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  • Tory candidate for Wakefield in a spot of bother over ill advised social media posts aimed at his opponent.

    I am not sure this is as good as your earlier coup.

    Calvert said something uncomplimentary about Mary Creagh NINE years ago.

    He said "I can't believe just how shocking Mary Creagh looks on TV. Obviously the BBC make up dept don’t work on Sunday.” on 8 August 2010

    Is that it? Or is there more ?
    It isn't, but the stream of candidates in bother (most of whom are old enough to know better) is fairly steady.

    Local party are reviewing his position, apparently.

    The stuff by the Labour candidate in West Derby is much worse, but he's 'been on a journey' and Liverpool Labour is full of dim Trots, so he'll probably get away with it.
    We are in danger of total false equivalence in some of this stuff. Making one or two dodgy comments / jokes years ago is totally different ball game to people having a long.history of anti-Semitic comments or the alleged stuff around the Cairns mate rape trial story.

    e.g. the labour MP in the stoke area that made some snide comments about other parts of stoke and stuff like that, i don't care about.
  • IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    We all know that only the pre-1974 county boundaries count.
    1890

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isle_of_Wight#Modern_history
  • This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm

    You're welcome.

    It won't be the last delay or overrun either. Original budget and programme was a fantasy.
    What have you done with my Crossrail, CR?!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774
    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    Has there ever been a female MP from Herefordshire ?
    No.
    It did when it was Hereford and Worcester
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    Has there ever been a female MP from Herefordshire ?
    No.
    It did when it was Hereford and Worcester
    Herefordshire is not Hereford and Worcester, in the same way London is not Greater London.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,774


    Tory candidate for Wakefield in a spot of bother over ill advised social media posts aimed at his opponent.

    I am not sure this is as good as your earlier coup.

    Calvert said something uncomplimentary about Mary Creagh NINE years ago.

    He said "I can't believe just how shocking Mary Creagh looks on TV. Obviously the BBC make up dept don’t work on Sunday.” on 8 August 2010

    Is that it? Or is there more ?
    It isn't, but the stream of candidates in bother (most of whom are old enough to know better) is fairly steady.

    Local party are reviewing his position, apparently.

    The stuff by the Labour candidate in West Derby is much worse, but he's 'been on a journey' and Liverpool Labour is full of dim Trots, so he'll probably get away with it.
    We are in danger of total false equivalence in some of this stuff. Making one or two dodgy comments / jokes years ago is totally different ball game to people having a long.history of anti-Semitic comments or the alleged stuff around the Cairns mate rape trial story.

    e.g. the labour MP in the stoke area that made some snide comments about other parts of stoke and stuff like that, i don't care about.
    That guy in Liverpool however does sound like a nasty piece of work.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    EGG LAYS A HUNCH ALERT

    The report they wouldn’t publish, did recommendation in it suggest database’s and systems parties put together to profile and target voters is a key risk, and publishing would have drawn attention to it threatening election plan?

    There have been references to the super system Cummings has built to win this election, but each time its caveated barely half a dozen people can get into it, it is extremely secure etc
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Charles said:

    For people who wonder what cuts through to the ordinary voters, this was from Ashcroft's focus group.

    A final quickfire round. What do we actually know about the leaders? Impressions of Jo Swinson remained sketchy: “Er, she’s a lady;” “Has a young child;” “Was a junior minister in the coalition;” “Has a Labrador.”

    Boris? “Lives in Islington;” “Had a big fight with his girlfriend;” “Went to Eton;” “Doesn’t know how many children he has;” “Lied to the Queen;” “Wrote a novel called Seventy-Two Virgins;” “There was a scandal with a pig.” How will you feel if you wake up on 13th December and he’s still Prime Minister? “Thank God;” “Well, here we are again;” “There will be riots outside the Co-op. I might even be there;” “I’d go to Europe like a shot, but we won’t be allowed to.”

    And Mr. Corbyn? “Went to Glastonbury;” “Has an allotment;” “He cycles everywhere;” “Vegetarian;” “He had a thing with Diane Abbott. A tryst, I think they called it;” “Went to a private school;” “He has a cat called El Gato who comes when he sings Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree.”

    Corbyn's cat sure has strange sexual predilections.
    I thought we all did that?
    🤭Maybe I’m the odd one out.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    We all know that only the pre-1974 county boundaries count.
    1890

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isle_of_Wight#Modern_history
    Pre 1965 - when Middlesex was abolished.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477

    Just been targetted with a tory fb ad with boris. My take away, bloody hell he looks old and tired these days.

