"“Trump calls Bloomberg ‘Little Mike,’” said Warren Curtin of Litchfield. “Wouldn’t you like to see Bloomberg go up against him on a stage? Trump would call him that and Bloomberg would answer back, ‘Well, I’ve made 60 billion more than you and I didn’t inherit any. Who is the little man?!'”
OMG. Is sense actually breaking out in the Labour party at last, or is this a reflection of new members?
Almost entirely the former.
New members must have joined 8 weeks before nominating meetings in order to take part. So , a member could have joined after the general election on Saturday 14th December and take part in a nomination meeting today. Most new members won't have joined that quickly though.
A higher proportion of new members will be eligible to vote at meetings later next week. As a new member I'll be eligible to vote at my own CLP meeting on Thursday 13th.
Very sensible that we can't vote at the meetings but a terrible decision to stop us attending. For many, including me, it will be the first CLP after their membership got through (which takes weeks). It's not the best way of embracing and harnessing new support. I'm surprised I haven't seen more comment on this.
New members can't vote in CLP nominations meeting. Freezing date to vote in nomination meetings is continuous membership in the 8 weeks before the date of the meeting. So those who joined after the GE aren't eligible. They will be eligible for the final vote though
No, the requirement is the same as the requirement to vote at all CLP meetings, namely that they have passed their 8 week provisional membership period at the date of the nomination meeting. 8 weeks after the GE was Thursday 6th Feb.
Here are the guidelines specific to CLP nomination meetings.
" ELIGIBLE MEMBERS As per Chapter 2; Clause II; 4 of the Labour Party Rule Book only those members who have passed their 8 week provisional period of membership at the relevant date shall have the right to attend and vote at CLP meetings. For these purposes, the relevant date agreed by the NEC is date on which the meeting is due to take place."
It's rather a bold claim to equate high achievement with virtue. Certainly, most leading financiers are Remainers, but would you say they are virtuous?
Did not single out Finance. Most leading "insert occupation" were Remainers.
As to whether high achievers are on average "better" people than low achievers - mmm that does go into waters best left unpaddled.
For now anyway. It would make for an interesting topic at some point.
I would argue that in almost any referendum that high achievers in any field are moee likely to vote for the option which looks more like thr status quo, since they are more likely to view the status quo as working fir them. In general, of course.
That's absolutely right. Martin Lewis made pretty much that point when he wrote about the EU referendum. He said, basically, "I'm voting Remain because, as a relatively successful guy, it doesn't make sense for me to roll the dice."
New members can't vote in CLP nominations meeting. Freezing date to vote in nomination meetings is continuous membership in the 8 weeks before the date of the meeting. So those who joined after the GE aren't eligible. They will be eligible for the final vote though
No, the requirement is the same as the requirement to vote at all CLP meetings, namely that they have passed their 8 week provisional membership period at the date of the nomination meeting. 8 weeks after the GE was Thursday 6th Feb.
Here are the guidelines specific to CLP nomination meetings.
" ELIGIBLE MEMBERS As per Chapter 2; Clause II; 4 of the Labour Party Rule Book only those members who have passed their 8 week provisional period of membership at the relevant date shall have the right to attend and vote at CLP meetings. For these purposes, the relevant date agreed by the NEC is date on which the meeting is due to take place."
I possibly wrote it badly (and miscounted the real days since GE because I just put two months after the 12th). Sorry, English is not my first language. But that's what I meant. You have to have joined the party 8 weeks before the day the CLP meeting take place to vote for the CLP nomination.
"“Trump calls Bloomberg ‘Little Mike,’” said Warren Curtin of Litchfield. “Wouldn’t you like to see Bloomberg go up against him on a stage? Trump would call him that and Bloomberg would answer back, ‘Well, I’ve made 60 billion more than you and I didn’t inherit any. Who is the little man?!'”
Or "It's true that I'm not clinically obese".
Trump has a BMI of over 30.
Did Bloomberg serve in the military?
Not according to Wikipedia. I did learn this though "Since signing The Giving Pledge whereby billionaires pledge to give away at least half of their wealth, Bloomberg has given away $8.2 billion" and "A lifelong Democrat before seeking elective office, Bloomberg switched his party registration in 2001 to run for mayor as a Republican. He won a second term in 2005 and left the Republican Party two years later."
