It doesn't even beat Willie Rennie mucking out pigs.
Different times. Different audience. This seems a pretty good photo shoot to me and a worthy cause to be supporting (the venue not the Lib Dems ). I don't really see the downside for her.
I cannot remember Richard ever saying anything positive about Swinson
I hadn't realised quite how useless Jon Ashworth actually is. He's being ripped apart by Brillo.
Sadly most of the labour front bench are equally as good!
I wouldn't say that many of the Tory front bench are much better. the lot of them are like two bald men fighting over a comb
Well quite, both so called ‘main’ parties have relegated their best players to national leagues north and south and the country is left with the consequences.
It doesn't even beat Willie Rennie mucking out pigs.
Why is she wearing a “Girly Swot” t-shirt?
Again, without being subtle or funny, it’s just a bit juvenile.
Kinda ties in with the bollocks to Brexit meme. Juvenile.
I was told that the Girly Swot jibe comes up an awful lot in focus groups (and not just the ones run by the Tories.)
There's an entire group of women who generally voted Conservative but can be described as Boris sceptic, whilst Corbyn is the alternative Boris Johnson is fine, but I suspect Jo Swinson is playing the long game for the election after next.
She’ll have to given she’s blown this one.
A boxing contest between the leaders would get 35 million more viewers than them droning on in live debates; plus all the betting opportunities. I think JC would be a rank outsider.
JC v BJ would be a contest between endurance and slugging. BJ knockout or JC on points.
But JC doesn't believe in defence, so he would be wide open to a right hook
But if he can make it through 6 rounds of being present but not involved, the Fat One would tire. From slugger to sluggish. I've seen big men taken down by wiry scrappers.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
SNP drifting in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Con Maj = 11,060)
Con 1/3 SNP 11/4 Bxp 50/1 LD 50/1 Lab 100/1
Note: the Liberal Democrats held this seat from the 1960s until 2015. They are now 50/1. Times change.
Ludicrously generous odds on Con. Should be 1/10 at the longest.
Majority ~21pp. Con down about 7pp in Scotland GE polling, SNP up about 3pp. Volatile seat, with three different parties winning in the last three elections. Personally, I'd not risk my money on anyone here. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see it fall.
When the SNP took it they took it with a vote of 37% when they were polling 50% nationally.
Whilst I imagine the SNP will get back the Labour 4 Indy voters who were attracted by a bit of Corbyn ism to bunt them back up to around that 37% there will not be enough SCon back to LD voter to bring the Conservatives down to within range.
Does anyone else remember swingback? Or does that only work if you have an opposition credible enough to be in the lead?
The average swing in the four by-elections was 0.9% Labour to Conservatives. I forget how much swingback tended to be, but I guess that would imply a modest swing in Johnson's favour, maybe 3-5%. That would give the Tories a lead of 8.4-12.4% in GB vote share, consistent with current opinion polls.
The Tory - Lib Dem swing might be more interesting. That averaged 12.2% over the by-elections, so with some swingback you might be looking at a swing of 8-10% to the Lib Dems. That would reduce the Tory lead over the yellow peril from 35.8% to 16-20%. In current opinion polls that deficit is in the range of 20-27% so perhaps there's scope for the Lib Dems to improve.
Overview of Notts seats - the blog is historically left-leaning and anti-Soubry, now less so, but after the playful discussion of the ex-BXP candidate this one is more about other seats and quite neutral in flavour.
The only 3 Nottinghamshire seats that will not be Blue after the election are the three Nottingham city seats. And even there there will be big cuts in the majorities.
Overview of Notts seats - the blog is historically left-leaning and anti-Soubry, now less so, but after the playful discussion of the ex-BXP candidate this one is more about other seats and quite neutral in flavour.
The only 3 Nottinghamshire seats that will not be Blue after the election are the three Nottingham city seats. And even there there will be big cuts in the majorities.
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Quite possibly. I thought it would be a generation for the LDs to recover to their position of 2015, but it looks to be as short as a Scottish generation.
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Well while I no longer door step I’m sad to report that where I live it’s 49% brexit party 49% lib dem, of those who have a vote it’s 100% lib dem! So every cloud has a silver lining.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Does anyone else remember swingback? Or does that only work if you have an opposition credible enough to be in the lead?
Swingback will be a prominent feature of this election, north of the border.
