Can anyone suggest any fun but obscure drinking game rules for election night?
I’ve got the usual seat losses of leaders. Newcastle beats Sunderland in the race to declare first. Etc.
Any ideas?
Down a shot every time someone announces themselves as the "Acting" Returning Officer.
Did the actual returning officer fancy an early night or what?
Isn't the actual returning officer the high sheriff or something.. totally honorary? Pretty sure their actual duties centre around pricking the election writ with an ornamental cocktail stick or something. It's like the Vice Chancellor being the actual boss of a university because the real one's a comedian. Or in Chester's case, Gyles Brandreth.
(Also in unitary authorities, you potentially need several from the same council at different counts)
I will see whether I get any reply and if the lovely Tulip drops by I can always ask her, of course......
I claim a little more than that! I fused what I know is the symbolic principle being elevated - a women's body belongs to her - with a 'thinking cap' assumption that in practice late stage terminations will not be purely down to the pregnant woman.
But that still leaves the question of whether abortion will be available on demand (a) for any reason at all e.g. I don't want to have a girl; and (b) at all stages of the pregnancy eg at 8 months 3 weeks.
The first of those sounds like the hard part they haven't thought through....the second surely not.
I have to confess that I find something very troubling about getting rid of a baby simply because it is a girl. It reinforces misogynistic views about women, particularly in some communities, a belief that women are not the equal of men, are not worth anything or not as much. How can a feminist - or, frankly, any self-respecting woman - not be troubled by this?
The one upside to a Johnson majority is that then hopefully the Labour Party will have the sense to put Jeremy Corbyn out of our misery (and hopefully not replace him with someone equally useless)
I suspect if Labour don't "wise up" this time and put someone sensible in as leader they really will be at risk of being replaced by the Lib-Dems as the official Opposition in 2023/2024.
Think the public will leave them absolutely crystal clear that they're in the last chance saloon in three weeks time...
It will happen when those who wish it vote for it to happen, rather than bemoaning the choice on offer but leaving the actual voting to others.
I don't think people will put up with not having a realistic alternative to the Tories indefinitely. If Labour aren't capable of making themselves a sensible alternative government the public will inevitably have to give another party a shot at becoming an alternative government.
I suspect that the intention - at least on the part of some - may be to remove the requirement to have the approval of 2 doctors.
But that still leaves the question of whether abortion will be available on demand (a) for any reason at all e.g. I don't want to have a girl; and (b) at all stages of the pregnancy eg at 8 months 3 weeks.
Let’s see what clarification is forthcoming, if any.
I am sure that (1) is nearer the mark than (2).
But, yes, let's see.
If either your (a) or (b) are in substance true I will do more than eat my sock. I will resign from the party. I might even vote Lib Dem in future.
I'm really starting to wonder how Labour are going to manage the competing demands from all the special interest groups they're cultivating. We've already seen a split open up on the Muslim/LGBT front with regards to education, and the feminist/trans rights situation seems to get more complicated by the day. It's surely only a matter of time before we get animal welfare right vs Muslims (and Jews, not that that's likely to matter) on ritual slaughter, and potentially a parallel issue on circumcision. I guess they'll all stay together at least as long as they can agree they hate the Tories more than anyone else.
Labour would be well-advised not to let questions like "so a strapping six-footer with a beard and workboots can walk into a ladies changing room and take his clothes off because he self-identifies as a woman?" ...become an election issue outside the bounds of Mumsnet and Twitter.
Because my suspicion is Corbyn would soon wish the reanimated corpses of Yasser Arafat and Martin McGuinness were in his shadow cabinet and appearing on Question Time for him.
Womens’ rights are all too easily pushed aside when some other noisier group comes along.
Wasn't there an issue a year or so back about some rapist who self-identified as a woman and therefore got sent to a women's prison - with predictable consequences?
The news on Labour’s abortion policy must be wrong or misinterpreted, surely?
I would give them the benefit of the doubt on the content, but would expect some clarification.
It may be ambiguous, badly worded, mischievously misrepresented or misunderstood. I do not believe they are so unconnected to life, morality and reality to propose a full term - 1 day abortion limit.
You can read the precise wording they have chosen in their manifesto. It says on page 48: “We will uphold women’s reproductive rights and decriminalise abortions..
It would have been easy to add the words “within the existing time limits”. But this has not been done. So either it is an oversight. Or deliberate - which seems to fit with the explanation given by the Labour spokesman today. Or maybe they do not understand the existing law. Who can say?
But it is not a wildly unreasonable reading of the manifesto’s own words to think that Labour intend making it lawful to have abortions right up to birth.
Quite incredible to me that the abortion of healthy unborn babies that were the result of consensual sex is allowed at all
It's a difficult one, isn't it. Personally, I would allow abortions up to the twelfth trimester, but no later.
Twelfth trimester is 36 months!
Yes, I'd draw the line at the point they can start speaking in proper sentences.
From my experience that would overlap with being able to vote in some cases...
Redcar is available at 13/4 at Unibet for a Tory win.
I could see it being close on present form, and Redcar likes to swing wildly, so I've had a taste.
Could be the Bath GE2015 of GE2019.
The regional (Tory) mayor had announcements this week regarding the compulsory purchase of the steel works site and the creation of jobs.
I understand the former - the latter is sadly more hope than reality (with the lack of communication and transport links getting industry there is going to be hard work) but it does mean the Tory candidate will being looked upon favourably at the moment.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
''look I know that Corbyn guy is a bit of a radical, and his mate McDonnell is a bit tasty, but elect me and I'll have a word...''
