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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Shock Of The Blue – The new Conservative intake of 2019 (P

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  • glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    He's been driven so far round the bend by Brexit that he's now coming back to sense again.
    Perhaps Blair should study the case of IDS; the Tory party (well, the HYUFD wing) seem to love that warmongering fan of US poodle-ism.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,944
    edited January 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Boris is not tall. The new intake must all be short arses, or they have banished anybody over five foot six to the staircase.

    Good spot. The staging is clearly designed to add a couple of inches to the Great Man. He is quite short, as you say, but the Party goes to great lengths to keep this fact from the public. Reminds me of Roosevelt and his wheelchair.
    With one exception -- it is said that when visiting injured soldiers, FDR insisted on using his wheelchair to go from bed to bed.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    But where would North Nottinghamshire be based.

    The dispute between Retford and Worksop over Bassetlaw was pretty bad.

    And if you brought Mansfield and Newark into the same council area ...
    Who gives a toss? You can't base local government organisation on parochial concerns, that way lies the 'North Newcastle Tyneside Mayoral Authority' or whatever ludicrous name it has.

    Impose it, and tell the local councillors to STFU.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    He's been driven so far round the bend by Brexit that he's now coming back to sense again.
    Perhaps Blair should study the case of IDS; the Tory party (well, the HYUFD wing) seem to love that warmongering fan of US poodle-ism.
    The Tory Party now also loves Brexit, unlike Blair IDS supports Brexit
  • EPG said:

    Am I very naive or is the LGB community disproportionately represented among MPs.

    Lots of groups are disproportionately represented: Etonians, historians, even Conservatives.

    According to Pink News: There are now 20 Tories, 15 Labour and 10 SNP MPs who identify as LGBT+.
    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/13/uk-gay-parliament-world-2019-general-election-snp-conservatives-labour-lgbt/
  • Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    But where would North Nottinghamshire be based.

    The dispute between Retford and Worksop over Bassetlaw was pretty bad.

    And if you brought Mansfield and Newark into the same council area ...
    Who gives a toss? You can't base local government organisation on parochial concerns, that way lies the 'North Newcastle Tyneside Mayoral Authority' or whatever ludicrous name it has.

    Impose it, and tell the local councillors to STFU.
    So 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best'.

    I'm not sure that is still a widely held view.

    And its not a view that tends to win votes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230

    Dura_Ace said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    Nice. Central America and the Caribbean are my least visted parts of the world. Trinidad for a day is the sum total.
    Well I've done Panama to Guatemala on this trip and it has been fun. Gave me the time to help Mr Meeks with this thread. Nicaragua and Guatemala have been the best.
    In the 90s there used to be a whorehouse in Panama that also had a go-kart track. Mine had blocked jets in the carb.
    'This has never happened to me before'
    Likely untrue.
    I'm pretty sure @Dura_Ace will have fiddled with carburettors in establishments across the globe.
  • kinabalu said:

    Boris is not tall. The new intake must all be short arses, or they have banished anybody over five foot six to the staircase.

    Good spot. The staging is clearly designed to add a couple of inches to the Great Man. He is quite short, as you say, but the Party goes to great lengths to keep this fact from the public. Reminds me of Roosevelt and his wheelchair.
    With one exception -- it is said that when visiting injured soldiers, FDR insisted on using his wheelchair to go from bed to bed.
    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230

    kinabalu said:

    Boris is not tall. The new intake must all be short arses, or they have banished anybody over five foot six to the staircase.

    Good spot. The staging is clearly designed to add a couple of inches to the Great Man. He is quite short, as you say, but the Party goes to great lengths to keep this fact from the public. Reminds me of Roosevelt and his wheelchair.
    With one exception -- it is said that when visiting injured soldiers, FDR insisted on using his wheelchair to go from bed to bed.
    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).
    The same height as Pinckney, whom shortarse Madison defeated for the presidency.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    But where would North Nottinghamshire be based.

    The dispute between Retford and Worksop over Bassetlaw was pretty bad.

    And if you brought Mansfield and Newark into the same council area ...
    Who gives a toss? You can't base local government organisation on parochial concerns, that way lies the 'North Newcastle Tyneside Mayoral Authority' or whatever ludicrous name it has.

    Impose it, and tell the local councillors to STFU.
    So 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best'.

    I'm not sure that is still a widely held view.

    And its not a view that tends to win votes.
    People complained bitterly about Heath's local government reorganisation for decades.
  • EPG said:

    Am I very naive or is the LGB community disproportionately represented among MPs.

    Lots of groups are disproportionately represented: Etonians, historians, even Conservatives.

    According to Pink News: There are now 20 Tories, 15 Labour and 10 SNP MPs who identify as LGBT+.
    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/13/uk-gay-parliament-world-2019-general-election-snp-conservatives-labour-lgbt/
    Estimate of the LGBT+ proportion of the public at large differ quite a lot, which makes comparison difficult.

    More politicians are publicly LGBT but this is a different question - depending on personal characteristics, perception of being outed etc.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
  • novanova Posts: 692

    I have not been posting much recently due to my household diy duties but I see RLB is top of todays survation poll for labour leader

    It is a matter for labour members and supporters to choose their leader but are they really going to install Corbyn MK2 in office and consign themselves either to decades in opposition or more likely split the party

    Although it's Survation involved, and they've done some weighting, it's still based on readers of Labour List (and possibly self-selecting too), rather than the full membership.

    I'd definitely put more weight on the YouGov poll for now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    Lots of groups are disproportionately represented: Etonians, historians, even Conservatives.

    According to Pink News: There are now 20 Tories, 15 Labour and 10 SNP MPs who identify as LGBT+.
    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/13/uk-gay-parliament-world-2019-general-election-snp-conservatives-labour-lgbt/

    Looks about right then - on LGBT, I mean, not Old Etonians.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West
    In the UK it depends what Farage metastasizes into after 1 Vendémiaire at the end of the month.

    Subsequent to the glorious day he will be suffering from relevancy deprivation syndrome so there will undoubtedly be another crackpot right wing political movement aimed at people who drive P reg Rover 100s with odd coloured doors.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    Bit of a stretch - Sanders is not exactly nailed on to get the nomination.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Looking at MPs on the basis of sexuality or race is harder than it looks as a task. Not all MPs are forthcoming about their sexuality (fair enough) and at what point does one reach the Elizabeth Warren Pocahontas point?

