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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The SNP’s Brexit conundrum
Drink, says the Porter in the ‘Scottish Play’, is an equivocator with lechery: “it provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance…. it sets him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him, and disheartens him”. So it may prove with Brexit and Scottish Independence.
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But slightly surprised that an admirer of Samuel Pepys should use the phrase 'slam dunk'.
The real significance is the divergence of political opinion in Scotland from England, of which Brexit is just one of many obvious issues. If Scots are going to be ignored then they will want and have their Independence, and I don't blame them at all. The divergence between rUK and Scottish opinion is now too much to be possible in one country for long.
Sense breaking out on the Left?
https://shop.conservatives.com/collections/got-brexit-done/products/got-brexit-done-tea-towel
https://twitter.com/mikeysmith/status/1222609173797646337?s=21
I hope those losing their jobs can feed the family on sovereignty!
https://twitter.com/CLPNominations/status/1222651374804049921
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-usa-huawei/huawei-denies-german-report-it-colluded-with-chinese-intelligence-idUKKBN1ZS194
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Sophisticated hackers infiltrated U.N. networks in Geneva and Vienna last year in an apparent espionage operation that top officials at the world body kept largely quiet. The hackers’ identity and the extent of the data they obtained are not known.
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/leaked-report-shows-united-nations-suffered-hack/
Goodbye Len and Karie, thanks for everything, its been a blast...
The argument that all those votes indeed constitute a political generation is one that can well be made.
* 3 GEs, 2 Holyrood, Brexit referendum
** If we're being strict on the rules of the game, 4 of these were UK wide but, never mind, politicians are uncommonly fond of saying that, by the rules of hockey a Mo Salah goal should have been disallowed, or similar, so let's set the argument in that spirit.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/us/politics/bloomberg-trump-health-care.html?emc=rss&partner=rss&smid=tw-nytpolitics&smtyp=cur
So many benefits...
https://twitter.com/TomBlenkinsop/status/1222649815189815303
"Of course, just because the operators might be allowed to reintroduce roaming charges, it does not necessarily mean that they would do so."
BBC
Perhaps I need more rest.
Night all.
But I should just not travel. Got it.
https://twitter.com/PerthshireMags/status/1222650973186940928?s=20
I still think some of the public are unaware that FOM ending isn’t just for EU nationals coming to the UK. Some are going to be in for a big shock when they realize that .
Brits are now second class citizens on their own continent with less rights than 27 other European countries . That wonderful freedom to just live, work or retire to 27 other countries will now involve a host of bureaucracy and hurdles to overcome with no guarantee of success . But of course Leavers will just peddle the “ people moved to other European countries before the EU “ line .
People only really appreciate what they had when it’s gone .
I really don’t have a problem with Leavers flushing their freedoms down the toilet , if it was a case of they themselves choosing that for themselves then fine . The reason the country will never unite is they’ve also flushed away the freedoms and rights of others who wanted to keep those .
Thankfully I’m one of the lucky ones with parents who have given me something I treasure, my EU passport . Just so sad that many other Brits who wanted to Remain won’t have that available to them.
The yearly holiday to the EU will be unaffected bar a visa waiver like the the US or Australia.
This is a clear distinguishing factor from the Labour Party and their likely next leader Sir Keir Starmer as this tweet from the SCons today affirms
https://twitter.com/ScotTories/status/1222498375490162689?s=20
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/04/leave-voters-back-migration-of-skilled-eu-workers-poll
I wouldn't have thought Crohn's was much different, although obviously depends somewhat on the severity of the condition since I understand Crohn's has a lot of variance.
Crohn's & Colitis UK I think used to have some information about "preferred suppliers" who were more likely to provide reasonable premiums. I can't find this on their website anymore, but may be worth asking them. In either case, the best cover is unlikely to be found via an aggregator site.
https://twitter.com/zarahsultana/status/1222555670911897601?s=21
But I suspect we are in for a lot of Remainer catastrophizing given Friday....
900 000 Britons live in the EU out of a population of 66 million ie little more than 1%
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jan/27/fewer-britons-in-rest-of-europe-than-previously-thought-ons-research
The SNP’s siding with Corbyn and the ERG to torpedo Theresa May’s softish Brexit, which would have produced a much more frictionless border than Boris Johnson is aiming at, looks short-sighted.
