This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
Remember after the Manchester bombing in 2017 Corbyn said that Britain's actions abroad were in part to blame for terrorist bombings happening here?
PB Tories went into a combination of meltdown and rapture both condemning him and loudly proclaiming that he had destroyed Labour's election chances.
The next day a YouGov poll came out showing 52% of people agreed with him. That was including Don't Knows so an absolute majority.
He was stupid and wrong. The fact the majority were dumb enough to agree doesnt change that.
But it makes it very relevant when assessing if such utterances will have electoral consequences.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
Remember after the Manchester bombing in 2017 Corbyn said that Britain's actions abroad were in part to blame for terrorist bombings happening here?
PB Tories went into a combination of meltdown and rapture both condemning him and loudly proclaiming that he had destroyed Labour's election chances.
The next day a YouGov poll came out showing 52% of people agreed with him. That was including Don't Knows so an absolute majority.
He was stupid and wrong. The fact the majority were dumb enough to agree doesnt change that.
He absolutely wasn't. On a lot of foreign policy Corbyn has been ahead of the game.
There is no doubt whatsoever that our actions abroad directly and indirectly cultivated terrorism. In particular the ridiculous Blair-Bush Gulf War 2.
IS owes its existence in large measure to the West's ill-conceived stupidity on foreign policy.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Only works on increasingly diminishing numbers of SLAB voters over the age of 60, that event was 40 years ago.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
SLab will *never* let go of the ‘79 myth. It is their religious relic. They lost their faith decades ago, but they have to maintain the comforting rituals. Which reminds me, it’s Christmas soon.
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Million dollar question, if, in last days of campaign, you got a different impression from the doorsteps, would you tell us like Herdson did?
I would, but I would restrict any conclusions to Guildford.
My reporting that the LibDems were going to get a shellacking in the SW in 2015 was entirely valid. It was well sourced - and for those who follwed it, nicely profitable.
I
Are you predicting more of a mixed picture this time, high scoring draw?
St. Ives likely to be a LibDem gain.
North Cornwall and North Devon are going to be tight. The comments of the previous LD candidate in North Devon are going to be played back. These ill-considered sentiments - and no Brexit Party - has made it significantly trickier for them in the SW.
Yes, that's my thinking. The SW will be tough for them. They'll do better round my way, Cheltenham and its environs, although not sure they will convert votes into many seats.
London, Home Counties and the South East offer their best chances.
I'm not sure what would count as a good night for them. I think I'd expect them to get up at least 20. If they manage 30 or more, I'd say the girl done well.
Does anyone else remember swingback? Or does that only work if you have an opposition credible enough to be in the lead?
Some of us remember Rod Crosby too.
I wish we still had him now.
He was better than any of us at modelling and predicting elections and got both GE2010 and GE2015 right.
Pah! Who needs people who are actually good at political betting when we can get the party faithfuls telling us why their side winning is a good bet?
Are you not bothered by his holocaust denial?
I never really took much notice. But if a Holocaust denying statistician wants to correctly explain how an election looks it’s probably better than a load of virtue signalling mug punters telling us bets they’re having that aren’t thought through.
Depends how important the betting part of the site is in relation to the rest of it I suppose
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Quite possibly. I wonder at what stage people will be convinced of that again, rather than insisting it cannot be true, even as it happens. If the trend continues I expect the Tories to start panicking in a week, especially if the debate goes badly. If they reassert themselves, it'll take longer for Labour to start to worry.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
Does anyone else remember swingback? Or does that only work if you have an opposition credible enough to be in the lead?
Some of us remember Rod Crosby too.
I wish we still had him now.
He was better than any of us at modelling and predicting elections and got both GE2010 and GE2015 right.
Pah! Who needs people who are actually good at political betting when we can get the party faithfuls telling us why their side winning is a good bet?
Are you not bothered by his holocaust denial?
I never really took much notice. But if a Holocaust denying statistician wants to correctly explain how an election looks it’s probably better than a load of virtue signalling mug punters telling us bets they’re having that aren’t thought through.
Depends how important the betting part of the site is in relation to the rest of it I suppose
So you are saying that anti-semitism is acceptable in some contexts?
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Million dollar question, if, in last days of campaign, you got a different impression from the doorsteps, would you tell us like Herdson did?
I would, but I would restrict any conclusions to Guildford.
My reporting that the LibDems were going to get a shellacking in the SW in 2015 was entirely valid. It was well sourced - and for those who follwed it, nicely profitable.
I
Are you predicting more of a mixed picture this time, high scoring draw?
St. Ives likely to be a LibDem gain.
North Cornwall and North Devon are going to be tight. The comments of the previous LD candidate in North Devon are going to be played back. These ill-considered sentiments - and no Brexit Party - has made it significantly trickier for them in the SW.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
Different kettle of fish altogether. He just needs to stick to his classic Labour lines, and hope Boris's more scattergun approach looks waffly by comparison. Not guaranteed, but it makes sense.
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Fits with the poll th eother day showing Labour support strongly correlated with higher levels of education (which wil ltend to translate into ABC1 jobs, though of course it doesn't always).
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Quite possibly. I wonder at what stage people will be convinced of that again, rather than insisting it cannot be true, even as it happens. If the trend continues I expect the Tories to start panicking in a week, especially if the debate goes badly. If they reassert themselves, it'll take longer for Labour to start to worry.
Indeed. It bemuses how little regard for evidence there is.
And how completely crap the markets have been as a guide to anything in recent years. Even on Brexit election night they were up the creek into the early hours. Great for making money. Useless as an advanced guide of what will actually happen.
Ashworth: "we are not talking about nationalising GPs"
Why not? Tory-lite.
Increasingly GPs are being directly employed by the NHS rather than as sub contracting private partnerships, and out of NHS owned premises. Even partners are directly paid, just not as salary, but rather as piece work.
