Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
I really hope that this post ages well.
Even if a quarter of Europe's population died of coronavirus that would still be less than the number that died of black death in the middle ages and panic still would not help, basic hygiene, sanitation and strict quarantine would
Whilst I admire your sang-froid in the face of comparisons with the Black Death, surely the trouble, from your point of view, is that it would disproportionately wipe out elderly, and therefore Tory, voters.
It would spread most in left leaning urban centres
So it could infect everyone in Parliament, the Civil Service and the Financial world, since London is a left leaning urban centre.
And don't forget you have to canvass ang campaign for the Local Elections, how many people would you meet and shake hands along the way ?
I don't shake hands canvassing and if it was a major outbreak by then it would be leaflets only
In reality, isn't it likely to infect everybody over time?
Some will be more susceptible than others - either due to genetics or underlying health issues, or a bit of both.
.... What an expense of spirit in a waste of shame....
A wonderful, wonderful sonnet.
My son is sitting his higher English in a couple of months. He is at private school but at no point in his 5 years of secondary education has he studied a Shakespeare play or sonnet. Last year they were required to “analyse” the doggerel of Jackie Kay, friend of the First Minister. It’s really appalling. It’s not an education, it’s dogma.
This Kay? Never heard of her, until five minutes ago, when this tweet arrived and then you posted:
It beggars belief that the Democrat Party is incapable of nominating a sane, decent younger person who can then defeat a demented fool like Trump,
American politics is diseased.
They don't have a "sane, decent younger person".
To become President is both easier and more difficult than PM.
It takes years to find a person of actual talent and ideas and organise a political operation of major size to support him, Trump took 36 years from the moment he decided he wanted the job until he got it.
And luck, if Lehman Brothers hadn't collapsed Obama wouldn't have been President.
If the Global Financial Crisis hadn't happened, the whole world would be different.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
This is not the Flu. The rate of transmission is perhaps twice that of flu, and the mortality probably 10 times.
It beggars belief that the Democrat Party is incapable of nominating a sane, decent younger person who can then defeat a demented fool like Trump,
American politics is diseased.
They don't have a "sane, decent younger person".
To become President is both easier and more difficult than PM.
It takes years to find a person of actual talent and ideas and organise a political operation of major size to support him, Trump took 36 years from the moment he decided he wanted the job until he got it.
And luck, if Lehman Brothers hadn't collapsed Obama wouldn't have been President.
If the Global Financial Crisis hadn't happened, the whole world would be different.
Many were increasingly of the opinion that they’d all made a big mistake in coming down from the trees in the first place. And some said that even the trees had been a bad move, and that no one should ever have left the oceans.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
This is not the Flu. The rate of transmission is perhaps twice that of flu, and the mortality probably 10 times.
I am not saying flu is not bad, indeed it has been the main reason that my hospital has had no beds for months, just saying that this coronavirus is significantly worse.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
This is not the Flu. The rate of transmission is perhaps twice that of flu, and the mortality probably 10 times.
I feel the most likely path is none of those. Bernie wins New Hampshire with Pete second and Warren third. Nevada is Bernie then Warren. South Carolina is Biden by a mile. Klobuchar drops out but everyone else stays in. Who gets the nomination then?
About two months ago, I forecast:
Iowa: Buttigieg NH: Sanders Nevada: Warren South Carolina: Biden
If Biden is fourth or fifth in both New Hampshire and Nevada, then I can't see him winning South Carolina, unless it's an incredibly split vote. He will have demonstrated, after the first three states, a complete inability to attract and excite Democrats. He's already strapped for cash, and I see the taps being turned off if he keep producing unimpressive results.
Sanders is in with a shot by dint of a fractured opposition. If he's polling 30% consistently, and there are lots of players who are still in the game on 13-15%, then he might well get close to half the delegates given how they're allocated.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
Americans who are critical of the country and the state of politics still tend to act as though government was essentially perfected when the Constituion was ratified, and that all it needs is either a few tweaks, or better adherence to the rules.
