Labour's strongest card is one they don't realise yet that they are holding.
I suspect that Brexit will be, if not a disaster then a long term dip. The markets are wising up to this and since the election have wobbled. The situation won't pick up for at least 5 years, probably 10 and may never recover.
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
At some point during the next decade a half-decent Labour leader won't have to do very much to win power as long as they're not a terrorist-stained malfunctioning Marxist.
I suspect Johnson will want to mitigate his disaster, despite his current rhetoric. Nevertheless the Johnson regime is shaping up to be highly despotic and he doesn't normally face up to his responsibilities, so who knows?
of course.. it might be the re-making of the UK... who kniows
You mean an unmitigated Brexit disaster will be the remaking of the UK? Hard to see that, but, hey. As I say, I suspect Johnson is too much in love with his own premiership not to mitigate. Revolutions have a habit of eating their own children.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
Labour's strongest card is one they don't realise yet that they are holding.
I suspect that Brexit will be, if not a disaster then a long term dip. The markets are wising up to this and since the election have wobbled. The situation won't pick up for at least 5 years, probably 10 and may never recover.
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
At some point during the next decade a half-decent Labour leader won't have to do very much to win power as long as they're not a terrorist-stained malfunctioning Marxist.
What in the name of all that is brown and smelly are you talking about? Wobbled?!?! My share portfolio of small and mid caps has made thousands since the election. Brexit does create headwinds for some firms (which is why I voted remain) but there's no doubt there will be huge opportunities for others. Just thank goodness Labour's hard left manifesto was resoundingly rejected, that would have led to Armageddon.
Vital to learn the lessons of Labour’s #GE2019 defeat. However, the answers will not be found at the door of New Labour’s architects. Blair’s legacy still hangs around this party like a millstone, especially in the North East. I heard it time & time again:
HILARIOUS!
LOL! Blair's own Sedgefield seat just turned blue for the first time in living memory, that's how bad a defeat you went down to, Laura.
I think you're kind of missing the point. For a LOT of Labour people, Blair wasn't really Labour. Mandeleson's comment that he doesn't care if people get filthy rich would have been the final straw were it not for the trump card of all, the illegal Iraq War.
Blair is poison to most on the left. It doesn't matter if he 'won.' So did Thatcher. Doesn't mean she had social democratic or socialist principles.
All true, but Blair actually won elections and got to implement his manifesto, as opposed to every other Labour leader of the past 40 years, all of whom lost elections and got to watch the Conservatives in power.
So, do Labour want to win elections? Because if so, they'll need to find someone like Tony Blair.
Clement Attlee won a landslide for Labour in 1945 and other Labour leaders have managed to combine sensible policies with a genuine belief in socialist principles.
I don't think many Labour people would be content to win at any cost. They've been there.
No Labour leader since WW2 has got more than 6 consecutive years in power, it took Blair to get Labour over a decade in office as New Labour
Tony Blair's catastrophic mistake was Iraq. It upset a lot of people who would otherwise have been tolerant of him, and it wasn't just the immediate action; it was what ensued.
This.
OK. Fair enough. What I don’t understand is the corollary that everything he did and stood for pre-Iraq needs to be reviled. Because believe me if Labour are to get to power again, it is going to need a leader who understands how it was that Blair won in 1997.
I think Blair 's behaviour since he left office has been absolutely despicable -- basically, he has presided over asset-stripping poor countries. This has also contributed to the massive demolition of his reputation.
Blair has trashed himself and whatever good his Government has done. No-one listens to him. If I ever found myself in agreement with Blair, I'd worry.
I also think the achievements of Blair's government are minuscule, given the majorities he had and the authority he wielded. To whom much is given, from him much is expected.
You suggest he presided over "a massive cultural shift which reversed the homophobia of the Major regime." I disagree -- that cultural shift happened worldwide. This is a huge pointer that Blair had little to do with it. Even so, it is indeed astonishing how quickly this has been achieved -- Ireland has same sex marriage (& even Northern Ireland from 2020) -- something that would have been absolutely inconceivable in 1997.
The only point I will grant you from your original list is the minimum wage. The Blair Government can rightfully claim credit for that, and it was indeed vigorously opposed by the Tories.
I'll tell you what I think New Labour's best achievement was (okay, there were probably better ones, but it's one I really like): the ban on smoking in public places.
I agree that is a good one.
Probably didn't two 100 plus majorities to get that done, though!
Tony Blair's catastrophic mistake was Iraq. It upset a lot of people who would otherwise have been tolerant of him, and it wasn't just the immediate action; it was what ensued.
This.
OK. Fair enough. What I don’t understand is the corollary that everything he did and stood for pre-Iraq needs to be reviled. Because believe me if Labour are to get to power again, it is going to need a leader who understands how it was that Blair won in 1997.
I think Blair 's behaviour since he left office has been absolutely despicable -- basically, he has presided over asset-stripping poor countries. This has also contributed to the massive demolition of his reputation.
Blair has trashed himself and whatever good his Government has done. No-one listens to him. If I ever found myself in agreement with Blair, I'd worry.
I also think the achievements of Blair's government are minuscule, given the majorities he had and the authority he wielded. To whom much is given, from him much is expected.
You suggest he presided over "a massive cultural shift which reversed the homophobia of the Major regime." I disagree -- that cultural shift happened worldwide. This is a huge pointer that Blair had little to do with it. Even so, it is indeed astonishing how quickly this has been achieved -- Ireland has same sex marriage (& even Northern Ireland from 2020) -- something that would have been absolutely inconceivable in 1997.
The only point I will grant you from your original list is the minimum wage. The Blair Government can rightfully claim credit for that, and it was indeed vigorously opposed by the Tories.
Looking more than ever as if he is actually mummified, and has risen from some ancient, richly decorated tomb, the Blair creature appears among us.
Once again he is here to tell us that in fact he knows better than everyone, despite having made, in Iraq, the worst single mistake in foreign policy of the past half-century.
Why do people still deal kindly with this person, who veers between being a vague, rambling nonentity and a raging warmonger, when not surrendering to terrorist murderers on shameful terms?
Generally he returns among us to drivel about the European issue, forgetting that he longed for this country to join the euro, a policy almost every breathing human now realises would have been a disaster.
But this time he has reappeared to gloat over Jeremy Corbyn’s failure and claim that Mr Corbyn’s revolutionary programme and Marxist past stopped him winning the Election.
This is very odd. We now know from his own lips, though 99 per cent of the British media have never reported it, that Mr Blair was himself once a Trotskyist.
