Swinson's biggest error in the debate this evening was her honesty.
Did you notice she junked the revoke policy, it’s now unless form government the policy is confirmatory vote. It probably was all along, but not as it was sold by PM candidate Swinson.
Significant? It now means LD and labour brexit policy now 4/5ths the same?
To be fair, my understanding of the Lib Dem position throughout the campaign has been Revoke if they win outright, support a second referendum if they don't. One can obviously argue that this effectively amounts to second referendum, because the notion of the Lib Dems forming a majority Government following this election is and always has been ridiculous, but nevertheless there has been no change.
The Lib Dems pretend they won't back a Labour minority Govt headed by Corbyn, but you have to suspect that this is a lie intended to try to keep their soft Tory Remain voters onboard. If a Labour leader were to offer them exactly what they wanted on a second referendum, you have to suspect that they wouldn't be too picky about who that person was.
Vote Lib Dem, get Corbyn.
That is the message the Tories need to hammer home as they head into the home straight.
But most Lib Dem voters would prefer a Corbyn Government (if it meant stopping Brexit) according to polls I've seen
That may be the case. But they're going to vote Lib Dem or perhaps Labour anyway. It's switchers from the Conservatives they need to get to return to the fold.
Ultimately I think the lib dems will continue to be squeezed by the two main parties. It's a shame because it would do the country good to end the duopoly that has dominated the last century or so.
But ultimately most of us don't vote "for" a party, we vote against another one. Labour to stop the evil Tories getting in and Tories to stop Labour from getting in and bankrupting the country.
I'll be voting Conservative next month, even though I have very little trust in Johnson's personality or his policies. I just want to see Corbyn stopped.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
YouGov was based on an 11pt Tory lead over the 7 days that they polled. Since then we've had slight drops in all the other polls, and a Scottish poll that is more positive for the SNP.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
The way the site has been updated to include probability intervals gives an enormous possible range of both Tory and Labour results, but with the Conservatives having a much higher midpoint and (according to their model) still retaining a 63% chance of winning some form of overall majority. Moreover, accounting for Sinn Fein etc. as usual, an outcome as poor as 331 would still imply a working majority of around 20.
I do not say this as a Tory ramper, merely as an observation of what Electoral Calculus are suggesting - at the moment. I maintain my belief that there's every chance that voters will keep drifting back to Labour in the polls, the leadership ratings for Johnson and Corbyn will continue to narrow, and that a lot of the ex-Labour waverers in the Leave marginals who claim they'll switch sides won't - and that we'll therefore end up with a Hung Parliament again.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
Reminds me unfortunately of the same security cockups with terrorists as in the 2017 election terror attacks. Will it impact the election? There will definitely be conspiracy theories flying around like last time. Last time it may even have helped Labour, certainly in Hastings.
Aside from the politics, the terrorism, what’s the book like on the next arsenal manager? Outside betting tip alert, if Corbyn loses and resigns, could he be in the running? Not sure what defence would be like under him, but the left wing would be strong and I’m sure he could keep finding strikers from somewhere.
What is Eddie Howe in the book, seems a good fit for both parties.
Agreed, but remember when he went to Burnley? He returned to Bournemouth for non-football reasons (family, lifestyle, area). Not sure he would want London.
Apparently this was where the incident today may have started:
"A Five Year Celebration Alumni Event run by the programme Learning Together, a project on prison-based learning set up by the Cambridge Centre for Teaching and Learning, was being held at Fishmongers’ Hall nearby between 11am and 4pm."
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
Well they would say that wouldnt they
And Tory activists would say the same as well. Really we know nothing
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
The way the site has been updated to include probability intervals gives an enormous possible range of both Tory and Labour results, but with the Conservatives having a much higher midpoint and (according to their model) still retaining a 63% chance of winning some form of overall majority. Moreover, accounting for Sinn Fein etc. as usual, an outcome as poor as 331 would still imply a working majority of around 20.
