The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
'Wee keek'! Whatever Scottish independence has to offer I'd suggest that you can't be trusted to have your own language
The Tories firewall is the BP standing down in those 317 seats . That means they can direct more resources to other seats .
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Politics doesn't work like this - seriously.
The Conservatives will still work in the 317 seats - in fact, that's where most of their effort will be because that's where most of their activists are I suspect.
Stephen Timms and a dozen Labour activists were in East Ham High Street today - Timms has a wafer thin 39,883 majority so while I understand why he was out talking to his constituents (they aren't technically at the moment) what were the other activists doing? Why weren't they out working to defend Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North which the Conservatives have targeted or going up to Chingford and Woodford Green which, if Labour were doing better, would be a plausible objective?
I know the local East Ham Conservatives went up to Chingford and Woodford Green to support IDS but again I'm thinking - why? They are miles ahead and should be looking to gain Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North rather than defending seats they won't lose.
As a young Liberal I was told "if you can't win where you are, find where you can win and go there".
Fury as Jeremy Corbyn says ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi should have been ARRESTED and questions the US military's account of how he blew up himself and his two children
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
I have a little on each of those, but only the price of a pint.
Wise. I’m expecting those prices to come in as the Scottish polls start to dribble in and the lights go up.
Unless Swinson and/or Rennie blow up. Which is entirely feasible.
I reckon that Unionist Scots like to see their party leaders on a national stage, as they did with Brown, Kennedy, Steel. Even to an extent Davidson, who is probably the best known Unionist Scottish politician South of the Border.
The Tories firewall is the BP standing down in those 317 seats . That means they can direct more resources to other seats .
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Labour have really no path to a majority , the absolute best they can really do is to be the biggest party but even that would need a perfect storm to occur .
We’ve had some surprise results over the last few years but it’s very hard to see another one . I of course would love to be proved wrong .
If you’re an anti Tory then two things would have to happen to begin with . Much bigger turnout in Remainers and a big jump in younger people voting .
It presupposes that The Tories have improved their approach. The 2017 General Election study implied that they weren't well prepared in Lab/Con marginals, and poor knowledge and data about voters in too many constituencies hampered their progress
I think the EU and the UK will agree an interim free trade agreement by year end, that will contain relatively little regulatory divergence. The real, final free trade agreement will then end up being negotiated ad nauseum for the next decade or so, and may be superseded by events.
Only people who inhabit these types of forums are likely to take much notice . We forget sometimes most of the public just aren’t interested . The debates and the key parts of the manifestos might get more awareness but really members of this forum are really not a great representation of the general public .
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Fits with the poll th eother day showing Labour support strongly correlated with higher levels of education (which wil ltend to translate into ABC1 jobs, though of course it doesn't always).
The Tories still lead with ABC1s, although Labour perform slightly better with ABC1s now than C2DEs the LDs do best percentage wise with ABC1s
Pensioners disproportionately go down as c2de, even if they are fairly flush, which explains a lot of the blue-collar blue support
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
Do your own research.
But that's what I have PB for, so I don't need to!
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
It could be as simple as a load of unis put registrations.for their students all on the same day. These days when students reigster for the year, they basically have to opt out of the uni trying to register to vote on their behalf.
I saw my first TV ad of this election telling people to register to vote yesterday. Maybe that's the reason?
Evening all and an interesting thread so far. Jeremy Corbyn had a howler in Scotland today. STV was reporting his meetings were poorly attended and showed one man in the street calling him a terrorist sympathiser. In interviews he kept trying to refine his position on IndyRef2 and the best he could offer was not in the early years of a Labour government. Labour in Scotland is heading for a meltdown on 12th December unless there is a dramatic turn of events.
I often agree with Stuart Dickson but thus far there is no evidence of SCon to SLib drift. Indeed the SLibs I am speaking to are worried not hyper confident. Orkney is safe and I still think cousin Jamie will hold here but maybe the Bearsden girl guide and Christine Jardine should not be quite so bullish about their chances.
Edinburgh West?
It scores very well on my Four Factors model. UNS: check. Remainia: check. Local strength: check. Other votes to squeeze: check.
Why would it not be fairly comfortable hold for the Yellow?
Because Jardine is one of the biggest dunderheids in Scottish politics. And my goodness, she has plenty of competition.
