Well Brexit has driven him bonkers.....its not about Party anymore.
The number of remainers on twitter who have been driven almost insane (and in many cases not metaphorically) astounds me.
How can you love an artificial institution so much? It is as creepy as it is baffling.
Very few remainers love the EU institutions. For plenty of us it is the way we have Brexited that is the problem not that we are doing so.
F Business, experts know nothing, judges are the enemies of the people, the us and them with the metropolitan "elite" to describe people renting a room in a shared house but happen to vote remain, nonsense about migration and immigrants. Those are the reasons many of us have been driven almost insane, finding out our compatriots care nothing for British values and British institutions such as parliament, the judiciary, that we believe in.
Looks like Workington at 1pm could be the 1st key seat to watch.
1pm Thursday or Friday?
The first NE seats will be interesting as they will give a feel of how well Labours vote is holding up.
Can`t wait for next week: Thursday/Friday GE, then Saturday I fly out skiing. What a week!
I haven't been skiing since a school trip in 1995 to Austria. Funny how you don't get round to doing things sometimes that you assumed at the time you would do again within a couple of years at the most.
Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.
Assuming the Conservatives win, I expect the next round of local elections will be torrid.
2019 will be the election the Conservatives wish they'd never won. There will be a recession in the next five years, and (rightly or wrongly) their handling of Brexit will get the blame.
We will also see house prices down meaningfully (15-20%) in nominal terms. The young won't thank the Conservatives, and the old will be livid.
Johnson will turn out to be just the man you don't want in charge for this. But having remodeled the Conservative Party in his own image, he'll prove difficult to shift.
If the Labour Party have chosen a moderate as their leader, this won't matter too much. But if they manage to pick Corbyn 2.0 (younger, fitter, less economically sane), then the country will lurch to the hard Left in 2024, and it will all be pretty horrible.
It's a good thing I don't own any overpriced London real estate... oh wait...
That's what people said about 2010 & 2015! Labour shrewdly getting the lot by "losing"
It's mrty.
Yes but what is the counter-factual for house prices, unemployment, inflation, the pound etc. under a Corbyn government? Who can know? But on a Treasury macro-economic model, I imagine it would be close to the 'worse-case' scenario.
Oh sure.
But if Labour got in now in coalition with the SNP, they'd probably end up only lasting a couple of years and they'd get the blame for the long term structural issues with the UK economy.
Your predictions are way too pessimistic. It is equally possible that the UK economy, having lingered in Brexit stasis for eternity, will pick up steam once the exit has been made, and Boris (I am guessing) steers the country to a fairly soft landing.
Remember, people want to invest in Britain. They want to buy British property. Students are flooding in as Boris is liberalising the regime. They all need housing.
There are already tentative signs that Prime London Property is bubbling again. Prices are gently perking up. And I am now old enough to remember this cycle well. I was the first on PB to note the initial, small property price recovery after the Crash. It feels very similar now, but it DOES depend on a solid Tory majority.
Wow looks like I missed an entire scandal's life cycle in the space of a lunch break.
Fwiw I just listened to the clip and it's definitely talent, you can hear the t at the end. In any case it's too unsubtle for Boris to say something like that, indeed when I first saw someone quote the phrase I presumed it was said by Pat Mountain or equivalent.
There are multiple clips though. In this one it certainly does sound like talent. In the other one that was posted, it's definitely colour, with no hint of a 't' at the start or end. It's all very strange.
Can't you see that's because the audio quality was much worse on that version? The audio wasn't coming directly from the microphone, and there were lots of sounds from the audience like the sound of cameras.
The quality of the audio in the other clip isn't that bad. I'm not sure what to believe. After the BBC apparently covered up Boris's wreath-laying faux pas, it doesn't seem such a stretch of the imagination to suspect them of a little bit of audio manipulation.
Channel 4 were the people to publicise it in the first place, and they've admitted they got it wrong. Does that convince you?
Probably scared of losing their remit. They've been warned once.
Cant believe Keir Starmer tweeted the colour/talent Channel 4 video claiming it said colour. Appalling.
Was he man enough to leave up the incorrect tweets with an apology, or did he try to get away with just deleting?
Can't see any apology on his twitter, but I didn't see his PoC tweets either. I did see ChukaEgg's tweets though, and he's just deleted them without acknowledgement or apology.
Just by the law of averages, we will almost certainly see a recession between now and 2024.
Demographics are such that we're at a tipping point where the number of people looking for smaller homes is going to bigger than those looking to expand. Combine that with with reduced net immigration and a large number of new build properties coming on the market, particularly in London, and I think you have a perfect storm for UK property.
We need lower house prices in London and the South East. For me this is one of the few probable benefits of Brexit.
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
Free Sky Sports, scarp student debt & bung in a couple of weeks extra holidays & he's done it.
I am genuinely surprised they haven't offered radical rewriting of the sports rights rules. If you are going to put a radical manifesto together, why not throw in EPL matches must be free on BBC.
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
The debate tonight is one of the best chances to change things.