I do not say this as a Tory ramper, merely as an observation of what Electoral Calculus are suggesting - at the moment. I maintain my belief that there's every chance that voters will keep drifting back to Labour in the polls, the leadership ratings for Johnson and Corbyn will continue to narrow, and that a lot of the ex-Labour waverers in the Leave marginals who claim they'll switch sides won't - and that we'll therefore end up with a Hung Parliament again.
One interesting point that Electoral Calculus mentioned was that the Brexit party backing out only in Tory seats, bumped up the Tory vote in those seats and in the polls by around 4 points, without any additional seat gains.
Obv. the Brexit party standing aside in Tory seats is a big benefit electorally - making Tory seats harder to take, but it also makes the election much less close than the reality.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
You need to read buzzfeed on the internal panic in the northern labour party
You are getting carried away and wishing a result that is far from certain
Reminds me unfortunately of the same security cockups with terrorists as in the 2017 election terror attacks. Will it impact the election? There will definitely be conspiracy theories flying around like last time. Last time it may even have helped Labour, certainly in Hastings.
To be fair to the authorities, it’s not necessarily a cock-up if it was normal procedure for him to be on licence by now. In fairness we also don’t know what the offence was - would be different if he had been inside for something unrelated. Though might (and should) open a debate about radicalisation in prison.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
You need to read buzzfeed on the internal panic in the northern labour party
You are getting carried away and wishing a result that is far from certain
I'm not wishing for anything, I'm just just not hearing what you're saying. I've seen the Buzzfeed stuff.
I did call 2017 right - so I have some confidence in my predictions. But we will see where things go from here.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
Well they would say that wouldnt they
But they haven't. They are in panic in their northern seats
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
Well they would say that wouldnt they
But they haven't. They are in panic in their northern seats
You tell us they're in a panic. I don't hear the same.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
How are things in north Wales? Wrexham was expected to be Conservative last time, May campaigned a lot there. If the Conservatives win it, it would be an indication of them getting a majority, but unfortunately it won't be one of the early seats to come in.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
You need to read buzzfeed on the internal panic in the northern labour party
You are getting carried away and wishing a result that is far from certain
I'm not wishing for anything, I'm just just not hearing what you're saying. I've seen the Buzzfeed stuff.
I did call 2017 right - so I have some confidence in my predictions. But we will see where things go from here.
As someone who’s been in your position in the past, all I will say is that it’s usually the hope that kills you.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
You need to read buzzfeed on the internal panic in the northern labour party
You are getting carried away and wishing a result that is far from certain
I'm not wishing for anything, I'm just just not hearing what you're saying. I've seen the Buzzfeed stuff.
I did call 2017 right - so I have some confidence in my predictions. But we will see where things go from here.
As someone who’s been in your position in the past, all I will say is that it’s usually the hope that kills you.
I'm not certain of a HP don't get me wrong, I just think it's a very distinct possibility.
For me it's between HP and very slim Tory majority.
The whole activists thing I don't really buy because we saw similar behaviour in 2017 and then it all improved in the final days.
I also want to win a bit of money, isn't that why we're all here?
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
How are things in north Wales? Wrexham was expected to be Conservative last time, May campaigned a lot there. If the Conservatives win it, it would be an indication of them getting a majority, but unfortunately it won't be one of the early seats to come in.
I cannot say as I am not involved with the party. However I expect the party will do reasonably well in Wales. Plus 4 or 5 seats is possible
These letters seem to be appearing all over the place twitter.com/MorrisseyHelena/status/1200510218947452929
Mike is obviously doing his bit for the LDs just like all the other supporters on here are supporting their parties. There is an election on ....
Ah, so your ok with some misleading comments then
The LibDem candidate in SW Surrey distanced himself from the letter tonight at a public meeting (so I'm told - I wasn't there) and said he had complained to LibDem HQ about it.