Incidentally, I cannot understand your “UNS: check”. We haven’t had any Scottish polls in order to judge SLD to SNP swing or vice versa, but the sub-samples point to zero movement either way. “Remania” is also a neutral, as both parties are Remain (and, being the government, the SNP gets all the profile). “Local strength“? Also applies to both. “Other votes to squeeze”: also applies to both.
Your points are good ones, but let me address them anyway
Re UNS. Worth remembering the LDs start six points ahead of the SNP. And they're up (we can reasonably assume) in absolute vote share in Scotland. The SNP therefore would need to add maybe ten percentage points to their share to win the seat. While the SNP's vote will almost certainly increase in Scotland, I don't see a ten point jump.
Remainia. Sure.
Local strength. The LDs made progress in Edinburgh West in the last local elections. And that was at a time they were doing less well.
Other votes to squeeze: there are more unionist votes to squeeze in Edinburgh West than pro-independence ones.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
30% guaranteed. Can they get higher.
I expect TBP will be squeezed further with both main parties benefitting
I am intrigued to hear Farage is toying with backing the conservatives depending on the manifesto. Is this his final act- to instruct all TBP supporters to vote for Boris
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Fits with the poll th eother day showing Labour support strongly correlated with higher levels of education (which wil ltend to translate into ABC1 jobs, though of course it doesn't always).
The Tories still lead with ABC1s, although Labour perform slightly better with ABC1s now than C2DEs the LDs do best percentage wise with ABC1s
Pensioners disproportionately go down as c2de, even if they are fairly flush, which explains a lot of the blue-collar blue support
I thought pensioners were classified according to their final occupation?
Had my first election leaflet today - Labour first out of the blocks in a safe Con seat where, admittedly, they did come second last time, although locally it's all about the LDs as the non Tory vote.
Apparently only Labour have fully costed policies that address society's injustices fairly, which is a clever phrase - others might have costed policies, they might even address society's injustices, but not fairly. Plus I'm suspicious of something being costed rather than funded, but the Tories won't be able to throw stones in that regard.
And rail, mail and water into public hands (for some reason I feel like somebody pitched 'rail, mail and pail', but realised the latter is not obvious enough).
Referendum with 'leave on a defined deal' and 'remain' on the ballot. Interesting phrasing again. Not guaranteed to put a Labour deal on the ballot, just a defined deal?
Helpfully, it also clarified that their slogan is not just an empty sound bite, they really do mean 'for the many not the few'. Good thing they said that, or I'd think they were joshing.
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
Looking at the crossbreaks it's absurd (not this poll just in general).
Labour lead amongst public sector workers. Fair enough you say. But they also lead amongst private sector workers as well.
Labour lead amongst people who work.
That's just mind boggling that they can lead amongst the working population and be behind overall by 10 points.
Why? Brexit popularity increases with age, is it surprising that the working age want to continue working?
It's absurd that Labour can lead amongst people who work yet PB Tories claim... Well pretty much anything about the Tories standing for aspiration or some such nonsense.
Looking at the crossbreaks it's absurd (not this poll just in general).
Labour lead amongst public sector workers. Fair enough you say. But they also lead amongst private sector workers as well.
Labour lead amongst people who work.
That's just mind boggling that they can lead amongst the working population and be behind overall by 10 points.
The pensioner vote is their big problem , the Tories hold a huge lead in that group . Whatever Labour are going to put in their manifesto they need a massive bribe to that group . It’s more important than ever for younger people to tell grannie and grandpa you screwed me on Brexit I’ll be damned if you’re now going to subject me to five years of Bozo and the Tories , they need to get out and vote .
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
Strategically a 323+ seats Tory win is better for both the Lib Dems and SNP compared to propping up a very weak minority Labour Gov't.
Not if you want to stay in the EU.
The refusal of the LibDems to stand aside in seats held by Labour Remainers shows that they are not prioritising remaining in the EU.
LibDem votes and seats are their true priorities.
Remind me how many Lab candidates have stood down to favour other anti-Tory parties...
Er... none they seem to think that we have to give way to a posh public schoolboy who uses obscure language or to a disgraceful idiot who should be looking after his allotment
Fat Narcissus versus ....Onan the septuagenarian vegetarian egalitarian/totalitarian.
Only people who inhabit these types of forums are likely to take much notice . We forget sometimes most of the public just aren’t interested . The debates and the key parts of the manifestos might get more awareness but really members of this forum are really not a great representation of the general public .
