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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Public standards mean nothing if the public won’t own them

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  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    "In democracies, we cannot rely on elected politicians or impartial bodies to hold those in power to a decent standard if the voters themselves are not willing to do the same."

    We only have to look back to December to see the same phenomenon here.

    The voters held the elected politicians to account last December. The elected politicians had been given a job to do, they refused to do it, so the voters changed their votes to ensure this time they'd be listened to.

    Seats that for decades had only ever voted red suddenly went blue because the reds weren't doing what the voters wanted.

    You're just irritable because it wasn't your standard the voters wanted.
    Voters had to choose, and a plurality (not majority) voted for a proven adulterous liar who had illegally suspended Parliament and deceived the Queen and evaded interview. Certainly the other option had major defects too, but it does demonstrate that voters are quite willing to go along with low standards in public life here as much as they do across the pond.
    Boris "a proven adulterous liar who had illegally suspended Parliament and deceived the Queen and evaded interview."

    When you put it like that - imagine how shite the other leaders must have been for the voters to give Boris an 80 seat majority.

    You keep trotting out these lines like one day they are going to have a different effect. Truth is, there's a vast army of adulterers out there. They chose not to cast the first stone. Boris's suspension of Parliament was initially upheld by the Queen's Bench. It only became "illegal" when a politically-motivated Supreme Court "did their bit" to try and nail Brexit Boris.

    You fall into the exact trap as the Democrats just did. Thinking the voters give a shiny shit about the things you are getting puce in the face about on their behalf.

    No, just making the point that politics trumps morality here as much as America, other places too, of course. Indeed didn't DH himself vote Conservative in Dec?

    I did, after much soul-searching and going through all the options.

    I eventually decided that Corbyn, his colleagues and his manifesto posed such a threat to the country that - living in a Con/Lab marginal - I had to do what I could to keep him out if the alternative was less bad. Which this present government is. (I was also fortunate that the Wakefield Tory candidate has the potential to make a very good MP and minister).

    But a grudging negative vote shouldn't be confused with the level of popular enthusiasm Republicans have for Trump. Like I say in the piece, a net rating of +89 is not just a "stop Bernie / whoever"; that's very pro-Trump in and of itself.
  • Superb piece by David. It deserves, but won't get, a wide readership in the US.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kinabalu said:

    Your first job is to get a large, statistically unbiased sample of Remainers & Leavers, without any selection effects. How did you do that?

    Your second job is to quantify "the median quality" of people "as people" (whatever that means) into some measure that a statistically survey can record.

    You have done all this, and have "overwhelming evidence".

    Let's see your evidence.

    That is daunting. I can't do it. But it would constitute an interesting and worthwhile exercise for somebody IMO. Perhaps a PHD if funding could be arranged. I wonder - serious question - if a study along these lines would be deemed appropriate for that? The value is obvious but I can imagine that it might be thought to be unPC and divisive.
    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bjso.12359?af=R

    And, what a wonderful conclusion. We are all in the Big Tent together, and there is not so much difference after all.
  • On topic, what we are seeing is a descent into tribalism. Standards of governance decline sharply when the tribe is seen as more important than the standard.

    As others have said, Leavers have descended into such a tribe, ignoring Boris Johnson’s manifest unsuitability because they considered Brexit to be more important. One or two shed a few crocodile tears but if they actually cared about governance standards they wouldn’t have voted for him.

    Interestingly, enough Remainers have not yet made that descent, refusing to give Jeremy Corbyn support to block Brexit. Those who submitted to the judgment of Solomon have found themselves ignored and derided since. Virtue has not been rewarded.

    The lesson they will learn is that tribalism pays. The country will suffer more accordingly.

    So Remainers just better people then? Yes, I see the light now. We Leavers all better just shut up, know our place, and defer to our betters. Would you like us to bow or is doffing our caps sufficient?
    Leavers lined up to a man behind a candidate who was manifestly unsuitable from his track record. Enough Remainers did not do the same to hand victory to the Conservatives.

    You might argue that Jeremy Corbyn was even more unsuitable than Boris Johnson (I’d regard it as being a dead heat). But I don’t think you can argue that happened.

    As for morality, Leavers will just have to decide for themselves whether handing untrammelled power to someone who has already tried to suspend democracy once was wise. The rest of us have to live with their tribal choice.
    So, bowing then? I just feel privileged to be able to interact with someone so much better than me.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    FPT - Government's seem to be unable to resist constantly attacking pension tax relief.

    It ends with people not saving enough into their pensions and becoming a burden on the State.

    Yes, I was heavily hit by the Annual Allowance Charge, had to reduce my clinical sessions as a result. In the Tory manifesto they promised to do something about it. Not for the better it seems!

  • Foxy said:

    FPT - Government's seem to be unable to resist constantly attacking pension tax relief.

    It ends with people not saving enough into their pensions and becoming a burden on the State.

    Yes, I was heavily hit by the Annual Allowance Charge, had to reduce my clinical sessions as a result. In the Tory manifesto they promised to do something about it. Not for the better it seems!

    Those are two different things, surely? The people not saving enough and becoming burdens on the state can have little in common with those sitting on million pound pension pots and facing disincentives to work owing to cliff-edge effects.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    I don't think that's true either.

    You're making a values judgement, which reeks of confirmation bias.

    I'm actually rather surprised that you wouldn't agree with my modest and qualified assessment. If I were to blindly link the Remain value to "quality" of person - per say and primer facey - I'd be opining that almost all Remainers are better people than almost all Leavers. Which I'm absolutely not.
  • kinabalu said:

    I don't think that's true either.

    You're making a values judgement, which reeks of confirmation bias.

    I'm actually rather surprised that you wouldn't agree with my modest and qualified assessment. If I were to blindly link the Remain value to "quality" of person - per say and primer facey - I'd be opining that almost all Remainers are better people than almost all Leavers. Which I'm absolutely not.
    I think your post was partially fair.

    But, I don't think you can say that Remainers are on average better than Leavers.

    There are bigots on both sides.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Trump's ratings went up after this impeachment as did Bill Clinton's in the late 90s as the public, probably correctly, saw it as motivated by partisan motives rather than anything genuinely worthy of impeachment like Watergate with Nixon and Senators followed suit by voting to acquit even if the more partisan opposition controlled House voted to impeach.
  • Not funny. Some of us are waiting to be paid.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Remainers just better people then? Yes, I see the light now. We Leavers all better just shut up, know our place, and defer to our betters. Would you like us to bow or is doffing our caps sufficient?

