Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
They probably can't even use the word "effect" grammatically.
My dad told me the difference grammatically between effect and affect just before his death! It was only this year and I thank him for his understanding of my gramatically shortcomings! He is someone I miss very much and I would holiday with him in the canaries a couple of times a year! I am reminded of him and his eccentricities, every day I am here! But life goes on and I can do things like perving at the women on beeches without reprimand!
I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).
Our tax system desperately requires another Lawson committed to simplification and efficiency. But with both the main parties promising to spend money on pretty much everything it seems inevitable that the overall tax burden is going to increase regardless of the result making sensible reform much more difficult.
That is the silly thing. I'm pretty sure that a more rational tax system could raise more if the perverse incentives and disincentives were removed.
If they do get another referendum what happens if they don’t win it . What happens to the party and the cause itself .
I like Nicola Sturgeon and wish Scotland the very best if it decides to become independent but it’s a huge gamble now but perhaps it is now or never .
You are kidding, right? If they lose they will be asking again in five years time.
Have the independence vote in England. That's the country in the UK that doesn't have it's own parliament and has been forced to stay in the EU against the choice of both it's people and MP's.
I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
It’s almost certainly a deliberate shitpost.
In trying to get it to go viral (via this method) the LDs want to subliminally communicate to voters that they will invest in skills and be good for your wallets.
I read it as they will neglect skills and go for my wallet, which is probably more accurate.
It’s interesting that rather than try to park yellow tanks on the blue Tory lawn they’ve instead gone for the old tired LD trick of “a penny on income tax for good cause X”.
I think they’ve rolled that out at every election since time immemorial.
First of all CR, I am on a mobile and I accidently knocked the dissaprove button! Sorry about that! Not meant at all.
With reference to the penny on income tax, this should be alarming for the Tories as it means the electorate is bored of austerity and spending is key (private polling must show the age of austerity has to go). Maybe this has driven BJ's sudden spendthrift tendencies?
No worries.
I think most of the time on here when the ‘off-topic’ button is pushed it’s done by accident when we mean to push ‘like’.
Except if you’re Sunil. Who, bless him, socially self-aware chap that he is, usually earns his flags and off-topics.
I received an off-topic flag for one of my only on topic comments of the day recently. I had assumed it was a sarcastic flag, rather than accidental.
Since I rather belatedly got a mobile which allows me to interact satisfactorily with this site, I've accidentally off-topicked a few posts. Is there a way of unflagging once you've flagged it? Apologies to anyone I've accidentally flagged. And I really don't care if a post is off-topic. What would this site be without it's occasional forays into ancient history or trains? In fact, I think it was a discussion of cheese back in 2005 that first reeled me in. Of course, politics was much less eventful ans/or terrifying in those days, so we needed a few off topics to keep ua going...
I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).
I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
It’s almost certainly a deliberate shitpost.
In trying to get it to go viral (via this method) the LDs want to subliminally communicate to voters that they will invest in skills and be good for your wallets.
I read it as they will neglect skills and go for my wallet, which is probably more accurate.
It’s interesting that rather than try to park yellow tanks on the blue Tory lawn they’ve instead gone for the old tired LD trick of “a penny on income tax for good cause X”.
I think they’ve rolled that out at every election since time immemorial.
First of all CR, I am on a mobile and I accidently knocked the dissaprove button! Sorry about that! Not meant at all.
With reference to the penny on income tax, this should be alarming for the Tories as it means the electorate is bored of austerity and spending is key (private polling must show the age of austerity has to go). Maybe this has driven BJ's sudden spendthrift tendencies?
No worries.
I think most of the time on here when the ‘off-topic’ button is pushed it’s done by accident when we mean to push ‘like’.
Except if you’re Sunil. Who, bless him, socially self-aware chap that he is, usually earns his flags and off-topics.
I received an off-topic flag for one of my only on topic comments of the day recently. I had assumed it was a sarcastic flag, rather than accidental.
Since I rather belatedly got a mobile which allows me to interact satisfactorily with this site, I've accidentally off-topicked a few posts. Is there a way of unflagging once you've flagged it? Apologies to anyone I've accidentally flagged. And I really don't care if a post is off-topic. What would this site be without it's occasional forays into ancient history or trains? In fact, I think it was a discussion of cheese back in 2005 that first reeled me in. Of course, politics was much less eventful ans/or terrifying in those days, so we needed a few off topics to keep ua going...