    He often looks ill when on telly
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    A week is a long time in politics, 7 hours a long time in election mode, and the Tories have stormed the last two days.

    Boris has nailed today as win with his promise and clarity on customs.
  • More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    Perhaps they've noticed that local papers are (in most places) dying on their arse, while the numbers listening to a typical local radio station are tiny (you need to be on a lot of local radio shows to equal one Radio 2 soundbite).

    Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.

    Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.

    Stephen Bush in today's NewStatesman says that Labour are prioritising a strategy for maximising coverage in local newspapers and regional TV.

    Tories better get a grip on this one.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    Voter on ITV News "Boris Johnson has always done what he says he's going to do"

    Eh? So which ditch is it then?
  • AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    We're all angry about very particular things.
  • IanB2 said:


    Tory candidate for Wakefield in a spot of bother over ill advised social media posts aimed at his opponent.

    I am not sure this is as good as your earlier coup.

    Calvert said something uncomplimentary about Mary Creagh NINE years ago.

    He said "I can't believe just how shocking Mary Creagh looks on TV. Obviously the BBC make up dept don’t work on Sunday.” on 8 August 2010

    Is that it? Or is there more ?
    It isn't, but the stream of candidates in bother (most of whom are old enough to know better) is fairly steady.

    Local party are reviewing his position, apparently.

    The stuff by the Labour candidate in West Derby is much worse, but he's 'been on a journey' and Liverpool Labour is full of dim Trots, so he'll probably get away with it.
    We are in danger of total false equivalence in some of this stuff. Making one or two dodgy comments / jokes years ago is totally different ball game to people having a long.history of anti-Semitic comments or the alleged stuff around the Cairns mate rape trial story.

    e.g. the labour MP in the stoke area that made some snide comments about other parts of stoke and stuff like that, i don't care about.
    That guy in Liverpool however does sound like a nasty piece of work.
    For me, it is always if there is a pattern.

    If it is couple of tweets / likes / shares, especially from years ago, and little "real world" evidence to corroborate that is their views, then jog on.

    However, if there is a clear pattern of particular anti-semite, Islamophobic, etc type posts, and they have happily shared platforms with similar known dodgy types, etc then I have a problem.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    Perhaps they've noticed that local papers are (in most places) dying on their arse, while the numbers listening to a typical local radio station are tiny (you need to be on a lot of local radio shows to equal one Radio 2 soundbite).

    Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.

    Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.

    Stephen Bush in today's NewStatesman says that Labour are prioritising a strategy for maximising coverage in local newspapers and regional TV.

    Tories better get a grip on this one.
    Labour: a 1970s party with a 1970s approach to media?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154

    AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    We're all angry about very particular things.
    Indeed yes. Death to uncivilised bastards who put pineapple on their pizza!
  • ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    We're all angry about very particular things.
    Indeed yes. Death to uncivilised bastards who put pineapple on their pizza!
    Something I think most of us can agree on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.

    I'm working on a plot showing the polling averages in the 50 days leading up to the election. So far Labour's curve looks eerily familiar, lol.
    Cool stuff. Tories are not being as triumphant as last time, and from that one can see why.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815


    Tory candidate for Wakefield in a spot of bother over ill advised social media posts aimed at his opponent.

    I am not sure this is as good as your earlier coup.

    Calvert said something uncomplimentary about Mary Creagh NINE years ago.

    He said "I can't believe just how shocking Mary Creagh looks on TV. Obviously the BBC make up dept don’t work on Sunday.” on 8 August 2010

    Is that it? Or is there more ?
    It isn't, but the stream of candidates in bother (most of whom are old enough to know better) is fairly steady.

    Local party are reviewing his position, apparently.

    The stuff by the Labour candidate in West Derby is much worse, but he's 'been on a journey' and Liverpool Labour is full of dim Trots, so he'll probably get away with it.

    Well after nine years and 2 hard fought campaigns, if that's the most egregious offence he's committed I think he might be OK.

    It's a case of 'just one more push' for the tories in Wakefield. I was balls deep (for me) on labour in 2017, having had insider information from the Labour team I was certain it would go blue.

    A couple of days before the election a poster here (David Herdson??) foretold an unexpected labour hold - the canvass returns he'd seen from the tory camp meant that they'd thrown the towel in. I wished I'd changed my position but I was silly and lost badly. It wasn't a brexit election after all and remainer Creagh won well.

    No idea whether to avoid this rerun, or to back Mary "Houdini" Creagh to do what the labour candidates have been doing in Wakefield for 30 years and hang on again.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    It’s a really good piece and for some reason free to non subscribers.