That is true in my experience of Americans, which is fairly considerable. The quote from Bloomberg in the header is a good example. American Presidents who were corrupt and/or didn't respect the limits of their office have been much more common than those who did.
But most Americans of my acquaintance tend to idolise their Constitution to an extent not seen in any other democracy. The systemic and demographic sources of corruption tend to elude them. Though, as ever, there are plenty of exceptions to that generalisation.
(And, after all, we're far from perfect in that respect ourselves).
I had meetings with 2 actuaries today selecting which one would take over the pension administration. My suggestion that the Coronavirus was an actuarial dream didn’t go down quite as well as I’d hoped.
You have to bear in mind the old adage that actuaries are professionals who switched career because they found accountancy too exciting.
It beggars belief that the Democrat Party is incapable of nominating a sane, decent younger person who can then defeat a demented fool like Trump,
American politics is diseased.
They don't have a "sane, decent younger person".
To become President is both easier and more difficult than PM.
It takes years to find a person of actual talent and ideas and organise a political operation of major size to support him, Trump took 36 years from the moment he decided he wanted the job until he got it.
And luck, if Lehman Brothers hadn't collapsed Obama wouldn't have been President.
If the Global Financial Crisis hadn't happened, the whole world would be different.
It was the timing. Had it happened a few months earlier or later it would have changed the election result.
Same with this epidemic, it could affect directly the Primaries and the Presidential Election, though in what way it's unknown.
The whole world will be scarred and different but no one knows how it will look and for how long.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
Apart from stockpiling supplies, containing and contact tracing, there is little else possible at this stage. There simply is a limit to what government can do.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
It beggars belief that the Democrat Party is incapable of nominating a sane, decent younger person who can then defeat a demented fool like Trump,
American politics is diseased.
They don't have a "sane, decent younger person".
To become President is both easier and more difficult than PM.
It takes years to find a person of actual talent and ideas and organise a political operation of major size to support him, Trump took 36 years from the moment he decided he wanted the job until he got it.
And luck, if Lehman Brothers hadn't collapsed Obama wouldn't have been President.
If the Global Financial Crisis hadn't happened, the whole world would be different.
It was the timing. Had it happened a few months earlier or later it would have changed the election result.
Same with this epidemic, it could affect directly the Primaries and the Presidential Election, though in what way it's unknown.
The whole world will be scarred and different but no one knows how it will look and for how long.
That's your opinion. As it's a counterfactual, it's rather hard to prove one way or another.
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
From a piece by the Telegraph's Global Health Security Editor:
"As the risk of coronavirus increases, the government is urging local authorities and others to put in place contingency plans to mitigate its potential impact (...)
Scientific modelling estimates that the UK 'could experience up to 750,000 additional deaths over the course of a pandemic', say the government’s planning documents.
'These figures might be expected to be reduced by the impact of countermeasures, but the effectiveness of such mitigation is not certain', it adds.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
From a piece by the Telegraph's Global Health Security Editor:
"As the risk of coronavirus increases, the government is urging local authorities and others to put in place contingency plans to mitigate its potential impact (...)
Scientific modelling estimates that the UK 'could experience up to 750,000 additional deaths over the course of a pandemic', say the government’s planning documents.
'These figures might be expected to be reduced by the impact of countermeasures, but the effectiveness of such mitigation is not certain', it adds.
Taking account of this, local planners have been set the target of preparing to extend capacity on a 'precautionary but reasonably practicable basis', and aim to cope with a population mortality rate of up to 210,000 to 315,000 additional deaths, possibly over as little as a 15-week period and perhaps half of these over 3 weeks at the height of the outbreak."
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
I had meetings with 2 actuaries today selecting which one would take over the pension administration. My suggestion that the Coronavirus was an actuarial dream didn’t go down quite as well as I’d hoped.
You have to bear in mind the old adage that actuaries are professionals who switched career because they found accountancy too exciting.
