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  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Brom said:

    Finally got my Labour membership through. +1 vote for Super Keir.

    the Tories will be secretly delighted with you. Not as much as a vote for RLB mind.

    I find it incredulous Labour MPs and members are not coalescing around Nandy. She is by far the superior candidate, yet for some reason they want more of the same. If you want a lawyer I'm sure Starmer is great, but he sounds anything but a leader and the problem is it's not like he can assemble a decent team around him. Labour need direction, swagger, ideas and an understanding of why they lost. Keir Starmer is offering the opposite.
    Well I might change my mind as the contest progresses. I will see how they perform in the hustings.

    I disagree with your assessment of KS anyway. He’s competent and can articulate and debate effectively. That’s a million times better than the current state.

    Nandy is a hell of a risk.
    IMO you take risks and you win elections. Cameron and Boris were risks and near enough got the job done at the ballot box. Howard won some ground back but he was a safe pair of hands who did not win (I appreciate Corbyn was a risk that didn't work out). Starmer has the look and feel of a Howard and I question his capability to rebrick the red wall in a head to head with Johnson providing the economy has not tanked by 2025.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    It is always wet in Manchester.

    The hard data says otherwise. That said, I have only been there once and it pissed it down.
    My test for is it raining in Manchester - if I'm visiting the answer is Yes, it's raining.

    I have zero luck with the weather when going there.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Stanley Baldwin made the same complaint about the Etonian dominance, going on to say he wanted six Old Harrovians in his Cabinet.

    He was woke! :smile:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Northern Ireland unionists consider the Republic of Ireland a hostile power not the UK and of course 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election.

    Diehard Remainers like William Glenn will always push for just being a province of a Federal EU state and joining the Euro but more moderate Remainers would accept just rejoining the single market and EFTA as a compromise rather than that, a proposal that could win over soft Leavers unlike bring part of a Federal EU.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited January 2020

    I think he was very very lucky in his opponent. Blair in his prime would have eviscerated him.

    Well peak Blair was a political phenom. But for this GE, "Get Brexit Done" was a very potent message. I think it caught the mood of the country. I also think that any Ref2 would have been a win for Remain and that these two things are not contradictory.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Finally got my Labour membership through. +1 vote for Super Keir.

    And where are your 2nd and 3rd prefs going?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    kle4 said:

    I dont see what's dull about his delivery. Hes just not exciting, he's medium.

    Yes. That is spot on. He is not enormously entertaining but neither is he deadly dull. Hats off for not buying into the hype on this one.
    There's a heartfelt tribute which would definitely win him my vote if I had one.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @HYUFD campaigning for EFTA or the EEA as an end in itself would be the same fatal mistake the Lib Dems made campaigning for AV. It enthuses no one. Meanwhile Leavers could indulge in all the race-baiting they used last time.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit. Sadly, for them, they reacted in outraged horror and instinctively aimed to reverse the vote, altogether.

    Then TMay went for her foolish red lines, and here we are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020

    @HYUFD campaigning for EFTA or the EEA as an end in itself would be the same fatal mistake the Lib Dems made campaigning for AV. It enthuses no one. Meanwhile Leavers could indulge in all the race-baiting they used last time.

    Yet Sir Keir Starmer, the likely next Labour leader, has already shifted from backing EUref2 towards an EEA, single market alignment position.

    The Tories of course would stick to a hard Brexit position regardless, if we rejoin the EEA it would likely be Labour that takes us back in with diehard Remainers sticking with the LDs
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    RobD said:

    She's back already?

    Never in doubt. I would much rather see Burgon as campaign manager for her but the voters of Durham North West put paid to that. Forgive them, Father, for they know not what they do.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:



    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.

    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit. Sadly, for them, they reacted in outraged horror and instinctively aimed to reverse the vote, altogether.

    Then TMay went for her foolish red lines, and here we are.
    There was no such moment. Theresa May’s red lines were an accurate reflection of the mandate obtained. Leavers seem to have more difficulty accepting what they campaigned for than Remainers do in acknowledging what the Leave campaign comprised.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    Guatemala and the Philippines have a number of things in common, the most obvious of which, like many poorer countries, is that the capital city is a shithole while the rest is lovely.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    @HYUFD campaigning for EFTA or the EEA as an end in itself would be the same fatal mistake the Lib Dems made campaigning for AV. It enthuses no one. Meanwhile Leavers could indulge in all the race-baiting they used last time.

    The selling point of EFTA is free movement and the single market, without re-entering EU political structures. Or the euro.

    You underestimate the appeal of that. Packaged properly it could propel the LDs to great success.

    Rejoin is a much harder sell, and requires the winning of another very difficult and unwanted referendum.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:



    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.

    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit. Sadly, for them, they reacted in outraged horror and instinctively aimed to reverse the vote, altogether.

    Then TMay went for her foolish red lines, and here we are.
    There was no such moment. Theresa May’s red lines were an accurate reflection of the mandate obtained. Leavers seem to have more difficulty accepting what they campaigned for than Remainers do in acknowledging what the Leave campaign comprised.
    Look at your own absurd and apoplectic comments ever since the vote. You are the living proof of my thesis. Sorry.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Byronic said:

    @HYUFD campaigning for EFTA or the EEA as an end in itself would be the same fatal mistake the Lib Dems made campaigning for AV. It enthuses no one. Meanwhile Leavers could indulge in all the race-baiting they used last time.

    The selling point of EFTA is free movement and the single market, without re-entering EU political structures. Or the euro.

    You underestimate the appeal of that. Packaged properly it could propel the LDs to great success.

    Rejoin is a much harder sell, and requires the winning of another very difficult and unwanted referendum.
    The public voted for two things: hosing the NHS with money and being horrid to foreigners. The EEA and EFTA have all the defects of
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited January 2020
    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020
    Byronic said:

    @HYUFD campaigning for EFTA or the EEA as an end in itself would be the same fatal mistake the Lib Dems made campaigning for AV. It enthuses no one. Meanwhile Leavers could indulge in all the race-baiting they used last time.

    The selling point of EFTA is free movement and the single market, without re-entering EU political structures. Or the euro.