"“Trump calls Bloomberg ‘Little Mike,’” said Warren Curtin of Litchfield. “Wouldn’t you like to see Bloomberg go up against him on a stage? Trump would call him that and Bloomberg would answer back, ‘Well, I’ve made 60 billion more than you and I didn’t inherit any. Who is the little man?!'”
Or "It's true that I'm not clinically obese".
Trump has a BMI of over 30.
My wealth is nearly as high as your BMI.
Probably not a good idea to alienate 36% of the population. Definitely a large voting block!
"“Trump calls Bloomberg ‘Little Mike,’” said Warren Curtin of Litchfield. “Wouldn’t you like to see Bloomberg go up against him on a stage? Trump would call him that and Bloomberg would answer back, ‘Well, I’ve made 60 billion more than you and I didn’t inherit any. Who is the little man?!'”
Or "It's true that I'm not clinically obese".
Trump has a BMI of over 30.
Did Bloomberg serve in the military?
Not according to Wikipedia. I did learn this though "Since signing The Giving Pledge whereby billionaires pledge to give away at least half of their wealth, Bloomberg has given away $8.2 billion" and "A lifelong Democrat before seeking elective office, Bloomberg switched his party registration in 2001 to run for mayor as a Republican. He won a second term in 2005 and left the Republican Party two years later."
You know, I think the Democrats could forgive Bloomberg for having been a Republican mayor.
But I don't think they'd forgive him for giving a speech at the RNC.
(That being said, Bloomberg is smart. He's spending money doing the thing that Democrats like to see the most - Trump bashing.)
I really don't think I see that unless you equiperate leave with right. Which would be wrong and a mistake that cost Labour dear.
But there IS a very strong correlation here between Leave and Right (of centre). Of the many Leavers we have I can only right now think of @SandyRentool and @bigjohnowls and @Wulfrun_Phil who identify as dressing Left. Might be a couple I'm omitting but still.
And on top of that several Leftish constructs (who were anyway a minority) have stopped posting regularly. @Noo@Recidivist@Stereotomy@TheJezziah ...
But it's fine. I'm not complaining about it. I've only been on here a year or so myself and for all I know these are normal fluctuations.
Old Labour and The Valiant as well.
I think Justin and Rochdale might also have supported Leave.
@stodge - although LibDem rather than Labour - also voted Leave.
If you look at (say) 2010 voters, I suspect that you would see that reasonably high proportions of each party's vote, including the LDs, went Leave.
Since then, the parties have realigned somewhat around the referendum vote. The Conservatives have become the all out party of Leave. While the LDs and Labour attract more of the Remain vote.
@stodge - although LibDem rather than Labour - also voted Leave.
If you look at (say) 2010 voters, I suspect that you would see that reasonably high proportions of each party's vote, including the LDs, went Leave.
Since then, the parties have realigned somewhat around the referendum vote. The Conservatives have become the all out party of Leave. While the LDs and Labour attract more of the Remain vote.
The interesting question is how long this lasts.
Had the Conservatives simply relied on 75% of the LEAVE cohort, they wouldn't have won in December.
The key two elements in the REMAIN voting majority which backed the Tories were a) those who didn't want Brexit but wanted Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister much less and b) those who didn't want Brexit but recognised the democratic will of the people as expressed in the 2016 Referendum needed to be enacted.
That grouping representing about 1 in 6 of REMAIN voters and 8-9% of the electorate overall got Boris Johnson his clear majority.
There seems a general assumption once we properly leave the EU there will be a return to old allegiances - I'm less convinced.
Johnson, as an individual, seems to transcend party loyalties - there are people who voted for him who had never previously voted Conservative and Conservatives who will never back the Party while he is leader.
The aspect of 2019 we will need to consider is to what extent it was a victory for Johnson as an individual rather than for the Conservatives in particular and, as with Trump, whether loyalty to the individual transcends loyalty to the Party.
I find the Irish election frustrating. I am sure there is money to made because the market is going to be ill-informed. However I am equally sure I know nothing myself.
If this continues we might see Oil being sold for free: https://twitter.com/PVandenHoute/status/1225733310871109632 But we might also see scarcity of consumer and industrial goods, until at least new factories have been built outside of China.
@stodge - although LibDem rather than Labour - also voted Leave.
If you look at (say) 2010 voters, I suspect that you would see that reasonably high proportions of each party's vote, including the LDs, went Leave.