How are things in north Wales? Wrexham was expected to be Conservative last time, May campaigned a lot there. If the Conservatives win it, it would be an indication of them getting a majority, but unfortunately it won't be one of the early seats to come in.
You Gov understated the Cons by 3.4% and overstated Labour by 2.3% in 2017.
How are things in north Wales? Wrexham was expected to be Conservative last time, May campaigned a lot there. If the Conservatives win it, it would be an indication of them getting a majority, but unfortunately it won't be one of the early seats to come in.
You Gov understated the Cons by 3.4% and overstated Labour by 2.3% in 2017.
I got one in OxWAB! My first thought was: "how did Mike get my address?". Then I remembered the competition I won a while back. Then I thought "how does he know my wife's name?". It was all a bit surreal!
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
The way the site has been updated to include probability intervals gives an enormous possible range of both Tory and Labour results, but with the Conservatives having a much higher midpoint and (according to their model) still retaining a 63% chance of winning some form of overall majority. Moreover, accounting for Sinn Fein etc. as usual, an outcome as poor as 331 would still imply a working majority of around 20.
I do not say this as a Tory ramper, merely as an observation of what Electoral Calculus are suggesting - at the moment. I maintain my belief that there's every chance that voters will keep drifting back to Labour in the polls, the leadership ratings for Johnson and Corbyn will continue to narrow, and that a lot of the ex-Labour waverers in the Leave marginals who claim they'll switch sides won't - and that we'll therefore end up with a Hung Parliament again.
One interesting point that Electoral Calculus mentioned was that the Brexit party backing out only in Tory seats, bumped up the Tory vote in those seats and in the polls by around 4 points, without any additional seat gains.
Obv. the Brexit party standing aside in Tory seats is a big benefit electorally - making Tory seats harder to take, but it also makes the election much less close than the reality.
I agree, it’s made it messy for pollsters. However has it really helped in seats Torys already hold because is there much brexit there for them to squeeze, and voters can now identify Tory and BREX as same thing of this pact. And it clearly is a pact there was dialogue before farage decision. Because in a lot of those Lib Dem targets where they are targeting remain Tories, seat may have been remain 2016 with a remain backing moderate MP before Cummings sent themall to the house of the dead, Tory’s will need a lot of those BREX votes to counteract losing their remainers. If though farage stood his candidate down, is the candidate now indy or UKIP could get the votes? Yeah you are right in what you posted, it’s made it hard to poll. 😕
Winners so far certainly not the Tories or Labour .
Get Brexit Done is getting a right kicking .
That’s the big take out so far, the claim brexit can quickly get done is under attack and being called a lie. The central plank of the Tory campaign, get brexit done, the opponents are trying to convince the voters is a big lie.
Who is going to get convinced that it is a lie do you reckon? You've been convinced that it is a lie all along, how many who believe Brexit needs to be 'done' will watch this and say "Brexit done is a lie"?
It’s not wether you believe brexit is a good idea or not thommo, it’s whether brexit will be done and out peoples lives for ever by next February or not. You are right I don’t believe it. Do you believe it? No. You don't believe that either.
Yes I do believe it, so long as there is a healthy Tory majority. We will be out, we will calmly negotiate and implement a subsequent deal to follow the transition which won't be a very big argument (because the Tories will have a healthy majority to implement it) and nobody will be talking about Brexit.
Well that is what the Tories are campaigning on, Nicely succinctly put by you, and the voters believe you Thommo, that a Boris win and brexit brexit brexit will be out their lives for ever. From February they think.
It’s a lie. Another campaign won on a lie.
And the opposition parties are beginning to grapple with the lie now, half way through the campaign with lots of don’t knows still out there.
Brexit will be out of their lives from February. We will be out. Remain will not be a thing anymore.
🙂 I think the games up Thommo
I think so too. Game Over for Remain when Brexit ends.
My experience from hanging about with activists from other parties, eg at polling stations, is that SNP, Lab, Grn and Con all get on very well with each other, whereas the Lib Dems treat everyone else as pariahs. Unsurprisingly, the treatment becomes mutual.
