I find the point about how it's wrong to weight back to the EU ref result (given the demographic changes since June 2016) compelling.
But the pollsters must have some reason for not doing that. Does anyone know what it is?
Been following Dr Moderate for a couple of weeks thanks to Horse's posts. A straw to clutch and the polls may be wrong, but this fella seems to fail to understand the most rudimentary aspects of polling. So if they are wrong it wont be because he's spotted an oversight by all the pollsters but by coincidence.
He might be an absolute polling genius, but I am very wary of people who have been tweeting for 7 years and still only have a few 100 followers. Look at the likes of Britain Elects, those kind of people get popular quickly because they provide solid info.
Britain Elects are the best on twitter and I hope it stays that way despite the investment from the New Statesman. Election Maps are sadly too keen to project their own views.
Election maps is just one guy
Ballot Box Scot is good if you're wanting detailed analysis of Scottish seats.
It’s possible that some young areas/ university/ metro areas might swing *further* to Labour at this election. I know that doesn’t necessarily tie-up with what I’ve previously said on this forum.
And, I probably haven’t given this enough thought in my betting.
Good news for the Tories if ao, seeing as these seats are already Labour.
Erdington and Northfield seats shown in that video will be announced at 3am.
Its amazing how Lewis seems to find totally different people from John Harris....The later has a good record of getting a really good representation of what is going on, despite his own personal politics.
I am not sure what anyone expects to learn from Northfield. I was brought up there and even at my advanced age I still cannot figure it out as a seat. It should be rock solid Labour (and even more so now than in my youth when it was being developed). It has an industrial past (Longbridge), serious poverty and drug problems (especially around Ley Hill), a truly crappy shopping centre and has long been neglected by Conservatives - even when they have won council seats in the constituency. But it has been pretty close for as long as I recall. Labour would probably not have got it back in '92 if Cadbury had still been MP. So I am not sure how to relate it to the behaviour of other seats. I can think of very few like it which have voted like it in the past.
Yougov MRP has it as a very close one. 43/40 to Labour.
It usually has been. It is that I cannot figure out, even after 50 years.
Any sign of a surveymonkey poll this time? They did very well the last two elections (joint closest 2017, and dead on 2015 when everyone else was miles off).
The EU continue to have issues in managing their anger that Brexit is happening in the first place.
This doesn’t bode well for a constructive and foresighted future relationship.
Whether or not your point is correct, can you identify anything that the British government has done to build a constructive future relationship with the EU?
No, but approving the WA they agreed with us would technically improve relations from the limbo we are in with them at present as even a ref would not, since they'd be clear about our direction so we'll be easier to work with.
Let’s stick with the first word of your answer. Leavers still can’t get to the point of taking responsibility for their own infantile tantrums and the damage they cause.
The other words were not to say there has been any constructive action, just that us not leaving them hanging, as at present, does contribute constructive action.
It is, but nevertheless I suspect he’s right that undecideds (who are now almostly entirely on the Left) will end up firming up behind Labour in the final days.
Shops may sell out of industrial strength clothes-pegs but I still think most of these voters find it really really hard *not* to vote Labour.
I think large numbers will persuade themselves that they are not voting Tory they are specifically voting for "Boris" and for Brexit. In 2017 this was what Mrs May was hoping for. A vote for Brexit and for 'Her' from WWC Labour Leavers. Didn't work - or not sufficiently - because Brexit was a distant prospect and she was not a strong enough personal brand as distinct from her disliked and distrusted party. Both those obstacles are now gone. So I think it WILL work this time.
I still reckon Corbyn will cling on, even in that scenario.
Really? I think he's ready to step down for a quieter life.
He's not the same man he was in 2015. He's harder, more wily (yes, really) and calculating, and the hunger for the position and its prominence might stay with him now, in a way that was definitely not true of him for his 30+ years in parliament. The job has changed him.
It’s possible that some young areas/ university/ metro areas might swing *further* to Labour at this election. I know that doesn’t necessarily tie-up with what I’ve previously said on this forum.
And, I probably haven’t given this enough thought in my betting.
Good news for the Tories if ao, seeing as these seats are already Labour.
My guess is a slight Green uptick in such areas, thanks to Greta and XR. Today's students are a completely different cohort from 2017. But, yes, the Tories will benefit most.
Comments
Soon it will be easier to count the people who haven't seen it.
Genuine water cooler moment. One of the few in this election.
@ElectionMapsUK
·
7m
Westminster Voting Intention:
CON: 43% (+1)
LAB: 34% (=)
LDM: 13% (=)
BXP: 3% (-1)
GRN: 2% (-1)
Via
@PanelbaseMD
, 4-6th Dec.
Changes w/ 27-28 Nov.