The debate tonight will be the first time the public hears about Labour's plan to rig a 2nd referendum and all future General Elections by adding millions of non-citizens to the voter rolls.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
Cant believe Keir Starmer tweeted the colour/talent Channel 4 video claiming it said colour. Appalling.
Was he man enough to leave up the incorrect tweets with an apology, or did he try to get away with just deleting?
Can't see any apology on his twitter, but I didn't see his PoC tweets either. I did see ChukaEgg's tweets though, and he's just deleted them without acknowledgement or apology.
It's a good idea. As I said before, if the first 20 or 30 results are in line with the MRP forecast it's very likely that it'll be accurate for the others as long as the first 30 results aren't all from the same region.
The early ones do tend to be safe (or formerly safe!) Labour seats from the north-east, but by about 1am we should get a bit more variety (Basildon & Billericay, Broxbourne etc)
Swindon normally gives a good hint about the state of the nation I think ?
I think Joshua wins but I'm not backing him at 4-9.
Interestingly with Swindon I know a few Conservative voters down there who are specifically voting some other way because of Justin Tomlinson. The Wonga episode is seen by many as being symptomatic of his behaviour. It won't cost him the seat but it will certainly cost a few votes.
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
It is possible but i'm struggling to see how it happens.
Some awful revelation about Boris?
Scrapping tuition fees and refunding those who have paid?
I can't think of many other things that will turn the dial enough.
Over the last couple of weeks there were several things that had the potential to, but didn't, e.g.the NATO summit. Labour are out of road now, excepting for the possibility that enough voters will recoil from the prospect of a large Johnson majority to vote differently once they're in the polling booth. It could happen, but I think not to the extent required.
Cant believe Keir Starmer tweeted the colour/talent Channel 4 video claiming it said colour. Appalling.
Was he man enough to leave up the incorrect tweets with an apology, or did he try to get away with just deleting?
Can't see any apology on his twitter, but I didn't see his PoC tweets either. I did see ChukaEgg's tweets though, and he's just deleted them without acknowledgement or apology.
Shameless
The flip side of the internet always remembers problem is that if enough internet users fuck up, then indeed the internet doesn't remember.
Looks like Workington at 1pm could be the 1st key seat to watch.
1pm Thursday or Friday?
The first NE seats will be interesting as they will give a feel of how well Labours vote is holding up.
Can`t wait for next week: Thursday/Friday GE, then Saturday I fly out skiing. What a week!
Was that booked in the off chance Jezza becomes PM and you can escape with as much cash as possible before he seizes it?
No, but I`m hoping that my GE bets pay for my lift pass
Mrs U has given me stern warning not to go all Ryder Cup again....it was only the big UFC fight that year which saved us from having to drink Prosecco for Christmas lunch!
Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.
Unfortunately, despite 'other alternatives are available', its likely they'd just hold their nose and vote for the other one.
And therefore, Johnson will get his majority.
You're assuming that Boris Johnson is the preferred choice of those who dislike both.
Yes. Yes I am Alastair. I wish it were not so, but I think that is where we will end up. With a leader who is disliked slightly less than Corbyn.
It's been a pretty terrible election. Roll on 2024.
Looks like Workington at 1pm could be the 1st key seat to watch.
1pm Thursday or Friday?
The first NE seats will be interesting as they will give a feel of how well Labours vote is holding up.
Can`t wait for next week: Thursday/Friday GE, then Saturday I fly out skiing. What a week!
Was that booked in the off chance Jezza becomes PM and you can escape with as much cash as possible before he seizes it?
No, but I`m hoping that my GE bets pay for my lift pass
Mrs U has given me stern warning not to go all Ryder Cup again....it was only the big UFC fight that year which saved us from having to drink Prosecco for Christmas lunch!
Wow looks like I missed an entire scandal's life cycle in the space of a lunch break.
Fwiw I just listened to the clip and it's definitely talent, you can hear the t at the end. In any case it's too unsubtle for Boris to say something like that, indeed when I first saw someone quote the phrase I presumed it was said by Pat Mountain or equivalent.
There are multiple clips though. In this one it certainly does sound like talent. In the other one that was posted, it's definitely colour, with no hint of a 't' at the start or end. It's all very strange.
Can't you see that's because the audio quality was much worse on that version? The audio wasn't coming directly from the microphone, and there were lots of sounds from the audience like the sound of cameras.
The quality of the audio in the other clip isn't that bad. I'm not sure what to believe. After the BBC apparently covered up Boris's wreath-laying faux pas, it doesn't seem such a stretch of the imagination to suspect them of a little bit of audio manipulation.
Channel 4 were the people to publicise it in the first place, and they've admitted they got it wrong. Does that convince you?
Probably scared of losing their remit. They've been warned once.
Neither is exactly admired by any criterion, but the most striking contrast is the Good leader/Bad leader rating:
Boris 36% Good leader, 41% Bad leader Corbyn 16% Good leader, 57% Bad leader
Mmm, but Corbyn is ahead (in the sense of less bad) on most of the other criteria. Classically Tories lead on "competence/leadership" and Labour leaders win on "empathy/understands people like me" (CorbynJohnson -19/-30). I think Johnson does convey an impression of dynamism which Corbyn's judicious replies lack, but people mostly don't actually like what Johnson says.