That is really very good. Slight problem is that she has the very unattractive ghost of Comrade Jeremy to haunt what would otherwise have been a very good pitch.
Good PPB but not sure the metoo movement would be over impressed
Can anyone suggest any fun but obscure drinking game rules for election night?
I’ve got the usual seat losses of leaders. Newcastle beats Sunderland in the race to declare first. Etc.
Any ideas?
A shot for any swing in xs of 10% between winner and second place A shot on hearing selected banker phrases 'a challenging night' 'obviously we are disappointed' etc (maybe shot the first time uttered) Down your drink when any multiple of 100 seats reached
Yard of ale for the big majority 326
A shot for each recount. A shot if Cabinet Member/Shadow Cabinet Member loses seat. A double if independent takes seat. A shot for each corrected result - Con take Bootle.
Mormon version: a shot for every Brexit Party gain. Otherwise, water.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
''look I know that Corbyn guy is a bit of a radical, and his mate McDonnell is a bit tasty, but elect me and I'll have a word...''
That is really very good. Slight problem is that she has the very unattractive ghost of Comrade Jeremy to haunt what would otherwise have been a very good pitch.
Yes, that's excellent. Positive, rather than just being twattish about the other side. Not sure how Tory wives will react to 'vote for me and I will flirt with your husbands' but I liked it. Still, Mrs. Candidate, you're proposing to put those nutters in power and that rather negates any positive message you might have. But you have at least put a very good little vid together.
Can anyone suggest any fun but obscure drinking game rules for election night?
I’ve got the usual seat losses of leaders. Newcastle beats Sunderland in the race to declare first. Etc.
Any ideas?
Down a shot every time someone announces themselves as the "Acting" Returning Officer.
Did the actual returning officer fancy an early night or what?
Isn't the actual returning officer the high sheriff or something.. totally honorary? Pretty sure their actual duties centre around pricking the election writ with an ornamental cocktail stick or something. It's like the Vice Chancellor being the actual boss of a university because the real one's a comedian. Or in Chester's case, Gyles Brandreth.
(Also in unitary authorities, you potentially need several from the same council at different counts)
Have a double every time the Lib Dems increase their seats above the current number.
I'm really starting to wonder how Labour are going to manage the competing demands from all the special interest groups they're cultivating. We've already seen a split open up on the Muslim/LGBT front with regards to education, and the feminist/trans rights situation seems to get more complicated by the day. It's surely only a matter of time before we get animal welfare right vs Muslims (and Jews, not that that's likely to matter) on ritual slaughter, and potentially a parallel issue on circumcision. I guess they'll all stay together at least as long as they can agree they hate the Tories more than anyone else.
Labour would be well-advised not to let questions like "so a strapping six-footer with a beard and workboots can walk into a ladies changing room and take his clothes off because he self-identifies as a woman?" ...become an election issue outside the bounds of Mumsnet and Twitter.
Because my suspicion is Corbyn would soon wish the reanimated corpses of Yasser Arafat and Martin McGuinness were in his shadow cabinet and appearing on Question Time for him.
Womens’ rights are all too easily pushed aside when some other noisier group comes along.
Wasn't there an issue a year or so back about some rapist who self-identified as a woman and therefore got sent to a women's prison - with predictable consequences?
I live in Daventry constituency and I can honestly say that in the twenty five years I`ve lived here I`ve never once had a polical candidate knock at my door or, for that matter, been asked to participate in a political survey.
Starting to feel offended.
I think we've had one in 22 years (a Tory trying to get the seat back after a couple of terms of New Labour). Mind you, given we're virtually the last house in a mahoosive constituency, and a mile away from the nearest village, I'll cut them some slack.
Never had a canvasser. Even if Labour get reduced to 100 seats this will be one of them, so I don't think anyone tries very hard. There was a by-election five years ago mind, and I did actually see the Tory candidate and his agent on our road choosing an apparently random selection of houses to visit (presumably there was some method to it) but I had to chase him down to get him to seek my vote.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
I'm actually defending him and suggesting the media shouldn't be publishing hit pieces on people just for being wrong. As in 'the tabloid mocking was superfluous and unecessary' The lynch mob was sarcasm, which would be obvious if you'd read the exchange rather than just the username and decided to troll on that basis
Oh but I did read the exchange. You were vigorously defending this poor target of the evil tabloid press. And from this it was clear that you would have felt exactly the same if the target had been some equivalent lefty ignoramus and the attack had been in, say, the Mail. Hence my heartfelt contribution.
At the moment, for what it's worth, I've backed a high turnout, Scottish Conservatives to do pretty well (hold station), and the Conservatives to get less rather than more on the under/over market. (About 339).
Can anyone suggest any fun but obscure drinking game rules for election night?
I’ve got the usual seat losses of leaders. Newcastle beats Sunderland in the race to declare first. Etc.
Any ideas?
A shot for any swing in xs of 10% between winner and second place A shot on hearing selected banker phrases 'a challenging night' 'obviously we are disappointed' etc (maybe shot the first time uttered) Down your drink when any multiple of 100 seats reached
Yard of ale for the big majority 326
A shot for each recount. A shot if Cabinet Member/Shadow Cabinet Member loses seat. A double if independent takes seat. A shot for each corrected result - Con take Bootle.
Mormon version: a shot for every Brexit Party gain. Otherwise, water.
Can anyone suggest any fun but obscure drinking game rules for election night?
I’ve got the usual seat losses of leaders. Newcastle beats Sunderland in the race to declare first. Etc.
Any ideas?
Down a shot every time someone announces themselves as the "Acting" Returning Officer.
Did the actual returning officer fancy an early night or what?