I've done the same thing too, fat finger syndrome. If you want to unflag, just click it again.
Talking of tax rates, I've just been looking at the tax someone would pay on a Xmas bonus. As I've complained before, at some points in the income scale the tax rates are horrendous. For example, at £50K salary, for someone with two children, the true marginal tax rate on a bonus is 64.7%.
Workings (assume a bonus of £10K):
Child benefit withdrawn: £1,788 Income tax (40%) and employee NI 2%: £4,200 Next after tax received by the employee: £4,012
But the employer also pays 13.8% NI, so that £4,012 in the pocket of the employee costs £11,380. That nice Mr Javid gets 64.7% of it.
And the real scandal is that not a single one of the parties campaigning for your vote has any intention of doing anything about this madness.
Not to worry Labour plans will result in male salaries being reduced to match female ones so far fewer people will be caught in this trap.
I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
It’s almost certainly a deliberate shitpost.
In trying to get it to go viral (via this method) the LDs want to subliminally communicate to voters that they will invest in skills and be good for your wallets.
I read it as they will neglect skills and go for my wallet, which is probably more accurate.
It’s interesting that rather than try to park yellow tanks on the blue Tory lawn they’ve instead gone for the old tired LD trick of “a penny on income tax for good cause X”.
I think they’ve rolled that out at every election since time immemorial.
First of all CR, I am on a mobile and I accidently knocked the dissaprove button! Sorry about that! Not meant at all.
With reference to the penny on income tax, this should be alarming for the Tories as it means the electorate is bored of austerity and spending is key (private polling must show the age of austerity has to go). Maybe this has driven BJ's sudden spendthrift tendencies?
No worries.
I think most of the time on here when the ‘off-topic’ button is pushed it’s done by accident when we mean to push ‘like’.
Except if you’re Sunil. Who, bless him, socially self-aware chap that he is, usually earns his flags and off-topics.
I received an off-topic flag for one of my only on topic comments of the day recently. I had assumed it was a sarcastic flag, rather than accidental.
Since I rather belatedly got a mobile which allows me to interact satisfactorily with this site, I've accidentally off-topicked a few posts. Is there a way of unflagging once you've flagged it? Apologies to anyone I've accidentally flagged. And I really don't care if a post is off-topic. What would this site be without it's occasional forays into ancient history or trains? In fact, I think it was a discussion of cheese back in 2005 that first reeled me in. Of course, politics was much less eventful ans/or terrifying in those days, so we needed a few off topics to keep ua going...
If they do get another referendum what happens if they don’t win it . What happens to the party and the cause itself .
I like Nicola Sturgeon and wish Scotland the very best if it decides to become independent but it’s a huge gamble now but perhaps it is now or never .
You are kidding, right? If they lose they will be asking again in five years time.
Have the independence vote in England. That's the country in the UK that doesn't have it's own parliament and has been forced to stay in the EU against the choice of both it's people and MP's.
If we had an English Parliament, the people of England might not perceive European integration as a threat to their identity in quite the same way.
They probably can't even use the word "effect" grammatically.
My dad told me the difference grammatically between effect and affect just before his death! It was only this year and I thank him for his understanding of my gramatically shortcomings! He is someone I miss very much and I would holiday with him in the canaries a couple of times a year! I am reminded of him and his eccentricities, every day I am here! But life goes on and I can do things like perving at the women on beeches without reprimand!
beaches. Never seen beech trees in the Canaries.
lol - plenty of bushes to be seen in Gran Canaria. You just have to visit the right places!
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Not sure how it works, but does Eddisbury count as a gain in that system?
They probably can't even use the word "effect" grammatically.
My dad told me the difference grammatically between effect and affect just before his death! It was only this year and I thank him for his understanding of my gramatically shortcomings! He is someone I miss very much and I would holiday with him in the canaries a couple of times a year! I am reminded of him and his eccentricities, every day I am here! But life goes on and I can do things like perving at the women on beeches without reprimand!
beaches. Never seen beech trees in the Canaries.
lol - plenty of bushes to be seen in Gran Canaria. You just have to visit the right places!
I once saw an actual canary in a small Canarian tree.
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Chester. Don't know if you saw my comment earlier but Con already have Stoke S
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Some of these seem hugely optimistic! Worsley?! Leigh?! Stalybridge?!