    If any MPs identify as non-binary, I've not picked up on that. So we were able to look at gender.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).

    Bloomberg could blow that one to smithereens if he makes it. I once shared a lift with him in Frankfurt and was struck by his all round petiteness. A genuinely small man. I was also struck by his charisma. It was like he had a humming energy field around him. He dominated that lift.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,468

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.
    TBH I suspect that Nandy would rather put the frighteners on Boris. She's a pleasant looking woman, the type he would expect to be able to charm, but I suspect that she's a lot tougher than those he's used to, and he'd be puzzled and out of his depth.
  • HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    He's been driven so far round the bend by Brexit that he's now coming back to sense again.
    Perhaps Blair should study the case of IDS; the Tory party (well, the HYUFD wing) seem to love that warmongering fan of US poodle-ism.
    The Tory Party now also loves Brexit, unlike Blair IDS supports Brexit
    In about 10 years time, when the evidence eventually shows Brexit for the the pile of shit that it is, old ladies, women and children will be trampled underfoot by the rush of Tories disowning that they ever really believed in it, much like those who have questioned the Iraq war with the benefit of hindsight.

    Only IDS in his dotage will still be advocating it as a good idea, as even the wisdom of hindsight and changing facts do not change the mind of someone of so little brain.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    Here's one northern MP who isn't campaigning for HS2:

    https://twitter.com/Alex_Stafford/status/1216253050257539072

    HS2 probably doesn't make sense under the Treasury's new rules even ignoring the increased costs.

    HS3 or Northern Power Rail definitely does.

    Both are totally needed to fix outside major city capacity issues on the mainline routes but that won't stop it being killed.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Eek. The climate in Leeds and Manchester is shite. Newcastle, shite but less so. This is a major detriment on quality of life there.

    London has a pretty great climate April to October and is a great place to live if you have some money.
    I have money - I wouldn't have it if I was paying a mortgage down south.

    The £20,000 or so I save a year (generous estimate it probably be higher) does wonders for my pension and holiday choices.
    The cost of living is balanced by higher salaries. London has the highest household disposable income of any region in the UK. It's not even that close.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/regionalaccounts/grossdisposablehouseholdincome/bulletins/regionalgrossdisposablehouseholdincomegdhi/1997to2017#main-points
    And if you can earn the same salary from anywhere in the UK why would you live in London?

    Granted I'm lucky but the current market rate for my skill set in London, Glasgow or anywhere is £100k(plus) + full expenses. If anything rates outside London are higher as the people just don't exist.
    Then good for you. But accept that you are in a remarkably unusual circumstance. The general point – that cash-in-pocket and quality of life in northern cities is better than in London is a classic PB myth: it is simply not borne out by the evidence.
    If you are in IT I don't think the circumstances are that unusual. While rates of pay are slightly lower up north, a lot of firms pay London rates because it keeps their good staff.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    kinabalu said:

    Boris is not tall. The new intake must all be short arses, or they have banished anybody over five foot six to the staircase.

    Good spot. The staging is clearly designed to add a couple of inches to the Great Man. He is quite short, as you say, but the Party goes to great lengths to keep this fact from the public. Reminds me of Roosevelt and his wheelchair.
    With one exception -- it is said that when visiting injured soldiers, FDR insisted on using his wheelchair to go from bed to bed.
    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).
    One of the new Conservative MPs claimed it was easier to come out as gay nowadays than as a freemason. I'm not sure how many teenagers have been thrown out onto the streets by their parents for being freemasons. It displayed a woeful lack of understanding of the lives that many people lead outside his comfortable middle class world.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230

    kinabalu said:

    Boris is not tall. The new intake must all be short arses, or they have banished anybody over five foot six to the staircase.

    Good spot. The staging is clearly designed to add a couple of inches to the Great Man. He is quite short, as you say, but the Party goes to great lengths to keep this fact from the public. Reminds me of Roosevelt and his wheelchair.
    With one exception -- it is said that when visiting injured soldiers, FDR insisted on using his wheelchair to go from bed to bed.
    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).
    One of the new Conservative MPs claimed it was easier to come out as gay nowadays than as a freemason. I'm not sure how many teenagers have been thrown out onto the streets by their parents for being freemasons. It displayed a woeful lack of understanding of the lives that many people lead outside his comfortable middle class world.
    He's surely talking about coming out as an adult politician, rather than as a kid ?
    After all, how many teenage freemasons are there ?
  • Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    But where would North Nottinghamshire be based.

    The dispute between Retford and Worksop over Bassetlaw was pretty bad.

    And if you brought Mansfield and Newark into the same council area ...
    Who gives a toss? You can't base local government organisation on parochial concerns, that way lies the 'North Newcastle Tyneside Mayoral Authority' or whatever ludicrous name it has.

    Impose it, and tell the local councillors to STFU.
    So 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best'.

    I'm not sure that is still a widely held view.

    And its not a view that tends to win votes.
    Give me a defence of two tier local authority areas...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.

    Do not share your glum prognosis for Labour but I am coming around to Starmer as 1st pref over Nandy. I do wish he were a woman though. "Female" is a valid and important attribute for this election and he offers none of it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405
    edited January 2020

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    But where would North Nottinghamshire be based.

    The dispute between Retford and Worksop over Bassetlaw was pretty bad.

    And if you brought Mansfield and Newark into the same council area ...
    Who gives a toss? You can't base local government organisation on parochial concerns, that way lies the 'North Newcastle Tyneside Mayoral Authority' or whatever ludicrous name it has.

    Impose it, and tell the local councillors to STFU.
    So 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best'.

    I'm not sure that is still a widely held view.

    And its not a view that tends to win votes.
    Give me a defence of two tier local authority areas...
    Easy - mayors look after regional issues - local authorities look after issues (schools, adult care....) where scale and geographical area makes size more a problem than a benefit.

