Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you are betting on the Iowa caucuses be warned – Betfair co

135

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    Why would Boris do that? He has made a great start at breaking up the UK with his non-border border in the Irish Sea.
    Yep. Boris has opened up a route to a united Ireland.

    Not that it was of course anything that a British Prime Minister could agree to.
    Good. A United Ireland will save the Exchequer how many billions each year?
    It won't save anything as all the Protestant loyalists would come over to mainland GB and need public services if they do not declare UDI first that is
  • ydoethur said:

    My kids used to get very annoyed when my parents and myself started speaking Urdu in front of them.
    I'm very happy when my inlaws converse in Punjabi. It means that I can ignore them without appearing rude.
    Punjabi is one of my favourite languages.

    It is the second greatest language in the world to swear in, after French.
    You can get away with merde in French.
    Swearing in French is like wiping your arse with silk.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246
    edited February 2020

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    Will Sturgeon then fly to Brussels and demand to be annexed for the sake of "empathy"? Can none of these idiots see beyond the next two moves?
    She can demand what she wants but Boris has all the troops and most of the police and I doubt the EU will be prepared to invade Scotland in support of Sturgeon, even if the French aided James Stewart and Bonnie Prince Charlie in the 18th century
  • "Even some of Cummings’ closest allies have started to question his decisions, in the first sign of dissent among the Vote Leave faction of advisers."

  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    Mike

    Surely you should have said "if the other measures don’t have the loony 78 year old Socialist on top"?

    No point trying to influence the betting if you don't give it your all.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    Will Sturgeon then fly to Brussels and demand to be annexed for the sake of "empathy"? Can none of these idiots see beyond the next two moves?
    She can demand what she wants but Boris has all the troops and most of the police and I doubt the EU will be prepared to invade Scotland in support of Sturgeon, even if the French aided James Stewart and Bonnie Prince Charlie in the 18th century
    Haha all of the troops and most of the police. Who do you think you are?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Swearing in French is like wiping your arse with silk.

    Special offer at Waitrose atm on the deluxe double thickness quilted. It's worth it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon are here today gone tomorrow politicians, who cares what they said? But if the people of Scotland vote by a majority for parties committed to a second referendum it would be undemocratic to refuse it, however much I and others will campaign against such an outcome. Those who have been given a strong majority because of the lying toerags in the remainer Parliament should know that better than most.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    speedy2 said:

    Last published Iowa poll:
    https://www.focusonruralamerica.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/200130-Iowa-Voter-Results.pdf

    Buttigieg 19 +3
    Bernie 17 +3
    Biden 15 -9
    Warren 15 -3
    Klobuchar 11 nc

    The average movement continues to be against Biden.

    Remember when Biden was on 50%+ in the polls and was the surest thing in the whole world?
  • "Even some of Cummings’ closest allies have started to question his decisions, in the first sign of dissent among the Vote Leave faction of advisers."

    Revolutionaries are the first to be consumed by their revolutions..... :D
  • eadric said:

    My kids used to get very annoyed when my parents and myself started speaking Urdu in front of them.
    I'm very happy when my inlaws converse in Punjabi. It means that I can ignore them without appearing rude.
    Punjabi is one of my favourite languages.

    It is the second greatest language in the world to swear in, after French.
    Bollocks. And arse.

    In my many travels I’ve noticed that foreigners now swear in English. It’s quite something.

    I was in a slow elevator in Bangkok a couple of weeks ago with two young Italian men (stop sniggering). They were chattering away In Italian unaware of my nationality, and as they punched the buttons one said Ah fuck. And the other Fuck this. Then they went back To Italian

    I’ve heard multiple French people in France, talking to French people, say Fuck off and Fuck you. Etc. It’s partly because English swear words are simply better. More direct and forceful.

    “Oh my god” is now entirely universal. I’ve heard it spoken across the world by many nationalities.
    If only there was a way to monetise our IP in Anglo-Saxon swear words.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    So, is it too early for Iowa predictions?

    I am sticking with Buttigieg being surprise winner.

    Damn the polls and the torpedoes.

    That's the kind of excellent off the wall prediction that if it comes off makes you look a genius and so out there people will dismiss it as not serious if you miss.

    Bravo.

    I'm going for Warren in the top 3.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    And obviously then moving to to odds on favourite.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,573

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    Why would Boris do that? He has made a great start at breaking up the UK with his non-border border in the Irish Sea.
    Yep. Boris has opened up a route to a united Ireland.

    Not that it was of course anything that a British Prime Minister could agree to.
    Good. A United Ireland will save the Exchequer how many billions each year?
    It's around 0.54 gross brexits
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246
    edited February 2020
    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon are here today gone tomorrow politicians, who cares what they said? But if the people of Scotland vote by a majority for parties committed to a second referendum it would be undemocratic to refuse it, however much I and others will campaign against such an outcome. Those who have been given a strong majority because of the lying toerags in the remainer Parliament should know that better than most.
    2014 was a 'once in a generation' referendum and even most Scots do not believe an SNP Holyrood majority automatically requires indyref2

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
  • Alistair said:

    So, is it too early for Iowa predictions?

    I am sticking with Buttigieg being surprise winner.

    Damn the polls and the torpedoes.

    That's the kind of excellent off the wall prediction that if it comes off makes you look a genius and so out there people will dismiss it as not serious if you miss.

    Bravo.

