Seems like they're following the Japanese playbook of waiting until it's too late, then doing mostly the right things.
Currently there have been no deaths from coronavirus on UK soil and we have had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, the USA and Japan
Surely knowing what we do from the experience of other countries the aim should be to get ahead of the disease by putting measures in place now rather than waiting until we have caught up with their infection and death rates.
I don't see anyway we avoid the economic and social consequences of this so we should take the action now to try and mitigate the human cost.
I notice the BFE rules on the nominee are who gets elected at the convention, not who fights the election. Reducing the health risk marginally for the older candidates.
Given the power of endorsements mentioned earlier, I wonder if this isn't a moment of opportunity for Buttigieg and Klouchar and maybe Warren - if they endorse someone BEFORE ST and that someone goes on to win, they should be able to get a promise of the Cabinet position of their choice, if not VP. After ST, possibly it'll be too late to matter.
This would usually be true, and given Biden's age either Buttigieg or Baemy would be nuts to turn down the VP slot if it was offered. But if you end up with a contested convention they potentially end up with a lot of power even from quite a small number of delegates, so if Biden is going to make them an offer it'll have to be pretty good.
Seems like they're following the Japanese playbook of waiting until it's too late, then doing mostly the right things.
Currently there have been no deaths from coronavirus on UK soil and we have had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, the USA and Japan
I suppose I'm wasting my time explaining this but when you have a fairly contagious disease which takes 3 to 6 weeks to kill anybody, you don't want to base your response on how many people have so far died from it.
Nor be complacent based on comparative numbers as it could be that country a has had more people traveling to risk areas than country b. The real measure will be containment and spread to those who have not travelled.
Burgon on Marr now saying Socialism was not the reason for Labour's defeat, the Brexit issue being the change from 2017 to 2019 and the party should keep its Socialist policies and not triangulate back to power
The unreconstructed, diehard, hard left is going to be a real help to Starmer if he wins. The more they attack him, the better. It will alienate Labour members and demonstrate to the wider public that Labour is under new management.
it will also tell voters there is a really nasty element within Labour.. happy days
As others are speaking of their Bloomberg holes, I'm happy to share mine. I've decided not to fill it up with bets now despite his slip. I think he's still a bit short and I try and take it 'one bet at a time' so if I wouldn't back him now with a clean book I won't do it despite my hole. I may regret that in a week's time, but if he has the Super Tuesday it's looking like then I'll finally be able to sleep easy for the first time in 3 months.
For the record, I don't always bet this much. This is my largest bet ever. My second largest was in 2016. That Trump wouldn't be nominated...
Mr. Root, I try and buy from Waterstones when I can. It's a chain, but a proper bookshop too.
I wait 6 months till they appear second hand in v good condition... at less than half that price...
And the author gets what from that ...?
It's tough writing for a living even as a bestseller.
I suppose you are going to castigate kindle purchases too(I never buy kindle). The author will get jack shit out of that.
No kindle is okay and that's completely untrue. Because PanMacmillan fought Amazon to the wire, authors do get a decent kindle cut. A lot of my income comes from kindle sales.
Agreed. I actually dislike reading books electronically but as an author I think they are great. I get 50% of any kindle sales from my publisher and only 10% on hard copy sales. That is pretty standard across the industry. Kindle books are cheaper for the purchaser but more profitable for me. A win all round.
50%? Sounds a great deal. Like many I suspect I do like the feel of a book and sight of my collection, but I get increasing use out of my kindle (a recent series I wanted was going at 15-25 per book even on amazon but only 3.99 on kindle), a very handy device indeed.
I understand it is pretty standard. There is practically no cost to Amazon for the electronic version - the publisher even does all the prep work and formatting for them. So they are getting a heathy whack as profit.
Seems like they're following the Japanese playbook of waiting until it's too late, then doing mostly the right things.
Currently there have been no deaths from coronavirus on UK soil and we have had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, the USA and Japan
Surely knowing what we do from the experience of other countries the aim should be to get ahead of the disease by putting measures in place now rather than waiting until we have caught up with their infection and death rates.
I don't see anyway we avoid the economic and social consequences of this so we should take the action now to try and mitigate the human cost.
Matt Hancock on Marr now saying the plan to contain now and further plans will develop from that
Mr. Tyndall, on a self-publishing note, an e-book of about £3 or so will bring in as much or more for a writer as an £8-9 paperback.
I tend to buy fiction in e-book format, and history in physical copies.
I don't tend to purchase anything in physical copies nowadays - a kindle is just so much more portable. I do however probably purchase at least 10 books a year as presents for people.
Burgon on Marr now saying Socialism was not the reason for Labour's defeat, the Brexit issue being the change from 2017 to 2019 and the party should keep its Socialist policies and not triangulate back to power
I agree with him. We can win from the Left. Two requirements, (1) Good leader, (2) Modernize the policies.
It's notable that 98.8% of coronavirus fatalities have taken place in 3 countries: China, Iran and Italy. 2,944 out of 2,979. Including South Korea makes it 2,961 or 99.4%.
Seems like they're following the Japanese playbook of waiting until it's too late, then doing mostly the right things.
Currently there have been no deaths from coronavirus on UK soil and we have had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, the USA and Japan
I suppose I'm wasting my time explaining this but when you have a fairly contagious disease which takes 3 to 6 weeks to kill anybody, you don't want to base your response on how many people have so far died from it.
That battle was lost long ago. That joke where a bloke jumps off a hundred storey building, and falls 95 storeys and thinks LOL at the naysayers, turns out not to be a joke.
Burgon on Marr now saying Socialism was not the reason for Labour's defeat, the Brexit issue being the change from 2017 to 2019 and the party should keep its Socialist policies and not triangulate back to power
I agree with him. We can win from the Left. Two requirements, (1) Good leader, (2) Modernize the policies.
If its 2 how is that agreeing with him? I thought he didn't want to change ie modernise any of the current policies?
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
Seems like they're following the Japanese playbook of waiting until it's too late, then doing mostly the right things.
Currently there have been no deaths from coronavirus on UK soil and we have had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, the USA and Japan
I suppose I'm wasting my time explaining this but when you have a fairly contagious disease which takes 3 to 6 weeks to kill anybody, you don't want to base your response on how many people have so far died from it.