Up there with voting down the Callaghan administration.
(before we go on, and I hope you don't think me rude, but I'm not sure you know what the word "right" means. It's something you don't have to ask permission for, or justify, or have taken away from you without due process. Following Brexit, Britons working on the Continent may not be allowed to take up a post even if qualified or may be evicted from it without having broken any terms. That's the difference between an option and a right)
But enough angels on pin heads. Most U.K. citizens have chosen to go and work in countries where they only ever had “an option” as you put it.
This is the second or third (fourth?) time this has cropped up. PB Leavers genuinely don't seem to understand that post-Brexit their ability to live in another EU country will qualitatively change. Before: one has the right. After: one may have the option...but not the right. It's the difference between taking and asking.
[1] https://europa.eu/youreurope/citizens/residence/residence-rights/index_en.htm
Politics-wise, some government departments and a handful of local authorities feature; the Welsh Assembly and Welsh Government are at numbers 8 and 9.
https://www.stonewall.org.uk/full-list-top-100-employers-2020
They tend to get a bit.. uppity about it.
They will rEU the day they lost us.
https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/1222620440910352386?s=20
Boris’s slogan in December might be quite effective: ‘do you really want to go through all this again?’
As that post aimed at distraction demonstrates.
I think Spain will do some sort of deal as they depend a lot on British expats for their economy, and probably France too - they’ve certainly started making moves in that direction.
Perhaps it might be harder in places like Italy and Greece, where British ex-pat communities are relatively smaller, but they may take a different view too.
There appear to be two vectors for Unionists:
(1) Try and fracture the nationalist ‘45%’ voting coalition, by going heavily on the record of Holyrood and the economy. This is probably a tough ask, and I sense that group is firmer than it looks; the SNP response will obviously be to blame any failings on “Westminster austerity” so they’ll instead need to cite direct examples of administrative incompetence and policy decisions made in Holyrood. Those won’t always work but they will distract the SNP and put it on the defensive.
(2) Work on soft unionists from last time who may be tempted to jump the other way this time. For those, the economic arguments redux vis a vis the EU and the UK look like they could be pretty powerful, as Richard states in his article.
I could see a range of results if an indyref2 were to be called (say late 2021 or 2022, for arguments sake) with 40% for independence probably being the absolute floor to 52-53% in favour if everything goes right.
It’s simplistic to say one thing or person doomed the Callaghan government. The real issue was of course that it had no majority and following the IMF bailout and the Winter of Discontent had lost public support.
I personally think that Boris can and will hold the line of refusing a further referendum until the next Holyrood elections. if the SNP or even the SNP + Greens get a majority there on the back of a policy of having a second referendum further resistance will be pointless and ill advised. Whatever the leadership may have said in 2014 the people will have chosen a second referendum and that is their right.
By that time, of course, we will have a trade deal with the EU. The nature of that trade deal is going to be of considerable importance in the discussion since it is likely to form the basis of border regulation between Scotland and rUK should Scotland leave the UK and rejoin the EU. If that trade deal involves friction at the border Scotland has a major problem. If, as I expect, it doesn't with no tariffs, limits and broad mutual recognition of standards, it may be manageable. Nicola finds herself in the position of hoping that Boris gets a good deal for very similar reasons to those that Richard points out should have resulted in her backing May's deal. If it doesn't the consequences for Scotland of having such a border at Berwick would be severe.
Where remain will again go wrong is assuming that when people lose their jobs, some smug remainer going "aaaaahhh we told you so" is going to make them change their minds. It will always be someone else's fault. Lots of talk this morning about FOM - I'm absolutely clear that large swathes of leave voters have no idea this applies to them. Even the smaller impacts of this like the huge delays getting through customs will provoke reams of angry Daily Mail reports.
Yet as I have already posted on local Facebook groups about the coming big cuts to local government funding "this is what you voted for". As long as the identity crisis of the English remains, Brexit will remain popular even as the impacts of Brexit become increasingly unpopular.
https://twitter.com/newcastlecc/status/1222776884783730689?s=21