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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With both Bernie and Biden close to their 80s their VP choices

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  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FF43 said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:


    So... Bitcoin it is.

    That's even worse. It's a negative sum game where the amount you expect to get out is the amount you put in minus the amount spent on mining, which is currently like 25 million dollars per day or something. And it's all based on the assumption that if you buy it now, some generous person will want to hold your bag in the future. But if everything's going to hell, who's the rich chump who's going to volunteer to take over your Dunning-Krugerrands off your hands when you want to trade them in for beans?
    Isn't the amount of energy spent mining Bitcoin absurdly high and therefore very un-green?

    I don't see this as a crisis longer than this year. It is the nature of pandemics to burn themselves out over that timescale.

    Certainly it will get worse before it gets better in the UK and US, and a number of businesses are going to go under this year as a result, but stocks will be on their way to recovery in 12 months.
    It’s so weird. I don’t even though what “mining” is or why it’s necessary.

    I do know it’s completely contrived.
    Blockchain is useful because it solves the "double spend problem" without using a trusted intermediary. If I give you a five pound note, maybe in exchange for a bottle of wine, a physical piece of paper passes from me to you. I can't spend that £5 again because I no longer hold the paper note. However if I electronically send you a contract for that £5, I can make copies of that contract and send it multiple times to whoever I want. We need an intermediary that we trust to ensure the transaction happens and that you are £5 richer and I am £5 poorer. For cash transfers, the trusted intermediary is typically the banking system. Note Bitcoin is an implementation of blockchain, but blockchain can be used for many kinds of contract.

    Blockchain solves the copy problem by holding a single ledger of all transactions that have ever happened. This ledger is held in the public domain. Cryptography prevents others knowing the contents of the transaction, but as the ledger cannot be changed after the fact neither can that content be changed or duplicated. Miners are the guardians of the public ledger and are rewarded with a small commission.
    "without using a trusted intermediary"
    "Miners are the guardians of the public ledger"

    Bitcoin in a nutshell.

    Bitcoin was an attempt by people to try and become the middleman in financial transaction whilst simultaneously pretending they were trying to create a system without middlemen.
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    OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 32,115
    kinabalu said:

    You're fine. Kiwi oddly enough.

    Relief. I would not have liked to have had to stop ordering it. It's USPs are size, flavour and temperature. Not too big, not too small. Not too strong, not too weak. Not too hot, not too cold.

    Every other commercial coffee configuration in my experience is at least one of the above. It's either too big or too small or too strong or too weak or too hot or too cold. Very often I detect multiple faults - most commonly too hot AND too weak.
    I drink my coffee black, and I don't like very hot liquids. At places like Starbucks I ask them to put a lump or two of ice in it.
    I've then got a fighting chance of drinking my coffee within an hour or so.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    kinabalu said:

    You're fine. Kiwi oddly enough.

    Relief. I would not have liked to have had to stop ordering it. It's USPs are size, flavour and temperature. Not too big, not too small. Not too strong, not too weak. Not too hot, not too cold.

    Every other commercial coffee configuration in my experience is at least one of the above. It's either too big or too small or too strong or too weak or too hot or too cold. Very often I detect multiple faults - most commonly too hot AND too weak.
    I drink my coffee black, and I don't like very hot liquids. At places like Starbucks I ask them to put a lump or two of ice in it.
    I've then got a fighting chance of drinking my coffee within an hour or so.
    And then you get the psychos who ask for it extra hot!
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,210

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    You literally just gave elderly people entirely the wrong advice: keep calm and carry on, go out as normal.

    I told an older person on here to avoid social contact. You said this was fearmongering and the government was telling us all to lead totally normal lives.

    I then proved to you that the government was saying the exact opposite, to elderly people.

    Now you’re talking about sports for some reason. Whatever.
    Actually the governments advice even to the elderly is to keep calm and carry on but to take sensible precautions where possible.

    Which is what I was saying.

    The government is NOT saying to avoid social contact. The elderly avoiding having social contact with their loved ones like children, grandchildren or their friends etc is NOT the advice they're giving. They're saying at this stage to avoid crowds.

    Crowds != social contact.
    You can have social contact with elderly relatives on the phone without needing to do so in person
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    I have to say, going to a gig with 1000 people squeezed in a sweaty room doesn't seem like the best of ideas for anybody at the moment.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902

    NYT:

    Close to a Million in U.S. Could Be Tested for Coronavirus This Week

    How have they managed to ramp up their testing capacity so quickly?
    Well (1) The Trump administration is claiming the 1,000,000 figure

    and (2) by pulling in unreliable private labs and tests.

    In the briefing, which was conducted by phone, the officials said that only 337 additional C.D.C. test kits were made available for distribution on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to two people on the call and the person briefed on the discussion who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Each of those tests would cover about 350 people, officials said.

    The officials added that they hoped that a private manufacturer could step in and provide 2,500 more kits by the end of the week. A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services said that public health labs currently can test 15,000 people, and could test up to 75,000 by the end of the week, numbers that fall well short of what Dr. Hahn indicated private labs could handle.