    You underestimate the appeal of that. Packaged properly it could propel the LDs to great success.

    Rejoin is a much harder sell, and requires the winning of another very difficult and unwanted referendum.
    Yes, I could see a future Labour and LD coalition government taking us into EFTA and back into the EEA. Even the Tories might eventually accept that in time.

    However rejoin is off the agenda for a generation, probably forever if it requires the Euro, an EU army etc too
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789

    kinabalu said:

    Agreed. It is possible this is an attack line from CCO, that they are desperately trying to get traction with. I don't think he is any duller than most politicians from either side. I think what worries the Tories is that he is sensible, whereas the man they have elected leader, whilst apparently affable, is a first rate pillock, that was only successful at the GE because the abject awfulness of Jeremy Corbyn and John Mcdonnell.

    A serious person for a serious role could work.

    Agree with you on Starmer. The more I cogitate and debate, the more I gravitate towards him. Do not fully agree with you on Johnson though. Yes, a pillock, OMG yes, but IMO politically very savvy and with genuine appeal to blue collars and apoliticals. I think he won the GE more than anybody else lost it.
    I think he was very very lucky in his opponent. Blair in his prime would have eviscerated him.
    Thanks for the turgid insight. He fought the battle against the opponent he had, not against a different opponent in a different place.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:

    @HYUFD campaigning for EFTA or the EEA as an end in itself would be the same fatal mistake the Lib Dems made campaigning for AV. It enthuses no one. Meanwhile Leavers could indulge in all the race-baiting they used last time.

    The selling point of EFTA is free movement and the single market, without re-entering EU political structures. Or the euro.

    You underestimate the appeal of that. Packaged properly it could propel the LDs to great success.

    Rejoin is a much harder sell, and requires the winning of another very difficult and unwanted referendum.
    Yes, I could see a future Labour and LD coalition government taking us into EFTA and back into the EEA. Even the Tories might eventually accept that in time.

    However rejoin is off the agenda for a generation, probably forever if it requires the Euro, an EU army etc too
    And how well/badly the EU economy does relatively.

    Just wondering how badly Von der Leyen's green deal will crash growth. Its central to her 'mandate' apparently.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    Fascinating, thanks.

    The key number is the 18% who want another referendum within a year

    They’re the hardcore Remainers. So my guess is pretty good. Maybe 5m active voters? Even more?

    That’s a huge pool of support waiting to be harvested. Great news for the Lib Dems, potentially
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Good piece, AM&F. This crowd look to be reliable lobby fodder. They won't trouble Johnson with any challenge or [independent] thought.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    What "acceptance meter?" The question was about whether people would like to remain, not whether we are going to. X is happening does not imply x is desirable.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit...
    And when exactly was that moment ?
    Sounds like a textbook example of what begging the question actually means.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    IshmaelZ said:

    There's a heartfelt tribute which would definitely win him my vote if I had one.

    :smile:

    Yes, I passionately want less passion. Pidcock was the one who stirred my porridge and she is not an option. Perhaps just as well since 32 is far too young to be Labour leader and I am not blind to her lack of traction with Middle England.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    What "acceptance meter?" The question was about whether people would like to remain, not whether we are going to. X is happening does not imply x is desirable.
    It has been a consistent theory of some on here that once leaving is seen to have become inevitable/actually happened, then Brexit will disappear as a political issue.
    That seems... optimistic.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    IshmaelZ said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    What "acceptance meter?" The question was about whether people would like to remain, not whether we are going to. X is happening does not imply x is desirable.
    Wanting to remain even though we are definitely leaving is an indication of non-acceptance, surely? Those that thing Brexit is undesirable but needs to be gone through with are presumably counted in the 48%.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changingalways been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit...
    And when exactly was that moment ?
    Sounds like a textbook example of what begging the question actually means.
    The day after the vote up to TMay’s redline speech. That was the window of opportunity.

    Even after then, there were times when, if Remain and nervous Leavers had United around EEA, it might have won.

    Instead, Remainers went for the evil insanity of ignoring the vote and demanding another (or just revoke!). Vile, stupid, crazy shit. Now they have to eat crow. So it goes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    Fascinating, thanks.

    The key number is the 18% who want another referendum within a year

    They’re the hardcore Remainers. So my guess is pretty good. Maybe 5m active voters? Even more?

    That’s a huge pool of support waiting to be harvested. Great news for the Lib Dems, potentially
    Because that was proved at the general election....
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    edited January 2020

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    Fascinating, thanks.

    The key number is the 18% who want another referendum within a year

    They’re the hardcore Remainers. So my guess is pretty good. Maybe 5m active voters? Even more?

    That’s a huge pool of support waiting to be harvested. Great news for the Lib Dems, potentially
    Because that was proved at the general election....
    They totally fucked it up with Revoke! As some of us on here pointed out, at the time
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changingalways been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit...
    And when exactly was that moment ?
    Sounds like a textbook example of what begging the question actually means.
    The day after the vote up to TMay’s redline speech. That was the window of opportunity.

    Even after then, there were times when, if Remain and nervous Leavers had United around EEA, it might have won.

    Instead, Remainers went for the evil insanity of ignoring the vote and demanding another (or just revoke!). Vile, stupid, crazy shit. Now they have to eat crow. So it goes.
    That sounds like a considerable rewriting of history to me. What HYUFD came charmingly to refer to as the diehards didn’t really come into existence until after the red lines speech.
  • On the Nandy vs Starmer debate, I think there is a danger of neglecting the timing issue. Of course it is the case that Sir Keir is the only 'oven-ready' PM-in-waiting of the five candidates (except for, at a pinch, Emily Thornberry, but no-one seems to want her), and that Lisa Nandy doesn't cut it if that's what you're looking for. However, Labour doesn't need an oven-ready candidate: the oven is not going to be switched on for another four years or so. They shouldn't be trying to choose the best candidate for the 2019 election. Whoever is chosen - if she has the potential - has oodles of time to grow into the role.

