I'm sure the Conservatives would like us to be a party primarily representing the working class, but without allies the working class, now an ever-shrinking minority, will never win power. The working class/public servant/idealist/working parents/BAME coalition is potentially a winner on good days, but putting it back together is the challenge which the current contenders need to address.
Is quite surprising the number of Tories here who feel impelled to share their views on what Labour should do next. Or perhaps not.
The only advice I would be able to come up with is not to start from here...
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Did he win?
He did indeed. Turned over a 6000 majority.
So. Not all about the ground game then.
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
I wonder if door knocking isn’t far more effective outside of election periods.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
Logical fallacy though, innit? Something must be done. Brexit is something. Therefore we must do it.
We are poorer, less free, and massively internationally holed because of Brexit. And will remain so. Meanwhile Putin rubs his hands together in glee.
As for the deplorables, they might have faith in the Tories Against Thatcherism. I suspect the figures to whom they have handed this legendary control will be less against Thatcherism than the deplorables hope. And then where will their votes go? I sure hope there's a liberal, internationalist, compassionate, radical, business-friendly offer for them, because the alternative is likely to be very ugly indeed.
We are not poorer or less free ffs. Just repeating words over and over doesn't make the true.
Currently we have the freedom of movement (including to work, live and purchase property) in 28 nations. After January 2020 we will not have that freedom. That's what "less free" means. I appreciate that you think this might be worthwhile or compensated by other advantages. But that does not stop it being "less free".
I was struck by how little this is understood. @AndyJS thought that we would keep the right to live in the EU27 post-Brexit. I had to explain, that no, we wouldn't: we might have the option, but no longer the right.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Did he win?
He did indeed. Turned over a 6000 majority.
So. Not all about the ground game then.
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
I must admit when I saw the weather on the 12th I did a little research
There's a section on research which suggests a small effect - but given that most parliaments are decided on the 0-2% majorities, it does appear to make sense to try.
I'm sure the Conservatives would like us to be a party primarily representing the working class, but without allies the working class, now an ever-shrinking minority, will never win power. The working class/public servant/idealist/working parents/BAME coalition is potentially a winner on good days, but putting it back together is the challenge which the current contenders need to address.
Is quite surprising the number of Tories here who feel impelled to share their views on what Labour should do next. Or perhaps not.
The only advice I would be able to come up with is not to start from here...
A lot of us genuinely do want to see a functioning Labour Party that can hold the government effectively to account, and be ready to present an alternative at the point where - as all governments do - they eventually run out of steam.
I'm sure the Conservatives would like us to be a party primarily representing the working class, but without allies the working class, now an ever-shrinking minority, will never win power. The working class/public servant/idealist/working parents/BAME coalition is potentially a winner on good days, but putting it back together is the challenge which the current contenders need to address.
Is quite surprising the number of Tories here who feel impelled to share their views on what Labour should do next. Or perhaps not.
The only advice I would be able to come up with is not to start from here...
A lot of us genuinely do want to see a functioning Labour Party that can hold the government effectively to account, and be ready to present an alternative at the point where - as all governments do - they eventually run out of steam.
Some of us would have quite liked it if there was an alternative available in 2019!
I'm sure the Conservatives would like us to be a party primarily representing the working class, but without allies the working class, now an ever-shrinking minority, will never win power. The working class/public servant/idealist/working parents/BAME coalition is potentially a winner on good days, but putting it back together is the challenge which the current contenders need to address.
Working parents want good public services, but they also believe in a free enterprise dynamic economy and to leave their children better off than they are. Social democracy can square that circle, but socialism cannot. Labour needs to ditch the hard leftism and embrace modern European social democracy. A good way of showing you are committed to both social rights and market economy is to embrace Rejoin.
I'm sure the Conservatives would like us to be a party primarily representing the working class, but without allies the working class, now an ever-shrinking minority, will never win power. The working class/public servant/idealist/working parents/BAME coalition is potentially a winner on good days, but putting it back together is the challenge which the current contenders need to address.
Pretty urgently, at the 2019 general election the Tories led Labour by even more amongst working class voters than amongst middle class voters, 48% to 33%, compared to 43% to 38%
That is sadly wishful thinking. After the Belfast Agreement NI was in a position of not being (or being less) broken. Now the whole issue is front and centre.
Should Northern Ireland have been the tail that wagged the Brexit dog? Not sure but it has become the elephant in the room.
I have other analogies on request.
