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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amy Klobuchar edging up in New Hampshire ahead of tomorrow’s primary
So far in the race for the Democratic nomination the field has tended to split into two groups: the super young people represented by 38 year old Pete Buttigieg and the very old with Michael Bloomberg, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders who are all in their late 80s.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51442314
At the risk of sounding brutal, the cruise ship outbreak is going to give us a far better idea of the proportion of mild cases which might go unrecognised out in the wider world, along with a more accurate mortality rate for this thing.
Last night responding to a rather unkind quip from Tyson about our love of cruises I did say my wife and I have sailed the seven seas due to our love of seeing the world but also our lifetime passion for the sea and sailing. We went to the Artic (twice), Antarctic, South Georgia and the Falklands, sailed from Vancouver to Beijing (on Diamond Princess currently in quarantine in Japan) via Alaska, Japan, Russia, South Korea and the South China sea, several cruises to Norway, the Baltic, Iceland (twice) and Greenland. Furthermore several cruises in both the eastern and western med and the Canaries, and most recently transatlantic to Canada, New England and New York
As my wife is now 80, and neither of us enjoy flying, we have made the decision not to consider any further cruises as there are literally few places in the world we are interested in visiting. We are due to fly to Vancouver to visit or eldest son in May but we count ourselves so fortunate that we have enjoyed so many experiences and completed so much on most peoples 'bucket lists'
One of the features of PB is the kindness of posters across the political divide and I would like to thank all the posters who made such kind comments and suggestions following my post
Hillary Clinton is still only last matched at 50 on Betfair for the nomination. She's basically the same price as Amy Klobuchar. Which is nuts.
In bullshitting to kids news, Sir Keir Starmer visited a school recently. Bloody Coalition/Conservatives, inventing homelessness.
https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1226782588154580994
The epidemic will peak at some point, but we seem to still be in the steep rising phase.
Fortunately, the world comes to Leicester, saving me the bother!
Klobuchar doing better than expected = someone else doing worse. Who? Surely she's not taking votes off Warren in here backyard? Sanders is fishing in a completely different pond. Buttigieg means the moderate vote is fragmenting rather than consolidating, which is to not to her or Pete's advantage. If Biden then we're probably down to a clear final four (possibly plus Bloomberg).
You know who else thinks so, besides Keir Starmer? Boris!
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/prime-minister-pledges-new-action-to-eliminate-homelessness-and-rough-sleeping
Ironically, the lockdown and forced quarantine of millions of people in China, while pretty much unacceptable anywhere else in the world, may have helped them in containing the outbreak. Alternatively, the numbers reported by the Communist Pary might be made-up rubbish.
Sanders 30% (-1)
Buttigieg 20% (-4)
Klobuchar 13% (+4)
Warren 12% (+1)
Biden 11% (0)
It seems off "feel" (I dont have the data) that the price drops are too regular, nothing dramatic each week, but virtually every week he is that bit shorter than the previous week, it doesnt "feel" like a natural market.
Can anyone with access to betdata.io or similar see if there is anything in that?
There's way more planning involved, than I thought there would be, and lots of already known unknowns (such as Coronavirus, and Russian visas).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51439175
"Sydney has been hit by its heaviest rain in 30 years, bringing widespread flooding but also putting out two massive bushfires in New South Wales."
Sanders is benefiting from sidelining Warren while the centrists try this candidate and that without settling on anyone. He needs that to persist to Super Tuesday.
By the way, I've been busy so missed the wave of warm thoughts for Big G. That sounds a wonderful cruising history and recollection must be so rich as to make fresh journeys less essential than simply enjoying all you've seen.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
I still don't know if he's serious about running himself, or is just going to throw a few billion at whoever does win. My best guess is that he'll enter if it looks like Sanders or Warren getting the nom, and will pull back if it looks like one of the more moderate candidates.
For one thing, Sinn Fein does not mean "ourselves alone"!
For another, most people in Ireland were expecting FG to lose, and the more surprising thing is that it was SF and not FF who surged at their expense.
And although the article is right to point out that Brexit was nearly a non-issue, I'm sure Irish journalists will (perhaps a little unfairly) say that it's typically British to expect that it would have been the main issue.
Oh yes, and there's talking about SF serving up "Corbynesque policies" as if they've suddenly taken a lurch to the left, and that they've been inspired to do that by a British party....