    On that basis, Sir Keir is the safest choice, but he might not be the better choice over Lisa Nandy. The rest can be dismissed with varying degrees of contempt.
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changingalways been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit...
    And when exactly was that moment ?
    Sounds like a textbook example of what begging the question actually means.
    The day after the vote up to TMay’s redline speech. That was the window of opportunity.

    Even after then, there were times when, if Remain and nervous Leavers had United around EEA, it might have won.

    Instead, Remainers went for the evil insanity of ignoring the vote and demanding another (or just revoke!). Vile, stupid, crazy shit. Now they have to eat crow. So it goes.
    That sounds like a considerable rewriting of history to me. What HYUFD came charmingly to refer to as the diehards didn’t really come into existence until after the red lines speech.
    Imagine if virtually all of Remain had coalesced around EEA/soft Brexit on June 17 2016. It would have been unstoppable. Not least because Leave, at the time, was very divided and persuadable.

    Anyway. Enough. We Brexit. Life goes on.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    @Verulamius mentioned that he (?) was next to me in a lift once. I was oblivious.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    Fascinating, thanks.

    The key number is the 18% who want another referendum within a year

    They’re the hardcore Remainers. So my guess is pretty good. Maybe 5m active voters? Even more?

    That’s a huge pool of support waiting to be harvested. Great news for the Lib Dems, potentially
    Because that was proved at the general election....
    They totally fucked it up with Revoke! As some of us on here pointed out, at the time
    And "Bollocks to Brexit".
  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578

    On the Nandy vs Starmer debate, I think there is a danger of neglecting the timing issue. Of course it is the case that Sir Keir is the only 'oven-ready' PM-in-waiting of the five candidates (except for, at a pinch, Emily Thornberry, but no-one seems to want her), and that Lisa Nandy doesn't cut it if that's what you're looking for. However, Labour doesn't need an oven-ready candidate: the oven is not going to be switched on for another four years or so. They shouldn't be trying to choose the best candidate for the 2019 election. Whoever is chosen - if she has the potential - has oodles of time to grow into the role.

    On that basis, Sir Keir is the safest choice, but he might not be the better choice over Lisa Nandy. The rest can be dismissed with varying degrees of contempt.

    Nandy is intriguing. None of the others are.

    But I’m not labours target demographic. To put it mildly.

    Ok enough. Netflix and wine....
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    edited January 2020
    Incidentally, this thread is proof that, occasionally, an ultra-Remainer and a strident Brexiteer can sink their differences and cooperate to achieve a shared goal. So maybe there is hope for this country after all.

    I wonder if a Trump supporter and a Bernie fan could write a similar article in the US? Or a Putinista and an opposition member in Russia?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    There was no such moment. Theresa May’s red lines were an accurate reflection of the mandate obtained. Leavers seem to have more difficulty accepting what they campaigned for than Remainers do in acknowledging what the Leave campaign comprised.

    Take back control of our laws, money and BORDERS.
  • Just in case it has been missed, 4,995 Momentum members voted to back Rebecca Long-Bailey to be Labour leader. That was just over 70% of the turnout. Momentum membership is said to be 40,000, so she clearly has not generated any kind of enthusiasm among the part of Labour you would have thought she would get the most buy-in from.

    However, by winning that endorsement - however feeble - she now gets full access to the Momentum database, which is thought to be composed of about 100,000 people. That gives her a huge advantage over all the other candidates as they do not have anything siumilar with which to begin talking to the Labour membership. Momentum will also campaign for her via social media, through phone bamks and in meetings, etc. It's a big step forward for her campaign.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    edited January 2020
    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.
  • I see we are back to the same old same old talking points / statements.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I'm sure it is not that uncommon. Coincidence is overrated and nearly all of us have a lot in common meaning it is much more likely, yet we mostly don't know what each other looks like.

    I was outed (subtly) here many years ago by Park Town Boy. He responded to one of my posts using my first name. I have my suspicions as to who he is, but he would never confirm it to me, even by way of a clue.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    I see we are back to the same old same old talking points / statements.

    Yes. Starmer is dull. Yawn (as it were).
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    FF43 said:

    Byronic said:

    Nice useful piece guys.

    Incidentally, talking of Mr Meeks, what do PBers think will happen to the ultra Remainers after January 31?

    Seems to be this is the biggest unasked question in British politics. Go on Twitter and it’s obvious a lot of people are still very very unhappy about Brexit, and still seek to reverse it in some way.

    How many of them are there? I reckon it’s in the millions. Maybe 5 million at a mad guess? Plus all the EU citizens here. That is a lot of people and if they start to caucus they could be very powerful. With Corbyn gone that’s easier. They can organize against the Tories without worrying they are letting in a Stalinist.

    But will they? Or will they slowly accept the inevitable and fade from salience?

    According to a BMG poll this week, 52% of the population. I admit to being surprised that the acceptance meter hasn't moved one iota, even though Brexit is now actually happening.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-poll-remain-eu-boris-johnson-leave-bmg-poll-a9279996.html
    Fascinating, thanks.

    The key number is the 18% who want another referendum within a year

    They’re the hardcore Remainers. So my guess is pretty good. Maybe 5m active voters? Even more?

    That’s a huge pool of support waiting to be harvested. Great news for the Lib Dems, potentially
    Because that was proved at the general election....
    They totally fucked it up with Revoke! As some of us on here pointed out, at the time
    That just compounded the first error. Immediately after the vote the remain side went all nuclear with it was thick northern geriatric racists that voted leave and then the press ran a campaign that all these leavers were running around perpetrating hate crimes against Europeans. After this there was never any chance of a reconciliation because the wedge had been driven very deep.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Phil said:

    The victim mentality amongst Leavers never ends does it?

    Everything is always someone else’s fault.
    If I was a Leaver I'd be a bit worried about this tone: after all it was the Old Bolsheviks that went to the cellars first.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    edited January 2020
    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Nigelb said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changingalways been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Thanks, that’s the honest answer I was seeking. I disagree with most of it (re Brexit) but I appreciate your candor

    It looks to me like Remainers will be fatally divided again, between ultra rejoiners and EFTA pragmatists.
    EEA Leavers are trying to put themselves at the hinge point of politics again. They will fail again. Their position is the reverse of the one that the public is looking for.
    Yes, I agree with that. There was a moment after the vote when Remainers could easily have got very soft Brexit...
    And when exactly was that moment ?
    Sounds like a textbook example of what begging the question actually means.
    The day after the vote up to TMay’s redline speech. That was the window of opportunity.