You know how you spell "statistician"?
F,a,i,l,e,d,a,c,t,u,a,r,y!
How do you identify an extrovert actuary?
He stares at *your* shoes!
The old ones are, indeed, the best.
I told one of my firm's actuarial students the joke about the difference between the British and the Sicilian actuary this morning (The former can tell you how many people will die next year; the latter can tell you their names). Apparently she'd not heard it before. I felt very old.
But to the original point, yes the coronavirus is a huge opportunity, if not exactly "exciting" for us actuaries. We currently have precisely one data point to gauge the impact of global pandemic disaster scenarios, and it's corrupted by WW1. Some within the profession are quite sensitive to the fact that our data points tend to be other's personal tragedies; others, less so.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1986
Would you like to give us your opinion of what they mean?
Well, firstly the Dems need to pick KLOBUCHAR. With the caveat that it seems really helpful to your favourability ratings if Republicans don't know who you are, and it'll be hard to carry that advantage all the way to a general election.
However the other big thing is that all the well-known Dems are like 5% underwater. That's not *all* that much worse than Trump who tends to be like -10% to -12%, so if the Dems were relying on that number to counter the other pro-reelection indicators like a strong economy, maybe they're not going to have a fun November.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
(a) Everyone in China wearing a face mask. (b) Experts say face masks don't help to stop the virus.
In ideal conditions they would i.e. why hospitals use them.
Apparently it is a combination of people reusing face masks many times and that they don't use them correctly / put their pudgy digits in their noses / mouths / etc and then go to mess with their mask again.
(a) Everyone in China wearing a face mask. (b) Experts say face masks don't help to stop the virus.
I noted a study a couple of days back which demonstrated that enough people washing hands regularly make a very significant difference to lowering the rates of transmission. Which seems to hold true for quite a wide variation in the infectivity of a virus.
(a) Everyone in China wearing a face mask. (b) Experts say face masks don't help to stop the virus.
As a Unicharm shareholder I would like to point out that these so-called experts have a vested interest in spreading the disease so they get more research grants (am I doing this right?)
(a) Everyone in China wearing a face mask. (b) Experts say face masks don't help to stop the virus.
In ideal conditions they would i.e. why hospitals use them.
Apparently it is a combination of people reusing face masks many times and that they don't use them correctly / put their pudgy digits in their noses / mouths / etc and then go to mess with their mask again.
They are more effective at preventing the wearer passing on their own infection than providing the wearer with protection.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
(a) Everyone in China wearing a face mask. (b) Experts say face masks don't help to stop the virus.
In ideal conditions they would i.e. why hospitals use them.
Apparently it is a combination of people reusing face masks many times and that they don't use them correctly / put their pudgy digits in their noses / mouths / etc and then go to mess with their mask again.
They are more effective at preventing the wearer passing on their own infection than providing the wearer with protection.
Probably true but how do you tell which you are? Wearing one "unnecessarily" is harmless.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
(a) Everyone in China wearing a face mask. (b) Experts say face masks don't help to stop the virus.
In ideal conditions they would i.e. why hospitals use them.
Apparently it is a combination of people reusing face masks many times and that they don't use them correctly / put their pudgy digits in their noses / mouths / etc and then go to mess with their mask again.
They are more effective at preventing the wearer passing on their own infection than providing the wearer with protection.
Probably true but how do you tell which you are? Wearing one "unnecessarily" is harmless.
Indeed, and I wouldn’t discourage anyone from wearing one. A wide appreciation of the effectiveness would cut down on the panic buying though.
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
Panic never helps anything, it just makes it worse.
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
Nor is a death rate of about 2% from a virus that shows every sign of becoming as virulent as the common cold. But if it does prove to be as uncontainable as it seems to, such that we're all eventually exposed to it, it would still mean something in the order of 1.5 million deaths in the UK alone.
Flu kills people every day, coronavirus or not and again running around like headless chickens panicking remains the worst possible reaction and will just spread it further
If the Chinese are telling the truth it would still lead to 13 by-elections this year (2% of 650 MP's).
