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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    timmo said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Interesting that Sky News have just had a segment on the Muslim vote . I brought this up a few days ago , it’s crucial in some key marginals in the Midlands and parts of the north .

    Muslims also oppose abortion
    But their loyalty to Labour is greater
    Even if it only shifts a few away from Labour that is bad news for them in northern and Midlands marginal seats.

    Islam opposes abortion except in the case of saving the life of the mother, certainly late term abortions as Labour wants now
  • IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    A few possible popcorn moments there but will anyone miss Chuka?
    Imagine if all of those came to pass. Nobody try a drinking game. The hangover would last for days.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Sandpit said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Sandpit said:

    Labour need to urgently clarify their abortion policy if they wish anyone remotely religious (or with a soul) to vote for them.
    https://righttolife.org.uk/news/labour-pledge-to-introduce-abortion-for-any-reason-up-to-birth/
    These things are traditionally matters of conscience for MPs, and public opinion is that late abortions should be more restricted - rather than on-demand at 39 weeks.

    ummm the LibDem policy is also to decriminalise abortion (haven't checked other parties yet). Most Conservative MPs chose not to vote against decriminalising abortion in Northern Ireland. So which party should anyone "with a soul vote" for these days?
    So ther eis
    Surely, there is a difference between the decriminalising abortion in NI - and removing the time limit of 23 weeks and 6 days of pregnancy, in line with the Abortion Act 1967?
    I don't think so. The Abortion Act 1967 never applied to Northern Ireland. Labour policy would bring England and Wales into line with the situation in Northern Ireland since October this year.
    So there is now literally an abortion free-for-all in Northern Ireland, with no time limit? Any woman can turn up in Belfast and ask for a termination at eight and a half months? Just because, say, she doesn't like the sex of her baby?
    But dont even think about hurting those foxes!
    Killing foxes - evil beyond recognition.

    Killing human babies in the womb - yeah, that’s okay, right up to 40 weeks.
    So their policy is probably much the same as Canada's has been for decades

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abortion_in_Canada
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 694

    LibDems picked up 2/3 of the UKIP racist and fruit-cake vote!
    I know this area and there was an extremely energetic and personable LibDem candidate which could explain the swing. Regarding the UKIP comment, the previous UKIP candidate, who was defeated by the Conservative at the previous election, was the sister of Diane James, who was head of UKIP for about 10 days and is generally regarded as one of the saner leaders (I know that is comparative) She was a very hardworking councillor and on the ball (I say that as someone who can't stand UKIP). The previous Conservative candidate defected to the Brexit Party and was chose as Parliamentary candidate for Sunderland Central - hence the by-election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    We are approaching the point at which the LibDems’ best hope is that Labour does so badly that the ensuing fallout sets them up as opposition waiting for the election after next.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...
  • IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    That would make an excellent 'Firewall' market, with the addition of a couple more between Chuka. and Laura Pidcock.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Chesterfield! Lol
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Chesterfield! Lol

    ?
  • JumperJumper Posts: 3
    edited November 2019
    Jumper said:

    The Labour Party would decriminalise abortion in Britain, making it legal to have an abortion for any reason up to the birth of a child, a party spokeswoman has confirmed.

    The party’s manifesto, launched today ahead of the December 12 general election, says: “We will uphold women’s reproductive rights and decriminalise abortions.”

    A Labour spokeswoman confirmed to the Catholic Herald that this would mean the repeal of the relevant sections of the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act, which currently bans abortion.


    https://catholicherald.co.uk/news/2019/11/21/labour-would-totally-decriminalise-abortion-party-spokeswoman-confirms/

    If Labour want to make abortion legal for any reason the woman chooses, right up until she is about to give birth, how strange they didn't put it in their manifesto. How strange too that they seem unaware that the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act was amended by David Steel's Abortion Act 1967. What's more likely is that they want to end the Northern Ireland abortion ban and there was a proofreading error. Have CCHQ been on the phone to the Catholic Herald?
    Actually I am out of date and abortion law has been liberalised in NI. So basically Labour want to bring E&W in line with NI. (As for Scotland?)
  • Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...

    The vicars are lefties and the congregations vote Tory.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...

    Anglican vote was 58% Tory 28% Labour
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    Keith & Cullen (Moray) first preferences:

    CON: 41.5% (+7.1)
    SNP: 38.1% (-0.7)
    IND: 12.7% (+3.3)
    LDEM: 7.7% (+7.7)

    Conservative HOLD.

    Positive night for team blue last night, 2 gains and 2 holds

    Can someone explain these numbers to me? If Con is plus 7.1 there were on 34.4. If SNP were -0.7, there were on 37.4. That would indicate a Con GAIN not HOLD.