    Basically the 1,000,000 figure is a complete lie.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited March 2020
    This kind of headline really doesn't help...I think it is massively irresponsible.

    Troops on the streets, police ignoring low-level crime, makeshift morgues and patients turfed out of hospitals:

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8068615/Boris-Johnson-gathers-Cabinet-sign-coronavirus-battle-plan.html
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,532

    NYT:

    Close to a Million in U.S. Could Be Tested for Coronavirus This Week

    How have they managed to ramp up their testing capacity so quickly?
    Private companies and academic laboratories have been pulled in to develop and validate their own coronavirus tests, a move to get around a government bottleneck after a halting start,
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,429
    eadric said:

    Self immolate is a bit drastic.

    Self immolate at home and when out and about keep your hands away from your faeces.

    That's what I read. But my eyes are going.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,826

    NYT:

    Close to a Million in U.S. Could Be Tested for Coronavirus This Week

    Got a link? Couldn't find that on twitter....
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    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,157

    NYT:

    Close to a Million in U.S. Could Be Tested for Coronavirus This Week

    Got a link? Couldn't find that on twitter....
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/close-to-a-million-could-be-tested-for-the-coronavirus-this-week-health-official-says/ar-BB10Elgm?li=BBnb7Kz
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Friend zone: where in Europe can you find Guardian readers?

    https://www.theguardian.com/membership/2020/mar/03/europe-where-find-guardian-readers-map

    Friend...thumbs up friend....
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,429

    I drink my coffee black, and I don't like very hot liquids. At places like Starbucks I ask them to put a lump or two of ice in it.
    I've then got a fighting chance of drinking my coffee within an hour or so.

    Yes, nothing worse than coffee being served up at Mount Etna temperature. It's dangerous (if spilled) and as you say it takes an eternity to deal with, traps you in there for longer than is comfortable.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,523
    Chameleon said:

    NYT:

    Close to a Million in U.S. Could Be Tested for Coronavirus This Week

    How have they managed to ramp up their testing capacity so quickly?
    Well (1) The Trump administration is claiming the 1,000,000 figure

    and (2) by pulling in unreliable private labs and tests.

    In the briefing, which was conducted by phone, the officials said that only 337 additional C.D.C. test kits were made available for distribution on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to two people on the call and the person briefed on the discussion who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Each of those tests would cover about 350 people, officials said.

    The officials added that they hoped that a private manufacturer could step in and provide 2,500 more kits by the end of the week. A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services said that public health labs currently can test 15,000 people, and could test up to 75,000 by the end of the week, numbers that fall well short of what Dr. Hahn indicated private labs could handle.

    Basically the 1,000,000 figure is a complete lie.
    I heard of this company called Theranos, that's very good at blood tests. Their stock will be one to watch! :wink:
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,210
    Greggs to pay all staff who need to self isolate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51718074
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    eadric said:

    kinabalu said:

    You do need to understand the vast majority of people over 80 are fully aware of sensible precautions in health crisis, having lived through other previous scares

    Indeed, they probably have a better idea than you on how to keep themselves safe

    And dying like flies, really.

    From what I gather the main thing is to self-immolate and only then if you get symptoms.
    Self immolate is a bit drastic.
    Very effective though.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Selebian said:

    Chameleon said:

    NYT:

    Close to a Million in U.S. Could Be Tested for Coronavirus This Week

    How have they managed to ramp up their testing capacity so quickly?
    Well (1) The Trump administration is claiming the 1,000,000 figure

    and (2) by pulling in unreliable private labs and tests.

    In the briefing, which was conducted by phone, the officials said that only 337 additional C.D.C. test kits were made available for distribution on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to two people on the call and the person briefed on the discussion who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Each of those tests would cover about 350 people, officials said.

    The officials added that they hoped that a private manufacturer could step in and provide 2,500 more kits by the end of the week. A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services said that public health labs currently can test 15,000 people, and could test up to 75,000 by the end of the week, numbers that fall well short of what Dr. Hahn indicated private labs could handle.

    Basically the 1,000,000 figure is a complete lie.
    I heard of this company called Theranos, that's very good at blood tests. Their stock will be one to watch! :wink:
    The documentary on Theranos is well worth a watch. All these very wealthy, very smart, very well connected falling for wizard of oz stuff.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Somebody is going to have some awkward conversions for the rest of the day.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Biden now down to 1.91-1.99
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    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Without getting too tedious and boring, the US has far stricter regulations for tests and diagnostics than the EU. Most of the time that is a sensible idea. But in times of crisis and if the official approved test turns out to be junk, then that is a severe problem. By contrast the UK has more of a devolved system, with each lab likely to be doing slightly different versions of the same test. If one Lab has messed up then it is not quite so important because they can learn from the others.

    Thrown into the mix is the fact that, by the sounds of it, the federal agencies including the CDC have been gutted by Trump. Moreover, he has created a culture where this virus is just like flu and nothing to worry about. Implicitly that will filter through the country and the right results will be found - initially. Not so different to the Chinese then after all.
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    Friend zone: where in Europe can you find Guardian readers?