    I'm going for Warren in the top 3.
    The more I see of the Dems the greater the urge to double up on Trump. Makes me feel dirty. Can they really not find a 50-something individual with congressional or gubernatorial experience and the ability to articulate, in words of one syllable, why Trump is a tramp?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon are here today gone tomorrow politicians, who cares what they said? But if the people of Scotland vote by a majority for parties committed to a second referendum it would be undemocratic to refuse it, however much I and others will campaign against such an outcome. Those who have been given a strong majority because of the lying toerags in the remainer Parliament should know that better than most.
    2014 was a 'once in a generation' referendum and even most Scots do not believe an SNP Holyrood majority automatically requires indyref2

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20
    But they do think it should be within 5 years.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,790
    edited February 2020

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    Why would Boris do that? He has made a great start at breaking up the UK with his non-border border in the Irish Sea.
    Yep. Boris has opened up a route to a united Ireland.

    Not that it was of course anything that a British Prime Minister could agree to.
    Good. A United Ireland will save the Exchequer how many billions each year?
    Perhaps you would feel happier if you dug a 100 mile diameter moat around your house? The country contains poor areas. That's no reason to amputate bits.
  • DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    Yes, but he delivers his "community". Absolutely vital these days.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    Will Sturgeon then fly to Brussels and demand to be annexed for the sake of "empathy"? Can none of these idiots see beyond the next two moves?
    She can demand what she wants but Boris has all the troops and most of the police and I doubt the EU will be prepared to invade Scotland in support of Sturgeon, even if the French aided James Stewart and Bonnie Prince Charlie in the 18th century
    Haha all of the troops and most of the police. Who do you think you are?
    Perhaps Boris will restore the last verse of the National Anthem

    'Lord grant that Marshal Wade
    May by thy mighty aid
    Victory bring.
    May he sedition hush,
    And like a torrent rush,
    Rebellious Scots to crush.
    God save the Queen!'
    https://www.classicfm.com/discover-music/british-national-anthem-lyrics/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon are here today gone tomorrow politicians, who cares what they said? But if the people of Scotland vote by a majority for parties committed to a second referendum it would be undemocratic to refuse it, however much I and others will campaign against such an outcome. Those who have been given a strong majority because of the lying toerags in the remainer Parliament should know that better than most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I reckon that if the Nats get a maj then Boris will think, fuck it, the union is in great danger anyway, it can’t get any worse if we just say No.

    What will Nicola do then? UDI? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
  • MSNBC presenter reckons Bernie vs Bloomberg for the Democratic nomination.
    http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/watch/chris-matthews-predicts-a-bernie-sanders-michael-bloomberg-match-up-78018629918
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    Will Sturgeon then fly to Brussels and demand to be annexed for the sake of "empathy"? Can none of these idiots see beyond the next two moves?
    She can demand what she wants but Boris has all the troops and most of the police and I doubt the EU will be prepared to invade Scotland in support of Sturgeon, even if the French aided James Stewart and Bonnie Prince Charlie in the 18th century
    But a year or so ago , you did raise the possibility of Sturgeon declaring UDI - an idea which I dismissed at the time as very unlikely on the basis that Sturgeon would have more sense than that. We now appear to hold fairly similar views on this.- the last thing we would wish to see is the development of a 1920s equivalent of Sinn Fein in Scotland with the serious risk of Scot killing Scot.
  • DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    I think his biggest problem is that he's just a bit boring.
  • speedy2 said:

    justin124 said:

    Next election will deffo be before September 2024.....

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51318730

    So we are probably talking about May/June 2024 - a mere four years and three months away!
    Since it has failed miserably why don't they just cancel Universal Credit and return to the previous system ?

    Surely cancelling it would save the jobs of the ministers.
    You must be mad or only have the most superficial understanding of just how awful the old system was.

    "my new euro6 diesel powered car seems underpowered and has poor performance. I would like to return my old Morris Marina, now that was a car"
  • Boris will be gone in a year when he betrays the Brixeteers
  • DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.


    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon are here today gone tomorrow politicians, who cares what they said? But if the people of Scotland vote by a majority for parties committed to a second referendum it would be undemocratic to refuse it, however much I and others will campaign against such an outcome. Those who have been given a strong majority because of the lying toerags in the remainer Parliament should know that better than most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I reckon that if the Nats get a maj then Boris will think, fuck it, the union is in great danger anyway, it can’t get any worse if we just say No.

    What will Nicola do then? UDI? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    We're in danger of walking over the abyss here.

    I'm not sure how confident I am Boris will fight tooth and nail for the Union.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246
    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majorito it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    Will Sturgeon then fly to Brussels and demand to be annexed for the sake of "empathy"? Can none of these idiots see beyond the next two moves?
    She can demand what she wants but Boris has all the troops and most of the police and I doubt the EU will be prepared to invade Scotland in support of Sturgeon, even if the French aided James Stewart and Bonnie Prince Charlie in the 18th century
    But a year or so ago , you did raise the possibility of Sturgeon declaring UDI - an idea which I dismissed at the time as very unlikely on the basis that Sturgeon would have more sense than that. We now appear to hold fairly similar views on this.- the last thing we would wish to see is the development of a 1920s equivalent of Sinn Fein in Scotland with the serious risk of Scot killing Scot.
    Yes, Sturgeon must be told No means No, at least until another generation since 2014 has passed as Salmond promised
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon are here today gone tomorrow politicians, who cares what they said? But if the people of Scotland vote by a majority for parties committed to a second referendum it would be undemocratic to refuse it, however much I and others will campaign against such an outcome. Those who have been given a strong majority because of the lying toerags in the remainer Parliament should know that better than most.
    2014 was a 'once in a generation' referendum and even most Scots do not believe an SNP Holyrood majority automatically requires indyref2

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20
    I genuinely think that most people in Scotland are sick to death of politicians wittering on about constitutional matters instead of focusing on the day job but that is very different from the democratic wishes of the nation being blatantly defied. That would be a game changer.
  • HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    A Dutch train station declares war on the UK!
  • Alistair said:

    So, is it too early for Iowa predictions?