    What am I getting wrong here?
  • IanB2 said:

    We are approaching the point at which the LibDems’ best hope is that Labour does so badly that the ensuing fallout sets them up as opposition waiting for the election after next.

    I imagine much will depend on who both parties choose as their next leader [I can't see Swinson lasting to the next election even if she clings on to her own seat].

    One thing we haven't seem to discussed much is who could be Labour leader based on two criteria:
    1: Who survives - ie Pidcock is touted but could lose her seat.
    2: The percentage of MPs/MEPs threshold requirement for nominations.

    There was talk a couple of years ago that if Corbyn left early then a Corbynista might fail to be nominated. But what are the rules now regarding the percentages and would the Corbynista NEC change them?

    Have the Corbynistas managed to get enough MPs into safe seats to secure one of their own the leadership?
  • Labour are promising to "Provide sufficient funding for schools to deliver mandatory LGBT+ inclusive relationships and sex education". I'm all for this, but has anyone told Labour's muslim supporters?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Chesterfield! Lol

    I had a smile at that one. I remember it was Tony Benn's old seat.

    Actually if you look back at the results his maj was only 6,000 at one point against a very strong liberal challenge.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kinabalu said:

    Thanks. So George was right as he usually is.

    Don't know about George but something I have noticed is that many relatively affluent people tend to be reluctant to admit - or even to allow themselves to discover - that they are much better off than the average joe. The QT exchange was quite useful in demonstrating this common little foible. It has great political significance, I think, since it can and does distort the public perception of taxation and any proposed reforms in that area.
    Completely agree. A feature of living in a bubble, keeping up with the Joneses
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    TimT said:

    Keith & Cullen (Moray) first preferences:

    CON: 41.5% (+7.1)
    SNP: 38.1% (-0.7)
    IND: 12.7% (+3.3)
    LDEM: 7.7% (+7.7)

    Conservative HOLD.

    Positive night for team blue last night, 2 gains and 2 holds

    Can someone explain these numbers to me? If Con is plus 7.1 there were on 34.4. If SNP were -0.7, there were on 37.4. That would indicate a Con GAIN not HOLD.

    What am I getting wrong here?
    Not understanding how STV elections work
  • Their explanation - "Taking companies into public ownership is fiscally neutral by international accounting standards when bonds are exchanged for shares (as in previous nationalisations)"

    with a footnote - "Depending on timing there may be some further capital expenditure on nationalisations but we would hope HM Treasury’s Public Ownership Unit will have completed their acquisition before then and have not included a fiscal multiplier effect from them"

    In other words they'd finance the extra few hundred billion all by an increase in borrowing, and hope the financial markets didn't notice that the borrowing to GDP ratio had gone through the roof. That seems rather, shall we say, optimistic.
    It also demonstrates the mendaciousness of Labour claiming that the spending is somehow no greater than "Scandinavia" or Germany - here in Denmark govt spending is about 51% of GDP but debt/GDP is about 40%, interest rates are -0.5% and even the red government is running a surplus on current spending. I've never seen a manifesto as bonkers as Labour's and I remember 1983 -

    I even voted for Kinnock in 87 but this is not a serious programme for government it's simply a set of slogans so they can slip into their comfort zone of opposition politics and avoid the hard job of actually being responsible for the economy.
  • KeithJennerKeithJenner Posts: 99
    edited November 2019
    TimT said:

    Keith & Cullen (Moray) first preferences:

    CON: 41.5% (+7.1)
    SNP: 38.1% (-0.7)
    IND: 12.7% (+3.3)
    LDEM: 7.7% (+7.7)

    Conservative HOLD.

    Positive night for team blue last night, 2 gains and 2 holds

    Can someone explain these numbers to me? If Con is plus 7.1 there were on 34.4. If SNP were -0.7, there were on 37.4. That would indicate a Con GAIN not HOLD.

    What am I getting wrong here?
    Those are just first preferences. It is probably also a multi member seat, which can have an effect on these things.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Labour are promising to "Provide sufficient funding for schools to deliver mandatory LGBT+ inclusive relationships and sex education". I'm all for this, but has anyone told Labour's muslim supporters?

    You only have to book an Uber in London to find out where some members of that community stands on this issue. I have received at least one lengthy lecture on my way home....
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Interesting that Sky News have just had a segment on the Muslim vote . I brought this up a few days ago , it’s crucial in some key marginals in the Midlands and parts of the north .

    Muslims also oppose abortion
    But their loyalty to Labour is greater
    Even if it only shifts a few away from Labour that is bad news for them in northern and Midlands marginal seats.

    Islam opposes abortion except in the case of saving the life of the mother, certainly late term abortions as Labour wants now
    Rubbish, unless "Islam" in this case happens to be the name of friend of yours with those views.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Interesting that Sky News have just had a segment on the Muslim vote . I brought this up a few days ago , it’s crucial in some key marginals in the Midlands and parts of the north .

