These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Local press get no facetime with the PM so are forced to splash the picture of Boris at the local hospital, rather than lead on Boris refusing to commit to whatever is the local issue of the day. You can see why they do it.
So - shitposting. Was that Yvette Cooper leaflet with a picture of her, some tiny text, and the word 'rubbish' a shitpost then? I often think back to that in wonder.
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
I think the turnout will be interesting . That could be crucial if there’s big differences between Remain and Leave areas . We saw in the Euros generally higher turnout in Remain areas .
The Labour leave demographic has historically been less likely to vote than almost any other group. I can't see any obvious reason for this to change now.
I would appreciate observations on how some modelling I have done to predict results for English seats using the mega YouGov data set could be improved. It uses the format published earlier by YouGov which identified Leave and Remain supporters of each party according to whom they voted for in 2017 and then gave a split of which party they are voting for now.
The basic method is to: 1. take the 2017 GE result by constituency and then notionally split the votes for each party into leave and remain using the weighted sample totals for GB as applied by YouGov in their mega poll e.g. YouGov used 2205 Lab Remain v 1032 Lab Leave 2017 voters so I assume that across GB 31.9% of 2017 Lab voters voted Leave in the referendum. 2. Compare the 2016 actual result my model predicts for each constituency using with the HOC Library actual and notional results by constituency. Then adjust the results by changing the split of Leave voters in each constituency by a uniform factor for each party. So for example if my model predicted a Leave vote of 55% and the HOC figure was 60% then the % of the 2017 Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green and Other voters who voted Leave would all be increased by 5%. 3. Then assign each group a vote in 2019 using the % which YouGov found in their mega poll. eg. 47% of 2017 Con Remain voters will still vote Con, 3% Lab, 24% LD, 1% BXP, 2% Green, 1% Other (treating the DK/DV/Refused as non voters). The split for "Other" voters was scaled up to attempt a split for England only eliminating the SNP/Plaid supporters in the YouGov polling.
This quite rough and ready model ends up predicting that Con will win 409 English seats compared to 296 in 2017. I think that is wildly overstating the actual Con result, with tactical voting being totally ignored. Nonetheless it gives a flavour of how the impact of Brexit on past party loyalties could be playing out before tactical voting comes into play, with a large number of Leave voting Labour constituencies seemingly at risk.
There are some gremlins which v2 will attempt to iron out, because at the moment where the predicted Leave % is well under the actual Leave % step 2 you can get a split of UKIP voters where (say) 110% of 2017 UKIP voters are deemed to have voted Leave and -10% to have voted Remain.
Anyway, observations on how the assumptions in the model might be tweaked for v2 would be appreciated.
PS. One obvious flaw is that there will be a people voting in 2019 who didn't vote at the referendum in 2016. I think there is sufficient data in the YouGov dataset to work out the numbers and split of this group by deduction, which is bound to shift the results slightly away from the Conservatives.
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
I think the turnout will be interesting . That could be crucial if there’s big differences between Remain and Leave areas . We saw in the Euros generally higher turnout in Remain areas .
I'm fully expecting turnout in labour leave areas to be poor compared to the big remain cities.
My reading of this election is mostly down to one thing, and that is, of course, Brexit. The froth over Mogg, and all these dodgy candidates standing down, and plenty of other stuff we assume will be important, but isn't, will be long forgotten come election day. What won't be forgotten, however, is Labour's Great Brexit Fudge, and that is what will sink them come polling day.
I see the Lib Dems have dubbed the visa fee the ‘Nurse Tax’. Could catch on.
Merely a requirement EU nurses pay a visa fee as much as any other nurses from OS so entirely fair for non UK citizens to pay a £400 fee to use the NHS too if they are not paying UK tax in full
Off topic, I have to say I cannot fathom the Brexit Party's strategy in this election.
They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.
They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".
But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.