As in other polls, the gap for gender and age is gigantic - we're used to age correlating with conservatism, but I've never seen an age split quite like it.
We have never had a country where the retired own such a big share of the capital and the workers own so little. So its still just those with capital vote Tory and those without vote Labour seen along age rather than class.
Possibly Japan. A country with such an aging population it tried (and failed?) to develop robot nurses to tend the elderly. It's not perhaps an approach to emulate...
Indeed, we simply need immigration because of our demographics and therefore will have it. All Brexit will have changed is to move the immigration from Europe to Africa and Asia and made immigrants here feel less welcome. Many of those with "talent" will go somewhere else and be replaced with those with fewer options available to them.
and when the immigrants get old themselves do we make them leave? or do we then need even more immigration to take care of the even higher aged population? do we ever hit equilibrium?
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
Neither is exactly admired by any criterion, but the most striking contrast is the Good leader/Bad leader rating:
Boris 36% Good leader, 41% Bad leader Corbyn 16% Good leader, 57% Bad leader
Mmm, but Corbyn is ahead (in the sense of less bad) on most of the other criteria. Classically Tories lead on "competence/leadership" and Labour leaders win on "empathy/understands people like me" (CorbynJohnson -19/-30). I think Johnson does convey an impression of dynamism which Corbyn's judicious replies lack, but people mostly don't actually like what Johnson says.
As in other polls, the gap for gender and age is gigantic - we're used to age correlating with conservatism, but I've never seen an age split quite like it.
We have never had a country where the retired own such a big share of the capital and the workers own so little. So its still just those with capital vote Tory and those without vote Labour seen along age rather than class.
Possibly Japan. A country with such an aging population it tried (and failed?) to develop robot nurses to tend the elderly. It's not perhaps an approach to emulate...
Indeed, we simply need immigration because of our demographics and therefore will have it. All Brexit will have changed is to move the immigration from Europe to Africa and Asia and made immigrants here feel less welcome. Many of those with "talent" will go somewhere else and be replaced with those with fewer options available to them.
and when the immigrants get old themselves do we make them leave? or do we then need even more immigration to take care of the even higher aged population? do we ever hit equilibrium?
Got it in one. We need to be able to organise around a stable population where life expectancy is mid eighties, and work doesn't start for most until 21.
They could have done and in the past they almost certainly would have done. But in the age of Twitter - who cares about the truth? The key output metric is whether a Twitter-mob can be whipped up.
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
The debate tonight is one of the best chances to change things.
The debate tonight will be the first time the public hears about Labour's plan to rig a 2nd referendum and all future General Elections by adding millions of non-citizens to the voter rolls.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
Like the commonwealth and Irish citizens who have the right to vote, what is being proposed is not as radical as you think. You only disagree with it because you think it harms Tory chances. If they wanted to restrict it to over 30’s and property owners you would secretly welcome it.
Neither is exactly admired by any criterion, but the most striking contrast is the Good leader/Bad leader rating:
Boris 36% Good leader, 41% Bad leader Corbyn 16% Good leader, 57% Bad leader
Mmm, but Corbyn is ahead (in the sense of less bad) on most of the other criteria. Classically Tories lead on "competence/leadership" and Labour leaders win on "empathy/understands people like me" (CorbynJohnson -19/-30). I think Johnson does convey an impression of dynamism which Corbyn's judicious replies lack, but people mostly don't actually like what Johnson says.
As in other polls, the gap for gender and age is gigantic - we're used to age correlating with conservatism, but I've never seen an age split quite like it.
We have never had a country where the retired own such a big share of the capital and the workers own so little. So its still just those with capital vote Tory and those without vote Labour seen along age rather than class.
Possibly Japan. A country with such an aging population it tried (and failed?) to develop robot nurses to tend the elderly. It's not perhaps an approach to emulate...
Indeed, we simply need immigration because of our demographics and therefore will have it. All Brexit will have changed is to move the immigration from Europe to Africa and Asia and made immigrants here feel less welcome. Many of those with "talent" will go somewhere else and be replaced with those with fewer options available to them.
and when the immigrants get old themselves do we make them leave? or do we then need even more immigration to take care of the even higher aged population? do we ever hit equilibrium?
You mean the Singapore method? Arrive, work for decades, retire, get deported the following day?
I am sure there are some who would love to have it work that way
There are mountains of ammunition for both Corbyn and Boris to use against each other on the debate tonight. I predict a seriously ill-tempered slanging match, which will suit Boris down to the ground. Still, unless Boris calls for the re-introduction of slavery, or Corbyn calls for the re-opening of Auschwitz, I don't expect it will make one jot of difference to the outcome of the election.
and when the immigrants get old themselves do we make them leave? or do we then need even more immigration to take care of the even higher aged population? do we ever hit equilibrium?
There are mountains of ammunition for both Corbyn and Boris to use against each other on the debate tonight. I predict a seriously ill-tempered slanging match, which will suit Boris down to the ground. Still, unless Boris calls for the re-introduction of slavery, or Corbyn calls for the re-opening of Auschwitz, I don't expect it will make one jot of difference to the outcome of the election.