Isn't the actual returning officer the high sheriff or something.. totally honorary? Pretty sure their actual duties centre around pricking the election writ with an ornamental cocktail stick or something. It's like the Vice Chancellor being the actual boss of a university because the real one's a comedian. Or in Chester's case, Gyles Brandreth.
(Also in unitary authorities, you potentially need several from the same council at different counts)
Have a double every time the Lib Dems increase their seats above the current number.
Down a yard of ale when Boris gets his majority.
Eat a pickled onion each time a Brexit deposit gets saved.....
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I'm actually defending him and suggesting the media shouldn't be publishing hit pieces on people just for being wrong. As in 'the tabloid mocking was superfluous and unecessary' The lynch mob was sarcasm, which would be obvious if you'd read the exchange rather than just the username and decided to troll on that basis
Oh but I did read the exchange. You were vigorously defending this poor target of the evil tabloid press. And from this it was clear that you would have felt exactly the same if the target had been some equivalent lefty ignoramus and the attack had been in, say, the Mail. Hence my heartfelt contribution.
You didn't think I was being sarcastic, did you?
I would indeed, the press do not need to attack the public.
The one upside to a Johnson majority is that then hopefully the Labour Party will have the sense to put Jeremy Corbyn out of our misery (and hopefully not replace him with someone equally useless)
The best result ( post event) of the election would be that either someone sane like Kinnock jr, Benn jr, Cooper etc takes over or 150 of the leave and set up shop/join the Lib Dem’s.
We can then disagree to our hearts content about whatever but still sleep at night.
Yes but the 150 or so sane ones are currently silent on the issue of JC's leadership and actively trying to make him PM. What price principles?
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I've just been poking around in the remote regions of the LibDem manifesto to see what's there (someone has to...). I was expecting my hackles to be raised, which to be fair they were in the obvious cases such as votes for children, mandatory gender-neutral school uniforms, and similar nonsense, but overall it looks pretty sensible. What I liked about it most is that it doesn't promise instant magical solutions to difficult problems, but instead in some of the difficult areas it proposes measures which seem to have some hope of actually improving things - for example on reducing reoffending, and measures to reduce violent crime.
I have no real issues with the Lib Dems manifesto
Lots of top Conservatives seem to like the Lib Dems in this election. Of course, they were top Conservatives in the days when Conservatives were competent, honest and - to a greater or lesser extent - caring. It`s a great shame that the Conservative Party been taken over by a gang of buffoons, chancers and [MODERATED]
I suspect that the intention - at least on the part of some - may be to remove the requirement to have the approval of 2 doctors.
But that still leaves the question of whether abortion will be available on demand (a) for any reason at all e.g. I don't want to have a girl; and (b) at all stages of the pregnancy eg at 8 months 3 weeks.
Let’s see what clarification is forthcoming, if any.
I am sure that (1) is nearer the mark than (2).
But, yes, let's see.
If either your (a) or (b) are in substance true I will do more than eat my sock. I will resign from the party. I might even vote Lib Dem in future.
Here's the LibDem manifesto "We believe that everyone has a right to make independent decisions over their reproductive health without interference by the state, and that access to reproductive healthcare is a human right. We will:
- Decriminalise abortion across the UK while retaining the existing 24-week limit and legislate for access to abortion facilities within Northern Ireland. - Enforce safe zones around abortion clinics, make intimidation or harassment of abortion service users and staff outside clinics, or on common transport routes to these services, illegal. - Fund abortion clinics to provide their services free of charge to service users regardless of nationality or residency. "
Can anyone suggest any fun but obscure drinking game rules for election night?
I’ve got the usual seat losses of leaders. Newcastle beats Sunderland in the race to declare first. Etc.
Any ideas?
Down a shot every time someone announces themselves as the "Acting" Returning Officer.
Did the actual returning officer fancy an early night or what?
Isn't the actual returning officer the high sheriff or something.. totally honorary? Pretty sure their actual duties centre around pricking the election writ with an ornamental cocktail stick or something. It's like the Vice Chancellor being the actual boss of a university because the real one's a comedian. Or in Chester's case, Gyles Brandreth.
(Also in unitary authorities, you potentially need several from the same council at different counts)
Have a double every time the Lib Dems increase their seats above the current number.
Down a yard of ale when Boris gets his majority.
Eat a pickled onion each time a Brexit deposit gets saved.....
A bottle of Ch. Lafite Rothschild 1982 if either Bozo or Corbo lose their seats.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
Readers with a memory (there must be at least one...oh, who am I kidding) might recall that I bemoaned the conversion of UK politics to American culture war politics and expressed sentiments like "we'll be banging on about abortion and gun control next". I am somewhat distressed, but not in the least bit surprised, to see half of that prediction come true...
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
In Love Actually, he didn't actually get his girl either.
So, the most accurate simile would have been for that Tory voter to run after her down the street, peck her on the cheek, and then go home & keep his poster up.
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
In Love Actually, he didn't actually get his girl either.
So, the most accurate simile would have been for that Tory voter to run after her down the street, peck her on the cheek, and then go home & keep his poster up.
And her to say 'no more' and stop stalking him like in the movie
The one upside to a Johnson majority is that then hopefully the Labour Party will have the sense to put Jeremy Corbyn out of our misery (and hopefully not replace him with someone equally useless)
The best result ( post event) of the election would be that either someone sane like Kinnock jr, Benn jr, Cooper etc takes over or 150 of the leave and set up shop/join the Lib Dem’s.
We can then disagree to our hearts content about whatever but still sleep at night.
Yes but the 150 or so sane ones are currently silent on the issue of JC's leadership and actively trying to make him PM. What price principles?