    It’s an interesting question as to whether we’d be brighter if we ditched online and went back to reading books and listening to vinyl, or live music.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Brilliant interview with Ken Clarke.

    The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”

    ......

    He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”

    He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/saturday-interview-ken-clarke-q2t8v0qm2

    Very sad to hear David Gauke is having to stand down.... if only TMay could have cut off the careers of those like Private Francois and that Bridgen oik.
    I'm not sorry about Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb, Justine Greening, Philip Lee going. They brought it on themselves.

    Certainly, I'm sorry about Clarke, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin etc.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    Has there ever been a female MP from Herefordshire ?
    No.
    It did when it was Hereford and Worcester
    Herefordshire is not Hereford and Worcester, in the same way London is not Greater London.
    London is Greater London.
  • AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    It’s a really good piece and for some reason free to non subscribers.

    It’s an interesting question as to whether we’d be brighter if we ditched online and went back to reading books and listening to vinyl, or live music.
    We would certainly have better concentration skills I reckon.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    Here's a little theory on the debates. I don't actually think it's likely, but think it's possible.

    Corbyn and Johnson's people have clearly made great play with ITV and the BBC that it's head-to-head or they don't show.

    If they had a free hand, would the broadcasters design it as head to head? Probably not for three reasons. Firstly, it's poor TV - male, stale and pale, probably both being pretty cautious. There's nobody in there to mix it up - a splash of colour; a battle on multiple fronts. Secondly, it's legally risky - Rule 6 of the Broadcasting Code has special requirements around election impartiality including "appropriate coverage" to parties with "significant views and perspectives". So where's the Remain voice in an election explicitly called to get a majority for a way forward on Brexit? The revoke and remain view is shared by a lot of people and is unrepresented in the head-to-head which is Leave on my deal vs Leave on MY deal (probably - TBC). Thirdly, ITV and BBC types are the metropolitan elite - notwithstanding the televisual aspects and legal aspects, quite a few will be personally uncomfortable about this whole situation.

    So possibly you wait until the 11th hour - literally right before the debate - and say "Jeremy! Boris! So sorry chaps, but the bloody lawyers say we've got to put in a third podium. Awfully sorry and all that; I was livid but what could I do?" You put them in an unbelievably tricky position - do you walk when faced with debating with a woman?

    As I say, I don't actually think this is a probable scenario. But wouldn't totally rule it out.

    Of course Farage would argue that there's no voice for Leave.....
  • Sean_F said:

    Brilliant interview with Ken Clarke.

    The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”

    ......

    He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”

    He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/saturday-interview-ken-clarke-q2t8v0qm2

    Very sad to hear David Gauke is having to stand down.... if only TMay could have cut off the careers of those like Private Francois and that Bridgen oik.
    I'm not sorry about Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb, Justine Greening, Philip Lee going. They brought it on themselves.

    Certainly, I'm sorry about Clarke, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin etc.
    The lights are going out across the Conservative Party, they may not be lit again for some time.
  • ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    PaulM said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    Has there ever been a female MP from Herefordshire ?
    No.
    It did when it was Hereford and Worcester
    Herefordshire is not Hereford and Worcester, in the same way London is not Greater London.
    London is Greater London.
    Transport for Greater London :lol:
  • ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    We're all angry about very particular things.
    Indeed yes. Death to uncivilised bastards who put pineapple on their pizza!
    Is that you, TSE? :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    IanB2 said:


    Tory candidate for Wakefield in a spot of bother over ill advised social media posts aimed at his opponent.

    I am not sure this is as good as your earlier coup.

    Calvert said something uncomplimentary about Mary Creagh NINE years ago.

    He said "I can't believe just how shocking Mary Creagh looks on TV. Obviously the BBC make up dept don’t work on Sunday.” on 8 August 2010

    Is that it? Or is there more ?
    It isn't, but the stream of candidates in bother (most of whom are old enough to know better) is fairly steady.

    Local party are reviewing his position, apparently.

    The stuff by the Labour candidate in West Derby is much worse, but he's 'been on a journey' and Liverpool Labour is full of dim Trots, so he'll probably get away with it.
    We are in danger of total false equivalence in some of this stuff. Making one or two dodgy comments / jokes years ago is totally different ball game to people having a long.history of anti-Semitic comments or the alleged stuff around the Cairns mate rape trial story.

    e.g. the labour MP in the stoke area that made some snide comments about other parts of stoke and stuff like that, i don't care about.
    That guy in Liverpool however does sound like a nasty piece of work.
    For me, it is always if there is a pattern.