SCon to SLD swingback.
I doubt it although some recovery in the Lib Dem vote from the last time is surely inevitable. They did astonishingly well to get the seats they did last time out with the total number of votes received. Some of those votes might come from the SNP. On Brexit at least they are fishing in the same pool.
Wishful thinking.
Although the SLDs have the wrong spokespeople, they have the right message (for their target audience): pro-Union + pro-Union. The Clown is selling a dud: pro-Union + anti-Union.
40% of Scots disagreed with that in the referendum. That’s a nice deep pool for the Tories to fish in and, at least in their own seats, they have it all to themselves.
Flaws:
- 38% is not 40% - not all those 38% are pro-Union - if a deep pool was jam-packed full of salmon and sea-trout, the Scottish Tories would still manage to come home with two sticklebacks and a minnow. - no party has “their own seats”
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Overview of Notts seats - the blog is historically left-leaning and anti-Soubry, now less so, but after the playful discussion of the ex-BXP candidate this one is more about other seats and quite neutral in flavour.
The only 3 Nottinghamshire seats that will not be Blue after the election are the three Nottingham city seats. And even there there will be big cuts in the majorities.
Credit where credit is due. Labour seem to have selected an excellent local candidate, who grew up in and works in the constituency.
This is how representative democracy works.
What could possibly go wrong
She looks an entirely admirable young lady - 'girly swot' if she'd like to be so described.
She's 23 it seems. "I learned my politics from grassroots struggles, trade unions and local campaigns and these movements are coming with me to Parliament". I don't see that this is anything other than indoctrination. She may be right, and she may be wrong, but her ideas are very far from her own.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Million dollar question, if, in last days of campaign, you got a different impression from the doorsteps, would you tell us like Herdson did?
I would, but I would restrict any conclusions to Guildford.
My reporting that the LibDems were going to get a shellacking in the SW in 2015 was entirely valid. It was well sourced - and for those who follwed it, nicely profitable.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
If it was put, would it have been better if he had been captured if possible, I would say yes.
But then I’m probably thinking of pumping him with drugs so he sings, something Corbyn wouldn’t approve of?
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Interesting. Thanks.
NHS privatization is difficult to quantify, whilst outsourcing none medical services like catering laundry make sense does putting most of the mental care counseling facilities out to tender make any sense. My daughter works for one which was won by a not for profit group but suddenly found they had been evicted from NHS office and consulting facilities and had to go round begging church halls, pubs and fire stations to provide them space. None of this makes the headlines and is also ignored by labour who just want it all back under union control in the state run model. As usual no real debate takes place
First election leaflet through the door here in Basingstoke from Maria Miller (9000 odd majority). Obviously can’t see her losing - blue rosette on dumb donkey territory here - but thought interesting that no picture of Boris anywhere. Brexit barely mentioned, all on local issues and this was a leave area.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Interesting. Thanks.
Largely it is happening in deprived areas, where GPs cannot be appointed even with repeated advertisements. The CCGs wind up as direct employers instead.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
Remember after the Manchester bombing in 2017 Corbyn said that Britain's actions abroad were in part to blame for terrorist bombings happening here?
PB Tories went into a combination of meltdown and rapture both condemning him and loudly proclaiming that he had destroyed Labour's election chances.
The next day a YouGov poll came out showing 52% of people agreed with him. That was including Don't Knows so an absolute majority.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Interesting. Thanks.
NHS privatization is difficult to quantify, whilst outsourcing none medical services like catering laundry make sense does putting most of the mental care counseling facilities out to tender make any sense. My daughter works for one which was won by a not for profit group but suddenly found they had been evicted from NHS office and consulting facilities and had to go round begging church halls, pubs and fire stations to provide them space. None of this makes the headlines and is also ignored by labour who just want it all back under union control in the state run model. As usual no real debate takes place
Trumps America just as keen on buying into the postal service and BBC as our socialist healthcare system. But they won’t touch midwifery.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
What is with Corbyn and referendums? The mention of one seems to render him terminally indecisive.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
It doesn't even beat Willie Rennie mucking out pigs.
Different times. Different audience. This seems a pretty good photo shoot to me and a worthy cause to be supporting (the venue not the Lib Dems ). I don't really see the downside for her.