I wouldn't be surprised if Jezza has another document off reddit to wave about.
Betfair Con Maj price holding steady at 1.40, despite everything today and my betting £400 on it yesterday.
Given that it requires only half a dozen net gains (one of which will be Buckingham) and the polls show roughly a 4-5 point swing in the Conservatives’ favour, and especially so in marginal seats, can anyone see how this isn’t huge value if Johnson doesn’t completely f*** up the debate tonight?
Neither is exactly admired by any criterion, but the most striking contrast is the Good leader/Bad leader rating:
Boris 36% Good leader, 41% Bad leader Corbyn 16% Good leader, 57% Bad leader
Mmm, but Corbyn is ahead (in the sense of less bad) on most of the other criteria. Classically Tories lead on "competence/leadership" and Labour leaders win on "empathy/understands people like me" (CorbynJohnson -19/-30). I think Johnson does convey an impression of dynamism which Corbyn's judicious replies lack, but people mostly don't actually like what Johnson says.
As in other polls, the gap for gender and age is gigantic - we're used to age correlating with conservatism, but I've never seen an age split quite like it.
We have never had a country where the retired own such a big share of the capital and the workers own so little. So its still just those with capital vote Tory and those without vote Labour seen along age rather than class.
Possibly Japan. A country with such an aging population it tried (and failed?) to develop robot nurses to tend the elderly. It's not perhaps an approach to emulate...
Indeed, we simply need immigration because of our demographics and therefore will have it. All Brexit will have changed is to move the immigration from Europe to Africa and Asia and made immigrants here feel less welcome. Many of those with "talent" will go somewhere else and be replaced with those with fewer options available to them.
and when the immigrants get old themselves do we make them leave? or do we then need even more immigration to take care of the even higher aged population? do we ever hit equilibrium?
It simply depends on how many children we have and how long people live. We have chosen to have fewer and fewer children and people are living longer so you end up with more older people and fewer young ones. Its nothing complicated. The only short term solution is immigration. Longer term we could have policies that encourage people to have more kids, but the current trends are making it harder for people to do that as the young have loads of debt, low earnings and poor access to own family homes.
This is what Keir Starmer tweeted before deleting it:
"Keir Starmer (Labour) tweeted : This is extraordinary. It exposes Johnson’s contempt for everyone other than his own elite. twitter.com/channel4news/s…
Keir StarmerDeleted about 4 hours ago after 2 minutes, tweeted using Twitter for iPhone"
"Diane Abbott (Labour) tweeted : Some of us argued that the permanent Tory campaign against migrants was nothing more than dog whistle politics. Unfortunately, in the middle of a general election campaign, Boris Johnson proved we were right
Diane AbbottDeleted about 4 hours ago after 43 minutes, tweeted using Twitter Web App"
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
The debate tonight is one of the best chances to change things.
The debate tonight will be the first time the public hears about Labour's plan to rig a 2nd referendum and all future General Elections by adding millions of non-citizens to the voter rolls.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
Like the commonwealth and Irish citizens who have the right to vote, what is being proposed is not as radical as you think. You only disagree with it because you think it harms Tory chances. If they wanted to restrict it to over 30’s and property owners you would secretly welcome it.
Tell that to Leavers and the right-of-centre, not to mention centrists who disapprove of vote-rigging. It will absolutely ENRAGE them.
Betfair Con Maj price holding steady at 1.40, despite everything today and my betting £400 on it yesterday.
Given that it requires only half a dozen net gains (one of which will be Buckingham) and the polls show roughly a 4-5 point swing in the Conservatives’ favour, and especially so in marginal seats, can anyone see how this isn’t huge value if Johnson doesn’t completely f*** up the debate tonight?
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
The debate tonight is one of the best chances to change things.
The debate tonight will be the first time the public hears about Labour's plan to rig a 2nd referendum and all future General Elections by adding millions of non-citizens to the voter rolls.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
Like the commonwealth and Irish citizens who have the right to vote, what is being proposed is not as radical as you think. You only disagree with it because you think it harms Tory chances. If they wanted to restrict it to over 30’s and property owners you would secretly welcome it.
Let's see what Labour leave voters think of Corbyn's cunning plan to further erase their vote in 2016. I have a sneaky feeling they won't like it.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
They also predicted 2017 when few other signs did.
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
The debate tonight is one of the best chances to change things.
The debate tonight will be the first time the public hears about Labour's plan to rig a 2nd referendum and all future General Elections by adding millions of non-citizens to the voter rolls.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
Like the commonwealth and Irish citizens who have the right to vote, what is being proposed is not as radical as you think. You only disagree with it because you think it harms Tory chances. If they wanted to restrict it to over 30’s and property owners you would secretly welcome it.
Let's see what Labour leave voters think of Corbyn's cunning plan to further erase their vote in 2016. I have a sneaky feeling they won't like it.
You did notice the Conservative manifesto includes increasing ex-pat voting rights, and not necessarily because they think it will help Labour?
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
The debate tonight is one of the best chances to change things.