Since then, the parties have realigned somewhat around the referendum vote. The Conservatives have become the all out party of Leave. While the LDs and Labour attract more of the Remain vote.
The interesting question is how long this lasts.
Had the Conservatives simply relied on 75% of the LEAVE cohort, they wouldn't have won in December.
The key two elements in the REMAIN voting majority which backed the Tories were a) those who didn't want Brexit but wanted Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister much less and b) those who didn't want Brexit but recognised the democratic will of the people as expressed in the 2016 Referendum needed to be enacted.
That grouping representing about 1 in 6 of REMAIN voters and 8-9% of the electorate overall got Boris Johnson his clear majority.
There seems a general assumption once we properly leave the EU there will be a return to old allegiances - I'm less convinced.
Johnson, as an individual, seems to transcend party loyalties - there are people who voted for him who had never previously voted Conservative and Conservatives who will never back the Party while he is leader.
The aspect of 2019 we will need to consider is to what extent it was a victory for Johnson as an individual rather than for the Conservatives in particular and, as with Trump, whether loyalty to the individual transcends loyalty to the Party.
I was very much a remain voter who falls into the b) group but I would never vote for a Corbyn led labour party
As far as Boris is concerned I was very anti and did not vote for him in the leadership election, but I am now convinced he is the leader for the times and he does tune into my liberal side
He is far from perfect, but who is these days, and I do think those labour supporters who see Starmer as a saviour and an instant hit with the public are going to be disappointed
At the very least labour have got to stop being so miserable and all doom and gloom, they need to become much more pro UK, and move away from large scale nationalisation and increasing taxes. And above all they have to extinguish anti semitism from their party once and for all
As far as matters Irish, no counting tonight but an exit poll at 10pm.
I bet that's fun; presumably the respondents are asked to give all the preferences they gave in the real vote, and then those running the poll have to do all of the transfer process.
I find the Irish election frustrating. I am sure there is money to made because the market is going to be ill-informed. However I am equally sure I know nothing myself.
Money is to be made by people with inside insights in this market. Beware. On a separate note, it is really sketchy to leave votes overnight before counting.
As far as matters Irish, no counting tonight but an exit poll at 10pm.
I bet that's fun; presumably the respondents are asked to give all the preferences they gave in the real vote, and then those running the poll have to do all of the transfer process.
If it is like the UK, the preliminary work is done by teatime, and to get a result on the computer is very fast even with transfers. Tonight's big storm will make their job even easier because people will be voting early in the day on a weekend.
I was very much a remain voter who falls into the b) group but I would never vote for a Corbyn led labour party
As far as Boris is concerned I was very anti and did not vote for him in the leadership election, but I am now convinced he is the leader for the times and he does tune into my liberal side
He is far from perfect, but who is these days, and I do think those labour supporters who see Starmer as a saviour and an instant hit with the public are going to be disappointed
At the very least labour have got to stop being so miserable and all doom and gloom, they need to become much more pro UK, and move away from large scale nationalisation and increasing taxes. And above all they have to extinguish anti semitism from their party once and for all
I'm much more sceptical about Boris.
He talks the liberal talk but let's see if he walks the liberal walk. Being a liberal isn't about talking tough on law and order one day and promising huge amounts of Government money to any old capital vanity project the next.
Remember, he will always say what he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear so the contradiction is always going to be there.
His big advantage is his relentless positive outlook which might one day jar and grate on people but for now works well.
I agree the Opposition has to counter his version of faux bonhomie with some actual reasons to be cheerful. I have always regarded the Conservative idea of wrapping themselves in the Union Jack and subtly implying anyone who isn't a Tory isn't patriotic with contempt.
As for the actual policies, Boris would have us believe there is money for everything and taxes will be cut - I don't believe that and I suspect a growing number won't either.
Being critical and holding the Government to account isn't about talking down Britain or being unpatriotic - it's called democracy but it cannot be relentlessly negative - Opposition has to offer a better tomorrow not just crap on today.
I was very much a remain voter who falls into the b) group but I would never vote for a Corbyn led labour party
As far as Boris is concerned I was very anti and did not vote for him in the leadership election, but I am now convinced he is the leader for the times and he does tune into my liberal side
He is far from perfect, but who is these days, and I do think those labour supporters who see Starmer as a saviour and an instant hit with the public are going to be disappointed
At the very least labour have got to stop being so miserable and all doom and gloom, they need to become much more pro UK, and move away from large scale nationalisation and increasing taxes. And above all they have to extinguish anti semitism from their party once and for all
I'm much more sceptical about Boris.