    Oooh, me, me, ask me!


    The answer is Twitter.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,024
    Bit annoyed at Biden's price falling, but if he does get the gig then the 36 (again, a Mr. NigelB tip) I've got on him for the presidency becomes eminently hedgeable.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,047

    Without getting too tedious and boring, the US has far stricter regulations for tests and diagnostics than the EU. Most of the time that is a sensible idea. But in times of crisis and if the official approved test turns out to be junk, then that is a severe problem. By contrast the UK has more of a devolved system, with each lab likely to be doing slightly different versions of the same test. If one Lab has messed up then it is not quite so important because they can learn from the others.

    Thrown into the mix is the fact that, by the sounds of it, the federal agencies including the CDC have been gutted by Trump. Moreover, he has created a culture where this virus is just like flu and nothing to worry about. Implicitly that will filter through the country and the right results will be found - initially. Not so different to the Chinese then after all.

    I thought Trump said it was all a Democrat hoax.

    Apologies for being facetious and appreciate your explanation.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,047

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,673
    edited March 2020

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    That’s what my father and his medical professional friends said.

    Put the country in quarantine for two months.

    Anyone who flies in gets put in a government secure site.
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,523

    Nigelb said:

    English mustard. Not Dijon poopoo or American ooze. Proper Colmans's full-punch English.

    No English breakfast is feasible without it.

    :D

    Actually Anglo/Dutch mustard, these days.
    The condiment that Tesco calls "English mustard" in England it labels as "Mustard" in Scotland. In a cafe at a major Scottish tourist attraction I've also seen Twining's "English Breakfast" Tea (a blend of Assam, Ceylon and Kenyan) described on a blackboard as "Breakfast" tea. "Not having that Westminster muck here! Oh wait, if we can call it by a different name and sell it..."
    Yes, it's not great. RSPB is called SSPB up here. God forbid any English birds be protected using Scottish donations.
    My parents in law have discovered that Scottish and English National Trusts have reciprocal agreements (if indeed they are separate entities) that allow entry to each other's properties on the same terms as their own. Scottish National Trust membership is cheaper. They live in Yorkshire and have no ties to Scotland, but are happy members of the Scottish National Trust.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,011
    Chameleon said:

    NYT:

    Close to a Million in U.S. Could Be Tested for Coronavirus This Week

    How have they managed to ramp up their testing capacity so quickly?
    Well (1) The Trump administration is claiming the 1,000,000 figure

    and (2) by pulling in unreliable private labs and tests.

    In the briefing, which was conducted by phone, the officials said that only 337 additional C.D.C. test kits were made available for distribution on Tuesday and Wednesday, according to two people on the call and the person briefed on the discussion who were not authorized to discuss it publicly. Each of those tests would cover about 350 people, officials said.

    The officials added that they hoped that a private manufacturer could step in and provide 2,500 more kits by the end of the week. A spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services said that public health labs currently can test 15,000 people, and could test up to 75,000 by the end of the week, numbers that fall well short of what Dr. Hahn indicated private labs could handle.

    Basically the 1,000,000 figure is a complete lie.
    Trump maths.
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    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    HMG is beginning to come clean with the voters.

    https://twitter.com/bbcbreaking/status/1234791029490036737?s=21

    The phrase “off sick” is doing a lot of work there. It doesn’t specify that half of those “off sick” will likely need a hospital bed. Millions of people.

    No it doesn't specify that half of those "off sick" will be throwing a sickie because yesterday some of their colleagues were off sick and they don't feel like doing extra work for the same pay while others take time off.
    Read the comments underneath. Amazing. People just don’t believe it, because they don’t want to believe it. They think this is absurd hyperbole (as do some on here)

    This is probably the greatest expression of Normalcy Bias in history. The theory says that 70% of people exhibit the Bias in some form, generally the less intelligent, who think more slowly.

    70% looks about right. .
    As someone in the high risk category I accept the risk but your general hyperbole does not assist in making sensible and rational decisions
    I have loved ones in very high risk categories who will likely die if they get it.
    Given the highest reported mortality rate among the 80+ is 15%, aren't they very much more likely (85%) to survive?
    Is it not about 15% as standard at that age anyway
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    That’s what my father and his medical professional friends said.

    Put the country in quarantine for two months.

    Anyone who flies in gets put in a government secure site.
    If we started putting arrivals in secure sites, I can only imagine the outrage from the Guardian and the likes of Diane Abbott...its profiling...its racist...targeting foreigners.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187

    Nigelb said:

    English mustard. Not Dijon poopoo or American ooze. Proper Colmans's full-punch English.

    No English breakfast is feasible without it.

