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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for my 200/1 tip on Ed Miliband succeeding Corbyn

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  • “Every pollster has underestimated SNP support.” (BBC)
  • We can drive from the English border to Holyhead without going through a labour constituency. Just amazing performance in North Wales
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Ipswich Con gain
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Hymdburn ?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Grieve thinks he’s lost. Good riddance
  • humbugger said:

    Grieve effectively conceding. Blames Corbyn.

    PODGWAS
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    Bye bye to Helen Goodman
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    edited December 2019

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    Apparently Swinson is sitting in the car park outside the count, but not going in.

    I mean, that's not a good sign.

    Trying to tie her girl guide toggle.
    Putting on the non-run mascara.....
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    the SNP exit poll plus on ITV has gone up to 56. Any chance of them getting all 59?
  • Jonathan said:

    Ed started Labour down this path. He was clearly not ready to lead, but let his ego get the better of him. He made it ok within the party to trash the record of the previous government. He managed to lose the 2015 election and his greatest achievement the £3 membership paved the way to entryism.

    Harsh but it's hard to disagree.

    Still, for all his faults he's a decent Labour figure, and (a bit like William Hague) he's grown with bitter experience.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Bishop Auckland solidly blue
  • Bishop Auckland falls to Con
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569
    IanB2 said:

    Labour vote share in London so far is actually down. Tory share is down more.

    Swing from both to LD. It will be interesting to see how this applies in the Western Suburbs.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    IanB2 said:

    Labour vote share in London so far is actually down. Tory share is down more.

    That's what happens if your voters move elsewhere.
  • Bishop Auckland confirmed Tory gain.
  • Brom said:

    Grieve thinks he’s lost. Good riddance

    At last he got his meaningful vote!!!
  • “Every pollster has underestimated SNP support.” (BBC)

    Well, now.
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019
    Barnsley Central had a 27% swing Labour to Brexit.
    How will Yvette Cooper do ?
  • BBC constituency pages are now dropping well behind.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755
    Anyone seen any numbers for Perth and North Perthshire.
  • Grieve graceless as usual. Good riddance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Redditch Con hold
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    “Every pollster has underestimated SNP support.” (BBC)

    Yet so many here said it is always the opposite.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Smeeth confirms she has lost lol
  • IanB2 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
    The liberal democrats are tories.

    They gave us cameron.
    they gave us austerity.
    they betrayed students
    they gave us brexit.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    Ynys Môn a good result for the Cons
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited December 2019

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205318475218137089?s=20

    Hold on that is Shaun Bailey who has won that. That mean he won't stand for Mayor in London.

    Perhaps Boris can get Rory the Tory back in the tent.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922

    IanB2 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
    The liberal democrats are tories.

    They gave us cameron.
    they gave us austerity.
    they betrayed students
    they gave us brexit.
    The election was yesterday.
  • Burnley: LibDems third. Kerching!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    I was at Aber with the candidate Shaun Bailey, well done him
  • IanB2 said:

    Labour vote share in London so far is actually down. Tory share is down more.

    The Evening Standard Lib Dem cover wrap around from Tuesday begging remainers to back the strong remain party
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Floater said:

    Smeeth confirms she has lost lol

    And calls for Corbyn to go
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,038

    IanB2 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
    The liberal democrats are tories.

    They gave us cameron.
    they gave us austerity.
    they betrayed students
    they gave us brexit.
    So surely their voters would choose to vote Tory over Labour
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Only one more gain for LAB tonight = Chipping Barnet
    Think we are OK in Harrow W
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,755
    humbugger said:

    Grieve graceless as usual. Good riddance.

    Yep. Hopefully the last time we have to hear from him.
  • IanB2 said:

    “Every pollster has underestimated SNP support.” (BBC)

    Yet so many here said it is always the opposite.
    Well, most folk around here don’t have the faintest scoobie about Scotland.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846

    IanB2 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
    The liberal democrats are tories.

    They gave us cameron.
    they gave us austerity.
    they betrayed students
    they gave us brexit.
    Then they are doing you a favour by standing in elections.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484

    IanB2 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
    The liberal democrats are tories.

    They gave us cameron.
    they gave us austerity.
    they betrayed students
    they gave us brexit.
    Not having a good night?
  • SNP GAIN Midlothian from SLab
  • Jonathan said:

    'Would be apt given his reforms allowed Corbyn to become Labour leader' - I'd be interested in the argument for this. All sections (not just the registered supporters) voted Corbyn, and Miliband's reforms were pushed by the Right of the party to weaken the union vote. It was a David Miliband 'Movement for Change' style approach.

    Did you notice that Labour's share is down in Remain seats. Your thesis that this is Brexit is plain wrong.
    We'll see what the shifts are after. It clearly isn't by faction of thevMP as you said.

    I can easily imagine Labour getting squeezed in both. Most Remain voters who aren't active EUphiles are lukewarm on a second referendum, and those that are I could see going for more strident pro-Remain parties for understandable reasons.

    The real catastrophe is in 'old Labour' Leave seats so far, and a position similar to 2017 with no threat of a second referendum might have mitigated this disaster.
  • llefllef Posts: 301

    Con gain Ynys Mon! Yes!

    Maj 2k. Swing 10% Lab to Con.

    a kensington blow-in....marvellous.
  • dr_spyn said:


    Tory gain Bishop Auckland.

    Kerching!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Antrim North DUP hold
  • twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205318475218137089?s=20

    Hold on that is Shaun Bailey who has won that. That mean he won't stand for Mayor in London.