    It would be both ludicrous and offensive to say baldly that "Remainers are better people than Leavers" with no context or qualification. There are large numbers of Leavers who are better people than large numbers of Remainers. There is no doubt about that. However, is the median quality of Remainers (as people) materially higher than that of Leavers? That would be an undeniable yes. The evidence for it is overwhelming.
    What evidence is that, other than that they agree with you?
    The polling that showed Brexiteers were prepared to the destroy the Union and the Northern Ireland peace process so they could have Brexit.
    Well they've damaged the union and it's likely that the peace process is going to accelerate towards reunion.
    Except Boris has got round that problem by refusing to grant the SNP indyref2 as per the Tory manifesto for his full term while the Withdrawal Agreement protects the peace process in Northern Ireland and the GFA and while the DUP remains the largest party in Northern Ireland and Unionist parties continue to get more votes than Nationalist parties there is zero chance of a border poll anyway
  • Alastair is wrong to castigate voters for preferring Boris to Corbyn. That is an entirely reasonable and honourable decision to make,. The unreasonable and dishonourable decision was the Conservative Party choosing Boris over Hunt or one of the other contenders.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    Foxy said:

    FPT - Government's seem to be unable to resist constantly attacking pension tax relief.

    It ends with people not saving enough into their pensions and becoming a burden on the State.

    Yes, I was heavily hit by the Annual Allowance Charge, had to reduce my clinical sessions as a result. In the Tory manifesto they promised to do something about it. Not for the better it seems!

    Those are two different things, surely? The people not saving enough and becoming burdens on the state can have little in common with those sitting on million pound pension pots and facing disincentives to work owing to cliff-edge effects.
    Indeed and at least compulsory workplace pensions help tackle the former
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    Alastair is wrong to castigate voters for preferring Boris to Corbyn. That is an entirely reasonable and honourable decision to make,. The unreasonable and dishonourable decision was the Conservative Party choosing Boris over Hunt or one of the other contenders.

    Would Hunt have got a big majority against Corbyn as Boris did? In my view no, he probably would have extended again and stuck largely to the May Deal and still lost lots of votes to the Brexit Party
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    edited February 2020

    Revocation was a dumb policy. The problem was clarity but that people knew about it, putting off every shade of Leaver and many moderate Remainers.

    But worse than that was the stupidity. The odds on a Lib Dem straight General Election triumph were an order of magnitude longer than getting a second referendum (and Remain winning it). But the revocation policy put off plenty of people whilst at the same time being very unlikely to ever happen yet being front and centre of the Lib Dem platform on the EU.

    Not unlike 'Little Englander' and 'back of the queue' it was an entirely needless own goal at a time when the Lib Dems were enjoying some defections and had some momentum going.

    Edited extra bit: ahem, the problem was not* clarity etc etc.

    Bizarre bit of editing - why not just insert the missing 'not' in the original sentence?
  • Mr. Pointer, Morris Dancer.

    Edited extra bit: edits as he pleases.
  • HYUFD said:

    Trump's ratings went up after this impeachment as did Bill Clinton's in the late 90s as the public, probably correctly, saw it as motivated by partisan motives rather than anything genuinely worthy of impeachment like Watergate with Nixon and Senators followed suit by voting to acquit even if the more partisan opposition controlled House voted to impeach.

    If the Senate had heard the evidence and then acquitted, that would be one thing. Refusing to hear the witnesses makes it clear this was a partisan charade.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    edited February 2020
    Debate last night: Sounds like the other candidates were warning how divisive a Sanders run would be.
  • The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    So Remainers just better people then? Yes, I see the light now. We Leavers all better just shut up, know our place, and defer to our betters. Would you like us to bow or is doffing our caps sufficient?

    It would be both ludicrous and offensive to say baldly that "Remainers are better people than Leavers" with no context or qualification. There are large numbers of Leavers who are better people than large numbers of Remainers. There is no doubt about that. However, is the median quality of Remainers (as people) materially higher than that of Leavers? That would be an undeniable yes. The evidence for it is overwhelming.
    What evidence is that, other than that they agree with you?
    The polling that showed Brexiteers were prepared to the destroy the Union and the Northern Ireland peace process so they could have Brexit.
    Well they've damaged the union and it's likely that the peace process is going to accelerate towards reunion.
    Except Boris has got round that problem by refusing to grant the SNP indyref2 as per the Tory manifesto for his full term while the Withdrawal Agreement protects the peace process in Northern Ireland and the GFA and while the DUP remains the largest party in Northern Ireland and Unionist parties continue to get more votes than Nationalist parties there is zero chance of a border poll anyway
    I wasn't talking about Scotland - more the fact you will need paperwork to export into the UK from Northern Ireland.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    On topic, what we are seeing is a descent into tribalism. Standards of governance decline sharply when the tribe is seen as more important than the standard.

    As others have said, Leavers have descended into such a tribe, ignoring Boris Johnson’s manifest unsuitability because they considered Brexit to be more important. One or two shed a few crocodile tears but if they actually cared about governance standards they wouldn’t have voted for him.

    Interestingly, enough Remainers have not yet made that descent, refusing to give Jeremy Corbyn support to block Brexit. Those who submitted to the judgment of Solomon have found themselves ignored and derided since. Virtue has not been rewarded.

    The lesson they will learn is that tribalism pays. The country will suffer more accordingly.

    Blimey Al, you are probably the only person on here who still calls everyone Leavers and Remainers in a pejorative way, It's some call to accuse others of descending into tribalism. That post has genuinely taken my breath away
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,905

    On topic, what we are seeing is a descent into tribalism. Standards of governance decline sharply when the tribe is seen as more important than the standard.

    As others have said, Leavers have descended into such a tribe, ignoring Boris Johnson’s manifest unsuitability because they considered Brexit to be more important. One or two shed a few crocodile tears but if they actually cared about governance standards they wouldn’t have voted for him.

    Interestingly, enough Remainers have not yet made that descent, refusing to give Jeremy Corbyn support to block Brexit. Those who submitted to the judgment of Solomon have found themselves ignored and derided since. Virtue has not been rewarded.

    The lesson they will learn is that tribalism pays. The country will suffer more accordingly.