    :D

    Actually Anglo/Dutch mustard, these days.
    The condiment that Tesco calls "English mustard" in England it labels as "Mustard" in Scotland. In a cafe at a major Scottish tourist attraction I've also seen Twining's "English Breakfast" Tea (a blend of Assam, Ceylon and Kenyan) described on a blackboard as "Breakfast" tea. "Not having that Westminster muck here! Oh wait, if we can call it by a different name and sell it..."
    Yes, it's not great. RSPB is called SSPB up here. God forbid any English birds be protected using Scottish donations.
    Meanwhile most Scottish produce is being relabeled British, what a bunch of absolute tossers you English Nationalists are.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,673
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    You literally just gave elderly people entirely the wrong advice: keep calm and carry on, go out as normal.

    I told an older person on here to avoid social contact. You said this was fearmongering and the government was telling us all to lead totally normal lives.

    I then proved to you that the government was saying the exact opposite, to elderly people.

    Now you’re talking about sports for some reason. Whatever.
    Actually the governments advice even to the elderly is to keep calm and carry on but to take sensible precautions where possible.

    Which is what I was saying.

    The government is NOT saying to avoid social contact. The elderly avoiding having social contact with their loved ones like children, grandchildren or their friends etc is NOT the advice they're giving. They're saying at this stage to avoid crowds.

    Crowds != social contact.
    You can have social contact with elderly relatives on the phone without needing to do so in person

    Yes, the best thing you can do for vulnerable people is call, Facetime, Skype

    Remember this research from China. 83% of clustered coronavirus transmission is WITHIN families.

    https://twitter.com/chinadaily/status/1227208159422447616?s=21


    Welding families into their flats might play its part.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,429
    The Hopkins dashboard has 91,313 cases, globally.

    Same as this morning.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited March 2020
    Here is the new narrative...nobody really wanted Boris. Its like Brexit false narrative, nobody really knew what they were doing.

    Did voters really 'hold their nose' at the general election?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjYAG4DzFQk
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,469

    Nigelb said:

    English mustard. Not Dijon poopoo or American ooze. Proper Colmans's full-punch English.

    No English breakfast is feasible without it.

    :D

    Actually Anglo/Dutch mustard, these days.
    The condiment that Tesco calls "English mustard" in England it labels as "Mustard" in Scotland. In a cafe at a major Scottish tourist attraction I've also seen Twining's "English Breakfast" Tea (a blend of Assam, Ceylon and Kenyan) described on a blackboard as "Breakfast" tea. "Not having that Westminster muck here! Oh wait, if we can call it by a different name and sell it..."
    Yes, it's not great. RSPB is called SSPB up here. God forbid any English birds be protected using Scottish donations.
    No it isn't. I think you have mixed up RSPB with RSPCA. RSPCA equivalent is SSPCA. Big difference between the two.
    RSPB is science-based conservation charity with 200+ nature reserves. In Scotland just called RSPB Scotland.
    RSPCA is much smaller animal-welfare charity which operates south of border..
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On some of the measures proposed for Covid-19: sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.
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    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,391
    HYUFD said:

    Greggs to pay all staff who need to self isolate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51718074

    They can afford it after their profits just declared...
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    You literally just gave elderly people entirely the wrong advice: keep calm and carry on, go out as normal.

    I told an older person on here to avoid social contact. You said this was fearmongering and the government was telling us all to lead totally normal lives.

    I then proved to you that the government was saying the exact opposite, to elderly people.

    Now you’re talking about sports for some reason. Whatever.
    Actually the governments advice even to the elderly is to keep calm and carry on but to take sensible precautions where possible.

    Which is what I was saying.

    The government is NOT saying to avoid social contact. The elderly avoiding having social contact with their loved ones like children, grandchildren or their friends etc is NOT the advice they're giving. They're saying at this stage to avoid crowds.

    Crowds != social contact.
    You can have social contact with elderly relatives on the phone without needing to do so in person

    Yes, the best thing you can do for vulnerable people is call, Facetime, Skype

    Remember this research from China. 83% of clustered coronavirus transmission is WITHIN families.

    https://twitter.com/chinadaily/status/1227208159422447616?s=21


    Welding families into their flats might play its part.
    I would suggest that the very high density housing and living arrangements that are normal in Chinese cities certainly doesn't help.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187

    Mr. G, you don't need a watch to know the sun's rising :p

    MD, If you are snoring away , your watch(er) could give you a shake and tell you it is up.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    HYUFD said:

    Greggs to pay all staff who need to self isolate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51718074

    They can afford it after their profits just declared...
    All them Vegan sausage rolls...
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    The Chief Science Officer was asked this question and he said quite clearly no.

    The reason was he said such a policy would be ineffective now (because its not necessary versus the amount of societal damage it would cause now) but that if the time came such a policy was necessary then saying so then would be less effective as by then people would have stopped listening to the advice and so crowds would be getting bigger again when you want them to be smaller.

    We can only realistically avoid crowds for so long so it is important to time that to maximum effect when the science calls for it and not prematurely.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Surely must be about time for the UK daily updated figures, no?
  • Options
    squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,391
    kinabalu said:

    I drink my coffee black, and I don't like very hot liquids. At places like Starbucks I ask them to put a lump or two of ice in it.
    I've then got a fighting chance of drinking my coffee within an hour or so.