My guess is:
1. They believed their own hype, following the European election success, and genuinely thought they'd be able to make a breakthrough with a significant number of MPs, and perhaps force the Tories into an electoral pact.
2. However, as things have turned out, Farage in particular has realised that their fox has been shot, or more likely temporarily concussed, so he's trying to row back.
3. But they are too far down the road to do the sensible thing and not stand their 600+ candidates, who were all fired up and in many cases had paid for the privilege of being considered.
4. So Farage has fallen back on to bluster and sniping from the sidelines, in the probably justified hope that Boris is going to hit major turbulence when he shafts the ERG next year and has to accept a raft of EU regulation (and future changes to EU regulation) to get any kind of trade agreement.
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
I think the turnout will be interesting . That could be crucial if there’s big differences between Remain and Leave areas . We saw in the Euros generally higher turnout in Remain areas .
The Labour leave demographic has historically been less likely to vote than almost any other group. I can't see any obvious reason for this to change now.
Also Labour Leavers are less leave if you know what I mean . They tend to prioritize other issues more , whereas Tory Leavers are the opposite .
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Perhaps they've noticed that local papers are (in most places) dying on their arse, while the numbers listening to a typical local radio station are tiny (you need to be on a lot of local radio shows to equal one Radio 2 soundbite).
Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.
Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.
Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
Didn't a review of medical mistakes find most were committed by health workers from outside the UK?
Most accidents on the stairs take place on the first step. Removing the first step does not fix the issue.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Perhaps they've noticed that local papers are (in most places) dying on their arse, while the numbers listening to a typical local radio station are tiny (you need to be on a lot of local radio shows to equal one Radio 2 soundbite).
Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.
Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.
It's fairly easy calculation isn't it? What would you rather face, an eminently predictable dolly from Laura K or a challenge from an aggrieved local hack who knows his patch?
Off topic, I have to say I cannot fathom the Brexit Party's strategy in this election.
They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.
They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".
But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.
If that is the outcome (i.e. the BXP getting 8-10% with no seats) and we get another parliament with the Conservatives a few votes short of being able to push Johnson's deal through, I would expect that in a 2020 GE the Leave vote would consolidate around the Conservatives with the BXP suffering the same fate as UKIP suffered in 2017.
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Local press get no facetime with the PM so are forced to splash the picture of Boris at the local hospital, rather than lead on Boris refusing to commit to whatever is the local issue of the day. You can see why they do it.
According to the "journalist" who wrote that hatchet piece the issue of the day appears to be the governments treatment of miners ...
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
Just wait until we get the HS2 overruns.It will make this lot look like peanuts.
I know.
To state the obvious it will presumably come into service in a large number of stages. I imagine there will be long periods where there is great inconvenience for everyone as each of these stages is met. I remember all the emotion about HS1 and really can't say it is much better except St Pancras is a lot cleaner than I remember Waterloo being.
I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
It’s almost certainly a deliberate shitpost.
In trying to get it to go viral (via this method) the LDs want to subliminally communicate to voters that they will invest in skills and be good for your wallets.
I read it as they will neglect skills and go for my wallet, which is probably more accurate.
It’s interesting that rather than try to park yellow tanks on the blue Tory lawn they’ve instead gone for the old tired LD trick of “a penny on income tax for good cause X”.
I think they’ve rolled that out at every election since time immemorial.
First of all CR, I am on a mobile and I accidently knocked the dissaprove button! Sorry about that! Not meant at all.
With reference to the penny on income tax, this should be alarming for the Tories as it means the electorate is bored of austerity and spending is key (private polling must show the age of austerity has to go). Maybe this has driven BJ's sudden spendthrift tendencies?
No worries.
I think most of the time on here when the ‘off-topic’ button is pushed it’s done by accident when we mean to push ‘like’.
Except if you’re Sunil. Who, bless him, socially self-aware chap that he is, usually earns his flags and off-topics.
I received an off-topic flag for one of my only on topic comments of the day recently. I had assumed it was a sarcastic flag, rather than accidental.