I will absolutely own up to it being a wish. But it is based on the facts as I see them. Pure sectarian demographics would have meant ever increasing pressure to join the South. After Brexit, Northern Ireland will be a key borderland between the EU and the UK, which I would hope presents significant commercial opportunities to the province. It could serve a purpose, possibly a vital purpose, for the South too. And it coincides with what seems to be a shift away from sectarian politics. Skyscraper Belfast. Why not? (Apologies if there are already skyscrapers, not been there, hopefully going next year).
Yes I agree if you take out the politics (!!!) there is a golden opportunity for NI. Trouble is a significant number of people want a unified Ireland and will go to great lengths to try to achieve it while a significant number of people wants NI to remain part of the UK.
This is far more unsquareable without the veil of the GFA to allow both sides to believe they are getting what they want.
This will happen if the alliance surge continues.
On the subject of Northern Ireland - a lot of people might think that creating circumstances where over time the North might gradually move away from being economically tied to the U.K. and far more aligned is the best outcome, creating an economic and not just historic and geographic argument for a United Ireland. Because at the end of the day how strong is the rUK attachment to the GB Union? There is resistance to the idea of a United ireland against the will of the North, and obviously the idea of it happening as a result of armed insurrection is an anathema, but beyond that? I think many would welcome it. Much more so than an independent Scotland.
Given only 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties at the general election but 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties, there is clearly only a Unionist majority in Scotland now.
The Boris Deal is this the best way to keep Northern Ireland in the UK for the foreseeable future by avoiding the hard border with the Republic of Ireland which would see the now non Unionist majority in the province push the case for Irish unity further
Although the Scottish unionist majority has decreased dramatically.
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
I wonder if door knocking isn’t far more effective outside of election periods.
The traditional primary purpose of canvassing is to identify where your voters are (aka "collecting Voting Intentions" or VIs), so you can run efficient Get Out The Postal Vote operations in the final weeks of the campaign and an efficient Get Out The Vote operation on polling day. When you're sending volunteers out to knock on doors and ask people to vote, you want to be as targeted as possible to avoid accidentally getting out votes for your opponents!
Modern canvassing is more complicated and includes obtaining contact information (email addresses, mobile and landline numbers), obtaining more nuanced voting intentions (determining whether a Probable Labour voter is wavering BXP, Conservative or Lib Dem, for example) and occasionally having Persuasion conversations with voters. The majority of the time, volunteers will be told not to get bogged down in conversation, but using broad demographic assumptions based on age, local property value, regional factors etc, it's possible to target voters who are likely to be wavering and more likely to listen to a Persuasion conversation using certain arguments. For example, our Probable Labour voter from earlier who is wavering towards the Brexit Party might be persuaded to vote Conservative if you have a conversation with them about the local Conservative candidate's strong Leave credentials.
Because this election was a realignment election where some parts of the country saw massive shifts in voting behaviour, previously gathered VIs weren't as valuable as in previous elections and strong ground game, especially in the north of England, did make a big difference in marginal seats. Being able to identify where your votes are and efficiently reach, talk to and persuade potential new voters gives you a huge advantage and acts as a force multiplier. If you live in a key marginal and heard very little from one of the major parties other than the free Royal Mail election address, it's likely that you were believed to be very unlikely to support that party for some reason and so the party will keep its contact with you to an absolute minimum to avoid wasting resources or making you more determined to vote against them.
On the subject of Northern Ireland - a lot of people might think that creating circumstances where over time the North might gradually move away from being economically tied to the U.K. and far more aligned is the best outcome, creating an economic and not just historic and geographic argument for a United Ireland. Because at the end of the day how strong is the rUK attachment to the GB Union? There is resistance to the idea of a United ireland against the will of the North, and obviously the idea of it happening as a result of armed insurrection is an anathema, but beyond that? I think many would welcome it. Much more so than an independent Scotland.
Given only 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties at the general election but 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties, there is clearly only a Unionist majority in Scotland now.
The Boris Deal is this the best way to keep Northern Ireland in the UK for the foreseeable future by avoiding the hard border with the Republic of Ireland which would see the now non Unionist majority in the province push the case for Irish unity further
Although the Scottish unionist majority has decreased dramatically.
No it hasn't, No got 55% in 2014 and Unionist parties got 54% just over a week ago, despite Brexit
On the subject of Northern Ireland - a lot of people might think that creating circumstances where over time the North might gradually move away from being economically tied to the U.K. and far more aligned is the best outcome, creating an economic and not just historic and geographic argument for a United Ireland. Because at the end of the day how strong is the rUK attachment to the GB Union? There is resistance to the idea of a United ireland against the will of the North, and obviously the idea of it happening as a result of armed insurrection is an anathema, but beyond that? I think many would welcome it. Much more so than an independent Scotland.
