First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
No, but sometimes it seems like american politics exists to make ours (mostly) look better.
Our politics is better. It's not just the leaders and parties, which I think are better, it's things like the neutrality of government departments, independent judiciary, a press that is on the whole more willing to challenge the executive, and our parties seem to be broader. I think we also do a lot better with things like elections, seat boundaries, and voter registration.
We're not perfect, but I really can't think of any aspect of US politics that we should copy.
The First Amendment
Actually, the whole Constitution is pretty impressive.
So the moderates are left with a candidate who has been round this loop repeatedly and confuses everyone including himself. It’s Bidenception.
Feel free to have a crack at setting out what Biden would do as President. Other than nap and suck Werthers Originals
NOT BE TRUMP!!
Restoration of the American Republic before it is too late.
Biden has repeatedly focused on Trump, what's wrong with Trump, the threat to democracy etc etc. He's stayed above to a degree the arguments about wealth tax, i have a plan for that health plan etc.
No, but sometimes it seems like american politics exists to make ours (mostly) look better.
Our politics is better. It's not just the leaders and parties, which I think are better, it's things like the neutrality of government departments, independent judiciary, a press that is on the whole more willing to challenge the executive, and our parties seem to be broader. I think we also do a lot better with things like elections, seat boundaries, and voter registration.
We're not perfect, but I really can't think of any aspect of US politics that we should copy.
The First Amendment
Actually, the whole Constitution is pretty impressive.
All the compromises to accommodate slavery are pretty rank.
No, but sometimes it seems like american politics exists to make ours (mostly) look better.
Our politics is better. It's not just the leaders and parties, which I think are better, it's things like the neutrality of government departments, independent judiciary, a press that is on the whole more willing to challenge the executive, and our parties seem to be broader. I think we also do a lot better with things like elections, seat boundaries, and voter registration.
We're not perfect, but I really can't think of any aspect of US politics that we should copy.
The First Amendment
Actually, the whole Constitution is pretty impressive.
All the compromises to accommodate slavery are pretty rank.
In 1783 we were pretty active in that hypocrisy too.
No, but sometimes it seems like american politics exists to make ours (mostly) look better.
Our politics is better. It's not just the leaders and parties, which I think are better, it's things like the neutrality of government departments, independent judiciary, a press that is on the whole more willing to challenge the executive, and our parties seem to be broader. I think we also do a lot better with things like elections, seat boundaries, and voter registration.
We're not perfect, but I really can't think of any aspect of US politics that we should copy.
The First Amendment
Actually, the whole Constitution is pretty impressive.
Yes it is. But that’s one bit I’d really like to have over here.
No, but sometimes it seems like american politics exists to make ours (mostly) look better.
Our politics is better. It's not just the leaders and parties, which I think are better, it's things like the neutrality of government departments, independent judiciary, a press that is on the whole more willing to challenge the executive, and our parties seem to be broader. I think we also do a lot better with things like elections, seat boundaries, and voter registration.
We're not perfect, but I really can't think of any aspect of US politics that we should copy.
The First Amendment
Actually, the whole Constitution is pretty impressive.
All the compromises to accommodate slavery are pretty rank.
In 1783 we were pretty active in that hypocrisy too.
Christ, a Republican on Newsnight has just used the line "but thousands of people are dying of normal flu", followed by "we are not China, we are America!" - so that will magically protect them.
America is f*cked.
Well the thousands dying of flu are gonna find there is a queue at the local undertakers.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
I am guessing that the 1918 line might actually be the same as the coronavirus one; it just stops where it does because there were hardly any over 70s to start with. Equally i am surprised how well the very old do with modern flu - effect of vaccination? I usually assume as a rule of thumb that if I hear an 80 year old has any kind of infection at all they are in grave danger.
The US is a quasi-theocracy run almost entirely by old men. Its healthcare system is dysfunctional. On that basis, it would be no surprise if it turned out to be more Iran than Singapore.
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
I've put a couple of quid on Biden for Maine at 6.
I just put a few quid on Warren...it just seems like she's the only adult in the room
Warren as POTUS is 110 at moment. I've put a pint on that.
