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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos-MORI leader ratings
As I have said repeatedly over the years leader ratings are a better guide to election outcomes than voting intention numbers. The reason is that this form of questioning is what pollsters do best – asking for opinions not seeking to get poll participants to predict whether they might take part in some future event and what they will actually do.
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https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1202924201923022849
Blair obviously did better than Howard in 2005. Cameron got a majority in 2015 but didn't in 2010, despite his ratings being lower in 2015 and the Labour leader's ratings being higher.
What is remarkable is how far Corbyn has fallen since 2017. His ratings have improved over the campaign, but nowhere near as much as last time.
If you want to think I am just peddling a line, fair enough. But I'm not.
https://twitter.com/JasonWMTT/status/1202924435826716673?s=20
It's TALENT
1) They abstain or spoil their ballot paper
2) They vote for another party
3) They decide that the choice is important, that one or other is more objectionable than the other, and make a choice between them
4) They decide to try to game their vote to work towards a hung Parliament
I expect different voters will end up in different places.
And ch 4 have admitted they cocked up and that he said talent.
It also doesn't really fit with the previous Johnson is a racist narrative that he should use the uber correct "people of colour" as opposed to, say, "mulattoes" or "postboxes".
Mike, I assume the 2005 graphic is wrong? You have Blair winning with lower ratings than Johnson (and even more unlikely, Howard)
Corbyn has been a disaster. Part of me hopes that tactical voting can limit any Tory advance but just can't see it.
Don’t be sad. 😔
I got bored and have coded up ability to scrape a load of data from the t'interweb, so now can automatically create spreadsheets containing constituency timings, brexit %, vote tallies at last GE. I also have demographic data from the census broken down for each seat.
I currently have a filtered output with Lab held seats that voted for Brexit, ordered by when they will announce so people can follow along. Thinking being if the Tories are going to win a majority we should be seeing them doing well in those constituency, especially Northern / Midland ones.
If people have any thoughts / ideas of what else would be useful, let me know and I will see if I can host them somewhere for election night. Or if somebody wants to put in some excel formulas so it will show swings etc (as I don't really do excel).
FTFY - but we really have a choice of idiots...
People can perhaps be forgiven an initial mishearing, especially when mixed with Channel 4's outrageous subtitle. What is not forgiveable is the thousands of twats on Twitter, still determined to believe it is "colour" despite now-ample evidence that they are entirely wrong.
They are prejudiced, and they look like imbeciles.
A few things to take from this People of Colour/Talent episode.
1) Twitter has destroyed journalism in this country and it is very close to destroying the very essence of truth. Journalists simply do not operate within editorial boundaries on Twitter. Channel 4 need severely reprimanding for their role in this affair as an example to all.
2) A great many people got exposed as being part of the hive-mind of Twitter. In one respect this episode is a salutary lesson for them but will it be heeded? Doubtful.
3) By accident, this episode reveals the dangers in the next few years of the deep fake videos. If you have the hive-mind of Twitter searching for a gotcha moment and you have someone else ready to supply it, then its clear we are about to enter a new era where truth is destroyed. I'm sure our enemies are rubbing their hands with glee.
Tony Blair. Used to Speak. In groups of. Two or Three Words. With Pauses. There could be. No Confusion about. What he said.
Perhaps surprisingly, some of our 2017 Labour leave voters had a higher opinion of Boris Johnson than their Conservative counterparts: “He’s actually stood up to people. He won’t be bullied;” “He’s quite ruthless and bloody-minded. If he says he’s going to do it he’ll do it, regardless of the consequences, which is what I think you need;” “For me, the election is about getting the Tories in. I believe Boris will get the deal through. At the end of the day, we’ve had a referendum and the result was the result.” Some still had their doubts, though: “You’d like to think he’d get it done, but you just don’t know, do you? He said we’d come out on 31 October, it would definitely happen.”
Many of those leaning towards the Tories were helped along by their view of the Labour leader: “I think he’s a fantasist. He comes out with things that are just not plausible, that you would never believe;” “We’ve all voted Labour before, but can you imagine him and Diane Abbott running the country?” “He won’t even say what they’re going to campaign for. How can you vote for a party that won’t give you their view of what they’re going to do in the future?” “At first I did like him, but over time I think he’s the same as everybody else.”
