earlier Battersea and now also Warrington South are clearly going to surprise us on the 12th.... Is OGH offering us odds on his yellows winning either?
The most worrying thing about OGH’s letters is the timing. Unless they are cleverly being sent to postal voters only, they are going out way too early. Letters like that are supposed to land in the week of polling day, as anyone with any sense at LDHQ should already know.
I live in Warrington South and liberals have zero chance here . The town voted leave , and Faisal rashid will be voted out and Andy Carter conservative will win .
Don't tell me a Lib Dem leaflet starts off with a false premise? deary me...
Lib dems: Lies are fine, as long as they're not on the side of a bus.
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP"
(apart from 2010 and 2015)
I posted this here last night, I no longer live in Warrington South but did in 2015 and was very disappointed David lost in 2017 he was a very good guy. Bizarre telling Tories they have no chance in a seat they are odds on favourites for. The Lib Dems are closer to the Greens in odds, ie no chance:
I can't think what convinced OGH to send this out to this constituency. The only thing that I can think is that OGH and the Lib Dems are trying to act as a spoiler so that Corbyn's Labour can hold the seat. Nothing else makes sense.
Warrington South 2017
Labour 29,994 Conservative 27,445 Liberal Democrats 3,339
Simply does square with...
"The election in Warrington South is between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats."
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP."
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
Try and watch the debate from the perspective of who is the better debater without being colored by either their views or use. I’m trying to watch it dispassionately to see if anybody can swing votes.
Only realised tonight how popular the Lib Dems are here in the suburbs of East London. Only a vote for the yellow peril can stop the Tories, that's for sure
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
The most recent comparable election is the General Election, we all know that unless Nigel Farage is going to be PM due to the Brexit Party winning across the country. Do you seriously believe the Liberal Democrats have much better odds than the Tories at winning Warrington South? 😂 What about Warrington South screams this is between the Labour and Lib Dem Parties and the odds-on-favourite Tories are a wasted vote?
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
If you feel like that stop using his site to attack him and go somewhere else
Try and watch the debate from the perspective of who is the better debater without being colored by either their views or use. I’m trying to watch it dispassionately to see if anybody can swing votes.
You’re right, a debate is best approached with a view to be persuaded by the unexpected BUT
In reality how many neutral observers will be watching? I’ve gone for Mars on Netflix (On the basis of Ep.1, recommended) and I’m interested in politics.
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
If you feel like that stop using his site to attack him and go somewhere else
I respect Our Genial Host a lot, that is why I am hoping the Liberal Democrats have taken advantage of his generosity and sent letters to seats he didn't pick. I don't for one second believe he personally picked Warrington South as a likely Lib Dem gain.
I'm guessing they are using his piccy without his knowledge or consent...
Of course they are not. But I rather fear that the permission was a general one and it is some numpty at LDHQ that is deciding where and how it is used. It is an effective technique where there is some logic behind it, but using it everywhere including seats like Hornchurch is just ridiculous.
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
If you feel like that stop using his site to attack him and go somewhere else
Whoaa there! Mr Smithson puts it out there, so he has to expect criticism. He's using the premise of this site as his credentials in the letter.
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
If you feel like that stop using his site to attack him
Why? Are only echo-chamber views welcome? Had Mike not built a deserved reputation for calling out polling methodology errors, his attempt to justify his letter based upon a low turnout non-general election ballot could have been put down to lack of knowledge. But we all know it was a deliberate attempt to deceive and he knows better.
Try and watch the debate from the perspective of who is the better debater without being colored by either their views or use. I’m trying to watch it dispassionately to see if anybody can swing votes.
Lucas. That straight to camera PPB she did the other night was different class. No other party leader could have done it.
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
If you feel like that stop using his site to attack him and go somewhere else
I'm guessing they are using his piccy without his knowledge or consent...
Of course they are not. But I rather fear that the permission was a general one and it is some numpty at LDHQ that is deciding where and how it is used. It is an effective technique where there is some logic behind it, but using it everywhere including seats like Hornchurch is just ridiculous.
That's what I hope although the letter certainly doesn't give the impression it was LDHQ numpty who decided it rather than him. OGH has a great and well deserved and well cultivated reputation that has been built up over years, letters like this in seats the LDs aren't even competitive in don't fit that.