There's one person to blame and her name is Margaret Beckett. It would be karma if she were to lose her seat this time round.
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
There could still be an early NHS Christmas crisis.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
I think it's quite simple: you're rich if you don't need to work to have a very comfortable lifestyle when you're of working age.
Working hard and earning a very good salary doesn't make you rich. Most people who do so do it to cover living expenses, mortgages, fees and costs.
I floated my definition the other day. £3m in cash and investments over and above main residence. Which pretty much accords with yours. Since that amount should generate a very livable income without the need to work. And I suppose age can be relevant. Having £3m at 80 in a sense makes you richer than having it at 18. Assuming you're up for spending it all, that is. (Could tag on an IHT point here but won't.)
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
We still could have dementia tex redux....
Two caveats that worry me (other than general hubris, as I *always* end up with egg on my face when I fall subject to it):
(1) The donkey vote, Labour waverers could firm up massively in the last few days - "my granddad would turn in his grave" etc. (2) The Remain/LD floaters who put five clothes-pegs on their noses, and possibly use surgical staples too, and switch to Corbyn at the last minute tactically
Either or both of those could mean Boris just falls short, which means another gridlocked Parliament and two referendums next year.
I think it's quite simple: you're rich if you don't need to work to have a very comfortable lifestyle when you're of working age.
Working hard and earning a very good salary doesn't make you rich. Most people who do so do it to cover living expenses, mortgages, fees and costs.
I floated my definition the other day. £3m in cash and investments over and above main residence. Which pretty much accords with yours. Since that amount should generate a very livable income without the need to work. And I suppose age can be relevant. Having £3m at 80 in a sense makes you richer than having it at 18. Assuming you're up for spending it all, that is. (Could tag on an IHT point here but won't.)
Refreshing we agree on something for once, which surprises me given your politics.
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
We still could have dementia tex redux....
Two caveats that worry me (other than general hubris, as I *always* end up with egg on my face when I fall subject to it):
(1) The donkey vote, Labour waverers could firm up massively in the last few days - "my granddad would turn in his grave" etc. (2) The Remain/LD floaters who put five clothes-pegs on their noses, and possibly use surgical staples too, and switch to Corbyn at the last minute tactically
Either or both of those could mean Boris just falls short, which means another gridlocked Parliament and two referendums next year.
Lovely.
A gridlocked parliament would be fine as it would be the "will-o-the-people"
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
There could still be an early NHS Christmas crisis.
I think there already is one, but - so far - it doesn't appear to be moving the dials decisively.
If I were Boris I'd pull another rabbit out the hat on it on Sunday to pre-empt it.
Lower turnout (34% vs 46% last time) undoubtedly worse for the SNP. Also a LDem candidate standing for the first time splitting the anti-Brexit vote(?)
Against that, the final vote transfer of eliminated independent favoured the CON candidate significantly.
I've just been poking around in the remote regions of the LibDem manifesto to see what's there (someone has to...). I was expecting my hackles to be raised, which to be fair they were in the obvious cases such as votes for children, mandatory gender-neutral school uniforms, and similar nonsense, but overall it looks pretty sensible. What I liked about it most is that it doesn't promise instant magical solutions to difficult problems, but instead in some of the difficult areas it proposes measures which seem to have some hope of actually improving things - for example on reducing reoffending, and measures to reduce violent crime.
I have no real issues with the Lib Dems manifesto
Lots of top Conservatives seem to like the Lib Dems in this election. Of course, they were top Conservatives in the days when Conservatives were competent, honest and - to a greater or lesser extent - caring. It`s a great shame that the Conservative Party been taken over by a gang of buffoons, chancers and [MODERATED]
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
In that case I'll let you off! In the office at work this week every vertical surface has been covered in tinsel and every horizontal surface has a Xmas (sic) tree on it. And the Advent calendars have already been raided of anything containing chocolate and/or alcohol. I'm sure Dante has a place for the people who do that.
I'm really starting to wonder how Labour are going to manage the competing demands from all the special interest groups they're cultivating. We've already seen a split open up on the Muslim/LGBT front with regards to education, and the feminist/trans rights situation seems to get more complicated by the day. It's surely only a matter of time before we get animal welfare right vs Muslims (and Jews, not that that's likely to matter) on ritual slaughter, and potentially a parallel issue on circumcision. I guess they'll all stay together at least as long as they can agree they hate the Tories more than anyone else.
Labour would be well-advised not to let questions like "so a strapping six-footer with a beard and workboots can walk into a ladies changing room and take his clothes off because he self-identifies as a woman?" ...become an election issue outside the bounds of Mumsnet and Twitter.
Because my suspicion is Corbyn would soon wish the reanimated corpses of Yasser Arafat and Martin McGuinness were in his shadow cabinet and appearing on Question Time for him.
Womens’ rights are all too easily pushed aside when some other noisier group comes along.
Wasn't there an issue a year or so back about some rapist who self-identified as a woman and therefore got sent to a women's prison - with predictable consequences?
Karen White, I think.
The members at Hampstead Ladies Pond voted by quite a big majority to allow transgenders to frequent the facility on Hampstead Heath. It hasn't been an issue, probably because transgender users are rare. A friend did see one recenlty, and he/she did have a beard. Looked a bit odd apparently, but nobody fainted.
Labour need to urgently clarify their abortion policy if they wish anyone remotely religious (or with a soul) to vote for them. https://righttolife.org.uk/news/labour-pledge-to-introduce-abortion-for-any-reason-up-to-birth/ These things are traditionally matters of conscience for MPs, and public opinion is that late abortions should be more restricted - rather than on-demand at 39 weeks.
ummm the LibDem policy is also to decriminalise abortion (haven't checked other parties yet). Most Conservative MPs chose not to vote against decriminalising abortion in Northern Ireland. So which party should anyone "with a soul vote" for these days?