That battle was lost long ago. That joke where a bloke jumps off a hundred storey building, and falls 95 storeys and thinks LOL at the naysayers, turns out not to be a joke.
Like I was saying yesterday the conservative skepticism of science has spread to the entire concept of cause-and-effect.
I guess this is kind of a smart move rhetorically, because it's much easier to prove the existence of climate change to someone who wasn't sure it was real than it is to establish through experience the a priori concepts and principles of understanding.
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
Toys are 100% socialised, they are not hardwired. Peer group has a massive effect on the toys children play with.
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
Toys are 100% socialised, they are not hardwired. Peer group has a massive effect on the toys children play with.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
We also can’t isolate ourselves as a country to the virus. There might be little point to everyone being confined to their houses for 3 weeks, for example.
It's notable that 98.8% of coronavirus fatalities have taken place in 3 countries: China, Iran and Italy. 2,944 out of 2,979. Including South Korea makes it 2,961 or 99.4%.
What has been very encouraging to date is how many of the Asian countries seem to have found affected patients and treated them without a spread into the wider communities. India, Thailand, Malaysia, Singpore, Vietnam - all give some confidence that we can get on top of this disease.
But then there's South Korea (although their testing regime is exemplary), Iran, Italy and sad to say USA....
Seems like they're following the Japanese playbook of waiting until it's too late, then doing mostly the right things.
Currently there have been no deaths from coronavirus on UK soil and we have had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, the USA and Japan
I suppose I'm wasting my time explaining this but when you have a fairly contagious disease which takes 3 to 6 weeks to kill anybody, you don't want to base your response on how many people have so far died from it.
It shows that the Government's response and advice has been very good on this so far hence we are doing better than average in terms of containing coronavirus amongst western nations but that it is also prepared to adjust further if required
HYUFD you may well be correct, BUT edmundintokyo initially put an argument forward which you challenged by arguing there have been no deaths on UK soil and fewer cases. He put a counter argument to you as to why he thought that argument was flawed. You repeat your argument using different words and DO NOT respond to his argument.
His comment 'I suppose I'm wasting my time' is apt. You never respond to point with a counter argument. Repeating what you said or saying something unrelated to the argument is not a logical response and therefore not a valid counter argument. This is what what sent IanB2 bonkers sometime ago.
It is easy to check if your argument is logical. Replace the statement with a notation and convert it into logical format. It removes the subjectivity of your and Edmunds opinion .
I am not saying you are wrong in your original statement. You may be right and a logical argument can be made. But you aren't making it and you rarely do.
This isn't a presentation issue or an opinion. As someone who has studied logic it is very frustrating to see. We can differ in opinion on stuff and on many things there is no provable right answer, but the argument needs to follow logic rules which are a matter of mathematical fact.
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
Toys are 100% socialised, they are not hardwired. Peer group has a massive effect on the toys children play with.
Can I have a guess and say you are not a parent?
I am a parent. I've also read the research and it is also anecdotely plainly obvious in my child's peer group(s) as they have grown old and mixed and changed groups.
Sadly there’s a high probability of a lot of truth in that joke.
They won’t acknowledge it until, as with Iran, people start turning up infected in the Gulf states where officials are looking out for people with symptoms.
As others are speaking of their Bloomberg holes, I'm happy to share mine. I've decided not to fill it up with bets now despite his slip. I think he's still a bit short and I try and take it 'one bet at a time' so if I wouldn't back him now with a clean book I won't do it despite my hole. I may regret that in a week's time, but if he has the Super Tuesday it's looking like then I'll finally be able to sleep easy for the first time in 3 months.
For the record, I don't always bet this much. This is my largest bet ever. My second largest was in 2016. That Trump wouldn't be nominated...
Wow. That's a great book.
Are you being sarcastic?
No.
But I could get much better book than that by entering the market today?!
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
Toys are 100% socialised, they are not hardwired. Peer group has a massive effect on the toys children play with.
Substantially so.
Toys and clothes are much more gendered in their marketing that they were in the Seventies. There has always been some differentiation, but increasingly rigidly and damagingly so.
Boys who like sparkly pink unicorns and My Little Pony may well be just that, not trapped in the wrong body.
Sadly there’s a high probability of a lot of truth in that joke.
They won’t acknowledge it until, as with Iran, people start turning up infected in the Gulf states where officials are looking out for people with symptoms.
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
Toys are 100% socialised, they are not hardwired. Peer group has a massive effect on the toys children play with.
Can I have a guess and say you are not a parent?
Can I have a guess and say your sprogs have not discovered Ryan, a youtuber who has some sort of mind control over the toy selection of an entire generation?
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
I would say, to the continual consternation of both ultra-conservatives and gender radicals, that some children, and probably a narrow majority, either full-throatedly or with reservations, instinctively cleave towards to the traditional roles, and others, again apparently instinctively, either embrace them less wholeheartedly, or even hate them. It's clearly more hardwired for some than others.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
As others are speaking of their Bloomberg holes, I'm happy to share mine. I've decided not to fill it up with bets now despite his slip. I think he's still a bit short and I try and take it 'one bet at a time' so if I wouldn't back him now with a clean book I won't do it despite my hole. I may regret that in a week's time, but if he has the Super Tuesday it's looking like then I'll finally be able to sleep easy for the first time in 3 months.
For the record, I don't always bet this much. This is my largest bet ever. My second largest was in 2016. That Trump wouldn't be nominated...
Wow. That's a great book.
Are you being sarcastic?
No.
But I could get much better book than that by entering the market today?!
It's a solidly positive book, unless my maths is off. You could level up on all the reds there and still have a nice green on Biden and Sanders.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
Last estimate I saw was that the projected peak had been pushed back to July. The complicating factor is how much it abates in warmer weather.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
As others are speaking of their Bloomberg holes, I'm happy to share mine. I've decided not to fill it up with bets now despite his slip. I think he's still a bit short and I try and take it 'one bet at a time' so if I wouldn't back him now with a clean book I won't do it despite my hole. I may regret that in a week's time, but if he has the Super Tuesday it's looking like then I'll finally be able to sleep easy for the first time in 3 months.