He talks the liberal talk but let's see if he walks the liberal walk. Being a liberal isn't about talking tough on law and order one day and promising huge amounts of Government money to any old capital vanity project the next.
Remember, he will always say what he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear so the contradiction is always going to be there.
His big advantage is his relentless positive outlook which might one day jar and grate on people but for now works well.
I agree the Opposition has to counter his version of faux bonhomie with some actual reasons to be cheerful. I have always regarded the Conservative idea of wrapping themselves in the Union Jack and subtly implying anyone who isn't a Tory isn't patriotic with contempt.
As for the actual policies, Boris would have us believe there is money for everything and taxes will be cut - I don't believe that and I suspect a growing number won't either.
Being critical and holding the Government to account isn't about talking down Britain or being unpatriotic - it's called democracy but it cannot be relentlessly negative - Opposition has to offer a better tomorrow not just crap on today.
If this continues we might see Oil being sold for free: https://twitter.com/PVandenHoute/status/1225733310871109632 But we might also see scarcity of consumer and industrial goods, until at least new factories have been built outside of China.
One of my clients makes a product which is dependent on supply from China. There is nothing moving over there
As far as matters Irish, no counting tonight but an exit poll at 10pm.
I bet that's fun; presumably the respondents are asked to give all the preferences they gave in the real vote, and then those running the poll have to do all of the transfer process.
If it is like the UK, the preliminary work is done by teatime, and to get a result on the computer is very fast even with transfers. Tonight's big storm will make their job even easier because people will be voting early in the day on a weekend.
Are the counts tomorrow? Sunday counting must look a bit weird in a catholic country. Though I appreciate the Republic is no so devout as it was.
@stodge - although LibDem rather than Labour - also voted Leave.
The key two elements in the REMAIN voting majority which backed the Tories were a) those who didn't want Brexit but wanted Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister much less and b) those who didn't want Brexit but recognised the democratic will of the people as expressed in the 2016 Referendum needed to be enacted.
That grouping representing about 1 in 6 of REMAIN voters and 8-9% of the electorate overall got Boris Johnson his clear majority.
There seems a general assumption once we properly leave the EU there will be a return to old allegiances - I'm less convinced.
Johnson, as an individual, seems to transcend party loyalties - there are people who voted for him who had never previously voted Conservative and Conservatives who will never back the Party while he is leader.
The aspect of 2019 we will need to consider is to what extent it was a victory for Johnson as an individual rather than for the Conservatives in particular and, as with Trump, whether loyalty to the individual transcends loyalty to the Party.
I was very much a remain voter who falls into the b) group but I would never vote for a Corbyn led labour party
As far as Boris is concerned I was very anti and did not vote for him in the leadership election, but I am now convinced he is the leader for the times and he does tune into my liberal side
He is far from perfect, but who is these days, and I do think those labour supporters who see Starmer as a saviour and an instant hit with the public are going to be disappointed
At the very least labour have got to stop being so miserable and all doom and gloom, they need to become much more pro UK, and move away from large scale nationalisation and increasing taxes. And above all they have to extinguish anti semitism from their party once and for all
With great respect ,Big_G, your comments almost invariably conveyed the impression of someone looking around for any excuse available to justify returning to the fold. I know from my own experience - having been a Labour member for almost 27 years and a young PPC at the 1979 election - how painful the decision to leave can be. But loyalty can be overrated and principles do matter. I left my party at the end of 1996 and have no expectation of ever returning as a full member - my days of political activism are over. I have joined the Jewish Labour Movement and will be able to vote at the forthcoming Leadership election, but since leaving the party I have voted Labour at only two General Elections - 2015 and 2017. Last year I voted Green, and if Labour presents me with a gender -vetted candidate at the next election, the party will again not receive my vote.
If this continues we might see Oil being sold for free: https://twitter.com/PVandenHoute/status/1225733310871109632 But we might also see scarcity of consumer and industrial goods, until at least new factories have been built outside of China.
One of my clients makes a product which is dependent on supply from China. There is nothing moving over there
Globalization is going to be out of fashion for a period after this. It was always a risk to move most production to the other side of the world.