    Muslims also oppose abortion
    But their loyalty to Labour is greater
    Even if it only shifts a few away from Labour that is bad news for them in northern and Midlands marginal seats.

    Islam opposes abortion except in the case of saving the life of the mother, certainly late term abortions as Labour wants now
    Boris Johnson isn’t going to help with the Muslim community . The research showed Muslims voted 64% for Labour, 25% for the Tories .

    That was done after the 2015 election . The Muslim vote makes up at least 10% in 83 constituencies.
  • HYUFD said:

    Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...

    Anglican vote was 58% Tory 28% Labour
    That may just be down to the age profile of the average CofE congregation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    I would like to see the back of Mogg, I must admit.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,842
    edited November 2019
    Well Leigh, Redcar and Hemsworth would be remarkable. But if Bolton NE, Alyn and Deeside, Warwick and Leamington, Vale of Clywd are close - well, these are the sorts of seats Con need to be gaining just to offset losses to SNP and LD.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Did that chap really saying earning 80k didn’t put him in the top 50%?

    That’s like saying you’re working class despite being privately educated and growing up in a family of doctors.

    Er, top 5%.....
    He said it didn't even put him in the top 50%.

    He really was that stupid.
  • nico67 said:

    The Labour abortion policy is really on the law because currently abortion is illegal but has exceptions . Any policy change would then have to be debated and voted on in the Commons where limits would be put.

    The Labour proposal is just making abortion legal. I think Labour need to clarify what exactly the term limits they would think acceptable .

    I would assume they are proposing no changes to term limits. It is just a question of decriminalising the procedure. In Northern Ireland the term limit is 28 weeks but the process has been decriminalised and that is what Labour is proposing for the rest of the UK, not to change the term limits.
    I wonder what kind of hysterical and inaccurate stories about Labour we can expect tomorrow, spread with gay abandon by PM Tory shills?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...

    Anglican vote was 58% Tory 28% Labour
    More hypocrisy , just as we see in the USA . If these so called Christians really cared about the poor they wouldn’t be voting Tory.
  • Just had a campaign event request for the SE.

    Looks like strong defences being mounted in Guildford, Hastings and Rye, Crawley and Milton Keynes North and South. They have many more events than anywhere else.

    Strong offence in Reading East.

    Make of that what you will.
  • Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20
  • kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Sandpit said:

    Labour need to urgently clarify their abortion policy if they wish anyone remotely religious (or with a soul) to vote for them.
    https://righttolife.org.uk/news/labour-pledge-to-introduce-abortion-for-any-reason-up-to-birth/
    These things are traditionally matters of conscience for MPs, and public opinion is that late abortions should be more restricted - rather than on-demand at 39 weeks.

    ummm the LibDem policy is also to decriminalise abortion (haven't checked other parties yet). Most Conservative MPs chose not to vote against decriminalising abortion in Northern Ireland. So which party should anyone "with a soul vote" for these days?
    So ther eis
    Surely, there is a difference between the decriminalising abortion in NI - and removing the time limit of 23 weeks and 6 days of pregnancy, in line with the Abortion Act 1967?
    I don't think so. The Abortion Act 1967 never applied to Northern Ireland. Labour policy would bring England and Wales into line with the situation in Northern Ireland since October this year.
    So there is now literally an abortion free-for-all in Northern Ireland, with no time limit? Any woman can turn up in Belfast and ask for a termination at eight and a half months? Just because, say, she doesn't like the sex of her baby?
    I don't know, you tell me - can they? do they? and who do they ask? and what answer do they get?

    These women getting abortions during labour or whatever only exist in your weird imagination.
    I am trying to ascertain what the legal situation is in NI. It may be that there are no late-term abortions happening. Hell, they've only just started happening at all. But - is there now no legal upper time limit within part of the UK? I think it a question to which we should have an answer. And if so, politicians should answer whether that should remain.

    Personally, I see no reason why abortion law shouldn't be standardised across the whole of the UK.
    Abortion is now legal in NI up to 28 weeks. Beyond that the Criminal Justice (Northern Ireland) Act 1945 kicks in and any abortion would be an offence.
  • nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...

    Anglican vote was 58% Tory 28% Labour
    More hypocrisy , just as we see in the USA . If these so called Christians really cared about the poor they wouldn’t be voting Tory.
    I am not voting Tory this time, but none the less your post is arrogant sanctimonious bullshit. Anyone who cares for the poor would not want our country modelled on Venezuela
  • On Mr 80K,

    The issue is surely less about whether or not he’s in the top 5% of earners (he is) but the perception.

