The Long Bailey moves look to be correlated to the Rayner price which has moved in. Some speculation she might go for it herself ? Starmer has moved in with that relatively favourable Labour list poll I think.
Even if that LabourList poll is accurate, it's not actually very favourable for Starmer, since it doesn't take any account of how second preferences are likely to be distributed. I'd expect the bulk of the RLB and Rayner support to end up behind one or the other, with little transferring to Starmer.
Long-Bailey first with Labour List readers for next Labour leader on 14.4%, Starmer second on 13.8%, Rayner 3rd on 13.5%.
The Tories won, the potential Corbyn Sturgeon Government was defeated
Strange, nairy a mention of Corbyn in wee Annie's tweet.
It was a Westminster election not a Holyrood election
Oh, in that case the Scottish Government already have a Mandate for SindyRef2.
Cue the grinding of gears as folk (with whom it actually has fuck all to do) recalibrate other 'reasons' for no indyref II.
The manifesto of the party that won the UK General Election:
Twelve years of SNP government have led to an obsessive focus on independence – all while Scotland’s public services and its economy have been neglected. So long as the SNP are in power, Scottish schools and hospitals will always take second place to the pursuit of another independence referendum.
We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected.
Indeed. @Theuniondivvie seems to be in some bizarre parallel universe where Sturgeon's side won rather than lost the UK General Election.
Despite having had a "once in a generation" referendum they are on their fourth "new mandate" for another one....
The Tories won, the potential Corbyn Sturgeon Government was defeated
Strange, nairy a mention of Corbyn in wee Annie's tweet.
It was a Westminster election not a Holyrood election
Oh, in that case the Scottish Government already have a Mandate for SindyRef2.
Cue the grinding of gears as folk (with whom it actually has fuck all to do) recalibrate other 'reasons' for no indyref II.
The manifesto of the party that won the UK General Election:
Twelve years of SNP government have led to an obsessive focus on independence – all while Scotland’s public services and its economy have been neglected. So long as the SNP are in power, Scottish schools and hospitals will always take second place to the pursuit of another independence referendum.
We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected.
I see the fuck all to do with it folk are starting a wee choir. How festive!
Remind me how that 'gloriously unspecific' manifesto went down in Scotland?
Remind me when Scotland voted to become an independent country?
This was a UK General Election and this is a UK matter and they won a UK majority for that. If Scotland wanted to make independent decisions it should have become an independent country, shouldn't it?
I suggest we just let the Scots witter on about it amongst themselves. There are bigger fish to fry.
The Tories won, the potential Corbyn Sturgeon Government was defeated
Strange, nairy a mention of Corbyn in wee Annie's tweet.
It was a Westminster election not a Holyrood election
Oh, in that case the Scottish Government already have a Mandate for SindyRef2.
Cue the grinding of gears as folk (with whom it actually has fuck all to do) recalibrate other 'reasons' for no indyref II.
The manifesto of the party that won the UK General Election:
Twelve years of SNP government have led to an obsessive focus on independence – all while Scotland’s public services and its economy have been neglected. So long as the SNP are in power, Scottish schools and hospitals will always take second place to the pursuit of another independence referendum.
We are opposed to a second independence referendum and stand with the majority of people in Scotland, who do not want to return to division and uncertainty. Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP promised that the 2014 referendum would be a ‘once in a generation’ vote and the result was decisive. We believe that outcome should be respected.
Indeed. @Theuniondivvie seems to be in some bizarre parallel universe where Sturgeon's side won rather than lost the UK General Election.
Despite having had a "once in a generation" referendum they are on their fourth "new mandate" for another one....
Sturgeon tied the SNP's future to Jeremy Corbyn. He lost, so they lost. The Tories have no reason to grant a new referendum.
The Long Bailey moves look to be correlated to the Rayner price which has moved in. Some speculation she might go for it herself ? Starmer has moved in with that relatively favourable Labour list poll I think.
Even if that LabourList poll is accurate, it's not actually very favourable for Starmer, since it doesn't take any account of how second preferences are likely to be distributed. I'd expect the bulk of the RLB and Rayner support to end up behind one or the other, with little transferring to Starmer.
Long-Bailey first with Labour List readers for next Labour leader on 14.4%, Starmer second on 13.8%, Rayner 3rd on 13.5%.
The consensus in Labour-land is that the poll is actually pretty decent for Starmer as Labour List's readership tends to be very Corbyn-centric.
It's worth remembering that Labour's membership is focused on London, the south and the university towns, and is very anti-Brexit.
If Starmer gets into the contest, it could be pretty close IMO.
