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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Whichever party wins UK general elections one thing in British politics stays the same

The table lists all the party leaders who have led their parties to general election victories since 1935. It does not include Gordon Brown (PM 2017-2010) and Jim Callaghan (PM 1976-1979) who became PM in the middle of parliaments and went onto to lose the following general elections.

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Black_Rook

First!

(If only: I got a 2:1. But such is life.)

edmundintokyo

I don't think the second degree counts so Kier Starmer is out. So it's Angela Rayner?

Black_Rook

edmundintokyo said:

I don't think the second degree counts so Kier Starmer is out. So it's Angela Rayner?

No, it'll be Long-Bailey. In which case they're doomed.

rkrkrk

So voting in someone from Cambridge leads to WWII. That's the right conclusion to draw yeah?

Black_Rook

rkrkrk said:

So voting in someone from Cambridge leads to WWII. That's the right conclusion to draw yeah?

Or, alternatively, it results in a huge mega landslide victory bigger than any other in the era of universal suffrage (1931) 😁

ydoethur

It doesn't include Chamberlain, but then he was a drop-out so doesn't count. Or Home, but he was Oxford as well.

One technical point - Churchill didn't go to university but he was at Sandhurst which is usually accepted as equivalent to a degree in that era.

alex_

ydoethur said:

It doesn't include Chamberlain, but then he was a drop-out so doesn't count. Or Home, but he was Oxford as well.

One technical point - Churchill didn't go to university but he was at Sandhurst which is usually accepted as equivalent to a degree in that era.

The former two didn’t win elections

WhisperingOracle

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

alex_

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

alex_

I think perhaps that what the EU should have found a way to do was allow the UK to try to negotiate a deal with the US before the transition was completed, possibly before we left the EU (but contingent on us doing so). When it didn’t happen/was blocked by Congress it would have seriously focussed minds in the U.K.

edmundintokyo

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

This is exactly right, although I guess you can make the argument that if you don't make a hard deadline and bluff everyone that their businesses will be inconvenienced unless they pass it you won't get it done in 5 years either, for the same reason.

numbertwelve

I suspect the ruling out further delay gambit is an attempt to redo the Boris tactic of threatening to leave without a deal if we didn’t get an amended WA.

He thinks it worked last time so is trying to do it again. Frankly I think the idea we’ll get anything like a comprehensive trade deal in that time is pie in the sky so it’ll be interesting to see what happens when November rolls around.

alex_

edmundintokyo said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

This is exactly right, although I guess you can make the argument that if you don't make a hard deadline and bluff everyone that their businesses will be inconvenienced unless they pass it you won't get it done in 5 years either, for the same reason.

To be frank, to get all the relevant legislation for a deal through everything would probably have to be wrapped up by June anyway. What is the normal timeframe between EU trade deals being agreed (even those for which there is no internal opposition whatsoever) and becoming law? I imagine many regional parliaments probably clock off for two months over the new year. Would the Irish require a referendum? And of course some EU countries may be having elections and not even legally able to pass laws. So it’s not even a case of creating a threat of nodeal to get it done. The WA only required to agreement if leaders and the European Parliament.

Foxy

Any other options for an Oxford educated Labour leader than Yvette Cooper? Could do worse...

I think Labour are about to miss the point. It matters little who is out front of the house, if the policies are not wanted by the electorate.

nunu2

https://mobile.twitter.com/make_trouble/status/1206704511991070720

alex_

Foxy said:

Any other options for an Oxford educated Labour leader than Yvette Cooper? Could do worse...

I think Labour are about to miss the point. It matters little who is out front of the house, if the policies are not wanted by the electorate.

I don’t think even that. The no1 priority has to be to actually care whether you want to win. Labour didn’t appear to even have a strategy for selling the political platform they were standing on. There was little long term planning that went into the manifesto, and little competent attempts to take the election seriously. Lots of evidence that seats were targeted for ideological reasons, rather than prospect of/necessity for success.

SouthamObserver

Foxy said:

Any other options for an Oxford educated Labour leader than Yvette Cooper? Could do worse...

I think Labour are about to miss the point. It matters little who is out front of the house, if the policies are not wanted by the electorate.

Labour needs a leader who voters instinctively believe is on their side, even if they disagree with him/her on some issues. They also need a leader whose focus is domestic, not foreign. They need one capable of meeting leaders of the Jewish community and offering a sincere apology for what has happened inside the party for the last four years. And they need a message that focuses on three or four key issues and policies. I can see several potential candidates who could do these things. Unfortunately, they do not include the favourite for the job.

OldKingCole

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

That, TBH, is quite a thought. Means of course that when Boris/Cummings say they are 'outlawing an extension', all they can actually mean is that by 31/12/20 they will have reached a deal with the Commission on which both agree. If Wallonia or Lithuania isn't happy we still have to sit tight and wait. I assume that our Government would arrange trade deals to be activated immediately Wallonia etc get round to agreeing.

squareroot2

Thank God for Oxford University, so much better than Cambridge which produced a lot of traitors.

Theuniondivvie

numbertwelve said:

I suspect the ruling out further delay gambit is an attempt to redo the Boris tactic of threatening to leave without a deal if we didn’t get an amended WA.

He thinks it worked last time so is trying to do it again. Frankly I think the idea we’ll get anything like a comprehensive trade deal in that time is pie in the sky so it’ll be interesting to see what happens when November rolls around.