    I am sticking with Buttigieg being surprise winner.

    Damn the polls and the torpedoes.

    That's the kind of excellent off the wall prediction that if it comes off makes you look a genius and so out there people will dismiss it as not serious if you miss.

    Bravo.

    I'm going for Warren in the top 3.
    The more I see of the Dems the greater the urge to double up on Trump. Makes me feel dirty. Can they really not find a 50-something individual with congressional or gubernatorial experience and the ability to articulate, in words of one syllable, why Trump is a tramp?

    You may have to wait for The Grim Reaper to do the dirty work and dispatch the oldsters to their reward in the next life...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Stuer than most.
    2014 was a 'once in a generation' referendum and even most Scots do not believe an SNP Holyrood majority automatically requires indyref2

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20
    I genuinely think that most people in Scotland are sick to death of politicians wittering on about constitutional matters instead of focusing on the day job but that is very different from the democratic wishes of the nation being blatantly defied. That would be a game changer.
    Ignoring the 41% for indyref2 if the SNP get a majority next year is by no means defying the democratic wishes of the nation when 55% of Scots voted No to independence in 2014 in a 'once in a generation' vote
  • HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    A Dutch train station declares war on the UK!
    Is this not just another SNP funded stunt like the lighting up the european parliament ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    I think his biggest problem is that he's just a bit boring.
    I agree. Not Philip Hammond boring but close. We need some imagination and vision in the Treasury. I am not sure he’s it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246
    edited February 2020
    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon n most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I I? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)
  • HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majorito it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    Will Sturgeon then fly to Brussels and demand to be annexed for the sake of "empathy"? Can none of these idiots see beyond the next two moves?
    She can demand what she wants but Boris has all the troops and most of the police and I doubt the EU will be prepared to invade Scotland in support of Sturgeon, even if the French aided James Stewart and Bonnie Prince Charlie in the 18th century
    But a year or so ago , you did raise the possibility of Sturgeon declaring UDI - an idea which I dismissed at the time as very unlikely on the basis that Sturgeon would have more sense than that. We now appear to hold fairly similar views on this.- the last thing we would wish to see is the development of a 1920s equivalent of Sinn Fein in Scotland with the serious risk of Scot killing Scot.
    Yes, Sturgeon must be told No means No, at least until another generation since 2014 has passed as Salmond promised
    Well, a generation in Glasgow is a shorter length of time than most places.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Alistair said:

    So, is it too early for Iowa predictions?

    I am sticking with Buttigieg being surprise winner.

    Damn the polls and the torpedoes.

    That's the kind of excellent off the wall prediction that if it comes off makes you look a genius and so out there people will dismiss it as not serious if you miss.

    Bravo.

    I'm going for Warren in the top 3.
    The more I see of the Dems the greater the urge to double up on Trump. Makes me feel dirty. Can they really not find a 50-something individual with congressional or gubernatorial experience and the ability to articulate, in words of one syllable, why Trump is a tramp?

    Sherrod Brown was the no brainer choice but Biden sucked up all the generic white male Dem candidate space.
  • The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
  • 33 pages is very short. Although at least this time there are a reasonable number of words on each page.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Endillion said:

    Alistair said:



    In an alternative universe, Hillary wasn't so stupid and we didn't get Trump and Margaret Beckett didn't vote for Corbyn to go on the ballot, so the alternative Labour leader properly backed staying in the EU and we didn't Brexit.
    Political chaos theory in practise.

    In the alternate universe where Clinton becomes president the 2018 mid terms would have been a massacre for the Dems. You'd have been looking at a Republican senate in super majority territory, Nevada, Montana, ARizona would ahve been near guaranteed Republican pickups in the Senate. The wave of Dem pickups in California would not have happened.

    You could have been looking at Clinton impeached and removed by now. What for? Whatever the hell the Republicans wanted.
    I wonder if the endeavour to impeach Bill Clinton has opened a Pandoras box in American politics, in that it's now a recognised tactic by the opposition.
    I agree. I think it might need an amendment to the constitution, it really is that serious. On the other hand perhaps those who are not completely brain dead will eventually wake up to the fact that neutral members of society are appalled by the use of judicial process for political ends. There is a lesson for the UK Supreme Court hidden in there somewhere as well.

    Trump will really have to fuck up now not to be re-elected.
    The UK Supreme Court did nothing of the sort. It was clearly a breach of the law, so much so that it was a bloody unanimous decision. Get a grip.
    Well, the Supreme Court had to overturn the original decision, so it can't have been that clear.
    The UK Supreme Court was asked a question that had a highly political context. It had to give an answer that would upset one side. You’ve not actually given a reason why your side should have succeeded, you’re just being mindlessly partisan.

    The decision can be summed up in four words: don’t take the piss. Judging by today’s developments, the government appears not to have absorbed this simple concept.
    Well, I agree with that, more or less (except for the last bit, where I'm not sure which developments you're referring to). All I said was that it wasn't a clear cut decision, on the basis that the High Court ruled one way and the Supreme Court overturned them.