    Yes, nothing worse than coffee being served up at Mount Etna temperature. It's dangerous (if spilled) and as you say it takes an eternity to deal with, traps you in there for longer than is comfortable.
    Starbucks coffee.. how can uou drink it. Urrrrrgh..all of tgem are pretty naff but Smallbatch coffee based in Sussex is ok imho
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,523

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    That’s what my father and his medical professional friends said.

    Put the country in quarantine for two months.

    Anyone who flies in gets put in a government secure site.
    That last at least has some logic - at present the vast majority of cases are people catching the virus elsewhere.

    As for the RAH event - it's vanishingly likely (at present, depends on events between now and then if there's amassive increase in cases) that anyone attending the concert is infected, so cancelling serves no purpose. If someone attending is infected, they might infect as many people popping out to do the shopping or going down the pub if the event is cancelled.

    If/when we get to a point where there are a lot of infected people, then reducing contact between people becomes useful. Up until then, not so much.
  • Options
    eristdooferistdoof Posts: 4,914
    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    My impression from this press conference is that the government and their advisors do seem to be on top of this at this time

    The planning must have been going on for some weeks behind the scenes

    My anecdotal impression is that the UK is better placed than most other countries, when facing an epidemic, due to it's centralised health care system and a high standard of co-ordinated medical research.

    If the UK deals with this much better than the US, it could well help the eventual Democrat candidate in WH2020.
    I don't see how Boris having a good coranivurus outbreak will help Democrats, he is closer to Trump if anything.

    It may well be the US copies UK quarantine and testing but not much more
    While I agree with you that Johnson is like Trump, I really doubt anyone arguing for reform of the US health system in the direction of the NHS is going to claim that the British system is better thanks to Johnson or his Trump-like qualities.

    I suspect that if things are a lot worse here in Germany than in the UK, people will be asking for more national coordination (which is really needed, the response so far has been disappointing). And Merkel's only contribution so far has been getting her offered handshake refused by the interior minister...
    There is no coordination in health in Gerany. Last week a doctor in North Rhine, where the biggest outbreak is, wanted to get information as to how to proceede, because a patient was presenting with symptoms. The only options available to a GP were the same sources general information for the public, including a phone line which is continually busy. One anecdote, I have heard several similar ones in the last few days.

    I hear reports from hospitals, we have n-beds available for isolation, but then hear that over three quarters of these are currently in use by other patients.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Forget coronavirus.

    Today's most important news is that DisneyPlus will include the Simpsons and be available on Sky Q. I'll be very glad when our DisneyLife subscription becomes a DisneyPlus one.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302

    Forget coronavirus.

    Today's most important news is that DisneyPlus will include the Simpsons and be available on Sky Q. I'll be very glad when our DisneyLife subscription becomes a DisneyPlus one.

    And don't forget Baby Yoda....
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,429

    Starbucks coffee.. how can uou drink it. Urrrrrgh..all of tgem are pretty naff but Smallbatch coffee based in Sussex is ok imho

    Do not like Starbucks. Not so much the coffee as the ambience. I frequent Cafe Nero. Least in there you can pretend you're in a proper cafe.
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,469

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    "I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday"

    SNAP. Though not at the RAH. Wonder if there is a correlation between PB interest and Roxy appreciation?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Biden's odds still falling - now 1.86-1.87
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kinabalu said:

    Starbucks coffee.. how can uou drink it. Urrrrrgh..all of tgem are pretty naff but Smallbatch coffee based in Sussex is ok imho

    Do not like Starbucks. Not so much the coffee as the ambience. I frequent Cafe Nero. Least in there you can pretend you're in a proper cafe.
    In the same way that Hilton hotels are the worst hotels in the best locations, Starbucks serve the worst coffee in the most comfortable surroundings.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187

    HYUFD said:

    Greggs to pay all staff who need to self isolate

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51718074

    They can afford it after their profits just declared...
    All them Vegan sausage rolls...
    Finally vegans have been of some benefit
  • Options
    GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited March 2020

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    You might have seen this figure before? If not, no worries. Someone else won't have. In short, St Louis locked down early whereas Philadelphia didn't. Locking down involves: stopping mass gatherings, closing schools etc.

    There is an overall trend for a flatter pandemic curve for those who did lock down early versus those who did not. A flatter pandemic curve allows healthcare resources to be spread out over time and reduces (but does not prevent) the crush.

    The paper is called: Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic.

    It is behind a paywall but happy to send it if you want to read it.

    I believe PHE will have modelled this. The main reason, I believe, they are not just locking down schools now is the impact of stopping NHS workers from working but also that lockdown is going to need to be for a long-time. At least 2-months. Hence it will be worth deferring that to when things go beyond our 'isolation' phase and get very serious. I haven no doubt that it will be a thing in due course.


  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,187

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    "I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday"

    SNAP. Though not at the RAH. Wonder if there is a correlation between PB interest and Roxy appreciation?
    Last saw him live in early 70's
  • Options
    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Sandpit said:

    Foss said:

    Foss said:

    tlg86 said:

    @HYUFD - The bigger story there is that the local elections may be delayed.