It is a counter trend to the privatisation of elective surgery, which continues apace.
Interesting. Thanks.
NHS privatization is difficult to quantify, whilst outsourcing none medical services like catering laundry make sense does putting most of the mental care counseling facilities out to tender make any sense. My daughter works for one which was won by a not for profit group but suddenly found they had been evicted from NHS office and consulting facilities and had to go round begging church halls, pubs and fire stations to provide them space. None of this makes the headlines and is also ignored by labour who just want it all back under union control in the state run model. As usual no real debate takes place
For me, discussion about outsourcing misses the point. The merit of successful privatisation is the democratisation of demand, not changing the supplier. The flow of money must be reversed - it should flow from the users of the service to the providers. Then the service will improve.
That is not how NHS privatisation works. Monopoly service contracts are sold off to the highest bidder, with your operation being sold like cattle at auction. It is not a system to serve the customer, unless you consider the CCG to be the customer, and the patient the commodity.
I know it isn't! There are merits of private companies doing things like cleaning. There are merits of these services being performed by NHS employees. But the whole discussion to me misses the point. The power lies with the source of funding. I am all in favour of people not actually having to pay, but at least nominally the funding must follow the patient.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
Different kettle of fish altogether. He just needs to stick to his classic Labour lines, and hope Boris's more scattergun approach looks waffly by comparison. Not guaranteed, but it makes sense.
Everyone will get a excited. But Trump was thrashed in his debates, and still came out of it with a big smile on his face.
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Fits with the poll th eother day showing Labour support strongly correlated with higher levels of education (which wil ltend to translate into ABC1 jobs, though of course it doesn't always).
The Tories still lead with ABC1s, although Labour perform slightly better with ABC1s now than C2DEs the LDs do best percentage wise with ABC1s
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Quite possibly. I wonder at what stage people will be convinced of that again, rather than insisting it cannot be true, even as it happens. If the trend continues I expect the Tories to start panicking in a week, especially if the debate goes badly. If they reassert themselves, it'll take longer for Labour to start to worry.
Indeed. It bemuses how little regard for evidence there is.
And how completely crap the markets have been as a guide to anything in recent years. Even on Brexit election night they were up the creek into the early hours. Great for making money. Useless as an advanced guide of what will actually happen.
If the British public had any regard for evidence, Corbyn would be polling around 10%. PB is but a microcosm of the public, so you can hardly blame us for not caring about evidence either!
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
No evidence of SCon to SLD drift? Here’s the current odds for Ross, Skye & Lochaber:
SNP 1/10 SLD 4/1 SCon 25/1 SLab 50/1
Result last time: SNP 40% SCon 25% SLD 21% SLab 12%
Weirdly, I wonder if the bigger a majority Johnson gets the closer the relationship with the EU he’ll get.
I don’t want to sound all WilliamGlenn (heaven forbid) but not all his candidates are ERG’ers and I suspect he’ll end up wanting to compromise with the EU, and needing a cushion to do so.
On the other hand, if it gets a majority of just 10, he’ll have to genuflect to the Baker’s and Francois’s because the opposition will gang up to vote it down and he’ll need every vote.
Quite. This is why, if Johnson is going to get a majority, I prefer that it is a large one. He might even be able to remove the border in the Irish Sea, fire most of his cabinet and rule as a One Nation Tory for the next five years. He'd enjoy that.
A wafer thin majority is going to lead to cliff edges and uncertainty until we have another election in the fairly near future.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Though as about 30% of SNP voters supported Leave, not all Leave voters are accessible to the Tories. Quite possibly a majority of Leave voters in Scotland are pro double independence.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Sunil on Sunday ELBOW for week ending 10th November:
CON 38.1% (+0.2) LAB 28.2% (+1.9) LD 16.1% (+0.1) BXP 9.1% (-1.3) SNP 3.7% (+0.1) GRN 3.4% (+0.2) PC 0.6% (-0.2) Oth 0.8% (-0.5)
So a sniggering school boy line is briefed to media who respond with excitable predictability making it needless for the politician to say the words himself, blaming it on a "stray early draft". Hats off. They are playing the newspapers like turning on a pianola.
You've become distinctly more tolerqnt of Boris's style these days, Big G.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
Different kettle of fish altogether. He just needs to stick to his classic Labour lines, and hope Boris's more scattergun approach looks waffly by comparison. Not guaranteed, but it makes sense.
Everyone will get a excited. But Trump was thrashed in his debates, and still came out of it with a big smile on his face.
Debates tend to go against incumbents eg in the US Romney and Kerry both won their first debates with Obama and Bush and Brown lost the first 2010 debate and Cameron did not really do that well in the first 2015 debate either. So I expect Corbyn would benefit from low expectations if he is up only against Boris, if Swinson gets in though through the courts she could get a mini Cleggasm
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Only works on increasingly diminishing numbers of SLAB voters over the age of 60, that event was 40 years ago.
It is passed down from father to son. I am not exaggerating. "SNP are responsible ble for Thatcher" is as likely to be uttered by an SLab twenty something as it is from and OAP.
As I say, it is an SLab touchstone. It is fundamental to what SLab is.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Only works on increasingly diminishing numbers of SLAB voters over the age of 60, that event was 40 years ago.
It is passed down from father to son. I am not exaggerating. "SNP are responsible ble for Thatcher" is as likely to be uttered by an SLab twenty something as it is from and OAP.
As I say, it is an SLab touchstone. It is fundamental to what SLab is.
Although not for much longer to judge from the current state of Scottish Labour.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Though as about 30% of SNP voters supported Leave, not all Leave voters are accessible to the Tories. Quite possibly a majority of Leave voters in Scotland are pro double independence.
49% of Scottish Leave voters are voting Tory, 24% SNP, 17% Brexit Party.