Still, the usual suspects will be getting the band BMW and the Prosecco Makers back together. There was even a correspondent on R4 this am helpfully suggesting this would pile pressure on the EU.

OnlyLivingBoy

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

squareroot2

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Your brand of deal with the EU was voted against by the electorate. +No one is interested in Labour (or LD for that matter) solutions, especially from Corbyn acolytes.
The Govt has a mandate. Get Brexit done, and Boris will.

alex_

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

That, TBH, is quite a thought. Means of course that when Boris/Cummings say they are 'outlawing an extension', all they can actually mean is that by 31/12/20 they will have reached a deal with the Commission on which both agree. If Wallonia or Lithuania isn't happy we still have to sit tight and wait. I assume that our Government would arrange trade deals to be activated immediately Wallonia etc get round to agreeing.

“Means, of course...

You sure? Although maybe the infamous GATT can come riding to our rescue at that point...

OldKingCole

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

Any other options for an Oxford educated Labour leader than Yvette Cooper? Could do worse...

I think Labour are about to miss the point. It matters little who is out front of the house, if the policies are not wanted by the electorate.

Labour needs a leader who voters instinctively believe is on their side, even if they disagree with him/her on some issues. They also need a leader whose focus is domestic, not foreign. They need one capable of meeting leaders of the Jewish community and offering a sincere apology for what has happened inside the party for the last four years. And they need a message that focuses on three or four key issues and policies. I can see several potential candidates who could do these things. Unfortunately, they do not include the favourite for the job.

It would help if he or she were not overtly republican as well.
However, it has to be remembered that one handicap a Labour leader has is that immediately he or she gets into post the 'investigation' departments of the Mail, Sun and Express will swing into action, looking for any activities from whenever that can be used to discredit him or her.

Luckyguy1983

What's funny is how not going to university at all is a better strategy than going to one that's not Oxford.

ydoethur

alex_ said:

ydoethur said:

It doesn't include Chamberlain, but then he was a drop-out so doesn't count. Or Home, but he was Oxford as well.

One technical point - Churchill didn't go to university but he was at Sandhurst which is usually accepted as equivalent to a degree in that era.

The former two didn’t win elections

I am aware of that, but not were they listed among the exceptions (Brown and Callaghan were the only ones mentioned).

WhisperingOracle

squareroot2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Your brand of deal with the EU was voted against by the electorate. +No one is interested in Labour (or LD for that matter) solutions, especially from Corbyn acolytes.
The Govt has a mandate. Get Brexit done, and Boris will.

If we leave on WTO terms, when the WTO effectively doesn't even exist at the moment as a capable institution, Johnson's government will last less than half the five years, despite the great glow of triumphalism now.

OldKingCole

alex_ said:

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

That, TBH, is quite a thought. Means of course that when Boris/Cummings say they are 'outlawing an extension', all they can actually mean is that by 31/12/20 they will have reached a deal with the Commission on which both agree. If Wallonia or Lithuania isn't happy we still have to sit tight and wait. I assume that our Government would arrange trade deals to be activated immediately Wallonia etc get round to agreeing.

“Means, of course...

You sure? Although maybe the infamous GATT can come riding to our rescue at that point...

The correct use of commas here is beginning to rival pineapple on pizza as a point for discussion.

But, of course, you are correct! Mea culpa. Or possibly peccavi.

OnlyLivingBoy

squareroot2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Your brand of deal with the EU was voted against by the electorate. +No one is interested in Labour (or LD for that matter) solutions, especially from Corbyn acolytes.
The Govt has a mandate. Get Brexit done, and Boris will.

Chill mate, I agree with you, or rather I think you are agreeing with me. I am saying that the Tories will prioritise a quick deal with the EU that gives the UK a high degree of regulatory autonomy over a more drawn out process that preserves the economic benefits of the single market and protects the economy. The consensus view in financial markets is that Johnson will pivot to a compromise deal with the EU. I disagree because I think the political calculation is exactly the one you describe. Which implies economic pain, in the short run at least.

Luckyguy1983

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

That, TBH, is quite a thought. Means of course that when Boris/Cummings say they are 'outlawing an extension', all they can actually mean is that by 31/12/20 they will have reached a deal with the Commission on which both agree. If Wallonia or Lithuania isn't happy we still have to sit tight and wait. I assume that our Government would arrange trade deals to be activated immediately Wallonia etc get round to agreeing.

If Germany and France agree, the little countries will get into line. That's what being in the EU means. Which is why I'm glad we're leaving.

alex_

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Yep probably the “limited” trade deal won’t be much better than WTO anyway, so might as well get on with it. I guess they might look to improve the deal and make it more comprehensive at a later date. And after seeing what, if anything, they get out of the US etc

I think “stupidity” was possibly the wrong word for me to use, as it applies purely in relation to the economy.

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

Thank God for Oxford University, so much better than Cambridge which produced a lot of traitors.

Oxford also gave us Dominic Cummings and Mark Reckless.

ydoethur

Luckyguy1983 said:

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

That, TBH, is quite a thought. Means of course that when Boris/Cummings say they are 'outlawing an extension', all they can actually mean is that by 31/12/20 they will have reached a deal with the Commission on which both agree. If Wallonia or Lithuania isn't happy we still have to sit tight and wait. I assume that our Government would arrange trade deals to be activated immediately Wallonia etc get round to agreeing.

If Germany and France agree, the little countries will get into line. That's what being in the EU means. Which is why I'm glad we're leaving.

Canada says hello.