For the record, I don't always bet this much. This is my largest bet ever. My second largest was in 2016. That Trump wouldn't be nominated...
Wow. That's a great book.
Are you being sarcastic?
No.
But I could get much better book than that by entering the market today?!
It's a solidly positive book, unless my maths is off. You could level up on all the reds there and still have a nice green on Biden and Sanders.
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
I would say, as a matter of continual consternation for both ultra-conservatives and gender radicals, that some children, and probably a narrow majority, instinctively cleave to the traditional roles, and others instinctively embrace them less wholeheartedly, or even hate them. It's clearly more hardwired for some than others.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
Last estimate I saw was that the projected peak had been pushed back to July. The complicating factor is how much it abates in warmer weather.
Or gives a temporary reprieve and re-emerges in November.
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
I would say, as a matter of continual consternation for both ultra-conservatives and gender radicals, that some children, and probably a narrow majority, instinctively cleave to the traditional roles, and others instinctively embrace them less wholeheartedly, or even hate them. It's clearly more hardwired for some than others.
As far I understood it blue is still regarded as a "neutral " colour, no ? I don't know when the culturally overt association between pink and femininity started.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
Agreed, a little bit of nudging people in the right direction, such as working from home instead of commuting to London on trains and busses, will make a material difference to the spread of the virus.
20,000 Watford fans who were at Vicarage Road yesterday evening will disagree with you though!
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
My guess is that the US response will be complacency followed by blind panic, leading to very stringent, often self-defeating, controls with extremely harsh penalties for those who do not comply with them. There will be a lot of banning.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
One problem with scaling back on large events is that they are often ‘vanity’ projects to project national success etc. they also have huge financial impact on those organizing them and those who stand to make money from it. Valencia have said the Fallas is going ahead which will have thousands of people from all over in the streets for four days despite 15 cases detected. As you say though the general public could well just avoid the event if they are concerned. Would be interested in seeing if football attendances we’re down yesterday in UK
Just a random thought, I wonder if the football league could be persuaded to drop the 3pm Saturday blackout rule for televised football, if all the matches were being played behind closed doors?
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
We dont trust children to do a lot of things, it would seem odd to trust such a huge decision to them.
I do sometimes think that gender stereotypes are too strong in childhood, with toys and clothes too rigidly defined. It seems to be impossible to be a boy who likes pink or sparkly things, or a girl who likes military stuff. There is no need to conform to an external gender to like this stuff. The world has long had a history of arty, dandy men, and the opposite in women.
Despite the best efforts of my brother and sister in law my niece and nephew quickly settled on the stereotypical toys & colours! Some things (like sexuality) appear to be hardwired.
Toys are 100% socialised, they are not hardwired. Peer group has a massive effect on the toys children play with.
Can I have a guess and say you are not a parent?
Can I have a guess and say your sprogs have not discovered Ryan, a youtuber who has some sort of mind control over the toy selection of an entire generation?
As others are speaking of their Bloomberg holes, I'm happy to share mine. I've decided not to fill it up with bets now despite his slip. I think he's still a bit short and I try and take it 'one bet at a time' so if I wouldn't back him now with a clean book I won't do it despite my hole. I may regret that in a week's time, but if he has the Super Tuesday it's looking like then I'll finally be able to sleep easy for the first time in 3 months.
For the record, I don't always bet this much. This is my largest bet ever. My second largest was in 2016. That Trump wouldn't be nominated...
Wow. That's a great book.
Are you being sarcastic?
No.
But I could get much better book than that by entering the market today?!
Could you ?
Sanders +1350 Biden +1000 Bloomberg -1100 Pete/Clinton -200 each or so
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
My guess is that the US response will be complacency followed by blind panic, leading to very stringent, often self-defeating, controls with extremely harsh penalties for those who do not comply with them. There will be a lot of banning.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
The default setting for the next month should be
"Do I have to travel to that meeting? Can the phone/Skype do the job instead? How many people really need to attend that meeting? Reduce the attendees to a bare minimum. And don't shake hands if you do meet. If you have any potential symptoms - cough, cold, fever - then don't be a hero and go into work regardless. Do not travel at all. Stay home until the symptoms have gone. And then a day or two more to be sure. They will not be seen as valid grounds for dismissal if you inform your employer what you are doing and why."
As others are speaking of their Bloomberg holes, I'm happy to share mine. I've decided not to fill it up with bets now despite his slip. I think he's still a bit short and I try and take it 'one bet at a time' so if I wouldn't back him now with a clean book I won't do it despite my hole. I may regret that in a week's time, but if he has the Super Tuesday it's looking like then I'll finally be able to sleep easy for the first time in 3 months.
For the record, I don't always bet this much. This is my largest bet ever. My second largest was in 2016. That Trump wouldn't be nominated...
Wow. That's a great book.
Are you being sarcastic?
No.
But I could get much better book than that by entering the market today?!
It's a solidly positive book, unless my maths is off. You could level up on all the reds there and still have a nice green on Biden and Sanders.
Seems like they're following the Japanese playbook of waiting until it's too late, then doing mostly the right things.
Currently there have been no deaths from coronavirus on UK soil and we have had fewer cases than most of Europe, Australia, the USA and Japan
I suppose I'm wasting my time explaining this but when you have a fairly contagious disease which takes 3 to 6 weeks to kill anybody, you don't want to base your response on how many people have so far died from it.
It shows that the Government's response and advice has been very good on this so far hence we are doing better than average in terms of containing coronavirus amongst western nations but that it is also prepared to adjust further if required
HYUFD you may well be correct, BUT edmundintokyo initially put an argument forward which you challenged by arguing there have been no deaths on UK soil and fewer cases. He put a counter argument to you as to why he thought that argument was flawed. You repeat your argument using different words and DO NOT respond to his argument.
His comment 'I suppose I'm wasting my time' is apt. You never respond to point with a counter argument. Repeating what you said or saying something unrelated to the argument is not a logical response and therefore not a valid counter argument. This is what what sent IanB2 bonkers sometime ago.
It is easy to check if your argument is logical. Replace the statement with a notation and convert it into logical format. It removes the subjectivity of your and Edmunds opinion .