Does that mean Boris is not a racist? No!
His past clearly shows that he is a racist and freely uses racist language to boost his popularity.
https://www.pippanorris.com/data
It requires a bit of processing to match things up as name formats are slightly different.
For Labour I’d have thought there isn’t really any downside (yet I am sure they would oppose it the most vigorously). For the LibDems there is the risk that being tainted with Corbynism would lose them some Tory remainers, whilst maximising the chance of pulling Labour voters across in key seats like Esher against Raab.
“Free broadband. Great, but what about healthcare? At least you can look up what you’re dying of.”
Second Leave win. First one, June 2016, by binary vote. Now, Dec 2019, by FPTP.
The cognescenti have lost. We must accept it and be quiet for a while. I plan to be. Plenty in life other than politics. I might learn a language.
Ladbrokes have cut Plaid under 4.5 seats to 1/2. But 4/6 still available at Paddys. They need to hold Ceredigion and gain Ynys Mon to get to 5. They're slight favs for Ceredigion and best price 6/4 for Ynys. I'd say chance of winning both are 60% x 45% =27%. I'd price it at under 1/3, over 9/4. But DYOR.
The historical precedent of this chart clearly indicates Tory Maj. Boris is very low, true, but Corbyn is deep in the "contempt zone", beyond even Foot and Kinnock.
Boris' lead is 6 times the size of May's...
To move things on: lots of Tory Facebook ads (I'm on that one for some reason) mocking Corbyn's "neutral" position on Brexit. I think this is an excellent attack line. Allows them to stay positive ("get Britain out of neutral", accompanied with a picture of a gearstick), and neutralises Corbyn's biggest strength. He's so much more effective when he's campaigning against something, even if he has no clue what he's for. Utterly ironic that, after decades of being against everything, when it really mattered he was forced by circumstance to be indifferent to the thing that matters most.
I yearn to forget about politics of all stripes. It is my big resolution for 2020, IF Boris gets a decent majority.
https://twitter.com/GaetanPortal/status/1202935727685799943
Look it's hard...
My politics list is often very testy. The history one is generally civilised and interesting.
I once had a minor dogpile because I posted what I thought was the most bland, agreeable statement (books should be judged by quality not the race/gender of the author), which turned out to apparently be a sign of my white and patriarchal privilege. Boo hiss, me.
I've been thinking about the statistics involved in this - obviously you'd have to build some kind of measure as to whether the deviations from the model's predicted vote shares in the early results were statistically significant, but if for example you had the first 10 results and in all of them Labour were doing a couple of percent better than YouGov expected, then you could probably predict with some degree of confidence that the final result would be better for Labour than the starting prediction, and estimate the delta.
As a refinement you could take account of the region and other characteristics of the seat - for example, your first ten seats might be mainly northern safe Labour seats which wouldn't be typical, so ideally you'd want to increase your level of uncertainty accordingly.
We have some expert statisticians here who I'm sure could advise, but I think this might be a very good way to get an early take on any deviation between the exit poll and the final tallies.
Edit: I see @Andy_JS has already suggested something similar.
Boris gave money to the police (20,000 new officers)
He gave money to the prison service for more jail spaces.
What he didn't do was give the money the other bits of the Justice system desperately need.
https://twitter.com/donaldtuskEPP/status/1202532538033590272
Short term: meh. Might swing ~20-30 seats, possibly but not definitely enough to deprive the Tories of a majority. Might plausibly be a net positive for the Tories, seeing as most voters aren't strongly affiliated enough to a party to care what they think you should do (or are so affiliated that they'll vote for them even if told not to).
It's a trick that only works once, though. I wouldn't want to be trying to defend that decision as a PPC in 2024.
Fwiw I just listened to the clip and it's definitely talent, you can hear the t at the end. In any case it's too unsubtle for Boris to say something like that, indeed when I first saw someone quote the phrase I presumed it was said by Pat Mountain or equivalent.