As far as matters Irish, no counting tonight but an exit poll at 10pm.
I bet that's fun; presumably the respondents are asked to give all the preferences they gave in the real vote, and then those running the poll have to do all of the transfer process.
If it is like the UK, the preliminary work is done by teatime, and to get a result on the computer is very fast even with transfers. Tonight's big storm will make their job even easier because people will be voting early in the day on a weekend.
Are the counts tomorrow? Sunday counting must look a bit weird in a catholic country. Though I appreciate the Republic is no so devout as it was.
Catholics are not Sabbatarians. NI elections don't poll or count on Sunday due to the Presbyterian influence.
@stodge - although LibDem rather than Labour - also voted Leave.
b) those who didn't want Brexit but recognised the democratic will of the people as expressed in the 2016 Referendum needed to be enacted.
That grouping representing about 1 in 6 of REMAIN voters and 8-9% of the electorate overall got Boris Johnson his clear majority.
Johnson, as an individual, seems to transcend party loyalties - there are people who voted for him who had never previously voted Conservative and Conservatives who will never back the Party while he is leader.
The aspect of 2019 we will need to consider is to what extent it was a victory for Johnson as an individual rather than for the Conservatives in particular and, as with Trump, whether loyalty to the individual transcends loyalty to the Party.
I was very much a remain voter who falls into the b) group but I would never vote for a Corbyn led labour party
As far as Boris is concerned I was very anti and did not vote for him in the leadership election, but I am now convinced he is the leader for the times and he does tune into my liberal side
He is far from perfect, but who is these days, and I do think those labour supporters who see Starmer as a saviour and an instant hit with the public are going to be disappointed
At the very least labour have got to stop being so miserable and all doom and gloom, they need to become much more pro UK, and move away from large scale nationalisation and increasing taxes. And above all they have to extinguish anti semitism from their party once and for all
With great respect ,Big_G, your comments almost invariably conveyed the impression of someone looking around for any excuse available to justify returning to the fold. I know from my own experience - having been a Labour member for almost 27 years and a young PPC at the 1979 election - how painful the decision to leave can be. But loyalty can be overrated and principles do matter. I left my party at the end of 1996 and have no expectation of ever returning as a full member - my days of political activism are over. I have joined the Jewish Labour Movement and will be able to vote at the forthcoming Leadership election, but since leaving the party I have voted Labour at only two General Elections - 2015 and 2017. Last year I voted Green, and if Labour presents me with a gender -vetted candidate at the next election, the party will again not receive my vote.
Justin. I need no excuse to continue my support of the conservative party especially with the opposition so unsuitable for office. I voted for Blair twice but I do not see this conservative voting labour again, and to gain office you need thousands of conservatives to vote labour.
Last year I voted Green, and if Labour presents me with a gender -vetted candidate at the next election, the party will again not receive my vote.
Given that 51% of Labour MPs are women, there'll be no all-woman shortlists in Norwich or anywhere else for the next GE, unless Labour is intent on breaking the law.
@stodge - although LibDem rather than Labour - also voted Leave.
I was very much a remain voter who falls into the b) group but I would never vote for a Corbyn led labour party
As far as Boris is concerned I was very anti and did not vote for him in the leadership election, but I am now convinced he is the leader for the times and he does tune into my liberal side
He is far from perfect, but who is these days, and I do think those labour supporters who see Starmer as a saviour and an instant hit with the public are going to be disappointed
At the very least labour have got to stop being so miserable and all doom and gloom, they need to become much more pro UK, and move away from large scale nationalisation and increasing taxes. And above all they have to extinguish anti semitism from their party once and for all
With great respect ,Big_G, your comments almost invariably conveyed the impression of someone looking around for any excuse available to justify returning to the fold. I know from my own experience - having been a Labour member for almost 27 years and a young PPC at the 1979 election - how painful the decision to leave can be. But loyalty can be overrated and principles do matter. I left my party at the end of 1996 and have no expectation of ever returning as a full member - my days of political activism are over. I have joined the Jewish Labour Movement and will be able to vote at the forthcoming Leadership election, but since leaving the party I have voted Labour at only two General Elections - 2015 and 2017. Last year I voted Green, and if Labour presents me with a gender -vetted candidate at the next election, the party will again not receive my vote.
Justin. I need no excuse to continue my support of the conservative party especially with the opposition so unsuitable for office. I voted for Blair twice but I do not see this conservative voting labour again, and to gain office you need thousands of conservatives to vote labour.