I cannot remember Richard ever saying anything positive about Swinson
When they start being nice to you, start worrying.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
Remember after the Manchester bombing in 2017 Corbyn said that Britain's actions abroad were in part to blame for terrorist bombings happening here?
PB Tories went into a combination of meltdown and rapture both condemning him and loudly proclaiming that he had destroyed Labour's election chances.
The next day a YouGov poll came out showing 52% of people agreed with him. That was including Don't Knows so an absolute majority.
Well Trump would agree with that. We’ve turned our heads away from the camps with ISIS in them, US pres now reckons they will walk to Europe and hurt us not manage to get to US.
First election leaflet through the door here in Basingstoke from Maria Miller (9000 odd majority). Obviously can’t see her losing - blue rosette on dumb donkey territory here - but thought interesting that no picture of Boris anywhere. Brexit barely mentioned, all on local issues and this was a leave area.
Reflection on Miller rather than anything else - she could hardly shout about brexit when she disagrees with her party and her constituency.
So a sniggering school boy line is briefed to media who respond with excitable predictability making it needless for the politician to say the words himself, blaming it on a "stray early draft". Hats off. They are playing the newspapers like turning on a pianola.
First election leaflet through the door here in Basingstoke from Maria Miller (9000 odd majority). Obviously can’t see her losing - blue rosette on dumb donkey territory here - but thought interesting that no picture of Boris anywhere. Brexit barely mentioned, all on local issues and this was a leave area.
Is Maria a Cameroon? Does she have a say on her leaflet?
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Well while I no longer door step I’m sad to report that where I live it’s 49% brexit party 49% lib dem, of those who have a vote it’s 100% lib dem! So every cloud has a silver lining.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Interesting. Thanks.
NHS privatization is difficult to quantify, whilst outsourcing none medical services like catering laundry make sense does putting most of the mental care counseling facilities out to tender make any sense. My daughter works for one which was won by a not for profit group but suddenly found they had been evicted from NHS office and consulting facilities and had to go round begging church halls, pubs and fire stations to provide them space. None of this makes the headlines and is also ignored by labour who just want it all back under union control in the state run model. As usual no real debate takes place
A lot of outsourced portering and estate work is now back in house, including my own Trust. After several poor outsourcings, and lack of compliance by contractors, our services are back in direct control.
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Million dollar question, if, in last days of campaign, you got a different impression from the doorsteps, would you tell us like Herdson did?
I would, but I would restrict any conclusions to Guildford.
My reporting that the LibDems were going to get a shellacking in the SW in 2015 was entirely valid. It was well sourced - and for those who follwed it, nicely profitable.
I
And although I have my doubts I can see that you may want to extrapolate from a SW seat to the wider SW - but extending that beyond the region? Therein lies madness.
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Million dollar question, if, in last days of campaign, you got a different impression from the doorsteps, would you tell us like Herdson did?
I would, but I would restrict any conclusions to Guildford.
My reporting that the LibDems were going to get a shellacking in the SW in 2015 was entirely valid. It was well sourced - and for those who follwed it, nicely profitable.
I
Are you predicting more of a mixed picture this time, high scoring draw?
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
First election leaflet through the door here in Basingstoke from Maria Miller (9000 odd majority). Obviously can’t see her losing - blue rosette on dumb donkey territory here - but thought interesting that no picture of Boris anywhere. Brexit barely mentioned, all on local issues and this was a leave area.
Is Maria a Cameroon? Does she have a say on her leaflet?
No idea, I’m just a humble voter and bettor; but I thought the absence of Boris was noteworthy if he supposed to be a great asset to Tory election fortunes.
First election leaflet through the door here in Basingstoke from Maria Miller (9000 odd majority). Obviously can’t see her losing - blue rosette on dumb donkey territory here - but thought interesting that no picture of Boris anywhere. Brexit barely mentioned, all on local issues and this was a leave area.
Reflection on Miller rather than anything else - she could hardly shout about brexit when she disagrees with her party and her constituency.
What about HS2? Did she not resign from Cabinet over that?
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
What is with Corbyn and referendums? The mention of one seems to render him terminally indecisive.
If you can't work out where the rich are on an issue then Corbyn is stumped.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Interesting. Thanks.