    The Beeb have a story about Labour expecting a thrashing at the locals. They may be glad of a delay and a chance for a change of narrative.
    Expectation management?
    "In a worst-case scenario, Labour risks losing 315 seats and control of historic strongholds such as Sheffield."

    "The document suggests that the situation could be even worse as the party's polling hasn't taken into account the recent Conservative poll "bounce" but it adds that it can not yet estimate the effect of a change of leadership on the election results. "

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51709639
    Sounds very much like expectations management. Assuming KS wins the leadership race, he's going to have a honeymoon bump in the polls as people think a lot more of him than they do of the previous leader. Most of the seats up in May were last contested in 2017, at the height of Theresa May's popularity just before the general election.
    Most were surely last fought in 2016 - ie before the Referendum.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,011
    edited March 2020
    The director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in also in his late 70s:
    https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/03/anthony-fauci-trump-coronavirus-crisis-118961
    And has the most elegant way of calling the president a liar...
    “ You should never destroy your own credibility. And you don't want to go to war with a president,” Fauci, who has been the country’s top infectious diseases expert through a dozen outbreaks and six presidents, told POLITICO in an interview Friday. “But you got to walk the fine balance of making sure you continue to tell the truth.”...
  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,737

    Here is the new narrative...nobody really wanted Boris. Its like Brexit false narrative, nobody really knew what they were doing.

    Did voters really 'hold their nose' at the general election?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjYAG4DzFQk

    Yes
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187

    Forget coronavirus.

    Today's most important news is that DisneyPlus will include the Simpsons and be available on Sky Q. I'll be very glad when our DisneyLife subscription becomes a DisneyPlus one.

    Available in time for quarantine watching?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021

    Forget coronavirus.

    Today's most important news is that DisneyPlus will include the Simpsons and be available on Sky Q. I'll be very glad when our DisneyLife subscription becomes a DisneyPlus one.

    Available in time for quarantine watching?
    I assume the Q in Sky Q is for quarantine?
  • Options
    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,024
    Mr. G, you don't get woken by the sunrise?

    It must be said I'm a very light sleeper.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023
    edited March 2020

    Biden's odds still falling - now 1.86-1.87

    If Swayable is correct, and that's a colossal "if" here is the delegate count after Super Tuesday

    561 Bernie Sanders
    530 Joe Biden
    335 Michael Bloomberg
    30 Amy Klobuchar
    26 Pete Buttigieg
    11 Elizabeth Warren

    They probably aren't correct - but it illustrates the issue Sanders may have if Warren isn't viable in states and yet she's denying Sanders voters.
    Biden's Bloomberg residue doesn't matter so much because Bloomberg picks up proportional delegates that he can give Sleepy Joe at the convention.

    Overly simplified but there'll be some Bloomberg-Sanders and some Warren-Biden people out there despite how daft that seems.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187
    Selebian said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    That’s what my father and his medical professional friends said.

    Put the country in quarantine for two months.

    Anyone who flies in gets put in a government secure site.
    That last at least has some logic - at present the vast majority of cases are people catching the virus elsewhere.

    As for the RAH event - it's vanishingly likely (at present, depends on events between now and then if there's amassive increase in cases) that anyone attending the concert is infected, so cancelling serves no purpose. If someone attending is infected, they might infect as many people popping out to do the shopping or going down the pub if the event is cancelled.

    If/when we get to a point where there are a lot of infected people, then reducing contact between people becomes useful. Up until then, not so much.
    Should that be "vanishingly UNlikely"?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Here is the new narrative...nobody really wanted Boris. Its like Brexit false narrative, nobody really knew what they were doing.

    Did voters really 'hold their nose' at the general election?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjYAG4DzFQk

    QTWAIN
  • Options
    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,469
    malcolmg said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    "I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday"

    SNAP. Though not at the RAH. Wonder if there is a correlation between PB interest and Roxy appreciation?
    Last saw him live in early 70's
    Still going strong at 74. One of the country's great songwriters and a particularly gifted lyricist, but rather underappreciated for some reason. Everyone just focuses on the tuxedos and super-models...
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187

    malcolmg said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    "I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday"

    SNAP. Though not at the RAH. Wonder if there is a correlation between PB interest and Roxy appreciation?
    Last saw him live in early 70's
    Still going strong at 74. One of the country's great songwriters and a particularly gifted lyricist, but rather underappreciated for some reason. Everyone just focuses on the tuxedos and super-models...
    He'll soon be old enough to consider a career in politics.....
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,047
    malcolmg said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    "I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday"

    SNAP. Though not at the RAH. Wonder if there is a correlation between PB interest and Roxy appreciation?
    Last saw him live in early 70's
    I was due to see him at Nottingham in 2012 when he was touring with the original Roxy band (minus Mr Eno of course). I ended up stuck offshore so couldn't go and then had to endure my wife and friends telling me about all the great old Roxy tracks they played.

    This year will be a good one for me for oldies if it all goes as planned.