He has never revealed which organisation he joined, though a close friend of his belonged to the International Marxist Group, which called for ‘Victory to the IRA’ and urged its student members to infiltrate and take over the moribund Labour Party in the 1970s, when no normal person under the age of 50 would have joined it.
An astonishing number of Mr Blair’s Cabinet were also ‘former’ Marxists – and these are just the ones we know about.
And, as it happens, Mr Blair was in a position to give ‘Victory to the IRA’ in his surrender to them in 1998 – the fact that it was a surrender is shown by the continued legal pursuit of British soldiers accused of crimes during the Troubles, and the effective mass pardon given to IRA killers, though people still refuse to see it.
As for Mr Blair’s other policies – rapid integration in the EU, participation in mad foreign wars, sale of our gold reserves just before the price shot up, a gigantic splurge in welfare and NHS spending way beyond our means, fanatical pursuit of political correctness – they are a mixture of zealotry and stupidity, slightly different from Mr Corbyn’s, but not in fact that different.
I just wish all those who managed to see the obvious Corbyn threat will one day understand the damage they allowed Mr Blair to do by praising him as the ‘moderate’ he never was.“
Tony Blair's catastrophic mistake was Iraq. It upset a lot of people who would otherwise have been tolerant of him, and it wasn't just the immediate action; it was what ensued.
This.
OK. Fair enough. What I don’t understand is the corollary that everything he did and stood for pre-Iraq needs to be reviled. Because believe me if Labour are to get to power again, it is going to need a leader who understands how it was that Blair won in 1997.
I think Blair 's behaviour since he left office has been absolutely despicable -- basically, he has presided over asset-stripping poor countries. This has also contributed to the massive demolition of his reputation.
Blair has trashed himself and whatever good his Government has done. No-one listens to him. If I ever found myself in agreement with Blair, I'd worry.
I also think the achievements of Blair's government are minuscule, given the majorities he had and the authority he wielded. To whom much is given, from him much is expected.
You suggest he presided over "a massive cultural shift which reversed the homophobia of the Major regime." I disagree -- that cultural shift happened worldwide. This is a huge pointer that Blair had little to do with it. Even so, it is indeed astonishing how quickly this has been achieved -- Ireland has same sex marriage (& even Northern Ireland from 2020) -- something that would have been absolutely inconceivable in 1997.
The only point I will grant you from your original list is the minimum wage. The Blair Government can rightfully claim credit for that, and it was indeed vigorously opposed by the Tories.
Things happen gradually then all at once.
“There are decades where nothing happens and there are weeks where decades happen,” as the greatest visionary of the 20th C. (Father Lenin) taught us.
I`m just back from spending my winnings in Tignes/Val d`isere. I`ve been keeping my eye on PB posts while away.
Regarding the chatter about next Lab leader, I still can`t see past RLB due to likely membership/union support. She will likely be Corbyn`s anointed one.
Although Starmer just heads the betting, I think that if it came down to a Starmer/RLB fight, RLB backers will play the ovaries trump card and sufficient Starmer supporters may end up backing her because they feel they should have a female leader.
Consequently I think her current price is on the high side, though I`m not backing her at 2/1 as I`m already on her at much longer odds.
So everything everybody hears on the doorstep seems to confirm their existing priors. Is everybody full of shit about what they're hearing or are the voters trying to be friendly and reflecting their opinions back at them?
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
True - providing that Johnson doesn't make the final error of delivering hard Brexit. Here and now people in the former Red Wall are buzzing about life. They took back control voting leave, and then took back control voting Tory. As long as the Tories don't bring the roof caving in on their heads, these people are likely to continue to feel warm towards the Tories for a long time.
Which is why despite all the tough talk Johnson is not taking us to No Deal departure at the end of next year. Johnson is many things but he is no fool. His government knows in detail what No Deal will do to these voters...
So everything everybody hears on the doorstep seems to confirm their existing priors. Is everybody full of shit about what they're hearing or are the voters trying to be friendly and reflecting their opinions back at them?
Labour's strongest card is one they don't realise yet that they are holding.
I suspect that Brexit will be, if not a disaster then a long term dip. The markets are wising up to this and since the election have wobbled. The situation won't pick up for at least 5 years, probably 10 and may never recover.
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
At some point during the next decade a half-decent Labour leader won't have to do very much to win power as long as they're not a terrorist-stained malfunctioning Marxist.
I suspect Johnson will want to mitigate his disaster, despite his current rhetoric. Nevertheless the Johnson regime is shaping up to be highly despotic and he doesn't normally face up to his responsibilities, so who knows?
of course.. it might be the re-making of the UK... who kniows
You mean an unmitigated Brexit disaster will be the remaking of the UK? Hard to see that, but, hey. As I say, I suspect Johnson is too much in love with his own premiership not to mitigate. Revolutions have a habit of eating their own children.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
An elite has manipulated gullible people into supporting something that will damage their lives, in order to benefit the elite?
So everything everybody hears on the doorstep seems to confirm their existing priors. Is everybody full of shit about what they're hearing or are the voters trying to be friendly and reflecting their opinions back at them?
Tony Blair's catastrophic mistake was Iraq. It upset a lot of people who would otherwise have been tolerant of him, and it wasn't just the immediate action; it was what ensued.
This.
OK. Fair enough. What I don’t understand is the corollary that everything he did and stood for pre-Iraq needs to be reviled. Because believe me if Labour are to get to power again, it is going to need a leader who understands how it was that Blair won in 1997.
Well exactly. People arent generally saying do the same things as Blair, but they need to lead like him.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
True - providing that Johnson doesn't make the final error of delivering hard Brexit. Here and now people in the former Red Wall are buzzing about life. They took back control voting leave, and then took back control voting Tory. As long as the Tories don't bring the roof caving in on their heads, these people are likely to continue to feel warm towards the Tories for a long time.
Which is why despite all the tough talk Johnson is not taking us to No Deal departure at the end of next year. Johnson is many things but he is no fool. His government knows in detail what No Deal will do to these voters...
Which means signing up to the Level Playing Field and a raft of other do-as-the-EU-tells-you alignment. I expect Johnson to do that ultimately, but it's not at all certain. This is an interesting article, not least for its suggestion that Johnson may actually be in possession of a principle. He really despises regulation, which is why he goes on so much about straight bananas and other largely invented absurdities. He doesn't realise enforced regulatory obligation removes trade barriers, border controls etc, and here it will be on the EU's terms.