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
There were over 20 by elections in 1945, 1951 and 1983
If we have a pandemic then byelections will be the least of our worries!
Indeed. It's rather endearing that PB's reaction to a possible pandemic is to ponder the possible impact on the odds of byelections...
How can I convince HYUFD that the coronavirus is something bad ? I'm running out of ideas.
When did I say it was good? However there is a difference between that and running around like a headless chicken about a virus that has killed less than 2% of 0.1% of a large province in China
It was reported that Labour’s official inquiry “exonerated” Jeremy Corbyn from any blame for the election result. I can only assume this was a compassionate gesture for an already-outgoing septuagenarian leader, because no serious reading of the evidence could reach such a verdict. “I did not want Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister” topped the list for Labour defectors when we asked their reasons for switching whether they went to the Tories or the Lib Dems, to another party, or stayed at home. Though a few saw good intentions, former Labour voters in our groups lamented what they saw as his weakness, indecision, lack of patriotism, apparent terrorist sympathies, failure to deal with antisemitism, outdated and excessively left-wing worldview, and obvious unsuitability to lead the country.
Ashcroft's polling suggests that while all the leadership candidates are trying to convince the membership they are as left wing as Jezza, the public see excessive left-wingery as outdated.
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
An official infection rate of less than 0.1%
And there was an official rate of 0% at the beginning of November. What’s your point ?
Still no reason to run round like a headless chicken
I don't think that anyone is suggesting that. However it is a good reminder to stock up on a few things that you may need just in case you need to isolate yourself for a bit. Personally I've stocked up on tins of things like tuna, soup, sweetcorn etc that are really long dated, and I'd consume before the best before anyway if I ate them at my current rate. About a month's worth, but could be rationed to 3 or so. Checked and I have enough fire/heat making stuff, while the odds of needing any of it is low, for £50-75 it's not exactly a big investment, especially if you'd consume all the stuff anyway. For those in high risk demographics it's probably a good idea.
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
An official infection rate of less than 0.1%
And there was an official rate of 0% at the beginning of November. What’s your point ?
Still no reason to run round like a headless chicken
You possibly have a point there. Now that you have written "running around like headless chicken" so often, could you please be so kind and explain which kind of public health policy proposal exactly would be one that would amount to "running around like headless chicken" ?
Ashcroft's polling suggests that while all the leadership candidates are trying to convince the membership they are as left wing as Jezza, the public see excessive left-wingery as outdated.
That seems fair but who within Labour has the nous to spot it and the ability to effect change?
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
An official infection rate of less than 0.1%
And there was an official rate of 0% at the beginning of November. What’s your point ?
Still no reason to run round like a headless chicken
I don't think that anyone is suggesting that. However it is a good reminder to stock up on a few things that you may need just in case you need to isolate yourself for a bit. Personally I've stocked up on tins of things like tuna, soup, sweetcorn etc that are really long dated, and I'd consume before the best before anyway if I ate them at my current rate. About a month's worth, but could be rationed to 3 or so. Checked and I have enough fire/heat making stuff, while the odds of needing any of it is low, for £50-75 it's not exactly a big investment, especially if you'd consume all the stuff anyway. For those in high risk demographics it's probably a good idea.
I reckon you might be one of the headless chickens referred to.
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
An official infection rate of less than 0.1%
And there was an official rate of 0% at the beginning of November. What’s your point ?
Still no reason to run round like a headless chicken
You possibly have a point there. Now that you have written "running around like headless chicken" so often, could you please be so kind and explain which kind of public health policy proposal exactly would be one that would amount to "running around like headless chicken" ?
It was a reaction to an earlier comment 'time to panic' not a public health policy
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
An official infection rate of less than 0.1%
And there was an official rate of 0% at the beginning of November. What’s your point ?