    In June I am seeing Roger Hogson of Supertramp fame
    In July George Thorogood and the Destroyers
    In October The Black Crows.

    Hopefully with a few more thrown in as well. As long as we are not all in self isolation of course.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    Pulpstar said:

    Biden's odds still falling - now 1.86-1.87

    If Swayable is correct, and that's a colossal "if" here is the delegate count after Super Tuesday

    561 Bernie Sanders
    530 Joe Biden
    335 Michael Bloomberg
    30 Amy Klobuchar
    26 Pete Buttigieg
    11 Elizabeth Warren
    I'd be surprised if Bloomberg does as well as that, or Warren as badly.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,532

    Biden's odds still falling - now 1.86-1.87

    Oh happy days.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,023

    Pulpstar said:

    Biden's odds still falling - now 1.86-1.87

    If Swayable is correct, and that's a colossal "if" here is the delegate count after Super Tuesday

    561 Bernie Sanders
    530 Joe Biden
    335 Michael Bloomberg
    30 Amy Klobuchar
    26 Pete Buttigieg
    11 Elizabeth Warren
    I'd be surprised if Bloomberg does as well as that, or Warren as badly.
    So would I !
    All sorts of weird potential dynamics with viability though.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,474

    kinabalu said:

    Starbucks coffee.. how can uou drink it. Urrrrrgh..all of tgem are pretty naff but Smallbatch coffee based in Sussex is ok imho

    Do not like Starbucks. Not so much the coffee as the ambience. I frequent Cafe Nero. Least in there you can pretend you're in a proper cafe.
    In the same way that Hilton hotels are the worst hotels in the best locations, Starbucks serve the worst coffee in the most comfortable surroundings.
    Many years ago (20-ish) I was at Whistler and thought I was the very epitome of sophisticated living straight off the set of Friends because they had and I went to a glitzy coffee shop I'd only heard vaguely about called "Starbucks" there.
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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 31,047

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    You might have seen this figure before? If not, no worries. Someone else won't have. In short, St Louis locked down early whereas Philadelphia didn't. Locking down involves: stopping mass gatherings, closing schools etc.

    There is an overall trend for a flatter pandemic curve for those who did lock down early versus those who did not. A flatter pandemic curve allows healthcare resources to be spread out over time and reduces (but does not prevent) the crush.

    The paper is called: Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic.

    It is behind a paywall but happy to send it if you want to read it.

    I believe PHE will have modelled this. The main reason, I believe, they are not just locking down schools now is the impact of stopping NHS workers from working but also that lockdown is going to need to be for a long-time. At least 2-months. Hence it will be worth deferring that to when things go beyond our 'isolation' phase and get very serious. I haven no doubt that it will be a thing in due course.


    Cheers that is really useful and interesting.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,070

    Here is the new narrative...nobody really wanted Boris. Its like Brexit false narrative, nobody really knew what they were doing.

    Did voters really 'hold their nose' at the general election?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjYAG4DzFQk

    QTWAIN
    You missed a T there it's QTWTAIN but if 1 in 3 voted tactically while people may not have wanted Boris they really didn't want Corbyn...

    As it is I didn't want Boris and voted labour but I know I'm very much in the minority there, a lot of voters went the other way.

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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    kinabalu said:

    What is the opposite of Normalcy Bias?

    Headless chicken?
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    BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,469

    malcolmg said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    It is what is happening in various other countries - France has banned all gatherings over 5000 people.
    Indeed because the virus is in the wild there. It isn't yet here. The government has said they'll take actions like that as and when it is scientifically necessary and advisable not prematurely - that makes sense.
    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.
    "I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday"

    SNAP. Though not at the RAH. Wonder if there is a correlation between PB interest and Roxy appreciation?
    Last saw him live in early 70's
    Still going strong at 74. One of the country's great songwriters and a particularly gifted lyricist, but rather underappreciated for some reason. Everyone just focuses on the tuxedos and super-models...
    He'll soon be old enough to consider a career in politics.....
    He'd win by a landslide. All they would have to do is play the "Let''s Stick Together" video (the one with Jerry Hall).
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    NEW THREAD

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,011



    A serious question from a position of relative ignorance.

    Wouldn't it be better to temporarily stop large gatherings and so try to prevent it getting into the wild in the first place?

    I have a vested and very selfish interest. I am due to see Bryan Ferry at the RAH a week on Friday. If they cancel the concert they will reschedule it. If they don't then I have to decide whether to go or not.

    You might have seen this figure before? If not, no worries. Someone else won't have. In short, St Louis locked down early whereas Philadelphia didn't. Locking down involves: stopping mass gatherings, closing schools etc.

    There is an overall trend for a flatter pandemic curve for those who did lock down early versus those who did not. A flatter pandemic curve allows healthcare resources to be spread out over time and reduces (but does not prevent) the crush.

    The paper is called: Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic.

    It is behind a paywall but happy to send it if you want to read it.