Still, mitigated disaster must be better than an unmitigated one.
So everything everybody hears on the doorstep seems to confirm their existing priors. Is everybody full of shit about what they're hearing or are the voters trying to be friendly and reflecting their opinions back at them?
That is sadly wishful thinking. After the Belfast Agreement NI was in a position of not being (or being less) broken. Now the whole issue is front and centre.
Should Northern Ireland have been the tail that wagged the Brexit dog? Not sure but it has become the elephant in the room.
I have other analogies on request.
I will absolutely own up to it being a wish. But it is based on the facts as I see them. Pure sectarian demographics would have meant ever increasing pressure to join the South. After Brexit, Northern Ireland will be a key borderland between the EU and the UK, which I would hope presents significant commercial opportunities to the province. It could serve a purpose, possibly a vital purpose, for the South too. And it coincides with what seems to be a shift away from sectarian politics. Skyscraper Belfast. Why not? (Apologies if there are already skyscrapers, not been there, hopefully going next year).
Labour's strongest card is one they don't realise yet that they are holding.
I suspect that Brexit will be, if not a disaster then a long term dip. The markets are wising up to this and since the election have wobbled. The situation won't pick up for at least 5 years, probably 10 and may never recover.
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
At some point during the next decade a half-decent Labour leader won't have to do very much to win power as long as they're not a terrorist-stained malfunctioning Marxist.
I suspect Johnson will want to mitigate his disaster, despite his current rhetoric. Nevertheless the Johnson regime is shaping up to be highly despotic and he doesn't normally face up to his responsibilities, so who knows?
of course.. it might be the re-making of the UK... who kniows
You mean an unmitigated Brexit disaster will be the remaking of the UK? Hard to see that, but, hey. As I say, I suspect Johnson is too much in love with his own premiership not to mitigate. Revolutions have a habit of eating their own children.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
An elite has manipulated gullible people into supporting something that will damage their lives, in order to benefit the elite?
Not even novel, let alone a triumph.
Run me by the "in order to benefit the elite" bit again.....
Looking more than ever as if he is actually mummified, and has risen from some ancient, richly decorated tomb, the Blair creature appears among us.
Once again he is here to tell us that in fact he knows better than everyone, despite having made, in Iraq, the worst single mistake in foreign policy of the past half-century.
Why do people still deal kindly with this person, who veers between being a vague, rambling nonentity and a raging warmonger, when not surrendering to terrorist murderers on shameful terms?
Generally he returns among us to drivel about the European issue, forgetting that he longed for this country to join the euro, a policy almost every breathing human now realises would have been a disaster.
But this time he has reappeared to gloat over Jeremy Corbyn’s failure and claim that Mr Corbyn’s revolutionary programme and Marxist past stopped him winning the Election.
This is very odd. We now know from his own lips, though 99 per cent of the British media have never reported it, that Mr Blair was himself once a Trotskyist.
He has never revealed which organisation he joined, though a close friend of his belonged to the International Marxist Group, which called for ‘Victory to the IRA’ and urged its student members to infiltrate and take over the moribund Labour Party in the 1970s, when no normal person under the age of 50 would have joined it.
An astonishing number of Mr Blair’s Cabinet were also ‘former’ Marxists – and these are just the ones we know about.
And, as it happens, Mr Blair was in a position to give ‘Victory to the IRA’ in his surrender to them in 1998 – the fact that it was a surrender is shown by the continued legal pursuit of British soldiers accused of crimes during the Troubles, and the effective mass pardon given to IRA killers, though people still refuse to see it.
As for Mr Blair’s other policies – rapid integration in the EU, participation in mad foreign wars, sale of our gold reserves just before the price shot up, a gigantic splurge in welfare and NHS spending way beyond our means, fanatical pursuit of political correctness – they are a mixture of zealotry and stupidity, slightly different from Mr Corbyn’s, but not in fact that different.
I just wish all those who managed to see the obvious Corbyn threat will one day understand the damage they allowed Mr Blair to do by praising him as the ‘moderate’ he never was.“
Labour's strongest card is one they don't realise yet that they are holding.
I suspect that Brexit will be, if not a disaster then a long term dip. The markets are wising up to this and since the election have wobbled. The situation won't pick up for at least 5 years, probably 10 and may never recover.
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
At some point during the next decade a half-decent Labour leader won't have to do very much to win power as long as they're not a terrorist-stained malfunctioning Marxist.
I suspect Johnson will want to mitigate his disaster, despite his current rhetoric. Nevertheless the Johnson regime is shaping up to be highly despotic and he doesn't normally face up to his responsibilities, so who knows?
of course.. it might be the re-making of the UK... who kniows
You mean an unmitigated Brexit disaster will be the remaking of the UK? Hard to see that, but, hey. As I say, I suspect Johnson is too much in love with his own premiership not to mitigate. Revolutions have a habit of eating their own children.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
An elite has manipulated gullible people into supporting something that will damage their lives, in order to benefit the elite?
Not even novel, let alone a triumph.
Run me by the "in order to benefit the elite" bit again.....
It's some mad idea that a few trillionaire hedge-funders will benefit from Brexity currency volatility, and a few squillionaire factory owners will gain from deregulated Brexity chicken-n-chlorine.
Labour's strongest card is one they don't realise yet that they are holding.
I suspect that Brexit will be, if not a disaster then a long term dip. The markets are wising up to this and since the election have wobbled. The situation won't pick up for at least 5 years, probably 10 and may never recover.
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
At some point during the next decade a half-decent Labour leader won't have to do very much to win power as long as they're not a terrorist-stained malfunctioning Marxist.
I suspect Johnson will want to mitigate his disaster, despite his current rhetoric. Nevertheless the Johnson regime is shaping up to be highly despotic and he doesn't normally face up to his responsibilities, so who knows?
of course.. it might be the re-making of the UK... who kniows
You mean an unmitigated Brexit disaster will be the remaking of the UK? Hard to see that, but, hey. As I say, I suspect Johnson is too much in love with his own premiership not to mitigate. Revolutions have a habit of eating their own children.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
An elite has manipulated gullible people into supporting something that will damage their lives, in order to benefit the elite?
Not even novel, let alone a triumph.
Run me by the "in order to benefit the elite" bit again.....
It's just chaff. Thrown up in the air as a distraction from the opposing argument (which actually does have its basis in fact). See also complaints about 'right wing bias' at the Beeb.
Labour's strongest card is one they don't realise yet that they are holding.