Still no reason to run round like a headless chicken
You possibly have a point there. Now that you have written "running around like headless chicken" so often, could you please be so kind and explain which kind of public health policy proposal exactly would be one that would amount to "running around like headless chicken" ?
Ashcroft's polling suggests that while all the leadership candidates are trying to convince the membership they are as left wing as Jezza, the public see excessive left-wingery as outdated.
That seems fair but who within Labour has the nous to spot it and the ability to effect change?
Interesting that the word voters most chose to describe Starmer is competent, while Long Bailey got out of touch, Nandy out of her depth (albeit likeable a close second) and Thornberry arrogant.
Starmer came across closest to Remain and LD voters, Long Bailey to existing Labour voters and Nandy to Labour to Conservative switchers and Leavers
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
An official infection rate of less than 0.1%
And there was an official rate of 0% at the beginning of November. What’s your point ?
Still no reason to run round like a headless chicken
I don't think that anyone is suggesting that. However it is a good reminder to stock up on a few things that you may need just in case you need to isolate yourself for a bit. Personally I've stocked up on tins of things like tuna, soup, sweetcorn etc that are really long dated, and I'd consume before the best before anyway if I ate them at my current rate. About a month's worth, but could be rationed to 3 or so. Checked and I have enough fire/heat making stuff, while the odds of needing any of it is low, for £50-75 it's not exactly a big investment, especially if you'd consume all the stuff anyway. For those in high risk demographics it's probably a good idea.
I reckon you might be one of the headless chickens referred to.
I guess Britain doesn't have a lot of natural disasters but in most places it's considered a good idea to have a couple of weeks worth of long-dated essentials stocked up in case everything goes to shit for whatever reason.
That's the good thing about panicking over Coronavirus: A lot of the stuff you'd do to prevent that also works against less exotic threats.
Ashcroft's polling suggests that while all the leadership candidates are trying to convince the membership they are as left wing as Jezza, the public see excessive left-wingery as outdated.
That seems fair but who within Labour has the nous to spot it and the ability to effect change?
Interesting that the word voters most chose to describe Starmer is competent, while Long Bailey got out of touch, Nandy out of her depth (albeit likeable a close second) and Thornberry arrogant
So Labour is doomed, continuing the Dad's Army nods.
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
An official infection rate of less than 0.1%
And there was an official rate of 0% at the beginning of November. What’s your point ?
Still no reason to run round like a headless chicken
I don't think that anyone is suggesting that. However it is a good reminder to stock up on a few things that you may need just in case you need to isolate yourself for a bit. Personally I've stocked up on tins of things like tuna, soup, sweetcorn etc that are really long dated, and I'd consume before the best before anyway if I ate them at my current rate. About a month's worth, but could be rationed to 3 or so. Checked and I have enough fire/heat making stuff, while the odds of needing any of it is low, for £50-75 it's not exactly a big investment, especially if you'd consume all the stuff anyway. For those in high risk demographics it's probably a good idea.
I reckon you might be one of the headless chickens referred to.
If making sure that if something bad happens I would be able to survive for a month or so without outside assistance, then I am a 'headless chicken' I suppose.
In the UK we're exceptionally unlikely to to need to ever have to survive without society for a few days, but it never harms to be prepared, and it's cost neutral preparation as well, the stuff I bought will get consumed before their (long dated) expiry, and I already had enough wood and charcoal for the fire/bbq anyway.
The range of potential situations where people would need to be self sufficient for 1-4 weeks for city people is quite different (it's basically just where self quarantine is needed), whereas where I live I've had a week without being able to come/go due to snow, and two occasions of electricity almost being taken out by flooding in the past decade. So in the 99% chance of coronavirus being a damp squib, it's not like I've lost anything by pre-purchasing 50 odd tins of stuff.
Singapore - highest number of cases outside mainland China:
SINGAPORE - Several of the locally infected patients with no known links had seen a doctor two or three times before they were sent to hospital.