52% of Scottish Remain voters are voting SNP, 21% LD and 14% Labour
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Quite possibly. I wonder at what stage people will be convinced of that again, rather than insisting it cannot be true, even as it happens. If the trend continues I expect the Tories to start panicking in a week, especially if the debate goes badly. If they reassert themselves, it'll take longer for Labour to start to worry.
It is possible that statistical jiggery-pokery applied to take account of the partial stand-down of the Brexit Party will muddy the waters for a little while, but if the rise of Labour continues as I expect it to then Tory panic ought to commence in about a fortnight's time. When the Con-Lab gap shrinks consistently across the pollsters to below about 8% there will be a mass outbreak of wetting.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
Different kettle of fish altogether. He just needs to stick to his classic Labour lines, and hope Boris's more scattergun approach looks waffly by comparison. Not guaranteed, but it makes sense.
Everyone will get a excited. But Trump was thrashed in his debates, and still came out of it with a big smile on his face.
Debates tend to go against incumbents eg in the US Romney and Kerry both won their first debates with Obama and Bush and Brown lost the first 2010 debate and Cameron did not really do that well in the first 2015 debate either. So I expect Corbyn would benefit from low expectations if he is up only against Boris, if Swinson gets in though through the courts she could get a mini Cleggasm
Or Swinstorm? 🙂
Thanks for the reply that didn’t include any double entendres. At least there’s two grown ups on here.
So a sniggering school boy line is briefed to media who respond with excitable predictability making it needless for the politician to say the words himself, blaming it on a "stray early draft". Hats off. They are playing the newspapers like turning on a pianola.
You've become distinctly more tolerqnt of Boris's style these days, Big G.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Ah, so you think the LD vote will surge all over Scotland except in the places where it would hurt the SCons.
Very penetrating insight. Convenient for you as well.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Only works on increasingly diminishing numbers of SLAB voters over the age of 60, that event was 40 years ago.
It is passed down from father to son. I am not exaggerating. "SNP are responsible ble for Thatcher" is as likely to be uttered by an SLab twenty something as it is from and OAP.
As I say, it is an SLab touchstone. It is fundamental to what SLab is.
Of course it does still ignore the fact that the Tories were always going to win that election, it was only 5 months early.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Sunil on Sunday ELBOW for week ending 10th November:
CON 38.1% (+0.2) LAB 28.2% (+1.9) LD 16.1% (+0.1) BXP 9.1% (-1.3) SNP 3.7% (+0.1) GRN 3.4% (+0.2) PC 0.6% (-0.2) Oth 0.8% (-0.5)
CON lead 9.9% (-1.4)
Changes vs. Sunday 3rd
Single digits (discounting the On demand decimals) Very controversial single digits, you have to be sure.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Quite possibly. I wonder at what stage people will be convinced of that again, rather than insisting it cannot be true, even as it happens. If the trend continues I expect the Tories to start panicking in a week, especially if the debate goes badly. If they reassert themselves, it'll take longer for Labour to start to worry.
It is possible that statistical jiggery-pokery applied to take account of the partial stand-down of the Brexit Party will muddy the waters for a little while, but if the rise of Labour continues as I expect it to then Tory panic ought to commence in about a fortnight's time. When the Con-Lab gap shrinks consistently across the pollsters to below about 8% there will be a mass outbreak of wetting.
Unless the LD vote collapses in Labour's failure there will be no Labour rise and even a 7% Tory lead would match Cameron's 2015 lead over Labour when he won an overall majority. So if the LD vote has collapsed to Labour but the Tories still have a 7% lead they are still on target for an overall majority as they will hold more seats from the LDs to offset some of the losses to Labour
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
Leaving might make the Lib Dems sob a bit, although they can always keep their fingers crossed that Brexit goes really, really badly and then campaign next time around on a Rejoin platform.
In the case of the SNP, on the other hand, one can advance a plausible argument that Brexit makes independence an easier sell.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Only works on increasingly diminishing numbers of SLAB voters over the age of 60, that event was 40 years ago.
It is passed down from father to son. I am not exaggerating. "SNP are responsible ble for Thatcher" is as likely to be uttered by an SLab twenty something as it is from and OAP.
As I say, it is an SLab touchstone. It is fundamental to what SLab is.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to .
Though as about 30% of SNP voters supported Leave, not all Leave voters are accessible to the Tories. Quite possibly a majority of Leave voters in Scotland are pro double independence.
49% of Scottish Leave voters are voting Tory, 24% SNP, 17% Brexit Party.
52% of Scottish Remain voters are voting SNP, 21% LD and 14% Labour
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Only works on increasingly diminishing numbers of SLAB voters over the age of 60, that event was 40 years ago.
It is passed down from father to son. I am not exaggerating. "SNP are responsible ble for Thatcher" is as likely to be uttered by an SLab twenty something as it is from and OAP.
As I say, it is an SLab touchstone. It is fundamental to what SLab is.
Evening all and ad not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to .
Though as about 30% of SNP voters supported Leave, not all Leave voters are accessible to the Tories. Quite possibly a majority of Leave voters in Scotland are pro double independence.
49% of Scottish Leave voters are voting Tory, 24% SNP, 17% Brexit Party.
52% of Scottish Remain voters are voting SNP, 21% LD and 14% Labour
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Ah, so you think the LD vote will surge all over Scotland except in the places where it would hurt the SCons.
Very penetrating insight. Convenient for you as well.
no I think the SLibs will increase in rural Scotland taking away votes from their Revoke bedmates the SNP however other than Fife NE they wont take any seats. They may help the Tories increase their majorities over the SNP.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
Different kettle of fish altogether. He just needs to stick to his classic Labour lines, and hope Boris's more scattergun approach looks waffly by comparison. Not guaranteed, but it makes sense.