Don't ask me how we get from here to there
1) Bernie has another heart attack 2) Profit
0) Bernie selects Warren as running mate.
I don't think that's necessary - if Bernie dropped dead tomorrow I'd say nearly all his supporters and his existing delegate would go to Warren, and if she suddenly became viable she might pull some support off Biden as well.
The US is a quasi-theocracy run almost entirely by old men. Its healthcare system is dysfunctional. On that basis, it would be no surprise if it turned out to be more Iran than Singapore.
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
I am guessing that the 1918 line might actually be the same as the coronavirus one; it just stops where it does because there were hardly any over 70s to start with. Equally i am surprised how well the very old do with modern flu - effect of vaccination? I usually assume as a rule of thumb that if I hear an 80 year old has any kind of infection at all they are in grave danger.
Yes, I think that true in part of 1918, and of course no antibiotics then, though contemporary descriptions fit cytokine storm in the young.
Strict containment is the way to go. It will be less economically damaging in the longer run too.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
A saddening video from Iran (I won't link, it's grim) shows dozens of bodies in ONE hospital in Qom.
Just one hospital.
I reckon there must be hundreds of dead in Iran, perhaps thousands.
The virus is showing up which countries have really poor health systems. By contrast Germany has had 160 cases and no deaths.
People don't die immediately. Germany's cases are quite new. But yes, with such a low level of cases, the vast majority of people should live, if they aren't it shows many missed cases, or incompetence.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
*Assuming a non-overwhelmed healthcare system.
Past 20k cases that is an assumption that will not hold.
The US is a quasi-theocracy run almost entirely by old men. Its healthcare system is dysfunctional. On that basis, it would be no surprise if it turned out to be more Iran than Singapore.
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
I honestly believe that Trump would sacrifice his children to save his own neck if he had to.
There’s a spectacularly ignorant American official being interviewed on Newsnight right now.
Incredible, wasn't it?
She actually said "look, we only have 9 cases!"
Which is stupefying on several million levels.
She seemed to think the rest of the world is like communist East Germany. She kept on saying America is different because it's a country of freedom and people come in and out.
The US is a quasi-theocracy run almost entirely by old men. Its healthcare system is dysfunctional. On that basis, it would be no surprise if it turned out to be more Iran than Singapore.
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
I honestly believe that Trump would sacrifice his children to save his own neck if he had to.
Well, maybe all of them but the one he thinks is a piece of ass.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
The US is a quasi-theocracy run almost entirely by old men. Its healthcare system is dysfunctional. On that basis, it would be no surprise if it turned out to be more Iran than Singapore.
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
Perhaps the great historical irony of Coronavirus will be when China handles the bug better than America.
There have been a number of articles written about how Covid-19 exposes defects in Chinese totalitarianism. While those defects won't cease to exist if the US suffers more, it won't exactly be a good advert for democracy.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
*Assuming a non-overwhelmed healthcare system.
Past 20k cases that is an assumption that will not hold.
No, under 50s will still generally recover with no hospital treatment at all and a hot broth in bed.
Hospital treatment may still be needed for pensioners who get it though
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
And also, I know several family and friends in their 80s. So it is a concern even though I am 55.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
It is statistically indistinguishable a death rate for 40s and under between coronavirus and normal flu. Over 99% will recover
The US is a quasi-theocracy run almost entirely by old men. Its healthcare system is dysfunctional. On that basis, it would be no surprise if it turned out to be more Iran than Singapore.
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
I haven't been to the States for about 5 years, but when I was last there, I was taken by the numbers of people who had fallen through the cracks of society. No European style welfare system for them either.
It is no fun being poor anywhere, and we have our own problems, but the USA must be the worst place in the G7 to be down on your luck.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
It is statistically indistinguishable a death rate for 40s and under between coronavirus and normal flu. Over 99% will recover
That's a very definitive claim based off of a small sample size of untrustworthy data.
