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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    nunu2 said:



    Correct, those that it effects cant vote.

    They probably can't even use the word "effect" grammatically.
    My dad told me the difference grammatically between effect and affect just before his death! It was only this year and I thank him for his understanding of my gramatically shortcomings! He is someone I miss very much and I would holiday with him in the canaries a couple of times a year! I am reminded of him and his eccentricities, every day I am here! But life goes on and I can do things like perving at the women on beeches without reprimand! :smiley:
    beaches. Never seen beech trees in the Canaries.
  • Alistair said:

    Alistair said:

    The Scotland only part of the poll is a fairly standard result once you plug it into electoral calculus.

    Tories -10
    Lab -5
    LD +1
    SNP +14

    Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS

    I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.

    Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.

    Something about that doesn’t smell right.

    Why would so many Tories move direct to SNP with the Sword of Damocles of independence being brazenly waved over their heads?
    Apart from Angus there is little evidence of Con to SNP switching in 2017.

    Lib Dem TO Con. Yes.
    SNP to Labour. Yes
    SNP to Did Not Vote. Yes.

    SNP to Con. No.

    The Con to SNP seat switches would be driven by Lib Dem to Con voters switching back.
    Thanks.
  • AndyJS said:

    I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).

    Results:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oKkOq3OQFkSd1v4Gd3AoDN-RkfCHa99d58L0cBCWRfs/edit#gid=0

    Excellent, thanks. Nice to see Corbyn losing seats to the Tories, LibDems, SNP, PC and BXP, and not gaining a single one anywhere.

    Some of the Tory gains look a bit optimistic, mind...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Stop messing with her name!

    It is Rebecca Short-Trousers

    Thank you
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,038
    Dawn Butler running for Deputy Leader.

    There we go.
  • DavidL said:


    Our tax system desperately requires another Lawson committed to simplification and efficiency. But with both the main parties promising to spend money on pretty much everything it seems inevitable that the overall tax burden is going to increase regardless of the result making sensible reform much more difficult.

    That is the silly thing. I'm pretty sure that a more rational tax system could raise more if the perverse incentives and disincentives were removed.
  • RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    This is quite a pivotal moment for the SNP.

    If they do get another referendum what happens if they don’t win it . What happens to the party and the cause itself .

    I like Nicola Sturgeon and wish Scotland the very best if it decides to become independent but it’s a huge gamble now but perhaps it is now or never .

    You are kidding, right? If they lose they will be asking again in five years time. :D
    Have the independence vote in England. That's the country in the UK that doesn't have it's own parliament and has been forced to stay in the EU against the choice of both it's people and MP's.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    19

    I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
    It’s almost certainly a deliberate shitpost.

    In trying to get it to go viral (via this method) the LDs want to subliminally communicate to voters that they will invest in skills and be good for your wallets.
    I read it as they will neglect skills and go for my wallet, which is probably more accurate.
    It’s interesting that rather than try to park yellow tanks on the blue Tory lawn they’ve instead gone for the old tired LD trick of “a penny on income tax for good cause X”.

    I think they’ve rolled that out at every election since time immemorial.
    First of all CR, I am on a mobile and I accidently knocked the dissaprove button! Sorry about that! Not meant at all.

    With reference to the penny on income tax, this should be alarming for the Tories as it means the electorate is bored of austerity and spending is key (private polling must show the age of austerity has to go). Maybe this has driven BJ's sudden spendthrift tendencies?
    No worries.

    I think most of the time on here when the ‘off-topic’ button is pushed it’s done by accident when we mean to push ‘like’.

    Except if you’re Sunil. Who, bless him, socially self-aware chap that he is, usually earns his flags and off-topics.
    I received an off-topic flag for one of my only on topic comments of the day recently. I had assumed it was a sarcastic flag, rather than accidental.
    Since I rather belatedly got a mobile which allows me to interact satisfactorily with this site, I've accidentally off-topicked a few posts. Is there a way of unflagging once you've flagged it? Apologies to anyone I've accidentally flagged. And I really don't care if a post is off-topic. What would this site be without it's occasional forays into ancient history or trains? In fact, I think it was a discussion of cheese back in 2005 that first reeled me in. Of course, politics was much less eventful ans/or terrifying in those days, so we needed a few off topics to keep ua going...
  • Dawn Butler running for Deputy Leader.