The debate tonight will be the first time the public hears about Labour's plan to rig a 2nd referendum and all future General Elections by adding millions of non-citizens to the voter rolls.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
Like the commonwealth and Irish citizens who have the right to vote, what is being proposed is not as radical as you think. You only disagree with it because you think it harms Tory chances. If they wanted to restrict it to over 30’s and property owners you would secretly welcome it.
If you're one of the 17.4m who doesn't want to be cheated out of your vote, going for Boris is your only choice.
Should create even more Brexit supporting labour to Tory switching.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
They also predicted 2017 when few other signs did.
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Can you show how you got to 6.8% Tory lead?
What do your calculations show for 2017?
Regression of actual vote share of govt Vs opposition on positive rating differential and negative rating differential. 10 elections since 1979. Predicted 1.8pp Vs 2.5pp actual in 2017.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
They also predicted 2017 when few other signs did.
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Can you show how you got to 6.8% Tory lead?
What do your calculations show for 2017?
Regression of actual vote share of govt Vs opposition on positive rating differential and negative rating differential. 10 elections since 1979. Predicted 1.8pp Vs 2.5pp actual in 2017.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
Mind sharing the link for that data? I am keen to give myself (probably false) hope.
Labour have got just a few days to gain a few points. They can do it.
The debate tonight is one of the best chances to change things.
The debate tonight will be the first time the public hears about Labour's plan to rig a 2nd referendum and all future General Elections by adding millions of non-citizens to the voter rolls.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
Like the commonwealth and Irish citizens who have the right to vote, what is being proposed is not as radical as you think. You only disagree with it because you think it harms Tory chances. If they wanted to restrict it to over 30’s and property owners you would secretly welcome it.
Let's see what Labour leave voters think of Corbyn's cunning plan to further erase their vote in 2016. I have a sneaky feeling they won't like it.
You did notice the Conservative manifesto includes increasing ex-pat voting rights, and not necessarily because they think it will help Labour?
That won't matter to Labour leave voters. Trying to add millions of votes from EU citizens to achieve a Remain verdict in a hypothetical future referendum most certainly will. I can hear the Tory leaflets dropping through hundreds of thousands of households in the Midlands and the North -
This is what Keir Starmer tweeted before deleting it:
"Keir Starmer (Labour) tweeted : This is extraordinary. It exposes Johnson’s contempt for everyone other than his own elite. twitter.com/channel4news/s…
Keir StarmerDeleted about 4 hours ago after 2 minutes, tweeted using Twitter for iPhone"
"Diane Abbott (Labour) tweeted : Some of us argued that the permanent Tory campaign against migrants was nothing more than dog whistle politics. Unfortunately, in the middle of a general election campaign, Boris Johnson proved we were right
Diane AbbottDeleted about 4 hours ago after 43 minutes, tweeted using Twitter Web App"
Jumping to a conclusion without examining whether they are being led by their own prejudice is bad enough, but not being able to apologise for it, and deleting the tweets to give the impression they never happened is typical of the lack of honour in modern politics.
It's like people supporting a football team blindly.
Neither is exactly admired by any criterion, but the most striking contrast is the Good leader/Bad leader rating:
Boris 36% Good leader, 41% Bad leader Corbyn 16% Good leader, 57% Bad leader
Mmm, but Corbyn is ahead (in the sense of less bad) on most of the other criteria. Classically Tories lead on "competence/leadership" and Labour leaders win on "empathy/understands people like me" (CorbynJohnson -19/-30). I think Johnson does convey an impression of dynamism which Corbyn's judicious replies lack, but people mostly don't actually like what Johnson says.
As in other polls, the gap for gender and age is gigantic - we're used to age correlating with conservatism, but I've never seen an age split quite like it.
We have never had a country where the retired own such a big share of the capital and the workers own so little. So its still just those with capital vote Tory and those without vote Labour seen along age rather than class.
Possibly Japan. A country with such an aging population it tried (and failed?) to develop robot nurses to tend the elderly. It's not perhaps an approach to emulate...
Indeed, we simply need immigration because of our demographics and therefore will have it. All Brexit will have changed is to move the immigration from Europe to Africa and Asia and made immigrants here feel less welcome. Many of those with "talent" will go somewhere else and be replaced with those with fewer options available to them.
and when the immigrants get old themselves do we make them leave? or do we then need even more immigration to take care of the even higher aged population? do we ever hit equilibrium?
It simply depends on how many children we have and how long people live. We have chosen to have fewer and fewer children and people are living longer so you end up with more older people and fewer young ones. Its nothing complicated. The only short term solution is immigration. Longer term we could have policies that encourage people to have more kids, but the current trends are making it harder for people to do that as the young have loads of debt, low earnings and poor access to own family homes.
so the same increase in population but without importing it. same increased need for housing, energy and infrastructure. time for another look at those robots.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
They also predicted 2017 when few other signs did.
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Can you show how you got to 6.8% Tory lead?
What do your calculations show for 2017?
Regression of actual vote share of govt Vs opposition on positive rating differential and negative rating differential. 10 elections since 1979. Predicted 1.8pp Vs 2.5pp actual in 2017.
How does it hold up for 2015?