Harris_Tweed

squareroot2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Your brand of deal with the EU was voted against by the electorate. +No one is interested in Labour (or LD for that matter) solutions, especially from Corbyn acolytes.
The Govt has a mandate. Get Brexit done, and Boris will.

I’m old enough to remember when the settled view of leavers was that we couldn’t judge what flavour Brexit was on the referendum ballot paper

SouthamObserver

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

To be fair, they made their no extension strategy absolutely clear during the election campaign. A lot of people on here and elsewhere thought that they were just saying this. It was always pretty clear they meant it. The interesting bit will be how they manage the fall-out from taking this route. Deliberately harming the economy when you are promising big increases in public spending and no tax rises either means breaking those promises or going on a large-scale borrowing spree.

Luckyguy1983

ydoethur said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

That, TBH, is quite a thought. Means of course that when Boris/Cummings say they are 'outlawing an extension', all they can actually mean is that by 31/12/20 they will have reached a deal with the Commission on which both agree. If Wallonia or Lithuania isn't happy we still have to sit tight and wait. I assume that our Government would arrange trade deals to be activated immediately Wallonia etc get round to agreeing.

If Germany and France agree, the little countries will get into line. That's what being in the EU means. Which is why I'm glad we're leaving.

Canada says hello.

Um, thanks, say hello back for me?

SouthamObserver

OldKingCole said:

SouthamObserver said:

Foxy said:

Any other options for an Oxford educated Labour leader than Yvette Cooper? Could do worse...

I think Labour are about to miss the point. It matters little who is out front of the house, if the policies are not wanted by the electorate.

Labour needs a leader who voters instinctively believe is on their side, even if they disagree with him/her on some issues. They also need a leader whose focus is domestic, not foreign. They need one capable of meeting leaders of the Jewish community and offering a sincere apology for what has happened inside the party for the last four years. And they need a message that focuses on three or four key issues and policies. I can see several potential candidates who could do these things. Unfortunately, they do not include the favourite for the job.

It would help if he or she were not overtly republican as well.
However, it has to be remembered that one handicap a Labour leader has is that immediately he or she gets into post the 'investigation' departments of the Mail, Sun and Express will swing into action, looking for any activities from whenever that can be used to discredit him or her.

That comes with the territory. The trick is not to have too many skeletons. Corbyn had a cemetery full.

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Thank God for Oxford University, so much better than Cambridge which produced a lot of traitors.

Oxford also gave us Dominic Cummings and Mark Reckless.

I wondered how long it would take someone to bite. Usually its Cambridge alumni.. Did you go to Cambridge

Harris_Tweed

edmundintokyo said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

This is exactly right, although I guess you can make the argument that if you don't make a hard deadline and bluff everyone that their businesses will be inconvenienced unless they pass it you won't get it done in 5 years either, for the same reason.

Or we’re just encouraging them to offer a suboptimal deal which we (may) end up accepting because of our own legal deadline.

I get why May had the wheeze of writing things into law that one wing or the other wanted In order to get their votes on board (with, it has to be said, limited success).

Why Boris wants to tie his hands in the same way when he doesn’t have to horse trade at home is a mystery to me.

nichomar

Well he is stark raving bonkers, there is no need to rush the trade deals unless this is what you wanted all along he has no need to be macho why is he doing it? I can see no logic whatsoever.

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Thank God for Oxford University, so much better than Cambridge which produced a lot of traitors.

Oxford also gave us Dominic Cummings and Mark Reckless.

I wondered how long it would take someone to bite. Usually its Cambridge alumni.. Did you go to Cambridge

Certainly not. I was at a proper university.

alex_

Luckyguy1983 said:

OldKingCole said:

alex_ said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

This new pragmatic face people were hoping for from them on Brexit next year may not be there.

The absolute stupidity comes not from the debates about whether a deal can be negotiated in the tiny time frame. It comes from the fact that even then it can be torpedoed during the subsequent legislative process by any number of EU countries/regional parliaments for whom a trade deal with the U.K. will have zero significance whatsoever. Especially if it has no freedom of movement provisions which is the only relevant thing for many country’s relationship with the UK.

That, TBH, is quite a thought. Means of course that when Boris/Cummings say they are 'outlawing an extension', all they can actually mean is that by 31/12/20 they will have reached a deal with the Commission on which both agree. If Wallonia or Lithuania isn't happy we still have to sit tight and wait. I assume that our Government would arrange trade deals to be activated immediately Wallonia etc get round to agreeing.

If Germany and France agree, the little countries will get into line. That's what being in the EU means. Which is why I'm glad we're leaving.

They will (probably) get into line, eventually... They won’t cancel Christmas just so they can pass a deal that they don’t care about before an artificial deadline that they don’t care about.

OldKingCole

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Thank God for Oxford University, so much better than Cambridge which produced a lot of traitors.

Oxford also gave us Dominic Cummings and Mark Reckless.

Scottish Universities seem to do better; John Smith, Nicola Sturgeon and Charles Kennedy from Glasgow and Alex Salmond from St Andrews.

ydoethur

Well, this is dramatic:

Pervez Musharraf: Pakistan ex-leader sentenced to death for treason
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50819772

OnlyLivingBoy

alex_ said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Yep probably the “limited” trade deal won’t be much better than WTO anyway, so might as well get on with it. I guess they might look to improve the deal and make it more comprehensive at a later date. And after seeing what, if anything, they get out of the US etc

I think “stupidity” was possibly the wrong word for me to use, as it applies purely in relation to the economy.