    "Leavers have descended into such a tribe, ignoring Boris Johnson’s manifest unsuitability because they considered Brexit to be more important."
    The voters have decided that Boris Johnson was manifestly suitable to give an 80 seat majority. You are the one out of line.
    No, they decided that Jeremy Corbyn was manifestly unsuitable and voted accordingly. Please try to keep up.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited February 2020
    Cannot believe what I'm reading re Trump and Impeachment on this thread.

    Using the leverage of US taxpayer money and military aid he attempted to blackmail the leader of a small and needy foreign country into digging for dirt on and smearing a political opponent in order to improve his re-election prospects.

    And we are shrugging wearily and saying this is just par for the course? Really not something to get worked up about? Nothing serious and certainly not meriting Impeachment?

    C'mon!

    It is slam dunk corruption of the first order. You are being gas-lighted. You're succumbing to it. I implore people to wake up and raise their standards back to where I'm sure they once were.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,942
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    FPT - Government's seem to be unable to resist constantly attacking pension tax relief.

    It ends with people not saving enough into their pensions and becoming a burden on the State.

    Yes, I was heavily hit by the Annual Allowance Charge, had to reduce my clinical sessions as a result. In the Tory manifesto they promised to do something about it. Not for the better it seems!

    Those are two different things, surely? The people not saving enough and becoming burdens on the state can have little in common with those sitting on million pound pension pots and facing disincentives to work owing to cliff-edge effects.
    Indeed and at least compulsory workplace pensions help tackle the former
    It might also help if more were done to simplify pensions at the retirement end. Currently we expect unsophisticated investors to choose between annuity sellers and the other options. Most people have neither the experience or knowledge on which to base such decisions. The government should imo offer retirees a Treasury-backed option along the lines of an annuity or tracker, to be paid along with the state pension.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    edited February 2020
    kinabalu said:

    I don't think that's true either.

    You're making a values judgement, which reeks of confirmation bias.

    I'm actually rather surprised that you wouldn't agree with my modest and qualified assessment. If I were to blindly link the Remain value to "quality" of person - per say and primer facey - I'd be opining that almost all Remainers are better people than almost all Leavers. Which I'm absolutely not.
    Okay, I'm going to wade into this. It's probably unwise, as given the backdrop of the last few years, it's probably impossible (in any community) to have a calm balanced discussion about the relative merits of the median Remainer and Leaver. No amount of caveats about the variation within each group being much greater than the difference in the median will prevent heckles from being raised.

    I've little doubt that the median Remainer has more similar values to me than the median Leaver. In that sense, I would have a more favourable view of them. But "similar values" is a poor indicator of quality. So too is high achievement in a job etc.

    Defining quality is really difficult, but a decent one might be "who would be more likely to help a stranger in need, at some cost to themselves?" I have no idea about the answer to that (and even if the stranger were an immigrant, I would still have no idea). If I tried, I could come up with criteria where I would guess the median Remainer would do better: "who would be more likely to stand up against bullying of a vulnerable person?" and ones where I would guess the median Leaver would do better: "who would be more likely to keep an eye out for their elderly next door neighbour?"

    Overall, I wouldn't be confident either way, even if I could satisfy myself that I had a decent definition.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    kinabalu said:

    Cannot believe what I'm reading re Trump and Impeachment on this thread.

    Using the leverage of US taxpayer money and military aid he attempted to blackmail the leader of a small and needy foreign country into digging for dirt on and smearing a political opponent in order to improve his re-election prospects.

    And we are shrugging wearily and saying this is just par for the course? Really not something to get worked up about? Nothing serious and certainly not meriting Impeachment?

    C'mon!

    It is slam dunk corruption of the first order. You are being gas-lighted. You're succumbing to it. I implore people to wake up and raise their standards back to where I'm sure they once were.

    You're right, of course.

    I have to admit that I am shrugging wearily though. Mainly because his opponents keep playing into his hands. I wish that they would prioritise getting rid of him over being seen to be trying to get rid of him.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Revocation was a dumb policy. The problem was clarity but that people knew about it, putting off every shade of Leaver and many moderate Remainers.

    But worse than that was the stupidity. The odds on a Lib Dem straight General Election triumph were an order of magnitude longer than getting a second referendum (and Remain winning it). But the revocation policy put off plenty of people whilst at the same time being very unlikely to ever happen yet being front and centre of the Lib Dem platform on the EU.

    Not unlike 'Little Englander' and 'back of the queue' it was an entirely needless own goal at a time when the Lib Dems were enjoying some defections and had some momentum going.

    Edited extra bit: ahem, the problem was not* clarity etc etc.

    Bizarre bit of editing - why not just insert the missing 'not' in the original sentence?
    Perhaps MD believes in transparency? ;)
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    To some extent, I think the descent into tribalism on both sides of the Atlantic is at least partly due to the 50/50 split between the two tribes. Neither side has a decisive advantage (or at least not until the last election here) so both sides are insecure and as a result are OK with dirty tricks as long as it helps their side. You then create a vicious circle, with more and more people getting pissed off at the other side, so fighting dirtier and dirtier. Governments without a working majority here are often times of discreditable political manoeuvrings - see 1992-7 as well as 2015-9. (I would add the Brown government after its honeymoon to that - it had a working majority but was obviously moribund).

    Perhaps, with Labour crushed and the Conservatives triumphant, we can break this feedback loop here.

    Not sure what would break it in the US though - it has been going on since at least the 1994 midterms there.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    This is even ignoring that fact that what Biden wanted the Ukariane to do was investigate the company his son was working for. If you listened to Trump you would think Biden was trying to stop an investigation.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,720

    Foxy said:

    FPT - Government's seem to be unable to resist constantly attacking pension tax relief.

    It ends with people not saving enough into their pensions and becoming a burden on the State.

    Yes, I was heavily hit by the Annual Allowance Charge, had to reduce my clinical sessions as a result. In the Tory manifesto they promised to do something about it. Not for the better it seems!

    Those are two different things, surely? The people not saving enough and becoming burdens on the state can have little in common with those sitting on million pound pension pots and facing disincentives to work owing to cliff-edge effects.
    Yes, but the Tories did promise to do something about the taper of the pensions allowance. Withdrawing higher rate relief instead of tapering would be a step in the right direction as far as my own circumstances are concerned. Worse for some others of course.