    There we go.

    Momentum backed?
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    AndyJS said:

    I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).

    Results:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oKkOq3OQFkSd1v4Gd3AoDN-RkfCHa99d58L0cBCWRfs/edit#gid=0

    City of Durham goes LibDem!
    I shall have that as my fun bet for 12 December.

    Meanwhile, back on on topic.


    Rebecca Long-Sighted

    One for the oculists, opticians, optometrists and allied opthalmic trades there.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    I presme the PBers who quoted the original have apologised

    https://twitter.com/mattmacedonia/status/1192829984026615811/photo/1
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Cookie said:

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    19

    I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
    It’s almost certainly a deliberate shitpost.

    In trying to get it to go viral (via this method) the LDs want to subliminally communicate to voters that they will invest in skills and be good for your wallets.
    I read it as they will neglect skills and go for my wallet, which is probably more accurate.
    It’s interesting that rather than try to park yellow tanks on the blue Tory lawn they’ve instead gone for the old tired LD trick of “a penny on income tax for good cause X”.

    I think they’ve rolled that out at every election since time immemorial.
    First of all CR, I am on a mobile and I accidently knocked the dissaprove button! Sorry about that! Not meant at all.

    With reference to the penny on income tax, this should be alarming for the Tories as it means the electorate is bored of austerity and spending is key (private polling must show the age of austerity has to go). Maybe this has driven BJ's sudden spendthrift tendencies?
    No worries.

    I think most of the time on here when the ‘off-topic’ button is pushed it’s done by accident when we mean to push ‘like’.

    Except if you’re Sunil. Who, bless him, socially self-aware chap that he is, usually earns his flags and off-topics.
    I received an off-topic flag for one of my only on topic comments of the day recently. I had assumed it was a sarcastic flag, rather than accidental.
    Since I rather belatedly got a mobile which allows me to interact satisfactorily with this site, I've accidentally off-topicked a few posts. Is there a way of unflagging once you've flagged it? Apologies to anyone I've accidentally flagged. And I really don't care if a post is off-topic. What would this site be without it's occasional forays into ancient history or trains? In fact, I think it was a discussion of cheese back in 2005 that first reeled me in. Of course, politics was much less eventful ans/or terrifying in those days, so we needed a few off topics to keep ua going...
    I've done the same thing too, fat finger syndrome. If you want to unflag, just click it again.
  • Talking of tax rates, I've just been looking at the tax someone would pay on a Xmas bonus. As I've complained before, at some points in the income scale the tax rates are horrendous. For example, at £50K salary, for someone with two children, the true marginal tax rate on a bonus is 64.7%.

    Workings (assume a bonus of £10K):

    Child benefit withdrawn: £1,788
    Income tax (40%) and employee NI 2%: £4,200
    Next after tax received by the employee: £4,012

    But the employer also pays 13.8% NI, so that £4,012 in the pocket of the employee costs £11,380. That nice Mr Javid gets 64.7% of it.

    And the real scandal is that not a single one of the parties campaigning for your vote has any intention of doing anything about this madness.

    Not to worry Labour plans will result in male salaries being reduced to match female ones so far fewer people will be caught in this trap.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Cookie said:

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    19

    I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
    It’s almost certainly a deliberate shitpost.

    In trying to get it to go viral (via this method) the LDs want to subliminally communicate to voters that they will invest in skills and be good for your wallets.
    I read it as they will neglect skills and go for my wallet, which is probably more accurate.
    It’s interesting that rather than try to park yellow tanks on the blue Tory lawn they’ve instead gone for the old tired LD trick of “a penny on income tax for good cause X”.

    I think they’ve rolled that out at every election since time immemorial.
    First of all CR, I am on a mobile and I accidently knocked the dissaprove button! Sorry about that! Not meant at all.