    The fact is that if you’re on 80k yes you are in the top 5% but you inhabit that top 5% with a lot of people much wealthier than you, obscenely so in some cases. The term “top 5% of earners” does conjure up images of oligarchs and fat cats, but there will be some everyday working families in there too.

    FWIW I think it’s all a little bit of a storm in a teacup. As with any tax policy if you’re going to be worse off because of the change you’re going to be angry about it.

    He may be in the top 5% of earners, but the 87k or whatever he earns isn't part of the top 5% of *earnings*. And it's a very long way short of being part of the top 5% of *wealth*.

    This is why using 'income' as the primary barometer for taxation and wealth redistribution is fundamentally flawed. Even for those who believe in such things.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,543
    HMRC has published income tax statistics for each parliamentary constituency.

    https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/791184/NS_Table_3_15_1617.xlsx

    The data come from the 2016/17 tax year so a bit out of date.

    For Caithness Sunderland and Easter Ross the medium income is £23,600

    The IFS has also published research into the top 1% of income tax payers.

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/uploads/BN253-Characteristics-and-Incomes-Of-The-Top-1%.pdf
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    timmo said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    Interesting that Sky News have just had a segment on the Muslim vote . I brought this up a few days ago , it’s crucial in some key marginals in the Midlands and parts of the north .

    Muslims also oppose abortion
    But their loyalty to Labour is greater
    Do Muslims (in general; I assume there is a range of views) actually oppose abortion being legalised, or are they fine with society allowing it as long as it doesn't impact them?
  • Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    That has to be criminal surely?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    kinabalu said:
    Is that using their estimates for the costs, or actual estimates?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Endillion said:

    nico67 said:

    Interesting that Sky News have just had a segment on the Muslim vote . I brought this up a few days ago , it’s crucial in some key marginals in the Midlands and parts of the north .

    Doesn't it vote Labour, en masse and almost unquestioningly?
    Johnson has certainly done his best to put them off voting Tory.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    That has to be criminal surely?
    Another activist raised the option of setting off fire alarms in office buildings. He said: "Could setting off fire alarms in certain buildings perhaps be made part of this action? Enter building, eg. a bank or govt office and set off the fire alarm.

    "Employees file out and they get to hear climate emergency speeches from XR people with megaphones."


    I'm sure they will be very receptive.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    TimT said:

    Keith & Cullen (Moray) first preferences:

    CON: 41.5% (+7.1)
    SNP: 38.1% (-0.7)
    IND: 12.7% (+3.3)
    LDEM: 7.7% (+7.7)

    Conservative HOLD.

    Positive night for team blue last night, 2 gains and 2 holds

    Can someone explain these numbers to me? If Con is plus 7.1 there were on 34.4. If SNP were -0.7, there were on 37.4. That would indicate a Con GAIN not HOLD.

    What am I getting wrong here?
    Those are just first preferences. It is probably also a multi member seat, which can have an effect on these things.
    Thanks, Keith
  • IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    And there's only 1 or 2 I would be remotely bothered about!
  • I have the Tories winning Bolton NE comfortably and Leigh narrowly, the rest are Labour holds although some are pretty close.
  • Just had a campaign event request for the SE.

    Looks like strong defences being mounted in Guildford, Hastings and Rye, Crawley and Milton Keynes North and South. They have many more events than anywhere else.

    Strong offence in Reading East.

    Make of that what you will.

    Seems fairly sensible.

    Guildford could be interesting with Anne Milton standing as an Independent. I wouldn't like to guess how it will go, but the fact that it is on that list suggests it may be close.
  • RobD said:

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    That has to be criminal surely?
    Another activist raised the option of setting off fire alarms in office buildings. He said: "Could setting off fire alarms in certain buildings perhaps be made part of this action? Enter building, eg. a bank or govt office and set off the fire alarm.

    "Employees file out and they get to hear climate emergency speeches from XR people with megaphones."


    I'm sure they will be very receptive.
    This has the potential to make that bloke getting thumped at Canning Town station look like a very warm welcome.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...

    Anglican vote was 58% Tory 28% Labour
    More hypocrisy , just as we see in the USA . If these so called Christians really cared about the poor they wouldn’t be voting Tory.
    Isn’t it possible to live in a world where we all accept that pretty much all politicians care about the poor, but they just have different prescriptions for helping them out. We can disagree over policy without doubting motives. For example, I don’t doubt Labour wants to help the poor, I just doubt its policies will do so in the long run.
  • RobD said:

    kinabalu said:
    Is that using their estimates for the costs, or actual estimates?
    I think it assumes that GDP won't go down, and doesn't include very definitely fiscally neutral nationalisations or the borrowing that they require.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    I would like to see the back of Mogg, I must admit.
    Could be a reverse incumbency effect there? Cf. Lembit Opik in 2010.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    RobD said:

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    That has to be criminal surely?
    Another activist raised the option of setting off fire alarms in office buildings. He said: "Could setting off fire alarms in certain buildings perhaps be made part of this action? Enter building, eg. a bank or govt office and set off the fire alarm.