Given only 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties at the general election but 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties, there is clearly only a Unionist majority in Scotland now.
The Boris Deal is this the best way to keep Northern Ireland in the UK for the foreseeable future by avoiding the hard border with the Republic of Ireland which would see the now non Unionist majority in the province push the case for Irish unity further
Although the Scottish unionist majority has decreased dramatically.
No it hasn't, No got 55% in 2014 and Unionist parties got 54% just over a week ago, despite Brexit
On the subject of Northern Ireland - a lot of people might think that creating circumstances where over time the North might gradually move away from being economically tied to the U.K. and far more aligned is the best outcome, creating an economic and not just historic and geographic argument for a United Ireland. Because at the end of the day how strong is the rUK attachment to the GB Union? There is resistance to the idea of a United ireland against the will of the North, and obviously the idea of it happening as a result of armed insurrection is an anathema, but beyond that? I think many would welcome it. Much more so than an independent Scotland.
Given only 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties at the general election but 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties, there is clearly only a Unionist majority in Scotland now.
The Boris Deal is this the best way to keep Northern Ireland in the UK for the foreseeable future by avoiding the hard border with the Republic of Ireland which would see the now non Unionist majority in the province push the case for Irish unity further
Although the Scottish unionist majority has decreased dramatically.
No it hasn't, No got 55% in 2014 and Unionist parties got 54% just over a week ago, despite Brexit
Compared to a few decades ago.
The rise of the SNP and indyref 1 mainly came about through devolution leading to the SNP Holyrood majority in 2011, that only occurred 20 years ago, had devolution occurred earlier the SNP rise may have come earlier
The fact that every potential Labour leadership candidate is very unpopular creates an opening for a surprise winner.
Indeed but I can't see it personally.
The problem is that the new ballot requirements will make it a very small number of candidates on the ballot paper.
If Margaret Hodge hadn't made a public spectacle during 2019 she would have been ideal to lead Labour out of it's working class crisis.
Ummmm...a woman who has never satisfactorily explained her role in the Islington paedophile crisis* and spent most of her time as Children’s Minister smearing its victims would make an ideal leader? Not to mention one who is a multi-millionaire and who continues to have a major interest in a steel company? Plus one who is 75 years old?
I have to say I think that is a very optimistic assessment of her capabilities...
*TBF, the same could be and frequently was said of Corbyn, and is rumoured to apply to at least one other current Shadow Cabinet figure.
It is also worth remembering at this point that she was such a dedicated servant to her constituents that she buggered off to Italy for a romantic 30th birthday getaway with her boyfriend, while Parliament was having a knife-edge vote on Universal Credit.
Like most people with jobs, I worked through my thirtieth birthday. I thought my students were more important than me having a party, which I could have at any time.
As I say, unfit to be an MP. Awful sense of entitlement and zero humility or courage.
The fact that every potential Labour leadership candidate is very unpopular creates an opening for a surprise winner.
Indeed but I can't see it personally.
The problem is that the new ballot requirements will make it a very small number of candidates on the ballot paper.
If Margaret Hodge hadn't made a public spectacle during 2019 she would have been ideal to lead Labour out of it's working class crisis.
Ummmm...a woman who has never satisfactorily explained her role in the Islington paedophile crisis* and spent most of her time as Children’s Minister smearing its victims would make an ideal leader? Not to mention one who is a multi-millionaire and who continues to have a major interest in a steel company? Plus one who is 75 years old?
I have to say I think that is a very optimistic assessment of her capabilities...
*TBF, the same could be and frequently was said of Corbyn, and is rumoured to apply to at least one other current Shadow Cabinet figure.
It is also worth remembering at this point that she was such a dedicated servant to her constituents that she buggered off to Italy for a romantic 30th birthday getaway with her boyfriend, while Parliament was having a knife-edge vote on Universal Credit.
Like most people with jobs, I worked through my thirtieth birthday. I thought my students were more important than me having a party, which I could have at any time.
As I say, unfit to be an MP. Awful sense of entitlement and zero humility or courage.
Oh do stop it.
She has a life. It is allowed.
You misunderstand absolutely. If it were critical to her, she would have made personal sacrifices. It is a function of her age and life experiences that it was all about her needs. Or perhaps I’m a professional.
