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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The multi-billionaire who has ignored the first primary states now second place in the betting
On the eve of the first full primary, New Hampshire, the person who’ll become the stop Bernie contender has yet to emerge which is one reason why Sanders looks set to follow his tie in Iowa with a victory in New Hampshire.
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That you seem to have assumed I did not believe what he said, when I did not say I did or not, rather makes the point that we assume people believe or disbelieve a source based on what we wish.
I really don't think anybody will change their mind over Orange Man Bad from yet another attack ad, given the likes of CNN is 24/7 attack ad on the big baby.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1226947892964986881?s=20
https://twitter.com/TimesPictures/status/1226995043761840128
910 deaths globally is still hardly black death
To become President is both easier and more difficult than PM.
It takes years to find a person of actual talent and ideas and organise a political operation of major size to support him, Trump took 36 years from the moment he decided he wanted the job until he got it.
And luck, if Lehman Brothers hadn't collapsed Obama wouldn't have been President.
Can't he theatrically quit the stage and declare he's going to spend the rest of his life living as a mermaid, or something?
perjured, murderous, bloody, full of blame,
Savage, extreme, rude, cruel, not to trust,
Enjoy’d no sooner but despised straight,
Past reason hunted, and no sooner had
Past reason hated, as a swallow’d bait
.. is pretty damned good!
As is the rest of it, for that matter. The breathless build up to the last two lines.. brilliant.
The disaster of Iowa is leading inexorably to Bloomberg as the Dem Nom
Even the few Americans who think the way America is governed is deeply flawed generally think America is exceptional and that every American could live the American Dream with a new way of governing.
The idea that America might merely be a leader amongst broadly liberal and democratic states, and that the American period of preeminence is ending, is something that almost all Americans reject.
Microbes don't follow orders.
How many Kings have died from them.
This is going to be a hard one to contain.
https://twitter.com/JackieKayPoet/status/1226951900962131975
https://twitter.com/nickreeves9876/status/1226983582259871750?s=19
But they don't select the middle, rather what they assume what the middle is among themselves, that's why there are 2 big peaks with a small one in between them.
This was one https://m.poemhunter.com/poem/my-grandmother-s-houses/
Gibberish.
The chances of one of the evacuees to be have been infected without symptoms and infecting everyone on the plane was a risk not worth taking.
Last 3 elected
Fianna Fáil’s Stephen Donnelly
Fine Gael’s Simon Harris
Green Party’s Steven Matthews
Sligo-Leitrim's last 2 seats go to
Fianna Fáil’s Marc MacSharry
Fine Gael’s Frankie Feighan
Cavan-Monaghan is the only constituency on going
FF Smith B +834 8946
FF Smyth N +1370 8186
FG O'Reilly TP +853 8050
FF Gallagher +629 6882 Eliminated
2 seats to be filled. So it will be 2 FF
https://twitter.com/Brand_Allen/status/1226998667183316992?s=19
And don't forget you have to canvass ang campaign for the Local Elections, how many people would you meet and shake hands along the way ?
Bloomberg is a sell here.
Why?
Because while things are going exactly as he would like, it is next to impossible for him to get 50%+1 of the elected delegates. Simply, even if he were polling 30% come Super Tuesday (and he won't be), then he'd have to get a staggering 60% of the delegates post ST.
And to even get to this position, he needs to more than double his current national poll score.
If there is a brokered convention, it's hard to see how he gets the nomination. He's hardly loved by rank and file Democrats (his "unfavourables" are really, really high).
So...
That brings us around to what is going to happen. Mayor Pete will be pleased to have reversed his decline with the CNN tracking poll, which sees him edge up one point - but he's still well behind Sanders. He needs a strong showing tonight, and then a win in Nevada... And then he needs his national polling to reflect the results of the first three states. Possible. But really hard.
Sanders needs a win tonight, and then needs Warren to depart the race leaving the Left track open to him, while the moderates remain split. Possible, certainly. But hard.
Biden needs to be able to say "I'm the comeback kid!" Which means he really
needs to beat Klobuchar and Warren and ideally Buttigieg. If he could make it to second, then - with South Carolina still to come - he's in great shape. But there's little sign that he will.
Klobuchar needs to overhaul Buttigieg, and then become the moderate choice. That means she needs to perform in Nevada... even though she has no infrastructure there. That's even harder.
Warren seems to be the value here. She's acceptable to the majority of Democrats in a way that Bloomberg and Sanders are not. But she needs to perform well today. She can't come fourth or fifth.
FF 38
SF 36
FG 35
Greens 12
Lab 6
SD 6
SOL-PbP 5
He’s like a shorter version of Ross Perot.
https://twitter.com/V2019N/status/1226881330681483266?s=19