    I might go as far as to say that the apparent difficulty in the decision is somewhat at odds with the unanimity concluded by the Court, but obviously that doesn't in and of itself prove that the decision was overtly political.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20
    You do realise the tweet says within the next 5 years, not after 5 years
    There is no majority, only a plurality, for holding a 2nd Ref ever on these figures. As the polling is at best about 50/50 it makes sense for the Scots not to repeat the outcome in the EU Ref with a
    close result. Though it would be enjoyable and very funny listening to Nicola explaining that, in this case, 50% plus one constituted a clear and binding mandate.

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Another day, another exhibit for our regular poster who believes London is outperforming every other part of the UK.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/feb/03/danish-police-seize-hyde-park-mansion-from-sanjay-shah

    London ... where the oligarchs, the kleptocrats, the former despots and the mass murderers live, ... or just buy the big houses as investments.

    London is a ship crewed by dirty knaves -- the lawyers, the accountants, the tax consultants, "the over-performers" -- floating on a sea of filthy money.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon n most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I I? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)
    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    Why would Boris do that? He has made a great start at breaking up the UK with his non-border border in the Irish Sea.
    Yep. Boris has opened up a route to a united Ireland.

    Not that it was of course anything that a British Prime Minister could agree to.
    Excellent if he has opened up the route. A small victory for geography.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    edited February 2020
    HYUFD said:

    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    We’ve been through this. Boris cannot suspend Holyrood without primary legislation so good luck with that. I doubt the Lords would be cooperative. You’d have to wait at least a year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon n most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I I? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    In which case the big Tory majoritdyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)
    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
    By definition it does not if it happens after Sturgeon has declared UDI, it would be respecting the wishes of the majority of Scots who oppose indyref2 for 5 years
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246

    HYUFD said:

    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    We’ve been through this. Boris cannot suspend Holyrood without primary legislation so good luck with that. I doubt the Lords would be cooperative. You’d have to wait at least a year.
    Boris is already starting to pack the Lords with more sympathetic supporters and the Lords can only delay legislation not block it, so Westminster would still legislate over Scotland before imposing full direct rule once the Parliament Act kicked in
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    justin124 said:

    HYUFD said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majorito it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    Will Sturgeon then fly to Brussels and demand to be annexed for the sake of "empathy"? Can none of these idiots see beyond the next two moves?
    She can demand what she wants but Boris has all the troops and most of the police and I doubt the EU will be prepared to invade Scotland in support of Sturgeon, even if the French aided James Stewart and Bonnie Prince Charlie in the 18th century
    But a year or so ago , you did raise the possibility of Sturgeon declaring UDI - an idea which I dismissed at the time as very unlikely on the basis that Sturgeon would have more sense than that. We now appear to hold fairly similar views on this.- the last thing we would wish to see is the development of a 1920s equivalent of Sinn Fein in Scotland with the serious risk of Scot killing Scot.
    Yes, Sturgeon must be told No means No, at least until another generation since 2014 has passed as Salmond promised
    We don't, in a democracy, accept as binding the off the cuff, politically motivated personal utterances of a Big Man. You are confusing us with Zimbabwe. You sound like the yebbut dimmocracee Leaver dweebs relying on Cameron's equally anti democratic assurances to promote an advisory referendum into a binding one. The law is what it is, not what Mr Salmond said.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    We’ve been through this. Boris cannot suspend Holyrood without primary legislation so good luck with that. I doubt the Lords would be cooperative. You’d have to wait at least a year.
    Boris is already starting to pack the Lords with more sympathetic supporters and the Lords can only delay legislation not block it, so Westminster would still legislate over Scotland before imposing full direct rule once the Parliament Act kicked in
    You’re a funny guy.
  • HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon n most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I I? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)
    HYUFD.

    You talk so much nonsense about the Scots and indyref2 and actively incite anger against so many reasonable Scots and supporters of the union like myself. We are ashamed of your exteme claptrap but are confident more wise voices will realise that the way to save the union is to grant the referendum in the autumn of 2021, if the SNP win on the manifesto of holding a referendum

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    Can’t wait for all this Tory hubris to meet reality. It is going to be a sight to behold.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    HYUFD said:

    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    We’ve been through this. Boris cannot suspend Holyrood without primary legislation so good luck with that. I doubt the Lords would be cooperative. You’d have to wait at least a year.
    The biggest problem for the SNP internationally is Spain.

    Spain will never support or recognise secessionists due to their own secessionists.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,906
    edited February 2020
    Pulpstar said:
    "Just over two dozen" people came together for the caucus. 14 of the 25/26/27? went for Sanders. One went for Warren.

    Who did the other 10 to 12 vote for?

    Edit to add: as an aside, this suggests that the Sanders campaign is EXTREMELY well organised.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    edited February 2020
    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    We’ve been through this. Boris cannot suspend Holyrood without primary legislation so good luck with that. I doubt the Lords would be cooperative. You’d have to wait at least a year.
    The biggest problem for the SNP internationally is Spain.

    Spain will never support or recognise secessionists due to their own secessionists.
    I think they could. We’ve heard all this guff before, like when Macron was going to veto everything.

    Spain can simply talk about how their constitution is different to the UK.


  • We're in danger of walking over the abyss here.

    I'm not sure how confident I am Boris will fight tooth and nail for the Union.