I have never voted Conservative but voted LibDem at the 2001 and 2005 elections. In 2010 and 2019 I voted Green - and back in 1997 I voted Socialist Labour as a protest against Blair. The great advantage of no longer being a party member is that I can in good conscience support whichever party I choose at a given time. As a party member , I would not feel able to exercise that freedom, and fully support decisions taken by the parties to expel people such as Heseltine and Alastair Campbell when they reveal - or advocate - in public voting for another party.
Picture the political landscape as two axes: 1. Socially conservative (the old ways are the best ways, anti-immigration, anti identity politics, Victor Meldrew) versus socially liberal (be free to do your own thing, tolerate others) 2. Economically Dry (pro austerity, sound money) versus Economically Wet (Keynesian, borrow to invest)
There are four quadrants. The Leavers are socially conservative of the wet (old Labour) and dry (Old Tory) varieties. The top two quadrants. A big space. Johnson has done a 180 degree pivot from Cameron's position (Pro-austerity, hug a hoody) to anti-austerity, bang up a hoody. Labour is economically wet but Johnson has stolen their lunch of Old Labour types. LibDems are clearly socially liberal (and Remain) but still spilt on economics.
Where are the gaps? Where do the new Labour and LibDem leaders fit?
Globalization is going to be out of fashion for a period after this. It was always a risk to move most production to the other side of the world.
I suppose the question is whether this is a brief hiatus lasting a couple of weeks or the start of several months of disruption.
I'm sceptical of the Chinese Government figures regarding cases and deaths and I've heard rumours this illness as known about as far back as November last year.
That being said, nothing causes fear better than fear itself and the prospect of cruise ships turning into floating hospitals is going to impact the cruise industry in the short term and of course the wider travel industry.
Picture the political landscape as two axes: 1. Socially conservative (the old ways are the best ways, anti-immigration, anti identity politics, Victor Meldrew) versus socially liberal (be free to do your own thing, tolerate others) 2. Economically Dry (pro austerity, sound money) versus Economically Wet (Keynesian, borrow to invest)
There are four quadrants. The Leavers are socially conservative of the wet (old Labour) and dry (Old Tory) varieties. The top two quadrants. A big space. Johnson has done a 180 degree pivot from Cameron's position (Pro-austerity, hug a hoody) to anti-austerity, bang up a hoody. Labour is economically wet but Johnson has stolen their lunch of Old Labour types. LibDems are clearly socially liberal (and Remain) but still spilt on economics.
Where are the gaps? Where do the new Labour and LibDem leaders fit?
Johnson's personal morality surely makes him very socially Liberal - indeed an ultra laissez-faire Liberal!
The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.
I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
I have enough stocks of wine to last several months and not of anything else much. We would be surviving on that.
The increase in cases has been linear, not exponential, in the past few days. We can but hope the virus can be contained until the it mutates into a less serious strain. Fingers crossed ...
Wondering if laying Bernie for S. Carolina at 2.7 is value. Last time he got crushed there with just 26% of vote in a 2 horse race. This time he could do worse since Warren might eat into his share.
Biden is evens, but there's a chance of a complete collapse in his position...
Picture the political landscape as two axes: 1. Socially conservative (the old ways are the best ways, anti-immigration, anti identity politics, Victor Meldrew) versus socially liberal (be free to do your own thing, tolerate others) 2. Economically Dry (pro austerity, sound money) versus Economically Wet (Keynesian, borrow to invest)
There are four quadrants. The Leavers are socially conservative of the wet (old Labour) and dry (Old Tory) varieties. The top two quadrants. A big space. Johnson has done a 180 degree pivot from Cameron's position (Pro-austerity, hug a hoody) to anti-austerity, bang up a hoody. Labour is economically wet but Johnson has stolen their lunch of Old Labour types. LibDems are clearly socially liberal (and Remain) but still spilt on economics.
Where are the gaps? Where do the new Labour and LibDem leaders fit?
Johnson's personal morality surely makes him very socially Liberal - indeed an ultra laissez-faire Liberal!