Everyone will get a excited. But Trump was thrashed in his debates, and still came out of it with a big smile on his face.
He may have done badly in the debates but he got the most memorable attack line: “because you’d be in jail.”
Does anyone else remember swingback? Or does that only work if you have an opposition credible enough to be in the lead?
Some of us remember Rod Crosby too.
I wish we still had him now.
He was better than any of us at modelling and predicting elections and got both GE2010 and GE2015 right.
Pah! Who needs people who are actually good at political betting when we can get the party faithfuls telling us why their side winning is a good bet?
Are you not bothered by his holocaust denial?
I never really took much notice. But if a Holocaust denying statistician wants to correctly explain how an election looks it’s probably better than a load of virtue signalling mug punters telling us bets they’re having that aren’t thought through.
Depends how important the betting part of the site is in relation to the rest of it I suppose
So you are saying that anti-semitism is acceptable in some contexts?
Haha! You’re not Cathy Newman & I’m not Jordan Peterson!
What I am saying is “Depends how important the betting part of the site is in relation to the rest of it I suppose”
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
Leaving might make the Lib Dems sob a bit, although they can always keep their fingers crossed that Brexit goes really, really badly and then campaign next time around on a Rejoin platform.
In the case of the SNP, on the other hand, one can advance a plausible argument that Brexit makes independence an easier sell.
SNP are polling 41% with YouGov today, 9% below the 50% they got in 2015 pre the Brexit vote
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
Leaving might make the Lib Dems sob a bit, although they can always keep their fingers crossed that Brexit goes really, really badly and then campaign next time around on a Rejoin platform.
In the case of the SNP, on the other hand, one can advance a plausible argument that Brexit makes independence an easier sell.
Having fought Brexit tooth and nail will be to the LDs credit when buyers remorse has properly set in at the next election.
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
The refusal of the LibDems to stand aside in seats held by Labour Remainers shows that they are not prioritising remaining in the EU.
LibDem votes and seats are their true priorities.
I disagree. Quite a few LD posting here how many votes in Tory marginals will be lost if the seem as close to Labour as Boris does now to BP he’s done a deal with farage. It’s hard on those who break rank, and taken to the torture room, but necessary
So a sniggering school boy line is briefed to media who respond with excitable predictability making it needless for the politician to say the words himself, blaming it on a "stray early draft". Hats off. They are playing the newspapers like turning on a pianola.
You've become distinctly more tolerqnt of Boris's style these days, Big G.
Was Big_G ever that against Boris's style?
Unless I'm mistaken Big_G was always against a No Deal Brexit. Boris isn't pushing for that, he's got his deal.
So fewer than half of Scottish Leave voters are planning to vote Tory...
Brexit Party standing down gives the SCons a huge boost I think. Being a Brexit voter and being in a SCon constituency must be highly correlated I would think.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Sunil on Sunday ELBOW for week ending 10th November:
CON 38.1% (+0.2) LAB 28.2% (+1.9) LD 16.1% (+0.1) BXP 9.1% (-1.3) SNP 3.7% (+0.1) GRN 3.4% (+0.2) PC 0.6% (-0.2) Oth 0.8% (-0.5)
CON lead 9.9% (-1.4)
Changes vs. Sunday 3rd
Labour relying on a pollster changing methodology by some WTF??? element to get the lead under 10%......
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Last time the danger signals for the Tories was when Labour started to pick up their polling among the middle classes. Worth watching out for again. It was initially overshadowed by huge ratings among the working class keeping tory polling high, but come election day flat cap man never did vote for May in the same sort of numbers.
This is going to be on new of this times when there'll be a poll out showing the Majority of people agree with him again won't it?
Most people believe a vile terrorist leader (who had led the beheading and killing of so many in such a vile way) shouldn't be shot while wearing a suicide vest?
I'm happy to lay a bet at evens that no poll shows a majority of people agreeing with that!
Remember after the Manchester bombing in 2017 Corbyn said that Britain's actions abroad were in part to blame for terrorist bombings happening here?
PB Tories went into a combination of meltdown and rapture both condemning him and loudly proclaiming that he had destroyed Labour's election chances.
The next day a YouGov poll came out showing 52% of people agreed with him. That was including Don't Knows so an absolute majority.
He was stupid and wrong. The fact the majority were dumb enough to agree doesnt change that.
He absolutely wasn't. On a lot of foreign policy Corbyn has been ahead of the game.
There is no doubt whatsoever that our actions abroad directly and indirectly cultivated terrorism. In particular the ridiculous Blair-Bush Gulf War 2.
IS owes its existence in large measure to the West's ill-conceived stupidity on foreign policy.
If you keep calling heads, you'll be right 50% of the time. Doesn't make you psychic.
Anyway, it's really hard to claim that a man who thought Nelson Mandela wasn't nearly violent enough is likely to be on the right side on history much, except by chance.
Car crash interview with Corbyn on C4. Wow. Changed his mind about indyref2 twice in one day, and now even his own party don't know what his stance is. Another nail in the Labour coffin.
Wonder if Labour are so confident of those debates now?
Different kettle of fish altogether. He just needs to stick to his classic Labour lines, and hope Boris's more scattergun approach looks waffly by comparison. Not guaranteed, but it makes sense.
Everyone will get a excited. But Trump was thrashed in his debates, and still came out of it with a big smile on his face.
He may have done badly in the debates but he got the most memorable attack line: “because you’d be in jail.”
It is possible that statistical jiggery-pokery applied to take account of the partial stand-down of the Brexit Party will muddy the waters for a little while, but if the rise of Labour continues as I expect it to then Tory panic ought to commence in about a fortnight's time. When the Con-Lab gap shrinks consistently across the pollsters to below about 8% there will be a mass outbreak of wetting.
