Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
If this is a good poll for Labour, then let me quote Pyrrhus of Epirus after winning the battle of Asculum: "If we win one more victory like this, we shall be utterly ruined!"
For labour to close much more they need conservative to labour switches and I doubt one conservative has or will move over to labour
The squeeze on TBP may actually break more for the conservatives, so where are labours votes coming from ?
Only from the Lib Dems, whose leader, members, and voters are now being subjected to round-the-clock abuse from Momentum trolls on Twitter.
No doubt that will be very effective in winning hearts and minds!
What percentage of the total electorate subjects itself to being slagged off on Twitter?
A small one - but it's so wall-to-wall they may at least hear about it and get pissed off!
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
I have a little on each of those, but only the price of a pint.
Wise. I’m expecting those prices to come in as the Scottish polls start to dribble in and the lights go up.
Unless Swinson and/or Rennie blow up. Which is entirely feasible.
I reckon that Unionist Scots like to see their party leaders on a national stage, as they did with Brown, Kennedy, Steel. Even to an extent Davidson, who is probably the best known Unionist Scottish politician South of the Border.
Do you think the Scons not currently having a leader will hurt them? I’m not sure it will. The whole point of Unionism is that you are a big fan of London rule, so a leader in London is all they need.
The Wiki poll summary site is being a bit slow adding the latest polls... I presume they have tightened up editing rights and checking after those fake polls were added last week?
The Wiki poll summary site is being a bit slow adding the latest polls... I presume they have tightened up editing rights and checking after those fake polls were added last week?
The Tories firewall is the BP standing down in those 317 seats . That means they can direct more resources to other seats .
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Politics doesn't work like this - seriously.
The Conservatives will still work in the 317 seats - in fact, that's where most of their effort will be because that's where most of their activists are I suspect.
Stephen Timms and a dozen Labour activists were in East Ham High Street today - Timms has a wafer thin 39,883 majority so while I understand why he was out talking to his constituents (they aren't technically at the moment) what were the other activists doing? Why weren't they out working to defend Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North which the Conservatives have targeted or going up to Chingford and Woodford Green which, if Labour were doing better, would be a plausible objective?
I know the local East Ham Conservatives went up to Chingford and Woodford Green to support IDS but again I'm thinking - why? They are miles ahead and should be looking to gain Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North rather than defending seats they won't lose.
As a young Liberal I was told "if you can't win where you are, find where you can win and go there".
Wes Streeting has a majority of over 9,000 in Ilford North. Don't think the Tories will be winning here!
Indeed, plus Momentum have been piling in activists to Chingford where I have also been. The only realistic Tory gains on current polls in London are Kensington, Battersea, Enfield Southgate and Croydon South, otherwise it is about learning from 2017 and holding what we have got south of Watford and making gains in the North, Wales and the Midlands to get the majority.
Relying on the North to vote Tory to get them a majority. Does that not.worry you?
No, they want Brexit done as does the Midlands and Wales.
Huge 22% swing in the North West from Labour to the Tories for example but zero in the South East.
14% swing from Labour to the Tories in the West Midlands.
London still has a swing from Labour to the Tories but smaller at 12%
The findings come after research by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) last week found that support for Jeremy Corbyn had plummeted by 10 per cent since April among those with a household income of below £17,000.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
"steadily creeping upwards".
Hmmm. Uner this poll, if Labour were a Formula 1 car, it would just have been lapped.
Twice.
The Tories' numbers are a bit all over the shop at the moment. Labour's are consistently rising.
Given the business with the Brexit Party partial stand-down it may take a little more time for it to show, but between now and election day the average polling gap between Con and Lab will narrow.
Whether it'll be sufficient to stop a Conservative majority, I'm not prepared to say - but I do think it'll be a close run thing.
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
The more you see of Johnson's smirk the more you want to smack him in the face. Making sure you can vote is the next best thing?
Hundreds of thousands of people want to assault the PM?
At least I'd think. He almost got lynched in Yorkshire today.
Those Yorkshire WWC folk should love cuddly Boris, haven't they read Cummings script?
The findings come after research by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) last week found that support for Jeremy Corbyn had plummeted by 10 per cent since April among those with a household income of below £17,000.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
There is a certain amount of hatred I have for the Yellow Peril.....the Canterbury stunt showed that they are a bunch of...rhymes with stunt, and includes a c at the expense of the st.....