Since I rather belatedly got a mobile which allows me to interact satisfactorily with this site, I've accidentally off-topicked a few posts. Is there a way of unflagging once you've flagged it? Apologies to anyone I've accidentally flagged. And I really don't care if a post is off-topic. What would this site be without it's occasional forays into ancient history or trains? In fact, I think it was a discussion of cheese back in 2005 that first reeled me in. Of course, politics was much less eventful ans/or terrifying in those days, so we needed a few off topics to keep ua going...
If you accidentally press OffTopic, all you have to do to cancel it is press it again.
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Local press get no facetime with the PM so are forced to splash the picture of Boris at the local hospital, rather than lead on Boris refusing to commit to whatever is the local issue of the day. You can see why they do it.
According to the "journalist" who wrote that hatchet piece the issue of the day appears to be the governments treatment of miners ...
... odd number one issue in 2019.
Not in Ashfield. And their second question was about floods.
I don't know if this website has spent too long discussing anti-Semitism today, but it must have triggered some algo as the banner ad at the top was trying to flog me a flight to Tel Aviv...
That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .
Tories at 40% though
The Tory lead has been coming down, slowly.
Yes, mainly because the LD campaign has failed to take off. In September Labour and the LDs were almost neck-and-neck in many of the polls and I expected the LDs to take advantage of that position during the campaign to try and overtake Labour.
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
I think the turnout will be interesting . That could be crucial if there’s big differences between Remain and Leave areas . We saw in the Euros generally higher turnout in Remain areas .
The Labour leave demographic has historically been less likely to vote than almost any other group. I can't see any obvious reason for this to change now.
Also Labour Leavers are less leave if you know what I mean . They tend to prioritize other issues more , whereas Tory Leavers are the opposite .
There is something in your first point. YouGov's mega poll had 31% of 1032 Labour leavers who voted in 2017 as Don't Know/Non-Voter/Refused as compared 19% of 2205 Labour remainers.
However, regardless of how committed they are to a view on Brexit I think you should take at face value the stated voting intention of those who have made a response. Only 29% of those 1032 Labour leavers intended to still vote Labour. Regardless of Brexit, other polling has shown that Labour leavers as a group are far more pissed off with Corbyn than are Labour Remainers, not that the latter are particularly enamoured with him.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
I couldnt agree more. Since I moved from England to Wales they'v stopped asking me. Or maybe it's becaiuse I kept saying I was certain to vote (10/10). I suppose they are after the swing voter.
Ironically, my sauces tell me Tom Watson has applied to be Jacob Rees-Mogg's Dawn Butler.
Duties include poaching quails eggs, ironing the Daily Telegraph, moving the Bentley out of the restricted parking bay before the traffic wardens go on duty etc. Any essential tasks that a gentleman requires doing between the hours of 4 and 7am basically.
Including in the case of Jacob, ensuring he is ready for Lauds at dawn.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .
Tories at 40% though
The Tory lead has been coming down, slowly.
Yes, mainly because the LD campaign has failed to take off. In September Labour and the LDs were almost neck-and-neck in many of the polls and I expected the LDs to take advantage of that position during the campaign to try and overtake Labour.
Indeed I can't understand the government's logic in not pushing for Swinson to be included in the debates. Make it 'Get Brexit Done' v 'Bollocks to Brexit' v Corbyn's sitting on the fence not simply Boris v Corbyn. Lib Dems being squeezed isn't advantageous to the Tories so I do not understand the logic.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.
Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
Didn't a review of medical mistakes find most were committed by health workers from outside the UK?
Most accidents on the stairs take place on the first step. Removing the first step does not fix the issue.
But would not stop Chris Grayling advocating it as a policy.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Off topic, I have to say I cannot fathom the Brexit Party's strategy in this election.
They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.
They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".
But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.