You misunderstand absolutely. If it were critical to her, she would have made personal sacrifices. It is a function of her age and life experiences that it was all about her needs. Or perhaps I’m a professional.
I'll tell what I understand -
If you have a life, you're "inauthentic" or a "hypocrite" or a "champagne socialist".
If you don't, you're "po-faced" or an "obsessive" or "ivory tower".
Sick of hearing this tedious drivel. It's utter bollox.
The only one that I can see that has the fortitude to take on the hard left is Thornberry. Her on the rampage against momentum shouting you are all stupid and posting acidic tweets of SJW people and their commie flags would be a sight to see. Then as a last resort she can fall on the tried and tested method of lawfare.
Poor kids will lose the freedom to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, and British tradesmen to work in Eastern Europe
Sarcasm aside, poor kids will not lose the right to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, (although they don't have the option because they don't have the money to pay for it nor a gap year to spend it in), since that's covered by tourism.
Freedom is made up of rights and options. I have the right to live in orbit, since no law forbids me. But I do not have the option because I do not have a spaceship. If you pass a law preventing me from living in orbit, then I will have less freedom, despite there being no material change in my circumstances.
Poor kids will lose the freedom to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, and British tradesmen to work in Eastern Europe
Sarcasm aside, poor kids will not lose the right to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, (although they don't have the option because they don't have the money to pay for it nor a gap year to spend it in), since that's covered by tourism.
Freedom is made up of rights and options. I have the right to live in orbit, since no law forbids me. But I do not have the option because I do not have a spaceship. If you pass a law preventing me from living in orbit, then I will have less freedom, despite there being no material change in my circumstances.
You do not have the right to just live anywhere in the EU unless you are a student or a worker. You have to meet the individual country requirements, which are usually a mixture of have enough money to not be a burden on the state and have health cover.
Poor kids will lose the freedom to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, and British tradesmen to work in Eastern Europe
Sarcasm aside, poor kids will not lose the right to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, (although they don't have the option because they don't have the money to pay for it nor a gap year to spend it in), since that's covered by tourism.
Freedom is made up of rights and options. I have the right to live in orbit, since no law forbids me. But I do not have the option because I do not have a spaceship. If you pass a law preventing me from living in orbit, then I will have less freedom, despite there being no material change in my circumstances.
You do not have the right to just live anywhere in the EU unless you are a student or a worker. You have to meet the individual country requirements, which are usually a mixture of have enough money to not be a burden on the state and have health cover.
That's more the option, not the right: once the requirements are met, you don't have to ask permission, and if permission is denied you but not another EU citizen, then you have grounds to complain. Post Brexit, if permission is denied you, you have no grounds to complain. Rights, options: you need both to be free (and yes, other stuff as well ... )
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
I wonder if door knocking isn’t far more effective outside of election periods.
My comment.
No-one’s knocked on our door for ages. I think the last one was UKIP in 2015. Sent way with flea in ear. It’s not a marginal seat though.
Poor kids will lose the freedom to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, and British tradesmen to work in Eastern Europe
Sarcasm aside, poor kids will not lose the right to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, (although they don't have the option because they don't have the money to pay for it nor a gap year to spend it in), since that's covered by tourism.
Freedom is made up of rights and options. I have the right to live in orbit, since no law forbids me. But I do not have the option because I do not have a spaceship. If you pass a law preventing me from living in orbit, then I will have less freedom, despite there being no material change in my circumstances.
You do not have the right to just live anywhere in the EU unless you are a student or a worker. You have to meet the individual country requirements, which are usually a mixture of have enough money to not be a burden on the state and have health cover.
That's more the option, not the right: once the requirements are met, you don't have to ask permission, and if permission is denied you but not another EU citizen, then you have grounds to complain. Post Brexit, if permission is denied you, you have no grounds to complain. Rights, options: you need both to be free (and yes, other stuff as well ... )
Appropos of nothing, I was out cycling the other day and passed a road in a nearby town called Islington, which I had never noticed, which abutted another road called 'Palmer Road'. I'm takeing this is a sign of who should take over Corbyn's seat should the unlikely happen and he decides to bow out of Westminster altogether.
(wistful look!)
Palmer 4Leader !
If our own Nick stood I believe he would be in the upper quartile of quality candidates. But I suppose if anyone on PB stood they would likewise tower above most of the candidates in the frame. Even me.
Lets not forget Nick Palmer is acstrong supporter of Corbyn before you start annointing him!!
No-one’s knocked on our door for ages. I think the last one was UKIP in 2015. Sent way with flea in ear.