    Perhaps Boris can get Rory the Tory back in the tent.
    Interesting move if he can.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Smeeth tearing Corbyn and Formby a new one
  • twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1205317777877295104?s=20

    What the bloody hell was Jezza doing in the seats he visited?
  • rcs1000 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    Yes, because all libdem voters are really Labour voters
    Lib Dem members are unhappy Labour, Lib Dem voters are unhappy Tories
  • DavidL said:

    Anyone seen any numbers for Perth and North Perthshire.

    Yes. SNP Maj 7000
  • DavidL said:

    Anyone seen any numbers for Perth and North Perthshire.

    https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1205318363960037377
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IanB2 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
    The liberal democrats are tories.

    They gave us cameron.
    they gave us austerity.
    they betrayed students
    they gave us brexit.
    So why the fuck would they stand aside to help Labour? Are you a parody account?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    edited December 2019
    Cities of London & Westminster:

    Con 17,049
    LD 13,096
    Lab 11,624
    Grn 728
    Lib 101
    CPA 125
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605

    Jonathan said:

    'Would be apt given his reforms allowed Corbyn to become Labour leader' - I'd be interested in the argument for this. All sections (not just the registered supporters) voted Corbyn, and Miliband's reforms were pushed by the Right of the party to weaken the union vote. It was a David Miliband 'Movement for Change' style approach.

    Did you notice that Labour's share is down in Remain seats. Your thesis that this is Brexit is plain wrong.
    We'll see what the shifts are after. It clearly isn't by faction of thevMP as you said.

    I can easily imagine Labour getting squeezed in both. Most Remain voters who aren't active EUphiles are lukewarm on a second referendum, and those that are I could see going for more strident pro-Remain parties for understandable reasons.

    The real catastrophe is in 'old Labour' Leave seats so far, and a position similar to 2017 with no threat of a second referendum might have mitigated this disaster.
    You're prepared to consider any theory except the one starring you in the face. Corbyn was toxic.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    dr_spyn said:
    Amid the carnage, everyone should take a moment to seee how Labour some of these (now former) Labour seats have been. Bishop Auckland has been Labour since 1918.
  • That’s the best marginals data vis I’ve seen.

  • Gabs3Gabs3 Posts: 836
    Ruth Smeeth: "Labour is now the racist party."
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Chuka had a meltdown and not turned up?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,846
    Chuka loses to the Tories, another wacky HY prediction bites the dust
  • Where's Chuka?
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981
    edited December 2019

    “Every pollster has underestimated SNP support.” (BBC)

    Not really, Mori had it bang on.
    Yougov overestimated Labour in Scotland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682
    Cities of London and Westminster
    Tory hold Chuka 2nd
  • Chuka is gone :smile:
  • Bye Bye Chuka....
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Bye, Chuka!
  • Perth and n Perthshire
    SNP 27,362
    Con 19,812
    LD 3,780
    Lab 2,471
  • twitter.com/ian_a_jones/status/1205317777877295104?s=20

    What the bloody hell was Jezza doing in the seats he visited?
    This is like that time that Labour grandees were dispatched to Scotland in 2015, and they lost every single seat they visited.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Exit poll had Cities + Westminster as Labour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,484
    edited December 2019
    Chuka chucked by the voters.....
  • Brom said:

    Grieve thinks he’s lost. Good riddance

    “We’ll see what Mr Grieve is right about...”

    Classic Dom.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    bye Chukka!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,605
    Chuka Can't
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Majority of 8k in Bishop Aukland. lol
  • TheGreenMachineTheGreenMachine Posts: 1,077
    edited December 2019
    Northern Ireland Update.

    Belfast West : Paul Maskey (Sinn Fein) re-elected but vote count down significantly.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Good news City of London

    Chuka Can't!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,702
    Lansman talking about swing to Lab in Liverpool!

    LOL
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,089
    Con hold Cities :)
  • IanB2 said:

    I think we will get to 100 seats that labour have lost or potentially won because of the liberal democrat existence.

    It would be electorally more sensible for Labour to disband, since a majority of their voters would choose a sensible centre party over the Tories. If the LibDems disbanded their votes would split between the two parties.

    Your simultaneously accusing the LibDems of being Tories then expecting them all to prefer Labour makes no sense at all.
    The liberal democrats are tories.

    They gave us cameron.
    they gave us austerity.
    they betrayed students
    they gave us brexit.
    This has to be trolling.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,922
    Pulpstar said:

    Con hold Cities :)

    Now, onto Kensington!
  • speedy2speedy2 Posts: 981

    Chuka is gone :smile:

    There goes the SDP mark II.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    Chuka chucked by the voters.....

    And no payout!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    tlg86 said:

    Ynys Mon not good for Yougov MRP.

    was Con gain in first MRP I think.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    edited December 2019
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,038
    Andy_JS said:

    Cities of London & Westminster:

    Con 17,049
    LD 13,096
    Lab 11,624
    Grn 728
    Lib 101
    CPA 125

    No, that's a mistake. I saw the exit poll. Labour won that seat.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,682

    twitter.com/britainelects/status/1205318475218137089?s=20

    Hold on that is Shaun Bailey who has won that. That mean he won't stand for Mayor in London.

    Perhaps Boris can get Rory the Tory back in the tent.
    No a different Shaun Bailey
  • The Saj vs Brillo
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,569

    SNP GAIN Midlothian from SLab

    Has any Scottish seat not declared SNP yet?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Con hold Cities :)

    Kerching!

    (Pity about Chuka, though).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,322
    CHUKA got the CHUK.
  • Labour and Lib Dem spokeswomen on BBC Scotland losing the rag. Losers losing badly. Not a good look.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,152

    tlg86 said:

    Ynys Mon not good for Yougov MRP.

    was Con gain in first MRP I think.
    It was the one seat that they had a clear Tory to Lab swing in the second edition.
This discussion has been closed.