    I am reasonably content to pay higher taxes to fund spending, rather than deficit spending and worsening austerity. I am yet to be convinced that Javid will win the battle. Johnson is the sort of impulsive spendthrift that will not like tax rises.
  • The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Alastair is wrong to castigate voters for preferring Boris to Corbyn. That is an entirely reasonable and honourable decision to make,. The unreasonable and dishonourable decision was the Conservative Party choosing Boris over Hunt or one of the other contenders.

    I disagree. If I had had a vote I would have gone for Hunt.

    However, Johnson’s strategy was to use the *threat* of no deal to force a resolution

    You may disagree with the tactics or argue that we got a worse outcome but it’s not “unreasonable and dishonourable” of people to form a different view to you
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mr. Pointer, Morris Dancer.

    Edited extra bit: edits as he pleases.

    Can you provide evidence for your claim that Mr Pointer is a Morris dancer?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/bjso.12359?af=R

    And, what a wonderful conclusion. We are all in the Big Tent together, and there is not so much difference after all.

    Oh yes. There is far more that unites us than divides us.

    Including agreement with that statement.

    That just has to be a wrap.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    kicorse said:

    Fishing said:

    kinabalu said:



    There is no doubt about that. However, is the median quality of Remainers (as people) materially higher than that of Leavers? That would be an undeniable yes. The evidence for it is overwhelming.

    Your first job is to get a large, statistically unbiased sample of Remainers & Leavers, without any selection effects. How did you do that?

    Your second job is to quantify "the median quality" of people "as people" (whatever that means) into some measure that a statistically survey can record.

    You have done all this, and have "overwhelming evidence".

    Let's see your evidence.
    Don't feed the troll. It is not his lunchtime yet.
    Kinabula is not a troll.

    He has an engaging woolliness of thinking. Which I quite like.
    Indeed! Pretty much the antithesis of a troll. Consistently reasonable and open to criticism.
    OK, I apologise to Mr Kinabalu. I try and avoid personal comments on this site and failed this time. I agree he or she is usually reasonable and polite. But I have not seen "overwhelming" evidence that Remainers are higher quality people than Leavers. Leavers tend to be more tolerant of Remainers than the opposite.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kicorse said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't think that's true either.

    You're making a values judgement, which reeks of confirmation bias.

    I'm actually rather surprised that you wouldn't agree with my modest and qualified assessment. If I were to blindly link the Remain value to "quality" of person - per say and primer facey - I'd be opining that almost all Remainers are better people than almost all Leavers. Which I'm absolutely not.
    Okay, I'm going to wade into this. It's probably unwise, as given the backdrop of the last few years, it's probably impossible (in any community) to have a calm balanced discussion about the relative merits of the median Remainer and Leaver. No amount of caveats about the variation within each group being much greater than the difference in the median will prevent heckles from being raised.

    I've little doubt that the median Remainer has more similar values to me than the median Leaver. In that sense, I would have a more favourable view of them. But "similar values" is a poor indicator of quality. So too is high achievement in a job etc.

    Defining quality is really difficult, but a decent one might be "who would be more likely to help a stranger in need, at some cost to themselves?" I have no idea about the answer to that (and even if the stranger were an immigrant, I would still have no idea). If I tried, I could come up with criteria where I would guess the median Remainer would do better: "who would be more likely to stand up against bullying of a vulnerable person?" and ones where I would guess the median Leaver would do better: "who would be more likely to keep an eye out for their elderly next door neighbour?"

    Overall, I wouldn't be confident either way, even if I could satisfy myself that I had a decent definition.
    Don’t forget that the Good Samaritan was a Tory

    https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/2914-no-one-would-remember-the-good-samaritan-if-he-d-only-had
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Foxy said:

    FPT - Government's seem to be unable to resist constantly attacking pension tax relief.

    It ends with people not saving enough into their pensions and becoming a burden on the State.

    Yes, I was heavily hit by the Annual Allowance Charge, had to reduce my clinical sessions as a result. In the Tory manifesto they promised to do something about it. Not for the better it seems!

    You chose to reduce your clinical sessions you did not have to reduce them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,769
    edited February 2020
    James Carville speaks:


    "I’ll just say it this way: The fate of the world depends on the Democrats getting their shit together and winning in November. We have to beat Trump. And so far, I don’t like what I see. And a lot of people I talk to feel the same way."

    "Look, Bernie Sanders isn’t a Democrat. He’s never been a Democrat. He’s an ideologue. And I’ve been clear about this: If Bernie is the nominee, I’ll vote for him. No question. I’ll take an ideological fanatic over a career criminal any day. But he’s not a Democrat."

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2020/2/7/21123518/trump-2020-election-democratic-party-james-carville?__twitter_impression=true
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    Charles said:

    kicorse said:

    kinabalu said:

    I don't think that's true either.

    You're making a values judgement, which reeks of confirmation bias.

    I'm actually rather surprised that you wouldn't agree with my modest and qualified assessment. If I were to blindly link the Remain value to "quality" of person - per say and primer facey - I'd be opining that almost all Remainers are better people than almost all Leavers. Which I'm absolutely not.
    Okay, I'm going to wade into this. It's probably unwise, as given the backdrop of the last few years, it's probably impossible (in any community) to have a calm balanced discussion about the relative merits of the median Remainer and Leaver. No amount of caveats about the variation within each group being much greater than the difference in the median will prevent heckles from being raised.

    I've little doubt that the median Remainer has more similar values to me than the median Leaver. In that sense, I would have a more favourable view of them. But "similar values" is a poor indicator of quality. So too is high achievement in a job etc.

    Defining quality is really difficult, but a decent one might be "who would be more likely to help a stranger in need, at some cost to themselves?" I have no idea about the answer to that (and even if the stranger were an immigrant, I would still have no idea). If I tried, I could come up with criteria where I would guess the median Remainer would do better: "who would be more likely to stand up against bullying of a vulnerable person?" and ones where I would guess the median Leaver would do better: "who would be more likely to keep an eye out for their elderly next door neighbour?"

    Overall, I wouldn't be confident either way, even if I could satisfy myself that I had a decent definition.
    Don’t forget that the Good Samaritan was a Tory

    https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/2914-no-one-would-remember-the-good-samaritan-if-he-d-only-had
    Nice! I love how she talks about the Good Samaritan as if he was a real person. But that's a story we could definitely re-interpret through a Remain prism:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OIVB3DdRgqU
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Sean_F said:

    It's rather a bold claim to equate high achievement with virtue. Certainly, most leading financiers are Remainers, but would you say they are virtuous?