If that is the outcome (i.e. the BXP getting 8-10% with no seats) and we get another parliament with the Conservatives a few votes short of being able to push Johnson's deal through, I would expect that in a 2020 GE the Leave vote would consolidate around the Conservatives with the BXP suffering the same fate as UKIP suffered in 2017.
It is more likely, I think, if Boris fails to get a majority this time, that Remain will prevail. and that a cobbled together alliance will achieve Remain before collapsing.
On the evidence of tactics and deeds quite a lot of Brexit people either have no wish actually to leave, or at least take any responsibility for its form. Just as Corbyn has no wish whatever actually to have to run the country. Whether Boris is the exception remains to be seen. We haven't really left until (a) we have legally left and (b) gone beyond the transition period. Promises that this will not go beyond December 2020 can be treated in the now accustomed manner, so we are looking at 2022 or thereabouts for a fascinating crisis. If Boris loses we will remain, and never know where he stands; if he wins it will be a long time before we are certain. If I had to guess, I think Boris is in the long run a Remainer. Maybe the person Boris is most like is Micawber, for whom in the end, something turned up.
My sense is that anyway if remain can get to close on 5 years after the referendum without some sort of decision (2021) that people will anyway coalesce around the idea that it is time for a new look at things.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”
......
He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”
He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Perhaps they've noticed that local papers are (in most places) dying on their arse, while the numbers listening to a typical local radio station are tiny (you need to be on a lot of local radio shows to equal one Radio 2 soundbite).
Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.
Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.
Chad not dying on its arse quite yet. They have about 300k people in their area, which is nearly as many as Nottingham.
I was on the front page of that a few years ago thanks to bloody Zadrozny when he was a Councillor! Called in my Planning Application to committee, and then put Lib Dem leaflets out to about 500 houses 2-3 days before. Classic 'find a mob and lead it' pavement politics tactics.
Well, Boris got an "incompetent Gov't can't organise a Press Stunt in a hospital" story out of it.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.
Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
Didn't a review of medical mistakes find most were committed by health workers from outside the UK?
Most accidents on the stairs take place on the first step. Removing the first step does not fix the issue.
Absolutely right. If we did that, most accidents would occur on the second step. Any fool can see that.
It's only by the radical move of removing both the first and second steps that we can solve this problem once and for all.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.
Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
Didn't a review of medical mistakes find most were committed by health workers from outside the UK?
Most accidents on the stairs take place on the first step. Removing the first step does not fix the issue.
Absolutely right. If we did that, most accidents would occur on the second step.
It's only by the radical move of removing both the first and second steps that we can solve this problem once and for all.
Pedantic - but surely those accidents would still be on the first step?
The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”
......
He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”
He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”
Based on his analysis, however much he likes his Conservative replacement, an honourable man could not vote Conservative. Whatever her views she is standing to support those he criticises. I have long admired Clarke, but his past will count for nothing if, during this election, his words do not match to his actions.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.
Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
Didn't a review of medical mistakes find most were committed by health workers from outside the UK?
Most accidents on the stairs take place on the first step. Removing the first step does not fix the issue.
Absolutely right. If we did that, most accidents would occur on the second step.
It's only by the radical move of removing both the first and second steps that we can solve this problem once and for all.
Pedantic - but surely those accidents would still be on the first step?
Not if you simply moved the first step to the middle of the staircase in the interests of public safety.
We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.
I'm working on a plot showing the polling averages in the 50 days leading up to the election. So far Labour's curve looks eerily familiar, lol.
The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”
......
He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”
He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”
Well the last point is rubbish. Apart from anything else (such as her competence) Rudd chose to end her own cabinet career and gave up the Tory whip herself.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .
Tories at 40% though
The Tory lead has been coming down, slowly.
Yes, mainly because the LD campaign has failed to take off. In September Labour and the LDs were almost neck-and-neck in many of the polls and I expected the LDs to take advantage of that position during the campaign to try and overtake Labour.