Mum: "Who's this in the glasses?" Sunil: "Rebecca Long-Bailey, mum. They're saying she's a likely successor to Corbyn." Mum: "What? Where did they get this bimbo?"
Just to let you know she hasn't slagged off Jo so far this evening
I don’t want to come across as Dr Terrible, but this dogs dinner of a debate is truly diabolical. No ones answering questions, just amateurishly delivering rehearsed attack lines. All the presenter and broadcaster really wants debating there is a Tory and labour representative.
Try and watch the debate from the perspective of who is the better debater without being colored by either their views or use. I’m trying to watch it dispassionately to see if anybody can swing votes.
Lucas. That straight to camera PPB she did the other night was different class. No other party leader could have done it.
Yes, she is good. A class act. The Tory guy has no presence. Surely not a serious tip this morning. RLB not doing badly, Swinson and Sturgeon a bit anonymous.
Mum: "Who's this in the glasses?" Sunil: "Rebecca Long-Bailey, mum. They're saying she's a likely successor to Corbyn." Mum: "What? Where did they get this bimbo?"
Just to let who know she hasn't slagged off Jo so far this evening
Bimbo?
RLB thinking on her feet and responding quite smartly, but looking at her feet the whole time. What’s that all about.
I don’t want to come across as Dr Terrible, but this dogs dinner of a debate is truly diabolical. No ones answering questions, just amateurishly delivering rehearsed attack lines. All the presenter and broadcaster really wants debating there is a Tory and labour representative.
A true democratic view just let the two old parties slag it off and exclude alternative views. That’s what they want that’s what the depend on.
Try and watch the debate from the perspective of who is the better debater without being colored by either their views or use. I’m trying to watch it dispassionately to see if anybody can swing votes.
Lucas. That straight to camera PPB she did the other night was different class. No other party leader could have done it.
Yes, she is good. A class act. The Tory guy has no presence. Surely not a serious tip this morning. RLB not doing badly, Swinson and Sturgeon a bit anonymous.
RLB is fighting her corner well. No one has heard of the Tory bloke or the UKIP and Welsh fellas. Sturgeon, Lucas and Swinson can't get a word in. Labour winning here!
Mum: "Who's this in the glasses?" Sunil: "Rebecca Long-Bailey, mum. They're saying she's a likely successor to Corbyn." Mum: "What? Where did they get this bimbo?"
Just to let who know she hasn't slagged off Jo so far this evening
Bimbo?
RLB thinking on her feet and responding quite smartly, but looking at her feet the whole time. What’s that all about.
I don’t want to come across as Dr Terrible, but this dogs dinner of a debate is truly diabolical. No ones answering questions, just amateurishly delivering rehearsed attack lines. All the presenter and broadcaster really wants debating there is a Tory and labour representative.
So much for plural democracy then. We get just two choices because that's all the broadcasters can cope with. It seems the electorate struggle with more than two choices as well.
I find it amazing how Caroline Lucas has managed to remodel herself as a voice for remain when she was one of the very few non Tories arguing for a EU referendum to take place.
I don’t want to come across as Dr Terrible, but this dogs dinner of a debate is truly diabolical. No ones answering questions, just amateurishly delivering rehearsed attack lines. All the presenter and broadcaster really wants debating there is a Tory and labour representative.
A true democratic view just let the two old parties slag it off and exclude alternative views. That’s what they want that’s what the depend on.
Are you attacking me, or what I sense from this set up.
Mum: "Who's this in the glasses?" Sunil: "Rebecca Long-Bailey, mum. They're saying she's a likely successor to Corbyn." Mum: "What? Where did they get this bimbo?"
Just to let who know she hasn't slagged off Jo so far this evening
Bimbo?
RLB thinking on her feet and responding quite smartly, but looking at her feet the whole time. What’s that all about.
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
If you feel like that stop using his site to attack him and go somewhere else
I think its fair to ask what has happened here.
Mike actually supporting and promoting such misleading rubbish means his credibility is utterly shot. Very, very silly.
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
So you're following up your lies by insulting our intelligences? If you're embracing deceit as an electoral tactic you might as well go ahead and own it.