So ther eis Surely, there is a difference between the decriminalising abortion in NI - and removing the time limit of 23 weeks and 6 days of pregnancy, in line with the Abortion Act 1967?
I don't think so. The Abortion Act 1967 never applied to Northern Ireland. Labour policy would bring England and Wales into line with the situation in Northern Ireland since October this year.
So there is now literally an abortion free-for-all in Northern Ireland, with no time limit? Any woman can turn up in Belfast and ask for a termination at eight and a half months? Just because, say, she doesn't like the sex of her baby?
But dont even think about hurting those foxes!
Killing foxes - evil beyond recognition.
Killing human babies in the womb - yeah, that’s okay, right up to 40 weeks.
So their policy is probably much the same as Canada's has been for decades
So, because another country decides to allow baby-killing, the U.K. should too?
Labour have just opened a massive box belonging to Pandora, if they think that religious groups will just accept this and vote Labour because they always do. There’s a line that they’ve crossed, whereby people of otherwise lapsed religion start identifying themselves as such to oppose policies like abortion on demand.
Bemused that this is always portrayed as a religious issue. I'm a (formally militant) atheist but I'm strongly opposed to late term abortion, or abortion on gender grounds. I would also reduce the maximum term to 22 weeks or so.
If Labour are really proposing 39-week abortion, it's not just the god-botherers who will be appalled.
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
I live in Daventry constituency and I can honestly say that in the twenty five years I`ve lived here I`ve never once had a polical candidate knock at my door or, for that matter, been asked to participate in a political survey.
Starting to feel offended.
I think we've had one in 22 years (a Tory trying to get the seat back after a couple of terms of New Labour). Mind you, given we're virtually the last house in a mahoosive constituency, and a mile away from the nearest village, I'll cut them some slack.
Never had a canvasser. Even if Labour get reduced to 100 seats this will be one of them, so I don't think anyone tries very hard. There was a by-election five years ago mind, and I did actually see the Tory candidate and his agent on our road choosing an apparently random selection of houses to visit (presumably there was some method to it) but I had to chase him down to get him to seek my vote.
Canvassers are not seeking your vote. They are just trying to identify support.
When they go to a selection of houses in the street, this is the already identified support, and they are just confirming that those voters are still on board, and making sure they are going to vote - perhaps thrusting a couple of postal vote application forms into the voter's hands, or even offering a lift to the polling station.
A blanket leaflet drop, on the other hand, is an attempt to win new support. I believe that bar charts are one tool that is occasionally used in such leaflets to persuade/hoodwink* the voters.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
In that case I'll let you off! In the office at work this week every vertical surface has been covered in tinsel and every horizontal surface has a Xmas (sic) tree on it. And the Advent calendars have already been raided of anything containing chocolate and/or alcohol. I'm sure Dante has a place for the people who do that.
Madness! I have a traditional advent calendar. Pictures only,
Here's the LibDem manifesto "We believe that everyone has a right to make independent decisions over their reproductive health without interference by the state, and that access to reproductive healthcare is a human right. We will:
- Decriminalise abortion across the UK while retaining the existing 24-week limit and legislate for access to abortion facilities within Northern Ireland. - Enforce safe zones around abortion clinics, make intimidation or harassment of abortion service users and staff outside clinics, or on common transport routes to these services, illegal. - Fund abortion clinics to provide their services free of charge to service users regardless of nationality or residency. "
I don't think that helps you in case (i)
Abort due purely to gender?
That's bad, IMO, but I would not want to impose my views on this via the criminal law.
I am on the "Women's Right To Choose" side of this argument.
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
I am still cautious but if after the conservative manifesto this weekend the polls and canvassing information continue on the present trend I may just agree that Boris can achieve a majority
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
In that case I'll let you off! In the office at work this week every vertical surface has been covered in tinsel and every horizontal surface has a Xmas (sic) tree on it. And the Advent calendars have already been raided of anything containing chocolate and/or alcohol. I'm sure Dante has a place for the people who do that.
Madness! I have a traditional advent calendar. Pictures only,
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
In that case I'll let you off! In the office at work this week every vertical surface has been covered in tinsel and every horizontal surface has a Xmas (sic) tree on it. And the Advent calendars have already been raided of anything containing chocolate and/or alcohol. I'm sure Dante has a place for the people who do that.
Madness! I have a traditional advent calendar. Pictures only,
Advent calendars start on 1st December!
Yeah, no decorations before Advent (lay or religious versions both acceptable), and come down on the 12th day of Christmas.
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
In that case I'll let you off! In the office at work this week every vertical surface has been covered in tinsel and every horizontal surface has a Xmas (sic) tree on it. And the Advent calendars have already been raided of anything containing chocolate and/or alcohol. I'm sure Dante has a place for the people who do that.
Madness! I have a traditional advent calendar. Pictures only,
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
There does not yet feel like a Corbyn surge, but then I didn't really feel one in 2017 and was staggered that he managed to get over 40%. I would certainly want to wait until this weekend's megapolls before writing off Labour. If there are some single figure leads then I'm sure plenty here on PB will get squeaky bums, and after the Labour manifesto launch I would be surprised if the Tories were able to extend their lead.
The members at Hampstead Ladies Pond voted by quite a big majority to allow transgenders to frequent the facility on Hampstead Heath. It hasn't been an issue, probably because transgender users are rare. A friend did see one recenlty, and he/she did have a beard. Looked a bit odd apparently, but nobody fainted.