Indeed I can't understand the government's logic in not pushing for Swinson to be included in the debates. Make it 'Get Brexit Done' v 'Bollocks to Brexit' v Corbyn's sitting on the fence not simply Boris v Corbyn. Lib Dems being squeezed isn't advantageous to the Tories so I do not understand the logic.
The Tories are always petrified at the LibDem threat because, were it not for the electoral system, they would be far more formidable opponents than the caricature of the Labour Party who they prefer to fight.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.
Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
Didn't a review of medical mistakes find most were committed by health workers from outside the UK?
Most accidents on the stairs take place on the first step. Removing the first step does not fix the issue.
Absolutely right. If we did that, most accidents would occur on the second step.
It's only by the radical move of removing both the first and second steps that we can solve this problem once and for all.
Pedantic - but surely those accidents would still be on the first step?
Not if you simply moved the first step to the middle of the staircase in the interests of public safety.
Only if you have a funny way of counting the steps, you mean?
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Avon? Aided by only existing for twenty-two years...
Edit: No, there was a female Labour MP in Bristol.
...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...
Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.
Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
Didn't a review of medical mistakes find most were committed by health workers from outside the UK?
Most accidents on the stairs take place on the first step. Removing the first step does not fix the issue.
Absolutely right. If we did that, most accidents would occur on the second step.
It's only by the radical move of removing both the first and second steps that we can solve this problem once and for all.
Pedantic - but surely those accidents would still be on the first step?
Not if you simply moved the first step to the middle of the staircase in the interests of public safety.
Please - I beg you - stop this immediately. Think of the casualties if Grayling gets to hear about this.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Avon? Aided by only existing for twenty-two years...
There’s a whole shedload of female MPs in Avon right now (well, until a day or two ago)
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”
......
He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”
He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”
That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .
Tories at 40% though
The Tory lead has been coming down, slowly.
Yes, mainly because the LD campaign has failed to take off. In September Labour and the LDs were almost neck-and-neck in many of the polls and I expected the LDs to take advantage of that position during the campaign to try and overtake Labour.
Indeed I can't understand the government's logic in not pushing for Swinson to be included in the debates. Make it 'Get Brexit Done' v 'Bollocks to Brexit' v Corbyn's sitting on the fence not simply Boris v Corbyn. Lib Dems being squeezed isn't advantageous to the Tories so I do not understand the logic.
Why risk it when you're 10% up in the polls? It could work like a dream, but might also be a disaster. Letting Clegg in in 2010 probably deprived Cameron of a majority - it was a change election, and Cameron could probably have capitalised had much of the campaign not been consumed by the Clegg-gasm.
If it had been Cable, the logic may be different. You know what you're getting - cautious, thoughtful answers, but basically quite boring. But Swinson is potentially dangerous.
Even if you don't rate her (like you) can you guarantee she wouldn't put in a good performance and come out as the change candidate; the feisty, vibrant young woman in a colourful dress in contrast to dour, elderly Corbyn and scruffy, bumbling Johnson? And if you can't 100% guarantee it, why risk it?
Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).
Making a change after the event, and finding that it “corrects” your past error, doesn’t in any way prove that (not making) the change was responsible for that error, without any further digging or theoretical basis. It might just be chance.
Hey party bigwigs, if you are reading here - PB can offer a thorough candidate vetting service for a low low price.
Rapid response time will let you know if your preferred pick is a Wrong 'Un.
My smell test is always alerted by ppcs who have set their long standing twitter accounts to protected status, preventing scrutiny of past tweets. I wonder if Marco Longhi - the Conservative PPC for Dudley North - has anything to hide or if he is just so publicity shy that he wants to keep a low profile?
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Local press get no facetime with the PM so are forced to splash the picture of Boris at the local hospital, rather than lead on Boris refusing to commit to whatever is the local issue of the day. You can see why they do it.
According to the "journalist" who wrote that hatchet piece the issue of the day appears to be the governments treatment of miners ...