NHS privatization is difficult to quantify, whilst outsourcing none medical services like catering laundry make sense does putting most of the mental care counseling facilities out to tender make any sense. My daughter works for one which was won by a not for profit group but suddenly found they had been evicted from NHS office and consulting facilities and had to go round begging church halls, pubs and fire stations to provide them space. None of this makes the headlines and is also ignored by labour who just want it all back under union control in the state run model. As usual no real debate takes place
For me, discussion about outsourcing misses the point. The merit of successful privatisation is the democratisation of demand, not changing the supplier. The flow of money must be reversed - it should flow from the users of the service to the providers. Then the service will improve.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
Remember after the Manchester bombing in 2017 Corbyn said that Britain's actions abroad were in part to blame for terrorist bombings happening here?
So a sniggering school boy line is briefed to media who respond with excitable predictability making it needless for the politician to say the words himself, blaming it on a "stray early draft". Hats off. They are playing the newspapers like turning on a pianola.
Oh I think everyone appreciates what the game was but that shouldn't stop us having a little fun.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
If they don’t bang on about that, they might have to discuss their current policies, which would be far more awkward.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
What is with Corbyn and referendums? The mention of one seems to render him terminally indecisive.
If you can't work out where the rich are on an issue then Corbyn is stumped.
Or US Imperialists.
He's stumped on Brexit because both Putin and Trump want us to leave.
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Million dollar question, if, in last days of campaign, you got a different impression from the doorsteps, would you tell us like Herdson did?
I would, but I would restrict any conclusions to Guildford.
My reporting that the LibDems were going to get a shellacking in the SW in 2015 was entirely valid. It was well sourced - and for those who follwed it, nicely profitable.
I
Are you predicting more of a mixed picture this time, high scoring draw?
St. Ives likely to be a LibDem gain.
North Cornwall and North Devon are going to be tight. The comments of the previous LD candidate in North Devon are going to be played back. These ill-considered sentiments - and no Brexit Party - has made it significantly trickier for them in the SW.
It doesn't even beat Willie Rennie mucking out pigs.
Why is she wearing a “Girly Swot” t-shirt?
Again, without being subtle or funny, it’s just a bit juvenile.
Kinda ties in with the bollocks to Brexit meme. Juvenile.
I was told that the Girly Swot jibe comes up an awful lot in focus groups (and not just the ones run by the Tories.)
There's an entire group of women who generally voted Conservative but can be described as Boris sceptic, whilst Corbyn is the alternative Boris Johnson is fine, but I suspect Jo Swinson is playing the long game for the election after next.
She’ll have to given she’s blown this one.
Well it depends on when the next election is, if we do get a hung Parliament, or technical Tory majority that is more observed in the breach than observance then we could have another election in 2020.
Yep. See you all for GE Mar/April 2020.
Depends how hung, we might eke it out to the autumn 2020.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
No evidence of SCon to SLD drift? Here’s the current odds for Ross, Skye & Lochaber:
SNP 1/10 SLD 4/1 SCon 25/1 SLab 50/1
Result last time: SNP 40% SCon 25% SLD 21% SLab 12%
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Does anyone else remember swingback? Or does that only work if you have an opposition credible enough to be in the lead?
Swingback will be a prominent feature of this election, north of the border.
SCon to SLD swingback.
I doubt it although some recovery in the Lib Dem vote from the last time is surely inevitable. They did astonishingly well to get the seats they did last time out with the total number of votes received. Some of those votes might come from the SNP. On Brexit at least they are fishing in the same pool.
Wishful thinking.
Although the SLDs have the wrong spokespeople, they have the right message (for their target audience): pro-Union + pro-Union. The Clown is selling a dud: pro-Union + anti-Union.
If the LD's are pro-union why are they in an electoral alliance with a nationalist party in Wales?
Given we are told an informal alliance with BXP means the Tories are basically BXP too!
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
Remember after the Manchester bombing in 2017 Corbyn said that Britain's actions abroad were in part to blame for terrorist bombings happening here?
PB Tories went into a combination of meltdown and rapture both condemning him and loudly proclaiming that he had destroyed Labour's election chances.
The next day a YouGov poll came out showing 52% of people agreed with him. That was including Don't Knows so an absolute majority.
He was stupid and wrong. The fact the majority were dumb enough to agree doesnt change that.
It doesn't even beat Willie Rennie mucking out pigs.
Why is she wearing a “Girly Swot” t-shirt?