I suspect that Brexit will be, if not a disaster then a long term dip. The markets are wising up to this and since the election have wobbled. The situation won't pick up for at least 5 years, probably 10 and may never recover.
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster.
At some point during the next decade a half-decent Labour leader won't have to do very much to win power as long as they're not a terrorist-stained malfunctioning Marxist.
I suspect Johnson will want to mitigate his disaster, despite his current rhetoric. Nevertheless the Johnson regime is shaping up to be highly despotic and he doesn't normally face up to his responsibilities, so who knows?
of course.. it might be the re-making of the UK... who kniows
You mean an unmitigated Brexit disaster will be the remaking of the UK? Hard to see that, but, hey. As I say, I suspect Johnson is too much in love with his own premiership not to mitigate. Revolutions have a habit of eating their own children.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
An elite has manipulated gullible people into supporting something that will damage their lives, in order to benefit the elite?
Not even novel, let alone a triumph.
Brexit is a triumph of the chattering classes, of which Byronic must be a leading light, precisely because it has manipulated people who, on the face of it, should be immune to that sort of manipulation.
no just Brexit,.. everyone is assuming it will be a disaster(it probably will be) .. but it might not be.....
Total failure to understand Brexit. Yet again.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
True - providing that Johnson doesn't make the final error of delivering hard Brexit. Here and now people in the former Red Wall are buzzing about life. They took back control voting leave, and then took back control voting Tory. As long as the Tories don't bring the roof caving in on their heads, these people are likely to continue to feel warm towards the Tories for a long time.
Which is why despite all the tough talk Johnson is not taking us to No Deal departure at the end of next year. Johnson is many things but he is no fool. His government knows in detail what No Deal will do to these voters...
So everything everybody hears on the doorstep seems to confirm their existing priors. Is everybody full of shit about what they're hearing or are the voters trying to be friendly and reflecting their opinions back at them?
The problem with Northern Ireland is that it will probably always have sectarian people aka bigots. The PSNI are useless and corrupt police force. If a Catholic is murdered as in a suspected drug dealer, no one is ever prosecuted, if it's a Protestant they generally catch the gunman.
That is sadly wishful thinking. After the Belfast Agreement NI was in a position of not being (or being less) broken. Now the whole issue is front and centre.
Should Northern Ireland have been the tail that wagged the Brexit dog? Not sure but it has become the elephant in the room.
I have other analogies on request.
I will absolutely own up to it being a wish. But it is based on the facts as I see them. Pure sectarian demographics would have meant ever increasing pressure to join the South. After Brexit, Northern Ireland will be a key borderland between the EU and the UK, which I would hope presents significant commercial opportunities to the province. It could serve a purpose, possibly a vital purpose, for the South too. And it coincides with what seems to be a shift away from sectarian politics. Skyscraper Belfast. Why not? (Apologies if there are already skyscrapers, not been there, hopefully going next year).
Yes I agree if you take out the politics (!!!) there is a golden opportunity for NI. Trouble is a significant number of people want a unified Ireland and will go to great lengths to try to achieve it while a significant number of people wants NI to remain part of the UK.
This is far more unsquareable without the veil of the GFA to allow both sides to believe they are getting what they want.
Surely the figures are low because they asked people to pick one from a long list?
Maybe not such a good poll for RLB - but what's good for RLB isn't apparently what's good for Labour.
Looking at the data more widely whoever wins needs to reverse course on defence, tax and spend, nationalisations and law and order. Though the NHS and climate change policies Labour fought on in the election campaign can stay
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
You express positively what I think is anything but positive, but I agree with the central point and have often made it.
Brexit is not in essence about the economy, or sovereignty, or even immigration - it is about making millions of people feel better about themselves.
Looking more than ever as if he is actually mummified, and has risen from some ancient, richly decorated tomb, the Blair creature appears among us.
Once again he is here to tell us that in fact he knows better than everyone, despite having made, in Iraq, the worst single mistake in foreign policy of the past half-century.
Why do people still deal kindly with this person, who veers between being a vague, rambling nonentity and a raging warmonger, when not surrendering to terrorist murderers on shameful terms?
Generally he returns among us to drivel about the European issue, forgetting that he longed for this country to join the euro, a policy almost every breathing human now realises would have been a disaster.
But this time he has reappeared to gloat over Jeremy Corbyn’s failure and claim that Mr Corbyn’s revolutionary programme and Marxist past stopped him winning the Election.
This is very odd. We now know from his own lips, though 99 per cent of the British media have never reported it, that Mr Blair was himself once a Trotskyist.
He has never revealed which organisation he joined, though a close friend of his belonged to the International Marxist Group, which called for ‘Victory to the IRA’ and urged its student members to infiltrate and take over the moribund Labour Party in the 1970s, when no normal person under the age of 50 would have joined it.
An astonishing number of Mr Blair’s Cabinet were also ‘former’ Marxists – and these are just the ones we know about.
And, as it happens, Mr Blair was in a position to give ‘Victory to the IRA’ in his surrender to them in 1998 – the fact that it was a surrender is shown by the continued legal pursuit of British soldiers accused of crimes during the Troubles, and the effective mass pardon given to IRA killers, though people still refuse to see it.
As for Mr Blair’s other policies – rapid integration in the EU, participation in mad foreign wars, sale of our gold reserves just before the price shot up, a gigantic splurge in welfare and NHS spending way beyond our means, fanatical pursuit of political correctness – they are a mixture of zealotry and stupidity, slightly different from Mr Corbyn’s, but not in fact that different.
I just wish all those who managed to see the obvious Corbyn threat will one day understand the damage they allowed Mr Blair to do by praising him as the ‘moderate’ he never was.“
Surely the figures are low because they asked people to pick one from a long list?
Maybe not such a good poll for RLB - but what's good for RLB isn't apparently what's good for Labour.
Looking at the data more widely whoever wins needs to reverse course on defence, tax and spend, nationalisations and law and order. Though the NHS and climate change policies Labour fought on in the election campaign can stay
But they won the argument, so no need to change course on anything...
Interesting even on supposedly their most popular policy i.e. nationalization of rail, only the absolute core Labour seem to think they should carry on with the same outlook.
Surely the figures are low because they asked people to pick one from a long list?
Maybe not such a good poll for RLB - but what's good for RLB isn't apparently what's good for Labour.
Looking at the data more widely whoever wins needs to reverse course on defence, tax and spend, nationalisations and law and order. Though the NHS and climate change policies Labour fought on in the election campaign can stay
But they won the argument, so no need to change course on anything...