    Personally there are a lot of council tasks where delivery at a local level is essential but where advice, support, guidance and networking is needed to ensure best practices are being followed and developed.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    I agree with you that Sanders has a good chance of beating Trump. But all that would confirm is the ongoing triumph of _populism_, with a rare left variant to break up the tidal wave of rightwing populist domination around the world.

    As for today, look at countries as varied as India, the USA, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Brazil, Hungary, Austria, the UK, Israel ... some new to the right-populist game, others years or decades in. Even Germany may shift to the right after Merkeldämmerung.

    Britain just gave a landslide to its first right-populist PM 5 weeks ago. The cultural and economic issues that created this new populist age aren't going away any time soon, and may well intensify.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Good piece by Stephen Bush in which he highlights the advantage RLB has in respect of targetting members:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/keir-starmer-favourite-be-labour-leader-party-s-ruling-faction-may-have-other
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    kinabalu said:

    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).

    Bloomberg could blow that one to smithereens if he makes it. I once shared a lift with him in Frankfurt and was struck by his all round petiteness. A genuinely small man. I was also struck by his charisma. It was like he had a humming energy field around him. He dominated that lift.
    You're too modest.

    He still talks, to this day, about sharing that lift with you.....
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    kinabalu said:

    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.

    Do not share your glum prognosis for Labour but I am coming around to Starmer as 1st pref over Nandy. I do wish he were a woman though. "Female" is a valid and important attribute for this election and he offers none of it.
    Don't be so sexist ;-)
  • Northern Ireland Update :

    British Government have long pockets and short arms!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    England run rate around 2 an over.

    I hope this goes the full five days again.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    Nigelb said:

    Bit of a stretch - Sanders is not exactly nailed on to get the nomination.

    True but he is 3.7 for the nomination which implies an excellent chance. Although I will be astonished if he makes it. I'm laying him at these levels.

    It would really be something, though, a Trump v Sanders. Talk about polarization. No place to hide with that one -

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7ykxpGc8aE
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.
    TBH I suspect that Nandy would rather put the frighteners on Boris. She's a pleasant looking woman, the type he would expect to be able to charm, but I suspect that she's a lot tougher than those he's used to, and he'd be puzzled and out of his depth.
    She will, but is not sufficiently prime ministerial to worry him too much. I don't see her as having anymore credibility than Jo Swinson and look what happened to her.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    kinabalu said:

    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).

    Bloomberg could blow that one to smithereens if he makes it. I once shared a lift with him in Frankfurt and was struck by his all round petiteness. A genuinely small man. I was also struck by his charisma. It was like he had a humming energy field around him. He dominated that lift.
    Bloomberg could beat Trump and he would try to do something about guns and Climate Change. Whether he can get the nomination is another matter.
    I'm impressed that he's said he will still use his people and his money to help whoever is the Democratic choice against Trump if he's not selected.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Meanwhile, Starmer's article in yesterday's Guardian is as tedious as he is - Corbynism with a jawline:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/15/labour-socialism-values-election-economic-model

    It's all a 'the moral case for socialism', 'support common ownership', 'economic justice, social justice and climate justice'.

    Bleh. I know he's talking to his base, but this is still vomitous. The Red Wall's not coming back for this guff.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,468

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.
    TBH I suspect that Nandy would rather put the frighteners on Boris. She's a pleasant looking woman, the type he would expect to be able to charm, but I suspect that she's a lot tougher than those he's used to, and he'd be puzzled and out of his depth.
    She will, but is not sufficiently prime ministerial to worry him too much. I don't see her as having anymore credibility than Jo Swinson and look what happened to her.
    I think she's tougher than Swinson.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    kinabalu said:

    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.

    Do not share your glum prognosis for Labour but I am coming around to Starmer as 1st pref over Nandy. I do wish he were a woman though. "Female" is a valid and important attribute for this election and he offers none of it.
    I don`t believe that female is (or should be) any more an "attribute" than male is.

    Looking at this leadership contest from the perspective of who will be up against Johnson in 2024, Starmer looks and sounds the part and one can envisage him as PM much more than one can Nandy. However, the Tories have no ammunition against Nandy and Johnson will have to be careful he doesn`t appear bullying towards her.

    Starmer, however, is more of a known quantity to the Tories, and will have "surrender bill" and "Carl Beech" ringing round his ears. He`s as culpable as Watson is for the latter, but has largely escaped criticism (so far).

    So Nandy or Starmer (not RLB obviously)? Tricky.
  • eek said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    But where would North Nottinghamshire be based.

    The dispute between Retford and Worksop over Bassetlaw was pretty bad.

    And if you brought Mansfield and Newark into the same council area ...
    Who gives a toss? You can't base local government organisation on parochial concerns, that way lies the 'North Newcastle Tyneside Mayoral Authority' or whatever ludicrous name it has.

    Impose it, and tell the local councillors to STFU.
    So 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best'.

    I'm not sure that is still a widely held view.

    And its not a view that tends to win votes.
    Give me a defence of two tier local authority areas...
    Easy - mayors look after regional issues - local authorities look after issues (schools, adult care....) where scale and geographical area makes size more a problem than a benefit.

    Personally there are a lot of council tasks where delivery at a local level is essential but where advice, support, guidance and networking is needed to ensure best practices are being followed and developed.
    Regional Mayors aren’t a factor in two tier local authorities discussion, two tier is district plus county councils instead of unitary councils who combine both those powers into one council.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited January 2020
    Dura_Ace said:

    In the UK it depends what Farage metastasizes into after 1 Vendémiaire at the end of the month.

    Subsequent to the glorious day he will be suffering from relevancy deprivation syndrome so there will undoubtedly be another crackpot right wing political movement aimed at people who drive P reg Rover 100s with odd coloured doors.

    Yes watch that space. He is The Man for this stuff - nobody does it better - and he will be itching for some spotlight. Money can be no substitute for the rush of addressing an adoring throng of full-throated patriots.
  • kinabalu said:

    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.