    Did not single out Finance. Most leading "insert occupation" were Remainers.

    As to whether high achievers are on average "better" people than low achievers - mmm that does go into waters best left unpaddled.

    For now anyway. It would make for an interesting topic at some point.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    I’ve already bought an extra chest freezer for emergency pineapple pizzas.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    Maybe the spread of the Coronavirus is linked to the decision to Leave being implemented?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868

    James Carville speaks:


    "I’ll just say it this way: The fate of the world depends on the Democrats getting their shit together and winning in November. We have to beat Trump. And so far, I don’t like what I see. And a lot of people I talk to feel the same way."

    "Look, Bernie Sanders isn’t a Democrat. He’s never been a Democrat. He’s an ideologue. And I’ve been clear about this: If Bernie is the nominee, I’ll vote for him. No question. I’ll take an ideological fanatic over a career criminal any day. But he’s not a Democrat."

    https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2020/2/7/21123518/trump-2020-election-democratic-party-james-carville?__twitter_impression=true

    This is the kind of shit that really turns ordinary voters off. They said it about Brexit, Trump the first time, Labour always use this 24h to save the NHS stuff. It never works, the world doesn't end and everyone gets on with their lives.

    It's like those doomsday cults, every time one of their idiotic predictions doesn't come off they go back and cone up with a new date. No one believes them and no one is going to buy into the rhetoric that another four years of Trump will be the end of the world.
  • RobD said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    I’ve already bought an extra chest freezer for emergency pineapple pizzas.
    That's nothing.

    I'm now growing pineapples*.

    (*come on English climate)
  • isam said:

    matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    Maybe the spread of the Coronavirus is linked to the decision to Leave being implemented?
    The worrying thing is that some people won't think that's a joke.
  • matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    This is just so we can fully self-isolate without the risk of shopping or deliveries coming to the house.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited February 2020
    kicorse said:

    Okay, I'm going to wade into this. It's probably unwise, as given the backdrop of the last few years, it's probably impossible (in any community) to have a calm balanced discussion about the relative merits of the median Remainer and Leaver. No amount of caveats about the variation within each group being much greater than the difference in the median will prevent heckles from being raised.

    I've little doubt that the median Remainer has more similar values to me than the median Leaver. In that sense, I would have a more favourable view of them. But "similar values" is a poor indicator of quality. So too is high achievement in a job etc.

    Defining quality is really difficult, but a decent one might be "who would be more likely to help a stranger in need, at some cost to themselves?" I have no idea about the answer to that (and even if the stranger were an immigrant, I would still have no idea). If I tried, I could come up with criteria where I would guess the median Remainer would do better: "who would be more likely to stand up against bullying of a vulnerable person?" and ones where I would guess the median Leaver would do better: "who would be more likely to keep an eye out for their elderly next door neighbour?"

    Overall, I wouldn't be confident either way, even if I could satisfy myself that I had a decent definition.

    Excellent post. I do like that idea of posing different tests of virtue, some of which Rs might score higher in and others where Ls do better. Again, a PHD or other impartially funded study beckons for somebody. One test I can think of where Ls would probably IMO "win" would be "If you come across somebody being rude and mouthy in a public space, would you step in and punch their lights out?"
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    kinabalu said:

    Cannot believe what I'm reading re Trump and Impeachment on this thread.

    Using the leverage of US taxpayer money and military aid he attempted to blackmail the leader of a small and needy foreign country into digging for dirt on and smearing a political opponent in order to improve his re-election prospects.

    And we are shrugging wearily and saying this is just par for the course? Really not something to get worked up about? Nothing serious and certainly not meriting Impeachment?

    C'mon!

    It is slam dunk corruption of the first order. You are being gas-lighted. You're succumbing to it. I implore people to wake up and raise their standards back to where I'm sure they once were.

    Yes there are lot of shameful and ignorant comments on this thread, and they are buying into the Trump and GOP arguments, which are laughable given Trump's repeated self-incrimination. He got caught red-handed, but the GOP Senators were too cowardly to do their duty. Anyone who defends this has something wrong with them.

    We live in a world were Mitt Romney was the GOP candidate in 2012 and eight years later he is one of only a handful of Republicans who will admit that Trump is a crook. This is not normal, what is going on is not par for the course. The GOP has lost its mind and any moral authority, and they are backing a man who many of them wanted to stop dead in his tracks just four years ago. The damage being done to America by the Trump Presidency is huge.
  • matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    This is just so we can fully self-isolate without the risk of shopping or deliveries coming to the house.
    2 weeks wont be enough though will it? Could be months.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    Everyone seems to forget she is the ex-ex-MP for Durham NW and left to provide the great left hopes a seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    glw said:

    kinabalu said:

    Cannot believe what I'm reading re Trump and Impeachment on this thread.

    Using the leverage of US taxpayer money and military aid he attempted to blackmail the leader of a small and needy foreign country into digging for dirt on and smearing a political opponent in order to improve his re-election prospects.

    And we are shrugging wearily and saying this is just par for the course? Really not something to get worked up about? Nothing serious and certainly not meriting Impeachment?

    C'mon!

    It is slam dunk corruption of the first order. You are being gas-lighted. You're succumbing to it. I implore people to wake up and raise their standards back to where I'm sure they once were.

    Yes there are lot of shameful and ignorant comments on this thread, and they are buying into the Trump and GOP arguments, which are laughable given Trump's repeated self-incrimination. He got caught red-handed, but the GOP Senators were too cowardly to do their duty. Anyone who defends this has something wrong with them.

    We live in a world were Mitt Romney was the GOP candidate in 2012 and eight years later he is one of only a handful of Republicans who will admit that Trump is a crook. This is not normal, what is going on is not par for the course. The GOP has lost its mind and any moral authority, and they are backing a man who many of them wanted to stop dead in his tracks just four years ago. The damage being done to America by the Trump Presidency is huge.
    That is surely up to the voters to decide in November, as far as I am concerned there is little different to what Trump was accused of doing and Bill Clinton was accused of doing, neither were grounds for impeachment even if lacking judgement. As the polling makes clear like Clinton's Trump's approval rating has actually increased since the impeachment process began
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Fishing said:

    OK, I apologise to Mr Kinabalu. I try and avoid personal comments on this site and failed this time. I agree he or she is usually reasonable and polite. But I have not seen "overwhelming" evidence that Remainers are higher quality people than Leavers. Leavers tend to be more tolerant of Remainers than the opposite.