It's also an incorrect one, there is a difference, even if you cannot see it in that graph.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
It is statistically indistinguishable a death rate for 40s and under between coronavirus and normal flu. Over 99% will recover
The fatality risk for 40 somethings is at least 10 times higher for coronavirus than for flu.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
Actually the blue line is about level with the green line until the age of 40, I am 38.
We must be close to the moment when the public wakes up.
Tomorrow? Wednesday?
What will it take? Sturgeon today talked of 50-80% infected, and 250,000 SCOTS in hospital. And yet it hasn't impacted.
How and when does the news break through the Normalcy Bias?
Perhaps when they start digging graves and building tented hospitals, which must happen soon. What you can see is so much more intense.
Because most people understand that a reasonable worst case is unlikely to happen
But, Charles, would you not agree that if you divide those figures by let's say 4 they are still devastating? And that an outcome somewhere in 75% of the range of all the possible outcomes is possibly quite likely to happen?
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
*Assuming a non-overwhelmed healthcare system.
Past 20k cases that is an assumption that will not hold.
No, under 50s will still generally recover with no hospital treatment at all and a hot broth in bed.
Hospital treatment may still be needed for pensioners who get it though
We're back to the broth strategy. Definitely time to say goodnight!
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
Actually the blue line is about level with the green line until the age of 40
No it isn't - look closely.
(Specsavers have some good deals on at the moment, just saying.)
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
*Assuming a non-overwhelmed healthcare system.
Past 20k cases that is an assumption that will not hold.
Going past 20k cases seems inevitable now.
So we're...... hmm..... not in a great place.
We're in a far better place than just about any other country with regards to slowing the onset. France has already abandoned containment. We've bought a week, maybe two before pandemic stage while we see it ravage Europe, which may be enough to lower our R0 by enough to miss the worse.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
It is statistically indistinguishable a death rate for 40s and under between coronavirus and normal flu. Over 99% will recover
That's a very definitive claim based off of a small sample size of untrustworthy data.
It's also an incorrect one, there is a difference, even if you cannot see it in that graph.
It is drawn from clear statistical data and matches other stats
No, but sometimes it seems like american politics exists to make ours (mostly) look better.
Our politics is better. It's not just the leaders and parties, which I think are better, it's things like the neutrality of government departments, independent judiciary, a press that is on the whole more willing to challenge the executive, and our parties seem to be broader. I think we also do a lot better with things like elections, seat boundaries, and voter registration.
We're not perfect, but I really can't think of any aspect of US politics that we should copy.
The First Amendment
Actually, the whole Constitution is pretty impressive.
Sure, if you don't ever get as far as the Second Amendment.
On the first, it would have been interesting to watch the Parkfield protests in a First Amendment world. The protesters would have been citing both their right to freedom of religion, and to peaceable assembly.
It would have a positive effect on our defamation laws, but probably a negative one on our press (the OJ trial was particularly unbecoming; I recently watched the Netflix dramatisation, thinking "this couldn't happen here" about ten times an episode).
To me, the US's biggest problem has always been that they think "X is good. Therefore more X is better." The First Amendment is a perfect example - there is such a thing as too much freedom.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
It is, and a 1.8% chance of death as a fifty something male is not trivial, even if @HYUFD is fool enough to think so. 10% needing Intensive Care is not just like a normal flu.
Newsnight is now discussing the minutiae of Priti Patel's argument with her staff.
In the shadow of coronavirus, this feels like counting-angel-pin-head territory, and you can tell from the face of the Newsnight journalist that he knows this, even if his guests don't.
He's thinking: FFS, thousands are about to die, who cares, oh God, I've got to carry on.
With apologies to Casino Royale, I reckon that in about a week all other news will probably fade out entirely.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
Actually the blue line is about level with the green line until the age of 40
No it isn't - look closely.
(Specsavers have some good deals on at the moment, just saying.)
The fact you have to use a microscope to see any difference between the blue and green lines under the age of 40 does not disprove my point
I've put a couple of quid on Biden for Maine at 6.
I just put a few quid on Warren...it just seems like she's the only adult in the room
Warren as POTUS is 110 at moment. I've put a pint on that.