I am not saying you are wrong in your original statement. You may be right and a logical argument can be made. But you aren't making it and you rarely do.
This isn't a presentation issue or an opinion. As someone who has studied logic it is very frustrating to see. We can differ in opinion on stuff and on many things there is no provable right answer, but the argument needs to follow logic rules which are a matter of mathematical fact.
Except clearly we are not waiting until it is too late, as confirmed by the fact our coronavirus testing rate is also well above average, there is nothing remotely illogical about that and I will stick to my guns
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
My guess is that the US response will be complacency followed by blind panic, leading to very stringent, often self-defeating, controls with extremely harsh penalties for those who do not comply with them. There will be a lot of banning.
Mr. Tyndall, on a self-publishing note, an e-book of about £3 or so will bring in as much or more for a writer as an £8-9 paperback.
I tend to buy fiction in e-book format, and history in physical copies.
I don't tend to purchase anything in physical copies nowadays - a kindle is just so much more portable. I do however probably purchase at least 10 books a year as presents for people.
I believe that ebooks are also vat rated at 20% and regular books aren’t.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Way to miss the point!
The USA's absence of lifeguards (to follow the analogy) is the problem.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
The default setting for the next month should be
"Do I have to travel to that meeting? Can the phone/Skype do the job instead? How many people really need to attend that meeting? Reduce the attendees to a bear minimum. And don't shake hands if you do meet. If you have any potential symptoms - cough, cold, fever - then don't be a hero and go into work regardless. Do not travel at all. Stay home until the symptoms have gone. And then a day or two more to be sure. They will not be seen as valid grounds for dismissal if you inform your employer what you are doing and why."
Exactly. I mean, most of this stuff isn't just low-cost, it's actually positively productivity-enhancing, even if there was no such thing as Covid19.
And the government will be most likely be recommending it anyhow like 2 or 3 weeks from now, so what's the point in waiting?
That says who produces them, not what constraints they are placed under.
If you'd bothered to read one line further, you'd see that the Scottish Government can change the report as it wishes.
'Q: How do you decide on changes that are made to GERS?
A: In line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, changes are only made to GERS after consultation and discussion with users. This includes discussion at the annual Scottish Economic Statistics Consultation Group,[2] which brings together users of economic statistics from industry, academia and the wider public sector. Public consultation exercises, open to all, are also carried out to allow all users of GERS to comment on planned and suggested changes to GERS.'
Or do you think an independent Scotland would have paid for the London Olympics?
That's really the issue here: that GERS shows a rather optimistic scenario for what Scotland's financial position would be, and the lunatic fringe of the separatists want to see a counterfactual report which gives Scotland all the benefits of having been in a common market with the rest of the UK for fifty years, but which ascribes it none of the member costs. It's as if the ERG had argued that Britain should take on no EU debt because it had been a net contributor all that time. Personally, I can't see why 'Business for Scotland' doesn't go the whole hog and produce a report showing that if the Darien expedition had never taken place the UK would owe Scotland seventy trillion pounds.
I can safely say without even knowing you that you are a stupid unthinking unionist halfwit who is unable to have an original thought , run off back to the flock.
I'm going nowhere near a flock, given what Scottish Nationalists do to sheep.
There are no real numbers to change to , only the fake Westminster crap. They deliberately do not make real data available as it would be embarrassing to them.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Not a great analogy...
I'm afraid that is not my analogy but rather the person I was quoting.
Burgon on Marr now saying Socialism was not the reason for Labour's defeat, the Brexit issue being the change from 2017 to 2019 and the party should keep its Socialist policies and not triangulate back to power
The unreconstructed, diehard, hard left is going to be a real help to Starmer if he wins. The more they attack him, the better. It will alienate Labour members and demonstrate to the wider public that Labour is under new management.
it will also tell voters there is a really nasty element within Labour.. happy days
It's not who is in the party, it is who is control. The Tories eventually won a GE again once it convinced the public the "nasty party" element was no longer holding the reins. The "nasties" never went away (other than in and out of UKIP for a while) as we now know.
A: GERS is produced by Scottish Government statisticians. It is designated as a National Statistics product, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the UK Statistics Authority as being produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. This means the statistics have been found to meet user needs, to be methodologically sound, explained well and produced free of political interference.'
You stupid halfwit , they have to use the fake made up Westminster numbers which are as bent as the Tories. There are 167 estimates in there and fact they have Scotland as responsible for about 70% of UK borrowing shows how bent they are. I can safely say without even knowing you that you are a stupid unthinking unionist halfwit who is unable to have an original thought , run off back to the flock.
When borrowing has been reduced to a small percentage of GDP and when Scotland takes more per capita in taxes why shouldn't it be responsible for a disproportionate share of borrowing?
Eliminate the Barnett formula and take the same revenue per capita that England gets and then you can complain about that.
Philip, get a grip, how do you explain England with 85% of the population borrowing money and trying to pretend that almost 70% of it is borrowed for Scotland with less than 10% of the population. Not even a cretin would try to promote that one.
Re:cancellations. Focusing on large scale events (certainly non international ones) seems pointless when you still have things like the Underground running.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Not a great analogy...
I'm afraid that is not my analogy but rather the person I was quoting.
Except you took it out of context.
What I actually said is that the people at the frontline need to be very concerned and doing their jobs, but the people who aren't at the minute should not panic. Then I used the water analogy - someone who is nowhere near the water and has no intention of going into the water any time soon won't be concerned about drowning but a lifeguard (and anyone who is in water) needs to be.
At the minute the water isn't here yet. We need to be sensible if we get near the water but those whose job it is to be at the frontline have to be up to the job.
I wonder what evidence Sir Philip Rutnam has of bullying. And how much it will be considered worth paying for it not to be aired in public proceedings.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Way to miss the point!
The USA's absence of lifeguards (to follow the analogy) is the problem.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Way to miss the point!
The USA's absence of lifeguards (to follow the analogy) is the problem.
Looking forward to reading your wisdom on this subject when just a few days ago it was something you were entirely unconcerned about. Now you have 'biggest worries'. Lol.