Unless the LD vote collapses in Labour's failure there will be no Labour rise and even a 7% Tory lead would match Cameron's 2015 lead over Labour when he won an overall majority. So if the LD vote has collapsed to Labour but the Tories still have a 7% lead they are still on target for an overall majority as they will hold more seats from the LDs to offset some of the losses to Labour
Not necessarily. If the gap continues to steadily narrow and is down to 7-8% with two weeks still to go, then the assumption will be that the trend is likely to continue for the remainder of the campaign.
Now, Theresa May came very close to the winning line with just a 2.4% lead in the popular vote in 2017, so it might be that 4% is good enough to win the Tories a very small majority - but they won't be wanting it to be that close. Self-evidently, the narrower the gap the greater the likelihood that they're undone by non-uniform swings. Outsized Brexit Party votes not going straight to the Conservatives in the Northern marginals, a strong SNP performance, Lib Dems outperforming in deep Remainia. You get the general idea.
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
The refusal of the LibDems to stand aside in seats held by Labour Remainers shows that they are not prioritising remaining in the EU.
LibDem votes and seats are their true priorities.
I think it is more to do with reassuring Tory swing voters that the LibDems won't support Labour. Personally I agree with the local LibDem members and disagree with the LibDem leadership on this one.
I see the evidence of how much in love with the past our parties continues to pile up, with Labour banging the 'SNP let in Thatcher' drum. It's not like that was a guarantee of 18 years of Tory rule if Labour had fotten their sh*t together in the intervening years, maybe it's time to let it go.
"SNP let in Thatcher" is absolutely essential to the SLab psyche. It is a touchstone of faith that let's them ignore that it was the Labour supported gerrymandering of the '79 devo referendum that led to the No Confidence vote passing.
If they let it go then they have to face up to uncomfortable truths.
Only works on increasingly diminishing numbers of SLAB voters over the age of 60, that event was 40 years ago.
It is passed down from father to son. I am not exaggerating. "SNP are responsible ble for Thatcher" is as likely to be uttered by an SLab twenty something as it is from and OAP.
As I say, it is an SLab touchstone. It is fundamental to what SLab is.
Evening all and ad not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to .
Though as about 30% of SNP voters supported Leave, not all Leave voters are accessible to the Tories. Quite possibly a majority of Leave voters in Scotland are pro double independence.
49% of Scottish Leave voters are voting Tory, 24% SNP, 17% Brexit Party.
52% of Scottish Remain voters are voting SNP, 21% LD and 14% Labour
No, just this one that has had enough of the Tory tripe that you push out all the time
Now, now. Please do not dissuade him from posting more tripe. It helps to bring the Tories into disrepute.
Telling the truth of what I find on the doorsteps. I can see why that would be seen as disreputable by LibDems.....
Million dollar question, if, in last days of campaign, you got a different impression from the doorsteps, would you tell us like Herdson did?
I would, but I would restrict any conclusions to Guildford.
My reporting that the LibDems were going to get a shellacking in the SW in 2015 was entirely valid. It was well sourced - and for those who follwed it, nicely profitable.
I
Are you predicting more of a mixed picture this time, high scoring draw?
St. Ives likely to be a LibDem gain.
My seat. Interestingly, the MRP-type model on Gina Miller’s tactical voting site has the Tories two points ahead as things stand.
edit: and it assumes 0% Brexit Party, so that’s quite up to date.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Ah, so you think the LD vote will surge all over Scotland except in the places where it would hurt the SCons.
Very penetrating insight. Convenient for you as well.
no I think the SLibs will increase in rural Scotland taking away votes from their Revoke bedmates the SNP however other than Fife NE they wont take any seats. They may help the Tories increase their majorities over the SNP.
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
The refusal of the LibDems to stand aside in seats held by Labour Remainers shows that they are not prioritising remaining in the EU.
LibDem votes and seats are their true priorities.
Remind me how many Lab candidates have stood down to favour other anti-Tory parties...
Er... none they seem to think that we have to give way to a posh public schoolboy who uses obscure language or to a disgraceful idiot who should be looking after his allotment
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Ah, so you think the LD vote will surge all over Scotland except in the places where it would hurt the SCons.
Very penetrating insight. Convenient for you as well.
no I think the SLibs will increase in rural Scotland taking away votes from their Revoke bedmates the SNP however other than Fife NE they wont take any seats. They may help the Tories increase their majorities over the SNP.
If you believe that, you’d better empty your savings account and head down to the bookies: there are some fantastic prices for SCon optimists.
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
In 2017 I backed the SNP and SCons in this seat.
This year I am considering backing SLab if they get long enough.
SLab are worth a fiver if they get to 3/1, fifty quid if they get to 4/1. East Lothian is their strongest constituency in the whole of Scotland in terms of members and keen activists.
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Last time the danger signals for the Tories was when Labour started to pick up their polling among the middle classes. Worth watching out for again. It was initially overshadowed by huge ratings among the working class keeping tory polling high, but come election day flat cap man never did vote for May in the same sort of numbers.
For that Labour need to squeeze the LD vote, unlikely given their dithering over Brexit.
Boris appeals to working class Leave voters far more than May and will not come after their houses with a new tax as she did
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
It is possible that statistical jiggery-pokery applied to take account of the partial stand-down of the Brexit Party will muddy the waters for a little while, but if the rise of Labour continues as I expect it to then Tory panic ought to commence in about a fortnight's time. When the Con-Lab gap shrinks consistently across the pollsters to below about 8% there will be a mass outbreak of wetting.
Unless the LD vote collapses in Labour's failure there will be no Labour rise and even a 7% Tory lead would match Cameron's 2015 lead over Labour when he won an overall majority. So if the LD vote has collapsed to Labour but the Tories still have a 7% lead they are still on target for an overall majority as they will hold more seats from the LDs to offset some of the losses to Labour
Not necessarily. If the gap continues to steadily narrow and is down to 7-8% with two weeks still to go, then the assumption will be that the trend is likely to continue for the remainder of the campaign.