It’s simply an outright lie. Sad, but par for the course these days. Desperate stuff from the Lib Dems, and hugely damaging to Mike’s reputation. Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
If you feel like that stop using his site to attack him and go somewhere else
I think its fair to ask what has happened here.
Mike actually supporting and promoting such misleading rubbish means his credibility is utterly shot. Very, very silly.
What worries me most is that we- his user base- are partly responsible for giving him the platform he's abusing here.
Try and watch the debate from the perspective of who is the better debater without being colored by either their views or use. I’m trying to watch it dispassionately to see if anybody can swing votes.
Lucas. That straight to camera PPB she did the other night was different class. No other party leader could have done it.
Yes, she is good. A class act. The Tory guy has no presence. Surely not a serious tip this morning. RLB not doing badly, Swinson and Sturgeon a bit anonymous.
Coming to the conclusion that every party standing enough candidates to theoretically win a majority should have
An Andrew Neil interview, a question time appearance for an hour and after that individual interviews with whoever they please. The debate tonight isn’t taking us anywhere and wasn’t when Johnson and corbyn copped out. Maybe they could learn from the US how to run these events.
Winners so far certainly not the Tories or Labour .
Get Brexit Done is getting a right kicking .
That’s the big take out so far, the claim brexit can quickly get done is under attack and being called a lie. The central plank of the Tory campaign, get brexit done, the opponents are trying to convince the voters is a big lie.
He may have planned to repeat the trick at the last minute again.
But with the Prime Minister dealing with the aftermath of a terrorist attack and both Corbyn and Johnson suspending campaigning tonight, he couldn’t have rocked up. There were only downsides for him if he had, and he couldn’t have accused Boris of not turning up tonight with any sense of decency.
In the most recent election in Chipping Barnet, on May 23rd. the LDs were 11% ahead of the tories and 13% ahead of LAB.
If anyone else on this board used that as an excuse you would have shot them down in an instant. You insult every single person on here by making such an argument when you know it is utterly misleading and wrong.
To be absolutely fair to both Johnson and Corbyn I don't think that applies in this case because:
(a) May ran away from all of these set-pieces, Johnson has done the first head-to-head with Corbyn already and has the second to come; and, more importantly...
(b) In the immediate aftermath of a terrorist atrocity one might consider that the Prime Minister would have more vital things to do than attend a slanging match. If Corbyn were to have changed his mind and rocked up at the last minute then Johnson would not only have been equipped with the perfect excuse for not following suit, but the Tories could plausibly have argued that Corbyn was exploiting the circumstances (in which innocent people have died) to try to score cheap political points off the Prime Minister
Thus Corbyn, having elected to nominate his own substitute too in advance of this debate, was arguably correct not to have committed the volte face that this particular commentator bemoans.
Mum: "Who's this in the glasses?" Sunil: "Rebecca Long-Bailey, mum. They're saying she's a likely successor to Corbyn." Mum: "What? Where did they get this bimbo?"
Just to let who know she hasn't slagged off Jo so far this evening
Bimbo?
RLB thinking on her feet and responding quite smartly, but looking at her feet the whole time. What’s that all about.
He may have planned to repeat the trick at the last minute again.
But with the Prime Minister dealing with the aftermath of a terrorist attack and both Corbyn and Johnson suspending campaigning tonight, he couldn’t have rocked up. There were only downsides for him if he had, and he couldn’t have accused Boris of not turning up tonight with any sense of decency.
I doubt very much that the PM is dealing in detail with this terrorist attack in fact I would hope he is not. As long as he is happy it is being handled correctly he should keep out of the way.
He may have planned to repeat the trick at the last minute again.
But with the Prime Minister dealing with the aftermath of a terrorist attack and both Corbyn and Johnson suspending campaigning tonight, he couldn’t have rocked up. There were only downsides for him if he had, and he couldn’t have accused Boris of not turning up tonight with any sense of decency.
I doubt very much that the PM is dealing in detail with this terrorist attack in fact I would hope he is not.
He ducked the event well before the incident. Probably making a bus from an old wine box tonight.
The Smithson letter has been received here in St Albans.
Is it a two horse race ?
Yes - he’s backing Plaid to beat the Conservative in St Albans, based upon last year’s election of Dai Davies to the tea committee of the cricket club 2nd XIs.
Winners so far certainly not the Tories or Labour .