    Well not needed but accepted anyway. Onwards and upwards. :smile:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    No, we are now storing for Dec 31st
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    This is just so we can fully self-isolate without the risk of shopping or deliveries coming to the house.
    Ocado. Have them leave the bags outside the door and communicate with the driver only through the letterbox? A practical solution.
  • matt said:

    matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    This is just so we can fully self-isolate without the risk of shopping or deliveries coming to the house.
    Ocado. Have them leave the bags outside the door and communicate with the driver only through the letterbox? A practical solution.
    The bags will have been handled.
  • Alistair said:

    matt said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    You should speak to some of the people who bulk bought lavatory rolls, dried beans and tins of spaghetti to trade following Brexit date. They should be willing to listen to offers.
    No, we are now storing for Dec 31st
    And now virus.

    I may need to buy next door at this rate.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited February 2020
    kicorse said:

    Indeed! Pretty much the antithesis of a troll. Consistently reasonable and open to criticism.

    Thank you! Although I have noticed that you are a fair bit more calm and reasonable than I am. Fact is, PB is steadily drifting to the Right since "Boris" and his "80" so it's harder for Left leaning Constructs like you and me to keep heads above water - glug glug.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    kinabalu said:

    Cannot believe what I'm reading re Trump and Impeachment on this thread.

    Using the leverage of US taxpayer money and military aid he attempted to blackmail the leader of a small and needy foreign country into digging for dirt on and smearing a political opponent in order to improve his re-election prospects.

    And we are shrugging wearily and saying this is just par for the course? Really not something to get worked up about? Nothing serious and certainly not meriting Impeachment?

    C'mon!

    It is slam dunk corruption of the first order. You are being gas-lighted. You're succumbing to it. I implore people to wake up and raise their standards back to where I'm sure they once were.

    I respectfully disagree. What we know is that the son of a vice President of the US had been appointed to a very lucrative directorship of a Ukranian company that he was apparently completely unqualified for. So there was at least a prima facie case that Ukraine had bribed an important member of the previous administration to get US assistance. The current President wanted them to come clean on that before giving them more assistance. Of course he was far from disinterested in doing so but at the time Biden was not running for anything. The way he did it and his motives are both highly questionable but "high crimes and misdemeanors"? I think not.
  • In case anyone missed this. Campaigns have until noon, Monday to lodge an issues about the result in Iowa.

    https://twitter.com/troymprice/status/1225857368250101760
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    RobD said:

    You have to be a high achiever to be a good person? What are you smoking.

    I think YOU must be smoking something exciting to derive that from anything I've said!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    Fishing said:

    kicorse said:

    Fishing said:

    kinabalu said:



    There is no doubt about that. However, is the median quality of Remainers (as people) materially higher than that of Leavers? That would be an undeniable yes. The evidence for it is overwhelming.

    Your first job is to get a large, statistically unbiased sample of Remainers & Leavers, without any selection effects. How did you do that?

    Your second job is to quantify "the median quality" of people "as people" (whatever that means) into some measure that a statistically survey can record.

    You have done all this, and have "overwhelming evidence".

    Let's see your evidence.
    Don't feed the troll. It is not his lunchtime yet.
    Kinabula is not a troll.

    He has an engaging woolliness of thinking. Which I quite like.
    Indeed! Pretty much the antithesis of a troll. Consistently reasonable and open to criticism.
    OK, I apologise to Mr Kinabalu. I try and avoid personal comments on this site and failed this time. I agree he or she is usually reasonable and polite. But I have not seen "overwhelming" evidence that Remainers are higher quality people than Leavers. Leavers tend to be more tolerant of Remainers than the opposite.
    I have little doubt that the overwhelming majority of reasonable people agree with me on everything. I mean I am a reasonable person so it stands to reason doesn't it?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    kinabalu said:

    kicorse said:

    Indeed! Pretty much the antithesis of a troll. Consistently reasonable and open to criticism.

    Thank you! Although I have noticed that you are a fair bit more calm and reasonable than I am. Fact is, PB is steadily drifting to the Right since "Boris" and his "80" so it's harder for Left leaning Constructs like you and me to keep heads above water - glug glug.
    I really don't think I see that unless you equiperate leave with right. Which would be wrong and a mistake that cost Labour dear.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    Not necessarily, Trump won Iowa by 9% in 2016 over Hillary, Trump could lose and still win Iowa
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    Buttigieg and Biden look the Democrats best bet to beat Trump then
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg and Biden look the Democrats best bet to beat Trump then
    I think the Biden campaign will end after South Carolina.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Layla Moran is to say the LDs failed to properly explain their Brexit policy at the GE, which seems very odd to me. Surely the positive thing about their policy is how easy it was to understand?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51413562

    "It made us look arrogant, and it made us look stupid," she says. Quite.
    But I dont see how she thinks it would look less arrogant or stupid if it were 'properly explained'. Isnt that just saying it only looked stupid and arrogant because the public didnt understand? So she thinks the policy itself was just fine.

    I'll be in interested to hear how much more simply she thinks the policy could have been explained.
    It could have been explained thus:

    Our policy is a second referendum on Johnson's deal versus Remain. In the unlikely and magical event of an overall LibDem majority we would take that as clear evidence of a massive switch to Remain among voters and revoke without the delay and expense of a referendum.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Layla Moran is to say the LDs failed to properly explain their Brexit policy at the GE, which seems very odd to me. Surely the positive thing about their policy is how easy it was to understand?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51413562

    "It made us look arrogant, and it made us look stupid," she says. Quite.
    But I dont see how she thinks it would look less arrogant or stupid if it were 'properly explained'. Isnt that just saying it only looked stupid and arrogant because the public didnt understand? So she thinks the policy itself was just fine.

    I'll be in interested to hear how much more simply she thinks the policy could have been explained.
    It could have been explained thus:

    Our policy is a second referendum on Johnson's deal versus Remain. In the unlikely and magical event of an overall LibDem majority we would take that as clear evidence of a massive switch to Remain among voters and revoke without the delay and expense of a referendum.
    C.f., Get Brexit Done.

    3 words versus 45.

    If you want my opinion, the LibDems were misled after the 2019 Euros & devised a mistaken policy in its heady aftermath.