Don't ask me how we get from here to there
1) Bernie has another heart attack 2) Profit
0) Bernie selects Warren as running mate.
I don't think that's necessary - if Bernie dropped dead tomorrow I'd say nearly all his supporters and his existing delegate would go to Warren, and if she suddenly became viable she might pull some support off Biden as well.
If Bernie drops dead tomorrow, his supporters are going to start screaming conspiracy and building barricades.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
It is, and a 1.8% chance of death as a fifty something male is not trivial, even if @HYUFD is fool enough to think so. 10% needing Intensive Care is not just like a normal flu.
As you can also die from normal flu the difference is trivial actually, it is only over the age of 60 and especially over the age of 80 a significantly higher fatality rate is seen with coronavirus than normal flu.
Though it should be noted on those stats even most over 80s would survive coronavirus
Some of those must be Russian vehicles if not 'military advisers'. Now the Russians say they are putting troops in Idlib there is no oopsie didn't see you down there.
This could be unprecedented NATO Turkey in active conflict against Russia. Two hard headed nationalists refusing to back down. What could go wrong?
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
Actually the blue line is about level with the green line until the age of 40
No it isn't - look closely.
(Specsavers have some good deals on at the moment, just saying.)
This is a plot of the lower reaches, the bottom on a log scale.
The US is a quasi-theocracy run almost entirely by old men. Its healthcare system is dysfunctional. On that basis, it would be no surprise if it turned out to be more Iran than Singapore.
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
I haven't been to the States for about 5 years, but when I was last there, I was taken by the numbers of people who had fallen through the cracks of society. No European style welfare system for them either.
It is no fun being poor anywhere, and we have our own problems, but the USA must be the worst place in the G7 to be down on your luck.
Yes, although to be fair I think that outside the cities there's a fair chance that your neighbo(u)rs will rally round if you get into sudden difficulty - the mutual support in small towns is probably stronger than in the UK (I have no idea who most of my neighbours are, except my landlady). But in the cities, poverty is grim and the sense of abandonment palpable.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
*Assuming a non-overwhelmed healthcare system.
Past 20k cases that is an assumption that will not hold.
No, under 50s will still generally recover with no hospital treatment at all and a hot broth in bed.
Hospital treatment may still be needed for pensioners who get it though
Hot broth!
You should actually start the "HYUFD From PB's Hot Broth Coronavirus Pop Up". You'll make millions
Yes, this is a good time to be a soup entrepreneur
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
I am guessing that the 1918 line might actually be the same as the coronavirus one; it just stops where it does because there were hardly any over 70s to start with. Equally i am surprised how well the very old do with modern flu - effect of vaccination? I usually assume as a rule of thumb that if I hear an 80 year old has any kind of infection at all they are in grave danger.
Yes, I think that true in part of 1918, and of course no antibiotics then, though contemporary descriptions fit cytokine storm in the young.
Strict containment is the way to go. It will be less economically damaging in the longer run too.
Genuine question (given the poster I assume it's my knowledge that is lacking here) - how are antibiotics relevant to flu? For secondary (bacterial) infections? Do elderly flu sufferers often get (or already have) other infections that are harder to deal with when also fighting flu?
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
I am guessing that the 1918 line might actually be the same as the coronavirus one; it just stops where it does because there were hardly any over 70s to start with. Equally i am surprised how well the very old do with modern flu - effect of vaccination? I usually assume as a rule of thumb that if I hear an 80 year old has any kind of infection at all they are in grave danger.
Yes, I think that true in part of 1918, and of course no antibiotics then, though contemporary descriptions fit cytokine storm in the young.
Strict containment is the way to go. It will be less economically damaging in the longer run too.
Genuine question (given the poster I assume it's my knowledge that is lacking here) - how are antibiotics relevant to flu? For secondary (bacterial) infections? Do elderly flu sufferers often get (or already have) other infections that are harder to deal with when also fighting flu?
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
Very few under 50s with coronavirus will need hospital treatment
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
It is statistically indistinguishable a death rate for 40s and under between coronavirus and normal flu. Over 99% will recover
The Blitz killed well under 1% of Brits, but few would have described it as "of no concern".