This is because the illness generally starts mild with non-specific symptoms such as cough, sore throat, slight fever and feeling tired, said Professor Leo Yee Sin, executive director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID).
These are symptoms tens of thousands of people suffer from every day in Singapore alone, she added.
Singapore - highest number of cases outside mainland China:
SINGAPORE - Several of the locally infected patients with no known links had seen a doctor two or three times before they were sent to hospital.
This is because the illness generally starts mild with non-specific symptoms such as cough, sore throat, slight fever and feeling tired, said Professor Leo Yee Sin, executive director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID).
These are symptoms tens of thousands of people suffer from every day in Singapore alone, she added.
The same thing happened with the Wuhan tour group bus guide in Japan. She went to see the doctor, he told her to go home and see how it went, she went back a few days later with worse symptoms and got sent home again, then finally went to a different hospital for another opinion and got tested for it and diagnosed. I'm not even sure she'd have been diagnosed then if the driver of the bus hadn't been all over the news.
Yikes - labour members blaming brexit (not unreasonably) but also the unfair media, voters believing lies and voters not understanding things (that is, being stupid) and voters being bigots.
Singapore - highest number of cases outside mainland China:
SINGAPORE - Several of the locally infected patients with no known links had seen a doctor two or three times before they were sent to hospital.
This is because the illness generally starts mild with non-specific symptoms such as cough, sore throat, slight fever and feeling tired, said Professor Leo Yee Sin, executive director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID).
These are symptoms tens of thousands of people suffer from every day in Singapore alone, she added.
The same thing happened with the Wuhan tour group bus guide in Japan. She went to see the doctor, he told her to go home and see how it went, she went back a few days later with worse symptoms and got sent home again, then finally went to a different hospital for another opinion and got tested for it and diagnosed. I'm not even sure she'd have been diagnosed then if the driver of the bus hadn't been all over the news.
There is a consistent pattern across most of the Singapore patients - typically two visits to doctors before going to a hospital where they are held to be assessed. So thats lots of doctors and lots of doctor waiting rooms.....I suspect the advice needs to be modified - since most upper respiratory illnesses are caused by viruses anyway (about which the doctor can do little the patient can't do themselves) we should probably tell people with colds to stay away unless symptoms turn serious - then self quarantine and ask for assessment - as it is most patients are spending their time unintentionally spreading the virus before they get diagnosed.
Yikes - labour members blaming brexit (not unreasonably) but also the unfair media, voters believing lies and voters not understanding things (that is, being stupid) and voters being bigots.
Such deep reflection.
Yeah, the Deplorables just need to shut up and learn how to think correctly.
Chances of any of the leadership candidates actually listening to what the Evil Tory Ashcroft voters who deserted them had to say??
Comments
Some will be more susceptible than others - either due to genetics or underlying health issues, or a bit of both.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9b7wmRsy9g
(158/160 Filled)
SF: 37
FF: 36
FG: 35
IND: 19
GRN: 12
LAB: 6
SD: 6
PBP: 5
AON: 1
I4C: 1
I had FF at 38 because they should get the last two.
I am not saying flu is not bad, indeed it has been the main reason that my hospital has had no beds for months, just saying that this coronavirus is significantly worse.
Looks like being an FF/SF/Green Govt
2% mortality would be 160m globally.
Iowa: Buttigieg
NH: Sanders
Nevada: Warren
South Carolina: Biden
If Biden is fourth or fifth in both New Hampshire and Nevada, then I can't see him winning South Carolina, unless it's an incredibly split vote. He will have demonstrated, after the first three states, a complete inability to attract and excite Democrats. He's already strapped for cash, and I see the taps being turned off if he keep producing unimpressive results.
Sanders is in with a shot by dint of a fractured opposition. If he's polling 30% consistently, and there are lots of players who are still in the game on 13-15%, then he might well get close to half the delegates given how they're allocated.
The danger is the government underreacting until ministers start dying too.