Lot's of experts with expertise on everything on pb.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
The default setting for the next month should be
"Do I have to travel to that meeting? Can the phone/Skype do the job instead? How many people really need to attend that meeting? Reduce the attendees to a bear minimum. And don't shake hands if you do meet. If you have any potential symptoms - cough, cold, fever - then don't be a hero and go into work regardless. Do not travel at all. Stay home until the symptoms have gone. And then a day or two more to be sure. They will not be seen as valid grounds for dismissal if you inform your employer what you are doing and why."
Exactly. I mean, most of this stuff isn't just low-cost, it's actually positively productivity-enhancing, even if there was no such thing as Covid19.
And the government will be most likely be recommending it anyhow like 2 or 3 weeks from now, so what's the point in waiting?
Most of the testing for COVID-19 is going to reveal common cold/flu. We have to minimise the opportunities for people thinking they might have the big bad one, by reducing their chance to catch coughs and colds and fevers.
I honestly reckon that a thread on pb.com would flesh out an effective strategy at minimising the spread in a few hours. Sadly, it is in the hands of government....
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
One problem with scaling back on large events is that they are often ‘vanity’ projects to project national success etc. they also have huge financial impact on those organizing them and those who stand to make money from it. Valencia have said the Fallas is going ahead which will have thousands of people from all over in the streets for four days despite 15 cases detected. As you say though the general public could well just avoid the event if they are concerned. Would be interested in seeing if football attendances we’re down yesterday in UK
Geneva motor show was called off a couple of days ago. They were expecting half a million visitors over the week, that will be a massive dent in the economy - although insurance will undoubtedly cover some of it, and a fair few people with no insurance will visit the city anyway if the airlines don’t cancel their flights.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Not a great analogy...
I'm afraid that is not my analogy but rather the person I was quoting.
Except you took it out of context.
What I actually said is that the people at the frontline need to be very concerned and doing their jobs, but the people who aren't at the minute should not panic. Then I used the water analogy - someone who is nowhere near the water and has no intention of going into the water any time soon won't be concerned about drowning but a lifeguard (and anyone who is in water) needs to be.
At the minute the water isn't here yet. We need to be sensible if we get near the water but those whose job it is to be at the frontline have to be up to the job.
A: GERS is produced by Scottish Government statisticians. It is designated as a National Statistics product, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the UK Statistics Authority as being produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. This means the statistics have been found to meet user needs, to be methodologically sound, explained well and produced free of political interference.'
You stupid halfwit , they have to use the fake made up Westminster numbers which are as bent as the Tories. There are 167 estimates in there and fact they have Scotland as responsible for about 70% of UK borrowing shows how bent they are. I can safely say without even knowing you that you are a stupid unthinking unionist halfwit who is unable to have an original thought , run off back to the flock.
When borrowing has been reduced to a small percentage of GDP and when Scotland takes more per capita in taxes why shouldn't it be responsible for a disproportionate share of borrowing?
Eliminate the Barnett formula and take the same revenue per capita that England gets and then you can complain about that.
Philip, get a grip, how do you explain England with 85% of the population borrowing money and trying to pretend that almost 70% of it is borrowed for Scotland with less than 10% of the population. Not even a cretin would try to promote that one.
Look at the numbers that are published by your own devolved government and if you have an issue with the number then please specify which number you dispute, rather than using a logical fallacy.
We know that spending per capita is higher in Scotland. At an extreme edge case [ignoring NI and Wales] it would be possible to have Scotland responsible for 100% of the borrowing and England 0%. Equally at an extreme edge case [ignoring NI and Wales] it would also be possible to have England responsible for 100% of the borrowing and Scotland 0%.
I'm picking up vibes from Marr that the government is going to make a catastrophic mistake and go for a keep calm and carry on model and not a lock down model. Oh dear.
There are consequences of lockdown which will impact on the health and wellbeing of citizens as well though. And if measures taken by the Government are not accepted by the populous as proportionate, then they will likely be widely flouted and potentially counterproductive.
One thing that the Japanese government has done (after waiting until people died) that AFAIK the British government hasn't done yet (I guess they'll do it once enough people have died) is to *ask* - not require - for people to work from home where practical and scale back large events that bring a lot of people in close proximity to each other.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
One problem with scaling back on large events is that they are often ‘vanity’ projects to project national success etc. they also have huge financial impact on those organizing them and those who stand to make money from it. Valencia have said the Fallas is going ahead which will have thousands of people from all over in the streets for four days despite 15 cases detected. As you say though the general public could well just avoid the event if they are concerned. Would be interested in seeing if football attendances we’re down yesterday in UK
Geneva motor show was called off a couple of days ago. They were expecting half a million visitors over the week, that will be a massive dent in the economy - although insurance will undoubtedly cover some of it, and a fair few people with no insurance will visit the city anyway if the airlines don’t cancel their flights.
Struggling to understand that Spain now on 73, up 6 today already. All returning from Italy or in families of returnees. Is it that more Spaniards go skiing in Italy than Brits? Or is it because Spain is nominally Roman Catholic?
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Way to miss the point!
The USA's absence of lifeguards (to follow the analogy) is the problem.
Looking forward to reading your wisdom on this subject when just a few days ago it was something you were entirely unconcerned about. Now you have 'biggest worries'. Lol.
Lot's of experts with expertise on everything on pb.
I never said I am "entirely unconcerned", I said its right to take it seriously but wrong to panic. Just as the WHO is saying.
I am happy to have a go at both extremes. Panicking headless chickens wanting to shut the country down are not right, nor are ignorant governments refusing to test their citizens for the disease nor tracking its spread.
I wonder what evidence Sir Philip Rutnam has of bullying. And how much it will be considered worth paying for it not to be aired in public proceedings.
I would be very surprised if this ended up in court for exactly the reason you identify.
I wonder what evidence Sir Philip Rutnam has of bullying. And how much it will be considered worth paying for it not to be aired in public proceedings.
Why pay a penny? Does anyone think Priti Patel is going to be let go over this? We're not running a May-style 'The Home Secretary's cat sneezed so she must resign' Government any more...
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
And yet the more extreme advocates of transgender rights argue that they can and must be given the freedom to make their own choices at whatever age or state of maturity
Actions have consequences. It shouldn’t be a one way bet
I wonder what evidence Sir Philip Rutnam has of bullying. And how much it will be considered worth paying for it not to be aired in public proceedings.