    Do not share your glum prognosis for Labour but I am coming around to Starmer as 1st pref over Nandy. I do wish he were a woman though. "Female" is a valid and important attribute for this election and he offers none of it.
    I can understand why people in Labour are concerned that they still haven't had a female leader, and it certainly isn't a good look, but that is not a reason to take a "any woman will do" approach. I am not a Labour supporter, but as a centrist I very much want Labour to be a credible alternative government, even if they have policies I don't like. While they remain an impotent protest group they do nothing to moderate the ever rightward lurching of the party that was formally known as conservative.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020

    kinabalu said:

    And Boris is 5'9" so not that short. Heightism is the one acceptable -ism left (apart from all the others).

    Bloomberg could blow that one to smithereens if he makes it. I once shared a lift with him in Frankfurt and was struck by his all round petiteness. A genuinely small man. I was also struck by his charisma. It was like he had a humming energy field around him. He dominated that lift.
    Bloomberg could beat Trump and he would try to do something about guns and Climate Change. Whether he can get the nomination is another matter.
    I'm impressed that he's said he will still use his people and his money to help whoever is the Democratic choice against Trump if he's not selected.
    That was not Bloomberg himself but his manager and I cannot see it applying if Sanders is the nominee as Bloomberg has called him 'a demagogue' and Sanders loathes Bloomberg too. I suspect Bloomberg will run as an Independent in that scenario
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Fishing said:

    First on my own thread. Does that count?

    Lovely article. Thanks to you and @AlastairMeeks for it.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,405

    eek said:



    Who gives a toss? You can't base local government organisation on parochial concerns, that way lies the 'North Newcastle Tyneside Mayoral Authority' or whatever ludicrous name it has.

    Impose it, and tell the local councillors to STFU.

    So 'the gentleman in Whitehall knows best'.

    I'm not sure that is still a widely held view.

    And its not a view that tends to win votes.
    Give me a defence of two tier local authority areas...
    Easy - mayors look after regional issues - local authorities look after issues (schools, adult care....) where scale and geographical area makes size more a problem than a benefit.

    Personally there are a lot of council tasks where delivery at a local level is essential but where advice, support, guidance and networking is needed to ensure best practices are being followed and developed.
    Regional Mayors aren’t a factor in two tier local authorities discussion, two tier is district plus county councils instead of unitary councils who combine both those powers into one council.
    No different, some things require different levels of scale to others.

    Equally Anabobazina mentions the madness that is the Newcastle Mayoral authority so I did assume that was what we were talking about.

    But looking at County Durham as an example, one extra reason for two tier authorities is to avoid locals feeling completely ignored in decisions made 30+ miles away.

    It's possible to argue that Bishop Auckland has a Tory MP because the locals don't like being ignored by the Labour County Council.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    Nigelb said:

    England run rate around 2 an over.

    I hope this goes the full five days again.

    It's not great when the loss of Sibley actually reduces the scoring rate. I can't help feeling that England have seriously overshot here. Yes the somewhat cavalier crash bang wallop of recent years was not really test cricket but this is tedious and takes a lot of time out of the game. Unless this pitch livens up in the strong sun a draw looks a real possibility.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148

    HYUFD said:

    glw said:

    HYUFD said:
    He's been driven so far round the bend by Brexit that he's now coming back to sense again.
    Perhaps Blair should study the case of IDS; the Tory party (well, the HYUFD wing) seem to love that warmongering fan of US poodle-ism.
    The Tory Party now also loves Brexit, unlike Blair IDS supports Brexit
    In about 10 years time, when the evidence eventually shows Brexit for the the pile of shit that it is, old ladies, women and children will be trampled underfoot by the rush of Tories disowning that they ever really believed in it, much like those who have questioned the Iraq war with the benefit of hindsight.

    Only IDS in his dotage will still be advocating it as a good idea, as even the wisdom of hindsight and changing facts do not change the mind of someone of so little brain.
    I cannot see us ever rejoining the full EU now, even Starmer has shifted to single market and customs union alignment rather than rejoin
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited January 2020
    Stocky said:

    Good piece by Stephen Bush in which he highlights the advantage RLB has in respect of targetting members:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/keir-starmer-favourite-be-labour-leader-party-s-ruling-faction-may-have-other

    Given that RLB has the advantage of the labour list (link above) but is IMO too short to back now, is Burgon worth a punt at 11 with BF for Deputy? (I`m assuming Momentum is backing Burgon for deputy - has this been confirmed?)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    eek said:

    Returning to the previous thread - there is no way New Zealand will agree a union with the UK. The Kiwis like being at the end of the Earth and they know free movement means a lot more low-skilled Poms arriving. It would also mess up their arrangements with Australia. No doubt tongues were very firmly in cheeks when the suggestion was made. But for anyone who was inclined to take it seriously: don’t.

    Weren’t New Zealand and Australia built on low-skilled Poms arriving?
    Nope, it was built on Poms arriving some of whom were low-skilled.

    The idea that any country is willingly going to accept low-skilled workers on working visas is a fantasy - heck we left the EU because we didn't like it.
    The only way large-scale immigration of low skilled workers is accepted, is if they are on a temporary basis for a specific task such as agriculture - with their employers held responsible for ensuring they leave the country at the end of their contract.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    Cyclefree said:

    Fishing said:

    First on my own thread. Does that count?

    Lovely article. Thanks to you and @AlastairMeeks for it.
    Its the now available table that is the meat of it. Some serious work has gone into that and we should all be grateful. As usual better than anything I have seen on the MSM.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,627
    edited January 2020
    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    DavidL said:

    It's not great when the loss of Sibley actually reduces the scoring rate. I can't help feeling that England have seriously overshot here. Yes the somewhat cavalier crash bang wallop of recent years was not really test cricket but this is tedious and takes a lot of time out of the game. Unless this pitch livens up in the strong sun a draw looks a real possibility.

    Yes hats off the poster who tipped the draw at 6.6. yesterday. It's 3.5 now. I don't mind draws myself. The ground out 5th day 225 for 8 chasing 450 is an integral part of the game.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,914
    Sandpit said:

    eek said:

    Returning to the previous thread - there is no way New Zealand will agree a union with the UK. The Kiwis like being at the end of the Earth and they know free movement means a lot more low-skilled Poms arriving. It would also mess up their arrangements with Australia. No doubt tongues were very firmly in cheeks when the suggestion was made. But for anyone who was inclined to take it seriously: don’t.