    If it is couple of tweets / likes / shares, especially from years ago, and little "real world" evidence to corroborate that is their views, then jog on.

    However, if there is a clear pattern of particular anti-semite, Islamophobic, etc type posts, and they have happily shared platforms with similar known dodgy types, etc then I have a problem.
    That seems pretty reasonable. Everybody will have some things that are not great, it doesn't mean they are irredeemable - it's why the demand for resignations when something emerges, even if said person apologises and it was a long time ago, is not useful, as well as indicating apparently people cannot ever be forgiven - but when it's a pattern? That requires more to forgive, particularly if an opponent would not be forgiven for it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    It’s a really good piece and for some reason free to non subscribers.

    It’s an interesting question as to whether we’d be brighter if we ditched online and went back to reading books and listening to vinyl, or live music.
    It’s actually quite relaxing going analogue once in a while.
    You get more sleep.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,477
    algarkirk said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    We all know that only the pre-1974 county boundaries count.
    1890

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isle_of_Wight#Modern_history
    Pre 1965 - when Middlesex was abolished.

    Everyone knows that the real counties were before 1931 when the reckless modernisers got rid of county exclaves.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_shire_stone
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    algarkirk said:

    MattW said:

    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Lift up your head and grin
    Lift up your head Long-Bailey
    Poor girl you're bound to win

    Mmmm. Find 2 shorts planks and cut them in half vertically, rather.
    She does not remind you of Roy Jenkins or Dennis Healey in the way of top Labour material. If my life depended upon choosing between RLB and Laura Pidcock - who must have a future on Radio 4 comedy and the Edinburgh fringe - I would choose RLB.
    TudorRose said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    YouGov must be being selective from their ever growing panel as to who gets VI questions nowadays. I haven’t been asked for ages. I wonder what metric they are using and whether this affects their findings.

    They are probably becoming more successful in finding ways to weed out the political obsessives of the sort who contribute to this site and who are utterly unrepresentative of the general population, much as though we may kid ourselves otherwise.
    Sad but probably true.

    Meanwhile, trivia, which is the only English County never to have elected a female MP?
    Rutland?
    Yes. Rutland and IOW are the obvious choices and the IOW is currently claiming that title. Although Rutland appears also to qualify so the IOW, and my question, aren’t actually on the money.
    Is the IoW a county? I always thought it was part of Hampshire.
    Showing your age, since it broke free from Hampshire in 1974
    We all know that only the pre-1974 county boundaries count.
    If we go by that criteria, Westmorland has also never had a female MP.
    Be careful; next we'll be into Ridings and Parts if we go down that route.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873

    More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    Perhaps they've noticed that local papers are (in most places) dying on their arse, while the numbers listening to a typical local radio station are tiny (you need to be on a lot of local radio shows to equal one Radio 2 soundbite).

    Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.

    Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.

    Stephen Bush in today's NewStatesman says that Labour are prioritising a strategy for maximising coverage in local newspapers and regional TV.

    Tories better get a grip on this one.
    Considering they have been pushing for an election for months they have seemed very unprepared and easily bumped off message.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    Sean_F said:

    Brilliant interview with Ken Clarke.

    The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”

    ......

    He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”

    He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/saturday-interview-ken-clarke-q2t8v0qm2

    Very sad to hear David Gauke is having to stand down.... if only TMay could have cut off the careers of those like Private Francois and that Bridgen oik.
    I'm not sorry about Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb, Justine Greening, Philip Lee going. They brought it on themselves.

    Certainly, I'm sorry about Clarke, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin etc.
    The lights are going out across the Conservative Party, they may not be lit again for some time.
    The Conservatives look set to win a hefty vote share.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.

    I'm working on a plot showing the polling averages in the 50 days leading up to the election. So far Labour's curve looks eerily familiar, lol.
    Cool stuff. Tories are not being as triumphant as last time, and from that one can see why.
    Theory: Whenever the media gives the overwhelming impression that an electoral outcome can't happen, there are two significant effects that make it more likely to happen:

    (1) People who are in a general populist rage against the media and others go "Well **** you then, if you're against it, I'm voting for it".

    (2) People who don't believe that outcome is going to happen, or even necessarily want it to happen, feel free to indulge their feelings or hobby horses by voting in the "impossible" direction.

    Result: 2015 Con Maj, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Trump, 2017 Almost Corbyn.

    Not being seen as nailed on in the media is paradoxically a good thing for the Conservatives in this election...
  • Meanwhile, the cool kids in charge of Lab's social media push have had a Friday tizer too many:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1192872515779125256

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    kle4 said:

    More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.