Always worth remembering. Same applies more broadly to social media: if Twitter were representative of public opinion then we'd be some years into the dictatorship of the proletariat by now, and all the Tories, financiers, entrepreneurs and anybody with more than £10 in the bank would've been shot.
Quite apart from the 30% or more of the entire electorate that doesn't vote to begin with, at least half of the fraction that do are habit voters, and most of them will either have paid no attention to anything that happens during the campaign, or will have interpreted whatever they have heard in a manner appropriate to reinforcing their own biases.
Swing voters are a minority group and those who pay real attention to these controversies are a subset within that.
Night all, as I am suffering from shingles I am off to bed. Just a defence of Stuart Dickson, a "wee keek" is a very popular Scottish expression. We like to have a wee keek at a lot of things before making up our minds. As for Edinburgh West, maybe Christine Jardine will hold on but sorry she is about as thick as a load of dough before put in the oven. We can never forget how she managed to turn Malcolm Bruce's almost 7000 majority in 2010 in Gordon into Alex Salmonds more than 8000 majority over her in 2015. She was after all a "popular" local councillor beforehand!
Only people who inhabit these types of forums are likely to take much notice . We forget sometimes most of the public just aren’t interested . The debates and the key parts of the manifestos might get more awareness but really members of this forum are really not a great representation of the general public .
Well - I would usually agree.
Except from the amount of jokes I am getting sent which poke fun at the absurdity that is Labour, far more than aimed at other parties combined.
Plus seeing people talking about it in the breakout area at work.
The video of Corbyn heading to the hills after being questioned on his interesting friends will I think be noticed.
I thought he was the brave campaigner who left others to "run away"
New YouGov tables out and the Tories are doing better with working class C2DEs on 47% than they are nationally on 42% (they are on 38% with middle class ABC1s and still lead with middle class voters but less strongly).
Labour are now doing better with middle class ABC1s on 29% to the 27% they are on with C2DEs. The LDs are far higher with middle class ABC1s on 19% to the 9% they are on with working class voters.
Tories lead 54% to 20% in the South, 42% to 29% in the Midlands and are just 1% behind Labour in the North, 37% to 38%.
Labour lead in London still 40% to 28% for the Tories and in Scotland the SNP are on 41%, the Tories on 25% and Labour and the LDs tied on 14%.
Fits with the poll th eother day showing Labour support strongly correlated with higher levels of education (which wil ltend to translate into ABC1 jobs, though of course it doesn't always).
The Tories still lead with ABC1s, although Labour perform slightly better with ABC1s now than C2DEs the LDs do best percentage wise with ABC1s
Pensioners disproportionately go down as c2de, even if they are fairly flush, which explains a lot of the blue-collar blue support
I thought pensioners were classified according to their final occupation?
I thought we were being classified as being unentitled to vote.
Oh btw, after a couple of days of respite, i got my letterbox jammed with more lib dem propaganda. Nothing from anybody else yet.
Driving round North Dorset in the last couple of days - seen 7 LibDem David Chadwick signs; no signs for any other party at all. This in one of the safest Tory seats.
Oh btw, after a couple of days of respite, i got my letterbox jammed with more lib dem propaganda. Nothing from anybody else yet.
Driving round North Dorset in the last couple of days - seen 7 LibDem David Chadwick signs; no signs for any other party at all. This in one of the safest Tory seats.
You've got to admire the effort.
I would appreciate if all political parties timed their deliveries to coincidence with recycling bin collection day...
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
If this is a good poll for Labour, then let me quote Pyrrhus of Epirus after winning the battle of Asculum: "If we win one more victory like this, we shall be utterly ruined!"
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
I'd tend to agree, but that seems like a very definitive statement when churn and inconsistent levels of official or unofficial alliances and tactical voting, and reactions to those alliances prompting counter tactical voting, make certainty the share will not only be more inefficient but 'much more inefficient' a bold prediction.
Oh btw, after a couple of days of respite, i got my letterbox jammed with more lib dem propaganda. Nothing from anybody else yet.
Driving round North Dorset in the last couple of days - seen 7 LibDem David Chadwick signs; no signs for any other party at all. This in one of the safest Tory seats.
You've got to admire the effort.