Picture the political landscape as two axes: 1. Socially conservative (the old ways are the best ways, anti-immigration, anti identity politics, Victor Meldrew) versus socially liberal (be free to do your own thing, tolerate others) 2. Economically Dry (pro austerity, sound money) versus Economically Wet (Keynesian, borrow to invest)
There are four quadrants. The Leavers are socially conservative of the wet (old Labour) and dry (Old Tory) varieties. The top two quadrants. A big space. Johnson has done a 180 degree pivot from Cameron's position (Pro-austerity, hug a hoody) to anti-austerity, bang up a hoody. Labour is economically wet but Johnson has stolen their lunch of Old Labour types. LibDems are clearly socially liberal (and Remain) but still spilt on economics.
Where are the gaps? Where do the new Labour and LibDem leaders fit?
Johnson's personal morality surely makes him very socially Liberal - indeed an ultra laissez-faire Liberal!
Yes but that's not what he is promoting to the Northern Red Wall. Priti Patel.
Picture the political landscape as two axes: 1. Socially conservative (the old ways are the best ways, anti-immigration, anti identity politics, Victor Meldrew) versus socially liberal (be free to do your own thing, tolerate others) 2. Economically Dry (pro austerity, sound money) versus Economically Wet (Keynesian, borrow to invest)
There are four quadrants. The Leavers are socially conservative of the wet (old Labour) and dry (Old Tory) varieties. The top two quadrants. A big space. Johnson has done a 180 degree pivot from Cameron's position (Pro-austerity, hug a hoody) to anti-austerity, bang up a hoody. Labour is economically wet but Johnson has stolen their lunch of Old Labour types. LibDems are clearly socially liberal (and Remain) but still spilt on economics.
Where are the gaps? Where do the new Labour and LibDem leaders fit?
Nice analysis, but you've not quite put Labour in the right place. They should be in the bottom left corner - maxed out on liberalism in both economics and social policy.
And woe betide any leader who tries to drag them even an inch out of that corner...
Lib Dems can be statist or laissez-faire econimically but are always socially liberal. Tories have purged their social liberals but have somewhat embraced economic statism. Labour can be socially liberal or conservative but will always be economic statists.
The political centre of gravity therefore has shifted towards statism and social conservatism.
Picture the political landscape as two axes: 1. Socially conservative (the old ways are the best ways, anti-immigration, anti identity politics, Victor Meldrew) versus socially liberal (be free to do your own thing, tolerate others) 2. Economically Dry (pro austerity, sound money) versus Economically Wet (Keynesian, borrow to invest)
There are four quadrants. The Leavers are socially conservative of the wet (old Labour) and dry (Old Tory) varieties. The top two quadrants. A big space. Johnson has done a 180 degree pivot from Cameron's position (Pro-austerity, hug a hoody) to anti-austerity, bang up a hoody. Labour is economically wet but Johnson has stolen their lunch of Old Labour types. LibDems are clearly socially liberal (and Remain) but still spilt on economics.
Where are the gaps? Where do the new Labour and LibDem leaders fit?
Comments
So far she has: 18 out of 435 (4.14%)
So need, another 15 out of 212 (7.08%) (if every CLP nominates)
Will she make it???????
Here are the guidelines specific to CLP nomination meetings.
" ELIGIBLE MEMBERS
As per Chapter 2; Clause II; 4 of the Labour Party Rule Book only those members
who have passed their 8 week provisional period of membership at the relevant
date shall have the right to attend and vote at CLP meetings. For these purposes,
the relevant date agreed by the NEC is date on which the meeting is due to take
place."
https://twitter.com/ChaseMit/status/1225967578603868160?s=19
Which I thought was refreshingly honest.
But that's what I meant. You have to have joined the party 8 weeks before the day the CLP meeting take place to vote for the CLP nomination.
I did learn this though
"Since signing The Giving Pledge whereby billionaires pledge to give away at least half of their wealth, Bloomberg has given away $8.2 billion"
and
"A lifelong Democrat before seeking elective office, Bloomberg switched his party registration in 2001 to run for mayor as a Republican. He won a second term in 2005 and left the Republican Party two years later."
https://twitter.com/exstrategist/status/1226157619590680577?s=21
But I don't think they'd forgive him for giving a speech at the RNC.
(That being said, Bloomberg is smart. He's spending money doing the thing that Democrats like to see the most - Trump bashing.)
If you look at (say) 2010 voters, I suspect that you would see that reasonably high proportions of each party's vote, including the LDs, went Leave.