    Already walked over that abyss in 2016 and the cherry on the parfait, 63% of Tory members would be prepared to see Scotland leave the EU to ensure Brexit.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye
  • DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:


    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
    :D:D

    Sorry - did you think they care down in England? The only need Scotland for the Naval bases, otherwise you would be gone.

    Look at the cheerleaders on this thread happy to sell N Ireland down the river. Be grateful for Trident otherwise you would get the same treatment.
  • The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    May wasn't prepared to walk away nor would Parliament let Johnson do so. If it comes to it then whoever is prepared to walk away is in the stronger position. This time Parliament will be on the UK's side.

    I don't think Ireland will want the talks to collapse.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246



    We're in danger of walking over the abyss here.

    I'm not sure how confident I am Boris will fight tooth and nail for the Union.

    Already walked over that abyss in 2016 and the cherry on the parfait, 63% of Tory members would be prepared to see Scotland leave the EU to ensure Brexit.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye
    Irrelevant as there would be no forced choice, the Tories won on a manifesto to deliver Brexit, done and to ban indyref2 for their full term if they won a majority, also done
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    A Dutch train station declares war on the UK!
    Let Leavers rail against them.
  • DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris has made clear he will block indyref2 for his full 5 year term as per the Tory manifesto and most Scots oppose indyref2 for 5 years anyway
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.


    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun (and both already backed the s30 request), then there will have to be one, because that will be that "the majority of people in Scotland" want. I am sure Boris is well aware of that and he has not ruled it out. It wouldn't surprise me if Dom is even looking forward to indyref2.

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon n most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I I? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)
    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
    It certainly is.

    We are not that sort of country, thank goodness.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    May wasn't prepared to walk away nor would Parliament let Johnson do so. If it comes to it then whoever is prepared to walk away is in the stronger position. This time Parliament will be on the UK's side.

    I don't think Ireland will want the talks to collapse.
    I agree totally - look at the map.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:


    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
    :D:D

    Sorry - did you think they care down in England? The only need Scotland for the Naval bases, otherwise you would be gone.

    Look at the cheerleaders on this thread happy to sell N Ireland down the river. Be grateful for Trident otherwise you would get the same treatment.
    I would not sell NI down the river and would impose direct rule there if necessary too (though the WA protects the GFA so that should not be required)
  • The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
  • DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:


    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
    :D:D

    Sorry - did you think they care down in England? The only need Scotland for the Naval bases, otherwise you would be gone.

    Look at the cheerleaders on this thread happy to sell N Ireland down the river. Be grateful for Trident otherwise you would get the same treatment.
    Yes, I care. I care emotionally, culturally and socially. I care deeply about Scotland and the Scottish people, who I think can be proudly Scottish and British at the same time.

    We would all be greatly impoverished by their departure and I would be upset.

    We're not all as childish as you.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,246

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.

    What it says is "We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon n most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I I? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    In which case the big Tory majorf (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)
    HYUFD.

    You talk so much nonsense about the Scots and indyref2 and actively incite anger against so many reasonable Scots and supporters of the union like myself. We are ashamed of your exteme claptrap but are confident more wise voices will realise that the way to save the union is to grant the referendum in the autumn of 2021, if the SNP win on the manifesto of holding a referendum

    Nope, most Scots do not want indyref2 even if the SNP win a majority next year, sorry BigG but time to get tough with the Nats and tell them a firm 'No means No'.

    Indyref2 will have to wait for a full generation after 2014 as Salmond promised
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426

    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:


    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
    :D:D

    Sorry - did you think they care down in England? The only need Scotland for the Naval bases, otherwise you would be gone.

    Look at the cheerleaders on this thread happy to sell N Ireland down the river. Be grateful for Trident otherwise you would get the same treatment.
    Yes, I care. I care emotionally, culturally and socially. I care deeply about Scotland and the Scottish people, who I think can be proudly Scottish and British at the same time.

    We would all be greatly impoverished by their departure and I would be upset.

    We're not all as childish as you.
    I think you are. You get upset by emojis. 🇪🇺
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100



    We're in danger of walking over the abyss here.

    I'm not sure how confident I am Boris will fight tooth and nail for the Union.

    Already walked over that abyss in 2016 and the cherry on the parfait, 63% of Tory members would be prepared to see Scotland leave the EU to ensure Brexit.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye
    If the SNP really want independence they should be seeking an English referendum on it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    "Just over two dozen" people came together for the caucus. 14 of the 25/26/27? went for Sanders. One went for Warren.

    Who did the other 10 to 12 vote for?

    Edit to add: as an aside, this suggests that the Sanders campaign is EXTREMELY well organised.
    He's got pork barrel politics sorted?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    We’ve been through this. Boris cannot suspend Holyrood without primary legislation so good luck with that. I doubt the Lords would be cooperative. You’d have to wait at least a year.
    The biggest problem for the SNP internationally is Spain.

    Spain will never support or recognise secessionists due to their own secessionists.
    I think they could. We’ve heard all this guff before, like when Macron was going to veto everything.

    Spain can simply talk about how their constitution is different to the UK.
    Wishcasting.

    The Catalan situation makes international recognition of an independent Scotland without the consent of the UK impossible. Only Russia will probably recognise it.


  • We're in danger of walking over the abyss here.

    I'm not sure how confident I am Boris will fight tooth and nail for the Union.

    Already walked over that abyss in 2016 and the cherry on the parfait, 63% of Tory members would be prepared to see Scotland leave the EU to ensure Brexit.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye
    Sorry. Too boring.