    Perhaps they've noticed that local papers are (in most places) dying on their arse, while the numbers listening to a typical local radio station are tiny (you need to be on a lot of local radio shows to equal one Radio 2 soundbite).

    Seems to me you're also quite likely to get thrown a curveball about the closure of a maternity unit in the cottage hospital a decade ago, whereas national media questions may be hostile but are much more predictable and susceptible to a prepared line.

    Not saying I condone the Tory approach, but it isn't necessarily stupid.

    Stephen Bush in today's NewStatesman says that Labour are prioritising a strategy for maximising coverage in local newspapers and regional TV.

    Tories better get a grip on this one.
    Considering they have been pushing for an election for months they have seemed very unprepared and easily bumped off message.
    They prepared for a “Deal or No Deal” election. Selling a concrete deal is a *lot* harder.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    egg said:

    A week is a long time in politics, 7 hours a long time in election mode, and the Tories have stormed the last two days.

    Boris has nailed today as win with his promise and clarity on customs.
    Which were then shown to be lies but who care he can say what he wants
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827
    nichomar said:

    egg said:

    A week is a long time in politics, 7 hours a long time in election mode, and the Tories have stormed the last two days.

    Boris has nailed today as win with his promise and clarity on customs.
    Which were then shown to be lies but who care he can say what he wants
    Whoosh! :D
  • Good evening all. Not obvious how Gauke can win his constituency standing as an independent.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    blueblue said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.

    I'm working on a plot showing the polling averages in the 50 days leading up to the election. So far Labour's curve looks eerily familiar, lol.
    Cool stuff. Tories are not being as triumphant as last time, and from that one can see why.
    Theory: Whenever the media gives the overwhelming impression that an electoral outcome can't happen, there are two significant effects that make it more likely to happen:

    (1) People who are in a general populist rage against the media and others go "Well **** you then, if you're against it, I'm voting for it".

    (2) People who don't believe that outcome is going to happen, or even necessarily want it to happen, feel free to indulge their feelings or hobby horses by voting in the "impossible" direction.

    Result: 2015 Con Maj, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Trump, 2017 Almost Corbyn.

    Not being seen as nailed on in the media is paradoxically a good thing for the Conservatives in this election...
    That would be slightly hilarious.
  • Meanwhile, the cool kids in charge of Lab's social media push have had a Friday tizer too many:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1192872515779125256

    The zany fun they must have in the Labour social media office. And Friday is Whacky Tacky Tie Day too, I understand, so the LOLZ must've been almost unbearable today.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    egg said:

    A week is a long time in politics, 7 hours a long time in election mode, and the Tories have stormed the last two days.

    Boris has nailed today as win with his promise and clarity on customs.
    I take it you were being funny .

    The customs and NI was yet another lie by Bozo .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,873
    Sean_F said:

    Sean_F said:

    Brilliant interview with Ken Clarke.

    The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”

    ......

    He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”

    He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/saturday-interview-ken-clarke-q2t8v0qm2

    Very sad to hear David Gauke is having to stand down.... if only TMay could have cut off the careers of those like Private Francois and that Bridgen oik.
    I'm not sorry about Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb, Justine Greening, Philip Lee going. They brought it on themselves.

    Certainly, I'm sorry about Clarke, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin etc.
    The lights are going out across the Conservative Party, they may not be lit again for some time.
    The Conservatives look set to win a hefty vote share.
    Winning a hefty share does not mean much depending on what others get, particularly when they have no allies anymore. It's still looking relatively good for then, but if it does go poorly, as it very much might, I don't think technically being the most popular party in the UK will be of great comfort to them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,827
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.

    I'm working on a plot showing the polling averages in the 50 days leading up to the election. So far Labour's curve looks eerily familiar, lol.
    Cool stuff. Tories are not being as triumphant as last time, and from that one can see why.
    Early days, just a bit of fun etc. :D
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    We need Sturgeon on the telly more - every time voters see that hectoring extremist means more votes for CON!
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Ave_it said:

    We need Sturgeon on the telly more - every time voters see that hectoring extremist means more votes for CON!

    Ave it on the money as usual.. except where Watford are concerned....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,359

    Sean_F said:

    Brilliant interview with Ken Clarke.

    The election is impossible to call but Mr Clarke says: “If I had to stake my life on it I think it will produce a hung parliament.” He has not decided who to support on December 12. “I’ve voted Conservative every general election in my life and I am a natural Conservative but at the moment the party has gone so right-wing I shall probably hesitate a bit, I’ll make my mind up the night before.” He is impressed by Ruth Edwards, the Tory candidate in Rushcliffe. “If some fire-breathing right-wing idiot had been selected to replace me that would have rather simplified my choice.”