The UK will one day revert to a comprehensive trade deal with the EU because that is where economic logic takes us. It might be too late for large parts of the agri-food and auto industries by then, of course. I'm sure Dominic Cummings has it all worked out, anyway.
To be honest, now that I've stopped trying to stop Brexit, I feel kind of liberated. I may even buy some popcorn.

DavidL

The only way that I see a comprehensive trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020 is a continuation of much of the transitional provisions indefinitely which is what the political declaration seems to contemplate. This would give us tariff free access to the SM with fairly broad agreement about equivalence of regulation. The price would have to be a large degree of alignment with the EU in terms of regulation.

We can only hope that Boris's majority is large enough to put that through. It is possible that Cummings has gamed this and seen a repeat of the nonsense that we had in the last Parliament with remainers constantly putting off the leaving date in the hope that it never happens except this time it would be ERG types seeking to prevent the deal on the basis that it amounts to some form of servitude or something equally ridiculous.

The problem is that the broader the agreement the more problematic and lengthy the approval process in each EU country is going to be. It seems unlikely to me that the EU will be able to hold together the degree of unanimity achieved in the Art 50 negotiations, especially if several EU countries are in recession. Will this put pressure on them? I am unconvinced.

Nigelb

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Your brand of deal with the EU was voted against by the electorate. +No one is interested in Labour (or LD for that matter) solutions, especially from Corbyn acolytes.
The Govt has a mandate. Get Brexit done, and Boris will.

Chill mate, I agree with you, or rather I think you are agreeing with me. I am saying that the Tories will prioritise a quick deal with the EU that gives the UK a high degree of regulatory autonomy over a more drawn out process that preserves the economic benefits of the single market and protects the economy. The consensus view in financial markets is that Johnson will pivot to a compromise deal with the EU. I disagree because I think the political calculation is exactly the one you describe. Which implies economic pain, in the short run at least.

Didn’t you get the memo ?

The people in ‘People’s Government’ are those who voted from them.
Other persons belong in a different category.

Jonathan

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

StuartDickson

Ian Murray refuses to rule out running for leader or depute leader of the Labour Party.

He kind of backed Richard Leonard staying on as Scottish leader (half-heartedly), and effectively said that he will not run for the newly-vacant Scottish depute leader position (defeated former Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland Lesley Laird resigned yesterday, after losing Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath).

Foxy

SouthamObserver said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

To be fair, they made their no extension strategy absolutely clear during the election campaign. A lot of people on here and elsewhere thought that they were just saying this. It was always pretty clear they meant it. The interesting bit will be how they manage the fall-out from taking this route. Deliberately harming the economy when you are promising big increases in public spending and no tax rises either means breaking those promises or going on a large-scale borrowing spree.

Yep, people voted for a deal done quickly, which can only mean either No Deal, Minimum Deal or Bad Deal. The latter is most likely. BoZo's Deal shows that it is fairly easy to draft a Bad Deal fairly quickly. In that Deal NI got shafted, but this time the shafting will be on the mainland.

Glad that I have a secure job and pension. A noticeable spike in headhunters emails over the last weeks.

Nigelb

DavidL said:

The only way that I see a comprehensive trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020 is a continuation of much of the transitional provisions indefinitely which is what the political declaration seems to contemplate. This would give us tariff free access to the SM with fairly broad agreement about equivalence of regulation. The price would have to be a large degree of alignment with the EU in terms of regulation.

We can only hope that Boris's majority is large enough to put that through. It is possible that Cummings has gamed this and seen a repeat of the nonsense that we had in the last Parliament with remainers constantly putting off the leaving date in the hope that it never happens except this time it would be ERG types seeking to prevent the deal on the basis that it amounts to some form of servitude or something equally ridiculous.

The problem is that the broader the agreement the more problematic and lengthy the approval process in each EU country is going to be. It seems unlikely to me that the EU will be able to hold together the degree of unanimity achieved in the Art 50 negotiations, especially if several EU countries are in recession. Will this put pressure on them? I am unconvinced.

I’d be amazed if we even attempt such a thing.
The intention to aim for a Canada style FTA by the year end is quite clear.

If not entirely realistic.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

Well, this is dramatic:

Pervez Musharraf: Pakistan ex-leader sentenced to death for treason
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50819772

Indeed but if a military coup isn't treason what is?

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

Ian Murray refuses to rule out running for leader or depute leader of the Labour Party.

He kind of backed Richard Leonard staying on as Scottish leader (half-heartedly), and effectively said that he will not run for the newly-vacant Scottish depute leader position (defeated former Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland Lesley Laird resigned yesterday, after losing Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath).

Aargh! Yanks run, normal people stand.

alex_

Nigelb said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

squareroot2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Your brand of deal with the EU was voted against by the electorate. +No one is interested in Labour (or LD for that matter) solutions, especially from Corbyn acolytes.
The Govt has a mandate. Get Brexit done, and Boris will.

Chill mate, I agree with you, or rather I think you are agreeing with me. I am saying that the Tories will prioritise a quick deal with the EU that gives the UK a high degree of regulatory autonomy over a more drawn out process that preserves the economic benefits of the single market and protects the economy. The consensus view in financial markets is that Johnson will pivot to a compromise deal with the EU. I disagree because I think the political calculation is exactly the one you describe. Which implies economic pain, in the short run at least.

Didn’t you get the memo ?

The people in ‘People’s Government’ are those who voted from them.
Other persons belong in a different category.