I suspect it is more a case of:
"Minister, there is a way of doing things in the Home Office. It has served us for generations. And what you are suggesting - well, it just isn't done...."
"Well, it fookin' is now! Do as you're told!"
*Collapse in a fit of the vapours, followed by a call to a chum at the Beeb for live coverage of your resignation alleging bullying....*
Much as you would like to think otherwise, there is always the niggling doubt that some career civil servants might have a problem with taking orders from a woman.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
Well given previous ones that I am aware of , SARS, CJD , etc etc they rarely if ever match the hype, EBOLA may be the only one but it was confined to a few African countries so caused little fuss here as we get little to nothing news wise from there.
Burgon on Marr now saying Socialism was not the reason for Labour's defeat, the Brexit issue being the change from 2017 to 2019 and the party should keep its Socialist policies and not triangulate back to power
The unreconstructed, diehard, hard left is going to be a real help to Starmer if he wins. The more they attack him, the better. It will alienate Labour members and demonstrate to the wider public that Labour is under new management.
it will also tell voters there is a really nasty element within Labour.. happy days
It's not who is in the party, it is who is control. The Tories eventually won a GE again once it convinced the public the "nasty party" element was no longer holding the reins. The "nasties" never went away (other than in and out of UKIP for a while) as we now know.
I think "tricked" or "fooled" would be more appropriate than convinced the nasties were gone, they were just in sheep's clothing
I wonder what evidence Sir Philip Rutnam has of bullying. And how much it will be considered worth paying for it not to be aired in public proceedings.
I suspect it is more a case of:
"Minister, there is a way of doing things in the Home Office. It has served us for generations. And what you are suggesting - well, it just isn't done...."
"Well, it fookin' is now! Do as you're told!"
*Collapse in a fit of the vapours, followed by a call to a chum at the Beeb for live coverage of your resignation alleging bullying....*
Much as you would like to think otherwise, there is always the niggling doubt that some career civil servants might have a problem with taking orders from a woman.
And a woman of Asian heritage at that.....
*more fits of the vapours....*
Great claims require great evidence. A very senior civil servant will know that. He obviously thinks he has ample evidence.
As @cyclefree says, there will almost certainly be a pay-off of an undisclosed amount.
HYUFD you may well be correct, BUT edmundintokyo initially put an argument forward which you challenged by arguing there have been no deaths on UK soil and fewer cases. He put a counter argument to you as to why he thought that argument was flawed. You repeat your argument using different words and DO NOT respond to his argument.
His comment 'I suppose I'm wasting my time' is apt. You never respond to point with a counter argument. Repeating what you said or saying something unrelated to the argument is not a logical response and therefore not a valid counter argument. This is what what sent IanB2 bonkers sometime ago.
It is easy to check if your argument is logical. Replace the statement with a notation and convert it into logical format. It removes the subjectivity of your and Edmunds opinion .
I am not saying you are wrong in your original statement. You may be right and a logical argument can be made. But you aren't making it and you rarely do.
This isn't a presentation issue or an opinion. As someone who has studied logic it is very frustrating to see. We can differ in opinion on stuff and on many things there is no provable right answer, but the argument needs to follow logic rules which are a matter of mathematical fact.
Except clearly we are not waiting until it is too late, as confirmed by the fact our coronavirus testing rate is also well above average, there is nothing remotely illogical about that and I will stick to my guns
HYUFD you are missing the point. I am not saying you are wrong. You may well be completely correct. I don't know. It is a matter of opinion.
As stated earlier try using notation to remove the subjectivity of the argument. Here goes:
ET says 'A' HYUFD say 'B' which implies 'Not A' ET says 'C' does not imply 'B' which therefore implies 'Not A' is not necessarily True
So far a logical argument between the tow of you, but now
HYUFD says 'B' which implies 'Not A' using different words.
So you haven't responded to ET last opinion at all but repeated your previous opinion. This is no longer a logical argument but has gone circular. Hence I assume ET dropping out and his comment prior to that of him wasting his time.
You are both entitled to your different opinions and having a logical argument about them and you you may be correct, but you don't argue it logically.
Most of the testing for COVID-19 is going to reveal common cold/flu. We have to minimise the opportunities for people thinking they might have the big bad one, by reducing their chance to catch coughs and colds and fevers.
I honestly reckon that a thread on pb.com would flesh out an effective strategy at minimising the spread in a few hours. Sadly, it is in the hands of government....
We have to balance minimising the spread with ensuring life goes on as normal while remembering whatever we do this is now in the wild in much of the world.
We could halt the spread by cancelling all mass transit, all mass gatherings, telling everyone to work from home, shutting down shops, shutting down hospitals, cancelling delivery services, shutting airports etc and telling everyone to survive at home until this blows over. Which could be months or years from now by which point the country would be dead from those restrictions.
We can't just curl in a ball and wait for this to go away before continuing with our lives. Track, trace, quarantine and treatment as the NHS and government are doing is working. If the situation changes so should our response but don't stop doing what is working for now.
A: GERS is produced by Scottish Government statisticians. It is designated as a National Statistics product, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the UK Statistics Authority as being produced in line with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. This means the statistics have been found to meet user needs, to be methodologically sound, explained well and produced free of political interference.'
You stupid halfwit , they have to use the fake made up Westminster numbers which are as bent as the Tories. There are 167 estimates in there and fact they have Scotland as responsible for about 70% of UK borrowing shows how bent they are. I can safely say without even knowing you that you are a stupid unthinking unionist halfwit who is unable to have an original thought , run off back to the flock.
Philip, get a grip, how do you explain England with 85% of the population borrowing money and trying to pretend that almost 70% of it is borrowed for Scotland with less than 10% of the population. Not even a cretin would try to promote that one.
We know that spending per capita is higher in Scotland. At an extreme edge case [ignoring NI and Wales] it would be possible to have Scotland responsible for 100% of the borrowing and England 0%. Equally at an extreme edge case [ignoring NI and Wales] it would also be possible to have England responsible for 100% of the borrowing and Scotland 0%.