    I believe PHE will have modelled this. The main reason, I believe, they are not just locking down schools now is the impact of stopping NHS workers from working but also that lockdown is going to need to be for a long-time. At least 2-months. Hence it will be worth deferring that to when things go beyond our 'isolation' phase and get very serious. I haven no doubt that it will be a thing in due course.


    Philadelphia was something of an edge case, though.

    https://www.inquirer.com/philly/health/more-than-12000-philadelphians-died-in-the-flu-pandemic-of-1918-my-aunt-was-one-of-them-20180125.html
    In fact, historians say Philadelphia's flu death toll was especially high because of another official effort to downplay the danger.
    On Sept. 7, 1918, a ship from Boston landed at the Philadelphia Navy Yard, and 300 sailors disembarked. Less than two weeks later, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported 600 sailors had been hospitalized with the flu, but none had died.
    Worried physicians urged a quarantine to stop the spread of the flu. But the nation was at war, and the city was planning a Liberty Loan parade for late September that, it was hoped, would help the city accelerate war-bond sales.
    Wilmer Krusen, director of the Department of Public Health and Charities, allowed the parade to go on as planned. Around 200,000 people lined the two-mile parade route on Sept. 28, enjoying the military bands and civilian displays of patriotism.

    Within three days, 117 civilians had died of flu....
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    eadric said:

    No. The government’s advice to people in high risk groups is not “keep calm and carry on”

    They are ALREADY saying to these people, eg the elderly, avoid social contact, do not use public transport, etc.

    “People aged over 60 are being advised to avoid crowded areas and public transport to prevent infection.“

    https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/government-coronavirus-battle-plan-urges-over-60s-to-avoid-crowds/

    Given that some on this site are over 80, they should take that seriously.

    You’d have them going to parties and dying like flies.


    No I'd have at-risk groups taking extra precautions but then I always would. At risk groups should know they're at risk and take extra precautions at all times.

    You've been spouting bullshit like shutting down sporting events, cancelling the Premier League season etc - that's the nonsense I'm mocking.
    You literally just gave elderly people entirely the wrong advice: keep calm and carry on, go out as normal.

    I told an older person on here to avoid social contact. You said this was fearmongering and the government was telling us all to lead totally normal lives.

    I then proved to you that the government was saying the exact opposite, to elderly people.

    Now you’re talking about sports for some reason. Whatever.
    Actually the governments advice even to the elderly is to keep calm and carry on but to take sensible precautions where possible.

    Which is what I was saying.

    The government is NOT saying to avoid social contact. The elderly avoiding having social contact with their loved ones like children, grandchildren or their friends etc is NOT the advice they're giving. They're saying at this stage to avoid crowds.

    Crowds != social contact.
    You can have social contact with elderly relatives on the phone without needing to do so in person

    Yes, the best thing you can do for vulnerable people is call, Facetime, Skype

    Remember this research from China. 83% of clustered coronavirus transmission is WITHIN families.

    https://twitter.com/chinadaily/status/1227208159422447616?s=21


    Yes that's what happens when you lock people in their homes.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,802
    moonshine said:

    TOPPING said:

    One thing that I find genuinely worrying is the prevalence of those on here who seem to prefer brown to red sauce.

    Not that you would approve. But I have an excellent recipe for brown sauce that is so good you never want anything else. It’s in a book by Kylee Newton, that also has loads of good chutney and jam recipes.
    Warm Stilton tarts with pear chutney - snack of the gods!
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,336
    eristdoof said:

    kamski said:

    HYUFD said:

    eristdoof said:

    My impression from this press conference is that the government and their advisors do seem to be on top of this at this time

    The planning must have been going on for some weeks behind the scenes

    My anecdotal impression is that the UK is better placed than most other countries, when facing an epidemic, due to it's centralised health care system and a high standard of co-ordinated medical research.

    If the UK deals with this much better than the US, it could well help the eventual Democrat candidate in WH2020.
    I don't see how Boris having a good coranivurus outbreak will help Democrats, he is closer to Trump if anything.

    It may well be the US copies UK quarantine and testing but not much more
    While I agree with you that Johnson is like Trump, I really doubt anyone arguing for reform of the US health system in the direction of the NHS is going to claim that the British system is better thanks to Johnson or his Trump-like qualities.

    I suspect that if things are a lot worse here in Germany than in the UK, people will be asking for more national coordination (which is really needed, the response so far has been disappointing). And Merkel's only contribution so far has been getting her offered handshake refused by the interior minister...
    There is no coordination in health in Gerany. Last week a doctor in North Rhine, where the biggest outbreak is, wanted to get information as to how to proceede, because a patient was presenting with symptoms. The only options available to a GP were the same sources general information for the public, including a phone line which is continually busy. One anecdote, I have heard several similar ones in the last few days.

    I hear reports from hospitals, we have n-beds available for isolation, but then hear that over three quarters of these are currently in use by other patients.
    My wife is an Oberärztin in a Notaufnahme in Düsseldorf. Things are a mess. The Robert Koch Institut is supposed to provide national guidelines but they don't seem to be on the ball at all.
This discussion has been closed.