Interesting even on supposedly their most popular policy i.e. nationalization of rail, only the absolute core Labour seem to think they should carry on with the same outlook.
They won the argument within Labour, the general public is another matter
Hmmm. A privately educated London lawyer with a knighthood whose chief claims to fame are he was a fiasco as DPP and came up with a Brexit policy people pointed at and laughed is Labour’s great hope?
If so, they’re in more trouble than I realised. He would be the equivalent of the Tories replacing IDS with Caroline Spelman.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
Logical fallacy though, innit? Something must be done. Brexit is something. Therefore we must do it.
We are poorer, less free, and massively internationally holed because of Brexit. And will remain so. Meanwhile Putin rubs his hands together in glee.
As for the deplorables, they might have faith in the Tories Against Thatcherism. I suspect the figures to whom they have handed this legendary control will be less against Thatcherism than the deplorables hope. And then where will their votes go? I sure hope there's a liberal, internationalist, compassionate, radical, business-friendly offer for them, because the alternative is likely to be very ugly indeed.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
Logical fallacy though, innit? Something must be done. Brexit is something. Therefore we must do it.
We are poorer, less free, and massively internationally holed because of Brexit. And will remain so. Meanwhile Putin rubs his hands together in glee.
As for the deplorables, they might have faith in the Tories Against Thatcherism. I suspect the figures to whom they have handed this legendary control will be less against Thatcherism than the deplorables hope. And then where will their votes go? I sure hope there's a liberal, internationalist, compassionate, radical, business-friendly offer for them, because the alternative is likely to be very ugly indeed.
We are not poorer or less free ffs. Just repeating words over and over doesn't make the true.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
Logical fallacy though, innit? Something must be done. Brexit is something. Therefore we must do it.
We are poorer, less free, and massively internationally holed because of Brexit. And will remain so. Meanwhile Putin rubs his hands together in glee.
As for the deplorables, they might have faith in the Tories Against Thatcherism. I suspect the figures to whom they have handed this legendary control will be less against Thatcherism than the deplorables hope. And then where will their votes go? I sure hope there's a liberal, internationalist, compassionate, radical, business-friendly offer for them, because the alternative is likely to be very ugly indeed.
We are not poorer or less free ffs. Just repeating words over and over doesn't make the true.
Indeed.
Europhiles can claim we are POSSIBLY poorer than we might have been, if we'd voted Remain, but it is pure hypothesis. No one can know.
All we KNOW is that UK GDP Per Capita is at its highest on record. We are richer, not poorer, since the Brexit vote. So the Remainer claim that we are "poorer" is a lie.
Where should we put the statue of Jeremy Corbyn winning the argument?
It will be like Cicero.
Hi Matt - I haven't been on here much since the election so I'm not sure if you saw my post about the Ashfield charity bet. I'd like you to donate the £20 to St Mungo's:
One thing to ponder is how poorly Labour performed in Wales. True, they won 22 seats, once again nailing a majority. But of those 22 seats, only six may be considered safe - Aberavon, Rhondda, Merthyr, Cardiff Central, Cardiff South and Cardiff West. Elsewhere, there were savage cuts to their majorities. Newport East and West are now both highly marginal, while their only seat outside the valleys, Alyn and Deesdie, clung on by a princely 213 votes. Even in Swansea the majorities were only around 8,000.
A value bet here might be on Tories most seats at the next Assembly elections in eighteen months. I can’t see them getting a majority, but I could see them getting about 20-23 seats on similar figures if there is a depressed turnout among Labour voters, which should be enough to top the poll. At that point it will be interesting to see what happens to the Brexit Party - if they win five seats on top up, that might just be enough to remove Labour from power.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
Logical fallacy though, innit? Something must be done. Brexit is something. Therefore we must do it.
We are poorer, less free, and massively internationally holed because of Brexit. And will remain so. Meanwhile Putin rubs his hands together in glee.
As for the deplorables, they might have faith in the Tories Against Thatcherism. I suspect the figures to whom they have handed this legendary control will be less against Thatcherism than the deplorables hope. And then where will their votes go? I sure hope there's a liberal, internationalist, compassionate, radical, business-friendly offer for them, because the alternative is likely to be very ugly indeed.
We are not poorer or less free ffs. Just repeating words over and over doesn't make the true.
Indeed.
Europhiles can claim we are POSSIBLY poorer than we might have been, if we'd voted Remain, but it is pure hypothesis. No one can know.
All we KNOW is that UK GDP Per Capita is at its highest on record. We are richer, not poorer, since the Brexit vote. So the Remainer claim that we are "poorer" is a lie.
We haven't left yet. Even Tories know that Free trade is Good. After Brexit unless we stay in the EEA we will have trade that is more restricted than now both with the EEA and with the various major global economies whose free trade deals we leave behind.
Free trade is Good. Restricted Trade is Bad. Bad when it comes to trade equals cost. We will be worse off outside the EEA. And all those first time Tories aren't going to be told by Tory spinners that them being even worse off than now is a good thing.
Johnson knows what to do. Let's see how smart he is
On the subject of Northern Ireland - a lot of people might think that creating circumstances where over time the North might gradually move away from being economically tied to the U.K. and far more aligned is the best outcome, creating an economic and not just historic and geographic argument for a United Ireland. Because at the end of the day how strong is the rUK attachment to the GB Union? There is resistance to the idea of a United ireland against the will of the North, and obviously the idea of it happening as a result of armed insurrection is an anathema, but beyond that? I think many would welcome it. Much more so than an independent Scotland.
So everything everybody hears on the doorstep seems to confirm their existing priors. Is everybody full of shit about what they're hearing or are the voters trying to be friendly and reflecting their opinions back at them?
On the subject of Northern Ireland - a lot of people might think that creating circumstances where over time the North might gradually move away from being economically tied to the U.K. and far more aligned is the best outcome, creating an economic and not just historic and geographic argument for a United Ireland. Because at the end of the day how strong is the rUK attachment to the GB Union? There is resistance to the idea of a United ireland against the will of the North, and obviously the idea of it happening as a result of armed insurrection is an anathema, but beyond that? I think many would welcome it. Much more so than an independent Scotland.
Given only 43% of Northern Ireland voters voted for Unionist parties at the general election but 54% of Scots voted for Unionist parties, there is clearly only a Unionist majority in Scotland now.
