New Hampshire case is a medical worker. All these medical workers being the first sign of a case in a US implies that there are much great outbreaks than known currently.
Remember, those stats are for a semi-functioning healthcare system. To be generous, we have 24,961 concurrent infections left before those stats look like big lowballs. China imported about 0.7 medical workers per case in Wuhan, and still had a 5% mortality rate.
Very few under 50s with coronavirus will need hospital treatment
Have you seen the many many videos of people under 50 just collapsing in the street and dying? It happened in China, now it is happening in Iran.
I can link if you want.
EDIT
I will link one. This is less distressing than most, because he doesn't die, and he gets medical attention, in many of these videos people just die on the street.
Iran is a messed up country, but a virus is a virus, I am not sure why we will not see this in the UK. The guy in this video is young.
So the guy has an uncomfortable experience but still does not die then
Out of respect for the mods and my fellow PBers I have not linked to the dozens (maybe hundreds) of videos which are way worse than this, where people just die in the street. They are deeply distressing.
It seems that the bug has a second wave when it comes back much more aggressively and can just kill you in minutes.
Statistical evidence rather than the usual dubious YouTube shock vids?
I've put a couple of quid on Biden for Maine at 6.
I just put a few quid on Warren...it just seems like she's the only adult in the room
Warren as POTUS is 110 at moment. I've put a pint on that.
Don't ask me how we get from here to there
1) Bernie has another heart attack 2) Profit
0) Bernie selects Warren as running mate.
I don't think that's necessary - if Bernie dropped dead tomorrow I'd say nearly all his supporters and his existing delegate would go to Warren, and if she suddenly became viable she might pull some support off Biden as well.
If Bernie drops dead tomorrow, his supporters are going to start screaming conspiracy and building barricades.
New Hampshire case is a medical worker. All these medical workers being the first sign of a case in a US implies that there are much great outbreaks than known currently.
The strain in Seattle is genetically identical to the first recorded case there in mid Jan, suggesting that there was undiagnosed transmission by the first case, and it has been wild there for 6 weeks. There are likely about 570 cases there at present.
New Hampshire case is a medical worker. All these medical workers being the first sign of a case in a US implies that there are much great outbreaks than known currently.
The strain in Seattle is genetically identical to the first recorded case there in mid Jan, suggesting that there was undiagnosed transmission by the first case, and it has been wild there for 6 weeks. There are likely about 570 cases there at present.
Yep, I shared that a little bit downthread at 11:49. The whole nextstrain.org stuff is really interesting and cool. But that 570 end conclusion is quite scary given the seemingly generous assumption of 6.1 days. The US response will be an amazing casestudy in what not to do in years to come.
Massively odds on that the candidates for the next US election will be well into their seventies. With COVID-19 rampant in America. Must be massive value on the next President not currently being listed in the betting...
While most of the credit for the handling of Covid-19 so far goes to PHE and Hancock at least Johnson is being up front about the likely path - in contrast to Trump:
New Hampshire case is a medical worker. All these medical workers being the first sign of a case in a US implies that there are much great outbreaks than known currently.
The strain in Seattle is genetically identical to the first recorded case there in mid Jan, suggesting that there was undiagnosed transmission by the first case, and it has been wild there for 6 weeks. There are likely about 570 cases there at present.
Yep, I shared that a little bit downthread at 11:49. The whole nextstrain.org stuff is really interesting and cool. But that 570 end conclusion is quite scary given the seemingly generous assumption of 6.1 days. The US response will be an amazing casestudy in what not to do in years to come.
But in ROK it may be a function of their testing protocols.
Another theory is that the virus doesn’t spread evenly but is massively influenced by “superspreader” events. Such events cause a rapid escalation in cases, which then takes many days or weeks to work their way out of the figures and deliver a return to more “normal” rate of spread. So the lesson is that every action has to be taken to try to prevent superspreader events in the first place. Which I guess must be a combination of massive public education on how to protect yourself and others, as well as reducing the potential for super spreading to occur.
New Hampshire case is a medical worker. All these medical workers being the first sign of a case in a US implies that there are much great outbreaks than known currently.
The strain in Seattle is genetically identical to the first recorded case there in mid Jan, suggesting that there was undiagnosed transmission by the first case, and it has been wild there for 6 weeks. There are likely about 570 cases there at present.
Yep, I shared that a little bit downthread at 11:49. The whole nextstrain.org stuff is really interesting and cool. But that 570 end conclusion is quite scary given the seemingly generous assumption of 6.1 days. The US response will be an amazing casestudy in what not to do in years to come.
I think 6 days is very generous.
Having seen that Iranian bodybag video I'd agree.
I reckon six days is what you get in a fairly well organised, fairly wealthy East Asian country. Taiwan? I'm just guessing here. I'm too tired to get the data. Somewhere super rich and super organised like Singapore will be even better.
In Iran it is, apparently, more like 1.5 days.
The rest of the world won't be that bad (I hope) but in Europe, which will likely be unwilling to do Wuhan welding type scenarios, maybe 4 days? 3?