Since then, the parties have realigned somewhat around the referendum vote. The Conservatives have become the all out party of Leave. While the LDs and Labour attract more of the Remain vote.
The interesting question is how long this lasts.
The key two elements in the REMAIN voting majority which backed the Tories were a) those who didn't want Brexit but wanted Jeremy Corbyn as Prime Minister much less and b) those who didn't want Brexit but recognised the democratic will of the people as expressed in the 2016 Referendum needed to be enacted.
That grouping representing about 1 in 6 of REMAIN voters and 8-9% of the electorate overall got Boris Johnson his clear majority.
There seems a general assumption once we properly leave the EU there will be a return to old allegiances - I'm less convinced.
Johnson, as an individual, seems to transcend party loyalties - there are people who voted for him who had never previously voted Conservative and Conservatives who will never back the Party while he is leader.
The aspect of 2019 we will need to consider is to what extent it was a victory for Johnson as an individual rather than for the Conservatives in particular and, as with Trump, whether loyalty to the individual transcends loyalty to the Party.
Goodness.
The FDP fall back to just 5% while the SPD improves to 15%. Greens improve to 24% but still four points behind CDU/CSU on 28%
https://twitter.com/RBReich/status/1225976925451014144
https://twitter.com/PVandenHoute/status/1225733310871109632
But we might also see scarcity of consumer and industrial goods, until at least new factories have been built outside of China.
As far as Boris is concerned I was very anti and did not vote for him in the leadership election, but I am now convinced he is the leader for the times and he does tune into my liberal side
He is far from perfect, but who is these days, and I do think those labour supporters who see Starmer as a saviour and an instant hit with the public are going to be disappointed
At the very least labour have got to stop being so miserable and all doom and gloom, they need to become much more pro UK, and move away from large scale nationalisation and increasing taxes. And above all they have to extinguish anti semitism from their party once and for all
28-13 so far.
He talks the liberal talk but let's see if he walks the liberal walk. Being a liberal isn't about talking tough on law and order one day and promising huge amounts of Government money to any old capital vanity project the next.
Remember, he will always say what he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear so the contradiction is always going to be there.
His big advantage is his relentless positive outlook which might one day jar and grate on people but for now works well.
I agree the Opposition has to counter his version of faux bonhomie with some actual reasons to be cheerful. I have always regarded the Conservative idea of wrapping themselves in the Union Jack and subtly implying anyone who isn't a Tory isn't patriotic with contempt.
As for the actual policies, Boris would have us believe there is money for everything and taxes will be cut - I don't believe that and I suspect a growing number won't either.
Being critical and holding the Government to account isn't about talking down Britain or being unpatriotic - it's called democracy but it cannot be relentlessly negative - Opposition has to offer a better tomorrow not just crap on today.
It was always a risk to move most production to the other side of the world.
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1226192461925670913
But I won the top prize. A copy of the Brexit Act, signed by Boris, dated 31st January 2020.....
Which was nice.
1. Socially conservative (the old ways are the best ways, anti-immigration, anti identity politics, Victor Meldrew) versus socially liberal (be free to do your own thing, tolerate others)
2. Economically Dry (pro austerity, sound money) versus Economically Wet (Keynesian, borrow to invest)
There are four quadrants. The Leavers are socially conservative of the wet (old Labour) and dry (Old Tory) varieties. The top two quadrants. A big space.
Johnson has done a 180 degree pivot from Cameron's position (Pro-austerity, hug a hoody) to anti-austerity, bang up a hoody.
Labour is economically wet but Johnson has stolen their lunch of Old Labour types.
LibDems are clearly socially liberal (and Remain) but still spilt on economics.
Where are the gaps? Where do the new Labour and LibDem leaders fit?
I'm sceptical of the Chinese Government figures regarding cases and deaths and I've heard rumours this illness as known about as far back as November last year.
That being said, nothing causes fear better than fear itself and the prospect of cruise ships turning into floating hospitals is going to impact the cruise industry in the short term and of course the wider travel industry.
The increase in cases has been linear, not exponential, in the past few days. We can but hope the virus can be contained until the it mutates into a less serious strain. Fingers crossed ...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/
Biden is evens, but there's a chance of a complete collapse in his position...
And woe betide any leader who tries to drag them even an inch out of that corner...
The political centre of gravity therefore has shifted towards statism and social conservatism.
I guess Johnson has worked out the sweet spot.
The public have disowned this thread.