    If you're going to troll try and be original.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    Sajid is the most uncharismatic, untelegenic politician ever. He makes Teresa May look like a young, more compelling Marlon Brando.

    It’s a shame cause I think he’s smart and he has a great and inspiring backstory. He’s an impressive dude CV-wise. But he’s so wooden he may get the chop, daboomtish

    The Tories need more persuasive voices, and he doesn’t cut it.
    Since becoming Chancellor , he has come across as surprisingly dim - Javid does not look the part at all and has little natural authority.With hindsight, I am finding it difficult to understand why Stephen Crabbe supported him for the leadership.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    speedy2 said:

    speedy2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    We’ve been through this. Boris cannot suspend Holyrood without primary legislation so good luck with that. I doubt the Lords would be cooperative. You’d have to wait at least a year.
    The biggest problem for the SNP internationally is Spain.

    Spain will never support or recognise secessionists due to their own secessionists.
    I think they could. We’ve heard all this guff before, like when Macron was going to veto everything.

    Spain can simply talk about how their constitution is different to the UK.
    Wishcasting.

    The Catalan situation makes international recognition of an independent Scotland without the consent of the UK impossible. Only Russia will probably recognise it.
    I’m not wishing anything. I’m merely suggesting that a “definite no” is not a foregone conclusion.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.


  • We're in danger of walking over the abyss here.

    I'm not sure how confident I am Boris will fight tooth and nail for the Union.

    Already walked over that abyss in 2016 and the cherry on the parfait, 63% of Tory members would be prepared to see Scotland leave the EU to ensure Brexit.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye
    Sorry. Too boring.

    If you're going to troll try and be original.
    I'm not trolling.

    There's clear evidence that the Conservative and Unionist Party has ceased to be Unionist.

    Whilst I thought Brexit might increase the chances of Scotland seceding I did not expect the Tory party to help the process.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited February 2020
    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:
    "Just over two dozen" people came together for the caucus. 14 of the 25/26/27? went for Sanders. One went for Warren.

    Who did the other 10 to 12 vote for?

    Edit to add: as an aside, this suggests that the Sanders campaign is EXTREMELY well organised.
    Well the official result so far is Sanders 18, Buttigieg 2 ,Klobuchar 2, Warren 2 votes.

    It's probably 0.0001% in.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    alterego said:

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.
    Tell that to the EU who are far better negotiators than the idiots on ‘our’ side.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    I think that I spent more time and effort campaigning for the Union in 2014 than anyone else on this site I am aware of. Certain things are indisputable:
    (1) the decision as to whether or not to be an independent country is a decision for the Scots alone, even although it affects others.
    (2) it is because we are fortunate enough to live in a country that recognises that that the majority of us wanted to remain in this great country. Spain is a good example of the alternative and it is not attractive.
    (3) the logic of (1) is that it is the Scottish people who decide when we have another referendum, if we do, not the SNP and not Nicola Sturgeon.
    (4) if Scots vote by a majority for parties committed to holding that referendum within the next term of the Scottish Parliament that is their democratic choice.
    (5) an attempt by non Scots to defy that choice will destroy the unionist cause in Scotland. The union would be doomed.

    It really is as simple and stark as that.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    eadric said:

    HYUFD said:

    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:
    So 51% Yes 49% No at weekend and now 50%/50% , easy to see why Boris is running scared. Once they start campaigning that will be 60% - 40% for certain.
    Except Boris
    That's not what the Tory manifesto says.
    ."

    If the SNP + Greens win a majority of seats and voteshare in next May's Holyrood election with a promise of an indyref rerun

    (OK OK, I know a majority in Britain as a whole last month voted for not leaving the EU without another Brexit referendum, but there's PR at Holyrood and also independence is a Yes/No issue so it's different.)

    There almost certainly will be one, so we will probably get one.
    I’m with HYUFD. The Tories will deny a vote even if the Nats get a maj in Holyrood. They will dare Sturgeon to legally overreach, like the catalunyans.

    High stakes.
    That would be unwise. Salmond and Sturgeon n most.
    I’m not saying it’s a good call - or a bad one. I’m just reading the runes as I see them. I I? Fatal mistake if she does.
    She would probably go for a referendum without Westminster consent. She would probably win it. We would be in a terrible mess.
    In which case the big Tory majorf (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)
    HYUFD.

    You talk so much nonsense about the Scots and indyref2 and actively incite anger against so many reasonable Scots and supporters of the union like myself. We are ashamed of your exteme claptrap but are confident more wise voices will realise that the way to save the union is to grant the referendum in the autumn of 2021, if the SNP win on the manifesto of holding a referendum

    Nope, most Scots do not want indyref2 even if the SNP win a majority next year, sorry BigG but time to get tough with the Nats and tell them a firm 'No means No'.

    Indyref2 will have to wait for a full generation after 2014 as Salmond promised
    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1222871398516916224?s=20
    The time is to get tough with you and your provocation of the Scots

    You are making a fool of yourself in front of all the Scots and Union supporting posters and showing a side of you that is frankly ugly
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    I think his biggest problem is that he's just a bit boring.
    I agree. Not Philip Hammond boring but close. We need some imagination and vision in the Treasury. I am not sure he’s it.
    I think that might be John McDonnell trying to attract your attention...

    Meanwhile, I see that HY has been smoking the strong stuff again this evening.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:
    The EU’s next move is to entice Scotland.