    Weren’t New Zealand and Australia built on low-skilled Poms arriving?
    Nope, it was built on Poms arriving some of whom were low-skilled.

    The idea that any country is willingly going to accept low-skilled workers on working visas is a fantasy - heck we left the EU because we didn't like it.
    The only way large-scale immigration of low skilled workers is accepted, is if they are on a temporary basis for a specific task such as agriculture - with their employers held responsible for ensuring they leave the country at the end of their contract.
    “Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free.”
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.
    TBH I suspect that Nandy would rather put the frighteners on Boris. She's a pleasant looking woman, the type he would expect to be able to charm, but I suspect that she's a lot tougher than those he's used to, and he'd be puzzled and out of his depth.
    She will, but is not sufficiently prime ministerial to worry him too much. I don't see her as having anymore credibility than Jo Swinson and look what happened to her.
    I think she's tougher than Swinson.
    Agreed. Neil had Swinson apologising for everything she had ever done in coalition Government. Nandy was a far tougher nut on the Neil show.

    I obviously don't have a vote in the Labour ladership contest (nor would I want one - I was never a fan of the three quidders, not that they made any difference to the result). But if I did, I would vote for Nandy, on the basis that she seems the candidate who would be best for political dialogue in this country. If she helps keep my lot on the straight and narrow, all to the good.

    I don't have that confidence in the others to deliver a better politics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211
    edited January 2020
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Good piece by Stephen Bush in which he highlights the advantage RLB has in respect of targetting members:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/keir-starmer-favourite-be-labour-leader-party-s-ruling-faction-may-have-other

    Given that RLB has the advantage of the labour list (link above) but is IMO too short to back now, is Burgon worth a punt at 11 with BF for Deputy? (I`m assuming Momentum is backing Burgon for deputy - has this been confirmed?)
    I'm on Rayner at 1.2, "feels" as if she has broad support to me, biggest critisicm of her is that she should have gone for the top job.
    She'll move into favourite for leader once this election is over regardless of whether it is RLB or Starmer that gets the top job I think.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    HYUFD said:

    That was not Bloomberg himself but his manager and I cannot see it applying if Sanders is the nominee as Bloomberg has called him 'a demagogue' and Sanders loathes Bloomberg too. I suspect Bloomberg will run as an Independent in that scenario

    And with you then apologizing if you're wrong on that, remember.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    See if you can find my wallet and right shoe when you're in P. Burgos St.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    England run rate around 2 an over.

    I hope this goes the full five days again.

    It's not great when the loss of Sibley actually reduces the scoring rate. I can't help feeling that England have seriously overshot here. Yes the somewhat cavalier crash bang wallop of recent years was not really test cricket but this is tedious and takes a lot of time out of the game. Unless this pitch livens up in the strong sun a draw looks a real possibility.
    I'm not going to tempt fate.
    I'll merely point out that blunting the bowling attack enables a productive change of pace later on. And all credit to Crawley, who is barely a debutante.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Pulpstar said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Good piece by Stephen Bush in which he highlights the advantage RLB has in respect of targetting members:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/keir-starmer-favourite-be-labour-leader-party-s-ruling-faction-may-have-other

    Given that RLB has the advantage of the labour list (link above) but is IMO too short to back now, is Burgon worth a punt at 11 with BF for Deputy? (I`m assuming Momentum is backing Burgon for deputy - has this been confirmed?)
    I'm on Rayner at 1.2, "feels" as if she has broad support to me, biggest critisicm of her is that she should have gone for the top job.
    She'll move into favourite for leader once this election is over regardless of whether it is RLB or Starmer that gets the top job I think.
    If RLB gets the job, then I think Rayner will have a chance to throw her hat in the ring for leader before the next election.

    I do not see RLB surprising on the upside. Labour might find they need to grow a pair and face their own IDS moment.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    That is impressive, I was going to say that I`m off skiing in Austria on Sunday - but I won`t bother mentioning it now.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    edited January 2020
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    That was not Bloomberg himself but his manager and I cannot see it applying if Sanders is the nominee as Bloomberg has called him 'a demagogue' and Sanders loathes Bloomberg too. I suspect Bloomberg will run as an Independent in that scenario

    And with you then apologizing if you're wrong on that, remember.
    Once HYUFD has an idea fixed in his head, it takes quite a lot of shifting (outside of a change of Tory party leader, when it's all up for grabs). You might call him a diehard...
    Bloomberg is not going to run as an independent, as he realises it would make a Trump victory more, not less likely.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    That is impressive, I was going to say that I`m off skiing in Austria on Sunday - but I won`t bother mentioning it now.
    Meanwhile, today I'm in Birmingham and next week I'm in Manchester.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited January 2020

    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    That is impressive, I was going to say that I`m off skiing in Austria on Sunday - but I won`t bother mentioning it now.
    Meanwhile, today I'm in Birmingham and next week I'm in Manchester.
    Where will you be 31/1 Meeks? Parliament Square?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited January 2020
    Stocky said:

    I don`t believe that female is (or should be) any more an "attribute" than male is.

    Looking at this leadership contest from the perspective of who will be up against Johnson in 2024, Starmer looks and sounds the part and one can envisage him as PM much more than one can Nandy. However, the Tories have no ammunition against Nandy and Johnson will have to be careful he doesn`t appear bullying towards her.

    Starmer, however, is more of a known quantity to the Tories, and will have "surrender bill" and "Carl Beech" ringing round his ears. He`s as culpable as Watson is for the latter, but has largely escaped criticism (so far).

    So Nandy or Starmer (not RLB obviously)? Tricky.

    I like Nandy but I am concerned on the "credible PM" front. I was not as enamoured as some with her Neil interview yesterday.

    On the betting if I had a clean sheet I would be laying RLB at 3.5. That seriously overstates her chances IMO.