Again, without being subtle or funny, it’s just a bit juvenile.
Leaning into the casual sexism from Boris Johnson, co-opting it. It's a confident message. It works for me.
I'm still at a loss why it occurred to him to scribble a juvenille insult about Cameron in a note on a political strategy. I think it demonstrates that r he really is like that, it is not a persona he adopts.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Interesting. Thanks.
NHS privatization is difficult to quantify, whilst outsourcing none medical services like catering laundry make sense does putting most of the mental care counseling facilities out to tender make any sense. My daughter works for one which was won by a not for profit group but suddenly found they had been evicted from NHS office and consulting facilities and had to go round begging church halls, pubs and fire stations to provide them space. None of this makes the headlines and is also ignored by labour who just want it all back under union control in the state run model. As usual no real debate takes place
For me, discussion about outsourcing misses the point. The merit of successful privatisation is the democratisation of demand, not changing the supplier. The flow of money must be reversed - it should flow from the users of the service to the providers. Then the service will improve.
That is not how NHS privatisation works. Monopoly service contracts are sold off to the highest bidder, with your operation being sold like cattle at auction. It is not a system to serve the customer, unless you consider the CCG to be the customer, and the patient the commodity.
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Comments
He generally does ok for TV interviews I think.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Mine retired this summer. Age 55.
Whose done best against Brillo.
Whilst I imagine the SNP will get back the Labour 4 Indy voters who were attracted by a bit of Corbyn ism to bunt them back up to around that 37% there will not be enough SCon back to LD voter to bring the Conservatives down to within range.
Safe as house mate. Guaranteed, mortal lock FACT.
The Tory - Lib Dem swing might be more interesting. That averaged 12.2% over the by-elections, so with some swingback you might be looking at a swing of 8-10% to the Lib Dems. That would reduce the Tory lead over the yellow peril from 35.8% to 16-20%. In current opinion polls that deficit is in the range of 20-27% so perhaps there's scope for the Lib Dems to improve.
This is how representative democracy works.
Though I recall he got 2015 spot on, and the reasons for it.
I think people here know who is the one to rely upon for their betting tips.....
- 38% is not 40%
- not all those 38% are pro-Union
- if a deep pool was jam-packed full of salmon and sea-trout, the Scottish Tories would still manage to come home with two sticklebacks and a minnow.
- no party has “their own seats”
Truly odd.
She's 23 it seems. "I learned my politics from grassroots struggles, trade unions and local campaigns and these movements are coming with me to Parliament". I don't see that this is anything other than indoctrination. She may be right, and she may be wrong, but her ideas are very far from her own.
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
I
But then I’m probably thinking of pumping him with drugs so he sings, something Corbyn wouldn’t approve of?
PB Tories went into a combination of meltdown and rapture both condemning him and loudly proclaiming that he had destroyed Labour's election chances.
The next day a YouGov poll came out showing 52% of people agreed with him. That was including Don't Knows so an absolute majority.
So a sniggering school boy line is briefed to media who respond with excitable predictability making it needless for the politician to say the words himself, blaming it on a "stray early draft". Hats off. They are playing the newspapers like turning on a pianola.
SNP 5/6
Con 5/4
Lab 100/1
LD 100/1
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Dead Tree Press vs Online Media
It'll be interesting to see who comes out on top.
He's stumped on Brexit because both Putin and Trump want us to leave.
North Cornwall and North Devon are going to be tight. The comments of the previous LD candidate in North Devon are going to be played back. These ill-considered sentiments - and no Brexit Party - has made it significantly trickier for them in the SW.
LibDem
And he's in a SW London marginal.
Don't be too cocky you tory boys.
SNP 1/10
SLD 4/1
SCon 25/1
SLab 50/1
Result last time:
SNP 40%
SCon 25%
SLD 21%
SLab 12%
SCon clearly going backwards. SLD clearly advancing.
The Bearsden girl guide is in trouble, and the 7/2 SNP price is bloody tempting.
Christine Jardine is head-in-hands useless, but the short 9/4 SNP price is not remotely attractive.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1194569570520051712
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
But in truth obviously all are pretty flexible.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Don’t be too cocky Labour girl.
Jezza or Jizza
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/w3ohbvr6zt/Sky_TheTimes_VI_191112_w.pdf