infections are below the radar, that complicates attempts to isolate infectious people and slow spread of the virus. But on the positive side, if the virus causes few, if any, symptoms in many infected people, the current estimated case fatality rate is too high.

Alistair

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bernie now out to 3.15-3.2. That's beginning to look a bit overdone, isn't it?

MY early sell of Biden is now looking hellaciously foolish.

I agree though, this looks over done. I'm not really in a position to try and make a decisive financial move on this. I'll just take the green I have and be happy about it.

HYUFD

Alistair said:

Kevin_McCandless said:

Alistair said:

Kevin_McCandless said:

If Joe Biden is your party's answer to all those former Democratic voters in Michigan and Wisconsin.... well, yeah.... Good luck with that.

If African-Americans had turned out at 2012 levels then the Dems would have won Michigan.

Biden is the clear, clear pick of African-American voters.

In Wisconsin the absolute vote was down. Trump got less votes than Romney.

He's the clear pick of the African-American voters in the Democratic primary. And short of George Wallace coming back from the dead, anyone the Democrats run in the general will be their clear pick in the general.

That being said, those states clearly weren't thrilled with the Obama legacy. And now the Dems are going to run his Vice-President.

How many Oamam 2012 - Trump 2016 switxhers were there and how many Obama 2012 - StayingAtHomeNotVotingForHilary voters were there?

Romney got 60 million votes in 2012, Trump got 62 million votes in 2016.

Obama got 65 million 900 000 votes in 2012, Hillary got 65 million 800 000 votes, so there was a small shift of Obama voters to Trump but a bigger turnout overall for Trump than for Romney and only a small case of Obama voters staying at home and not voting for Hillary

Quincel

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bernie now out to 3.15-3.2. That's beginning to look a bit overdone, isn't it?

Yes.

Philip_Thompson

Nigelb said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Health Secretary live now in Parliament "the medical advice on shaking hands is the impact of shaking hands is negligible what really matters is washing hands, so our public health advice is clear and will remain based upon that science"

You are trusting the other person to have washed theirs though. Have just returned fro hospital where the doctor shook my hand twice,

More to the point, advising not to shake hands reinforces the message that hands transmit infection - which reinforces the wash hands advice.
Simple and consistent messages are most likely to be widely followed, and this one is important.

FWIW, there seems to be a working hypothesis that this thing is far more readily spread by physical contact than the airborne route.

Any medics care to comment ?

Not shaking hands can be like wearing non-disposable gloves, it gives a false sense of security and thus means people think falsely that they don't need to wash their hands.

Sunil_Prasannan

eadric said:

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Nick it was never "double every day" !

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Nick it was never "double every day" !

It was double every other day. But we're not quite doing that either.

At the moment our infection graph looks a bit more like Taiwan than it does Germany or Korea.

It may just be because we're later to the party, OR we are genuinely containing this in some way.

First cases in the UK were back on 31st January.

TheScreamingEagles

The House of Mouse is chicken.

Disney has been forced to scrap plans for a glitzy European press launch for Disney+ in London this week after the event became one of the latest industry gatherings to be hit by coronavirus fears.

Disney was hosting the party at the Exhibition London event space on March 5 to “celebrate the European launch of Disney+.” It was set to include “exclusive” presentations from key executives and creative heads, while a number of special guests were expected to attend.

However, the company has axed the event, which was expected to host hundreds of people, over fears of the global pandemic, which has so far killed over 3,000 people with over 90,000 infected. Instead, Disney will promote the Disney+ launch through social media and press notices. The company will also showcase the streaming service to select journalists during a demo in central London on Friday.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/disney-european-launch-axed-coronavirus-1202873059/

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

Bernie now out to 3.15-3.2. That's beginning to look a bit overdone, isn't it?

I've been of the view for some time that The Establishment would stop Bernie Sanders and for a little while that has meant that it would coalesce around Joe Biden. But I've just reversed my positions on the two because it's not that clear cut.

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

While it seems China's eventual reaction has done well, one downside they are struggling to find enough new cases to test the drugs under trial.

This is also positive...

A critical unknown is how many mild or asymptomatic cases occur. If large numbers of infections are below the radar, that complicates attempts to isolate infectious people and slow spread of the virus. But on the positive side, if the virus causes few, if any, symptoms in many infected people, the current estimated case fatality rate is too high.

Maybe they should try Iran.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

The House of Mouse is chicken.

Disney has been forced to scrap plans for a glitzy European press launch for Disney+ in London this week after the event became one of the latest industry gatherings to be hit by coronavirus fears.

Disney was hosting the party at the Exhibition London event space on March 5 to “celebrate the European launch of Disney+.” It was set to include “exclusive” presentations from key executives and creative heads, while a number of special guests were expected to attend.

However, the company has axed the event, which was expected to host hundreds of people, over fears of the global pandemic, which has so far killed over 3,000 people with over 90,000 infected. Instead, Disney will promote the Disney+ launch through social media and press notices. The company will also showcase the streaming service to select journalists during a demo in central London on Friday.

https://deadline.com/2020/03/disney-european-launch-axed-coronavirus-1202873059/

Surely the Baby Yoda could heal any of those struck down?

williamglenn

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Health Secretary live now in Parliament "the medical advice on shaking hands is the impact of shaking hands is negligible what really matters is washing hands, so our public health advice is clear and will remain based upon that science"

You are trusting the other person to have washed theirs though. Have just returned fro hospital where the doctor shook my hand twice,

More to the point, advising not to shake hands reinforces the message that hands transmit infection - which reinforces the wash hands advice.
Simple and consistent messages are most likely to be widely followed, and this one is important.