    Even after then, there were times when, if Remain and nervous Leavers had United around EEA, it might have won.

    Instead, Remainers went for the evil insanity of ignoring the vote and demanding another (or just revoke!). Vile, stupid, crazy shit. Now they have to eat crow. So it goes.
    That sounds like a considerable rewriting of history to me. What HYUFD came charmingly to refer to as the diehards didn’t really come into existence until after the red lines speech.
    Imagine if virtually all of Remain had coalesced around EEA/soft Brexit on June 17 2016. It would have been unstoppable. Not least because Leave, at the time, was very divided and persuadable....
    Whereas Remain were a solid voting block ?
    With who leading them... Corbyn ?

    As I say, fantasy.

    (And, of course, without the whole Corbyn problem, the referendum might well have turned out otherwise. But that is pretty useless speculation too.)
  • kinabalu said:

    Starmer is a barrister so should be able to hold Boris to account at PMQs. Trouble is, they said that about Michael Howard yet he barely dented Tony Blair. And if Starmer did lay a glove on Boris, I expect he'd find ever more elaborate reasons not to turn up.

    Starmer is soporifically dull. I doubt any voter can stay awake listening to this man. However, there is training and coaching available. It worked for Mrs Thatcher. Until it does, RLB and Nandy beat him for charisma.

    I do not see Starmer as the solution, except in the negative sense that electing anyone else will make Starmer the king across the water, which could split the party.

    So many people are saying this - Starmer dull - that I have to wonder if there is something wrong with me. I actively and positively like seeing and listening to him. Elegant sentences, nicely modulated voice, complex arguments skillfully distilled. When he's on the TV or the radio I am more than happy to pay attention. OK, so I won't necessarily drop what I'm doing in order to give him my absolute undivided, but I certainly won't turn him off.

    I suspect what we have rolling here is a trope. "Starmer dull" gets out there - and it sounds on the surface a reasonable assertion - and people then jump on the bandwagon for all sorts of different reasons. Some to make themselves look knowledgeable, most perhaps simply because it's more comfortable to go with the crowd. Not saying you are doing this - as if! - but I do think that this is essentially what is going on. It does happen a lot. Gerrard and Lampard can't play together. No hangover with vodka. It's always wet in Manchester.
    I applied the Youtube test. A couple of minutes of a few videos.

    What worries me is Labour might try to jazz him up like Gordon Brown and not like Margaret Thatcher. Mrs T famously had her voice and clothes revamped. Brown was persuaded (or persuaded himself) into stunts aping Blair or Cameron which (a) made him look worse than them, and (b) threw away his usp as the dour and solid elder statesman: not flash, just Gordon.

    So I want to see SKS, if elected, coached to speak more engagingly, but not aping Boris in a hard hat with a broom.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,052
    Incidentally, the 107/109 differential in the number of new Conservative MPs could be if we included a couple who had been MPs previously, whereas others discounted those. Without access to their lists, it's speculation however.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,559
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Northern Ireland unionists consider the Republic of Ireland a hostile power not the UK and of course 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election.

    Diehard Remainers like William Glenn will always push for just being a province of a Federal EU state and joining the Euro but more moderate Remainers would accept just rejoining the single market and EFTA as a compromise rather than that, a proposal that could win over soft Leavers unlike bring part of a Federal EU.
    A united Ireland would be an excellent outcome for everyone who accepts geographical reality; it takes a religious fanatic to fail to see it.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. D, 'bollocks to Brexit' was tedious and foolish but only a minor mistake.

    Shifting to revoke as a policy was nuts for the Lib Dems. Swinson got high on her own supply, and in so doing put off moderates. It was also dumb in that a Lib Dem majority was always going to be far harder than a second referendum (and win for Remain).

    There was no upside to such a policy.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Well, I've had a sizeable bet (for me) on Starmer to win. 1.75 on Betfair is too long imho, and has the option to hedge later. Starmer had a large lead in the YouGov poll, and the Survation poll isn't a representative sample of members. He's even picking up Union endorsements at an impressive early rate, something RLB is so far stuck on. Nandy or, less likely, Phillips, could catch fire. But unless they do then this is a two-horse race with a strong frontrunner. Should be 1.5 or a touch shorter: And probably will be at some point if there is another poll like YouGovs or CLP endorsements (he has the first two to declare) keep racking up. So I can probably trade out for a profit if I get shaky.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says. The EU standing in the world is close to zero because of these tactics, it has annoyed Turkey so much that they are turning to Putin, The Balkans will be next, the Swiss are just about to vote no again to FoM and they have not learned their lesson and are so trying the same with the UK.
    Trump is doing the same.

    Who is winning China by offering, maybe in words only win-win joint co-operation deals.

    The EU is being incredibly dumb forcing the UK away from a friendly joint cooperation deal.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer is a barrister so should be able to hold Boris to account at PMQs. Trouble is, they said that about Michael Howard yet he barely dented Tony Blair. And if Starmer did lay a glove on Boris, I expect he'd find ever more elaborate reasons not to turn up.

    Starmer is soporifically dull. I doubt any voter can stay awake listening to this man. However, there is training and coaching available. It worked for Mrs Thatcher. Until it does, RLB and Nandy beat him for charisma.

    I do not see Starmer as the solution, except in the negative sense that electing anyone else will make Starmer the king across the water, which could split the party.

    So many people are saying this - Starmer dull - that I have to wonder if there is something wrong with me. I actively and positively like seeing and listening to him. Elegant sentences, nicely modulated voice, complex arguments skillfully distilled. When he's on the TV or the radio I am more than happy to pay attention. OK, so I won't necessarily drop what I'm doing in order to give him my absolute undivided, but I certainly won't turn him off.