5.9 Vs 6.4 actual. If you run it out of sample for 2015/7 (ie using only data through 2010) the results hardly change.
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
Very fair, but in this case the thinking (and hearing) was conditioned by Boris' past record of far worse casual racism. I suspect there would have been much more investigation had he not had such a record.
ah, so it is actually Boris' fault.
burning hot take, pal. Burning.
I assume you can read - in which case you are deliberately misrepresenting and would get a ban on many sites. I did not say it was his fault. I said his past had conditioned the response of others. If you do not understand the difference you are even dimmer than Mark Francois.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
They also predicted 2017 when few other signs did.
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Can you show how you got to 6.8% Tory lead?
What do your calculations show for 2017?
Regression of actual vote share of govt Vs opposition on positive rating differential and negative rating differential. 10 elections since 1979. Predicted 1.8pp Vs 2.5pp actual in 2017.
How does it hold up for 2015?
5.9 Vs 6.4 actual. If you run it out of sample for 2015/7 (ie using only data through 2010) the results hardly change.
What's the r^2 correlation on net, positive and negative ?
I think everyone outside CCHQ thinks he should do it. But it's also possible to think that as he will skewer himself badly and hence is better off not doing it he shouldn't do it.
So it will dominate the Wednesday media. I am guessing the Tories really won't want it showing some sort of blow out. Something like 35 you would think would be perfect for their GOTV.
Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.
Assuming the Conservatives win, I expect the next round of local elections will be torrid.
xxx
That's what people said about 2010 & 2015! Labour shrewdly getting the lot by "losing"
It's mrty.
xx
Oh sure.
But if Labour got in now in coalition with the SNP, they'd probably end up only lasting a couple of years and they'd get the blame for the long term structural issues with the UK economy.
Your predictions are way too pessimistic. It is equally possible that the UK economy, having lingered in Brexit stasis for eternity, will pick up steam once the exit has been made, and Boris (I am guessing) steers the country to a fairly soft landing.
Remember, people want to invest in Britain. They want to buy British property. Students are flooding in as Boris is liberalising the regime. They all need housing.
There are already tentative signs that Prime London Property is bubbling again. Prices are gently perking up. And I am now old enough to remember this cycle well. I was the first on PB to note the initial, small property price recovery after the Crash. It feels very similar now, but it DOES depend on a solid Tory majority.
Cheer up, and say a prayer.
Yes. Miserably predicting house price crashes has been a common practice on PB, since I joined the site many years ago. There have been such predictions pretty every year, often several times a year. It's just one of those PB idiosyncrasies – treat with caution I would say!
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
Very fair, but in this case the thinking (and hearing) was conditioned by Boris' past record of far worse casual racism. I suspect there would have been much more investigation had he not had such a record.
ah, so it is actually Boris' fault.
burning hot take, pal. Burning.
I assume you can read - in which case you are deliberately misrepresenting and would get a ban on many sites. I did not say it was his fault. I said his past had conditioned the response of others. If you do not understand the difference you are even dimmer than Mark Francois.
According to your logic, if someone said 2+2=5 yesterday, we should disbelieve them when they say 2+2=4 today.
At least you only have a binary choice with Major. With Boris (and Corbyn to some extent) a list of their partners, ex partners, mistresses, one night stands etc reads like the electoral register.
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
Very fair, but in this case the thinking (and hearing) was conditioned by Boris' past record of far worse casual racism. I suspect there would have been much more investigation had he not had such a record.
ah, so it is actually Boris' fault.
burning hot take, pal. Burning.
I assume you can read - in which case you are deliberately misrepresenting and would get a ban on many sites. I did not say it was his fault. I said his past had conditioned the response of others. If you do not understand the difference you are even dimmer than Mark Francois.
That's an even hotter take. Good one. Looking forwards to the trilogy!
So it will dominate the Wednesday media. I am guessing the Tories really won't want it showing some sort of blow out. Something like 35 you would think would be perfect for their GOTV.
BONG!
I'm looking forward to the Momentum cognitive dissonance when they actually lose as predicted by youGov
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
Very fair, but in this case the thinking (and hearing) was conditioned by Boris' past record of far worse casual racism. I suspect there would have been much more investigation had he not had such a record.
ah, so it is actually Boris' fault.
burning hot take, pal. Burning.
I assume you can read - in which case you are deliberately misrepresenting and would get a ban on many sites. I did not say it was his fault. I said his past had conditioned the response of others. If you do not understand the difference you are even dimmer than Mark Francois.
According to your logic, if someone said 2+2=5 yesterday, we should disbelieve them when they say 2+2=4 today.
I fear 'logic' is doing a lot of heavy lifting here.
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
The depressing thing is how quickly people have allowed Twitter to do all the things you mention after hundreds of years of most journalists endeavouring to be as truthful and accurate as possible.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
They also predicted 2017 when few other signs did.
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Can you show how you got to 6.8% Tory lead?
What do your calculations show for 2017?
Regression of actual vote share of govt Vs opposition on positive rating differential and negative rating differential. 10 elections since 1979. Predicted 1.8pp Vs 2.5pp actual in 2017.