Now, Theresa May came very close to the winning line with just a 2.4% lead in the popular vote in 2017, so it might be that 4% is good enough to win the Tories a very small majority - but they won't be wanting it to be that close. Self-evidently, the narrower the gap the greater the likelihood that they're undone by non-uniform swings. Outsized Brexit Party votes not going straight to the Conservatives in the Northern marginals, a strong SNP performance, Lib Dems outperforming in deep Remainia. You get the general idea.
So you're saying a lot more things have to go wrong than to go right for the Cons for them not to get their majority?
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Though as about 30% of SNP voters supported Leave, not all Leave voters are accessible to the Tories. Quite possibly a majority of Leave voters in Scotland are pro double independence.
49% of Scottish Leave voters are voting Tory, 24% SNP, 17% Brexit Party.
52% of Scottish Remain voters are voting SNP, 21% LD and 14% Labour
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
In 2017 I backed the SNP and SCons in this seat.
This year I am considering backing SLab if they get long enough.
It's a 114% book which suggests the fair price for SLAB here is 3-1. I'll lay SLab at 1-3 here for £60 liability (I think they'll lose but I'm not ultra-confident) if you want to back at 3-1 to win £60 with a stake of £20 ?
It is possible that statistical jiggery-pokery applied to take account of the partial stand-down of the Brexit Party will muddy the waters for a little while, but if the rise of Labour continues as I expect it to then Tory panic ought to commence in about a fortnight's time. When the Con-Lab gap shrinks consistently across the pollsters to below about 8% there will be a mass outbreak of wetting.
Unless the LD vote collapses in Labour's failure there will be no Labour rise and even a 7% Tory lead would match Cameron's 2015 lead over Labour when he won an overall majority. So if the LD vote has collapsed to Labour but the Tories still have a 7% lead they are still on target for an overall majority as they will hold more seats from the LDs to offset some of the losses to Labour
Not necessarily. If the gap continues to steadily narrow and is down to 7-8% with two weeks still to go, then the assumption will be that the trend is likely to continue for the remainder of the campaign.
Now, Theresa May came very close to the winning line with just a 2.4% lead in the popular vote in 2017, so it might be that 4% is good enough to win the Tories a very small majority - but they won't be wanting it to be that close. Self-evidently, the narrower the gap the greater the likelihood that they're undone by non-uniform swings. Outsized Brexit Party votes not going straight to the Conservatives in the Northern marginals, a strong SNP performance, Lib Dems outperforming in deep Remainia. You get the general idea.
The assumption can say what it wants but 7% lead is still enough for a Tory majority and that assumes Labour gets it down that low in the first place which is unlikely given Corbyn's still abysmal ratings.
Indeed it may be the BXP picking up 2017 Labour voters which enables the Tories to pick up enough Northern marginals for a clear majority. The SNP is still polling below the levels it got in 2015 when Cameron still managed to get a majority. Bar a few seats in London the LDs are unlikely to pick up many other Tory seats except a handful like Cheltenham, St Albans and St Ives
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
Going from 4th to 3rd or 4th to 2nd doesn't win any prizes. They can be putting on lots of support in Central Scotland former Labour seats. Most SCon voters are Brexit supporters. Remember 1 million Scots voted for Brexit. Most of them were outside Central Scotland.
Though as about 30% of SNP voters supported Leave, not all Leave voters are accessible to the Tories. Quite possibly a majority of Leave voters in Scotland are pro double independence.
49% of Scottish Leave voters are voting Tory, 24% SNP, 17% Brexit Party.
52% of Scottish Remain voters are voting SNP, 21% LD and 14% Labour
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
Edinburgh West?
It scores very well on my Four Factors model. UNS: check. Remainia: check. Local strength: check. Other votes to squeeze: check.
Why would it not be fairly comfortable hold for the Yellow?
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
As I asked David.
The Lib Dem vote has doubled from 2017, why does that not translate into good things for the Lib Dems? They took seats on a falling share of the vote last time out.
They also lost seats last time around. And even when the LDs were gaining seats nationally, they still would lose them from time-to-time.
That being said, I also share your scepticism that the LDs will lose any seats in Scotland in 2019. Simply, I think there's still some more Unionist tactical voting to come through, and in most of the LD seats, you just need a high 30s share to hold onto a seat.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
In an election not exactly filled with racing certainties, one of the exceptions is the destruction of Scottish Labour. Everything bar Edinburgh South is going.
It's just a shame that there's no sign of a rout South of the Tweed as well...
This is the story of the campaign so far. The slow but inevitable rise of the Labour vote share. The only thing that surprises me is that they're not doing better than this already, but there's a whole month still to go.
This isn't going to be a carbon copy of 2017, but it'll be very much like it.
Poor Jeremy! Just one more heave and he could have got rid of Ian Murray and then he'd have had no Labour MPs in Scotland.
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Unless I'm mistaken Big_G was always against a No Deal Brexit. Boris isn't pushing for that, he's got his deal.
All Boris has a Withdrawal Agreement which has still to pass the Commons.
The next stage is the key - the future economic and political relationship. We are to believe a "big free trade deal" is possible before 31/12/20.
I don't - I think we will leave to WTO rules on 31/12/20 and Johnson will blame the EU for not agreeing a free trade deal.
Those who vote for Johnson on 12/12 thinking he will deliver on his free trade promise are falling into the old trap of believing what he tells you - with Johnson that's the last thing you should do.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
Edinburgh West?
It scores very well on my Four Factors model. UNS: check. Remainia: check. Local strength: check. Other votes to squeeze: check.
Why would it not be fairly comfortable hold for the Yellow?