    Re gender, I disagree with you. It is a genuine problem that we have never had a female leader, therefore in this case being female is for me a valid attribute to be considered in the mix and in the round with the various other qualities that are needed.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    That was not Bloomberg himself but his manager and I cannot see it applying if Sanders is the nominee as Bloomberg has called him 'a demagogue' and Sanders loathes Bloomberg too. I suspect Bloomberg will run as an Independent in that scenario

    And with you then apologizing if you're wrong on that, remember.
    Once HYUFD has an idea fixed in his head, it takes quite a lot of shifting (outside of a change of Tory party leader, when it's all up for grabs).
    Bloomberg is not going to run as an independent, as he realises it would make a Trump victory more, not less likely.
    I think that is hard to judge. I can see Bloomberg being attractive to a lot of moderate Republicans and independents. Ross Perot certainly damaged the Republican candidates more than Clinton. I could see Bloomberg doing something similar.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    That is impressive, I was going to say that I`m off skiing in Austria on Sunday - but I won`t bother mentioning it now.
    Meanwhile, today I'm in Birmingham and next week I'm in Manchester.
    Where will you be 31/1 Meeks? Parliament Square?
    On 31 January 2020 I shall be in the EU.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    Totally agree with this. Unitaries are the way to go.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    EPG said:

    Am I very naive or is the LGB community disproportionately represented among MPs.

    In the worlds gayest parliament? Probably
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    I agree with you that Sanders has a good chance of beating Trump. But all that would confirm is the ongoing triumph of _populism_, with a rare left variant to break up the tidal wave of rightwing populist domination around the world.

    As for today, look at countries as varied as India, the USA, Russia, Turkey, Poland, Brazil, Hungary, Austria, the UK, Israel ... some new to the right-populist game, others years or decades in. Even Germany may shift to the right after Merkeldämmerung.

    Britain just gave a landslide to its first right-populist PM 5 weeks ago. The cultural and economic issues that created this new populist age aren't going away any time soon, and may well intensify.

    Perhaps Left/Right have become unhelpful terms. The populism I don't like is the type that has "making our country great" and/or "getting our country back" at the heart of its appeal. I'm not mad on economic populism either - being a sound money type - but I don't fear that anything like so much.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    That is impressive, I was going to say that I`m off skiing in Austria on Sunday - but I won`t bother mentioning it now.
    Meanwhile, today I'm in Birmingham and next week I'm in Manchester.
    Where will you be 31/1 Meeks? Parliament Square?
    On 31 January 2020 I shall be in the EU.
    Until 11 pm, so will I.....
  • novanova Posts: 692
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Good piece by Stephen Bush in which he highlights the advantage RLB has in respect of targetting members:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/01/keir-starmer-favourite-be-labour-leader-party-s-ruling-faction-may-have-other

    Given that RLB has the advantage of the labour list (link above) but is IMO too short to back now, is Burgon worth a punt at 11 with BF for Deputy? (I`m assuming Momentum is backing Burgon for deputy - has this been confirmed?)
    Momentum are initially backing Rayner. That's confirmed by their committee, and is currently being voted on by Momentum members (in a yes/no ballot).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    I still reckon I might hold the "Craziest Place to Post From on pb.com" award.

    Somalia. Anyone beat that?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    I still reckon I might hold the "Craziest Place to Post From on pb.com" award.

    Somalia. Anyone beat that?
    Blyth.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    Looking at the Premier League table, what a crazy season. Obviously, Liverpool with 15 points from 15, last five games are the best stats. But the next best - with 13 points each - are Watford and Southampton....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    I still reckon I might hold the "Craziest Place to Post From on pb.com" award.

    Somalia. Anyone beat that?
    Blyth.
    Fair does. I didn't need Kevlar.....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    kinabalu said:

    Stocky said:

    I don`t believe that female is (or should be) any more an "attribute" than male is.

    Looking at this leadership contest from the perspective of who will be up against Johnson in 2024, Starmer looks and sounds the part and one can envisage him as PM much more than one can Nandy. However, the Tories have no ammunition against Nandy and Johnson will have to be careful he doesn`t appear bullying towards her.

    Starmer, however, is more of a known quantity to the Tories, and will have "surrender bill" and "Carl Beech" ringing round his ears. He`s as culpable as Watson is for the latter, but has largely escaped criticism (so far).

    So Nandy or Starmer (not RLB obviously)? Tricky.

    I like Nandy but I am concerned on the "credible PM" front. I was not as enamoured as some with her Neil interview yesterday.

    On the betting if I had a clean sheet I would be laying RLB at 3.5. That seriously overstates her chances IMO.

    Re gender, I disagree with you. It is a genuine problem that we have never had a female leader, therefore in this case being female is for me a valid attribute to be considered in the mix and in the round with the various other qualities that are needed.
    It’s something Labourites talk about and worry about, but won’t vote about.

    The issue at the moment is they haven’t yet worked out a good enough narrative to explain electing Starmer. Once that’s established it will become mantra and the ‘problem’ will go away.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    Am I very naive or is the LGB community disproportionately represented among MPs.

    In the worlds gayest parliament? Probably
    It could be gayer.

    No one has yet suggested it’s lit up in rainbow colours for pride yet, to my knowledge.
  • kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    Totally agree with this. Unitaries are the way to go.
    I discussed this with a friend of mine who was a county councillor some time ago, when I was still a conservative party activist. He told me the biggest block to this comes from the voluntary Conservative Party - basically there will be less councillor posts for activists if you cut district councils. When you think about it, it makes absolute logical sense to realign our local government. Most voters have no idea what the difference is, and why we have so many tiers.
  • Forget Brexit, Forget Boris with a big majority.....much worse start to 2020, it looks like Mindhunters has been canned by Netflix.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Sandpit said:

    Fishing said:

    The single most interesting thing that I've learned from the exercise is that @Fishing has far more eyecatching travel destinations than I do.

    Dogger Bank? Western Approaches?
    Currently Guatemala since you ask.
    That’s impressive. I’m in Manila this week, thought that was a pretty unusual place for a PBer to be.
    (Good piece by the way)
    I still reckon I might hold the "Craziest Place to Post From on pb.com" award.

    Somalia. Anyone beat that?
    Have you been to Somaliland? I must confess I have a fascination at a distance with unofficial states. Somaliland from a distance looks like one of the most interesting (and by the standards of such things, reputable).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231

    I can understand why people in Labour are concerned that they still haven't had a female leader, and it certainly isn't a good look, but that is not a reason to take a "any woman will do" approach. I am not a Labour supporter, but as a centrist I very much want Labour to be a credible alternative government, even if they have policies I don't like. While they remain an impotent protest group they do nothing to moderate the ever rightward lurching of the party that was formally known as conservative.