Talking of tax rates, I've just been looking at the tax someone would pay on a Xmas bonus. As I've complained before, at some points in the income scale the tax rates are horrendous. For example, at £50K salary, for someone with two children, the true marginal tax rate on a bonus is 64.7%.
Workings (assume a bonus of £10K):
Child benefit withdrawn: £1,788 Income tax (40%) and employee NI 2%: £4,200 Next after tax received by the employee: £4,012
But the employer also pays 13.8% NI, so that £4,012 in the pocket of the employee costs £11,380. That nice Mr Javid gets 64.7% of it.
And the real scandal is that not a single one of the parties campaigning for your vote has any intention of doing anything about this madness.
Over-taxation of £10k bonuses is unlikely to garner that much sympathy
It's the same on a £100 bonus.
Everywhere I've worked has paid bonuses net of tax. So, here's a £500 bonus and we'll gross it up so that you all receive the same after tax regardless of your tax rate.
Of course, if the tax was lower it would cost less for the employer, but the employee doesn't necessarily see that their bonus would have been £1500 if not for tax.
Sure, but the employer does. We will always look at the real picture when making decisions like this.
Our tax system desperately requires another Lawson committed to simplification and efficiency. But with both the main parties promising to spend money on pretty much everything it seems inevitable that the overall tax burden is going to increase regardless of the result making sensible reform much more difficult.
It is not just tax rates that hit bonuses, there are two quirks. One is that HMRC assumes your bonus is actually a pay rise so ramps up your tax code (and hence deductions). The other is that in-work benefits can be similarly impacted.
I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).
Cool. iirc somewhere there's an old betting slip with her name on it to replace Mr Corbyn (which brings us back to the headline topic). You'd probably get several times the odds now.
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Some of these seem hugely optimistic! Worsley?! Leigh?! Stalybridge?!
I doubt some of those will go in reality. Nevertheless it is only based on input from YouGov and output of Flavible.
Ironically, my sauces tell me Tom Watson has applied to be Jacob Rees-Mogg's Dawn Butler.
Duties include poaching quails eggs, ironing the Daily Telegraph, moving the Bentley out of the restricted parking bay before the traffic wardens go on duty etc. Any essential tasks that a gentleman requires doing between the hours of 4 and 7am basically.
For people who wonder what cuts through to the ordinary voters, this was from Ashcroft's focus group.
A final quickfire round. What do we actually know about the leaders? Impressions of Jo Swinson remained sketchy: “Er, she’s a lady;” “Has a young child;” “Was a junior minister in the coalition;” “Has a Labrador.”
Boris? “Lives in Islington;” “Had a big fight with his girlfriend;” “Went to Eton;” “Doesn’t know how many children he has;” “Lied to the Queen;” “Wrote a novel called Seventy-Two Virgins;” “There was a scandal with a pig.” How will you feel if you wake up on 13th December and he’s still Prime Minister? “Thank God;” “Well, here we are again;” “There will be riots outside the Co-op. I might even be there;” “I’d go to Europe like a shot, but we won’t be allowed to.”
And Mr. Corbyn? “Went to Glastonbury;” “Has an allotment;” “He cycles everywhere;” “Vegetarian;” “He had a thing with Diane Abbott. A tryst, I think they called it;” “Went to a private school;” “He has a cat called El Gato who comes when he sings Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree.”
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Or Chorley counts as a lab loss and Buckingham a con gain, but somehow here because...wait...no.
They must feel really small, circulating the vile lie that Labour had lost four antisemites in one day when the true figure was an upbeat, sunlit uplandy, hearts and flowers, life affirming three anti semites. Three! Yay! Insert smileys!!!
I doubt some of those will go in reality. Nevertheless it is only based on input from YouGov and output of Flavible.
I think it's likely to be a useful sanity check, representing the upper limit of seats that might change hands. So, if you're thinking of betting on a seat changing hands and it's not in that spreadsheet, you should double-check your reasoning.
The regional polling shows quite a high green vote . I can’t see them getting 6/7 % . I’d expect that to be down to 2/3 % tops come the election . Most of that will transfer to Labour with a little to the Lib Dems .
No doubt those who were pointing out how absurd the head to head was on the back of a poll with the Lib Dems 3% behind Labour will acknowledge that the argument is much more compelling when Labour are 2x their vote.