    ......

    He (Clarke) grimaces when we mention the current cabinet. “It’s not the greatest.” Nor is he an admirer of Boris Johnson, who backed him years ago to become leader. “It’s this crash bang wallop personal approach to government that isn’t working. It was bizarre taking the whip away from me.” He doesn’t care, however, that Mr Johnson didn’t reinstate it before he left. “It doesn’t make a tuppence difference. I carried on sitting on the Conservative benches. I regard myself as a Conservative.”

    He is more concerned for others who lost the whip. “I am very angry about the way he has terminated the career of younger people in mid-career. He has allowed his apparatchiks to turn it into a bit of a purge of the moderate wing. I deeply disagree with the way he has treated David Gauke. It is quite appalling. Amber Rudd is potential prime minister material; to end her career is dreadful.”

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/saturday-interview-ken-clarke-q2t8v0qm2

    Very sad to hear David Gauke is having to stand down.... if only TMay could have cut off the careers of those like Private Francois and that Bridgen oik.
    I'm not sorry about Dominic Grieve, Guto Bebb, Justine Greening, Philip Lee going. They brought it on themselves.

    Certainly, I'm sorry about Clarke, Hammond, Gauke, Letwin etc.
    The lights are going out across the Conservative Party, they may not be lit again for some time.
    The Europhile headbangers are going out across the Consrvative Party, they may not be missed for some time.....

    Or ever.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    humbugger said:

    Good evening all. Not obvious how Gauke can win his constituency standing as an independent.
    Maybe MPs get a better pay-off when they are defeated than when they merely resign?
  • humbugger said:

    Good evening all. Not obvious how Gauke can win his constituency standing as an independent.
    He probably can't. But, equally, why go gently into that good night?
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    nichomar said:

    egg said:

    A week is a long time in politics, 7 hours a long time in election mode, and the Tories have stormed the last two days.

    Boris has nailed today as win with his promise and clarity on customs.
    Which were then shown to be lies but who care he can say what he wants
    His opponents trying to get a mantra he can’t be trusted, where is this evidence he lied on ire to mainland customs, what experts who explain Boris was right say west to east.
    If he simply lied on this one it would be massive blunder “Rest of world knows your deal better than you” the fact it’s not monumental gaff today is because it’s west east movement not east west.

    I don’t think I can explain it more clearly, but some people sealed in a bubble don’t want to know honest truth at election time. 😕. Not going to stop me playing it straight in my posts though.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Ave_it said:

    We need Sturgeon on the telly more - every time voters see that hectoring extremist means more votes for CON!

    Just seen a clip on Sky News where Beth Rigby asked Sturgeon "wouldn't Scottish voters wanting to escape Brexit be better off voting Labour to get a second referendum?"

    Interesting that Rigby suggested that voters ought to vote Labour when if they really don't like Brexit they could just vote Lib Dem.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    Swing from SNP to the LDs in Scotland with Yougov

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192814543380062213?s=20
  • camel said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all. Not obvious how Gauke can win his constituency standing as an independent.
    Maybe MPs get a better pay-off when they are defeated than when they merely resign?
    I thought this was eliminated after 2015 such that resettlement grant is payable regardless of whether you're defeated or retire?
  • HYUFD said:

    Swing from SNP to the LDs in Scotland with Yougov

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192814543380062213?s=20

    Lofl!
  • blueblue said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.

    I'm working on a plot showing the polling averages in the 50 days leading up to the election. So far Labour's curve looks eerily familiar, lol.
    Cool stuff. Tories are not being as triumphant as last time, and from that one can see why.
    Theory: Whenever the media gives the overwhelming impression that an electoral outcome can't happen, there are two significant effects that make it more likely to happen:

    (1) People who are in a general populist rage against the media and others go "Well **** you then, if you're against it, I'm voting for it".

    (2) People who don't believe that outcome is going to happen, or even necessarily want it to happen, feel free to indulge their feelings or hobby horses by voting in the "impossible" direction.

    Result: 2015 Con Maj, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Trump, 2017 Almost Corbyn.