I think I'd like to see the graph/raw data, if you have it. Cheers.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
DYOR indeed. Sorry but this sounds like gibberish.
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
DYOR indeed. Sorry but this sounds like gibberish.
Note that Boris Johnson is by far the lowest ranked of all the higher of the pairs. There are huge numbers of voters hostile to both. How they resolve their distaste for both is going to decide this election.
Unfortunately, despite 'other alternatives are available', its likely they'd just hold their nose and vote for the other one.
And therefore, Johnson will get his majority.
You're assuming that Boris Johnson is the preferred choice of those who dislike both.
Yes. Yes I am Alastair. I wish it were not so, but I think that is where we will end up. With a leader who is disliked slightly less than Corbyn.
It's been a pretty terrible election. Roll on 2024.
On a point of information, couldn't the next election squeak into 2025, if we have another five week campaign?
Wrong question. I think he should do it. I’m sure everyone on here does. I also think he should eat his tie properly, invest in suits that fit, and wear proper shoes.
As all talk of policies now gone? It seems the past few days it has all been about Jezza antisemitism, Boris ducking an interview / being smeared. I fully expect this evening to be bad tempered, he is a bigger shit than me stuff.
Then over the weekend, I fully expect the right leaning papers to give it another blast of tales of Jezza's dodgy past. Wouldn't be surprised if the Times have some sort of update on the Boris' mate the blonde hacker story.
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
The depressing thing is how quickly people have allowed Twitter to do all the things you mention after hundreds of years of most journalists endeavouring to be as truthful and accurate as possible.
Yes, very sad
You would think people would be ashamed of themselves for such behaviour, yet they try to wriggle out of it, blame others and score points like little children
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
The depressing thing is how quickly people have allowed Twitter to do all the things you mention after hundreds of years of most journalists endeavouring to be as truthful and accurate as possible.
Wait until the US elections this time next year - it’s going to be an absolute sh!t-show of fake news and altered videos, with Google, Facebook and Twitter right in the middle of it.
I think that, no matter who wins, there will be cross-party support for taking these companies down a peg or two.
This is what Keir Starmer tweeted before deleting it:
"Keir Starmer (Labour) tweeted : This is extraordinary. It exposes Johnson’s contempt for everyone other than his own elite. twitter.com/channel4news/s…
Keir StarmerDeleted about 4 hours ago after 2 minutes, tweeted using Twitter for iPhone"
"Diane Abbott (Labour) tweeted : Some of us argued that the permanent Tory campaign against migrants was nothing more than dog whistle politics. Unfortunately, in the middle of a general election campaign, Boris Johnson proved we were right
Diane AbbottDeleted about 4 hours ago after 43 minutes, tweeted using Twitter Web App"
Nicola Sturgeon (scottish-national-party) tweeted : And the Tories claim that their obsession with immigration is nothing to do with race. This is a shocking - and very revealing - comment. Nicola Sturgeon Deleted about 5 hours ago after 11 minutes, tweeted using Twitter for iPhone https://politwoops.eu/p/scottish-national-party/nicolasturgeon
When do we need to start looking at whether it is appropriate to release such opinion polls a few days before an election?
The counterargument is that if you don't release scientific data the information vacuum just gets filled with all sorts of fake news, fake polls and gossip that ends up confusing people. In those circumstances, it's better to have scientific polls in the public domain. In theory you could try to have an information black-out, but in practice people would try to fill it, especially in the internet age.
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
The depressing thing is how quickly people have allowed Twitter to do all the things you mention after hundreds of years of most journalists endeavouring to be as truthful and accurate as possible.
I’m not sure that journalists have always had a reputation for truth and accuracy: this was written in 1930
You cannot hope to bribe or twist, thank God! the British journalist.
But, seeing what the man will do unbribed, there's no occasion to.
The depressing thing is how quickly people have allowed Twitter to do all the things you mention after hundreds of years of most journalists endeavouring to be as truthful and accurate as possible.
Not really. The biggest selling papers in Britain have long been those which are most economical with the actualité. At least with Twitter you know that it's just someone's opinion, rather than the Sun and the Mail purporting to be "news".
PB Tories prepare for a change of underwear. OGH is right that the difference in positive ratings is a better predictor of the result than the difference in the net ratings. If you run a simple regression of vote share on both the positive and the negative ratings differential using data from 1979 (10 observations) then the coefficient on the positive rating differential is about 10x that on the negative one. For 2019 it predicts... A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation. DYOR.
They also predicted 2017 when few other signs did.
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Can you show how you got to 6.8% Tory lead?
What do your calculations show for 2017?
Regression of actual vote share of govt Vs opposition on positive rating differential and negative rating differential. 10 elections since 1979. Predicted 1.8pp Vs 2.5pp actual in 2017.
I think I'd like to see the graph/raw data, if you have it. Cheers.
It's simply the Mori favorability data all of which is online. Vote shares are from Commons briefing paper 7529, again online. I don't have time to share the data sorry but feel free to dig it out, will take you about 15 mins if you have excel and know the LINEST command. I redid with GB rather than UK vote shares since polling is usually GB only, it predicts a 7.0pp gap rather than 6.8pp. Quite interesting because my view was the gap is 9pp but I am having a rethink.