    I suspect what we have rolling here is a trope. "Starmer dull" gets out there - and it sounds on the surface a reasonable assertion - and people then jump on the bandwagon for all sorts of different reasons. Some to make themselves look knowledgeable, most perhaps simply because it's more comfortable to go with the crowd. Not saying you are doing this - as if! - but I do think that this is essentially what is going on. It does happen a lot. Gerrard and Lampard can't play together. No hangover with vodka. It's always wet in Manchester.
    I applied the Youtube test. A couple of minutes of a few videos.

    What worries me is Labour might try to jazz him up like Gordon Brown and not like Margaret Thatcher. Mrs T famously had her voice and clothes revamped. Brown was persuaded (or persuaded himself) into stunts aping Blair or Cameron which (a) made him look worse than them, and (b) threw away his usp as the dour and solid elder statesman: not flash, just Gordon.

    So I want to see SKS, if elected, coached to speak more engagingly, but not aping Boris in a hard hat with a broom.
    Gordon Brown jogging.

    Gordon Brown in a under sized flak jacket and steel helmet.

    Two more things for SKS to avoid doing when photographers are present.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says. The EU standing in the world is close to zero because of these tactics, it has annoyed Turkey so much that they are turning to Putin, The Balkans will be next, the Swiss are just about to vote no again to FoM and they have not learned their lesson and are so trying the same with the UK.
    Trump is doing the same.

    Who is winning China by offering, maybe in words only win-win joint co-operation deals.

    The EU is being incredibly dumb forcing the UK away from a friendly joint cooperation deal.
    “They need us more than we need them”
  • "Gerrard and Lampard can't play together."

    The evolution of this, of course, is interesting in its own right.

    At the start, these two got in at the expense of, amongst others, Paul Scholes.

    Of course they could play together, they were top, top players.

    Since both have retired, I think both have accepted that a midfield 2 of the pair of them was not as effective as it could have been.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230

    kinabalu said:

    Starmer is a barrister so should be able to hold Boris to account at PMQs. Trouble is, they said that about Michael Howard yet he barely dented Tony Blair. And if Starmer did lay a glove on Boris, I expect he'd find ever more elaborate reasons not to turn up.

    Starmer is soporifically dull. I doubt any voter can stay awake listening to this man. However, there is training and coaching available. It worked for Mrs Thatcher. Until it does, RLB and Nandy beat him for charisma.

    I do not see Starmer as the solution, except in the negative sense that electing anyone else will make Starmer the king across the water, which could split the party.

    So many people are saying this - Starmer dull - that I have to wonder if there is something wrong with me. I actively and positively like seeing and listening to him. Elegant sentences, nicely modulated voice, complex arguments skillfully distilled. When he's on the TV or the radio I am more than happy to pay attention. OK, so I won't necessarily drop what I'm doing in order to give him my absolute undivided, but I certainly won't turn him off.

    I suspect what we have rolling here is a trope. "Starmer dull" gets out there - and it sounds on the surface a reasonable assertion - and people then jump on the bandwagon for all sorts of different reasons. Some to make themselves look knowledgeable, most perhaps simply because it's more comfortable to go with the crowd. Not saying you are doing this - as if! - but I do think that this is essentially what is going on. It does happen a lot. Gerrard and Lampard can't play together. No hangover with vodka. It's always wet in Manchester.
    I applied the Youtube test. A couple of minutes of a few videos.

    What worries me is Labour might try to jazz him up like Gordon Brown and not like Margaret Thatcher. Mrs T famously had her voice and clothes revamped. Brown was persuaded (or persuaded himself) into stunts aping Blair or Cameron which (a) made him look worse than them, and (b) threw away his usp as the dour and solid elder statesman: not flash, just Gordon.

    So I want to see SKS, if elected, coached to speak more engagingly, but not aping Boris in a hard hat with a broom.
    He doesn't seem to be someone with Brown's insecurities, so such behaviour seems unlikely.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,559

    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says. The EU standing in the world is close to zero because of these tactics, it has annoyed Turkey so much that they are turning to Putin, The Balkans will be next, the Swiss are just about to vote no again to FoM and they have not learned their lesson and are so trying the same with the UK.
    Trump is doing the same.

    Who is winning China by offering, maybe in words only win-win joint co-operation deals.

    The EU is being incredibly dumb forcing the UK away from a friendly joint cooperation deal.
    Agree. It is not, sadly, that there are good and bad answers and we can intelligentl;y choose the good. There are no good outcomes form here because of what (with our government's consent) the EU has become. Is is practically impossible to leave, and democratically unacceptable to stay. This fact is at least as old as the Euro. Until the EU accepts that an even more variable geometry iis the only way forward the problem will remain.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    @Verulamius mentioned that he (?) was next to me in a lift once. I was oblivious.

    Imagine if you'd farted!

    But rather more seriously, there is something truly intimate about sharing a lift with a stranger. For the (hopefully) brief time that it takes you are together in a way that is quite intense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230

    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says....
    Has it ?
    There are just more big boys playing the game, now that China is a real power.


  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    edited January 2020

    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says. The EU standing in the world is close to zero because of these tactics, it has annoyed Turkey so much that they are turning to Putin, The Balkans will be next, the Swiss are just about to vote no again to FoM and they have not learned their lesson and are so trying the same with the UK.
    Trump is doing the same.

    Who is winning China by offering, maybe in words only win-win joint co-operation deals.

    The EU is being incredibly dumb forcing the UK away from a friendly joint cooperation deal.
    “They need us more than we need them”
    Nigelb said:

    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says....
    Has it ?
    There are just more big boys playing the game, now that China is a real power.


    As I stated, The West has not i.e the EU and the USA. China has.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited January 2020
    kinabalu said:

    @Verulamius mentioned that he (?) was next to me in a lift once. I was oblivious.

    Imagine if you'd farted!

    But rather more seriously, there is something truly intimate about sharing a lift with a stranger. For the (hopefully) brief time that it takes you are together in a way that is quite intense.
    In Resistance by M R D Foot, there was a wonderful tale from Romania about a British agent on the way to a wedding, who was stuck in a lift with a delightful young lady.