... odd number one issue in 2019.
Not in Ashfield. And their second question was about floods.
The flood story is here. Collapse of bank in estate built in ex-quarry. 35 homes evacuated.
We also had a knife murder last weekend. Very unusual - this is not London.
I'm visiting the hospital twice a day at the moment. Quite cool and much improved recently. They have posters in the lift promoting sausages and full english in the staff/public canteen.
This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
For people who wonder what cuts through to the ordinary voters, this was from Ashcroft's focus group.
A final quickfire round. What do we actually know about the leaders? Impressions of Jo Swinson remained sketchy: “Er, she’s a lady;” “Has a young child;” “Was a junior minister in the coalition;” “Has a Labrador.”
Boris? “Lives in Islington;” “Had a big fight with his girlfriend;” “Went to Eton;” “Doesn’t know how many children he has;” “Lied to the Queen;” “Wrote a novel called Seventy-Two Virgins;” “There was a scandal with a pig.” How will you feel if you wake up on 13th December and he’s still Prime Minister? “Thank God;” “Well, here we are again;” “There will be riots outside the Co-op. I might even be there;” “I’d go to Europe like a shot, but we won’t be allowed to.”
And Mr. Corbyn? “Went to Glastonbury;” “Has an allotment;” “He cycles everywhere;” “Vegetarian;” “He had a thing with Diane Abbott. A tryst, I think they called it;” “Went to a private school;” “He has a cat called El Gato who comes when he sings Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree.”
Corbyn's cat sure has strange sexual predilections.
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
Has there ever been a female MP from Herefordshire ?
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Local press get no facetime with the PM so are forced to splash the picture of Boris at the local hospital, rather than lead on Boris refusing to commit to whatever is the local issue of the day. You can see why they do it.
According to the "journalist" who wrote that hatchet piece the issue of the day appears to be the governments treatment of miners ...
... odd number one issue in 2019.
Not in Ashfield. And their second question was about floods.
The flood story is here. Collapse of bank in estate built in ex-quarry. 35 homes evacuated.
We also had a knife murder last weekend. Very unusual - this is not London.
I'm visiting the hospital twice a day at the moment. Quite cool and much improved recently. They have posters in the lift promoting sausages and full english in the staff/public canteen.
It could hardly have got much worse. Many people dread ending up at Kings Mill and ambulance driers have been known to recommend taking patients to other hospitals further away rather than have them end up there.
Tory candidate for Wakefield in a spot of bother over ill advised social media posts aimed at his opponent.
I am not sure this is as good as your earlier coup.
Calvert said something uncomplimentary about Mary Creagh NINE years ago.
He said "I can't believe just how shocking Mary Creagh looks on TV. Obviously the BBC make up dept don’t work on Sunday.” on 8 August 2010
Is that it? Or is there more ?
It isn't, but the stream of candidates in bother (most of whom are old enough to know better) is fairly steady.
Local party are reviewing his position, apparently.
The stuff by the Labour candidate in West Derby is much worse, but he's 'been on a journey' and Liverpool Labour is full of dim Trots, so he'll probably get away with it.
Here's a little theory on the debates. I don't actually think it's likely, but think it's possible.
Corbyn and Johnson's people have clearly made great play with ITV and the BBC that it's head-to-head or they don't show.
If they had a free hand, would the broadcasters design it as head to head? Probably not for three reasons. Firstly, it's poor TV - male, stale and pale, probably both being pretty cautious. There's nobody in there to mix it up - a splash of colour; a battle on multiple fronts. Secondly, it's legally risky - Rule 6 of the Broadcasting Code has special requirements around election impartiality including "appropriate coverage" to parties with "significant views and perspectives". So where's the Remain voice in an election explicitly called to get a majority for a way forward on Brexit? The revoke and remain view is shared by a lot of people and is unrepresented in the head-to-head which is Leave on my deal vs Leave on MY deal (probably - TBC). Thirdly, ITV and BBC types are the metropolitan elite - notwithstanding the televisual aspects and legal aspects, quite a few will be personally uncomfortable about this whole situation.