It’s not a marginal seat though.
Door-knocking was very important in Totnes, where you had a unknown candidate up against a well-known figure, chosen as the Conservative candidate by a costituency-wide primary vote open to all, who may have had a very strong personal vote. Door-knocking allowed us to ascertain that actually, she was widely reviled for her multiple party swaps without resigning and seeking backing in a by-election. Once it was quite clear our new guy would win comfortably, it was possible to send resources elsewhere.
Why the LibDems continued to pour money into defending Totnes was a mystery. Much has been made of the failings of the Labour campaign, but serious questions remain about the LibDem's ground game in this election, from those dodgy "polling expert" leaflets to resource priorities.
Comments
The only advice I would be able to come up with is not to start from here...
I was struck by how little this is understood. @AndyJS thought that we would keep the right to live in the EU27 post-Brexit. I had to explain, that no, we wouldn't: we might have the option, but no longer the right.
I must admit when I saw the weather on the 12th I did a little research
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Get_out_the_vote
There's a section on research which suggests a small effect - but given that most parliaments are decided on the 0-2% majorities, it does appear to make sense to try.
Apparently public shame would work best by far.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1206883406040174593?s=20
It's like the voters there were looking for an excuse to go wholesale from Labour to Tory.
I'm sure @Pulpstar has already commented on this.
Although the Scottish unionist majority has decreased dramatically.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
I wonder if door knocking isn’t far more effective outside of election periods.
The traditional primary purpose of canvassing is to identify where your voters are (aka "collecting Voting Intentions" or VIs), so you can run efficient Get Out The Postal Vote operations in the final weeks of the campaign and an efficient Get Out The Vote operation on polling day. When you're sending volunteers out to knock on doors and ask people to vote, you want to be as targeted as possible to avoid accidentally getting out votes for your opponents!
Modern canvassing is more complicated and includes obtaining contact information (email addresses, mobile and landline numbers), obtaining more nuanced voting intentions (determining whether a Probable Labour voter is wavering BXP, Conservative or Lib Dem, for example) and occasionally having Persuasion conversations with voters. The majority of the time, volunteers will be told not to get bogged down in conversation, but using broad demographic assumptions based on age, local property value, regional factors etc, it's possible to target voters who are likely to be wavering and more likely to listen to a Persuasion conversation using certain arguments. For example, our Probable Labour voter from earlier who is wavering towards the Brexit Party might be persuaded to vote Conservative if you have a conversation with them about the local Conservative candidate's strong Leave credentials.
Because this election was a realignment election where some parts of the country saw massive shifts in voting behaviour, previously gathered VIs weren't as valuable as in previous elections and strong ground game, especially in the north of England, did make a big difference in marginal seats. Being able to identify where your votes are and efficiently reach, talk to and persuade potential new voters gives you a huge advantage and acts as a force multiplier. If you live in a key marginal and heard very little from one of the major parties other than the free Royal Mail election address, it's likely that you were believed to be very unlikely to support that party for some reason and so the party will keep its contact with you to an absolute minimum to avoid wasting resources or making you more determined to vote against them.
Karloff?
If Margaret Hodge hadn't made a public spectacle during 2019 she would have been ideal to lead Labour out of it's working class crisis.
I have to say I think that is a very optimistic assessment of her capabilities...
*TBF, the same could be and frequently was said of Corbyn, and is rumoured to apply to at least one other current Shadow Cabinet figure.
She has a life. It is allowed.
Theoretically he ticks all boxes.
If you have a life, you're "inauthentic" or a "hypocrite" or a "champagne socialist".
If you don't, you're "po-faced" or an "obsessive" or "ivory tower".
Sick of hearing this tedious drivel. It's utter bollox.
Go Thorns!
Freedom is made up of rights and options. I have the right to live in orbit, since no law forbids me. But I do not have the option because I do not have a spaceship. If you pass a law preventing me from living in orbit, then I will have less freedom, despite there being no material change in my circumstances.
I wonder if door knocking isn’t far more effective outside of election periods.
My comment.
No-one’s knocked on our door for ages. I think the last one was UKIP in 2015. Sent way with flea in ear.
It’s not a marginal seat though.
Heck of a lot of permission asking and form filling and legal documentary proof required if you want to live in Spain with no job or studies.
Why the LibDems continued to pour money into defending Totnes was a mystery. Much has been made of the failings of the Labour campaign, but serious questions remain about the LibDem's ground game in this election, from those dodgy "polling expert" leaflets to resource priorities.