    This is a hostile act and all part of their move to punish the UK for leaving, and encourage others not to do the same.

    They will wrap it up in language around defending the interests of member states only, and being neutral on potential new accession member states.

    Boris should say he’ll immediately guillotine all talks if they encourage - tacitly or otherwise - dismemberment of the UK.
    Why would Boris do that? He has made a great start at breaking up the UK with his non-border border in the Irish Sea.
    Yep. Boris has opened up a route to a united Ireland.

    Not that it was of course anything that a British Prime Minister could agree to.
    No he has not at all, he has just ensured a hard border with the Republic of Ireland is avoided to protect the GFA, which would have increased support for a United Ireland in Northern Ireland far more than the current situation
    Not even wrong.
  • DavidL said:

    I think that I spent more time and effort campaigning for the Union in 2014 than anyone else on this site I am aware of. Certain things are indisputable:
    (1) the decision as to whether or not to be an independent country is a decision for the Scots alone, even although it affects others.
    (2) it is because we are fortunate enough to live in a country that recognises that that the majority of us wanted to remain in this great country. Spain is a good example of the alternative and it is not attractive.
    (3) the logic of (1) is that it is the Scottish people who decide when we have another referendum, if we do, not the SNP and not Nicola Sturgeon.
    (4) if Scots vote by a majority for parties committed to holding that referendum within the next term of the Scottish Parliament that is their democratic choice.
    (5) an attempt by non Scots to defy that choice will destroy the unionist cause in Scotland. The union would be doomed.

    It really is as simple and stark as that.

    What do you think the Unionists will do if the SNP decide to hold an unlawful* referendum?

    Boycott it or fight tooth and nail?

    *For the purposes of this discussion, unlawful means a referendum without a Section 30 order.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100

    alterego said:

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.
    Tell that to the EU who are far better negotiators than the idiots on ‘our’ side.
    Different team, different majority - you should have noticed. Can you please enlighten me on the detail the EU offering.
  • The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Yes.

    And I do not expect you to see any merit in anything Boris says or does as you want us to fail in some weird way that would see you right and we would then rejoin

    It is not going to happen
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    I think that I spent more time and effort campaigning for the Union in 2014 than anyone else on this site I am aware of. Certain things are indisputable:
    (1) the decision as to whether or not to be an independent country is a decision for the Scots alone, even although it affects others.
    (2) it is because we are fortunate enough to live in a country that recognises that that the majority of us wanted to remain in this great country. Spain is a good example of the alternative and it is not attractive.
    (3) the logic of (1) is that it is the Scottish people who decide when we have another referendum, if we do, not the SNP and not Nicola Sturgeon.
    (4) if Scots vote by a majority for parties committed to holding that referendum within the next term of the Scottish Parliament that is their democratic choice.
    (5) an attempt by non Scots to defy that choice will destroy the unionist cause in Scotland. The union would be doomed.

    It really is as simple and stark as that.

    What do you think the Unionists will do if the SNP decide to hold an unlawful* referendum?

    Boycott it or fight tooth and nail?

    *For the purposes of this discussion, unlawful means a referendum without a Section 30 order.
    I think that they will split both ways giving leave the majority.
  • justin124 said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    Sajid is the most uncharismatic, untelegenic politician ever. He makes Teresa May look like a young, more compelling Marlon Brando.

    It’s a shame cause I think he’s smart and he has a great and inspiring backstory. He’s an impressive dude CV-wise. But he’s so wooden he may get the chop, daboomtish

    The Tories need more persuasive voices, and he doesn’t cut it.
    Since becoming Chancellor , he has come across as surprisingly dim - Javid does not look the part at all and has little natural authority.With hindsight, I am finding it difficult to understand why Stephen Crabbe supported him for the leadership.
    Compared with labour leadership and deputy leadership candidates he looks a fine statesman
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    alterego said:

    alterego said:

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.
    Tell that to the EU who are far better negotiators than the idiots on ‘our’ side.
    Different team, different majority - you should have noticed. Can you please enlighten me on the detail the EU offering.
    Do you mean apart from all their public presentations on their negotiating objectives and the 33 page document released today?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1224331507000627201?s=21

    You do realise we have less than 11 months to go?
  • alterego said:

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.
    Tell that to the EU who are far better negotiators than the idiots on ‘our’ side.
    Predictable comment but you may be in for a very big surprise
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I think that I spent more time and effort campaigning for the Union in 2014 than anyone else on this site I am aware of. Certain things are indisputable:
    (1) the decision as to whether or not to be an independent country is a decision for the Scots alone, even although it affects others.
    (2) it is because we are fortunate enough to live in a country that recognises that that the majority of us wanted to remain in this great country. Spain is a good example of the alternative and it is not attractive.
    (3) the logic of (1) is that it is the Scottish people who decide when we have another referendum, if we do, not the SNP and not Nicola Sturgeon.
    (4) if Scots vote by a majority for parties committed to holding that referendum within the next term of the Scottish Parliament that is their democratic choice.
    (5) an attempt by non Scots to defy that choice will destroy the unionist cause in Scotland. The union would be doomed.

    It really is as simple and stark as that.

    What do you think the Unionists will do if the SNP decide to hold an unlawful* referendum?

    Boycott it or fight tooth and nail?

    *For the purposes of this discussion, unlawful means a referendum without a Section 30 order.
    I think that they will split both ways giving leave the majority.
    Thanks.