    Not being seen as nailed on in the media is paradoxically a good thing for the Conservatives in this election...
    On that basis couldn't you argue that people will decide to vote for Swinson and Revoke?
  • HYUFD said:

    Swing from SNP to the LDs in Scotland with Yougov

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192814543380062213?s=20

    I think you've buried the lead there.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    camel said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all. Not obvious how Gauke can win his constituency standing as an independent.
    Maybe MPs get a better pay-off when they are defeated than when they merely resign?
    Yep £22,000 or so better - which was confirmed earlier this week as some MP is switching constituency and doesn't qualify for it.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    HYUFD said:

    Swing from SNP to the LDs in Scotland with Yougov

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192814543380062213?s=20

    To be honest it’s a swing to the LDs from everybody but the Brexit Party
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    tlg86 said:

    Ave_it said:

    We need Sturgeon on the telly more - every time voters see that hectoring extremist means more votes for CON!

    Just seen a clip on Sky News where Beth Rigby asked Sturgeon "wouldn't Scottish voters wanting to escape Brexit be better off voting Labour to get a second referendum?"

    Interesting that Rigby suggested that voters ought to vote Labour when if they really don't like Brexit they could just vote Lib Dem.
    I don't know why Sky presenters just go the whole hog and wear LAB rosettes! Their coverage is so biased in favour of LAB.

    Most people in Scotland don't want independence. In the CON held seats it is really only CON v SNP and most of those will vote CON like last time.

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    Meanwhile, the cool kids in charge of Lab's social media push have had a Friday tizer too many:

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1192872515779125256

    The zany fun they must have in the Labour social media office. And Friday is Whacky Tacky Tie Day too, I understand, so the LOLZ must've been almost unbearable today.
    That’s so embarrassing by Harry Cole. Harry Cole doesn’t understand how 2019 election works if he thinks that mere slither of blue ahead of Labour is win. With green and red bar charts that big it’s a clear Conservative loss!

    But then hacks aren’t associated with tiger on a Friday, nor is it Diet Pepsi in that open can he’s nursing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in the North East, the West Midlands and Wales

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192838122838614022?s=20

    Have you seen the spreadsheet I've put together which plugs this data into the Flavible regional seat forecasts?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    AndyJS said:

    Respect to Ken Clarke for never having been online. He hasn't missed much apart from a lot of people being angry over nothing in particular. (Not referring to this site).

    It’s a really good piece and for some reason free to non subscribers.

    It’s an interesting question as to whether we’d be brighter if we ditched online and went back to reading books and listening to vinyl, or live music.
    Politics wouldn't be so immediate and quite so polarised. Sadly we can't go backwards though
  • NEW THREAD

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    tlg86 said:

    Ave_it said:

    We need Sturgeon on the telly more - every time voters see that hectoring extremist means more votes for CON!

    Just seen a clip on Sky News where Beth Rigby asked Sturgeon "wouldn't Scottish voters wanting to escape Brexit be better off voting Labour to get a second referendum?"

    Interesting that Rigby suggested that voters ought to vote Labour when if they really don't like Brexit they could just vote Lib Dem.
    It’s no wonder Beth and Tory Bunter don’t get on.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    The Southeast has the biggest swing from the Tories to the LDs and is the only region with no swing from Labour to the Tories

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192822695412584452?s=20
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965
    HYUFD said:

    Swing from SNP to the LDs in Scotland with Yougov

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192814543380062213?s=20

    What a ridiculous way to use the term 'swing'.
  • Ave_it said:

    This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm

    You're welcome.

    It won't be the last delay or overrun either. Original budget and programme was a fantasy.
    Boris should cancel HS2 now - then we can spend more money on other better projects and the voters will love it!

    Too late to cancel Crossrail although it should never have been started.

    Crossrail is basically finished. It's just in peak systems integration phase right now and troubleshooting.

    Want to know why the programme keeps extending?

    It assumes every test, test case and piece of software will be passed right first time. No Board or Government will accept 'planning for failure' so each rebaseline of the plan assumes everything will be an absolute success (despite the fact the real world never performs exactly as the design intended) and then act surprised when a failure requires a design and software fix - and sometimes a build fix too that then needs procuring - which punts out the programme.

    Crossrail is trying to reconcile four different signalling systems with brand new train software. Expect a lot more of these.
  • eek said:

    camel said:

    humbugger said:

    Good evening all. Not obvious how Gauke can win his constituency standing as an independent.
    Maybe MPs get a better pay-off when they are defeated than when they merely resign?
    Yep £22,000 or so better - which was confirmed earlier this week as some MP is switching constituency and doesn't qualify for it.
    Do you have a link for that, please? In 2017, I am sure they'd moved to resettlement grant payable regardless of defeat or retirement. It wouldn't shock me if they'd switched again, but I'd not heard it.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    AndyJS said:
    TY - noticeably earlier declaration times in 2017 - let's hope it stays like that this year

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749

    NEW THREAD

    Bit harsh considering HY just spent fifteen minutes posting all those old polls to this thread. It’s not that he gets paid for it or anything. 🥺
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,278
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    Biggest swing from Labour to the Tories in the North East, the West Midlands and Wales

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192838122838614022?s=20

    Have you seen the spreadsheet I've put together which plugs this data into the Flavible regional seat forecasts?
    Will have a look
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,344
    nico67 said:

    egg said:

    A week is a long time in politics, 7 hours a long time in election mode, and the Tories have stormed the last two days.