I would appreciate if all political parties timed their deliveries to coincidence with recycling bin collection day...
Being an entirely serious suggestion, the serious answer will be of course that different parts of even the same seat will have collections on different days so hard to organise that. We shall have to suck it up.
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
The more you see of Johnson's smirk the more you want to smack him in the face. Making sure you can vote is the next best thing?
The Tories firewall is the BP standing down in those 317 seats . That means they can direct more resources to other seats .
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Politics doesn't work like this - seriously.
The Conservatives will still work in the 317 seats - in fact, that's where most of their effort will be because that's where most of their activists are I suspect.
Stephen Timms and a dozen Labour activists were in East Ham High Street today - Timms has a wafer thin 39,883 majority so while I understand why he was out talking to his constituents (they aren't technically at the moment) what were the other activists doing? Why weren't they out working to defend Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North which the Conservatives have targeted or going up to Chingford and Woodford Green which, if Labour were doing better, would be a plausible objective?
I know the local East Ham Conservatives went up to Chingford and Woodford Green to support IDS but again I'm thinking - why? They are miles ahead and should be looking to gain Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North rather than defending seats they won't lose.
As a young Liberal I was told "if you can't win where you are, find where you can win and go there".
Wes Streeting has a majority of over 9,000 in Ilford North. Don't think the Tories will be winning here!
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
The more you see of Johnson's smirk the more you want to smack him in the face. Making sure you can vote is the next best thing?
Hundreds of thousands of people want to assault the PM?
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
If this is a good poll for Labour, then let me quote Pyrrhus of Epirus after winning the battle of Asculum: "If we win one more victory like this, we shall be utterly ruined!"
If these were the vote shares to be recorded on election day itself then Labour would obviously be well beaten. But election day is four weeks away.
Since the dissolution, Labour has strengthened in the polls whilst its opponents have trod water or gone backwards. Another month of that and we could easily be back into Hung Parliament territory again.
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
The Last Jedi was the second most disappointing thing about 2017. Discuss.
The Last Straw more like
At least in 2017 there was some time to recover between the election disaster and the Star Wars disaster. If they do that to me again this year, I swear...
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
The Last Jedi was the second most disappointing thing about 2017. Discuss.
The Last Straw more like
At least in 2017 there was some time to recover between the election disaster and the Star Wars disaster. If they do that to me again this year, I swear...
"Your coming together.... will be your undoing!" - Palpatine doesn't approve of the Rebel Alliance
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
If this is a good poll for Labour, then let me quote Pyrrhus of Epirus after winning the battle of Asculum: "If we win one more victory like this, we shall be utterly ruined!"
For labour to close much more they need conservative to labour switches and I doubt one conservative has or will move over to labour
The squeeze on TBP may actually break more for the conservatives, so where are labours votes coming from ?
Oh btw, after a couple of days of respite, i got my letterbox jammed with more lib dem propaganda. Nothing from anybody else yet.
Driving round North Dorset in the last couple of days - seen 7 LibDem David Chadwick signs; no signs for any other party at all. This in one of the safest Tory seats.
You've got to admire the effort.
I would appreciate if all political parties timed their deliveries to coincidence with recycling bin collection day...
Being an entirely serious suggestion, the serious answer will be of course that different parts of even the same seat will have collections on different days so hard to organise that. We shall have to suck it up.
The leaflets could always be kept in a neat pile for use as emergency bog roll? Just in case we are all wrong and the Revolutionary Socialist Friends of Venezuela win outright next month.
The Tories firewall is the BP standing down in those 317 seats . That means they can direct more resources to other seats .
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Politics doesn't work like this - seriously.
The Conservatives will still work in the 317 seats - in fact, that's where most of their effort will be because that's where most of their activists are I suspect.
Stephen Timms and a dozen Labour activists were in East Ham High Street today - Timms has a wafer thin 39,883 majority so while I understand why he was out talking to his constituents (they aren't technically at the moment) what were the other activists doing? Why weren't they out working to defend Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North which the Conservatives have targeted or going up to Chingford and Woodford Green which, if Labour were doing better, would be a plausible objective?
I know the local East Ham Conservatives went up to Chingford and Woodford Green to support IDS but again I'm thinking - why? They are miles ahead and should be looking to gain Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North rather than defending seats they won't lose.
As a young Liberal I was told "if you can't win where you are, find where you can win and go there".