But most Americans of my acquaintance tend to idolise their Constitution to an extent not seen in any other democracy. The systemic and demographic sources of corruption tend to elude them. Though, as ever, there are plenty of exceptions to that generalisation.
(And, after all, we're far from perfect in that respect ourselves).
F,a,i,l,e,d,a,c,t,u,a,r,y!
How do you identify an extrovert actuary?
He stares at *your* shoes!
Had it happened a few months earlier or later it would have changed the election result.
Same with this epidemic, it could affect directly the Primaries and the Presidential Election, though in what way it's unknown.
The whole world will be scarred and different but no one knows how it will look and for how long.
And yet the betting markets and pundits got the seat totals completely wrong.
"China’s Hubei province confirms a total of 31,728 cases of Coronavirus and 974 deaths by the end of today"
That's 3% fatality rate so far.
Mind you, 'only' 31k confirmed cases in a province with a population of 58m.
"Notably, the infection rarely seems to cause a runny nose or sneezing."
If this is so, getting that message out would go some way towards avoiding unnecessary panic amongst cold and flu sufferers.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/SN02383
I told one of my firm's actuarial students the joke about the difference between the British and the Sicilian actuary this morning (The former can tell you how many people will die next year; the latter can tell you their names). Apparently she'd not heard it before. I felt very old.
But to the original point, yes the coronavirus is a huge opportunity, if not exactly "exciting" for us actuaries. We currently have precisely one data point to gauge the impact of global pandemic disaster scenarios, and it's corrupted by WW1. Some within the profession are quite sensitive to the fact that our data points tend to be other's personal tragedies; others, less so.
However the other big thing is that all the well-known Dems are like 5% underwater. That's not *all* that much worse than Trump who tends to be like -10% to -12%, so if the Dems were relying on that number to counter the other pro-reelection indicators like a strong economy, maybe they're not going to have a fun November.
I'm running out of ideas.
(b) Experts say face masks don't help to stop the virus.
Apparently it is a combination of people reusing face masks many times and that they don't use them correctly / put their pudgy digits in their noses / mouths / etc and then go to mess with their mask again.
OOHHHHHH JEREMY CORBYN.
Now that you have written "running around like headless chicken" so often, could you please be so kind and explain which kind of public health policy proposal exactly would be one that would amount to "running around like headless chicken" ?
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/democratic_2020_nomination/
Starmer came across closest to Remain and LD voters, Long Bailey to existing Labour voters and Nandy to Labour to Conservative switchers and Leavers
That's the good thing about panicking over Coronavirus: A lot of the stuff you'd do to prevent that also works against less exotic threats.
Sanders 2.6
Bloomberg 4
Buttigieg 8.4
Biden 13
Warren 25
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128161111
In the UK we're exceptionally unlikely to to need to ever have to survive without society for a few days, but it never harms to be prepared, and it's cost neutral preparation as well, the stuff I bought will get consumed before their (long dated) expiry, and I already had enough wood and charcoal for the fire/bbq anyway.
The range of potential situations where people would need to be self sufficient for 1-4 weeks for city people is quite different (it's basically just where self quarantine is needed), whereas where I live I've had a week without being able to come/go due to snow, and two occasions of electricity almost being taken out by flooding in the past decade. So in the 99% chance of coronavirus being a damp squib, it's not like I've lost anything by pre-purchasing 50 odd tins of stuff.
SINGAPORE - Several of the locally infected patients with no known links had seen a doctor two or three times before they were sent to hospital.
This is because the illness generally starts mild with non-specific symptoms such as cough, sore throat, slight fever and feeling tired, said Professor Leo Yee Sin, executive director of the National Centre for Infectious Diseases (NCID).
These are symptoms tens of thousands of people suffer from every day in Singapore alone, she added.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/coronavirus-patients-may-be-mildly-ill-for-more-than-a-week-before-condition
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1227002009850695680?s=20
Such deep reflection.
Chances of any of the leadership candidates actually listening to what the
Evil Tory Ashcroftvoters who deserted them had to say??