The Boris Deal is this the best way to keep Northern Ireland in the UK for the foreseeable future by avoiding the hard border with the Republic of Ireland which would see the now non Unionist majority in the province push the case for Irish unity further
On the subject of Northern Ireland - a lot of people might think that creating circumstances where over time the North might gradually move away from being economically tied to the U.K. and far more aligned is the best outcome, creating an economic and not just historic and geographic argument for a United Ireland. Because at the end of the day how strong is the rUK attachment to the GB Union? There is resistance to the idea of a United ireland against the will of the North, and obviously the idea of it happening as a result of armed insurrection is an anathema, but beyond that? I think many would welcome it. Much more so than an independent Scotland.
I agree with this. Ultimately being an integral part of Ireland could be in Northern Ireland's interest compared with a less than semi-attached connection with Great Britain. The point is that this isn't a thought-through policy, it's the haphazard and in the short term damaging, consequence of Johnson's political grandstanding.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
Logical fallacy though, innit? Something must be done. Brexit is something. Therefore we must do it.
We are poorer, less free, and massively internationally holed because of Brexit. And will remain so. Meanwhile Putin rubs his hands together in glee.
As for the deplorables, they might have faith in the Tories Against Thatcherism. I suspect the figures to whom they have handed this legendary control will be less against Thatcherism than the deplorables hope. And then where will their votes go? I sure hope there's a liberal, internationalist, compassionate, radical, business-friendly offer for them, because the alternative is likely to be very ugly indeed.
We are not poorer or less free ffs. Just repeating words over and over doesn't make the true.
Poor kids will lose the freedom to spend the ski season in the Alps on their gap year, and British tradesmen to work in Eastern Europe
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Piddock in Islington North? We'll never be rid of her
Something I suggested yesterday. Corbyn stands down so Pidcock can be parachuted into Islington North.
I was told that the Labour leader has to be an MP when they stand but as far as I am aware this would not be against the rules?
I thought part of the problem is that Corbyn would have to stand down immediately as leader.
Yes, because he would no longer be an MP. The only way this would work is if the NEC appointed an acting leader in the meanwhile. Such a blatant stitch up would not I think play well even with Corbynistas.
It might be allowed if Pidcock were considered the right, logical, inevitable and ideal successor. But since her past record shows she is unfit to be an MP, never mind a party leader, I don’t think that kite will fly.
Why did Phillip's Davies share of the vote fall in Shipley? Is it because he's bit of an idiot or is it a Remainy part of Yorkshire?And the swing to Labour seems to be relatively small.
I repeatedly argued, inside my party, that we should respect the result of the referendum and avoid a second one. Of course, when you are in the Shadow Cabinet, you are bound by collective responsibility and I respected that
If only there were some way that someone could stick by what they believe in on a critical issue even if it cost them a position in their party hierarchy*.
I don’t want to patronise anyone by saying that this was all the fault of the media. I know people make up their own minds. But I cannot and will not accept that the media had no part. So much of the coverage sought to demolish Jeremy from day one, not because of him as a person, but because of his politics.
I don't want to patronise anyone. But I'll effectively doing that by emphasising the part of the media as if it was all of the problem, while I make token comments saying I don't believe that when I clearly do.
It's a pretty pathetic letter. 'Brexit, years of decline, anti-establishment feeling, lack of trust in Westminster politics, little connection to the leader of the Party' as she lists them are issues that the Tories face too, more so in some cases, yet they did a better job dealing with it, and she is setting herself as a martyr as 'telling the truth in Westminster can mean people want to punish you'.
That's just yet more 'I am a morally great person, how dare people oppose me' crap dressed up with some self effacing stuff which does not disguise her arrogance. People saying things don't make it true, and saying you get something when your other words and actions undermine that doesn't change that.
*And no I don't think on every issue someone should resign from a position of authority in their party if they disagree, but on such critical issues, issues where people were brave enough to actually leave their parties over it, whinging about how you actually wanted something else to what you told everybody you wanted because you are a good little soldier, is definitely justifying taking a stand.
Surely the figures are low because they asked people to pick one from a long list?
Maybe not such a good poll for RLB - but what's good for RLB isn't apparently what's good for Labour.
Looking at the data more widely whoever wins needs to reverse course on defence, tax and spend, nationalisations and law and order. Though the NHS and climate change policies Labour fought on in the election campaign can stay
I repeatedly argued, inside my party, that we should respect the result of the referendum and avoid a second one. Of course, when you are in the Shadow Cabinet, you are bound by collective responsibility and I respected that
If only there were some way that someone could stick by what they believe in on a critical issue even if it cost them a position in their party hierarchy.
I don’t want to patronise anyone by saying that this was all the fault of the media. I know people make up their own minds. But I cannot and will not accept that the media had no part. So much of the coverage sought to demolish Jeremy from day one, not because of him as a person, but because of his politics.
I don't want to patronise anyone. But I'll effectively doing that by emphasising the part of the media as if it was all of the problem, while I make token comments saying I don't believe that when I clearly do.
It's a pretty pathetic letter. 'Brexit, years of decline, anti-establishment feeling, lack of trust in Westminster politics, little connection to the leader of the Party' as she lists them are issues that the Tories face too, more so in some cases, yet they did a better job dealing with it, and she is setting herself as a martyr as 'telling the truth in Westminster can mean people want to punish you'.
That's just yet more 'I am a morally great person, how dare people oppose me' crap dressed up with some self effacing stuff which does not disguise her arrogance. People saying things don't make it true, and saying you get something when your other words and actions undermine that doesn't change that.
It is also worth remembering at this point that she was such a dedicated servant to her constituents that she buggered off to Italy for a romantic 30th birthday getaway with her boyfriend, while Parliament was having a knife-edge vote on Universal Credit.
Like most people with jobs, I worked through my thirtieth birthday. I thought my students were more important than me having a party, which I could have at any time.
As I say, unfit to be an MP. Awful sense of entitlement and zero humility or courage.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Appropos of nothing, I was out cycling the other day and passed a road in a nearby town called Islington, which I had never noticed, which abutted another road called 'Palmer Road'. I'm takeing this is a sign of who should take over Corbyn's seat should the unlikely happen and he decides to bow out of Westminster altogether.
Why did Phillip's Davies share of the vote fall in Shipley? Is it because he's bit of an idiot or is it a Remainy part of Yorkshire?And the swing to Labour seems to be relatively small.
On the figures there is a small swing to the Conservatives as the Labour share fell 3.3% while his by just 0.5%. looks as if both lost votes to the yorkshire party.
Why did Phillip's Davies share of the vote fall in Shipley? Is it because he's bit of an idiot or is it a Remainy part of Yorkshire?And the swing to Labour seems to be relatively small.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Did he win?