If Nandy gets on the ballot (which I suspect she will), I'd also suspect that the vast majority of her vote would then transfer to Starmer over RLB. Unless RLB has a huge lead in the first round, she's definitely beatable.
Sturgeon tied the SNP's future to Jeremy Corbyn. He lost, so they lost. The Tories have no reason to grant a new referendum.
The creatures outside looked from Brit Nat to English Nat and from English Nat to Brit Nat, and from Brit Nat to English Nat again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
Which of the Labour leader candidates is most likely to put aside tribalism and work with the lib Dems and Greens
I'm not sure what's in it for the Lib Dems to be honest. Anyone up for election night on PB will remember someone - I presumed it to be a troll - arguing the Lib Dems should disband themselves because otherwise they're basically Tories.
The argument "Lib Dems and Labour should put tribalism aside and work together" is making a similar mistake (IMO) as the one that says "Lib Dems should just disband". It assumes the LDs are just there for Labour's benefit, and they basically have the same values and programme. That's not true, and many wouldn't vote for the LDs if they were seen as nothing more than an orange version of the Cooperative Party.
Moreover, the LDs have always been a "building project" - activists grinding away to build up bases in constituencies scattered across the country. Once a concentration of support emerges, it may eventually culminate in an MP ... but at the same time, they're running against a treadmill as existing power bases can deteriorate and rapidly blow away with the political wind:
Constituencies where the LDs are big enough to have a "spoiler" effect and Labour would like them to stand down, are exactly the kind of place the LDs are working on "turning" into a seat in 10 years' time or so. If you look at their history, when incumbent parties have been smashed (as happened to many Tories in '97 and Labour in '10), the LDs have often moved past them into 2nd place at the next election then gone on to convert the seat later. Seats liable to change hands and where LDs are in a good 3rd place are extremely valuable to them.
For it to be interesting to the Lib Dems the Labour Party would have to sign up to implementing PR. Electoral reform is the holy grail of Lib Dem policies and while you are right about it forcing them to accept giving up in many seats in favour of labour, it would be a one time thing as they wouldn't have the same situation under a PR system. While this once seemed impossible, Labour are on their 4th election defeat, staring a 5th in the face, and for the first time would actually have won more seats under PR.
Unlike in 1997 or 2010 the Lib Dems are starting from such a low base that they are facing something of an existential crisis now. There's no strongholds left and their main rallying cause of the last couple years has just been destroyed. The two parties have never both simultaneously been so down in the dumps which means its the best time for them to try something different.
For it to be interesting to the Lib Dems the Labour Party would have to sign up to implementing PR. Electoral reform is the holy grail of Lib Dem policies and while you are right about it forcing them to accept giving up in many seats in favour of labour, it would be a one time thing as they wouldn't have the same situation under a PR system. While this once seemed impossible, Labour are on their 4th election defeat, staring a 5th in the face, and for the first time would actually have won more seats under PR.
Unlike in 1997 or 2010 the Lib Dems are starting from such a low base that they are facing something of an existential crisis now. There's no strongholds left and their main rallying cause of the last couple years has just been destroyed. The two parties have never both simultaneously been so down in the dumps which means its the best time for them to try something different.
I did wonder whether a one-time "we stand down, you give us PR" deal might be workable. But post-PR the Labour party would almost certainly split anyway (no need for socialists and social democrats to be in same coalition) so not sure why Lab would be up for it. If they could win under FPTP surely they'd prefer to keep things that way.
Sturgeon tied the SNP's future to Jeremy Corbyn. He lost, so they lost. The Tories have no reason to grant a new referendum.
The creatures outside looked from Brit Nat to English Nat and from English Nat to Brit Nat, and from Brit Nat to English Nat again; but already it was impossible to say which was which.
As you know I want you to get a referendum and win it. I'm not saying its right or wrong, I'm speculating on what will happen rather than what I want to happen.
If you get a chance to have another referendum in the future make sure you seize the power to "take back control" as the UK did in its referendum.
Comments
It's worth remembering that Labour's membership is focused on London, the south and the university towns, and is very anti-Brexit.
If Starmer gets into the contest, it could be pretty close IMO.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1206945721200627715
NEW THREAD
From what I know she’s a good MP and nice too. Husband worked with her on a save Millom’s swimming pool campaign.
Unlike in 1997 or 2010 the Lib Dems are starting from such a low base that they are facing something of an existential crisis now. There's no strongholds left and their main rallying cause of the last couple years has just been destroyed. The two parties have never both simultaneously been so down in the dumps which means its the best time for them to try something different.
If you get a chance to have another referendum in the future make sure you seize the power to "take back control" as the UK did in its referendum.
Northern Ireland Update.
Jeffrey Donaldson is highly likely going to be the new DUP Westminster leader.