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Interesting. My model replicates all those gains except Wirral (W&S), Ellesmere Port, Lancs W and Chester (missing above). Ellesmere Port is very close, Lancs W close but the other three I have as comfortable Labour holds.
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Some of these seem hugely optimistic! Worsley?! Leigh?! Stalybridge?!
I doubt some of those will go in reality. Nevertheless it is only based on input from YouGov and output of Flavible.
Well, I respect your analysis over my gut-feeling - which is based on how things used to be when leafy suburbs voted blue and mines and mills voted red. I'd be amazed. But that's more a comment on my capacity to be surprised than your ability to model polls effectively.
I would add though that views of Boris Johnson in Merseyside are likely to count against the Conservatives for seats within 15 miles of Liverpool (Wirral S&W, Lancashire W, Ellesmere Port, Chester, maybe Warrington N).
I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).
For people who wonder what cuts through to the ordinary voters, this was from Ashcroft's focus group.
A final quickfire round. What do we actually know about the leaders? Impressions of Jo Swinson remained sketchy: “Er, she’s a lady;” “Has a young child;” “Was a junior minister in the coalition;” “Has a Labrador.”
Boris? “Lives in Islington;” “Had a big fight with his girlfriend;” “Went to Eton;” “Doesn’t know how many children he has;” “Lied to the Queen;” “Wrote a novel called Seventy-Two Virgins;” “There was a scandal with a pig.” How will you feel if you wake up on 13th December and he’s still Prime Minister? “Thank God;” “Well, here we are again;” “There will be riots outside the Co-op. I might even be there;” “I’d go to Europe like a shot, but we won’t be allowed to.”
And Mr. Corbyn? “Went to Glastonbury;” “Has an allotment;” “He cycles everywhere;” “Vegetarian;” “He had a thing with Diane Abbott. A tryst, I think they called it;” “Went to a private school;” “He has a cat called El Gato who comes when he sings Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree.”
Corbyn's cat sure has strange sexual predilections.
On the basis of the Yougov regionals and the flavible projection, front bench favourite Laura Pidcock loses her seat in NW Durham.
On the basis that Sir Keir Starmer is too male and too ennobled, Emily Thornbury is too aristocratic, Yvette Cooper is too centre-ist and JohnMcDonnell is too old, I suggest the next Labour leader and deputy leader will be Rebecca and Angela. Some kind of reverse forecast bet is required though because I cannot split them.
I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).
Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.
Yes. Now explain Tom Watson, or indeed why the horrendously White RLB and PB are higher up in the betting for leader, or indeed the pale, male and stale Jeremy Corbyn -- he's not even Jewish! It is almost as if Labour elections are not just box-ticking exercises.
This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
Workington Barrow Lancaster Blackpool South Hyndburn Lancs West Wirral West Wirral South Ellesmere Port Weaver Vale Crewe Warrington N Warrington S Leigh Worsley Bolton NE Oldham E Stalybridge Bury N Bury S Heywood
Not sure how it works, but does Eddisbury count as a gain in that system?
No, it's a comparison with GE2017 excluding by-elections or defections. It turned out to be Chester that was missing.
Mr. Eagles, not sure if you saw it but on the previous thread I responded to that story by suggesting voters in Wales, Scotland, and the north of England might be bemused there's so much money available for transporting spending provided it's far away.
That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .
As others have said, I think all of this "candidate you've never heard of drops out" stuff passes voters by, including Alan thingy in Wales. They seem very serious to the people who know them, and the journalists enjoy the scoop, but for Fred in Birmingham it's a "whatever" thing.
The lead is still big - on my reckoning, it needs to come down to about 7 before we get excited.
If you add in a margin of error of 3%, it could be Tories 37% Labour 33%. Or perhaps Tories 43% Labour 27%. Anyone care to put those two extremes into the electoral calculator?
This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
If you add in a margin of error of 3%, it could be Tories 37% Labour 33%. Or perhaps Tories 43% Labour 27%. Anyone care to put those two extremes into the electoral calculator?
Luckily we'll get a hundred more polls in the interim.
This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
Rebecca Bill Hailey...one for the old rockers on here
Or Rebecca Bill Bailey for those who won't come home.
Hi, Sorry I flicked not like again by accident!