What we know is the numbers are well fudged and that almost all spending is in the south of England. No matter how you dress it up , Scotland does not borrow a penny , England via Westminster borrows all the money , squanders it on itself and then tries to say it was all spent on Scotland. It is complete bollox. Why don't you explain to me why 70% of the UK borrowing is said to be spent in Scotland, cite examples etc that you can show are real and I don't mean 12% of Crossrail or suchlike.
A friend in Guayacuil, Ecuador, told me yesterday that the only people out and about in that city were stocking up on food and medicine in preparation for hunkering down. The total number of cases reported in Ecuador at that time was one.
In Britain, a change will occur when figures such as newsreaders, politicians, and members of the royal family (if any royals remain in the country) start wearing masks in public. Such symbolism is extremely powerful. For obvious reasons, some public figures may be instructed to hold back until masks are near-universally available. Whether they will be able to hold ranks is unclear.
Looking at the state of many of their coupons I thought a good whack of them were already wearing masks and had just got Halloween dates mixed up.
When are we expecting the full-fat Covid-19 epidemic to hit? Is there a timescale for these things?
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
With proper containment I doubt it.
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
Why are you worried about the US? Leave it to the professionals in the US to worry about, just as you'd leave the worrying about drowning to lifeguards.
Way to miss the point!
The USA's absence of lifeguards (to follow the analogy) is the problem.
Looking forward to reading your wisdom on this subject when just a few days ago it was something you were entirely unconcerned about. Now you have 'biggest worries'. Lol.
Lot's of experts with expertise on everything on pb.
I never said I am "entirely unconcerned", I said its right to take it seriously but wrong to panic. Just as the WHO is saying.
I am happy to have a go at both extremes. Panicking headless chickens wanting to shut the country down are not right, nor are ignorant governments refusing to test their citizens for the disease nor tracking its spread.
I agree with you. I think Hancock would too.
I just watched a recording of the Marr show and I thought Hancock has got it just right, a phased approach relying on scientific evidence and advice, recognising the political trade off between economic disruption and health, leaving decisions on delaying elective surgery to clinicians not politicians etc. I was impressed.
I wonder what evidence Sir Philip Rutnam has of bullying. And how much it will be considered worth paying for it not to be aired in public proceedings.
I suspect it is more a case of:
"Minister, there is a way of doing things in the Home Office. It has served us for generations. And what you are suggesting - well, it just isn't done...."
"Well, it fookin' is now! Do as you're told!"
*Collapse in a fit of the vapours, followed by a call to a chum at the Beeb for live coverage of your resignation alleging bullying....*
Much as you would like to think otherwise, there is always the niggling doubt that some career civil servants might have a problem with taking orders from a woman.
And a woman of Asian heritage at that.....
*more fits of the vapours....*
Great claims require great evidence. A very senior civil servant will know that. He obviously thinks he has ample evidence.
As @cyclefree says, there will almost certainly be a pay-off of an undisclosed amount.
Given that the maximum award at an employment tribunal is around £100k, and he was likely on six months’ notice and a £200k salary anyway, why would he want to go down the tribunal route if not to make a point of airing everything in public?
(Yes, I agree with you, it’ll probably get dropped eventually, such personality clashes among senior managers are rarely only the fault of one side or the other).
I wonder what evidence Sir Philip Rutnam has of bullying. And how much it will be considered worth paying for it not to be aired in public proceedings.
Why pay a penny? Does anyone think Priti Patel is going to be let go over this? We're not running a May-style 'The Home Secretary's cat sneezed so she must resign' Government any more...
You might want to acquaint yourself with why Patel was sacked by Mrs May. What she did was rather more serious than your rather frivolous cat-sneezing comment implies.
The bullying allegations, if true, are serious. If true.
The rather more serious, to my mind anyway, allegation which has surfaced in the press, though interestingly not in the Rutnam statement yesterday, is the suggestion that the Minister may have asked her civil servants to carry out illegal actions. Again, we don’t know whether this is true.
The practical reason for reaching a settlement is that fighting such cases takes up a lot of time, discovery and statements risk revealing all sorts of stuff which may prove problematic and the last thing anyone sensible should want is Ministers and civil servants appearing in court. At a time when the Home Office has - and will have - plenty on its hands, far better to reach a settlement.
NHS gender clinic 'should have challenged me more' over transition
A 23-year-old woman who is taking legal action against an NHS gender clinic says she should have been challenged more by medical staff over her decision to transition to a male as a teenager.
A judge gave the go-ahead this week for a full hearing of the case against the Tavistock and Portman NHS Trust.
Lawyers will argue children cannot give informed consent to treatment delaying puberty or helping them to transition.
And yet the more extreme advocates of transgender rights argue that they can and must be given the freedom to make their own choices at whatever age or state of maturity
Actions have consequences. It shouldn’t be a one way bet
Also should not be at the expense of the majority, too many minority groups think it is their god given right to get preferential treatment and that their rights are more important than those of the majority.
Comments
I don't see anyway we avoid the economic and social consequences of this so we should take the action now to try and mitigate the human cost.
I tend to buy fiction in e-book format, and history in physical copies.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I guess this is kind of a smart move rhetorically, because it's much easier to prove the existence of climate change to someone who wasn't sure it was real than it is to establish through experience the a priori concepts and principles of understanding.
We also can’t isolate ourselves as a country to the virus. There might be little point to everyone being confined to their houses for 3 weeks, for example.
But then there's South Korea (although their testing regime is exemplary), Iran, Italy and sad to say USA....
His comment 'I suppose I'm wasting my time' is apt. You never respond to point with a counter argument. Repeating what you said or saying something unrelated to the argument is not a logical response and therefore not a valid counter argument. This is what what sent IanB2 bonkers sometime ago.
It is easy to check if your argument is logical. Replace the statement with a notation and convert it into logical format. It removes the subjectivity of your and Edmunds opinion .
I am not saying you are wrong in your original statement. You may be right and a logical argument can be made. But you aren't making it and you rarely do.
This isn't a presentation issue or an opinion. As someone who has studied logic it is very frustrating to see. We can differ in opinion on stuff and on many things there is no provable right answer, but the argument needs to follow logic rules which are a matter of mathematical fact.