Because Jardine is one of the biggest dunderheids in Scottish politics. And my goodness, she has plenty of competition.
Incidentally, I cannot understand your “UNS: check”. We haven’t had any Scottish polls in order to judge SLD to SNP swing or vice versa, but the sub-samples point to zero movement either way. “Remania” is also a neutral, as both parties are Remain (and, being the government, the SNP gets all the profile). “Local strength“? Also applies to both. “Other votes to squeeze”: also applies to both.
The Tories firewall is the BP standing down in those 317 seats . That means they can direct more resources to other seats .
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Labour have really no path to a majority , the absolute best they can really do is to be the biggest party but even that would need a perfect storm to occur .
We’ve had some surprise results over the last few years but it’s very hard to see another one . I of course would love to be proved wrong .
If you’re an anti Tory then two things would have to happen to begin with . Much bigger turnout in Remainers and a big jump in younger people voting .
Fury as Jeremy Corbyn says ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi should have been ARRESTED and questions the US military's account of how he blew up himself and his two children
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
So you're saying a lot more things have to go wrong than to go right for the Cons for them not to get their majority?
It all depends on exactly how tight this election turns out to be. My instinct - and it is no more than that - is that Labour won't poll as well as they did last time and the Lab-Con vote share gap will be larger, though not necessarily by that much. Therefore, whether or not there'll be a small Tory majority or the failure to obtain one by a whisker looks like a bit of a coin toss.
If pushed further I'd say that I don't expect the Lib Dems to get very far in this election - yes, they are polling substantially better than they did in the last two elections, but by the same token they're some distance behind the shares they used to win up until 2010, there are hardly any ultra-marginals available to them, and in terms of the straight Con-LD battles there are only a dozen Tory seats available on swings of less than 10% (with Eastbourne and North Norfolk both at risk of going in the opposite direction.) On the other hand, there are about 20 Labour seats available to the Tories on a swing of 2% or less, and many of those are in Leave-leaning areas. Therefore, unless this election really is as tight as the last one, the Conservatives ought to be able to pick off enough Labour targets to more than compensate for any losses to the Lib Dems.
In the end, it's quite possible that the difference between Con maj 5 and Con short by 5 could be down to the performance of the Scottish Tories.
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
Edinburgh West?
It scores very well on my Four Factors model. UNS: check. Remainia: check. Local strength: check. Other votes to squeeze: check.
Why would it not be fairly comfortable hold for the Yellow?
Edinburgh West is solid as a rock for the Lib Dems. If they had put up 3 Councillors for the Edinburgh Almond ward they would have got them. The notion they will lose here is close to silly.
I don't understand why it is longer than East Dunbartonshire.
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
Edinburgh West?
It scores very well on my Four Factors model. UNS: check. Remainia: check. Local strength: check. Other votes to squeeze: check.
Why would it not be fairly comfortable hold for the Yellow?
Because Jardine is one of the biggest dunderheids in Scottish politics. And my goodness, she has plenty of competition.
Incidentally, I cannot understand your “UNS: check”. We haven’t had any Scottish polls in order to judge SLD to SNP swing or vice versa, but the sub-samples point to zero movement either way. “Remania” is also a neutral, as both parties are Remain (and, being the government, the SNP gets all the profile). “Local strength“? Also applies to both. “Other votes to squeeze”: also applies to both.
The Lib Dems massively out strength the SNP in Edinburgh West.
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
It could be as simple as a load of unis put registrations.for their students all on the same day. These days when students reigster for the year, they basically have to opt out of the uni trying to register to vote on their behalf.
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
The refusal of the LibDems to stand aside in seats held by Labour Remainers shows that they are not prioritising remaining in the EU.
LibDem votes and seats are their true priorities.
Remind me how many Lab candidates have stood down to favour other anti-Tory parties...
Er... none they seem to think that we have to give way to a posh public schoolboy who uses obscure language or to a disgraceful idiot who should be looking after his allotment
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
I have a little on each of those, but only the price of a pint.
Fury as Jeremy Corbyn says ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi should have been ARRESTED and questions the US military's account of how he blew up himself and his two children
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
The refusal of the LibDems to stand aside in seats held by Labour Remainers shows that they are not prioritising remaining in the EU.
LibDem votes and seats are their true priorities.
Remind me how many Lab candidates have stood down to favour other anti-Tory parties...
Er... none they seem to think that we have to give way to a posh public schoolboy who uses obscure language or to a disgraceful idiot who should be looking after his allotment
Never knew Johnson had an allotment.
He walks his dog there and grows oven ready Marmite, and chips.
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
I have a little on each of those, but only the price of a pint.
Wise. I’m expecting those prices to come in as the Scottish polls start to dribble in and the lights go up.
Unless Swinson and/or Rennie blow up. Which is entirely feasible.
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
It could be as simple as a load of unis put registrations.for their students all on the same day. These days when students reigster for the year, they basically have to opt out of the uni trying to register to vote on their behalf.
So it in fact bears very little relevance to voting intent?
Comments
There is no doubt whatsoever that our actions abroad directly and indirectly cultivated terrorism. In particular the ridiculous Blair-Bush Gulf War 2.
IS owes its existence in large measure to the West's ill-conceived stupidity on foreign policy.
London, Home Counties and the South East offer their best chances.
I'm not sure what would count as a good night for them. I think I'd expect them to get up at least 20. If they manage 30 or more, I'd say the girl done well.
Depends how important the betting part of the site is in relation to the rest of it I suppose
Is the Conservative in ST Ives a creationist?
And how completely crap the markets have been as a guide to anything in recent years. Even on Brexit election night they were up the creek into the early hours. Great for making money. Useless as an advanced guide of what will actually happen.
A wafer thin majority is going to lead to cliff edges and uncertainty until we have another election in the fairly near future.