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
"steadily creeping upwards".
Hmmm. Uner this poll, if Labour were a Formula 1 car, it would just have been lapped.
Twice.
The Tories' numbers are a bit all over the shop at the moment. Labour's are consistently rising.
Given the business with the Brexit Party partial stand-down it may take a little more time for it to show, but between now and election day the average polling gap between Con and Lab will narrow.
Whether it'll be sufficient to stop a Conservative majority, I'm not prepared to say - but I do think it'll be a close run thing.
'The exclusive Savanta ComRes survey for The Daily Telegraph found that 43 per cent of voters from the DE social group are prepared to vote for the Tories on December 12, up from 35 per cent in 2017. The poll found 40 per cent of AB voters plan to back Mr Johnson compared to 46 per cent who were prepared to vote for Theresa May two years ago. As champions of free-market capitalism, the Conservatives have always traditionally been seen as the party of the rich. However, since the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the largely Remain voting so-called metropolitan liberal elite have pivoted to the Liberal Democrats. Conversely, working-class Leave voters are increasingly backing the Prime Minister’s promise to ‘get Brexit done’ in the face of Labour prevarication over a second referendum.
...Among 2016 Leave voters, more than three in five (62 per cent) intend to vote for the Conservatives, while less than one in six (14 per cent) intend to vote for the Brexit Party. Just under half of 2016 Remain voters (45 per cent) intend to vote for Labour, while a quarter (26 per cent) intend to vote for the Lib Dems.
...In an indication of support for one of Mr Johnson’s flagship policies, over half of adults (56 per cent) would support changing the law so that military veterans are given new legal protection to prevent further prosecutions over killings during the Northern Ireland Troubles, compared to just one in ten (10 per cent) who would oppose it. The survey also found that two in five (41 per cent) British adults would oppose holding a second referendum on Scottish independence in 2020. This is compared to a quarter (24 per cent) who would support it'
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
I have a little on each of those, but only the price of a pint.
Wise. I’m expecting those prices to come in as the Scottish polls start to dribble in and the lights go up.
Unless Swinson and/or Rennie blow up. Which is entirely feasible.
I reckon .
Do you think the Scons not currently having a leader will hurt them? I’m not sure it will. The whole point of Unionism is that you are a big fan of London rule, so a leader in London is all they need.
The stand-ins Carlaw and Jack have zero profile.
I think that the psychology of Unionism requires popularity south of the border, mere Scottish popularity is not enough. I think the loss of Davidson and any credible SLAB leader damages those parties. I see this benefiting Swinson and not just in her own seat. Not that this will nessecary translate to many gains, but the shift in unionist votes may aid some SCon losses.
Obviously for Scottish Nationalists this doesn't apply, indeed being disliked south of the border can be an asset!
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
There is a certain amount of hatred I have for the Yellow Peril.....the Canterbury stunt showed that they are a bunch of...rhymes with stunt, and includes a c at the expense of the st.....
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
So I take it you won’t be voting Lib Dem then ! You need to be a bit more straightforward. Lol
The Tories would be idiots to enter into a pact with the BP. They'd lose voters off the other end and they'd be handing over 40 seats to a group of people they cannot control - what if Farage blows up during the campaign, says something truly outrageous, and the BP are holed below the water line? And the Tories would be damned by association. Call me old fashioned but they should give every seat an honest shot and leave the Farage soap opera to its own devices.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
There is a certain amount of hatred I have for the Yellow Peril.....the Canterbury stunt showed that they are a bunch of...rhymes with stunt, and includes a c at the expense of the st.....
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
Stick him down as Prob LD and move on to nextdoor.
The findings come after research by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) last week found that support for Jeremy Corbyn had plummeted by 10 per cent since April among those with a household income of below £17,000.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
"steadily creeping upwards".
Hmmm. Uner this poll, if Labour were a Formula 1 car, it would just have been lapped.
Twice.
The Tories' numbers are a bit all over the shop at the moment. Labour's are consistently rising.
Given the business with the Brexit Party partial stand-down it may take a little more time for it to show, but between now and election day the average polling gap between Con and Lab will narrow.
Whether it'll be sufficient to stop a Conservative majority, I'm not prepared to say - but I do think it'll be a close run thing.