Get Brexit Done is getting a right kicking .
That’s the big take out so far, the claim brexit can quickly get done is under attack and being called a lie. The central plank of the Tory campaign, get brexit done, the opponents are trying to convince the voters is a big lie.
With 5 of the 7 attendees being devoted to overturning Brexit, are you surprised? It is the entire purpose of this ridiculous spectacle.
He may have planned to repeat the trick at the last minute again.
But with the Prime Minister dealing with the aftermath of a terrorist attack and both Corbyn and Johnson suspending campaigning tonight, he couldn’t have rocked up. There were only downsides for him if he had, and he couldn’t have accused Boris of not turning up tonight with any sense of decency.
I doubt very much that the PM is dealing in detail with this terrorist attack in fact I would hope he is not. As long as he is happy it is being handled correctly he should keep out of the way.
He will be being briefed. We do not yet know that there aren’t wider security or intelligence implications and an ongoing incident that could escalate.
Even if he hadn’t declined earlier, I know where I would rather the PM was tonight than joining this bun-fight of the pygmies.
To be absolutely fair to both Johnson and Corbyn I don't think that applies in this case because:
(a) May ran away from all of these set-pieces, Johnson has done the first head-to-head with Corbyn already and has the second to come; and, more importantly...
(b) In the immediate aftermath of a terrorist atrocity one might consider that the Prime Minister would have more vital things to do than attend a slanging match. If Corbyn were to have changed his mind and rocked up at the last minute then Johnson would not only have been equipped with the perfect excuse for not following suit, but the Tories could plausibly have argued that Corbyn was exploiting the circumstances (in which innocent people have died) to try to score cheap political points off the Prime Minister
Thus Corbyn, having elected to nominate his own substitute too in advance of this debate, was arguably correct not to have committed the volte face that this particular commentator bemoans.
Generally a fair comment, but I really hope Johnson is not doing anything other than mouth platitudes in the aftermath of the attack. It is when Boris tries to do things that they go awfully wrong. Let others (those who are competent) take action. Boris needs to stick to what he does best - waffle to the media.
To be absolutely fair to both Johnson and Corbyn I don't think that applies in this case because:
(a) May ran away from all of these set-pieces, Johnson has done the first head-to-head with Corbyn already and has the second to come; and, more importantly...
(b) In the immediate aftermath of a terrorist atrocity one might consider that the Prime Minister would have more vital things to do than attend a slanging match. If Corbyn were to have changed his mind and rocked up at the last minute then Johnson would not only have been equipped with the perfect excuse for not following suit, but the Tories could plausibly have argued that Corbyn was exploiting the circumstances (in which innocent people have died) to try to score cheap political points off the Prime Minister
Thus Corbyn, having elected to nominate his own substitute too in advance of this debate, was arguably correct not to have committed the volte face that this particular commentator bemoans.
Bloody hell how did he know there was going to be a terrorist attack today that would take his undivided attention? He should have been scheduled to attend, he wasn’t terror attack in this scenario is irrelevant.
He may have planned to repeat the trick at the last minute again.
But with the Prime Minister dealing with the aftermath of a terrorist attack and both Corbyn and Johnson suspending campaigning tonight, he couldn’t have rocked up. There were only downsides for him if he had, and he couldn’t have accused Boris of not turning up tonight with any sense of decency.
I doubt very much that the PM is dealing in detail with this terrorist attack in fact I would hope he is not. As long as he is happy it is being handled correctly he should keep out of the way.
He will be being briefed. We do not yet know that there aren’t wider security or intelligence implications and an ongoing incident that could escalate.
Even if he hadn’t declined earlier, I know where I would rather the PM was tonight than joining this bun-fight of the pygmies.
Seems a shame to miss the one bunfight where he might just be able to hold his own, though?
Winners so far certainly not the Tories or Labour .
Get Brexit Done is getting a right kicking .
That’s the big take out so far, the claim brexit can quickly get done is under attack and being called a lie. The central plank of the Tory campaign, get brexit done, the opponents are trying to convince the voters is a big lie.
With 5 of the 7 attendees being devoted to overturning Brexit, are you surprised? It is the entire purpose of this ridiculous spectacle.
That is good for the Tories. It means they get to keep the bulk of the Leave vote and Labour get grouped with the SNP.