FWIW, there seems to be a working hypothesis that this thing is far more readily spread by physical contact than the airborne route.

Any medics care to comment ?

Not shaking hands can be like wearing non-disposable gloves, it gives a false sense of security and thus means people think falsely that they don't need to wash their hands.

It reinforces the idea that you can get it from touching things, so it has the opposite effect of the false sense of security from wearing gloves.

DavidL

eadric said:

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Nick it was never "double every day" !

Pulpstar said:

NickPalmer said:

MarqueeMark said:

UK hits 51 cases....

We don't seem to be doing that "double every day" thing - was 39 yesterday. Still contained, as far as I can see.

Nick it was never "double every day" !

It was double every other day. But we're not quite doing that either.

At the moment our infection graph looks a bit more like Taiwan than it does Germany or Korea.

It may just be because we're later to the party, OR we are genuinely containing this in some way.

I think we are doing well right now. Being an island obviously helps. I don't believe we can stop this but I do believe we can really slow it down and save lives doing so.

Philip_Thompson

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Health Secretary live now in Parliament "the medical advice on shaking hands is the impact of shaking hands is negligible what really matters is washing hands, so our public health advice is clear and will remain based upon that science"

You are trusting the other person to have washed theirs though. Have just returned fro hospital where the doctor shook my hand twice,

More to the point, advising not to shake hands reinforces the message that hands transmit infection - which reinforces the wash hands advice.
Simple and consistent messages are most likely to be widely followed, and this one is important.

FWIW, there seems to be a working hypothesis that this thing is far more readily spread by physical contact than the airborne route.

Any medics care to comment ?

Not shaking hands can be like wearing non-disposable gloves, it gives a false sense of security and thus means people think falsely that they don't need to wash their hands.

It reinforces the idea that you can get it from touching things, so it has the opposite effect of the false sense of security from wearing gloves.

The advice is not to not touch things though, you're not going to stop touching things, the advice is to wash your hands.

Again, I'm happy to stick with the official medical advice as offered by the Chief Medical Officer. If the advice changes (and it may) then so be it.

CarlottaVance

williamglenn said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Nigelb said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Health Secretary live now in Parliament "the medical advice on shaking hands is the impact of shaking hands is negligible what really matters is washing hands, so our public health advice is clear and will remain based upon that science"

You are trusting the other person to have washed theirs though. Have just returned fro hospital where the doctor shook my hand twice,

More to the point, advising not to shake hands reinforces the message that hands transmit infection - which reinforces the wash hands advice.
Simple and consistent messages are most likely to be widely followed, and this one is important.

FWIW, there seems to be a working hypothesis that this thing is far more readily spread by physical contact than the airborne route.

Any medics care to comment ?

Not shaking hands can be like wearing non-disposable gloves, it gives a false sense of security and thus means people think falsely that they don't need to wash their hands.

It reinforces the idea that you can get it from touching things, so it has the opposite effect of the false sense of security from wearing gloves.

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1234834369166049283?s=20

Sunil_Prasannan

TOPPING said:

OK team - what about the next PB meet up?

One is overdue isn't it?

TOPPING said:

OK team - what about the next PB meet up?

One is overdue isn't it?

May 2017 last time I think

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/DHSCgovuk/status/1234840995193348097?s=20
Marked slow down in rate of testing (under 400 vs ~1000-1500/day) - trend or blip?

DavidL

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/china-s-aggressive-measures-have-slowed-coronavirus-they-may-not-work-other-countries

While it seems China's eventual reaction has done well, one downside they are struggling to find enough new cases to test the drugs under trial.

This is also positive...

A critical unknown is how many mild or asymptomatic cases occur. If large numbers of infections are below the radar, that complicates attempts to isolate infectious people and slow spread of the virus. But on the positive side, if the virus causes few, if any, symptoms in many infected people, the current estimated case fatality rate is too high.

I thought that their most recent research indicated that they had not found this big pool of asymptomatic carriers when doing neighborhood checks. Which does suggest that the rate of those who get very sick/die is possibly a bit higher than we had been hoping.

squareroot2

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TOPPING said:

OK team - what about the next PB meet up?

One is overdue isn't it?

TOPPING said:

OK team - what about the next PB meet up?

One is overdue isn't it?

May 2017 last time I think

I think Coronavirus needs to be sorted first...

Richard_Nabavi

Philip_Thompson said:

The advice is not to not touch things though, you're not going to stop touching things, the advice is to wash your hands.

Again, I'm happy to stick with the official medical advice as offered by the Chief Medical Officer. If the advice changes (and it may) then so be it.

What might be behind this is that, rather counter-intuitively, viruses tend to survive longer on hard surfaces than they do on your hands or on tissues or clothing - on your hands, something like 5 to 15 minutes.