I actually like RL Bailey!
She seems genuine.
She would probably be ok as leader in the wake of a heavy defeat. I still think Labour will surprise as possible largest party but well short of defeat!
This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
I would appreciate observations on how some modelling I have done to predict results for English seats using the mega YouGov data set could be improved. It uses the format published earlier by YouGov which identified Leave and Remain supporters of each party according to whom they voted for in 2017 and then gave a split of which party they are voting for now.
The basic method is to: 1. take the 2017 GE result by constituency and then notionally split the votes for each party into leave and remain using the weighted sample totals for GB as applied by YouGov in their mega poll e.g. YouGov used 2205 Lab Remain v 1032 Lab Leave 2017 voters so I assume that across GB 31.9% of 2017 Lab voters voted Leave in the referendum. 2. Compare the 2016 actual result my model predicts for each constituency using with the HOC Library actual and notional results by constituency. Then adjust the results by changing the split of Leave voters in each constituency by a uniform factor for each party. So for example if my model predicted a Leave vote of 55% and the HOC figure was 60% then the % of the 2017 Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green and Other voters who voted Leave would all be increased by 5%. 3. Then assign each group a vote in 2019 using the % which YouGov found in their mega poll. eg. 47% of 2017 Con Remain voters will still vote Con, 3% Lab, 24% LD, 1% BXP, 2% Green, 1% Other (treating the DK/DV/Refused as non voters). The split for "Other" voters was scaled up to attempt a split for England only eliminating the SNP/Plaid supporters in the YouGov polling.
This quite rough and ready model ends up predicting that Con will win 409 English seats compared to 296 in 2017. I think that is wildly overstating the actual Con result, with tactical voting being totally ignored. Nonetheless it gives a flavour of how the impact of Brexit on past party loyalties could be playing out before tactical voting comes into play, with a large number of Leave voting Labour constituencies seemingly at risk.
There are some gremlins which v2 will attempt to iron out, because at the moment where the predicted Leave % is well under the actual Leave % step 2 you can get a split of UKIP voters where (say) 110% of 2017 UKIP voters are deemed to have voted Leave and -10% to have voted Remain.
Anyway, observations on how the assumptions in the model might be tweaked for v2 would be appreciated.
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
That lead is no higher than 2016 and of course if Boris wins there will be Brexit with the Boris Deal and no EUref2 anyway
Off topic, I have to say I cannot fathom the Brexit Party's strategy in this election.
They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.
They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".
But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
I think the turnout will be interesting . That could be crucial if there’s big differences between Remain and Leave areas . We saw in the Euros generally higher turnout in Remain areas .
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
Yes, the pitchforks have been notable in their absence.
Off topic, I have to say I cannot fathom the Brexit Party's strategy in this election.
They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.
They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".
But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.
Isn't the last paragraph what Farage wants? Enough votes to be relevant to a 2020GE after the other non-Tories have cancelled Brexit.
Comments
https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14
I've got the following:
Workington
Barrow
Lancaster
Blackpool South
Hyndburn
Lancs West
Wirral West
Wirral South
Ellesmere Port
Weaver Vale
Crewe
Warrington N
Warrington S
Leigh
Worsley
Bolton NE
Oldham E
Stalybridge
Bury N
Bury S
Heywood
Some of the Tory gains look a bit optimistic, mind...
It is Rebecca Short-Trousers
Thank you
There we go.
I shall have that as my fun bet for 12 December.
Meanwhile, back on on topic.
Rebecca Long-Sighted
One for the oculists, opticians, optometrists and allied opthalmic trades there.
https://twitter.com/mattmacedonia/status/1192829984026615811/photo/1
That. Is. A. Disgrace.
One for cheap and nasty Liquor lovers
One for the chefs
Hollies song.
The Hollies being from Manchester where this election could just possibly be decided - although this is unlikely.
Duties include poaching quails eggs, ironing the Daily Telegraph, moving the Bentley out of the restricted parking bay before the traffic wardens go on duty etc. Any essential tasks that a gentleman requires doing between the hours of 4 and 7am basically.
One for the fans of a Christmas ski break.
A final quickfire round. What do we actually know about the leaders? Impressions of Jo Swinson remained sketchy: “Er, she’s a lady;” “Has a young child;” “Was a junior minister in the coalition;” “Has a Labrador.”