    They weren't the only ones misled. Leo is looking at the 2019 Euro result right now

    FG 29.6 %
    FF 16.6 %
    SF 11.7 %

    and wondering where it all went wrong for him as well .... as he waits for the voters to boot him out today.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited February 2020
    DavidL said:

    I really don't think I see that unless you equiperate leave with right. Which would be wrong and a mistake that cost Labour dear.

    But there IS a very strong correlation here between Leave and Right (of centre). Of the many Leavers we have I can only right now think of @SandyRentool and @bigjohnowls and @Wulfrun_Phil who identify as dressing Left. Might be a couple I'm omitting but still.

    And on top of that several Leftish constructs (who were anyway a minority) have stopped posting regularly. @Noo @Recidivist @Stereotomy @TheJezziah ...

    But it's fine. I'm not complaining about it. I've only been on here a year or so myself and for all I know these are normal fluctuations.
  • kinabalu said:

    Cannot believe what I'm reading re Trump and Impeachment on this thread.

    Using the leverage of US taxpayer money and military aid he attempted to blackmail the leader of a small and needy foreign country into digging for dirt on and smearing a political opponent in order to improve his re-election prospects.

    And we are shrugging wearily and saying this is just par for the course? Really not something to get worked up about? Nothing serious and certainly not meriting Impeachment?

    C'mon!

    It is slam dunk corruption of the first order. You are being gas-lighted. You're succumbing to it. I implore people to wake up and raise their standards back to where I'm sure they once were.

    Dirty Donald :lol:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg and Biden look the Democrats best bet to beat Trump then
    I think the Biden campaign will end after South Carolina.
    If he loses yes, if Biden wins South Carolina he will press on
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    New cases are no longer growing exponentially. In fact the second derivative (i.e. the rate of growth of the rate of growth) has turned negative. It looks like the measures to control it are very effective.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,468

    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Layla Moran is to say the LDs failed to properly explain their Brexit policy at the GE, which seems very odd to me. Surely the positive thing about their policy is how easy it was to understand?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51413562

    "It made us look arrogant, and it made us look stupid," she says. Quite.
    But I dont see how she thinks it would look less arrogant or stupid if it were 'properly explained'. Isnt that just saying it only looked stupid and arrogant because the public didnt understand? So she thinks the policy itself was just fine.

    I'll be in interested to hear how much more simply she thinks the policy could have been explained.
    It could have been explained thus:

    Our policy is a second referendum on Johnson's deal versus Remain. In the unlikely and magical event of an overall LibDem majority we would take that as clear evidence of a massive switch to Remain among voters and revoke without the delay and expense of a referendum.
    C.f., Get Brexit Done.

    3 words versus 45.

    If you want my opinion, the LibDems were misled after the 2019 Euros & devised a mistaken policy in its heady aftermath.

    As you suggest, enough of a tired electorate said 'sod it, just do it"
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg and Biden look the Democrats best bet to beat Trump then
    I think the Biden campaign will end after South Carolina.
    If he loses yes, if Biden wins South Carolina he will press on
    Note, this was a poll in Iowa. Not a national poll.
  • Comrades, we will double down as we head to inevitable victory over our class enemies.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg and Biden look the Democrats best bet to beat Trump then
    I think the Biden campaign will end after South Carolina.
    If he loses yes, if Biden wins South Carolina he will press on
    I think he will lose. Iowa was a disaster for him and NH doesn't look much better. Polling when he had a big name advantage is meaningless. His campaign is going nowhere.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,835
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    I really don't think I see that unless you equiperate leave with right. Which would be wrong and a mistake that cost Labour dear.

    But there IS a very strong correlation here between Leave and Right (of centre). Of the many Leavers we have I can only right now think of @SandyRentool and @bigjohnowls and @Wulfrun_Phil who identify as dressing Left. Might be a couple I'm omitting but still.

    And on top of that several Leftish constructs (who were anyway a minority) have stopped posting regularly. @Noo @Recidivist @Stereotomy @TheJezziah ...

    But it's fine. I'm not complaining about it. I've only been on here a year or so myself and for all I know these are normal fluctuations.
    I've always maintained that this site's posters are fairly representative of the national polls. I think that's still broadly true. But we're much more middle class than the nation as a whole, and we're particularly lacking in the broad WWC small town red wall demographic.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Kinabula is not a troll.

    He has an engaging woolliness of thinking. Which I quite like.

    Well I do like that "Kinabula" spelling, I must say! Let's stick with that. And thank you for most kind sentiments and recognition of my non-trollity.

    But I do reject the "woolly thinking" charge obvs. I like to meander and roam but there is a cold clean streak of ruthless logic running throughout. :smile:
    I don`t think that you are a woolly-thinker either, Kinabula, but I must say that a left-winger claiming to possess a "cold clean streak of ruthless logic" stretches things far beyond breaking point.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    DavidL said:

    I respectfully disagree. What we know is that the son of a vice President of the US had been appointed to a very lucrative directorship of a Ukranian company that he was apparently completely unqualified for. So there was at least a prima facie case that Ukraine had bribed an important member of the previous administration to get US assistance. The current President wanted them to come clean on that before giving them more assistance. Of course he was far from disinterested in doing so but at the time Biden was not running for anything. The way he did it and his motives are both highly questionable but "high crimes and misdemeanors"? I think not.

    The "come clean" was to announce loudly and publicly that they were investigating Biden rather than the results of any such investigation. And he rather more than "wanted" them to do his bidding, he sought to coerce them into it using national resource as leverage. But these are points of detail. The fact is that we appear to hold a genuinely different view as to the seriousness of Trump's palpable corruption. I can only suggest the old "agree to disagree" shuffle.
  • kicorsekicorse Posts: 435
    Barnesian said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Apparently Layla Moran is to say the LDs failed to properly explain their Brexit policy at the GE, which seems very odd to me. Surely the positive thing about their policy is how easy it was to understand?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-51413562

    "It made us look arrogant, and it made us look stupid," she says. Quite.
    But I dont see how she thinks it would look less arrogant or stupid if it were 'properly explained'. Isnt that just saying it only looked stupid and arrogant because the public didnt understand? So she thinks the policy itself was just fine.