    Final sentence included the words, "actually I'm the bride."
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    kjh said:

    I'm sure it is not that uncommon. Coincidence is overrated and nearly all of us have a lot in common meaning it is much more likely, yet we mostly don't know what each other looks like.

    I was outed (subtly) here many years ago by Park Town Boy. He responded to one of my posts using my first name. I have my suspicions as to who he is, but he would never confirm it to me, even by way of a clue.

    Yes, that observation about co-incidence being commonplace rings true. Seem to recall it was said by a famous fictional character too. A shrewd sort. Sherlock Holmes, possibly, or it could well have been Inspector Morse. So would have been said to either Dr Watson or to Sergeant Lewis, depending.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,559
    edited January 2020

    Just in case it has been missed, 4,995 Momentum members voted to back Rebecca Long-Bailey to be Labour leader. That was just over 70% of the turnout. Momentum membership is said to be 40,000, so she clearly has not generated any kind of enthusiasm among the part of Labour you would have thought she would get the most buy-in from.

    However, by winning that endorsement - however feeble - she now gets full access to the Momentum database, which is thought to be composed of about 100,000 people. That gives her a huge advantage over all the other candidates as they do not have anything siumilar with which to begin talking to the Labour membership. Momentum will also campaign for her via social media, through phone bamks and in meetings, etc. It's a big step forward for her campaign.

    If RLB is going to be the Labour leader and obviously PM by 2024 at the latest (!!) a small question needs to be resolved: has there ever been a Roman Catholic Prime Minister? I can't think of one. I think she will be the first.

    Blair is disqualified, he only went RC after retiring.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    dr_spyn said:

    In Resistance by M R D Foot, there was a wonderful tale from Romania about a British agent on the way to a wedding, who was stuck in a lift with a delightful young lady.

    Final sentence included the words, "actually I'm the bride."

    :smile: I didn't mean quite that intense. But, yes, one's thoughts often turn in that direction when the doors close and it's just the two of you.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    d abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Northern Ireland unionists consider the Republic of Ireland a hostile power not the UK and of course 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election.

    Diehard Remainers like William Glenn will always push for just being a province of a Federal EU state and joining the Euro but more moderate Remainers would accept just rejoining the single market and EFTA as a compromise rather than that, a proposal that could win over soft Leavers unlike bring part of a Federal EU.
    There are two flaws with quoting percentages from a General Election as proof or justification for something other than the actual GE result:

    a) You don't know that is how they would vote otherwise. At a GE they are voting on a plethora of stuff and on a constituency basis so you can not deduce the voters are voting for a particular national policy.

    b) This is a very dangerous tool to use if you are in favour of FPTP because by your logic Boris lost the election, something I am guessing you do not agree with and therefore you are contradicting yourself.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Quincel said:

    Well, I've had a sizeable bet (for me) on Starmer to win. 1.75 on Betfair is too long imho, and has the option to hedge later. Starmer had a large lead in the YouGov poll, and the Survation poll isn't a representative sample of members. He's even picking up Union endorsements at an impressive early rate, something RLB is so far stuck on. Nandy or, less likely, Phillips, could catch fire. But unless they do then this is a two-horse race with a strong frontrunner. Should be 1.5 or a touch shorter: And probably will be at some point if there is another poll like YouGovs or CLP endorsements (he has the first two to declare) keep racking up. So I can probably trade out for a profit if I get shaky.

    Good call. And whatever you put on I would recommend doing triple on Rayner at 1.23 for Deputy.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    I agree with all of that. It will be a cold day in hell before I vote Tory again and I hope that they reap the Brexit whirlwind.

    At this point I have reached maximum Rhett Butler because "Frankly my dear, I don't give a d*mn"
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    It rather depends. Have you been in a South American whorehouse consoling a drunken Navy flyer by saying that it's OK, lots of people get blocked carburettors, and just a cuddle will be perfectly fine?
    :)
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    It rather depends. Have you been in a South American whorehouse consoling a drunken Navy flyer by saying that it's OK, lots of people get blocked carburettors, and just a cuddle will be perfectly fine?
    Great post.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,127

    FF43 said:

    There was a massive contradiction behind Brexit. A close working relationship with our neighbours, as a non-member, means doing what the EU tells us with no say. People voted Leave to "take control", but this would result in the UK being less in control than ever. Unlike May, Johnson doesn't try to square the circle. He has resolved Brexit in favour of not having a working relationship with the EU and our neighbours. It wasn't what I was expecting and it may not be sustainable, in which case we will need to decide on active participation or doing what we are told.

    You have not understood that the world has moved on from these colonial tactics for doing what the so called big boy says...
    No it hasn't. You could argue that the identity of the big boys have changed, but the powerful will do as they will whilst the powerless will suffer what they must.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    kinabalu said:

    dr_spyn said:

    In Resistance by M R D Foot, there was a wonderful tale from Romania about a British agent on the way to a wedding, who was stuck in a lift with a delightful young lady.

    Final sentence included the words, "actually I'm the bride."

    :smile: I didn't mean quite that intense. But, yes, one's thoughts often turn in that direction when the doors close and it's just the two of you.
    Puts a whole new perspective on your earlier comment...
    ...I'm telling you that I desperately want a woman.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,805
    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    It rather depends. Have you been in a South American whorehouse consoling a drunken Navy flyer by saying that it's OK, lots of people get blocked carburettors, and just a cuddle will be perfectly fine?
    Great post.
    Yep one of the funniest posts I have seen in a long time and there are some good ones on here.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    It rather depends. Have you been in a South American whorehouse consoling a drunken Navy flyer by saying that it's OK, lots of people get blocked carburettors, and just a cuddle will be perfectly fine?
    Great post.
    Though I think underestimates the intensity of someone's relationship with the internal combustion engine.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 437
    algarkirk said:



    If RLB is going to be the Labour leader and obviously PM by 2024 at the latest (!!) a small question needs to be resolved: has there ever been a Roman Catholic Prime Minister? I can't think of one. I think she will be the first.

    Blair is disqualified, he only went RC after retiring.

    Under Catholic Canon Law, of course, Johnson is still a Catholic. But he probably doesn't see it that way.