    Point taken. But to be clear on this gender thing. I'm not saying "any woman will do". That would be ridiculous. What I'm saying is that in this special case Female is a valid attribute along with others such as charisma, competence, intellect, sense of humour, integrity, policy stance. It just takes its place in the list of attributes which we are looking for. A list of 7 (inc Female) if we go with these for the sake of argument.

    So for example - and this is purely to illustrate the point because I know it will not work as scientifically as this and nor should it - we could score each of the above attributes on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means have none of it and 10 means have it in spades, and then the winner is the person with the highest aggregate score. Starmer can therefore still win despite scoring quite low on Female. And he WILL win if his lead on other attributes is sufficient. That seems the right balance to me. Get the best person for the job with due consideration given to the desirability of having our 1st woman leader.
  • kinabalu said:

    Lots of groups are disproportionately represented: Etonians, historians, even Conservatives.

    According to Pink News: There are now 20 Tories, 15 Labour and 10 SNP MPs who identify as LGBT+.
    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2019/12/13/uk-gay-parliament-world-2019-general-election-snp-conservatives-labour-lgbt/

    Looks about right then - on LGBT, I mean, not Old Etonians.
    I've not yet checked but I believe about half the Etonian MPs retired (some because they'd been sacked by Boris).
  • kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    Am I very naive or is the LGB community disproportionately represented among MPs.

    In the worlds gayest parliament? Probably
    It could be gayer.

    No one has yet suggested it’s lit up in rainbow colours for pride yet, to my knowledge.
    Already happened.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/1284170/uk-parliament-lit-up-in-rainbow-colours/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,211

    Looking at the Premier League table, what a crazy season. Obviously, Liverpool with 15 points from 15, last five games are the best stats. But the next best - with 13 points each - are Watford and Southampton....

    Biggest difference between Liverpool and Man City is that Liverpool have got goals precisely when they need them as they're a remarkable 16 pts ahead of where they "should" be according to X-Goals.
  • kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Just like a Corbyn win really but we know how that worked out

    A fair (albeit rather curmudgeonly) comment. But on a more serious note, I do sense that this is the high watermark for Right Populism in the West and if that is correct it follows - laws of physics - that the tide is about to turn. On top of this we have the generally accepted maxim that America runs a little ahead of us in these matters. Conclusion? Sanders beats Trump in 2020. Labour return to government 2023 or 2024. No doubt you will rail against my interpretation but it does seem to fit.
    The latter is completely dependent on who Labour elects as leader and loads of other unknown "events". If the Labour membership is collectively thick enough to vote in Continuity-Corbyn-RLB, or even, IMO, the only slightly less lightweight Nandy, I think we will not see another Labour government for another 15 years minimum. That is why right wing Tories on here are so keen to big up Nandy. Only Starmer has the gravitas to put the shits up the Tory Party.
    TBH I suspect that Nandy would rather put the frighteners on Boris. She's a pleasant looking woman, the type he would expect to be able to charm, but I suspect that she's a lot tougher than those he's used to, and he'd be puzzled and out of his depth.
    She will, but is not sufficiently prime ministerial to worry him too much. I don't see her as having anymore credibility than Jo Swinson and look what happened to her.
    I think she's tougher than Swinson.
    Agreed. Neil had Swinson apologising for everything she had ever done in coalition Government. Nandy was a far tougher nut on the Neil show.

    I obviously don't have a vote in the Labour ladership contest (nor would I want one - I was never a fan of the three quidders, not that they made any difference to the result). But if I did, I would vote for Nandy, on the basis that she seems the candidate who would be best for political dialogue in this country. If she helps keep my lot on the straight and narrow, all to the good.

    I don't have that confidence in the others to deliver a better politics.
    That is because you are a Tory who hopes for a weak opposition. Most of you realise that if Starmer is up against the Clown, the Clown is going to look even more clownish. Starmer comes across as a heavyweight. Nandy comes across as a presentable middle manager at best, and will not be seen by the electorate as a credible PM in waiting
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    England run rate around 2 an over.

    I hope this goes the full five days again.

    It's not great when the loss of Sibley actually reduces the scoring rate. I can't help feeling that England have seriously overshot here. Yes the somewhat cavalier crash bang wallop of recent years was not really test cricket but this is tedious and takes a lot of time out of the game. Unless this pitch livens up in the strong sun a draw looks a real possibility.
    I'm not going to tempt fate.
    I'll merely point out that blunting the bowling attack enables a productive change of pace later on. And all credit to Crawley, who is barely a debutante.
    Damn, I jinxed him. Decent knock, though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,230

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    Am I very naive or is the LGB community disproportionately represented among MPs.

    In the worlds gayest parliament? Probably
    It could be gayer.

    No one has yet suggested it’s lit up in rainbow colours for pride yet, to my knowledge.
    Already happened.

    https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/westminster/1284170/uk-parliament-lit-up-in-rainbow-colours/
    Casino suppressing the memory ?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2020

    Looking at the Premier League table, what a crazy season. Obviously, Liverpool with 15 points from 15, last five games are the best stats. But the next best - with 13 points each - are Watford and Southampton....

    Having a tough and resourceful manager helps




  • kinabalu said:

    I can understand why people in Labour are concerned that they still haven't had a female leader, and it certainly isn't a good look, but that is not a reason to take a "any woman will do" approach. I am not a Labour supporter, but as a centrist I very much want Labour to be a credible alternative government, even if they have policies I don't like. While they remain an impotent protest group they do nothing to moderate the ever rightward lurching of the party that was formally known as conservative.

    Point taken. But to be clear on this gender thing. I'm not saying "any woman will do". That would be ridiculous. What I'm saying is that in this special case Female is a valid attribute along with others such as charisma, competence, intellect, sense of humour, integrity, policy stance. It just takes its place in the list of attributes which we are looking for. A list of 7 (inc Female) if we go with these for the sake of argument.