    With reference to the penny on income tax, this should be alarming for the Tories as it means the electorate is bored of austerity and spending is key (private polling must show the age of austerity has to go). Maybe this has driven BJ's sudden spendthrift tendencies?
    No worries.

    I think most of the time on here when the ‘off-topic’ button is pushed it’s done by accident when we mean to push ‘like’.

    Except if you’re Sunil. Who, bless him, socially self-aware chap that he is, usually earns his flags and off-topics.
    I received an off-topic flag for one of my only on topic comments of the day recently. I had assumed it was a sarcastic flag, rather than accidental.
    Since I rather belatedly got a mobile which allows me to interact satisfactorily with this site, I've accidentally off-topicked a few posts. Is there a way of unflagging once you've flagged it? Apologies to anyone I've accidentally flagged. And I really don't care if a post is off-topic. What would this site be without it's occasional forays into ancient history or trains? In fact, I think it was a discussion of cheese back in 2005 that first reeled me in. Of course, politics was much less eventful ans/or terrifying in those days, so we needed a few off topics to keep ua going...
    Cheese, you say ?

    That. Is. A. Disgrace.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Rebecca Bill Hailey...one for the old rockers on here
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717

    RobD said:

    nico67 said:

    This is quite a pivotal moment for the SNP.

    If they do get another referendum what happens if they don’t win it . What happens to the party and the cause itself .

    I like Nicola Sturgeon and wish Scotland the very best if it decides to become independent but it’s a huge gamble now but perhaps it is now or never .

    You are kidding, right? If they lose they will be asking again in five years time. :D
    Have the independence vote in England. That's the country in the UK that doesn't have it's own parliament and has been forced to stay in the EU against the choice of both it's people and MP's.
    If we had an English Parliament, the people of England might not perceive European integration as a threat to their identity in quite the same way.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    nunu2 said:



    Correct, those that it effects cant vote.

    They probably can't even use the word "effect" grammatically.
    My dad told me the difference grammatically between effect and affect just before his death! It was only this year and I thank him for his understanding of my gramatically shortcomings! He is someone I miss very much and I would holiday with him in the canaries a couple of times a year! I am reminded of him and his eccentricities, every day I am here! But life goes on and I can do things like perving at the women on beeches without reprimand! :smiley:
    beaches. Never seen beech trees in the Canaries.
    lol - plenty of bushes to be seen in Gran Canaria. You just have to visit the right places! :smiley:
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,779
    AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Not sure how it works, but does Eddisbury count as a gain in that system?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    nunu2 said:



    Correct, those that it effects cant vote.

    They probably can't even use the word "effect" grammatically.
    My dad told me the difference grammatically between effect and affect just before his death! It was only this year and I thank him for his understanding of my gramatically shortcomings! He is someone I miss very much and I would holiday with him in the canaries a couple of times a year! I am reminded of him and his eccentricities, every day I am here! But life goes on and I can do things like perving at the women on beeches without reprimand! :smiley:
    beaches. Never seen beech trees in the Canaries.
    lol - plenty of bushes to be seen in Gran Canaria. You just have to visit the right places! :smiley:
    I once saw an actual canary in a small Canarian tree.
  • AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Chester. Don't know if you saw my comment earlier but Con already have Stoke S
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Old-Bailey. One for the legal eagles there.
    Rebecca I'llhavea-Baileys

    One for cheap and nasty Liquor lovers
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838
    AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Some of these seem hugely optimistic! Worsley?! Leigh?! Stalybridge?!
  • DavidL said:

    RobD said:

    Talking of tax rates, I've just been looking at the tax someone would pay on a Xmas bonus. As I've complained before, at some points in the income scale the tax rates are horrendous. For example, at £50K salary, for someone with two children, the true marginal tax rate on a bonus is 64.7%.

    Workings (assume a bonus of £10K):

    Child benefit withdrawn: £1,788
    Income tax (40%) and employee NI 2%: £4,200
    Next after tax received by the employee: £4,012

    But the employer also pays 13.8% NI, so that £4,012 in the pocket of the employee costs £11,380. That nice Mr Javid gets 64.7% of it.