Wes Streeting has a majority of over 9,000 in Ilford North. Don't think the Tories will be winning here!
Indeed, plus Momentum have been piling in activists to Chingford where I have also been. The only realistic Tory gains on current polls in London are Kensington, Battersea, Enfield Southgate and Croydon South, otherwise it is about learning from 2017 and holding what we have got south of Watford and making gains in the North, Wales and the Midlands to get the majority.
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
The more you see of Johnson's smirk the more you want to smack him in the face. Making sure you can vote is the next best thing?
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
If this is a good poll for Labour, then let me quote Pyrrhus of Epirus after winning the battle of Asculum: "If we win one more victory like this, we shall be utterly ruined!"
For labour to close much more they need conservative to labour switches and I doubt one conservative has or will move over to labour
The squeeze on TBP may actually break more for the conservatives, so where are labours votes coming from ?
Only from the Lib Dems, whose leader, members, and voters are now being subjected to round-the-clock abuse from Momentum trolls on Twitter.
No doubt that will be very effective in winning hearts and minds!
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick has said he will enter the Democratic presidential race, say people familiar with his conversations, reversing an earlier decision not to seek the White House.
The Conservatives shortening in Labour-held East Lothian (Lab Maj = 3,083)
SNP 10/11 SCon 9/4 SLab 5/2 SLD 50/1
The SNP PPC is Kenny MacAskill, the Justice Secretary 2007-2014.
You cant have it both ways Stuart! Either we are collapsing at the heel of a valliant Nicola or she is just hoping Alex Salmond's Indictment isn't served until after 12th December.
You misunderstand elementary voter behaviour. The Scottish Conservatives might be on the same battlefield, but we are fighting different demons. I’ve never claimed that you are about to be crushed by valiant Nicola. If you suffer badly (and I’m yet to be convinced on that point), it will be entirely self-inflicted friendly fire.
We are not really aiming to convert people straight from the Tories. That is incredibly difficult, and not remotely cost-effective. The best we can do is encourage folk to step away from the extremism of the SCAUP and onto more neutral ground.
Meanwhile, our real battle is primarily logistical: we simply have to get our existing, identified supporters registered, and to actually cast their vote.
If you think you are going to hold seats by talking folk into straight switching, you are very naive.
Quite right. This is a low turnout election and motivation is key, and encouraging unionists to the SLD camp too, in SCon held seats anyway.
I have made some long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015. If there are to be SLDgains, surely these are where they will be, and Davidson Remainer Tories the switchers.
- “... long shot bets on the SLD on the seats that were SLD until 2015”
Take a wee keek at: - Gordon 12/1 - Argyll & Bute 6/1 - Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey 20/1
Do your own research.
I have a little on each of those, but only the price of a pint.
Wise. I’m expecting those prices to come in as the Scottish polls start to dribble in and the lights go up.
Unless Swinson and/or Rennie blow up. Which is entirely feasible.
There' a curious lack of Scotland-only polls at the moment. Since a rise in the LD vote doesn't suit the agenda of any of the Scottish print media, draw your own conclusions. Reminds me of 2004 when there wasn't a single Scotland-only poll for a whole year.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
If this is a good poll for Labour, then let me quote Pyrrhus of Epirus after winning the battle of Asculum: "If we win one more victory like this, we shall be utterly ruined!"
For labour to close much more they need conservative to labour switches and I doubt one conservative has or will move over to labour
The squeeze on TBP may actually break more for the conservatives, so where are labours votes coming from ?
Mainly, I would suspect, from ex-Labour Leave voters reverting to habit in the polling booth, and Remainian tactical voting.
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
The more you see of Johnson's smirk the more you want to smack him in the face. Making sure you can vote is the next best thing?
Why do you promote violence. It is not necessary
Big G...stop being such a priggish bellend (in a nice bellendy kind of way)....
The Tories firewall is the BP standing down in those 317 seats . That means they can direct more resources to other seats .
But they don’t want to do a Hilary Clinton and take their eye off the ball , with seemingly locked down seats throwing up some shock results . And of course there is the chance that some complacency might set in with Tory voters in those seats .
Politics doesn't work like this - seriously.
The Conservatives will still work in the 317 seats - in fact, that's where most of their effort will be because that's where most of their activists are I suspect.