I went into the Ladies' by mistake last year in an up-market area, thinking it was unisex - the two women there glanced at me, paused, and I think quite visibly thought "Ah, this must be one of those trans people we read about, we must be tolerant", smiled vaguely and looked away.
In Moscow a few years ago, I remember a woman cleaner coming in and nonchalantly cleaned the floor around another bloke and me using the facilities. I was a bit startled at the time, but on reflection, why do we really get worked about privacy in something which we all do several times a day?
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
(Quick check: did I get those numbers right?)
Arse. I might have got those numbers wrong. I'm on the tablet and everything is securitied to buggery and back. If any kind soul can confirm those numbers or point out the error, I would be grateful.
I'm pretty close to calling this election for the Conservatives, the only question being the size of the majority.
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
There does not yet feel like a Corbyn surge, but then I didn't really feel one in 2017 and was staggered that he managed to get over 40%. I would certainly want to wait until this weekend's megapolls before writing off Labour. If there are some single figure leads then I'm sure plenty here on PB will get squeaky bums, and after the Labour manifesto launch I would be surprised if the Tories were able to extend their lead.
Yes, getting to 40 really was impressive - I thought labour would do better than most predictions on seats but thought 40% of the vote was ridiculous.
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
In that case I'll let you off! In the office at work this week every vertical surface has been covered in tinsel and every horizontal surface has a Xmas (sic) tree on it. And the Advent calendars have already been raided of anything containing chocolate and/or alcohol. I'm sure Dante has a place for the people who do that.
Madness! I have a traditional advent calendar. Pictures only,
Advent calendars start on 1st December!
Apparently not in my office.
They have 24 windows, for the 24 days running up to Christmas!
The one upside to a Johnson majority is that then hopefully the Labour Party will have the sense to put Jeremy Corbyn out of our misery (and hopefully not replace him with someone equally useless)
The best result ( post event) of the election would be that either someone sane like Kinnock jr, Benn jr, Cooper etc takes over or 150 of the leave and set up shop/join the Lib Dem’s.
We can then disagree to our hearts content about whatever but still sleep at night.
Yes but the 150 or so sane ones are currently silent on the issue of JC's leadership and actively trying to make him PM. What price principles?
There's one person to blame and her name is Margaret Beckett. It would be karma if she were to lose her seat this time round.
A shot every time one of Corbyn's 2015 backers loses.
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
Very interesting and thank you for explaining
Don't thank me just yet, @Big_G_NorthWales : I'm trying frantically to see if I got those numbers right! Oh, f*****g security filters!
The members at Hampstead Ladies Pond voted by quite a big majority to allow transgenders to frequent the facility on Hampstead Heath. It hasn't been an issue, probably because transgender users are rare. A friend did see one recenlty, and he/she did have a beard. Looked a bit odd apparently, but nobody fainted.
I went into the Ladies' by mistake last year in an up-market area, thinking it was unisex - the two women there glanced at me, paused, and I think quite visibly thought "Ah, this must be one of those trans people we read about, we must be tolerant", smiled vaguely and looked away.
In Moscow a few years ago, I remember a woman cleaner coming in and nonchalantly cleaned the floor around another bloke and me using the facilities. I was a bit startled at the time, but on reflection, why do we really get worked about privacy in something which we all do several times a day?
It's when you get self-identifying woman with a penis in swimming pool changing rooms and women's refuges that real problems can arise (and have arisen). In Canada refuges are legally obliged to accept a woman-with-a-penis, which causes huge distress to the women already there.
It's the "my rights trump your rights" from one historically disadvantaged group to another that really rankles.
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
(Quick check: did I get those numbers right?)
Arse. I might have got those numbers wrong. I'm on the tablet and everything is securitied to buggery and back. If any kind soul can confirm those numbers or point out the error, I would be grateful.
I think he only needs to put £79 down to match the £100 from the backer. it's an odds on bet for the backer. £100 of his money to win £179 if he's right. the £79 comes from the layer.
The members at Hampstead Ladies Pond voted by quite a big majority to allow transgenders to frequent the facility on Hampstead Heath. It hasn't been an issue, probably because transgender users are rare. A friend did see one recenlty, and he/she did have a beard. Looked a bit odd apparently, but nobody fainted.
I went into the Ladies' by mistake last year in an up-market area, thinking it was unisex - the two women there glanced at me, paused, and I think quite visibly thought "Ah, this must be one of those trans people we read about, we must be tolerant", smiled vaguely and looked away.
In Moscow a few years ago, I remember a woman cleaner coming in and nonchalantly cleaned the floor around another bloke and me using the facilities. I was a bit startled at the time, but on reflection, why do we really get worked about privacy in something which we all do several times a day?
Where we draw the line on these things is genuinely weird and cultural and personal.
For example, I still get embarrassed when I see someone breast-feeding and although I know it is perfectly natural and it doesn't in any way offend me I can feel the blush go straight through me. And then I feel embarrassed for being embarrassed.....
wonder how many other Labour MPs will do something like this.
It's a nice touch, and even I find it refreshingly positive, but if a Conservative voter was nodding along to all that he would never have been a Conservative voter in the first place.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
Christmas trees in November?! Boris has a word for that....
I put up my mini led tree today.
*Shakes head in sad 'what-is-the-world-coming-to' way.*
It's my birthday on Monday, decs go up the weekend nearest it!
In that case I'll let you off! In the office at work this week every vertical surface has been covered in tinsel and every horizontal surface has a Xmas (sic) tree on it. And the Advent calendars have already been raided of anything containing chocolate and/or alcohol. I'm sure Dante has a place for the people who do that.