    I'll be in interested to hear how much more simply she thinks the policy could have been explained.
    It could have been explained thus:

    Our policy is a second referendum on Johnson's deal versus Remain. In the unlikely and magical event of an overall LibDem majority we would take that as clear evidence of a massive switch to Remain among voters and revoke without the delay and expense of a referendum.
    I heard more or less that explanation a few times during the campaign. I found it deeply unsatisfactory because a general election (in which a majority of seats is won without a majority of votes) should never override a referendum. Other people also found it unsatisfactory, probably for different reasons.

    But "we failed to explain X properly" usually means "I can't pretend that policy X wasn't a problem but nor can I say that it was wrong, because it was too popular within the party, so I will triangulate between the two". Normally that's understandable, but this was such an awful policy that people really should just bite the bullet and admit it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    Barnesian said:

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    I don't want to come over all 'survivalist' but I'm now looking into buying enough supplies (and I'm assuming no gas, electricity or water) for a 2-week isolation for my family.
    New cases are no longer growing exponentially. In fact the second derivative (i.e. the rate of growth of the rate of growth) has turned negative. It looks like the measures to control it are very effective.
    The problem with that is the credence that you have to give Chinese numbers. Even putting aside the cynicism we are dealing with a health system that is well beyond capacity. Unless that capacity increases there must be a limit as to how many people it can diagnose a day. We may be at that peak but it may not tell us much about the current rate of infection.

    What we are seeing in the ships (and now in the French gites) is that this virus is highly infectious. If it is right that symptoms for 80% are mild then are they even going to attempt to get treatment?

    The measures in China are draconian and they may be working but the data base is suspect.
  • "The way things are going, the fate of American democracy could soon be Bernie or bust. I envy those who find that exhilarating rather than terrifying."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/opinion/democratic-primary-2020-election.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    Well, I'll certainly be bust. And he'll lose badly.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg and Biden look the Democrats best bet to beat Trump then
    Biden is the best bet to beat Trump. Buttigieg is the worse bet.

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html
  • Alastair is wrong to castigate voters for preferring Boris to Corbyn. That is an entirely reasonable and honourable decision to make,. The unreasonable and dishonourable decision was the Conservative Party choosing Boris over Hunt or one of the other contenders.

    You're so far in denial you should be Egyptian.

    Johnson got what Hunts supporters claimed was impossible, a revised deal before Halloween. Hunt never would have. I didn't have a vote in the leadership election having torn up my membership when May became leader but if I had a vote it would have beenfor Johnson, who has succeeded where May failed and where Hunt would have failed.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    The virus is getting proper scary now. Five fall ill in France at ski resort.

    Stay away from areas where rich Chinese tourists go.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    HYUFD said:

    Not necessarily, Trump won Iowa by 9% in 2016 over Hillary, Trump could lose and still win Iowa
    Hah! Thanks for that @HYUFD - I missed the fact that the poll was Iowa state only and read it as a US poll. Since Trump's numbers have improved since the impeachment, I was was thinking the worst.

    On the impeachment: I don't see how the Dems could have avoided going through with it but it's not such a bad thing for them that the Reps have stopped it quickly...

    a) It will be largely forgotten by November.
    b) In the unlikely event that Trump was convicted, the Dems would be facing Mike Pence, who is if anything more dangerous than Trump.
    c) Maybe, just maybe, it would (as @rcs1000 has said) be better for a 2-term Trump to own the mess he is creating. In any event, creating a Trump impeachment martyrdom would not be in the best interests of progressive politics.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020

    Alastair is wrong to castigate voters for preferring Boris to Corbyn. That is an entirely reasonable and honourable decision to make,. The unreasonable and dishonourable decision was the Conservative Party choosing Boris over Hunt or one of the other contenders.

    You're so far in denial you should be Egyptian.

    Johnson got what Hunts supporters claimed was impossible, a revised deal before Halloween. Hunt never would have. I didn't have a vote in the leadership election having torn up my membership when May became leader but if I had a vote it would have beenfor Johnson, who has succeeded where May failed and where Hunt would have failed.
    Indeed, Hunt would have kept GB in a customs union as per May's Deal and failed to win back voters lost to the Brexit Party as Boris did.

    Farage would also have probably stood candidates in Tory seats if Hunt was Tory leader
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864

    Alastair is wrong to castigate voters for preferring Boris to Corbyn. That is an entirely reasonable and honourable decision to make,. The unreasonable and dishonourable decision was the Conservative Party choosing Boris over Hunt or one of the other contenders.

    You're so far in denial you should be Egyptian.

    Johnson got what Hunts supporters claimed was impossible, a revised deal before Halloween. Hunt never would have. I didn't have a vote in the leadership election having torn up my membership when May became leader but if I had a vote it would have beenfor Johnson, who has succeeded where May failed and where Hunt would have failed.
    Whilst I agree with this I do think that its unfortunate that Hunt's talents are not being used. Talent is not available in abundance. Hopefully he will be back in the reshuffle.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    As you suggest, enough of a tired electorate said 'sod it, just do it"

    This is the best nutshell of GE19 that I have seen. Dropping the "as you suggest" we get 11 words. It cannot IMO be done better than this in 11 words.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Sean_F said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    What evidence is that, other than that they agree with you?

    The TV vox pops of members of the public of the respective persuasions?

    The fact that most high achievers in most fields are Remainers?

    The fact that almost all known "deplorables" are supporters of Leave?
    It's rather a bold claim to equate high achievement with virtue. Certainly, most leading financiers are Remainers, but would you say they are virtuous?
    In my so far failed attempts to understand the EU enthusiast`s mind (I mean the emotionally-driven enthusiasts, not the pragmatic remainers like me) I`ve come to believe that there is more of a whiff of self-interest in their position.

    I agree that the hypothesis that remainers are, on average, brighter than leavers is likely to be true but wonder how many of the financiers, for example, have aligned (maybe unconciously) their EU enthusiasms to what is financial best for themselves. For example, I wonder how many have homes in EU countries and are worried about free movement ending?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited February 2020
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Buttigieg and Biden look the Democrats best bet to beat Trump then
    I think the Biden campaign will end after South Carolina.
    If he loses yes, if Biden wins South Carolina he will press on
    I think he will lose. Iowa was a disaster for him and NH doesn't look much better. Polling when he had a big name advantage is meaningless. His campaign is going nowhere.
    Not sure about that, Biden leads in the latest South Carolina polling

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225587560640061441?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1225856829881749504?s=20

    Plus after last night's debate cannot see Buttigieg winning many African American voters from Biden
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