That has generally been my experience too.
Not mine. Pleasantness and the reverse are IMO not correlated with political opinions.
I would certainly agree with your second statement. I'm not quite as convinced when it comes to activists though. Each party certainly has issues when it comes to behaviour of their activists, but when it comes to situations as described in the original post it certainly ties in with my experience. Others may have different experiences, of course.
I am on a train. It was only ten minutes late. It is half-empty, no drunks, nobody gobbing off, and I'm sitting next to the heater. I have warm pants, a book, and an Alpro Greek style strawberry soya yoghurt. Life is goooooood....
Which country are you in again?
England. Various different bits of it. I live in one bit and commute to another by train. It's better than my previous approach, which involved moving around a lot (see past posts). However, since the bits are quite far apart (hundreds of miles in some cases) it involves a great deal of train travel, which can be extremely unpleasant if it's late at night or drunks or bad people get on, which they do with monotonous regularity. So you learn to appreciate the good bits
I was trying to be sarcastic by implying you would never get that here...
Ah. Well, it's a fair point. If it helps it's usually depressing, and sometimes it's genuinely scary. But tonight: not so bad. There was a hen-party that got on a few stops back, but it only took a moment to move carriages. If all goes to plan I should be thru my front door in a hour.
Try and watch the debate from the perspective of who is the better debater without being colored by either their views or use. I’m trying to watch it dispassionately to see if anybody can swing votes.
Lucas. That straight to camera PPB she did the other night was different class. No other party leader could have done it.
Yes, she is good. A class act. The Tory guy has no presence. Surely not a serious tip this morning. RLB not doing badly, Swinson and Sturgeon a bit anonymous.
Lucas done best. Price did well where it counts - hitting Welsh Labour. Sturgeon actually very good (except on Climate Change where only RBL and more-so Lucas shone). RBL fair, where it counts, against the Sunak who was cringeworthy like a robot. Swinson - better than previously. Her positioning (and Adam Price's) at the edge makes it logistically harder for them to jump in, it seems.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
Well they would say that wouldnt they
But they haven't. They are in panic in their northern seats
I haven’t seen much in media saying they panicking up north, in fact in media about them feeling quietly confident holding on there. The big yougov seemed to back this too?
Having said that a Tory majority is fine margins, just 9 gains from each region would be massive.
***** SHOCK HORROR ***** Tonight, Electoral Calculus has the Tories winning a wafer-thin majority of just 12 seats with them on 331 seats, Labour on 235 and the LibDems on 16. God knows what polls they are basing this forecast on, less than 48 hours after YouGov's supposedly wondrous MRP giving the Blue Team a majority of 68!
Incidentally, right now Spreadex's spread on a Tory Majority is 65.2 -73.4 seats, i.e. a mid spread of 69.3 seats. Is there a decent bit of value in selling at 65.2 seats? ... The downside on there being a larger majority is starting to look quite limited?
The canvassing feedbacks and the admitted panic by labour activists in northern seats does seem to give credence to a conservative majority. Some on here are championing a hung parliament after each poll but it does not feel like it to be honest
Which Labour activists are panicking? Reports I've seen have said they think it's going better than headline suggests?
You need to read buzzfeed on the internal panic in the northern labour party
You are getting carried away and wishing a result that is far from certain
I'm not wishing for anything, I'm just just not hearing what you're saying. I've seen the Buzzfeed stuff.
I did call 2017 right - so I have some confidence in my predictions. But we will see where things go from here.
As someone who’s been in your position in the past, all I will say is that it’s usually the hope that kills you.
I'm not certain of a HP don't get me wrong, I just think it's a very distinct possibility.
For me it's between HP and very slim Tory majority.
The whole activists thing I don't really buy because we saw similar behaviour in 2017 and then it all improved in the final days.
I also want to win a bit of money, isn't that why we're all here?