Stephen Timms and a dozen Labour activists were in East Ham High Street today - Timms has a wafer thin 39,883 majority so while I understand why he was out talking to his constituents (they aren't technically at the moment) what were the other activists doing? Why weren't they out working to defend Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North which the Conservatives have targeted or going up to Chingford and Woodford Green which, if Labour were doing better, would be a plausible objective?
I know the local East Ham Conservatives went up to Chingford and Woodford Green to support IDS but again I'm thinking - why? They are miles ahead and should be looking to gain Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North rather than defending seats they won't lose.
As a young Liberal I was told "if you can't win where you are, find where you can win and go there".
Wes Streeting has a majority of over 9,000 in Ilford North. Don't think the Tories will be winning here!
Indeed, plus Momentum have been piling in activists to Chingford where I have also been. The only realistic Tory gains on current polls in London are Kensington, Battersea, Enfield Southgate and Croydon South, otherwise it is about learning from 2017 and holding what we have got south of Watford and making gains in the North, Wales and the Midlands to get the majority.
Relying on the North to vote Tory to get them a majority. Does that not.worry you?
There' a curious lack of Scotland-only polls at the moment. Since a rise in the LD vote doesn't suit the agenda of any of the Scottish print media, draw your own conclusions. Reminds me of 2004 when there wasn't a single Scotland-only poll for a whole year.
It's not curious, polls cost money, and the Scottish print media in particular are going through a tough time.
I think we might get an Ipsos MORI/STV Scotland only poll soon.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
If this is a good poll for Labour, then let me quote Pyrrhus of Epirus after winning the battle of Asculum: "If we win one more victory like this, we shall be utterly ruined!"
For labour to close much more they need conservative to labour switches and I doubt one conservative has or will move over to labour
The squeeze on TBP may actually break more for the conservatives, so where are labours votes coming from ?
Only from the Lib Dems, whose leader, members, and voters are now being subjected to round-the-clock abuse from Momentum trolls on Twitter.
No doubt that will be very effective in winning hearts and minds!
What percentage of the total electorate subjects itself to being slagged off on Twitter?
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
The more you see of Johnson's smirk the more you want to smack him in the face. Making sure you can vote is the next best thing?
Hundreds of thousands of people want to assault the PM?
At least I'd think. He almost got lynched in Yorkshire today.
The Wiki poll summary site is being a bit slow adding the latest polls... I presume they have tightened up editing rights and checking after those fake polls were added last week?
In terms of voter registration a quite unexpected surge in registrations yesterday .
A 110,000 new registrations in the 18 to 34 age group . This is a bit of a shock which is 60,000 more than the previous day , I can’t think of anything news worthy that would cause this .
The more you see of Johnson's smirk the more you want to smack him in the face. Making sure you can vote is the next best thing?
Why do you promote violence. It is not necessary
Big G...stop being such a priggish bellend (in a nice bellendy kind of way)....
Sorry Tyson. I just cannot see in this climate suggesting someone is 'smacked in the face' is either necessary or helpful
Star Wars' Rian Johnson doesn't mind the arguing over The Last Jedi.
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
The Wiki poll summary site is being a bit slow adding the latest polls... I presume they have tightened up editing rights and checking after those fake polls were added last week?
'The exclusive Savanta ComRes survey for The Daily Telegraph found that 43 per cent of voters from the DE social group are prepared to vote for the Tories on December 12, up from 35 per cent in 2017. The poll found 40 per cent of AB voters plan to back Mr Johnson compared to 46 per cent who were prepared to vote for Theresa May two years ago. As champions of free-market capitalism, the Conservatives have always traditionally been seen as the party of the rich. However, since the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the largely Remain voting so-called metropolitan liberal elite have pivoted to the Liberal Democrats. Conversely, working-class Leave voters are increasingly backing the Prime Minister’s promise to ‘get Brexit done’ in the face of Labour prevarication over a second referendum.
...Among 2016 Leave voters, more than three in five (62 per cent) intend to vote for the Conservatives, while less than one in six (14 per cent) intend to vote for the Brexit Party. Just under half of 2016 Remain voters (45 per cent) intend to vote for Labour, while a quarter (26 per cent) intend to vote for the Lib Dems.