    But let's be honest. Her chances of getting to be PM are as remote as IDS's were: also a Catholic, AND he still was when he was LOTO.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    dr_spyn said:

    Gordon Brown jogging.

    Gordon Brown in a under sized flak jacket and steel helmet.

    Two more things for SKS to avoid doing when photographers are present.

    I do agree. If Starmer gets it I hope they let Keir be Keir. The last thing I want to start hearing is how he wakes up with Stormzy, or that if he wasn't a politician he would be a deep water fisherman.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    kinabalu said:

    Quincel said:

    Well, I've had a sizeable bet (for me) on Starmer to win. 1.75 on Betfair is too long imho, and has the option to hedge later. Starmer had a large lead in the YouGov poll, and the Survation poll isn't a representative sample of members. He's even picking up Union endorsements at an impressive early rate, something RLB is so far stuck on. Nandy or, less likely, Phillips, could catch fire. But unless they do then this is a two-horse race with a strong frontrunner. Should be 1.5 or a touch shorter: And probably will be at some point if there is another poll like YouGovs or CLP endorsements (he has the first two to declare) keep racking up. So I can probably trade out for a profit if I get shaky.

    Good call. And whatever you put on I would recommend doing triple on Rayner at 1.23 for Deputy.
    I know a guy who got £1k on her at 7/4. Wish I was holding that book!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    I don`t think I have - I feel that I know you so well through your posts that I am confident I`d recognise you in crowd.

    If I see someone wandering about who fits the description I have of you in my head I`ll come over and give you a poke.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    kjh said:

    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    It rather depends. Have you been in a South American whorehouse consoling a drunken Navy flyer by saying that it's OK, lots of people get blocked carburettors, and just a cuddle will be perfectly fine?
    Great post.
    Yep one of the funniest posts I have seen in a long time and there are some good ones on here.
    I have to say it's not easy to get a "great post" from me but that one sailed through easily.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Nigelb said:

    Puts a whole new perspective on your earlier comment...
    ...I'm telling you that I desperately want a woman.

    :smile: I take the fifth and thus we must move on.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    TOPPING said:

    Great post.

    +1 !!
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    That's the way to do it! Pick an election winner loser to help your campaign!

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1217791486105878528?s=20
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Byronic said:


    Thanks for that, sincerely - but I could have written all that myself. It’s what you always say. Do you just cut and paste?!

    I was actually asking a different and more interesting (to me) question. How will brexit affect your political perspective and voting behaviour? Will you join the Lib Dems and campaign for bre-entry? Will you slink off to Hungary and lick your wounds and abandon British politics? Perhaps you might push for EFTA status (the best bet for Remainers, to my mind)

    You clearly don’t have to answer me, but an answer would be enlightening

    I have never been a member of a political party and I have never campaigned for anything. I don't see that changing now (not least because I doubt my support would be helpful).

    How will it affect my political outlook? Well, I will never vote Conservative again as long as I live.

    As to how others will react, there are too many variables to consider really. Will Northern Ireland effectively now drift into the arms of the Republic of Ireland? Will Scotland go independent? Both seem likely in time - no point remaining colonies of a hostile power, as both have now effectively become.

    One likely consequence is that there is likely to be a renewed interest in English devolution. Londoners are going to get fed up very quickly of shelling even larger sums of money out to people who hate everything they stand for.

    The extremism demonstrated by Leavers is likely to mean that Remainers continue to press for full EU membership. Why should they aim for half a loaf when their nuttier opponents are buying newspapers that accuse them of sabotaging Big Ben's bongs? They're going to see that as a reason to stick to their principles. And why should they? Leave is the same nihilist destructive force it has always been. No Leaver has set out any remotely plausible positive agenda. Till Leavers find some way of including Remainers, Remainers are going to stay of the same mind.
    Northern Ireland unionists consider the Republic of Ireland a hostile power not the UK and of course 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties at the general election.

    Diehard Remainers like William Glenn will always push for just being a province of a Federal EU state and joining the Euro but more moderate Remainers would accept just rejoining the single market and EFTA as a compromise rather than that, a proposal that could win over soft Leavers unlike bring part of a Federal EU.
    A united Ireland would be an excellent outcome for everyone who accepts geographical reality; it takes a religious fanatic to fail to see it.

    Geographical reality? People should have no choice but to accept a single state on an island?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    TOPPING said:

    viewcode said:

    kinabalu said:

    I just sat next to @tissueprice by pure chance in the atrium of portcullis house. Of course, he didn’t recognise me as he has no idea who I am or what I look like in real life.

    Small world!

    I wonder if you or any other PBer has ever sat next to me at any point? It's unlikely but not impossible. I do get around.
    It rather depends. Have you been in a South American whorehouse consoling a drunken Navy flyer by saying that it's OK, lots of people get blocked carburettors, and just a cuddle will be perfectly fine?
    Great post.
    It could be comedy gold, or Viewcode could just be reporting the truth.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited January 2020
    Stocky said:

    I don`t think I have - I feel that I know you so well through your posts that I am confident I`d recognise you in crowd.

    If I see someone wandering about who fits the description I have of you in my head I`ll come over and give you a poke.

    Well, perhaps buy me a drink and a packet of crisps first.

    But on appearance, it's so easy to get that wrong based on internet chat. Paul Newman circa 1963 is what I see in the mirror but I bet you don't picture me that way.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    Quincel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Quincel said:

    Well, I've had a sizeable bet (for me) on Starmer to win. 1.75 on Betfair is too long imho, and has the option to hedge later. Starmer had a large lead in the YouGov poll, and the Survation poll isn't a representative sample of members. He's even picking up Union endorsements at an impressive early rate, something RLB is so far stuck on. Nandy or, less likely, Phillips, could catch fire. But unless they do then this is a two-horse race with a strong frontrunner. Should be 1.5 or a touch shorter: And probably will be at some point if there is another poll like YouGovs or CLP endorsements (he has the first two to declare) keep racking up. So I can probably trade out for a profit if I get shaky.