    "Employees file out and they get to hear climate emergency speeches from XR people with megaphones."


    I'm sure they will be very receptive.
    Well global warming or not, they’re won’t be a lot of sunshine where some of those megaphones might end up.

    Have they forgotten the East End tube incident already?
  • RobD said:

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    That has to be criminal surely?
    Another activist raised the option of setting off fire alarms in office buildings. He said: "Could setting off fire alarms in certain buildings perhaps be made part of this action? Enter building, eg. a bank or govt office and set off the fire alarm.

    "Employees file out and they get to hear climate emergency speeches from XR people with megaphones."


    I'm sure they will be very receptive.
    I think many of them would be more likely to give XR some pointers themselves.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited November 2019

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    I would like to see the back of Mogg, I must admit.
    Could be a reverse incumbency effect there? Cf. Lembit Opik in 2010.
    JRM is one of those MPs who is better off the more of his constituents don’t know who is representing them.

    You have to feel for voters who troop down the polling station to vote for Cameron or May and end up with a tit like him as their MP.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    edited November 2019

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    kamski said:

    Sandpit said:

    Labour need to urgently clarify their abortion policy if they wish anyone remotely religious (or with a soul) to vote for them.
    https://righttolife.org.uk/news/labour-pledge-to-introduce-abortion-for-any-reason-up-to-birth/
    These things are traditionally matters of conscience for MPs, and public opinion is that late abortions should be more restricted - rather than on-demand at 39 weeks.

    ummm the LibDem policy is also to decriminalise abortion (haven't checked other parties yet). Most Conservative MPs chose not to vote against decriminalising abortion in Northern Ireland. So which party should anyone "with a soul vote" for these days?
    So ther eis
    Surely, there is a difference between the decriminalising abortion in NI - and removing the time limit of 23 weeks and 6 days of pregnancy, in line with the Abortion Act 1967?
    I don't think so. The Abortion Act 1967 never applied to Northern Ireland. Labour policy would bring England and Wales into line with the situation in Northern Ireland since October this year.
    So there is now literally an abortion free-for-all in Northern Ireland, with no time limit? Any woman can turn up in Belfast and ask for a termination at eight and a half months? Just because, say, she doesn't like the sex of her baby?
    I don't know, you tell me - can they? do they? and who do they ask? and what answer do they get?

    These women getting abortions during labour or whatever only exist in your weird imagination.
    I am trying to ascertain what the legal situation is in NI. It may be that there are no late-term abortions happening. Hell, they've only just started happening at all. But - is there now no legal upper time limit within part of the UK? I think it a question to which we should have an answer. And if so, politicians should answer whether that should remain.

    Personally, I see no reason why abortion law shouldn't be standardised across the whole of the UK.
    Abortion is now legal in NI up to 28 weeks. Beyond that the Criminal Justice (Northern Ireland) Act 1945 kicks in and any abortion would be an offence.
    Thanks. That makes more sense.

    Still have no idea what Labour is suggesting.
  • RobD said:

    kinabalu said:
    Is that using their estimates for the costs, or actual estimates?
    It's using Labour's estimates, including ignoring the hundreds of billions of extra capital/nationalisation expenditure. In other words, it's complete bollocks.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,614
    Cookie said:

    Well Leigh, Redcar and Hemsworth would be remarkable. But if Bolton NE, Alyn and Deeside, Warwick and Leamington, Vale of Clywd are close - well, these are the sorts of seats Con need to be gaining just to offset losses to SNP and LD.

    Chesterfield is a surprise. Is it the LibDems mounting another attack on it? Can't be Tories, can it?
  • Just had a campaign event request for the SE.

    Looks like strong defences being mounted in Guildford, Hastings and Rye, Crawley and Milton Keynes North and South. They have many more events than anywhere else.

    Strong offence in Reading East.

    Make of that what you will.

    I think the Tories should hold all those seats, although my model suggests MKN could be close. Reading East looks like an easy Labour hold on my model, but the Reading West poll had the Tories doing much better there than in my model, so perhaps Labour is under performing in the town?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    kamski said:

    Endillion said:

    This has to be the darkest GE campaign I've ever witnessed in this country - disseminating the idea that one of the major political parties intends to legalize infanticide. Sadly, people will have looked to the US and concluded that this stuff works so let's emulate.

    Given the Roman Catholic’s shameful history towards the Jews I’d have thought the Catholic Herald would be on Team Corbyn.
    Well that is a first. Never seen you write a bigoted post before. I suppose some people think it is NOT ok tbe "Islamophobic" or anti-Semitic, but it IS to kick the world's 1.2Billion Roman Catholics
    I am assuming he missed out the word "church's".