...In an indication of support for one of Mr Johnson’s flagship policies, over half of adults (56 per cent) would support changing the law so that military veterans are given new legal protection to prevent further prosecutions over killings during the Northern Ireland Troubles, compared to just one in ten (10 per cent) who would oppose it. The survey also found that two in five (41 per cent) British adults would oppose holding a second referendum on Scottish independence in 2020. This is compared to a quarter (24 per cent) who would support it'
A majority of voters support FOM in the Comres . 38% of Leavers support it aswell .
Perhaps the penny is finally dropping for some , Brits lose out aswell when FOM ends .
Sigh.... When will you lot finally grasp that many of us Leave voters didn’t have an issue with immigration?
Then we could have saved a lot of drama and stayed in the single market . Out of the customs union and you get your trade deals and us Remainers get FOM.
Comments
The Conservatives will still work in the 317 seats - in fact, that's where most of their effort will be because that's where most of their activists are I suspect.
Stephen Timms and a dozen Labour activists were in East Ham High Street today - Timms has a wafer thin 39,883 majority so while I understand why he was out talking to his constituents (they aren't technically at the moment) what were the other activists doing? Why weren't they out working to defend Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North which the Conservatives have targeted or going up to Chingford and Woodford Green which, if Labour were doing better, would be a plausible objective?
I know the local East Ham Conservatives went up to Chingford and Woodford Green to support IDS but again I'm thinking - why? They are miles ahead and should be looking to gain Dagenham & Rainham or Ilford North rather than defending seats they won't lose.
As a young Liberal I was told "if you can't win where you are, find where you can win and go there".
Jezbollah hiding from a voter who dared question his friendships with terrorists
The Labour 4 day a week wheeze with Shadow ministers disagreeing about if it applies to NHS or not
Incidentally, how do they find the extra staff for this or is it ok if people just die?
Then we have John Ashworth - this is Abbott levels of crapness
https://order-order.com/2019/11/13/jon-ashworth-disagrees-nhs-privatisation/
What a shower, a nasty, vile anti western shower.
https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1194729148058603521
might raise an eyebrow if it is new.
We aren't the ones wibbling about a 'Remain Alliance'.
Con back up, though their share wobbling about a bit has been a consistent feature of the polls recently.
The other consistent feature has been Labour steadily creeping upwards in almost all of them. Evident here once again...
I think the EU and the UK will agree an interim free trade agreement by year end, that will contain relatively little regulatory divergence. The real, final free trade agreement will then end up being negotiated ad nauseum for the next decade or so, and may be superseded by events.
Ah, smug (triumphalist) mode.
http://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP10337
An independent tag not good enough for Mr Field!
Labour lead amongst public sector workers. Fair enough you say. But they also lead amongst private sector workers as well.
Labour lead amongst people who work.
That's just mind boggling that they can lead amongst the working population and be behind overall by 10 points.
I wonder what the change in the tory lead would be now over the last week not including the Kanter poll with big methodological changes.
It'll go higher......
We move.
Re UNS. Worth remembering the LDs start six points ahead of the SNP. And they're up (we can reasonably assume) in absolute vote share in Scotland. The SNP therefore would need to add maybe ten percentage points to their share to win the seat. While the SNP's vote will almost certainly increase in Scotland, I don't see a ten point jump.
Remainia. Sure.
Local strength. The LDs made progress in Edinburgh West in the last local elections. And that was at a time they were doing less well.
Other votes to squeeze: there are more unionist votes to squeeze in Edinburgh West than pro-independence ones.
I am intrigued to hear Farage is toying with backing the conservatives depending on the manifesto. Is this his final act- to instruct all TBP supporters to vote for Boris
Maybe, maybe not but it would be a big moment
"So much of the fun of it is arguing about it."
Rian Johnson has revealed that he doesn't mind Star Wars fans arguing over The Last Jedi.
The Knives Out director bore the brunt of a strong audience reaction to the second film in the current Star Wars trilogy, which hit cinemas back in 2017.
But after fan backlash and even petitions to have the film removed from canon and remade, Rian — who is still in line to direct a whole new trilogy of Star Wars films — has revealed he doesn't really mind fans debating the film.
In fact, he quite likes it.
https://www.digitalspy.com/movies/a29771402/star-wars-rian-johnson-the-last-jedi-criticism-doesnt-mind-arguing/
Apparently only Labour have fully costed policies that address society's injustices fairly, which is a clever phrase - others might have costed policies, they might even address society's injustices, but not fairly. Plus I'm suspicious of something being costed rather than funded, but the Tories won't be able to throw stones in that regard.