They won’t acknowledge it until, as with Iran, people start turning up infected in the Gulf states where officials are looking out for people with symptoms.
Toys and clothes are much more gendered in their marketing that they were in the Seventies. There has always been some differentiation, but increasingly rigidly and damagingly so.
Boys who like sparkly pink unicorns and My Little Pony may well be just that, not trapped in the wrong body.
These are very low cost, because a lot of people could go ahead and work from home fine if they didn't feel like they were being melodramatic for doing it, and if the thing carries on spreading as expected it'll have that effect on event attendance anyway, so it's better to scale stuff back sooner rather than later.
Prove me wrong!
As a complete layman who knows absolutely nothing about the subject, I am struck not by how many cases are so far being reported here and in the rest of Europe, but how few. This has been a rolling story for a couple of months now. At some point the tidal wave is surely going to hit, isn't it?
My biggest worry is the USA which has completely the wrong priorities atm, but a shock may cause them to start testing and containing properly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_historical_sources_for_pink_and_blue_as_gender_signifiers
The American mobile phone giant Verizon ran this advert a couple of years ago.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNcdE57UrBY
20,000 Watford fans who were at Vicarage Road yesterday evening will disagree with you though!
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1233997776993869824?s=20
Would be interested in seeing if football attendances we’re down yesterday in UK
Sanders +1350
Biden +1000
Bloomberg -1100
Pete/Clinton -200 each or so
The book has at least a grand of equity
"Do I have to travel to that meeting?
Can the phone/Skype do the job instead?
How many people really need to attend that meeting? Reduce the attendees to a bare minimum.
And don't shake hands if you do meet.
If you have any potential symptoms - cough, cold, fever - then don't be a hero and go into work regardless. Do not travel at all.
Stay home until the symptoms have gone. And then a day or two more to be sure. They will not be seen as valid grounds for dismissal if you inform your employer what you are doing and why."
The USA's absence of lifeguards (to follow the analogy) is the problem.
And the government will be most likely be recommending it anyhow like 2 or 3 weeks from now, so what's the point in waiting?
What I actually said is that the people at the frontline need to be very concerned and doing their jobs, but the people who aren't at the minute should not panic. Then I used the water analogy - someone who is nowhere near the water and has no intention of going into the water any time soon won't be concerned about drowning but a lifeguard (and anyone who is in water) needs to be.
At the minute the water isn't here yet. We need to be sensible if we get near the water but those whose job it is to be at the frontline have to be up to the job.
That was my point which Gideon missed.
Lot's of experts with expertise on everything on pb.
I honestly reckon that a thread on pb.com would flesh out an effective strategy at minimising the spread in a few hours. Sadly, it is in the hands of government....
We know that spending per capita is higher in Scotland. At an extreme edge case [ignoring NI and Wales] it would be possible to have Scotland responsible for 100% of the borrowing and England 0%. Equally at an extreme edge case [ignoring NI and Wales] it would also be possible to have England responsible for 100% of the borrowing and Scotland 0%.
Spaniards go skiing in Italy than Brits? Or is it because Spain is nominally Roman Catholic?
I am happy to have a go at both extremes. Panicking headless chickens wanting to shut the country down are not right, nor are ignorant governments refusing to test their citizens for the disease nor tracking its spread.
Theresa if it is a girl.
Jeremy if it is a boy.
Actions have consequences. It shouldn’t be a one way bet
"Minister, there is a way of doing things in the Home Office. It has served us for generations. And what you are suggesting - well, it just isn't done...."
"Well, it fookin' is now! Do as you're told!"
*Collapse in a fit of the vapours, followed by a call to a chum at the Beeb for live coverage of your resignation alleging bullying....*
Much as you would like to think otherwise, there is always the niggling doubt that some career civil servants might have a problem with taking orders from a woman.
And a woman of Asian heritage at that.....
*more fits of the vapours....*
However, from it a really disturbing conclusion can be made: 6 weeks of undetected spreading in Washington State, probably hundreds of cases.
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970442152472577
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233970559257468928
https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1233975581974228994
As @cyclefree says, there will almost certainly be a pay-off of an undisclosed amount.
As stated earlier try using notation to remove the subjectivity of the argument. Here goes:
ET says 'A'
HYUFD say 'B' which implies 'Not A'
ET says 'C' does not imply 'B' which therefore implies 'Not A' is not necessarily True
So far a logical argument between the tow of you, but now
HYUFD says 'B' which implies 'Not A' using different words.
So you haven't responded to ET last opinion at all but repeated your previous opinion. This is no longer a logical argument but has gone circular. Hence I assume ET dropping out and his comment prior to that of him wasting his time.
You are both entitled to your different opinions and having a logical argument about them and you you may be correct, but you don't argue it logically.
We could halt the spread by cancelling all mass transit, all mass gatherings, telling everyone to work from home, shutting down shops, shutting down hospitals, cancelling delivery services, shutting airports etc and telling everyone to survive at home until this blows over. Which could be months or years from now by which point the country would be dead from those restrictions.
We can't just curl in a ball and wait for this to go away before continuing with our lives. Track, trace, quarantine and treatment as the NHS and government are doing is working. If the situation changes so should our response but don't stop doing what is working for now.
I just watched a recording of the Marr show and I thought Hancock has got it just right, a phased approach relying on scientific evidence and advice, recognising the political trade off between economic disruption and health, leaving decisions on delaying elective surgery to clinicians not politicians etc. I was impressed.
(Yes, I agree with you, it’ll probably get dropped eventually, such personality clashes among senior managers are rarely only the fault of one side or the other).
The bullying allegations, if true, are serious. If true.
The rather more serious, to my mind anyway, allegation which has surfaced in the press, though interestingly not in the Rutnam statement yesterday, is the suggestion that the Minister may have asked her civil servants to carry out illegal actions. Again, we don’t know whether this is true.
The practical reason for reaching a settlement is that fighting such cases takes up a lot of time, discovery and statements risk revealing all sorts of stuff which may prove problematic and the last thing anyone sensible should want is Ministers and civil servants appearing in court. At a time when the Home Office has - and will have - plenty on its hands, far better to reach a settlement.