No ... it's why around 5% of us are here! Most BBers have never placed a bet in their lives. In the first few years of the site's existence, there was a good deal of posts involved in swapping betting ideas and the like, but very, very little of this nowadays. Frankly I'm a little surprised Mike ha persevered with the site as it's completely lost its original raison d'etre.
Winners so far certainly not the Tories or Labour .
Get Brexit Done is getting a right kicking .
That’s the big take out so far, the claim brexit can quickly get done is under attack and being called a lie. The central plank of the Tory campaign, get brexit done, the opponents are trying to convince the voters is a big lie.
Who is going to get convinced that it is a lie do you reckon? You've been convinced that it is a lie all along, how many who believe Brexit needs to be 'done' will watch this and say "Brexit done is a lie"?
It’s not wether you believe brexit is a good idea or not thommo, it’s whether brexit will be done and out peoples lives for ever by next February or not. You are right I don’t believe it. Do you believe it? No. You don't believe that either.
Yes I do believe it, so long as there is a healthy Tory majority. We will be out, we will calmly negotiate and implement a subsequent deal to follow the transition which won't be a very big argument (because the Tories will have a healthy majority to implement it) and nobody will be talking about Brexit.
Well that is what the Tories are campaigning on, Nicely succinctly put by you, and the voters believe you Thommo, that a Boris win and brexit brexit brexit will be out their lives for ever. From February they think.
It’s a lie. Another campaign won on a lie.
And the opposition parties are beginning to grapple with the lie now, half way through the campaign with lots of don’t knows still out there.
Brexit will be out of their lives from February. We will be out. Remain will not be a thing anymore.
🙂 I think the games up Thommo
I think so too. Game Over for Remain when Brexit ends.
Okay. 🙂. It’s just this “ Brexit will be out of their lives from February.” Sounds like a policy out a padded cell
I wasn't originally of the view that these debates are pointless but I am going to concede and say I was wrong. A complete waste of time.
I think they're quite insightful for many, we're not their intended audience of course. My housemates and neighbours all mentioned either climate debate or this evening's debates and engaged on the issues raised.
I wasn't originally of the view that these debates are pointless but I am going to concede and say I was wrong. A complete waste of time.
RLB doing badly I take it?
People I spoke to said RBL came across well. Unlike Sunak. That's what counts. She did fail to directly answer many questions (like Sunak and TIce, unlike the others), but compared to Sunak + Tice... Walkover. Being beaten by Sturgeon, Lucas or drawing with Swinson isn't so important to Lab. Being outshone by Price is more damaging.
Swinson's biggest error in the debate this evening was her honesty.
Did you notice she junked the revoke policy, it’s now unless form government the policy is confirmatory vote. It probably was all along, but not as it was sold by PM candidate Swinson.
Significant? It now means LD and labour brexit policy now 4/5ths the same?
To be fair, my understanding of the Lib Dem position throughout the campaign has been Revoke if they win outright, support a second referendum if they don't. One can obviously argue that this effectively amounts to second referendum, because the notion of the Lib Dems forming a majority Government following this election is and always has been ridiculous, but nevertheless there has been no change.
The Lib Dems pretend they won't back a Labour minority Govt headed by Corbyn, but you have to suspect that this is a lie intended to try to keep their soft Tory Remain voters onboard. If a Labour leader were to offer them exactly what they wanted on a second referendum, you have to suspect that they wouldn't be too picky about who that person was.
Vote Lib Dem, get Corbyn.
That is the message the Tories need to hammer home as they head into the home straight.
But most Lib Dem voters would prefer a Corbyn Government (if it meant stopping Brexit) according to polls I've seen
That may be the case. But they're going to vote Lib Dem or perhaps Labour anyway. It's switchers from the Conservatives they need to get to return to the fold.
Ultimately I think the lib dems will continue to be squeezed by the two main parties. It's a shame because it would do the country good to end the duopoly that has dominated the last century or so.