To be fair there was a precedent in that that’s exactly what the “people” in “People’s vote” meant (in fact I assume the use of the word by the Govt was deliberate trolling). All we need now is for the People’s Government to announces a People’s vote and the country will be reunited as one People!

DavidL

Nigelb said:

DavidL said:

The only way that I see a comprehensive trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020 is a continuation of much of the transitional provisions indefinitely which is what the political declaration seems to contemplate. This would give us tariff free access to the SM with fairly broad agreement about equivalence of regulation. The price would have to be a large degree of alignment with the EU in terms of regulation.

We can only hope that Boris's majority is large enough to put that through. It is possible that Cummings has gamed this and seen a repeat of the nonsense that we had in the last Parliament with remainers constantly putting off the leaving date in the hope that it never happens except this time it would be ERG types seeking to prevent the deal on the basis that it amounts to some form of servitude or something equally ridiculous.

The problem is that the broader the agreement the more problematic and lengthy the approval process in each EU country is going to be. It seems unlikely to me that the EU will be able to hold together the degree of unanimity achieved in the Art 50 negotiations, especially if several EU countries are in recession. Will this put pressure on them? I am unconvinced.

I’d be amazed if we even attempt such a thing.
The intention to aim for a Canada style FTA by the year end is quite clear.

If not entirely realistic.

Well we'll see. I think having achieved Brexit Boris will want as little disruption as possible.

OldKingCole

OnlyLivingBoy said:

alex_ said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

Yep probably the “limited” trade deal won’t be much better than WTO anyway, so might as well get on with it. I guess they might look to improve the deal and make it more comprehensive at a later date. And after seeing what, if anything, they get out of the US etc

I think “stupidity” was possibly the wrong word for me to use, as it applies purely in relation to the economy.

The UK will one day revert to a comprehensive trade deal with the EU because that is where economic logic takes us. It might be too late for large parts of the agri-food and auto industries by then, of course. I'm sure Dominic Cummings has it all worked out, anyway.
To be honest, now that I've stopped trying to stop Brexit, I feel kind of liberated. I may even buy some popcorn.

Inclined to agree; the "stop Brexit' ship has sailed, and however much we regret it, it's now a question of waiting more or less patiently, for the opportunity to Rejoin. If, at 80+, I can afford to do that!
Or, as an alternative, moving to Scotland or Ireland. Not too keen on the climate in either of those options, though.

IanB2

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

The markets are clearly going through the same thought process; having risen to $1.35 after the exit poll, the £ has quickly sunk back to about $1.325

ydoethur

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Well, this is dramatic:

Pervez Musharraf: Pakistan ex-leader sentenced to death for treason
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50819772

Indeed but if a military coup isn't treason what is?

Voting Conservative in the North?

Joking aside, yes you're right. But I expected some sort of fudge on the sentence.

(And ironically it's not the coup itself he's been sentenced for.)

squareroot2

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

AlastairMeeks

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

There was never going to be a pivot to the centre. The coalition that Boris Johnson has constructed is based around Farageism. Look out for a government set to be dominated by social and economic illiberalism (with the EU to be continually blamed for everything that doesn’t go right) and a profound intolerance of pluralism, with a decent chance of good old-fashioned venality. Not so much Singapore-on-Thames as Budapest-on-Thames.

Politically it will no doubt be very successful. It’s worked in Hungary and Poland and it will work here.

Jonathan

Clearly to boost their chances Labour should Elect someone whose surname ends with ‘n’ or ‘r’

OldKingCole

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

To be fair, they made their no extension strategy absolutely clear during the election campaign. A lot of people on here and elsewhere thought that they were just saying this. It was always pretty clear they meant it. The interesting bit will be how they manage the fall-out from taking this route. Deliberately harming the economy when you are promising big increases in public spending and no tax rises either means breaking those promises or going on a large-scale borrowing spree.

Yep, people voted for a deal done quickly, which can only mean either No Deal, Minimum Deal or Bad Deal. The latter is most likely. BoZo's Deal shows that it is fairly easy to draft a Bad Deal fairly quickly. In that Deal NI got shafted, but this time the shafting will be on the mainland.

Glad that I have a secure job and pension. A noticeable spike in headhunters emails over the last weeks.

To take you to which country? US? Aus?

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

Well, it is a bit annoying to have to work for a degree when at Oxford you can buy it for four guineas.

ydoethur

Jonathan said:

Clearly to boost their chances Labour should Elect someone whose surname ends with ‘n’ or ‘r’

These talking books are becoming very tiresome.

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

ydoethur said:

Well, this is dramatic:

Pervez Musharraf: Pakistan ex-leader sentenced to death for treason
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-50819772

Indeed but if a military coup isn't treason what is?

Voting Conservative in the North?

Joking aside, yes you're right. But I expected some sort of fudge on the sentence.

(And ironically it's not the coup itself he's been sentenced for.)

He's quite likely to die before it is actually enforced. But it may not be an unhelpful precedent if other military leaders are tempted to do the same.

Gallowgate

All setup for Gallowgate to win an election for Labour in 2040 as a Newcastle University graduate.

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

Well, it is a bit annoying to have to work for a degree when at Oxford you can buy it for four guineas.

Perhaps your old university should use market forces and undercut Oxford,

IanB2

DavidL said:

The only way that I see a comprehensive trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020 is a continuation of much of the transitional provisions indefinitely which is what the political declaration seems to contemplate. This would give us tariff free access to the SM with fairly broad agreement about equivalence of regulation. The price would have to be a large degree of alignment with the EU in terms of regulation.