    You do not want to be in the position of trying to defend the Vatican's history towards Jews.
    I assume it was an attempt at humour.
    Still, it's a bit weird to go for the Catholic Church's historical anti-semitism (which has been apologised for), when they are currently proudly and officially homophobic and misogynistic. Also not sure if the Catholic Herald can be blamed for the policies of the Catholic Church.
    Don’t forget their role as the world’s largest paedophile exchange network.
    Nothing like categorising everyone who belongs to a group as being the same as the worst example in that group, eh! Such a statement does you no credit at all. It is no better than someone describing Islam as the world’s largest terrorist organisation, for instance.

    Anyway, the precise wording in the Labour manifesto, having looked it up, on abortion is this: “ We will uphold women’s reproductive rights and decriminalise abortions. .

    That can be read as meaning that there should be no time limits within which an abortion can happen ie you could get an abortion the day before your due date.

    If that is what is intended it is to me quite horrible. An abortion at a very late stage of pregnancy is an induced labour of a viable child.

    Perhaps we will get clarification of what this means.
  • Thanks. That makes more sense.

    Still have no idea what Labour is suggesting.

    I suspect that you are making the mistake of expecting them to know what they are suggesting.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    That has to be criminal surely?
    Another activist raised the option of setting off fire alarms in office buildings. He said: "Could setting off fire alarms in certain buildings perhaps be made part of this action? Enter building, eg. a bank or govt office and set off the fire alarm.

    "Employees file out and they get to hear climate emergency speeches from XR people with megaphones."


    I'm sure they will be very receptive.
    Well global warming or not, they’re won’t be a lot of sunshine where some of those megaphones might end up.

    Have they forgotten the East End tube incident already?
    I mean, I read it as taking alarms with them and setting them off in buildings, not setting off the alarms of buildings.

    But also, these are apparently telegram messages, something that is nigh impossible to prove who they come from / go to. This could easily be some people making stuff up and trying to make XR look bad in the wake of Hallam being a complete arsehole.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    Labour are promising to "Provide sufficient funding for schools to deliver mandatory LGBT+ inclusive relationships and sex education". I'm all for this, but has anyone told Labour's muslim supporters?

    Obviously apart from those schools
  • nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting poll numbers on catholic voter split.

    Wonder what it is for Anglicans. I remember my old history teacher calling the CofE the 'tory party at prayer'

    Shows how old I am...

    Anglican vote was 58% Tory 28% Labour
    More hypocrisy , just as we see in the USA . If these so called Christians really cared about the poor they wouldn’t be voting Tory.
    Isn’t it possible to live in a world where we all accept that pretty much all politicians care about the poor, but they just have different prescriptions for helping them out. We can disagree over policy without doubting motives. For example, I don’t doubt Labour wants to help the poor, I just doubt its policies will do so in the long run.

    Wanting to help the poor and believing that the best way to help the poor is through the iron hand of Big State rather than personal charity is a *massive* ideological leap though.

    The 'Jesus was a Socialist' brigade generally don't understand this, despite a complete lack of any scripture pointing to Our Lord favouring big earthly government, and a reasonable amount suggesting that he was, in fact,skeptical towards, and disruptive of it...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213

    Cookie said:

    Well Leigh, Redcar and Hemsworth would be remarkable. But if Bolton NE, Alyn and Deeside, Warwick and Leamington, Vale of Clywd are close - well, these are the sorts of seats Con need to be gaining just to offset losses to SNP and LD.

    Chesterfield is a surprise. Is it the LibDems mounting another attack on it? Can't be Tories, can it?
    Might be a 3 way marginal, who knows :D

    I expect Labour will hold it with a reduced majority.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    148grss said:

    welshowl said:

    RobD said:

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    That has to be criminal surely?
    Another activist raised the option of setting off fire alarms in office buildings. He said: "Could setting off fire alarms in certain buildings perhaps be made part of this action? Enter building, eg. a bank or govt office and set off the fire alarm.

    "Employees file out and they get to hear climate emergency speeches from XR people with megaphones."


    I'm sure they will be very receptive.
    Well global warming or not, they’re won’t be a lot of sunshine where some of those megaphones might end up.

    Have they forgotten the East End tube incident already?
    I mean, I read it as taking alarms with them and setting them off in buildings, not setting off the alarms of buildings.

    But also, these are apparently telegram messages, something that is nigh impossible to prove who they come from / go to. This could easily be some people making stuff up and trying to make XR look bad in the wake of Hallam being a complete arsehole.
    Possibly. But XR need to be careful. Essentially they are pushing at an open door given the vast majority welcome things like wind being x% more of our electricity generation than ten years ago or whatever. However, if you decide to push too far too fast you end up not “just blowing the bloody doors off” so to speak but wrecking the whole cause because a lot of people get pissed off.