Boris? “Lives in Islington;” “Had a big fight with his girlfriend;” “Went to Eton;” “Doesn’t know how many children he has;” “Lied to the Queen;” “Wrote a novel called Seventy-Two Virgins;” “There was a scandal with a pig.” How will you feel if you wake up on 13th December and he’s still Prime Minister? “Thank God;” “Well, here we are again;” “There will be riots outside the Co-op. I might even be there;” “I’d go to Europe like a shot, but we won’t be allowed to.”
And Mr. Corbyn? “Went to Glastonbury;” “Has an allotment;” “He cycles everywhere;” “Vegetarian;” “He had a thing with Diane Abbott. A tryst, I think they called it;” “Went to a private school;” “He has a cat called El Gato who comes when he sings Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1192846984790626305
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1192846984790626305
I would add though that views of Boris Johnson in Merseyside are likely to count against the Conservatives for seats within 15 miles of Liverpool (Wirral S&W, Lancashire W, Ellesmere Port, Chester, maybe Warrington N).
Rebecca Long-Pork
One for the cannibals there.
On the basis of the Yougov regionals and the flavible projection, front bench favourite Laura Pidcock loses her seat in NW Durham.
On the basis that Sir Keir Starmer is too male and too ennobled, Emily Thornbury is too aristocratic, Yvette Cooper is too centre-ist and JohnMcDonnell is too old, I suggest the next Labour leader and deputy leader will be Rebecca and Angela. Some kind of reverse forecast bet is required though because I cannot split them.
Ha! Very good.
The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.
The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm
The lead is still big - on my reckoning, it needs to come down to about 7 before we get excited.
One for the people who bought houses in Abbey Wood in anticipation of Crossrail arriving there.
Remain 53
Leave 47
One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
Panelbase
17–18 Oct
GB
1,008
36%
27%
17%
Panelbase
30–31 Oct
GB
1,008
40%
29%
14%
Panelbase looks to be good for both Tories and Labour generally.
I actually like RL Bailey!
She seems genuine.
She would probably be ok as leader in the wake of a heavy defeat. I still think Labour will surprise as possible largest party but well short of defeat!
https://twitter.com/zarahsultana/status/1189665226532278272?s=20
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836
These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
Of the 3 young Corbynite women my clear favourite is Pidcock. She oozes a certain something which to me looks like star power.
I backed her at big odds but she is much shorter now and shortening further with each passing day. Get on quick or risk missing the boat.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/01/how-will-eu-referendum-and-2017-voters-cast-their-
The basic method is to:
1. take the 2017 GE result by constituency and then notionally split the votes for each party into leave and remain using the weighted sample totals for GB as applied by YouGov in their mega poll e.g. YouGov used 2205 Lab Remain v 1032 Lab Leave 2017 voters so I assume that across GB 31.9% of 2017 Lab voters voted Leave in the referendum.
2. Compare the 2016 actual result my model predicts for each constituency using with the HOC Library actual and notional results by constituency. Then adjust the results by changing the split of Leave voters in each constituency by a uniform factor for each party. So for example if my model predicted a Leave vote of 55% and the HOC figure was 60% then the % of the 2017 Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green and Other voters who voted Leave would all be increased by 5%.
3. Then assign each group a vote in 2019 using the % which YouGov found in their mega poll. eg. 47% of 2017 Con Remain voters will still vote Con, 3% Lab, 24% LD, 1% BXP, 2% Green, 1% Other (treating the DK/DV/Refused as non voters). The split for "Other" voters was scaled up to attempt a split for England only eliminating the SNP/Plaid supporters in the YouGov polling.
This quite rough and ready model ends up predicting that Con will win 409 English seats compared to 296 in 2017. I think that is wildly overstating the actual Con result, with tactical voting being totally ignored. Nonetheless it gives a flavour of how the impact of Brexit on past party loyalties could be playing out before tactical voting comes into play, with a large number of Leave voting Labour constituencies seemingly at risk.
There are some gremlins which v2 will attempt to iron out, because at the moment where the predicted Leave % is well under the actual Leave % step 2 you can get a split of UKIP voters where (say) 110% of 2017 UKIP voters are deemed to have voted Leave and -10% to have voted Remain.
Anyway, observations on how the assumptions in the model might be tweaked for v2 would be appreciated.
They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.
They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".
But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.
Give it a rest