Arranging European rail holidays is easily done yourself, using the various rail ticket and hotel sites, or there are specialist companies such as Rail Europe or Railbookers who will put together an entire package for you.
That's a nice combo.
On the other hand, I am extremely sceptical of the figure which claim a steady drop in the number of new cases outside of Wuhan over the last few days. I am no epidemiologist, but they imply a successful quarantining effect on a mass scale which simply does not seem credible for something so infectious. Guess we'll know one way or another within a week or so.
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1226765138977591296?s=20
Their New Year holiday was officially extended until today, we'll quickly find out how many people are actually back at work and how many are staying quarantined. My guess is that those working in international finance have been told to work from home and act normal to the outside world, and pretty much no-one else is going back to work. There will be a serious drop in China's GDP as a result.
Oil is way down in the past month, now hovering around $50 a barrel with OPEC struggling to get production cuts agreed quickly. Toyko, HK and Singapore stock markets are all down today, although only by half a percent.
The ease at which the plague seems to pass from person to person in quarantined areas speaks to a much higher infection rate, at least.
The Scottish Nationalist Party stands in solidarity.
Amazing Irish results. And great tips from @Richard_Nabavi and @TheGreenMachine. (Plus from @Nigelb on Parasite oscar while we're at it.) I followed and am duly in the money. What a bunch of shrewdies on here. You just need to do what people say and you clean up. What's next?
But more importantly, Ireland, the SF surge and what it means. Which is pretty clear IMO. The Left Argument is rampant. It is winning Here There & Everywhere.
Belated rational reaction to the Global Bank Crash and the Austerity inflicted in order to bail out the feckless capitalist culprits? I think so. Bernie taking down Trump is the next shoe to drop. And of course the biggest. Followed by the UK once the Brexit and "Boris" distraction is over.
"Three things cannot be long hidden. The Sun, the Moon, and the Truth."
People are waking up.
No worries, only problem is I won't win anything as I bet 1917 and Joe biden fs.
https://twitter.com/UKDemockery/status/1226374477019275264?s=20
12/12 was ultimately the consequence of that.
With the EU harmonising and moving in one direction it appears nigh on lunacy to attain independence to then relinquish significant and growing parts of your autonomy to a centralising federal power.
STV: Nonsense on stilts.
Yes: 45%
You're welcome.
I still don't understand how it happened, but she went into a walking stick shop in Ireland and managed to get a BOGOF. Featured prominently in the eulogy.
I am considering arranging them like a pair of swords somewhere.
The friend, in her 80s, still goes to Sheffield United every Saturday and does all day Scrabble competitions.
All the best.
Perhaps Chinese case count is lagging the reality, but unless there is an outright conspiracy extending to multiple Western nations, we should increasingly be able to ascertain the true picture from places other than China.
How is the EU not centralising when it continually shifts powers from nation-states to Brussels?
A vote to stay in or leave the EU isn't weighted by enthusiasm. The decision alone is what counts.
So is the number of infected approximately 10x the official figure or is something else going on? Has the quality of Chinese medical care had an effect? It is troubling that the number of recovered seems so low more than 2 months after this first started to hit serious numbers. A virus that leaves people needing intense medical care for multiple weeks has scary resource implications.
I believe in proper independence. I wonder what proportion of Scots do?
As for Irish nationalists, any constitutional power that they cede to the EU is done via an Irish referendum, and they can leave whenever they want without bloodshed. So there are some small and subtle differences with Ireland's historic relationship with the UK....
Point is, the natural reaction to cowboy bankers crashing the economy was a lurch to the Left but this has been delayed by distractions such as MPs expenses and nativist concerns over immigration, which various ideologues and careerists of the Right, prime among them our PM - "Boris" - have skillfully exploited to gain power. They have manufactured the bogeyman of a "left liberal elite" and successfully (for now) diverted the WWC down the path of Brexit and vague and vacuous intentions of "unleashing our national potential".
But the key bits in the above are "delayed" and "for now".
Far too many countries electorates seem to prefer shallow showy extroverts with the attention span of sugared up toddlers. Politics is not entertainment!
Ditto the French and the Dutch, after what happened in the EU Constitution referendums.
And they forced the Irish to keep going until they said yes.
So while I know that isn't quite what you asked, it still doesn't feel like the EU compares favourably with the UK on this.