She is in a different class to most other politicians in the UK. Even when she is off her game she is still better than most others.
So why is it used by Labour’s opponents that to allow her to support you in government is so dangerous and disgusting? Tories won in 2015 by putting wee EdM in her pocket.
I don't quite see why Mike Smithson has to put up with Labour & Tory party supporters questioning his integrity.
I mean, the Labour & Tory parties are running extremely duplicitous campaigns themselves.
When you are clean, you have earned the right to comment on other people's dirt. But if you are covered in ordure yourself ... then you should shut up.
Mum: "Who's this in the glasses?" Sunil: "Rebecca Long-Bailey, mum. They're saying she's a likely successor to Corbyn." Mum: "What? Where did they get this bimbo?"
Just to let you know she hasn't slagged off Jo so far this evening
I have heard RLB called many things (harridan, Stalin's daughter, boredom in human form etc), but I have never heard her called a bimbo. Very disrespectful to the stars of all those reality programmes.
Good evening all. If Corbyn has given up as suggested by Tom Peck I reckon he needs a talking to from PB's own Man called Horse and Mysticrose. It's on, as Horse keeps reminding us.
Comments
Labour 29,994
Conservative 27,445
Liberal Democrats 3,339
Simply does square with...
"The election in Warrington South is between the Labour and the Liberal Democrats."
"You know from previous elections that a vote for anyone other than the Liberal Democrats can end up with a Labour MP."
Surely he can’t have been so foolish / brazen?
In reality how many neutral observers will be watching? I’ve gone for Mars on Netflix (On the basis of Ep.1, recommended) and I’m interested in politics.
Had Mike not built a deserved reputation for calling out polling methodology errors, his attempt to justify his letter based upon a low turnout non-general election ballot could have been put down to lack of knowledge.
But we all know it was a deliberate attempt to deceive and he knows better.
Sunil: "Rebecca Long-Bailey, mum. They're saying she's a likely successor to Corbyn."
Mum: "What? Where did they get this bimbo?"
Just to let you know she hasn't slagged off Jo so far this evening
The Tory guy has no presence. Surely not a serious tip this morning.
RLB not doing badly, Swinson and Sturgeon a bit anonymous.
RLB thinking on her feet and responding quite smartly, but looking at her feet the whole time. What’s that all about.
Caroline Lucas clear winner so far.
Now that you've retired from the Commission I'm sure you'll have plenty more time to post . here.
It seems the electorate struggle with more than two choices as well.
Get Brexit Done is getting a right kicking .
An Andrew Neil interview, a question time appearance for an hour and after that individual interviews with whoever they please. The debate tonight isn’t taking us anywhere and wasn’t when Johnson and corbyn copped out. Maybe they could learn from the US how to run these events.
But with the Prime Minister dealing with the aftermath of a terrorist attack and both Corbyn and Johnson suspending campaigning tonight, he couldn’t have rocked up. There were only downsides for him if he had, and he couldn’t have accused Boris of not turning up tonight with any sense of decency.
(a) May ran away from all of these set-pieces, Johnson has done the first head-to-head with Corbyn already and has the second to come; and, more importantly...
(b) In the immediate aftermath of a terrorist atrocity one might consider that the Prime Minister would have more vital things to do than attend a slanging match. If Corbyn were to have changed his mind and rocked up at the last minute then Johnson would not only have been equipped with the perfect excuse for not following suit, but the Tories could plausibly have argued that Corbyn was exploiting the circumstances (in which innocent people have died) to try to score cheap political points off the Prime Minister
Thus Corbyn, having elected to nominate his own substitute too in advance of this debate, was arguably correct not to have committed the volte face that this particular commentator bemoans.
Corrected it for you. I would like to see that.
Even if he hadn’t declined earlier, I know where I would rather the PM was tonight than joining this bun-fight of the pygmies.
“ How to Protect (or Destroy) Your Reputation Online: The Essential Guide to Avoid Digital Damage, Lock Down Your Brand, and Defend Your Business”
Oh and the libdems get grouped with Corbyn.
I mean, the Labour & Tory parties are running extremely duplicitous campaigns themselves.
When you are clean, you have earned the right to comment on other people's dirt. But if you are covered in ordure yourself ... then you should shut up.