We can only hope that Boris's majority is large enough to put that through. It is possible that Cummings has gamed this and seen a repeat of the nonsense that we had in the last Parliament with remainers constantly putting off the leaving date in the hope that it never happens except this time it would be ERG types seeking to prevent the deal on the basis that it amounts to some form of servitude or something equally ridiculous.

The problem is that the broader the agreement the more problematic and lengthy the approval process in each EU country is going to be. It seems unlikely to me that the EU will be able to hold together the degree of unanimity achieved in the Art 50 negotiations, especially if several EU countries are in recession. Will this put pressure on them? I am unconvinced.

The ERG might consider that after the election victory and the promises made during the campaign, the political price for resuming Tory silly buggeryness over Europe might be high.

Jonathan

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

Nobody cares where you went to college.

SouthamObserver

AlastairMeeks said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

There was never going to be a pivot to the centre. The coalition that Boris Johnson has constructed is based around Farageism. Look out for a government set to be dominated by social and economic illiberalism (with the EU to be continually blamed for everything that doesn’t go right) and a profound intolerance of pluralism, with a decent chance of good old-fashioned venality. Not so much Singapore-on-Thames as Budapest-on-Thames.

Politically it will no doubt be very successful. It’s worked in Hungary and Poland and it will work here.

Yep - along with our forthcoming loss of freedoms, we should expect a more powerful executive, subject to much less scrutiny and legal review. A lot of commentators who told us leaving the EU was all about liberty will spend the next few years justifying this. What Hungary and Poland have that we will not have, though, is membership of the Single Market and Customs Union, as well as populations who still remember when things were a lot worse. Othering will clearly be a perennial Johnson/Cummings strategy, but it will have to be accompanied by significant improvements to daily lives. There will be no getting round those spending commitments.

Alistair

@Pulpstar did you ever work out what to do, here is my book

nichomar

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

The markets are clearly going through the same thought process; having risen to $1.35 after the exit poll, the £ has quickly sunk back to about $1.325

Since Thursday night I wanted, no prayed, that this time our new PM would deliver his one nation approach, demonstrate pragmatism and use his majority for the national good not the Tory good. He appears to be falling at the first fence I was willing to give him six months before judging progress but it’s not looking good.

DavidL

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

The only way that I see a comprehensive trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020 is a continuation of much of the transitional provisions indefinitely which is what the political declaration seems to contemplate. This would give us tariff free access to the SM with fairly broad agreement about equivalence of regulation. The price would have to be a large degree of alignment with the EU in terms of regulation.

We can only hope that Boris's majority is large enough to put that through. It is possible that Cummings has gamed this and seen a repeat of the nonsense that we had in the last Parliament with remainers constantly putting off the leaving date in the hope that it never happens except this time it would be ERG types seeking to prevent the deal on the basis that it amounts to some form of servitude or something equally ridiculous.

The problem is that the broader the agreement the more problematic and lengthy the approval process in each EU country is going to be. It seems unlikely to me that the EU will be able to hold together the degree of unanimity achieved in the Art 50 negotiations, especially if several EU countries are in recession. Will this put pressure on them? I am unconvinced.

The ERG might consider that after the election victory and the promises made during the campaign, the political price for resuming Tory silly buggeryness over Europe might be high.

I think so and all this one nation stuff from Boris himself points that way but rationality and the Tory Party are never close bed fellows when the subject is Europe. I think Boris is desperate to put this to bed and move on to his capital spending blitz but for many in his party it's a life time obsession.

SouthamObserver

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

The markets are clearly going through the same thought process; having risen to $1.35 after the exit poll, the £ has quickly sunk back to about $1.325

Johnson is very generously giving manufacturing and services businesses that do a lot of work inside the single market 11 months notice to quit.

WhisperingOracle

IanB2 said:

DavidL said:

The only way that I see a comprehensive trade deal with the EU by the end of 2020 is a continuation of much of the transitional provisions indefinitely which is what the political declaration seems to contemplate. This would give us tariff free access to the SM with fairly broad agreement about equivalence of regulation. The price would have to be a large degree of alignment with the EU in terms of regulation.

We can only hope that Boris's majority is large enough to put that through. It is possible that Cummings has gamed this and seen a repeat of the nonsense that we had in the last Parliament with remainers constantly putting off the leaving date in the hope that it never happens except this time it would be ERG types seeking to prevent the deal on the basis that it amounts to some form of servitude or something equally ridiculous.

The problem is that the broader the agreement the more problematic and lengthy the approval process in each EU country is going to be. It seems unlikely to me that the EU will be able to hold together the degree of unanimity achieved in the Art 50 negotiations, especially if several EU countries are in recession. Will this put pressure on them? I am unconvinced.

The ERG might consider that after the election victory and the promises made during the campaign, the political price for resuming Tory silly buggeryness over Europe might be high.

The problem is that Farage is continually waiting in the wings to reclaim the mantle of Farageism from the Faragist Tory party should they pivot closer to the centre, and the Tories are continually aware of this. This is why the situation is so dangerous.

If we have a soft Brexit and there is economic damage, there are a large number of people who will believe Farage's claim that it was because it was a treacherous Brexit and not sufficiently independent. If we have a hard Brexit with economic damage, many fewer people will believe this. Cummings may be operating on this - potentially disastrous - strategy to neutralise Farage.