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
*Assuming a non-overwhelmed healthcare system.
Past 20k cases that is an assumption that will not hold.
Going past 20k cases seems inevitable now.
So we're...... hmm..... not in a great place.
We're in a far better place than just about any other country with regards to slowing the onset. France has already abandoned containment. We've bought a week, maybe two before pandemic stage while we see it ravage Europe, which may be enough to lower our R0 by enough to miss the worse.
Really??
Oh God, I hope you're right. Please be right!
I was in a bar in Soho tonight surrounded by happy drinkers, with an old friend, and for about five minutes I felt this intense, unique sadness: that all this was likely about to end, that life was about to change, greatly for the worse.
And all those drinkers around me were completely oblivious (and I think they are oblivious, most people just don't think this crazy big bad thing will happen).
It's gonna be a scary ride, whatever.
We're doing about 2k tests a day, about 1.5 times what the US and France have done in total. We're (probably) delaying the onset by a week from France, Germany, Spain, two from Italy and the US. If those countries start recording hundreds to thousands of deaths behaviour will change.
At the moment it's not on the radar massively because there's maybe 70 deaths in all those countries combined.
Anecdotally most people I know have been advised and supplied with resources for working from home and are starting to take other measures.
Delaying the onset of widespread community transmission will lead to a lower R0, and a medical system that is marginally more prepared. How much of an effect our current widespread testing has will only be clear after the issue has passed.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
Actually the blue line is about level with the green line until the age of 40
No it isn't - look closely.
(Specsavers have some good deals on at the moment, just saying.)
This is a plot of the lower reaches, the bottom on a log scale.
For a 30 something there is a 0.2% fatality rate with Covid19 vs 0.01% for seasonal flu.
An order of magnitude increase.
Now, I myself am not worried about that (although I do seem to have an annual bout of something respiratory related every year) but only a blithering fucking moron who can never admit to being wrong could claim there is no difference between the two.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
It is statistically indistinguishable a death rate for 40s and under between coronavirus and normal flu. Over 99% will recover
The Blitz killed well under 1% of Brits, but few would have described it as "of no concern".
If they also had a risk under 1% of being bombed before anyway, yes it would be of no real concern to the usual
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
If the infection cases double every 2 days (which seems a fair assessment right now) then the UK will reach 20,000 cases in about a week and a half.
So we don't have long before we find out if you are right. Unless sunlight kills this bloody thing, somehow.
You're wrong on that one in two ways.
Firstly, it seems like estimations for doubling rate is closer to 4-6 days. At the moment lots of the leaps in case numbers are due to the testers knowing where to look.
Secondly, we have two community transmission cases, far fewer than Germany, Spain, France (all over 100 ct). We *should* have contact traced all of the other 37 imported cases, and they shouldn't result in further cases, hence should be excluded from the doubling estimate.
There's lots of reason to be gloomy, but a little bit optimism for the UK for the time being.
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
If true, that's a very pertinent point - but I suspect the scales are deceptive. The blue line is many times higher than the green line, even at ages below 50.
Actually the blue line is about level with the green line until the age of 40
No it isn't - look closely.
(Specsavers have some good deals on at the moment, just saying.)
This is a plot of the lower reaches, the bottom on a log scale.
For a 30 something there is a 0.2% fatality rate with Covid19 vs 0.01% for seasonal flu.
An order of magnitude increase.
Now, I myself am not worried about that (although I do seem to have an annual bout of something respiratory related every year) but only a blithering fucking moron who can never admit to being wrong could claim there is no difference between the two.
Essentially there is none, no, there is well over a 99% survival rate in both cases.
I have had surgery with a higher death rate than that
We must be close to the moment when the public wakes up.
Tomorrow? Wednesday?
What will it take? Sturgeon today talked of 50-80% infected, and 250,000 SCOTS in hospital. And yet it hasn't impacted.
How and when does the news break through the Normalcy Bias?
Perhaps when they start digging graves and building tented hospitals, which must happen soon. What you can see is so much more intense.