Madness! I have a traditional advent calendar. Pictures only,
Advent calendars start on 1st December!
Apparently not in my office.
They have 24 windows, for the 24 days running up to Christmas!
Or 24 hours if my colleagues are anything to go by.
What is the “unitary taxation of multinationals” in the Labour manifesto? I understand it involves taxation based on total global profits rather than just operations in the U.K. How can this possibly be legal? Imagine if every country introduced such a tax? It would give ‘double taxation’ a new meaning? Or is the intention to base the tax on profits earned in the U.K, not tax on bits of the business HQd in the U.K.? However they do that. Someone explain?
A price of 1.79 is in odds-on (79p win for each £1 staked), or roughly 4-5 in old odds. With decimal odds you subtract 1 from the price to work out the actual odds; so a price of 3.5 would in reality be 2.5 or 5-2.
As a layer (acting as a bookmaker in effect) my liabilities are reversed so for every 79p my opposite number wagers I stand to win £1 (minus commission).
Laying a 'thing'; a horse, a football team, a specific event etc can also be viewed as backing all the other possible outcomes to win.
THREAD: Our latest @IpsosMORI Political Monitor is out this week. Some headline observations from me.
First, voting intention, Lib Dem squeeze continues but Cons comfortably in the 40s at the moment which means preventing a Con majority looks tough for Labour *at the moment*. https://t.co/sGgdLZjj67
THREAD: Our latest @IpsosMORI Political Monitor is out this week. Some headline observations from me.
First, voting intention, Lib Dem squeeze continues but Cons comfortably in the 40s at the moment which means preventing a Con majority looks tough for Labour *at the moment*. https://t.co/sGgdLZjj67
I've just been poking around in the remote regions of the LibDem manifesto to see what's there (someone has to...). I was expecting my hackles to be raised, which to be fair they were in the obvious cases such as votes for children, mandatory gender-neutral school uniforms, and similar nonsense, but overall it looks pretty sensible. What I liked about it most is that it doesn't promise instant magical solutions to difficult problems, but instead in some of the difficult areas it proposes measures which seem to have some hope of actually improving things - for example on reducing reoffending, and measures to reduce violent crime.
The LD manifesto is very good indeed, and there are lots of us here who would much rather vote for a libertarian conservative party than an authoritarian one. But sadly they’ve polluted their brand by their lack of respect for democracy in the referendum of 2016. We voted to leave the EU and that should be allowed to happen.
I will see whether I get any reply and if the lovely Tulip drops by I can always ask her, of course......
I claim a little more than that! I fused what I know is the symbolic principle being elevated - a women's body belongs to her - with a 'thinking cap' assumption that in practice late stage terminations will not be purely down to the pregnant woman.
But that still leaves the question of whether abortion will be available on demand (a) for any reason at all e.g. I don't want to have a girl; and (b) at all stages of the pregnancy eg at 8 months 3 weeks.
The first of those sounds like the hard part they haven't thought through....the second surely not.
I have to confess that I find something very troubling about getting rid of a baby simply because it is a girl. It reinforces misogynistic views about women, particularly in some communities, a belief that women are not the equal of men, are not worth anything or not as much. How can a feminist - or, frankly, any self-respecting woman - not be troubled by this?
or any man tbh.
A few years ago I went to a 'Cafe Scientifique' lecture in Bangkok. The speaker, a local, was a fairly newly appointed consultant gynaecologist spoke about genetics and how he was being asked to develop his practice. He was very concerned at the requests he was getting for 'designer babies'. The audience was a mix of Europeans, Americans and Thais. Everyone seemed very concerned, but the consensus seemed to be that while we didn't like what could be done, it was going to happen.
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
Very interesting and thank you for explaining
Don't thank me just yet, @Big_G_NorthWales : I'm trying frantically to see if I got those numbers right! Oh, f*****g security filters!
You have been great outlining the process. Please do not stress about your figures
Added to my Con 340+ lay a little earlier when there were backers down at 1.79.
Can you help me and decipher that to someone like me who does not bet
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
(Quick check: did I get those numbers right?)
Arse. I might have got those numbers wrong. I'm on the tablet and everything is securitied to buggery and back. If any kind soul can confirm those numbers or point out the error, I would be grateful.
I think he only needs to put £79 down to match the £100 from the backer. it's an odds on bet for the backer. £100 of his money to win £179 if he's right. the £79 comes from the layer.
You might be right. I should know this shit by now. Stupid bloody decimal odds. Why can't they use fractional odds like God intended? Aaargh, stupid viewcode!
The members at Hampstead Ladies Pond voted by quite a big majority to allow transgenders to frequent the facility on Hampstead Heath. It hasn't been an issue, probably because transgender users are rare. A friend did see one recenlty, and he/she did have a beard. Looked a bit odd apparently, but nobody fainted.
I went into the Ladies' by mistake last year in an up-market area, thinking it was unisex - the two women there glanced at me, paused, and I think quite visibly thought "Ah, this must be one of those trans people we read about, we must be tolerant", smiled vaguely and looked away.
In Moscow a few years ago, I remember a woman cleaner coming in and nonchalantly cleaned the floor around another bloke and me using the facilities. I was a bit startled at the time, but on reflection, why do we really get worked about privacy in something which we all do several times a day?
Comments
(Also in unitary authorities, you potentially need several from the same council at different counts)
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1197905248599326721?s=20
I could see it being close on present form, and Redcar likes to swing wildly, so I've had a taste.
Could be the Bath GE2015 of GE2019.
Sign of the times i'm afraid.
But, yes, let's see.