At the expense of the LibDems?
Combination of Remain tactical voting in Con-Lab marginals, and (more importantly) ex-Labour Leave voters dumping Boris and going back to their old allegiances.
But yes, I'd expect the Lib Dem polling numbers to soften a little. There will evidently be an awful lot more Labour defences where LD votes could be squeezed to shore up the incumbent against a Con challenger, than there will be seats where Labour voters might vote tactically to help a Lib see off a Tory. This should make a difference as less engaged voters begin to pay more attention to the election, and think about the situation that prevails in their locality.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
Interestingly, though, the LD vote fell in the initial aftermath of the election announcement, but has been steady at 15-17% in every poll in the last week. (Sunil's Elbow even has them up a mighty 0.1% in the week to yesterday.)
Now, I know I'm in the US and all - well, technically Hong Kong right now - but I don't get the feeling the LDs are going to be squeezed anywhere near as much as 2017. Firstly, this is more of a Brexit election. Secondly, Jo Swinson may not be Charlie Kennedy, but at least the headlines about her are not about homosexuality being a sin. Thirdly, Corbyn is markedly less popular (and rather better known) than last time around. I think this limits his ability to make tactical gains from the LDs.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
There is a certain amount of hatred I have for the Yellow Peril.....the Canterbury stunt showed that they are a bunch of...rhymes with stunt, and includes a c at the expense of the st.....
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
Stick him down as Prob LD and move on to nextdoor.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick has said he will enter the Democratic presidential race, say people familiar with his conversations, reversing an earlier decision not to seek the White House.
Deval Patrick will not, I suspect, be the Democratic nominee. He will, I suspect, sink without a trace. However, he (and Bloomberg if he runs) will further fragment the moderate vote. This increases the likelihood of Sanders or Warren being the nominee.
A majority of voters support FOM in the Comres . 38% of Leavers support it aswell .
Perhaps the penny is finally dropping for some , Brits lose out aswell when FOM ends .
Sigh.... When will you lot finally grasp that many of us Leave voters didn’t have an issue with immigration?
Then we could have saved a lot of drama and stayed in the single market . Out of the customs union and you get your trade deals and us Remainers get FOM.
Indeed. If remainers had bothered to work with my sort of Leaver we’d be heading towards EFTA/EEA absent the silly CU idea. But you didn’t - you all sulked instead.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
There is a certain amount of hatred I have for the Yellow Peril.....the Canterbury stunt showed that they are a bunch of...rhymes with stunt, and includes a c at the expense of the st.....
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
CON 41 overall Maj of 16
41/35/10 would deliver Con a bigger majority than 16 surely?
Baxterising those numbers and inputting reasonable estimates for Scotland (SNP 40, Con 25 and the others well behind) yields a Con maj of about 30. Allowing for a bit of non-uniform swing and where exactly the surviving BXP vote has come from, one could easily imagine the Conservative majority being anywhere between single figures and 50 or 60 under those circumstances.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
Interestingly, though, the LD vote fell in the initial aftermath of the election announcement, but has been steady at 15-17% in every poll in the last week. (Sunil's Elbow even has them up a mighty 0.1% in the week to yesterday.)
Now, I know I'm in the US and all - well, technically Hong Kong right now - but I don't get the feeling the LDs are going to be squeezed anywhere near as much as 2017. Firstly, this is more of a Brexit election. Secondly, Jo Swinson may not be Charlie Kennedy, but at least the headlines about her are not about homosexuality being a sin. Thirdly, Corbyn is markedly less popular (and rather better known) than last time around. I think this limits his ability to make tactical gains from the LDs.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
CON 41 overall Maj of 16
41/35/10 would deliver Con a bigger majority than 16 surely?
Baxterising those numbers and inputting reasonable estimates for Scotland (SNP 40, Con 25 and the others well behind) yields a Con maj of about 30. Allowing for a bit of non-uniform swing and where exactly the surviving BXP vote has come from, one could easily imagine the Conservative majority being anywhere between single figures and 50 or 60 under those circumstances.
Since when was "Con 25" a reasonable estimate for Scotland? 1979?
A majority of voters support FOM in the Comres . 38% of Leavers support it aswell .
Perhaps the penny is finally dropping for some , Brits lose out aswell when FOM ends .