    Boris has nailed today as win with his promise and clarity on customs.
    I take it you were being funny .

    The customs and NI was yet another lie by Bozo .
    To whom was he lying? Which of the three statements was a lie?

    He’s a bigger liar than Trump!
  • This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm

    You're welcome.

    It won't be the last delay or overrun either. Original budget and programme was a fantasy.
    What have you done with my Crossrail, CR?!
    You might enjoy this:

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Qi046Xn6lA

  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    nico67 said:

    egg said:

    A week is a long time in politics, 7 hours a long time in election mode, and the Tories have stormed the last two days.

    Boris has nailed today as win with his promise and clarity on customs.
    I take it you were being funny .

    The customs and NI was yet another lie by Bozo .
    I’m playing it straight on here, Boris talking west to east movement.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947

    Just been targetted with a tory fb ad with boris. My take away, bloody hell he looks old and tired these days.

    He looks like a pig in my opinion. Sounds like one too. When he speaks I tend to hear "oink oink". It's not great.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    blueblue said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    We keep being told all the reasons 2019 will not be like 2017, but I must say seeing the regional voting polling floating around today I do get a sense of deja vu. Maybe I'm recalling wrong but I swear very similar things were seen then.

    I'm working on a plot showing the polling averages in the 50 days leading up to the election. So far Labour's curve looks eerily familiar, lol.
    Cool stuff. Tories are not being as triumphant as last time, and from that one can see why.
    Theory: Whenever the media gives the overwhelming impression that an electoral outcome can't happen, there are two significant effects that make it more likely to happen:

    (1) People who are in a general populist rage against the media and others go "Well **** you then, if you're against it, I'm voting for it".

    (2) People who don't believe that outcome is going to happen, or even necessarily want it to happen, feel free to indulge their feelings or hobby horses by voting in the "impossible" direction.

    Result: 2015 Con Maj, 2016 Brexit, 2016 Trump, 2017 Almost Corbyn.

    Not being seen as nailed on in the media is paradoxically a good thing for the Conservatives in this election...
    It's the Nate Silver paradox.

    Bet against the pundit class.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,894
    edited November 2019
    I've not reached the author of the next piece but it looks to be a goodie, I've got it 1-2 Meeks, 4-1 Nabavi, 5-1 Cyclefree, 10-1 Herdson.

    Good piece @Cyclefree ! Thought it was genuinely from Meeks though lol
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Gabs2 said:

    SunnyJim said:

    THE NURSE TAX

    Is Boris fucking mad? All going too well, why don't we mix it up a bit chaps with this little hand grenade??

    https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/policies-and-guidance/tory-nhs-visa-announcement-shaded-by-nurse-tax-concerns-08-11-2019/


    ...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...

    Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
    https://twitter.com/MrHickmott/status/1192756012924715008
    More expensive for Portuguese nurses but much cheaper for Canadian or Philippino ones.
    One has to admire the Tories. 2 years ago we had to wait for the manifesto before learning of the dementia tax. This time they're giving it to us in advance. It is awfully kind of them.
    For cutting the price of a visa for the vast majority of incoming nurses? Or are you demanding cheaper visas for middle income Europeans than low income Africans and Asians?
    I see no good reason for imposing a visa cost of nearly £500 on nurses wishing to come and work here from the EU.

    Nor do I see a good reason for encouraging the loss of nurses from much poorer countries than ours.
    Do you believe that all immigrant nurses should pay the same regardless of nationality?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Old-Bailey. One for the legal eagles there.
    Rebecca Bailey-Cream. One for the alkies there.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm

    That’s what happens when you let Labour manage infrastructure projects
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kinabalu said:

    On topic -

    Of the 3 young Corbynite women my clear favourite is Pidcock. She oozes a certain something which to me looks like star power.

    I backed her at big odds but she is much shorter now and shortening further with each passing day. Get on quick or risk missing the boat.

    She’s the one who went to Venice on a romantic break vs vote against the welfare reforms?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    It would be a travesty if he were fired for those. They are boorish but no more than that.
This discussion has been closed.