A_View_From_Cumbria5

One of the correspondents on one of the cited chatter groups pointed out that Chris Bryant is not even a candidate for being a candidate. I have to say I think that is inspired thinking. If the object of this process is to find someone who will probably win more PMQs than he loses, clarify and rationalise party policy and show that the Labour Party in parliament is not entirely insane then yes, they would go for Chris Bryant. Perhaps they will go for him after the 2024 defeat.

Foxy

OldKingCole said:

Foxy said:

SouthamObserver said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

To be fair, they made their no extension strategy absolutely clear during the election campaign. A lot of people on here and elsewhere thought that they were just saying this. It was always pretty clear they meant it. The interesting bit will be how they manage the fall-out from taking this route. Deliberately harming the economy when you are promising big increases in public spending and no tax rises either means breaking those promises or going on a large-scale borrowing spree.

Yep, people voted for a deal done quickly, which can only mean either No Deal, Minimum Deal or Bad Deal. The latter is most likely. BoZo's Deal shows that it is fairly easy to draft a Bad Deal fairly quickly. In that Deal NI got shafted, but this time the shafting will be on the mainland.

Glad that I have a secure job and pension. A noticeable spike in headhunters emails over the last weeks.

To take you to which country? US? Aus?

New Zealand.

I worked there before. Nice country and Prime Minister.

squareroot2

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

One of the correspondents on one of the cited chatter groups pointed out that Chris Bryant is not even a candidate for being a candidate. I have to say I think that is inspired thinking. If the object of this process is to find someone who will probably win more PMQs than he loses, clarify and rationalise party policy and show that the Labour Party in parliament is not entirely insane then yes, they would go for Chris Bryant. Perhaps they will go for him after the 2024 defeat.

I think his backstory would be a field day for the Daily Mail.

Foxy

Alistair said:

@Pulpstar did you ever work out what to do, here is my book

Don't spend it all at once...

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

AlastairMeeks said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

There was never going to be a pivot to the centre. The coalition that Boris Johnson has constructed is based around Farageism. Look out for a government set to be dominated by social and economic illiberalism (with the EU to be continually blamed for everything that doesn’t go right) and a profound intolerance of pluralism, with a decent chance of good old-fashioned venality. Not so much Singapore-on-Thames as Budapest-on-Thames.

Politically it will no doubt be very successful. It’s worked in Hungary and Poland and it will work here.

Yep - along with our forthcoming loss of freedoms, we should expect a more powerful executive, subject to much less scrutiny and legal review. A lot of commentators who told us leaving the EU was all about liberty will spend the next few years justifying this. What Hungary and Poland have that we will not have, though, is membership of the Single Market and Customs Union, as well as populations who still remember when things were a lot worse. Othering will clearly be a perennial Johnson/Cummings strategy, but it will have to be accompanied by significant improvements to daily lives. There will be no getting round those spending commitments.

The Conservative party and then the country voted for strong man politics. There was no doubt that Boris would lie or act unlawfully to force his will. Well, you get what you pay for.

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

Well, it is a bit annoying to have to work for a degree when at Oxford you can buy it for four guineas.

Perhaps your old university should use market forces and undercut Oxford,

Are you suggesting they should go for £2.50 for an MA?

Chris

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

It's also a repetition of Johnson's utterly crass do or die/die in a ditch blunder, but this time in circumstances where there is absolutely nothing to force an error.

Sheer, bone-headed stupidity.

YBarddCwsc

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Thank God for Oxford University, so much better than Cambridge which produced a lot of traitors.

Oxford also gave us Dominic Cummings and Mark Reckless.

I wondered how long it would take someone to bite. Usually its Cambridge alumni.. Did you go to Cambridge

Certainly not. I was at a proper university.

Aberystwyth gave us Mostyn Neil Hamilton. (Cambridge share the honours, as he did a postgraduate course at Corpus Christi).

squareroot2

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

Well, it is a bit annoying to have to work for a degree when at Oxford you can buy it for four guineas.

Perhaps your old university should use market forces and undercut Oxford,

Are you suggesting they should go for £2.50 for an MA?

Far be it for me to set a market rate, but the benchmark is there...

Jonathan

Chris said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

It's also a repetition of Johnson's utterly crass do or die/die in a ditch blunder, but this time in circumstances where there is absolutely nothing to force an error.

Sheer, bone-headed stupidity.

Well, to them it worked. Maybe it will again. Or perhaps, now unchecked or moderated, they will believe they own hype and their arrogance will get the better of them and us.

ydoethur

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Thank God for Oxford University, so much better than Cambridge which produced a lot of traitors.

Oxford also gave us Dominic Cummings and Mark Reckless.

I wondered how long it would take someone to bite. Usually its Cambridge alumni.. Did you go to Cambridge

Certainly not. I was at a proper university.

Aberystwyth gave us Mostyn Neil Hamilton. (Cambridge share the honours, as he did a postgraduate course at Corpus Christi).

I was hoping nobody would mention him...

SouthamObserver

A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:

One of the correspondents on one of the cited chatter groups pointed out that Chris Bryant is not even a candidate for being a candidate. I have to say I think that is inspired thinking. If the object of this process is to find someone who will probably win more PMQs than he loses, clarify and rationalise party policy and show that the Labour Party in parliament is not entirely insane then yes, they would go for Chris Bryant. Perhaps they will go for him after the 2024 defeat.

My guess is that Johnson will find a way to avoid a lot of PMQs, as well as any select committee hearings he is supposed to attend.