He did indeed. Turned over a 6000 majority.
So. Not all about the ground game then.
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Did he win?
He did indeed. Turned over a 6000 majority.
So. Not all about the ground game then.
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Did he win?
He did indeed. Turned over a 6000 majority.
So. Not all about the ground game then.
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
That’s a cue for a load of activists proving your point by disagreeing with it...
Do we know if tory candidates with more working class backgrounds did better than those with not so working class backgrounds in the marginals?
I was in a marginal and the Tory candidate pretty much only turned up to the count. Most of the campaign literature from the Tories didn't even mention him - it was all neutral looking, and anti-Labour/Corbyn. Two of them only had one mention of the word Conservative, and that was in a font size not much larger than the body text.
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
Did he win?
He did indeed. Turned over a 6000 majority.
So. Not all about the ground game then.
Pretty sure knocking on doors has been shown to make only very marginal gains - but then marginal gains in marginal seats can make the difference.
I am sceptical about the fascination with ground games on here. I think that the media and now social media are way more important. Most door knocking and leafleting is displacement activity to keep activists engaged and happy.
Totally agree with you when it comes to GEs. Won and lost at a national level. For local elections it can make a difference and buck national trends up to a point.
I repeatedly argued, inside my party, that we should respect the result of the referendum and avoid a second one. Of course, when you are in the Shadow Cabinet, you are bound by collective responsibility and I respected that
If only there were some way that someone could stick by what they believe in on a critical issue even if it cost them a position in their party hierarchy.
I don’t want to patronise anyone by saying that this was all the fault of the media. I know people make up their own minds. But I cannot and will not accept that the media had no part. So much of the coverage sought to demolish Jeremy from day one, not because of him as a person, but because of his politics.
I don't want to patronise anyone. But I'll effectively doing that by emphasising the part of the media as if it was all of the problem, while I make token comments saying I don't believe that when I clearly do.
It's a pretty pathetic letter. 'Brexit, years of decline, anti-establishment feeling, lack of trust in Westminster politics, little connection to the leader of the Party' as she lists them are issues that the Tories face too, more so in some cases, yet they did a better job dealing with it, and she is setting herself as a martyr as 'telling the truth in Westminster can mean people want to punish you'.
That's just yet more 'I am a morally great person, how dare people oppose me' crap dressed up with some self effacing stuff which does not disguise her arrogance. People saying things don't make it true, and saying you get something when your other words and actions undermine that doesn't change that.
It is also worth remembering at this point that she was such a dedicated servant to her constituents that she buggered off to Italy for a romantic 30th birthday getaway with her boyfriend, while Parliament was having a knife-edge vote on Universal Credit...
Shame on you, @ydoethur . Nothing is too good for the representatives of The People...
There's every chance that Brexit will be an unmitigated disaster..
As Adam Smith observed to one of his catastrophising acolytes “There’s a lot of ruin in a nation”.
If the Internet is correct, that quote was attributed to Smith by Sir John Sinclair in pages 390-391[2] vol 1 of Sinclair's memoirs, "The Correspondence..." whilst discussing "The American War" (judging from the prior letter[1], it was referring to the American War of Independence).
Given that Scotland had the Highland Clearances forty-to-seventy years later , it would seem that Smith was correct...
Appropos of nothing, I was out cycling the other day and passed a road in a nearby town called Islington, which I had never noticed, which abutted another road called 'Palmer Road'. I'm takeing this is a sign of who should take over Corbyn's seat should the unlikely happen and he decides to bow out of Westminster altogether.
Appropos of nothing, I was out cycling the other day and passed a road in a nearby town called Islington, which I had never noticed, which abutted another road called 'Palmer Road'. I'm takeing this is a sign of who should take over Corbyn's seat should the unlikely happen and he decides to bow out of Westminster altogether.
Appropos of nothing, I was out cycling the other day and passed a road in a nearby town called Islington, which I had never noticed, which abutted another road called 'Palmer Road'. I'm takeing this is a sign of who should take over Corbyn's seat should the unlikely happen and he decides to bow out of Westminster altogether.
(wistful look!)
Palmer 4Leader !
If our own Nick stood I believe he would be in the upper quartile of quality candidates. But I suppose if anyone on PB stood they would likewise tower above most of the candidates in the frame. Even me.
Appropos of nothing, I was out cycling the other day and passed a road in a nearby town called Islington, which I had never noticed, which abutted another road called 'Palmer Road'. I'm takeing this is a sign of who should take over Corbyn's seat should the unlikely happen and he decides to bow out of Westminster altogether.
(wistful look!)
Palmer 4Leader !
If our own Nick stood I believe he would be in the upper quartile of quality candidates. But I suppose if anyone on PB stood they would likewise tower above most of the candidates in the frame. Even me.
I'm sure the Conservatives would like us to be a party primarily representing the working class, but without allies the working class, now an ever-shrinking minority, will never win power. The working class/public servant/idealist/working parents/BAME coalition is potentially a winner on good days, but putting it back together is the challenge which the current contenders need to address.
Comments
Brexit is already a triumph. Why? Because, for the first time in many decades - and certainly the first time in the lives of many Leave voters - the ignored, the deplorables, the northerners, the proles, have told the chattering classes to do something they really hate doing, and - after three years of shameful vacillation - the deplorables have forced their social superiors to heel.
Control has been taken back. Brexit is getting itself done. Democracy is renewed, and 17 and a half million people have faith, once more, that their vote means something.
That is the opposite of disaster.
I've laid him.
Probably didn't two 100 plus majorities to get that done, though!
Or perchance, inn the case of the Mail, Black?
Or, just maybe, there were pretty girls in the relevant Group. I know that was why some joined the Young Conservatives in days or yore!
Regarding the chatter about next Lab leader, I still can`t see past RLB due to likely membership/union support. She will likely be Corbyn`s anointed one.
Although Starmer just heads the betting, I think that if it came down to a Starmer/RLB fight, RLB backers will play the ovaries trump card and sufficient Starmer supporters may end up backing her because they feel they should have a female leader.
Consequently I think her current price is on the high side, though I`m not backing her at 2/1 as I`m already on her at much longer odds.
Which is why despite all the tough talk Johnson is not taking us to No Deal departure at the end of next year. Johnson is many things but he is no fool. His government knows in detail what No Deal will do to these voters...
Not even novel, let alone a triumph.