    So for example - and this is purely to illustrate the point because I know it will not work as scientifically as this and nor should it - we could score each of the above attributes on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means have none of it and 10 means have it in spades, and then the winner is the person with the highest aggregate score. Starmer can therefore still win despite scoring quite low on Female. And he WILL win if his lead on other attributes is sufficient. That seems the right balance to me. Get the best person for the job with due consideration given to the desirability of having our 1st woman leader.
    At the moment you probably just need to ask (which you seem to be): Who will best facilitate the recovery of the Labour Party with the broader electorate, and in particular the floating voter? Anecdotally I can tell you that as a one time Conservative who voted LD at the recent GE, I could see myself being moderately pleased with Starmer as PM, and might even vote Lab if the policies were not too anti-business. Could never see me making that leap with any of the others.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited January 2020

    It’s something Labourites talk about and worry about, but won’t vote about.

    The issue at the moment is they haven’t yet worked out a good enough narrative to explain electing Starmer. Once that’s established it will become mantra and the ‘problem’ will go away.

    You keep saying this but I am a Labourite and I'm telling you that I desperately want a woman.

    This does not mean I will discard all of my better judgement in the decision I must ultimately make but it does mean I am influenced by gender.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,993
    It will be interesting to see the Indyref2 opinions of the new Scottish Conservative MPs..........Oh. Wait.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,609
    kinabalu said:

    It’s something Labourites talk about and worry about, but won’t vote about.

    The issue at the moment is they haven’t yet worked out a good enough narrative to explain electing Starmer. Once that’s established it will become mantra and the ‘problem’ will go away.

    You keep saying this but I am a Labourite and I'm telling you that I desperately want a woman.

    This does not mean I will discard all of my better judgement in the decision I must ultimately make but it does mean I am influenced by gender.
    Everyone else has moved on to electing the best person for the job. Positive discrimination is so last century....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    EPG said:

    Am I very naive or is the LGB community disproportionately represented among MPs.

    In the worlds gayest parliament? Probably
    It could be gayer.

    No one has yet suggested it’s lit up in rainbow colours for pride yet, to my knowledge.
    I wasnt suggesting it was too many. Just that with the difficulties in estimating proportions of LGBT in the general population it's possible parliament's openly lgbt proportion is higher than the nation as a whole. It wouldn't matter if that is the case.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    kinabalu said:

    It’s something Labourites talk about and worry about, but won’t vote about.

    The issue at the moment is they haven’t yet worked out a good enough narrative to explain electing Starmer. Once that’s established it will become mantra and the ‘problem’ will go away.

    You keep saying this but I am a Labourite and I'm telling you that I desperately want a woman.
    Have you tried eHarmony?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,231
    edited January 2020

    At the moment you probably just need to ask (which you seem to be): Who will best facilitate the recovery of the Labour Party with the broader electorate, and in particular the floating voter? Anecdotally I can tell you that as a one time Conservative who voted LD at the recent GE, I could see myself being moderately pleased with Starmer as PM, and might even vote Lab if the policies were not too anti-business. Could never see me making that leap with any of the others.

    So that is genuinely of interest. I take very seriously the views of anybody who MIGHT vote Labour next time. People who never would, regardless, I tend to discount somewhat on this one. And as I say, I am now leaning slightly towards Starmer. Perhaps he is - quite literally - the only man for the job.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    Totally agree with this. Unitaries are the way to go.
    I discussed this with a friend of mine who was a county councillor some time ago, when I was still a conservative party activist. He told me the biggest block to this comes from the voluntary Conservative Party - basically there will be less councillor posts for activists if you cut district councils. When you think about it, it makes absolute logical sense to realign our local government. Most voters have no idea what the difference is, and why we have so many tiers.
    I can believe that is the problem. And with the age of austerity declared over doing it to save money wont convince Boris.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020

    kle4 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    eek said:

    One bit worth mentioning (as it may surprise people) are the MPs campaigning for their constituency /town to escape / secede from their current council.

    It's often the case that any town that isn't the county town in a council area to be given the short straw. The merger of County Durham into one authority has caused resentment everywhere outside Durham City itself.

    What's even funnier is that Durham City residents don't want to be associated with the rest of the county even though it's done well out of the deal.

    Everywhere should be unitary, the duplication of effort on websites/buildings and generally for two tier authorities is an expense (And carbon emissions) we can not afford in these straitened times.
    Where I am it should be North Nottinghamshire; Nottingham; South Nottinghamshire.
    Totally agree with this. Unitaries are the way to go.
    I discussed this with a friend of mine who was a county councillor some time ago, when I was still a conservative party activist. He told me the biggest block to this comes from the voluntary Conservative Party - basically there will be less councillor posts for activists if you cut district councils. When you think about it, it makes absolute logical sense to realign our local government. Most voters have no idea what the difference is, and why we have so many tiers.
    Not just that but if you cut district councils you also remove a whole layer of more locally connected government, planning in particular would be covered for the whole county rather than based on more specific needs of the local town and its district.

    In Epping for example, we would have a county council serving over a million people and a town council serving 11 000 people and nothing in between if Epping Forest District Council was scrapped
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,148
    edited January 2020
    Nigelb said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    That was not Bloomberg himself but his manager and I cannot see it applying if Sanders is the nominee as Bloomberg has called him 'a demagogue' and Sanders loathes Bloomberg too. I suspect Bloomberg will run as an Independent in that scenario

    And with you then apologizing if you're wrong on that, remember.
    Once HYUFD has an idea fixed in his head, it takes quite a lot of shifting (outside of a change of Tory party leader, when it's all up for grabs). You might call him a diehard...
    Bloomberg is not going to run as an independent, as he realises it would make a Trump victory more, not less likely.
    Bloomberg could still run if it looks like Sanders cannot beat Trump based on the polling after he is nominated
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    edited January 2020

    Forget Brexit, Forget Boris with a big majority.....much worse start to 2020, it looks like Mindhunters has been canned by Netflix.

    I didn`t like Mindhunters much - it meandered along pretty meaninglessly for me.

    Can I recommend Unbelieveable? Excellent and thought-provoking.

    Of course you will have already watched the superb Godless and all three Fargo series.
This discussion has been closed.