Because most people understand that a reasonable worst case is unlikely to happen
But, Charles, would you not agree that if you divide those figures by let's say 4 they are still devastating? And that an outcome somewhere in 75% of the range of all the possible outcomes is possibly quite likely to happen?
I'd say its either (fairly well) contained, or it isn't. Once you get past a certain point, containment at small scale as we're seeing in UK now it's not possible, there are too many contacts to chase. So either it's quite well contained, in which small numbers of infections before seasonality brings a drop - order of magnitude below worst case or it's not and the numbers go up sharply to some fraction of worst case (depending on the virus itself and whatever larger scale quarantineis possible)
First person account of an Italian Covid sufferer. 59 year old with a history of pneumonia, she pulled through with what sounds like minimal treatment:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/i-had-the-coronavirus-worst-part-stigma.html ... They took some X-rays, and they confirmed that I had pneumonia. There were no rooms in isolation, though, so they put me on a stretcher in an unused office that lacked even a bathroom. Every two hours they would come to check my vitals. They gave me the swab, and the results came back a day later: positive for COVID-19.
When they told me about it, I wasn’t afraid for myself. I had figured I had it, and I was actually doing better—it was like having a bad flu. I was afraid for everyone else. I thought back to whom I had seen, whom I had come in contact with, and I hoped with all of myself that no one had contracted the virus. I had to call my friends, family, and co-workers and explain the whole story.
They transferred me to the infectious diseases department at a bigger hospital in Bergamo. There, they were more prepared to handle this emergency. I was in isolation; no one could visit me. Since there is no cure, they could only give me Tylenol...
Interesting chart comparing mortality for seasonal flu, Spanish Flu of 1918 and COVID19.
So for over 80s coronavirus is a serious concern, for under 50s it is no more of a concern than normal flu
0.4% mortality for 40 somethings is not of no concern.
It is statistically indistinguishable a death rate for 40s and under between coronavirus and normal flu. Over 99% will recover
The Blitz killed well under 1% of Brits, but few would have described it as "of no concern".
Ah, yes, but most of those were in London. Coronavirus is assumed to be less important until we are sure it will disproportionately affect the Capital.
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
Very few under 50s with coronavirus will need hospital treatment
Have you seen the many many videos of people under 50 just collapsing in the street and dying? It happened in China, now it is happening in Iran.
I can link if you want.
EDIT
I will link one. This is less distressing than most, because he doesn't die, and he gets medical attention, in many of these videos people just die on the street.
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
Very few under 50s with coronavirus will need hospital treatment
Have you seen the many many videos of people under 50 just collapsing in the street and dying? It happened in China, now it is happening in Iran.
I can link if you want.
EDIT
I will link one. This is less distressing than most, because he doesn't die, and he gets medical attention, in many of these videos people just die on the street.
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
If the infection cases double every 2 days (which seems a fair assessment right now) then the UK will reach 20,000 cases in about a week and a half.
So we don't have long before we find out if you are right. Unless sunlight kills this bloody thing, somehow.
You're wrong on that one in two ways.
Firstly, it seems like estimations for doubling rate is closer to 4-6 days. At the moment lots of the leaps in case numbers are due to the testers knowing where to look.
Secondly, we have two community transmission cases, far fewer than Germany, Spain, France (all over 100 ct). We *should* have contact traced all of the other 37 imported cases, and they shouldn't result in further cases, hence should be excluded from the doubling estimate.
There's lots of reason to be gloomy, but a little bit optimism for the UK for the time being.
Yes, I think so too. If it does break out in a big way then social isolation and quarantine is the best option for both individuals and for wider society and the national economy. It worked in China, Singapore, and can do so here. It will only take off in a big way if we let it.
nextstrain.org is so good, but that's the person behind it, saying that from the evidence they have from sequencing that there's been over a month of undetected transmission in WA due to the stringent testing criteria.
Median estimate of 570 cases in WA, assuming 6 days to double. Up to 1,500.
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
Very few under 50s with coronavirus will need hospital treatment
Have you seen the many many videos of people under 50 just collapsing in the street and dying? It happened in China, now it is happening in Iran.