    I did read somewhere last year (cannot find the link now) that logistically it is nigh on impossible for the SNP to hold a unlawful referendum because they don't control every council in Scotland so cannot compel them to conduct the referendum which means large swathes of Scots will not be able to take part in it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426
    SKS 2-1 up against RLB tonight so far.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    I think his biggest problem is that he's just a bit boring.
    I agree. Not Philip Hammond boring but close. We need some imagination and vision in the Treasury. I am not sure he’s it.
    I think that might be John McDonnell trying to attract your attention...

    Meanwhile, I see that HY has been smoking the strong stuff again this evening.
    He said 'imagination and vision' not 'prejudice and fantasies.'
  • DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:


    In which case the big Tory majority in the Commons would ensure Boris imposed direct rule on Scotland and suspended Holyrood, Sturgeon should then count herself lucky she would not be arrested for sedition as Catalan nationalists in the Catalan government were by the conservative PP Spanish government when they declared UDI and held an illegal indyref (the Spanish also imposing direct rule on Catalonia)

    This is madness and threatens the unionist majority like nothing else.
    :D:D

    Sorry - did you think they care down in England? The only need Scotland for the Naval bases, otherwise you would be gone.

    Look at the cheerleaders on this thread happy to sell N Ireland down the river. Be grateful for Trident otherwise you would get the same treatment.
    Yes, I care. I care emotionally, culturally and socially. I care deeply about Scotland and the Scottish people, who I think can be proudly Scottish and British at the same time.

    We would all be greatly impoverished by their departure and I would be upset.

    We're not all as childish as you.
    And we are not all as pompous as you.

    I should point, since you seem to have missed it, that I am not advocating tossing Scotland or N Ireland under the bus. I am pointing out that others on here are almost gleeful about it.

    Take your ire to them...

    Oh! I almost forgot your smiley :D:D;):open_mouth:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    I think his biggest problem is that he's just a bit boring.
    I agree. Not Philip Hammond boring but close. We need some imagination and vision in the Treasury. I am not sure he’s it.
    I think that might be John McDonnell trying to attract your attention...

    Meanwhile, I see that HY has been smoking the strong stuff again this evening.
    Not much risk of McDonnell getting my attention Sandy but that doesn’t mean that we can’t pinch some of his ideas.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,426

    alterego said:

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.
    Tell that to the EU who are far better negotiators than the idiots on ‘our’ side.
    Predictable comment but you may be in for a very big surprise
    I also may not be.
    At least I’m looking at the evidence. You’re just going on blind hope and ‘optimism’.
  • alterego said:

    alterego said:

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.
    Tell that to the EU who are far better negotiators than the idiots on ‘our’ side.
    Different team, different majority - you should have noticed. Can you please enlighten me on the detail the EU offering.
    Do you mean apart from all their public presentations on their negotiating objectives and the 33 page document released today?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1224331507000627201?s=21

    You do realise we have less than 11 months to go?
    Actually, I'd be broadly be happy with that EU proposed deal provided the governance arrangements were fair and subject to the negotiated detail.

    It's big, it's broad, it's ambitious, it's practical and it's comprehensive and it'd allow us a good economic and political relationship outside the EU.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    justin124 said:

    eadric said:

    DavidL said:

    The Saj has seriously underperformed to date. Being so precipitate on HS2 was unwise unless he had cover from No 10. His Autumn statement was just embarrassing. A lot depends on his budget. He really has to seize the moment and epitomise the Boris revolution.
    Sajid is the most uncharismatic, untelegenic politician ever. He makes Teresa May look like a young, more compelling Marlon Brando.

    It’s a shame cause I think he’s smart and he has a great and inspiring backstory. He’s an impressive dude CV-wise. But he’s so wooden he may get the chop, daboomtish

    The Tories need more persuasive voices, and he doesn’t cut it.
    Since becoming Chancellor , he has come across as surprisingly dim - Javid does not look the part at all and has little natural authority.With hindsight, I am finding it difficult to understand why Stephen Crabbe supported him for the leadership.
    Compared with labour leadership and deputy leadership candidates he looks a fine statesman
    I strongly disagree - Starmer has far more gravitas - and even beats him in terms of charisma.
  • alteregoalterego Posts: 1,100
    edited February 2020

    alterego said:

    alterego said:

    The EU has the stronger position so they win.

    Remember Mrs May's Lancaster House speech or any of Boris Johnson's speeches on Brexit, their rhetoric met reality.
    I am not at all sure the EU will win this.

    Boris seems set on taking them on and in his speech today he made an excellent case on how the UK standards are higher, that France and Germany have broken state aid rules on dozens of occasions, and we lead on environment issues

    Reading the threads since friday the same stale arguments drift backward and forward between both sides unfortunately still entrenched, but things are very different now and Boris has an 80 seat majority to call the EU's bluff

    One thing is certain it is going to be a fascinating year
    Are you actually praising the vacuous speech Boris gave today?
    Now is the time for detail not bravado.
    Up front is absolutely not the time for detail in any negotiation. Detail comes last.
    Tell that to the EU who are far better negotiators than the idiots on ‘our’ side.
    Different team, different majority - you should have noticed. Can you please enlighten me on the detail the EU offering.
    Do you mean apart from all their public presentations on their negotiating objectives and the 33 page document released today?

    https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1224331507000627201?s=21

    You do realise we have less than 11 months to go?
    Since when are guidelines details? They're chat. Details come out of negotiations. Even red lines are negotiable until both sides determine that they're not. If anything the presentation of "guidelines" is weak.
This discussion has been closed.