But ultimately most of us don't vote "for" a party, we vote against another one. Labour to stop the evil Tories getting in and Tories to stop Labour from getting in and bankrupting the country.
I'll be voting Conservative next month, even though I have very little trust in Johnson's personality or his policies. I just want to see Corbyn stopped.
If you're voting negatively between Corbyn Labour vs Boris Tory, why would you not vote to encourage a hung parliament? (I.e. not for Conservative, another party dependant upon your seat). I'm curious.
Many people have tried to figure out why Swinson is doing so badly, I think I found why. The problem for Swinson is that she comes off on TV as a spoiled girl.
That’s it!
She’s comes across like a head girl at a minor public school. Very earnest and a bit of a goodie goodie but utterly conventional and uninspired
I think the problem with Jo Swinson is that I don't believe anything she says. She seems to go with the wind.
That is hardly unique to Jo Swinson. Name me a frontline politician you do believe.
How could anyone believe Swinson after the tuition fee scam aimed at young voters.
Can't believe what I've seen about OGH and Warrington. Surely he can't have given his consent for this? It's as wrong as the lies BJ and JC are telling. I've been lurking for years. This is terminal
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Ultimately I think the lib dems will continue to be squeezed by the two main parties. It's a shame because it would do the country good to end the duopoly that has dominated the last century or so.
But ultimately most of us don't vote "for" a party, we vote against another one. Labour to stop the evil Tories getting in and Tories to stop Labour from getting in and bankrupting the country.
I'll be voting Conservative next month, even though I have very little trust in Johnson's personality or his policies. I just want to see Corbyn stopped.
I do not say this as a Tory ramper, merely as an observation of what Electoral Calculus are suggesting - at the moment. I maintain my belief that there's every chance that voters will keep drifting back to Labour in the polls, the leadership ratings for Johnson and Corbyn will continue to narrow, and that a lot of the ex-Labour waverers in the Leave marginals who claim they'll switch sides won't - and that we'll therefore end up with a Hung Parliament again.
Will it impact the election? There will definitely be conspiracy theories flying around like last time.
Last time it may even have helped Labour, certainly in Hastings.
Obv. the Brexit party standing aside in Tory seats is a big benefit electorally - making Tory seats harder to take, but it also makes the election much less close than the reality.
You are getting carried away and wishing a result that is far from certain
In fairness we also don’t know what the offence was - would be different if he had been inside for something unrelated. Though might (and should) open a debate about radicalisation in prison.
I did call 2017 right - so I have some confidence in my predictions. But we will see where things go from here.
Magical
We don't really know, that's the truth.
Wrexham was expected to be Conservative last time, May campaigned a lot there.
If the Conservatives win it, it would be an indication of them getting a majority, but unfortunately it won't be one of the early seats to come in.
For me it's between HP and very slim Tory majority.
The whole activists thing I don't really buy because we saw similar behaviour in 2017 and then it all improved in the final days.
I also want to win a bit of money, isn't that why we're all here?
NEW THREAD
If though farage stood his candidate down, is the candidate now indy or UKIP could get the votes? Yeah you are right in what you posted, it’s made it hard to poll. 😕
Each party certainly has issues when it comes to behaviour of their activists, but when it comes to situations as described in the original post it certainly ties in with my experience.
Others may have different experiences, of course.
Sturgeon actually very good (except on Climate Change where only RBL and more-so Lucas shone).
RBL fair, where it counts, against the Sunak who was cringeworthy like a robot.
Swinson - better than previously. Her positioning (and Adam Price's) at the edge makes it logistically harder for them to jump in, it seems.
Having said that a Tory majority is fine margins, just 9 gains from each region would be massive.
She did fail to directly answer many questions (like Sunak and TIce, unlike the others), but compared to Sunak + Tice... Walkover. Being beaten by Sturgeon, Lucas or drawing with Swinson isn't so important to Lab. Being outshone by Price is more damaging.
How could anyone believe Swinson after the tuition fee scam aimed at young voters.