We do not have much time. The government should be closing down mass activity now.
This is almost entirely pre-SC fieldwork and Biden is already well ahead of Bloomberg. I wouldn't be surprised if Bloomberg support completely deflates at this point.
New Hampshire case is a medical worker. All these medical workers being the first sign of a case in a US implies that there are much great outbreaks than known currently.
The strain in Seattle is genetically identical to the first recorded case there in mid Jan, suggesting that there was undiagnosed transmission by the first case, and it has been wild there for 6 weeks. There are likely about 570 cases there at present.
Yep, I shared that a little bit downthread at 11:49. The whole nextstrain.org stuff is really interesting and cool. But that 570 end conclusion is quite scary given the seemingly generous assumption of 6.1 days. The US response will be an amazing casestudy in what not to do in years to come.
I think 6 days is very generous.
Having seen that Iranian bodybag video I'd agree.
I reckon six days is what you get in a fairly well organised, fairly wealthy East Asian country. Taiwan? I'm just guessing here. I'm too tired to get the data. Somewhere super rich and super organised like Singapore will be even better.
In Iran it is, apparently, more like 1.5 days.
The rest of the world won't be that bad (I hope) but in Europe, which will likely be unwilling to do Wuhan welding type scenarios, maybe 4 days? 3?
We do not have much time. The government should be closing down mass activity now.
Don’t think that actually makes sense when numbers are so low. The virus is just as likely to jump significantly due to some specific cases (superspreaders) as it is due to natural transmission in the general population. And the current risk from specific “mass activity” events is no greater than what you get going about your daily life on public transport or whatever. Even going to eg. a football match you are unlikely to come into direct contact with significant numbers of people. And there are other consequences to “shutting everything down” which would in itself lead to other negative health outcomes.
It might be different if by taking extreme action to kill off the virus in the U.K. would make it disappear. But it wouldn’t. Because the virus is not isolated to the U.K., and would just become reintroduced from abroad in very short order.
Don’t think that actually makes sense when numbers are so low. The virus is just as likely to jump significantly due to some specific cases (superspreaders) as it is due to natural transmission in the general population. And the current risk from specific “mass activity” events is no greater than what you get going about your daily life on public transport or whatever. Even going to eg. a football match you are unlikely to come into direct contact with significant numbers of people. And there are other consequences to “shutting everything down” which would in itself lead to other negative health outcomes.
It might be different if by taking extreme action to kill off the virus in the U.K. would make it disappear. But it wouldn’t. Because the virus is not isolated to the U.K., and would just become reintroduced from abroad in very short order.
I don't think anyone suggested shutting *everything* down? In Japan they've shut down (via a general government request, it's not mandatory) public events that bring a lot of people into close proximity. This has no particular negative health outcome. As for public transport... the suggestion is to work from home where practical as well - which probably has *positive* productivity outcomes...
It's true that the risk of any individual is low - currently so low that from the point of view of an individual you should just ignore it. However, the point of the exercise is to reduce the probability of any given case spreading. A world where the average sufferer gives it to 0.8 people is totally different to a world where they give it to 1.6 people.
It's also useful if you can limit the spread to *known* people (ie we know you may have given it to your family, and at worst maybe you also went to shops X and Y so there might be a risk there) who you can proactively monitor and test, rather than knowing that somone was spreading the disease, but not knowing which of the 10,000 people who attended the event may have got it.
Comments
ROK seems to have reversed it's new cases trend. Numbers dropping for second consecutive day.
https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1234615026335600642?s=09
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
Biden 2.24 / 2.28
Sanders 2.34 / 2.36
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589598652784642?s=19
"Johnson revives onshore wind farms after 4-year ban
Policy reversal follows Cameron vow to rid UK of ‘unsightly’ structures"
https://www.ft.com/content/b8ddb2f4-5c83-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98
It's also one of very few stocks that is up in the last month.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SCI/
(I used to own it when I was a fund manager, and it did pretty well for my investors.)
So some light relief - https://youtu.be/jiu0lYQIPqE
Good night all.
https://twitter.com/10DowningStreet/status/1234489933777309696?s=20
https://twitter.com/keithboykin/status/1234641701106601984
It might be different if by taking extreme action to kill off the virus in the U.K. would make it disappear. But it wouldn’t. Because the virus is not isolated to the U.K., and would just become reintroduced from abroad in very short order.
It's true that the risk of any individual is low - currently so low that from the point of view of an individual you should just ignore it. However, the point of the exercise is to reduce the probability of any given case spreading. A world where the average sufferer gives it to 0.8 people is totally different to a world where they give it to 1.6 people.
It's also useful if you can limit the spread to *known* people (ie we know you may have given it to your family, and at worst maybe you also went to shops X and Y so there might be a risk there) who you can proactively monitor and test, rather than knowing that somone was spreading the disease, but not knowing which of the 10,000 people who attended the event may have got it.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://twitter.com/davidlipson/status/1234649377320210432?s=20
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
But fair play to Biden, he’s played this like a master.