Sigh.... When will you lot finally grasp that many of us Leave voters didn’t have an issue with immigration?
Then we could have saved a lot of drama and stayed in the single market . Out of the customs union and you get your trade deals and us Remainers get FOM.
Indeed. If remainers had bothered to work with my sort of Leaver we’d be heading towards EFTA/EEA absent the silly CU idea. But you didn’t - you all sulked instead.
At what point was that consensus invited? Ever since TMay came out against FOM, any ECJ control, leaving SM & CU, there has been no chance of building it. She gambled the farm on getting enough Tories behind a relatively-hard Brexit (compared to your outcome) and failed. Essentially, she and Boris have behaved like they have a majority of 100, when this could only be done by acknowledging the hung parliament they faced (indeed created through the 2017 election) and negotiating a shared vision of Brexit.
The alternatives to a Tory-led delivery of that would be Grieve and Bercow back seat driving the whole thing through by suspending standing orders on every clause of a 100-page bill, or half a dozen parties agreeing to put Corbyn in Downing Street. Neither of which would happen.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
There is a certain amount of hatred I have for the Yellow Peril.....the Canterbury stunt showed that they are a bunch of...rhymes with stunt, and includes a c at the expense of the st.....
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
So, what you're saying is that the LDs should stand down for the Labour Party because that's their duty?
It's attitudes like this that make me want to vote LD*. It's completely over the top hatred.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
CON 41 overall Maj of 16
41/35/10 would deliver Con a bigger majority than 16 surely?
Baxterising those numbers and inputting reasonable estimates for Scotland (SNP 40, Con 25 and the others well behind) yields a Con maj of about 30. Allowing for a bit of non-uniform swing and where exactly the surviving BXP vote has come from, one could easily imagine the Conservative majority being anywhere between single figures and 50 or 60 under those circumstances.
Since when was "Con 25" a reasonable estimate for Scotland? 1979?
They did better than that in 2017.
The Scottish section of that large YouGov published in late October was SNP 42, Con 22, LD 13 and Lab 12, and that's obviously before the Brexit Party abandoned all the Con defence seats. I await further evidence from Scotland-only surveys because I think Scotland may well prove critical to the overall outcome of the election, but 25% doesn't seem wildly unreasonable based on the information currently available.
That said, I did qualify my estimate by quoting a range. The difference between an OK night and a rotten one for the SCons could easily be 7 or 8 seats on or off the overall tally.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
Edinburgh West?
It scores very well on my Four Factors model. UNS: check. Remainia: check. Local strength: check. Other votes to squeeze: check.
Why would it not be fairly comfortable hold for the Yellow?
Because Jardine is one of the biggest dunderheids in Scottish politics. And my goodness, she has plenty of competition.
Incidentally, I cannot understand your “UNS: check”. We haven’t had any Scottish polls in order to judge SLD to SNP swing or vice versa, but the sub-samples point to zero movement either way. “Remania” is also a neutral, as both parties are Remain (and, being the government, the SNP gets all the profile). “Local strength“? Also applies to both. “Other votes to squeeze”: also applies to both.
The Lib Dems massively out strength the SNP in Edinburgh West.
In 2017 the Michelle Thomson witch hunt was still in full cry - that aspect has been defused.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
CON 41 overall Maj of 16
41/35/10 would deliver Con a bigger majority than 16 surely?
Baxterising those numbers and inputting reasonable estimates for Scotland (SNP 40, Con 25 and the others well behind) yields a Con maj of about 30. Allowing for a bit of non-uniform swing and where exactly the surviving BXP vote has come from, one could easily imagine the Conservative majority being anywhere between single figures and 50 or 60 under those circumstances.
Since when was "Con 25" a reasonable estimate for Scotland? 1979?
They did better than that in 2017.
The Scottish section of that large YouGov published in late October was SNP 42, Con 22, LD 13 and Lab 12, and that's obviously before the Brexit Party abandoned all the Con defence seats. I await further evidence from Scotland-only surveys because I think Scotland may well prove critical to the overall outcome of the election, but 25% doesn't seem wildly unreasonable based on the information currently available.
That said, I did qualify my estimate by quoting a range. The difference between an OK night and a rotten one for the SCons could easily be 7 or 8 seats on or off the overall tally.
Were those 22 SCon seats part of the Ruth Factor?