    The tube train was a portent. If they don’t ease off people are likely to get hurt, which isn’t good all ways round obviously.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Jumper said:

    The Labour Party would decriminalise abortion in Britain, making it legal to have an abortion for any reason up to the birth of a child, a party spokeswoman has confirmed.

    The party’s manifesto, launched today ahead of the December 12 general election, says: “We will uphold women’s reproductive rights and decriminalise abortions.”

    A Labour spokeswoman confirmed to the Catholic Herald that this would mean the repeal of the relevant sections of the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act, which currently bans abortion.


    https://catholicherald.co.uk/news/2019/11/21/labour-would-totally-decriminalise-abortion-party-spokeswoman-confirms/

    If Labour want to make abortion legal for any reason the woman chooses, right up until she is about to give birth, how strange they didn't put it in their manifesto. How strange too that they seem unaware that the 1861 Offences Against the Person Act was amended by David Steel's Abortion Act 1967. What's more likely is that they want to end the Northern Ireland abortion ban and there was a proofreading error. Have CCHQ been on the phone to the Catholic Herald?
    Incorrect. It is in the manifesto in two places - only in one place does it relate to Northern Ireland. I have quoted the precise wording up thread. In relation to NI, the wording is this: “ Women in Northern Ireland should
    have access to abortions in Northern Ireland
    .
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    I think we’ll see by the weekend polls whether Labours manifesto is going to crash and burn .

    Personally I think they’ve made a mistake by including too many proposals and the manifesto to use an analogy is like one of those albums which has a few good songs and a load of rubbish fillers .

    And I’m saying this as a normal Labour voter , would it stop me from voting Labour, no , because I don’t expect the full manifesto would ever be implemented even if a miracle happened and they got elected .

    I do feel the only way the Labour plans would really help them pollwise is if the public felt that a radical change was needed and were willing to roll the dice.

    I’m not convinced that’s where the public are.
  • Another not happy about the Labour manifesto:

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1197778910836117504?s=20
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    One labour policy I find puzzling is banning free schools and academies. Some of their key voter groups in cities put a high store on academic achievement for their children.

    Telling them their school is closing down and becoming a comp - have they thought this through?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    The news on Labour’s abortion policy must be wrong or misinterpreted, surely?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Aren’t there like eight non-royal dukedoms, no doubt with comprehensive bios on Wikipedia. Anyone want to check?
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976

    Another not happy about the Labour manifesto:

    https://twitter.com/helenlewis/status/1197778910836117504?s=20

    I'm really starting to wonder how Labour are going to manage the competing demands from all the special interest groups they're cultivating. We've already seen a split open up on the Muslim/LGBT front with regards to education, and the feminist/trans rights situation seems to get more complicated by the day. It's surely only a matter of time before we get animal welfare right vs Muslims (and Jews, not that that's likely to matter) on ritual slaughter, and potentially a parallel issue on circumcision. I guess they'll all stay together at least as long as they can agree they hate the Tories more than anyone else.
  • RobD said:

    The news on Labour’s abortion policy must be wrong or misinterpreted, surely?

    I suspect (hope) just not fully thought through.....either that or its an heroic dead cat to blow their spending numbers out of the news....
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,272
    edited November 2019

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    Imagine getting dolled up like that for a fancy dress party only to discover everyone else had the same idea.

    PS. Kudos to the guys who came as policemen.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    nico67 said:

    I think we’ll see by the weekend polls whether Labours manifesto is going to crash and burn .

    Personally I think they’ve made a mistake by including too many proposals and the manifesto to use an analogy is like one of those albums which has a few good songs and a load of rubbish fillers .

    And I’m saying this as a normal Labour voter , would it stop me from voting Labour, no , because I don’t expect the full manifesto would ever be implemented even if a miracle happened and they got elected .

    I do feel the only way the Labour plans would really help them pollwise is if the public felt that a radical change was needed and were willing to roll the dice.

    I’m not convinced that’s where the public are.

    Well for what it’s worth my soft left Mrs who was very prescient about T May damaging herself by ducking out of the debates last time, totally unprompted (honest!) said this morning and I quote “well any concerns I had about not voting Labour have just gone. I’ve just listened to that McDonnell on Radio 4. What a total bloody list of failed 70’s policies”.

    Hardly scientific, sample of one, might mean Jezza on plus 7 come the next polls, but she ain’t usually far off.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    Helen Lewis

    "Deleting my tweets from yesterday on the Labour manifesto as the party is now putting out a contradictory briefing which suggests they don’t acknowledge a distinction between sex & gender. Feels reminiscent of their Brexit policy: a fudge to avoid losing votes on either side."