If either your (a) or (b) are in substance true I will do more than eat my sock. I will resign from the party. I might even vote Lib Dem in future.
Working hard and earning a very good salary doesn't make you rich. Most people who do so do it to cover living expenses, mortgages, fees and costs.
I understand the former - the latter is sadly more hope than reality (with the lack of communication and transport links getting industry there is going to be hard work) but it does mean the Tory candidate will being looked upon favourably at the moment.
https://order-order.com/2019/11/22/police-called-labour-candidates-abusive-fracas-voter/
Still, Mrs. Candidate, you're proposing to put those nutters in power and that rather negates any positive message you might have. But you have at least put a very good little vid together.
I suspect Tory > Labour switchers in this election will be as close to zero as to be practically zero.
You didn't think I was being sarcastic, did you?
At the moment, for what it's worth, I've backed a high turnout, Scottish Conservatives to do pretty well (hold station), and the Conservatives to get less rather than more on the under/over market. (About 339).
Eat a pickled onion each time a Brexit deposit gets saved.....
Natalie Fleet-o'-foot......
"We believe that everyone has a right to make independent decisions over their reproductive health without interference by the state, and that access to reproductive healthcare is a human right. We will:
- Decriminalise abortion across the UK while retaining the existing 24-week limit and legislate for access to abortion facilities within Northern Ireland.
- Enforce safe zones around abortion clinics, make intimidation or harassment of abortion service users and staff outside clinics, or on common transport routes to these services, illegal.
- Fund abortion clinics to provide their services free of charge to service users regardless of nationality or residency. "
I don't think that helps you in case (i)
The few days after the release of the manifesto this weekend, and how it lands in the polling, will be crucial. If it doesn't move anything then from 2 weeks out (Thursday 28th November) onwards there are few opportunities left for game-changer - other than the big debate on 6th December.
It will really be a question of GOTV operations. But there could still be an 'error' of 20-30 seats either way, which is why I'm so wary of predicting exact seat numbers.
So, the most accurate simile would have been for that Tory voter to run after her down the street, peck her on the cheek, and then go home & keep his poster up.
(1) The donkey vote, Labour waverers could firm up massively in the last few days - "my granddad would turn in his grave" etc.
(2) The Remain/LD floaters who put five clothes-pegs on their noses, and possibly use surgical staples too, and switch to Corbyn at the last minute tactically
Either or both of those could mean Boris just falls short, which means another gridlocked Parliament and two referendums next year.
Lovely.
Maybe there is hope.
If I were Boris I'd pull another rabbit out the hat on it on Sunday to pre-empt it.
Against that, the final vote transfer of eliminated independent favoured the CON candidate significantly.
If Labour are really proposing 39-week abortion, it's not just the god-botherers who will be appalled.
He is using an exchange bookie like Betfair. Exchange bookies bring together a backer and a layer. The backer bets that something will happen, the layer bets that it will not happen, both people give their money to the exchange bookie to look after, and the booki gives all the money (minus a percentage) to whichever one is right.
@SunnyJim is laying the Con 340+ bet: i.e. he is betting that Con will not get more than 339 seats. He was waiting for a backer to arrive so he could place the bet. He and the backer have now given money to the exchange bookie and after the election he or the backer will get the money.
The price was 1.79: if the backer put in £100, then @SunnyJim would put in £179. The bookie holds the 279 until after the election, then it will give that money to whoever is correct
If this was a high-street bookmaker then the bookie acts as the layer.
When they go to a selection of houses in the street, this is the already identified support, and they are just confirming that those voters are still on board, and making sure they are going to vote - perhaps thrusting a couple of postal vote application forms into the voter's hands, or even offering a lift to the polling station.
A blanket leaflet drop, on the other hand, is an attempt to win new support. I believe that bar charts are one tool that is occasionally used in such leaflets to persuade/hoodwink* the voters.
*Delete as appropriate.
That's bad, IMO, but I would not want to impose my views on this via the criminal law.
I am on the "Women's Right To Choose" side of this argument.
Boris Johnson: 41% (-3)
Jeremy Corbyn: 22% (-)
via @YouGov, 19 Nov
Chgs. w/ 12 Nov
https://t.co/x9T6X5m3mY https://t.co/8bkZFB5Bav
In Moscow a few years ago, I remember a woman cleaner coming in and nonchalantly cleaned the floor around another bloke and me using the facilities. I was a bit startled at the time, but on reflection, why do we really get worked about privacy in something which we all do several times a day?
It's the "my rights trump your rights" from one historically disadvantaged group to another that really rankles.
For example, I still get embarrassed when I see someone breast-feeding and although I know it is perfectly natural and it doesn't in any way offend me I can feel the blush go straight through me. And then I feel embarrassed for being embarrassed.....
A price of 1.79 is in odds-on (79p win for each £1 staked), or roughly 4-5 in old odds. With decimal odds you subtract 1 from the price to work out the actual odds; so a price of 3.5 would in reality be 2.5 or 5-2.
As a layer (acting as a bookmaker in effect) my liabilities are reversed so for every 79p my opposite number wagers I stand to win £1 (minus commission).
Laying a 'thing'; a horse, a football team, a specific event etc can also be viewed as backing all the other possible outcomes to win.
Something for everyone there.
First, voting intention, Lib Dem squeeze continues but Cons comfortably in the 40s at the moment which means preventing a Con majority looks tough for Labour *at the moment*. https://t.co/sGgdLZjj67
I tried to embed the picture, sorry.
The audience was a mix of Europeans, Americans and Thais. Everyone seemed very concerned, but the consensus seemed to be that while we didn't like what could be done, it was going to happen.