I suppose that as long as they get more than 5 seats then, by your model, Boris wins?
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I think LAB 35 LD 10 by 12.12.19
There is a certain amount of hatred I have for the Yellow Peril.....the Canterbury stunt showed that they are a bunch of...rhymes with stunt, and includes a c at the expense of the st.....
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
You mean, except in the article, where it says they couldn't agree...
Perceptions matter more than facts in some circumstances.
When you sup with the devil, bring a long spoon...
Would Tories do that unless they really needed to? Is it a sign of returns about not how they are doing say where our markymark is canvassing but where they are trying to dislodge Labour.
What I mean is, as we all think, BP is bust, it’s melting away to Tories like a snow farage on a hot spring day, why would the Tories seek a pact, unless they are panicking?
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Telling what you hear on the doorsteps is fine. Extrapolating from the elderly of Torbay to the national vote is the error.
"Elderly"? Couldn't resist a snidy little put down?
I think people here know who is the one to rely upon for their betting tips.....
No. It is you being snide. As you well know when canvassing you get a disproportionate bias to the older voter simply because they are most likely to be at home. Grow up and grow a pair.
Comments
Surely it is illogical to chalk BXP voters up as Tories on holiday in Devon but not in Durham?
The stand-ins Carlaw and Jack have zero profile.
If so, who's vetting? (A: No one atm!)
Huge 22% swing in the North West from Labour to the Tories for example but zero in the South East.
14% swing from Labour to the Tories in the West Midlands.
London still has a swing from Labour to the Tories but smaller at 12%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/13/tories-popular-among-working-class-rich-new-general-election/
Given the business with the Brexit Party partial stand-down it may take a little more time for it to show, but between now and election day the average polling gap between Con and Lab will narrow.
Whether it'll be sufficient to stop a Conservative majority, I'm not prepared to say - but I do think it'll be a close run thing.
They are appalling....sell out, vacuous, little pond life existing below slime......
OK- I'll go for it....Fuck off you LD knobjockeys.....seriously what does this political party stand for?????
Though Williams still have some excellent engineers.
Truly, if Labour were in F1, it would no longer exist.
Obviously for Scottish Nationalists this doesn't apply, indeed being disliked south of the border can be an asset!
Tactical Voting and Voting Efficiency Changes means no Uniform Swing i think anyway.
Too difficult for Lab to stop Tory Maj now BXP deal done.
But yes, I'd expect the Lib Dem polling numbers to soften a little. There will evidently be an awful lot more Labour defences where LD votes could be squeezed to shore up the incumbent against a Con challenger, than there will be seats where Labour voters might vote tactically to help a Lib see off a Tory. This should make a difference as less engaged voters begin to pay more attention to the election, and think about the situation that prevails in their locality.
Now, I know I'm in the US and all - well, technically Hong Kong right now - but I don't get the feeling the LDs are going to be squeezed anywhere near as much as 2017. Firstly, this is more of a Brexit election. Secondly, Jo Swinson may not be Charlie Kennedy, but at least the headlines about her are not about homosexuality being a sin. Thirdly, Corbyn is markedly less popular (and rather better known) than last time around. I think this limits his ability to make tactical gains from the LDs.
I voted for Charlie
The alternatives to a Tory-led delivery of that would be Grieve and Bercow back seat driving the whole thing through by suspending standing orders on every clause of a 100-page bill, or half a dozen parties agreeing to put Corbyn in Downing Street. Neither of which would happen.
How would you have seen it being delivered
It's attitudes like this that make me want to vote LD*. It's completely over the top hatred.
* Not enough to actually vote LD, obviously.
The Scottish section of that large YouGov published in late October was SNP 42, Con 22, LD 13 and Lab 12, and that's obviously before the Brexit Party abandoned all the Con defence seats. I await further evidence from Scotland-only surveys because I think Scotland may well prove critical to the overall outcome of the election, but 25% doesn't seem wildly unreasonable based on the information currently available.
That said, I did qualify my estimate by quoting a range. The difference between an OK night and a rotten one for the SCons could easily be 7 or 8 seats on or off the overall tally.
I suppose that as long as they get more than 5 seats then, by your model, Boris wins?
What I mean is, as we all think, BP is bust, it’s melting away to Tories like a snow farage on a hot spring day, why would the Tories seek a pact, unless they are panicking?