Still, mitigated disaster must be better than an unmitigated one.
https://twitter.com/TheAtlantic/status/1208064268182183938
I see them. Pure sectarian demographics would have meant ever increasing pressure to join the South. After Brexit, Northern Ireland will be a key borderland between the EU and the UK, which I would hope presents significant commercial opportunities to the province. It could serve a purpose, possibly a vital purpose, for the South too. And it coincides with what seems to be a shift away from sectarian politics. Skyscraper Belfast. Why not? (Apologies if there are already skyscrapers, not been there, hopefully going next year).
There are also UDA & UVF murderers walking around but they're all living in hell.
Anyone who committed a murder, regardless of how psychopathic they are live in hell. They'll have nightmares, can't sleep, etc.
It's just bonkers.
Maybe not such a good poll for RLB - but what's good for RLB isn't apparently what's good for Labour.
This is far more unsquareable without the veil of the GFA to allow both sides to believe they are getting what they want.
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1208682678993727489?s=20
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1208685370738663424?s=20
Brexit is not in essence about the economy, or sovereignty, or even immigration - it is about making millions of people feel better about themselves.
And if they do, that is its benefit.
He was himself a Trot in his youth. So I'm not sure what his point about the Great War Criminal is.
Interesting even on supposedly their most popular policy i.e. nationalization of rail, only the absolute core Labour seem to think they should carry on with the same outlook.
If so, they’re in more trouble than I realised. He would be the equivalent of the Tories replacing IDS with Caroline Spelman.
We are poorer, less free, and massively internationally holed because of Brexit. And will remain so. Meanwhile Putin rubs his hands together in glee.
As for the deplorables, they might have faith in the Tories Against Thatcherism. I suspect the figures to whom they have handed this legendary control will be less against Thatcherism than the deplorables hope. And then where will their votes go? I sure hope there's a liberal, internationalist, compassionate, radical, business-friendly offer for them, because the alternative is likely to be very ugly indeed.
It will be like Cicero.
Europhiles can claim we are POSSIBLY poorer than we might have been, if we'd voted Remain, but it is pure hypothesis. No one can know.
All we KNOW is that UK GDP Per Capita is at its highest on record. We are richer, not poorer, since the Brexit vote. So the Remainer claim that we are "poorer" is a lie.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-per-capita
https://www.mungos.org/
Apologies if you've already responded to my previous post.
A value bet here might be on Tories most seats at the next Assembly elections in eighteen months. I can’t see them getting a majority, but I could see them getting about 20-23 seats on similar figures if there is a depressed turnout among Labour voters, which should be enough to top the poll. At that point it will be interesting to see what happens to the Brexit Party - if they win five seats on top up, that might just be enough to remove Labour from power.
https://twitter.com/USATODAY/status/1208528323007135744?s=19
Free trade is Good. Restricted Trade is Bad. Bad when it comes to trade equals cost. We will be worse off outside the EEA. And all those first time Tories aren't going to be told by Tory spinners that them being even worse off than now is a good thing.
Johnson knows what to do. Let's see how smart he is
https://mobile.twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1208503645584666626
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZUHRVmxTA8
The Boris Deal is this the best way to keep Northern Ireland in the UK for the foreseeable future by avoiding the hard border with the Republic of Ireland which would see the now non Unionist majority in the province push the case for Irish unity further
I doubt many people even knew the candidates name, never mind what class he was identifying as.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1208123909935128576?s=20
https://twitter.com/RyanGirdusky/status/1208040346908811264?s=20
https://twitter.com/charliekirk11/status/1206798519778066433?s=20
https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/22/labour-has-no-hope-of-rebuilding-unless-it-breaks-cold-grip-of-the-hard-left
I was told that the Labour leader has to be an MP when they stand but as far as I am aware this would not be against the rules?
It might be allowed if Pidcock were considered the right, logical, inevitable and ideal successor. But since her past record shows she is unfit to be an MP, never mind a party leader, I don’t think that kite will fly.
https://medium.com/@laura.pidcock.mp/letter-to-the-people-i-represented-406aea893243
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/constituencies/E14000925
https://medium.com/@laura.pidcock.mp/letter-to-the-people-i-represented-406aea893243
I repeatedly argued, inside my party, that we should respect the result of the referendum and avoid a second one. Of course, when you are in the Shadow Cabinet, you are bound by collective responsibility and I respected that
If only there were some way that someone could stick by what they believe in on a critical issue even if it cost them a position in their party hierarchy*.
I don’t want to patronise anyone by saying that this was all the fault of the media. I know people make up their own minds. But I cannot and will not accept that the media had no part. So much of the coverage sought to demolish Jeremy from day one, not because of him as a person, but because of his politics.
I don't want to patronise anyone. But I'll effectively doing that by emphasising the part of the media as if it was all of the problem, while I make token comments saying I don't believe that when I clearly do.
It's a pretty pathetic letter. 'Brexit, years of decline, anti-establishment feeling, lack of trust in Westminster politics, little connection to the leader of the Party' as she lists them are issues that the Tories face too, more so in some cases, yet they did a better job dealing with it, and she is setting herself as a martyr as 'telling the truth in Westminster can mean people want to punish you'.
That's just yet more 'I am a morally great person, how dare people oppose me' crap dressed up with some self effacing stuff which does not disguise her arrogance. People saying things don't make it true, and saying you get something when your other words and actions undermine that doesn't change that.
*And no I don't think on every issue someone should resign from a position of authority in their party if they disagree, but on such critical issues, issues where people were brave enough to actually leave their parties over it, whinging about how you actually wanted something else to what you told everybody you wanted because you are a good little soldier, is definitely justifying taking a stand.
Like most people with jobs, I worked through my thirtieth birthday. I thought my students were more important than me having a party, which I could have at any time.
As I say, unfit to be an MP. Awful sense of entitlement and zero humility or courage.
Rayner looks strongest to me as an outsider, other than Starmer.
The telling sign would be a shift in her accent from faux-Geordie to Mockney.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/labours-ian-lavery-called-shameless-for-accusing-tories-of-stealing-from-miners-despite-receiving-165000-from-unions-himself-1330702
On our side, we had a good candidate and strong campaign, targeting Remainers.
We did comparatively well, but still went backwards.
One reason why I can't be arsed canvassing.
Given that Scotland had the Highland Clearances forty-to-seventy years later , it would seem that Smith was correct...
[1] https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=dJxCAAAAcAAJ&pg=PA390
[2] https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=dJxCAAAAcAAJ&pg=PA391
(There’s an upper quartile ???)