    Good call. And whatever you put on I would recommend doing triple on Rayner at 1.23 for Deputy.
    I know a guy who got £1k on her at 7/4. Wish I was holding that book!
    It's going well for me

    +923.73 Starmer
    +1009.14 Long Bailey
    +742.8 Nandy
    +351.08 Philips
    +1183.77 Thornberry

    That's including the additional 18% commission Betfair will get from Premium charge.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    I don`t think I have - I feel that I know you so well through your posts that I am confident I`d recognise you in crowd.

    If I see someone wandering about who fits the description I have of you in my head I`ll come over and give you a poke.

    Well, perhaps buy me a drink and a packet of crisps first.

    But on appearance, it's so easy to get that wrong based on internet chat. Paul Newman circa 1963 is what I see in the mirror but I bet you don't picture me that way.
    1.85 m tall, slim build, early 40s, bald by design, effeminate demeanour, black.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Quincel said:

    Well, I've had a sizeable bet (for me) on Starmer to win. 1.75 on Betfair is too long imho, and has the option to hedge later. Starmer had a large lead in the YouGov poll, and the Survation poll isn't a representative sample of members. He's even picking up Union endorsements at an impressive early rate, something RLB is so far stuck on. Nandy or, less likely, Phillips, could catch fire. But unless they do then this is a two-horse race with a strong frontrunner. Should be 1.5 or a touch shorter: And probably will be at some point if there is another poll like YouGovs or CLP endorsements (he has the first two to declare) keep racking up. So I can probably trade out for a profit if I get shaky.

    Good call. And whatever you put on I would recommend doing triple on Rayner at 1.23 for Deputy.
    I know a guy who got £1k on her at 7/4. Wish I was holding that book!
    It's going well for me

    +923.73 Starmer
    +1009.14 Long Bailey
    +742.8 Nandy
    +351.08 Philips
    +1183.77 Thornberry

    That's including the additional 18% commission Betfair will get from Premium charge.
    You put me to shame! I'm roughly:

    Starmer +500
    RLB -400
    Nandy -500
    Phillips +250
    Thornberry -100

    It's not a perfect book, but it's not a shabby book all told. It passes the test of 'If I had no bets and someone offered me this book would I take it'.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Quincel said:

    Well, I've had a sizeable bet (for me) on Starmer to win. 1.75 on Betfair is too long imho, and has the option to hedge later. Starmer had a large lead in the YouGov poll, and the Survation poll isn't a representative sample of members. He's even picking up Union endorsements at an impressive early rate, something RLB is so far stuck on. Nandy or, less likely, Phillips, could catch fire. But unless they do then this is a two-horse race with a strong frontrunner. Should be 1.5 or a touch shorter: And probably will be at some point if there is another poll like YouGovs or CLP endorsements (he has the first two to declare) keep racking up. So I can probably trade out for a profit if I get shaky.

    Good call. And whatever you put on I would recommend doing triple on Rayner at 1.23 for Deputy.
    I know a guy who got £1k on her at 7/4. Wish I was holding that book!
    It's going well for me

    +923.73 Starmer
    +1009.14 Long Bailey
    +742.8 Nandy
    +351.08 Philips
    +1183.77 Thornberry

    That's including the additional 18% commission Betfair will get from Premium charge.
    That`s impressive. Here`s where I`m at:

    +1120 Starmer
    +890 Long Bailey
    +1420 Nandy
    - 850 (approx) Philips
    +2,200 Thornberry
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    edited January 2020
    Quincel said:


    You put me to shame! I'm roughly:

    Starmer +500
    RLB -400
    Nandy -500
    Phillips +250
    Thornberry -100

    It's not a perfect book, but it's not a shabby book all told. It passes the test of 'If I had no bets and someone offered me this book would I take it'.

    One check is to divide by the Betfair implied midprice.

    Starmer +500/1.735 = £288.18
    RLB -400/3.425 = -£116.78
    Nandy -500/9.4 = -£53.19
    Phillips +250/45 = +£5.55
    Thornberry -100/130 = -£0.76

    So objectively it is worth £123.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    TOPPING said:

    I have to say it's not easy to get a "great post" from me but that one sailed through easily.

    It certainly isn't. It's the equivalent of a 10 from Craig Revel Horwood - or even the Paul Hollywood "handshake".

    517 days since I got one. And counting.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    And, I also bumped into the one Tory minister I’m personal friends with on the parliamentary estate today too and had a 5-min conversation with him too. Haven’t seen him in years.

    How’s that for serendipity?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Quincel said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Quincel said:

    kinabalu said:

    Quincel said:

    Well, I've had a sizeable bet (for me) on Starmer to win. 1.75 on Betfair is too long imho, and has the option to hedge later. Starmer had a large lead in the YouGov poll, and the Survation poll isn't a representative sample of members. He's even picking up Union endorsements at an impressive early rate, something RLB is so far stuck on. Nandy or, less likely, Phillips, could catch fire. But unless they do then this is a two-horse race with a strong frontrunner. Should be 1.5 or a touch shorter: And probably will be at some point if there is another poll like YouGovs or CLP endorsements (he has the first two to declare) keep racking up. So I can probably trade out for a profit if I get shaky.

    Good call. And whatever you put on I would recommend doing triple on Rayner at 1.23 for Deputy.
    I know a guy who got £1k on her at 7/4. Wish I was holding that book!
    It's going well for me

    +923.73 Starmer
    +1009.14 Long Bailey
    +742.8 Nandy
    +351.08 Philips
    +1183.77 Thornberry

    That's including the additional 18% commission Betfair will get from Premium charge.
    You put me to shame! I'm roughly:

    Starmer +500
    RLB -400
    Nandy -500
    Phillips +250
    Thornberry -100

    It's not a perfect book, but it's not a shabby book all told. It passes the test of 'If I had no bets and someone offered me this book would I take it'.
    Starmer +160
    RLB -280
    Nandy + 290
    Philips +80
    Thornberry +180
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222

    And, I also bumped into the one Tory minister I’m personal friends with on the parliamentary estate today too and had a 5-min conversation with him too. Haven’t seen him in years.

    How’s that for serendipity?

    You should have said hello to tissue price.
This discussion has been closed.