I'm a long-time 'Ding Dong' voter but this time I've switched allegiance to the Carol of the Bells. I think there will be a big swing for them this year.
Comments
F Business, experts know nothing, judges are the enemies of the people, the us and them with the metropolitan "elite" to describe people renting a room in a shared house but happen to vote remain, nonsense about migration and immigrants. Those are the reasons many of us have been driven almost insane, finding out our compatriots care nothing for British values and British institutions such as parliament, the judiciary, that we believe in.
Remember, people want to invest in Britain. They want to buy British property. Students are flooding in as Boris is liberalising the regime. They all need housing.
There are already tentative signs that Prime London Property is bubbling again. Prices are gently perking up. And I am now old enough to remember this cycle well. I was the first on PB to note the initial, small property price recovery after the Crash. It feels very similar now, but it DOES depend on a solid Tory majority.
Cheer up, and say a prayer.
As I keep saying, if this gains the slightest traction...
I wish it were not so, but I think that is where we will end up. With a leader who is disliked slightly less than Corbyn.
It's been a pretty terrible election. Roll on 2024.
"But he he added that he was "in favour of people of talent coming to this country"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50412772
A 6.8% Tory lead. 2.2pp standard deviation.
DYOR.
I am sure there are some who would love to have it work that way
The latest forecasts are for above average temperatures for the time of year. 10 degrees or more in some places.
Given that it requires only half a dozen net gains (one of which will be Buckingham) and the polls show roughly a 4-5 point swing in the Conservatives’ favour, and especially so in marginal seats, can anyone see how this isn’t huge value if Johnson doesn’t completely f*** up the debate tonight?
I will keep trying. Bet I get a "plus 1" or a "This!" out of you before this thread is out.
"Keir Starmer (Labour) tweeted :
This is extraordinary. It exposes Johnson’s contempt for everyone other than his own elite. twitter.com/channel4news/s…
Keir StarmerDeleted about 4 hours ago after 2 minutes, tweeted using Twitter for iPhone"
https://politwoops.eu/p/labour/Keir_Starmer
Diane Abbott:
"Diane Abbott (Labour) tweeted :
Some of us argued that the permanent Tory campaign against migrants was nothing more than dog whistle politics. Unfortunately, in the middle of a general election campaign, Boris Johnson proved we were right
Diane AbbottDeleted about 4 hours ago after 43 minutes, tweeted using Twitter Web App"
https://politwoops.eu/p/labour/HackneyAbbott
This and consumer confidence makes me slightly more confident in my prediction.
Can you show how you got to 6.8% Tory lead?
What do your calculations show for 2017?
Should create even more Brexit supporting labour to Tory switching.
YouGov Final MRP poll to be released Tuesday 2200GMT
https://twitter.com/DailyFXTeam/status/1202975407047356416
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1202962324702814209
'Labour are trying to rig another EU referendum'
Looks pretty damned effective to me.
It's like people supporting a football team blindly.
I have been watching this market for a while along with Con 340+.
It has been interesting the way they have had occasional periods of negative correlation in their movement.
When I say interesting I mean it has left me a little confused.
Quite right. AJ is stupidly short - Yes. Miserably predicting house price crashes has been a common practice on PB, since I joined the site many years ago. There have been such predictions pretty every year, often several times a year. It's just one of those PB idiosyncrasies – treat with caution I would say!
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1202975165505769474
I'm looking forward to the Momentum cognitive dissonance when they actually lose as predicted by youGov
Won’t affect my vote though.
Then over the weekend, I fully expect the right leaning papers to give it another blast of tales of Jezza's dodgy past. Wouldn't be surprised if the Times have some sort of update on the Boris' mate the blonde hacker story.
If regression of MORI leader ratings implies Con lead 6.8% then there is still time for that to go down to 4% or 5%.
Original figures were Con 310, Lab 257.
Updated figures were Con 303, Lab 269.
Result was Con 318, Lab 262.
You would think people would be ashamed of themselves for such behaviour, yet they try to wriggle out of it, blame others and score points like little children
I think that, no matter who wins, there will be cross-party support for taking these companies down a peg or two.
And the Tories claim that their obsession with immigration is nothing to do with race. This is a shocking - and very revealing - comment.
Nicola Sturgeon
Deleted about 5 hours ago after 11 minutes, tweeted using Twitter for iPhone
https://politwoops.eu/p/scottish-national-party/nicolasturgeon
* hopefully I don't have to pay Rod Crosby some sort of royalty for using that term.
You cannot hope
to bribe or twist,
thank God! the
British journalist.
But, seeing what
the man will do
unbribed, there's
no occasion to.
I redid with GB rather than UK vote shares since polling is usually GB only, it predicts a 7.0pp gap rather than 6.8pp.
Quite interesting because my view was the gap is 9pp but I am having a rethink.
I'm a long-time 'Ding Dong' voter but this time I've switched allegiance to the Carol of the Bells. I think there will be a big swing for them this year.
*in the Britain's favourite carol poll