And rail, mail and water into public hands (for some reason I feel like somebody pitched 'rail, mail and pail', but realised the latter is not obvious enough).
Referendum with 'leave on a defined deal' and 'remain' on the ballot. Interesting phrasing again. Not guaranteed to put a Labour deal on the ballot, just a defined deal?
Helpfully, it also clarified that their slogan is not just an empty sound bite, they really do mean 'for the many not the few'. Good thing they said that, or I'd think they were joshing.
Quite apart from the 30% or more of the entire electorate that doesn't vote to begin with, at least half of the fraction that do are habit voters, and most of them will either have paid no attention to anything that happens during the campaign, or will have interpreted whatever they have heard in a manner appropriate to reinforcing their own biases.
Swing voters are a minority group and those who pay real attention to these controversies are a subset within that.
Except from the amount of jokes I am getting sent which poke fun at the absurdity that is Labour, far more than aimed at other parties combined.
Plus seeing people talking about it in the breakout area at work.
The video of Corbyn heading to the hills after being questioned on his interesting friends will I think be noticed.
I thought he was the brave campaigner who left others to "run away"
You've got to admire the effort.
OK, so far 5 polls this week with field work ending on or since Sunday - average Con lead 10%.
https://twitter.com/chriscurtis94/status/1194733170371022848
Coming from you, a purveyor of fake news the criticism is a tad ironic.
You left out sinister bankers who might or might not have long noses btw
You really must try harder
But it's not reflected in the polls. There are still people saying they will vote BXP where there is no candidate, for example
Since the dissolution, Labour has strengthened in the polls whilst its opponents have trod water or gone backwards. Another month of that and we could easily be back into Hung Parliament territory again.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/13/tories-popular-among-working-class-rich-new-general-election/
Perhaps the penny is finally dropping for some , Brits lose out aswell when FOM ends .
The squeeze on TBP may actually break more for the conservatives, so where are labours votes coming from ?
"WHO DARES WINS"
WE dare! WE will WIN!
No doubt that will be very effective in winning hearts and minds!
Former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick has said he will enter the Democratic presidential race, say people familiar with his conversations, reversing an earlier decision not to seek the White House.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/deval-patrick-has-decided-to-enter-democratic-presidential-race-11573677322
Will he get the editor fired seeing as it’s his fan magazine . That headline will be a gift to the opposition especially the Lib Dems .
I think we might get an Ipsos MORI/STV Scotland only poll soon.
So I think we may our first MRP in the next fortnight, maybe the next week.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/entertainment-arts-50403561?__twitter_impression=true
Hmmm. Under this poll, if Labour were a Formula 1 car, it would just have been lapped.
Twice.
As champions of free-market capitalism, the Conservatives have always traditionally been seen as the party of the rich. However, since the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, the largely Remain voting so-called metropolitan liberal elite have pivoted to the Liberal Democrats. Conversely, working-class Leave voters are increasingly backing the Prime Minister’s promise to ‘get Brexit done’ in the face of Labour prevarication over a second referendum.
...Among 2016 Leave voters, more than three in five (62 per cent) intend to vote for the Conservatives, while less than one in six (14 per cent) intend to vote for the Brexit Party.
Just under half of 2016 Remain voters (45 per cent) intend to vote for Labour, while a quarter (26 per cent) intend to vote for the Lib Dems.
...In an indication of support for one of Mr Johnson’s flagship policies, over half of adults (56 per cent) would support changing the law so that military veterans are given new legal protection to prevent further prosecutions over killings during the Northern Ireland Troubles, compared to just one in ten (10 per cent) who would oppose it.
The survey also found that two in five (41 per cent) British adults would oppose holding a second referendum on Scottish independence in 2020. This is compared to a quarter (24 per cent) who would support it'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/11/13/tories-popular-among-working-class-rich-new-general-election/
First it was “oven-ready, just put it in the microwave” (in which case it’ll come out unbaked and disappointingly soggy).
Then “Pot Noodle” (seems like a great idea when it’s sold to you, until you have your first taste and want to barf up your own kidneys).
And tonight “Blue Peter Brexit - one we made earlier” (out of bog rolls and double-sided sticky tape; will be lucky to last until Friday)
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1194736455849000961