    Anyone know what`s going on here? Sex is biological whereas gender is how an individual chooses to identify. Didn`t think there was controversy over this?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Xtrain said:

    They didn't do quite as well in Chichester! 2 gains for the Tories last night, one from the reds one from the yellows. Looking ominous for dec 12
    Where was the gain from the reds?
    Cardiff
    Now this is significant.

    Pile on Scons.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1197863609197645825
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464

    Wonder how many in real emergencies will die because emergency services are dealing with fake alarms?

    https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1197846957420679169?s=20

    Imagine getting dolled up like that for a fancy dress party only to discover everyone else had the same idea.
    Why are they dressed up like some Medici from the late 1400’s?
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    Apperently BoJo's labour opponent in Uxbridge was very anti semitic when he was head of Brunel Uni student union.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    There will be an Ipsos Mori Scotland only poll out soon.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    RobD said:

    The news on Labour’s abortion policy must be wrong or misinterpreted, surely?

    I would give them the benefit of the doubt on the content, but would expect some clarification.

    It may be ambiguous, badly worded, mischievously misrepresented or misunderstood. I do not believe they are so unconnected to life, morality and reality to propose a full term - 1 day abortion limit.
  • Latest @IpsosMORI shows Labour’s party image suffering over the last two years. Their ratings on being divided, extreme, and fit to govern have got worse, on all of which they trail the Conservatives. (1/4) https://t.co/4rDcZe0qsG https://t.co/TZZs6eBiKT
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,222
    IanB2 said:
    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry


    Wollaston, Gyimah, Lee?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    As the follow up tweets make clear this is a spoof.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Alistair said:

    There will be an Ipsos Mori Scotland only poll out soon.

    Should I have my Klaxon ready?

    :D
  • Scottish Council by-elections:

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1197875857676734464?s=20

    See earlier tweets for caveats
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Just had a campaign event request for the SE.

    Looks like strong defences being mounted in Guildford, Hastings and Rye, Crawley and Milton Keynes North and South. They have many more events than anywhere else.

    Strong offence in Reading East.

    Make of that what you will.

    Crawley is the key one.

    It is very white working class, and if tories are going there, they haven't put a majority away yet.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    nico67 said:

    The Labour abortion policy is really on the law because currently abortion is illegal but has exceptions . Any policy change would then have to be debated and voted on in the Commons where limits would be put.

    The Labour proposal is just making abortion legal. I think Labour need to clarify what exactly the term limits they would think acceptable .

    This debate has passed me by somewhat, I assumed it was more just that the labour policy is sloppily drafted and it appears if carried out literally would have unforeseen effects, but that thats clearly not their intent. Is that right?
  • Colour me 100% unsurprised.

    Con Leavers have returned home to Con.

    BXP will absorb Labour voters who will never vote Tory.
  • One labour policy I find puzzling is banning free schools and academies. Some of their key voter groups in cities put a high store on academic achievement for their children.

    Telling them their school is closing down and becoming a comp - have they thought this through?

    It's similar to their obsession with banning the use of outsourcing in the NHS. So all those people who are delighted that they can now get good care in places like the Horder Centre in Sussex are in for a shock if the policy is ever implemented.

    However, Labour are throwing so many half-baked, eye-wateringly expensive, ideologically-motivated and often plain bonkers policies at voters that things like these won't get noticed, unless the Tories are really, really good at targetted messaging.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    IanB2 said:

    Here are the chances of a few high profile MPs LOSING, based on Ladbrokes's latest odds.

    65% Chuka Umunna
    36% Laura Pidcock
    32% Iain Duncan Smith
    30% Yvette Cooper
    30% John Redwood
    29% Jo Swinson
    22% Boris Johnson
    20% Jacob Rees-Mogg
    18% Dominic Raab
    17% Emily Thornberry

    Depressingly low odds. I'd feel most bad a out Chuka, as while I'm not really a fan of his I respect that he took personal action to back up his words, rather than some rather shameful self promoters who get feted for tough talk then do nothing.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    Colour me 100% unsurprised.

    Con Leavers have returned home to Con.

    BXP will absorb Labour voters who will never vote Tory.
    Farage, you absolute boy! :D
  • Alistair said:

    As the follow up tweets make clear this is a spoof.
    Or "Fake News".....10 hours and 4,000 re-tweets later....the "clarification" has had 30 re-tweets
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    ''Ballot Box of Scotland''

    One of the anthem suggestions the SRU rejected?

  • Time for you all the review your bets on the SCons. Keith and Cullen ward in Moray and SNP not winning here. If the swing from the SNP to the SCons is replicated in 3 weeks then whoever had that bet on SCons winning up to 16 seats may be on a winner. Perth, Lanark and Hamilton East among other seats would clearly be in play!
This discussion has been closed.