CON 38.1% (+0.2)
LAB 28.2% (+1.9)
LD 16.1% (+0.1)
BXP 9.1% (-1.3)
SNP 3.7% (+0.1)
GRN 3.4% (+0.2)
PC 0.6% (-0.2)
Oth 0.8% (-0.5)
CON lead 9.9% (-1.4)
Changes vs. Sunday 3rd
As I say, it is an SLab touchstone. It is fundamental to what SLab is.
52% of Scottish Remain voters are voting SNP, 21% LD and 14% Labour
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/9qz822l6h7/ScotlandResults_191106_VI_W.pdf
In the greater scheme of things, it doesn't matter a toss.
Thanks for the reply that didn’t include any double entendres. At least there’s two grown ups on here.
Very penetrating insight. Convenient for you as well.
PC 1/9
Lab 8/1
Con 20/1
LD 33/1
Bxp 200/1
In the case of the SNP, on the other hand, one can advance a plausible argument that Brexit makes independence an easier sell.
LibDem votes and seats are their true priorities.
What I am saying is “Depends how important the betting part of the site is in relation to the rest of it I suppose”
Unless I'm mistaken Big_G was always against a No Deal Brexit. Boris isn't pushing for that, he's got his deal.
Anyway, it's really hard to claim that a man who thought Nelson Mandela wasn't nearly violent enough is likely to be on the right side on history much, except by chance.
SNP 10/11
SCon 9/4
SLab 5/2
SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
Now, Theresa May came very close to the winning line with just a 2.4% lead in the popular vote in 2017, so it might be that 4% is good enough to win the Tories a very small majority - but they won't be wanting it to be that close. Self-evidently, the narrower the gap the greater the likelihood that they're undone by non-uniform swings. Outsized Brexit Party votes not going straight to the Conservatives in the Northern marginals, a strong SNP performance, Lib Dems outperforming in deep Remainia. You get the general idea.
* OK someone's dog decided to switch from SNP to Labour
SNP voters were massively over represented in the raw sample. But Yes voters were under represented.
Wonder what combination of factors made that happen.
edit: and it assumes 0% Brexit Party, so that’s quite up to date.
This year I am considering backing SLab if they get long enough.
This is the power of positive thinking.
Boris appeals to working class Leave voters far more than May and will not come after their houses with a new tax as she did
It's a 114% book which suggests the fair price for SLAB here is 3-1. I'll lay SLab at 1-3 here for £60 liability (I think they'll lose but I'm not ultra-confident) if you want to back at 3-1 to win £60 with a stake of £20 ?Edit - That's a mess
Do you want £20 @ 3-1 on Scottish Labour
Indeed it may be the BXP picking up 2017 Labour voters which enables the Tories to pick up enough Northern marginals for a clear majority. The SNP is still polling below the levels it got in 2015 when Cameron still managed to get a majority. Bar a few seats in London the LDs are unlikely to pick up many other Tory seats except a handful like Cheltenham, St Albans and St Ives
It scores very well on my Four Factors model. UNS: check. Remainia: check. Local strength: check. Other votes to squeeze: check.
Why would it not be fairly comfortable hold for the Yellow?
That being said, I also share your scepticism that the LDs will lose any seats in Scotland in 2019. Simply, I think there's still some more Unionist tactical voting to come through, and in most of the LD seats, you just need a high 30s share to hold onto a seat.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
The next stage is the key - the future economic and political relationship. We are to believe a "big free trade deal" is possible before 31/12/20.
I don't - I think we will leave to WTO rules on 31/12/20 and Johnson will blame the EU for not agreeing a free trade deal.
Those who vote for Johnson on 12/12 thinking he will deliver on his free trade promise are falling into the old trap of believing what he tells you - with Johnson that's the last thing you should do.
Incidentally, I cannot understand your “UNS: check”. We haven’t had any Scottish polls in order to judge SLD to SNP swing or vice versa, but the sub-samples point to zero movement either way. “Remania” is also a neutral, as both parties are Remain (and, being the government, the SNP gets all the profile). “Local strength“? Also applies to both. “Other votes to squeeze”: also applies to both.
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Labour have really no path to a majority , the absolute best they can really do is to be the biggest party but even that would need a perfect storm to occur .
We’ve had some surprise results over the last few years but it’s very hard to see another one . I of course would love to be proved wrong .
If you’re an anti Tory then two things would have to happen to begin with . Much bigger turnout in Remainers and a big jump in younger people voting .
Fury as Jeremy Corbyn says ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi should have been ARRESTED and questions the US military's account of how he blew up himself and his two children
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7680707/Jeremy-Corbyn-heckled-labelled-terrorist-sympathiser-visit-Glasgow.html
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
If pushed further I'd say that I don't expect the Lib Dems to get very far in this election - yes, they are polling substantially better than they did in the last two elections, but by the same token they're some distance behind the shares they used to win up until 2010, there are hardly any ultra-marginals available to them, and in terms of the straight Con-LD battles there are only a dozen Tory seats available on swings of less than 10% (with Eastbourne and North Norfolk both at risk of going in the opposite direction.) On the other hand, there are about 20 Labour seats available to the Tories on a swing of 2% or less, and many of those are in Leave-leaning areas. Therefore, unless this election really is as tight as the last one, the Conservatives ought to be able to pick off enough Labour targets to more than compensate for any losses to the Lib Dems.
In the end, it's quite possible that the difference between Con maj 5 and Con short by 5 could be down to the performance of the Scottish Tories.
I don't understand why it is longer than East Dunbartonshire.
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
Can anyone suggest a candidate who has shown they have this quality ?
Take a wee keek at:
- Gordon 12/1
- Argyll & Bute 6/1
- Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
Go figure.....
Unless Swinson and/or Rennie blow up. Which is entirely feasible.