So possibly you wait until the 11th hour - literally right before the debate - and say "Jeremy! Boris! So sorry chaps, but the bloody lawyers say we've got to put in a third podium. Awfully sorry and all that; I was livid but what could I do?" You put them in an unbelievably tricky position - do you walk when faced with debating with a woman?
As I say, I don't actually think this is a probable scenario. But wouldn't totally rule it out.
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
Has there ever been a female MP from Herefordshire ?
The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”
......
He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”
He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”
Very sad to hear David Gauke is having to stand down.... if only TMay could have cut off the careers of those like Private Francois and that Bridgen oik.
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
We all know that only the pre-1974 county boundaries count.
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
Lift up your head Long-Bailey Lift up your head and grin Lift up your head Long-Bailey Poor girl you're bound to win
Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.
They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
Sad but probably true.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
Rutland?
Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
We all know that only the pre-1974 county boundaries count.
If we go by that criteria, Westmorland has also never had a female MP.
The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”
......
He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”
He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”
Very sad to hear David Gauke is having to stand down.... if only TMay could have cut off the careers of those like Private Francois and that Bridgen oik.
Comments
1. They believed their own hype, following the European election success, and genuinely thought they'd be able to make a breakthrough with a significant number of MPs, and perhaps force the Tories into an electoral pact.
2. However, as things have turned out, Farage in particular has realised that their fox has been shot, or more likely temporarily concussed, so he's trying to row back.
3. But they are too far down the road to do the sensible thing and not stand their 600+ candidates, who were all fired up and in many cases had paid for the privilege of being considered.
4. So Farage has fallen back on to bluster and sniping from the sidelines, in the probably justified hope that Boris is going to hit major turbulence when he shafts the ERG next year and has to accept a raft of EU regulation (and future changes to EU regulation) to get any kind of trade agreement.
Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.
Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.
... odd number one issue in 2019.
However, regardless of how committed they are to a view on Brexit I think you should take at face value the stated voting intention of those who have made a response. Only 29% of those 1032 Labour leavers intended to still vote Labour. Regardless of Brexit, other polling has shown that Labour leavers as a group are far more pissed off with Corbyn than are Labour Remainers, not that the latter are particularly enamoured with him.
Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
In 2015 and 17 the lower the constituency turnout the higher the SNP vote share
In 2017 the higher the vote share the higher the Con vote.
On the evidence of tactics and deeds quite a lot of Brexit people either have no wish actually to leave, or at least take any responsibility for its form. Just as Corbyn has no wish whatever actually to have to run the country. Whether Boris is the exception remains to be seen. We haven't really left until (a) we have legally left and (b) gone beyond the transition period. Promises that this will not go beyond December 2020 can be treated in the now accustomed manner, so we are looking at 2022 or thereabouts for a fascinating crisis. If Boris loses we will remain, and never know where he stands; if he wins it will be a long time before we are certain. If I had to guess, I think Boris is in the long run a Remainer. Maybe the person Boris is most like is Micawber, for whom in the end, something turned up.
My sense is that anyway if remain can get to close on 5 years after the referendum without some sort of decision (2021) that people will anyway coalesce around the idea that it is time for a new look at things.
Lift up your head and grin
Lift up your head Long-Bailey
Poor girl you're bound to win
The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”
......
He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”
He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/saturday-interview-ken-clarke-q2t8v0qm2
I was on the front page of that a few years ago thanks to bloody Zadrozny when he was a Councillor! Called in my Planning Application to committee, and then put Lib Dem leaflets out to about 500 houses 2-3 days before. Classic 'find a mob and lead it' pavement politics tactics.
Well, Boris got an "incompetent Gov't can't organise a Press Stunt in a hospital" story out of it.