Jonathan

Oxford should pay the nation reparations for the dud politicians, Cambridge should pay equal reparations for Footlights.

ydoethur

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

Well, it is a bit annoying to have to work for a degree when at Oxford you can buy it for four guineas.

Perhaps your old university should use market forces and undercut Oxford,

Are you suggesting they should go for £2.50 for an MA?

Far be it for me to set a market rate, but the benchmark is there...

Yes, but my MA is an actual degree, not a piece of paper with some funny writing in a dead language on it.* So it’s worth more than four guineas...

Have a good day.

*Cue jokes about the fact it’s in Welsh.

SandyRentool

So Thornberry reckoned our problem was that we weren't Remainy enough.

That must have been the feedback from her Islington supper party focus group.

DecrepiterJohnL

Something else that might or might not have changed. Here is Stanley Baldwin on the importance of the old school tie:
When the call came for me to form a government, one of my first thoughts was that it should be a government of which Harrow should not be ashamed. I remembered how in previous governments there had been four, or perhaps five Harrovians, and I was determined to have six.

alex_

Foxy said:

Alistair said:

@Pulpstar did you ever work out what to do, here is my book

Don't spend it all at once...

From little acorns... looks like a classic book for a “lay the front runner” strategy. Although to be fair that is probably more profitable on football manager markets.

kamski

AlastairMeeks said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

There was never going to be a pivot to the centre. The coalition that Boris Johnson has constructed is based around Farageism. Look out for a government set to be dominated by social and economic illiberalism (with the EU to be continually blamed for everything that doesn’t go right) and a profound intolerance of pluralism, with a decent chance of good old-fashioned venality. Not so much Singapore-on-Thames as Budapest-on-Thames.

Politically it will no doubt be very successful. It’s worked in Hungary and Poland and it will work here.

Depressingly, I fear this is true. Remember all those saying that Trump once elected would "pivot"? Johnson himself was saying Trump is really just a typical New York liberal (which brought to mind Zaphod Beeblebrox's brain-care specialist saying "Zaphod's just this guy, you know")
Johnson is probably going to be the same as Trump and/or Beeblebrox.

OnlyLivingBoy

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

The markets are clearly going through the same thought process; having risen to $1.35 after the exit poll, the £ has quickly sunk back to about $1.325

GBP's initial response to the Tory victory was certainly an obvious selling opportunity.

DecrepiterJohnL

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

ydoethur said:

squareroot2 said:

Jonathan said:

Mike appears to be arguing that Oxford pay reparations.

Always rather sad that Oxford/Cambridge alumni seem to get stuck, never quite progressing from where they went to college. Always mentioning it as if it should matter.

Well it only matters inasmuch as those who did not go there seem rather jealous (inwardly if not outwardly) of those who did.

Well, it is a bit annoying to have to work for a degree when at Oxford you can buy it for four guineas.

Perhaps your old university should use market forces and undercut Oxford,

Are you suggesting they should go for £2.50 for an MA?

Far be it for me to set a market rate, but the benchmark is there...

Yes, but my MA is an actual degree, not a piece of paper with some funny writing in a dead language on it.* So it’s worth more than four guineas...

Have a good day.

*Cue jokes about the fact it’s in Welsh.

That strange creole -- Boris Johnson.

StuartDickson

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

Ian Murray refuses to rule out running for leader or depute leader of the Labour Party.

He kind of backed Richard Leonard staying on as Scottish leader (half-heartedly), and effectively said that he will not run for the newly-vacant Scottish depute leader position (defeated former Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland Lesley Laird resigned yesterday, after losing Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath).

Aargh! Yanks run, normal people stand.

American English has won. I gave up caring about a decade ago.

AlastairMeeks

Boris Johnson once again casually betraying those who relied on his word:

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1206825958797463552

squareroot2

Jonathan said:

Oxford should pay the nation reparations for the dud politicians, Cambridge should pay equal reparations for Footlights.

I think Oxford has been pretty successful, a few mistakes(, Atlee Blair and Wilson), otherwise its been pretty good.

Philip_Thompson

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

Of course it won't. They want Brexit "done" quickly, the last thing they want is the negotiations still going on when the next election is called, even if that would be best for the economy. They will attempt a quick and limited deal on their terms, and if the EU won't accept their terms then it's "WTO" Brexit at year-end, with a hope that the economy can recover from the inevitable crash by 2024. People assume that because Cummings is smart he will also be pragmatic, which I think is a mistake. Strap in!

The markets are clearly going through the same thought process; having risen to $1.35 after the exit poll, the £ has quickly sunk back to about $1.325

Since Thursday night I wanted, no prayed, that this time our new PM would deliver his one nation approach, demonstrate pragmatism and use his majority for the national good not the Tory good. He appears to be falling at the first fence I was willing to give him six months before judging progress but it’s not looking good.

I'm sure he can live without your support.

alex_

Jonathan said:

Chris said:

WhisperingOracle said:

This story about Johnson and Cummings outlawing an extension next year is extremely significant.

It may mean that this new pragmatic face people were hoping from them next year on the negotiations may not materialise.

It's also a repetition of Johnson's utterly crass do or die/die in a ditch blunder, but this time in circumstances where there is absolutely nothing to force an error.

Sheer, bone-headed stupidity.

Well, to them it worked. Maybe it will again. Or perhaps, now unchecked or moderated, they will believe they own hype and their arrogance will get the better of them and us.

Last time he had the Opposition to bail him out.