I can link if you want.
EDIT
I will link one. This is less distressing than most, because he doesn't die, and he gets medical attention, in many of these videos people just die on the street.
Comments
2) Profit
Restoration of the American Republic before it is too late.
Biden has repeatedly focused on Trump, what's wrong with Trump, the threat to democracy etc etc. He's stayed above to a degree the arguments about wealth tax, i have a plan for that health plan etc.
Even if he sleeps through the entire next four years whilst Martians invade, he'd still cause less damage.
https://twitter.com/SecAzar/status/1234120364457971712
This is odd too.
https://twitter.com/howroute/status/1234606891243909120?s=19
'There's no travel restrictions, oh except for (lists countries)'
As I’ve said a few times on here - and apologies for returning to the theme - on my last few visits over to the US the decaying of the demos, the collapse of that swaggering can-do confidence, the increasing lack of pity is palpable. Trump is a president for these times. He will kill thousands, maybe tens of thousands of American citizens. And it will not cost him a moment if the few hours of half-sleep he drops into each night.
https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1234614993401909255?s=21
This is odd too.
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1234603592407044096?s=19 Yes, I think that true in part of 1918, and of course no antibiotics then, though contemporary descriptions fit cytokine storm in the young.
Strict containment is the way to go. It will be less economically damaging in the longer run too.
Past 20k cases that is an assumption that will not hold.
Hospital treatment may still be needed for pensioners who get it though
It is no fun being poor anywhere, and we have our own problems, but the USA must be the worst place in the G7 to be down on your luck.
It's also an incorrect one, there is a difference, even if you cannot see it in that graph.
(Specsavers have some good deals on at the moment, just saying.)
On the first, it would have been interesting to watch the Parkfield protests in a First Amendment world. The protesters would have been citing both their right to freedom of religion, and to peaceable assembly.
It would have a positive effect on our defamation laws, but probably a negative one on our press (the OJ trial was particularly unbecoming; I recently watched the Netflix dramatisation, thinking "this couldn't happen here" about ten times an episode).
To me, the US's biggest problem has always been that they think "X is good. Therefore more X is better." The First Amendment is a perfect example - there is such a thing as too much freedom.
Though it should be noted on those stats even most over 80s would survive coronavirus
the raw footage is here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5SMvWOdlkTw
Some of those must be Russian vehicles if not 'military advisers'. Now the Russians say they are putting troops in Idlib there is no oopsie didn't see you down there.
This could be unprecedented
NATO Turkey in active conflict against Russia. Two hard headed nationalists refusing to back down. What could go wrong?
https://twitter.com/ojessen/status/1234602153542635523?s=09
For a 30 something there is a 0.2% fatality rate with Covid19 vs 0.01% for seasonal flu.
The PB monarchists taking such a detailed interest in a country with an ELECTED head of state.
At the moment it's not on the radar massively because there's maybe 70 deaths in all those countries combined.
Anecdotally most people I know have been advised and supplied with resources for working from home and are starting to take other measures.
Delaying the onset of widespread community transmission will lead to a lower R0, and a medical system that is marginally more prepared. How much of an effect our current widespread testing has will only be clear after the issue has passed.
Now, I myself am not worried about that (although I do seem to have an annual bout of something respiratory related every year) but only a blithering fucking moron who can never admit to being wrong could claim there is no difference between the two.
Firstly, it seems like estimations for doubling rate is closer to 4-6 days. At the moment lots of the leaps in case numbers are due to the testers knowing where to look.
Secondly, we have two community transmission cases, far fewer than Germany, Spain, France (all over 100 ct). We *should* have contact traced all of the other 37 imported cases, and they shouldn't result in further cases, hence should be excluded from the doubling estimate.
There's lots of reason to be gloomy, but a little bit optimism for the UK for the time being.
I have had surgery with a higher death rate than that
nextstrain.org is so good, but that's the person behind it, saying that from the evidence they have from sequencing that there's been over a month of undetected transmission in WA due to the stringent testing criteria.
Median estimate of 570 cases in WA, assuming 6 days to double. Up to 1,500.