He is! He'll do whatever it takes to cling onto power - the mendacious disingenuous racist buffoon!
It's only by the radical move of removing both the first and second steps that we can solve this problem once and for all.
Edit: No, there was a female Labour MP in Bristol.
https://talkradio.co.uk/news/exclusive-tory-candidate-under-review-over-facebook-posts-19110832555
Rapid response time will let you know if your preferred pick is a Wrong 'Un.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/job-share-plan-for-labour-co-leaders-to-succeed-jeremy-corbyn-if-he-loses-general-election_uk_5dc591cce4b0fcfb7f658a2d?dt
The guy Wells is responding to had his model predicting the result to he 3% in 2017, which it was (2.8% lead for tories).
https://mobile.twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1192848605247397888
- Crossed the road to fight with health unions, alienating staff before bringing in the awful “internal market” model.
- Helped to destroy legal aid.
- Oversaw a period of decay in our National infrastructure with idiotic capital spending cuts as Chancellor.
If it had been Cable, the logic may be different. You know what you're getting - cautious, thoughtful answers, but basically quite boring. But Swinson is potentially dangerous.
Even if you don't rate her (like you) can you guarantee she wouldn't put in a good performance and come out as the change candidate; the feisty, vibrant young woman in a colourful dress in contrast to dour, elderly Corbyn and scruffy, bumbling Johnson? And if you can't 100% guarantee it, why risk it?
https://www.chad.co.uk/news/politics/poorly-managed-visit-from-boris-johnson-in-sutton-leaves-voters-with-unanswered-questions-1-10093562
We also had a knife murder last weekend. Very unusual - this is not London.
I'm visiting the hospital twice a day at the moment. Quite cool and much improved recently. They have posters in the lift promoting sausages and full english in the staff/public canteen.
Calvert said something uncomplimentary about Mary Creagh NINE years ago.
He said "I can't believe just how shocking Mary Creagh looks on TV. Obviously the BBC make up dept don’t work on Sunday.” on 8 August 2010
Is that it? Or is there more ?
It won't be the last delay or overrun either. Original budget and programme was a fantasy.
Too late to cancel Crossrail although it should never have been started.
Panelbase suggests this week's events are water off a duck's back.
Labour's problem is that a plague on both your houses leaves the Conservatives winning.
https://twitter.com/LordJohnMann/status/1192867118989152258
Local party are reviewing his position, apparently.
The stuff by the Labour candidate in West Derby is much worse, but he's 'been on a journey' and Liverpool Labour is full of dim Trots, so he'll probably get away with it.
Corbyn and Johnson's people have clearly made great play with ITV and the BBC that it's head-to-head or they don't show.
If they had a free hand, would the broadcasters design it as head to head? Probably not for three reasons. Firstly, it's poor TV - male, stale and pale, probably both being pretty cautious. There's nobody in there to mix it up - a splash of colour; a battle on multiple fronts. Secondly, it's legally risky - Rule 6 of the Broadcasting Code has special requirements around election impartiality including "appropriate coverage" to parties with "significant views and perspectives". So where's the Remain voice in an election explicitly called to get a majority for a way forward on Brexit? The revoke and remain view is shared by a lot of people and is unrepresented in the head-to-head which is Leave on my deal vs Leave on MY deal (probably - TBC). Thirdly, ITV and BBC types are the metropolitan elite - notwithstanding the televisual aspects and legal aspects, quite a few will be personally uncomfortable about this whole situation.
So possibly you wait until the 11th hour - literally right before the debate - and say "Jeremy! Boris! So sorry chaps, but the bloody lawyers say we've got to put in a third podium. Awfully sorry and all that; I was livid but what could I do?" You put them in an unbelievably tricky position - do you walk when faced with debating with a woman?
As I say, I don't actually think this is a probable scenario. But wouldn't totally rule it out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isle_of_Wight#Modern_history