    And the real scandal is that not a single one of the parties campaigning for your vote has any intention of doing anything about this madness.

    Over-taxation of £10k bonuses is unlikely to garner that much sympathy :p
    It's the same on a £100 bonus.
    Everywhere I've worked has paid bonuses net of tax. So, here's a £500 bonus and we'll gross it up so that you all receive the same after tax regardless of your tax rate.

    Of course, if the tax was lower it would cost less for the employer, but the employee doesn't necessarily see that their bonus would have been £1500 if not for tax.
    Sure, but the employer does. We will always look at the real picture when making decisions like this.
    Our tax system desperately requires another Lawson committed to simplification and efficiency. But with both the main parties promising to spend money on pretty much everything it seems inevitable that the overall tax burden is going to increase regardless of the result making sensible reform much more difficult.
    It is not just tax rates that hit bonuses, there are two quirks. One is that HMRC assumes your bonus is actually a pay rise so ramps up your tax code (and hence deductions). The other is that in-work benefits can be similarly impacted.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    City of Chester was the missing seat in the NW.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717

    camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Old-Bailey. One for the legal eagles there.
    Rebecca I'llhavea-Baileys

    One for cheap and nasty Liquor lovers
    Rebecca One-Bay-Leaf

    One for the chefs
  • Dawn Butler running for Deputy Leader.

    There we go.

    Momentum backed?
    Barack Obama backed.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676

    I presme the PBers who quoted the original have apologised

    https://twitter.com/mattmacedonia/status/1192829984026615811/photo/1

    Oh they must have forgot
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    Alistair said:
    I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
    I think we need to distinguish carefully between a "shitpost" and a "shit post". The LDs' effort seems to stray quite markedly towards the latter... :wink:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    I presme the PBers who quoted the original have apologised

    https://twitter.com/mattmacedonia/status/1192829984026615811/photo/1

    Was that one commented on here? There have been so many...
  • camel said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).

    Results:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oKkOq3OQFkSd1v4Gd3AoDN-RkfCHa99d58L0cBCWRfs/edit#gid=0

    City of Durham goes LibDem!
    I shall have that as my fun bet for 12 December.

    Meanwhile, back on on topic.


    Rebecca Long-Sighted

    One for the oculists, opticians, optometrists and allied opthalmic trades there.
    Rebecca Long-Bridge for those of us who miss the heyday of nationalised British car manufacturing
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    Rebecca Long Tall Woman In A Black Dress

    Hollies song.

    The Hollies being from Manchester where this election could just possibly be decided - although this is unlikely.
  • Dawn Butler running for Deputy Leader.

    There we go.

    Cool. iirc somewhere there's an old betting slip with her name on it to replace Mr Corbyn (which brings us back to the headline topic). You'd probably get several times the odds now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Some of these seem hugely optimistic! Worsley?! Leigh?! Stalybridge?!
    I doubt some of those will go in reality. Nevertheless it is only based on input from YouGov and output of Flavible.
  • Dawn Butler running for Deputy Leader.

    There we go.

    Ironically, my sauces tell me Tom Watson has applied to be Jacob Rees-Mogg's Dawn Butler.

    Duties include poaching quails eggs, ironing the Daily Telegraph, moving the Bentley out of the restricted parking bay before the traffic wardens go on duty etc. Any essential tasks that a gentleman requires doing between the hours of 4 and 7am basically.
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Old-Bailey. One for the legal eagles there.
    Rebecca I'llhavea-Baileys

    One for cheap and nasty Liquor lovers
    Rebecca One-Bay-Leaf

    One for the chefs
    Rebecca Long-Johns

    One for the fans of a Christmas ski break.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Old-Bailey. One for the legal eagles there.
    Rebecca I'llhavea-Baileys

    One for cheap and nasty Liquor lovers
    Rebecca One-Bay-Leaf

    One for the chefs
    That's funny!
  • I presme the PBers who quoted the original have apologised

    https://twitter.com/mattmacedonia/status/1192829984026615811/photo/1

    The no shit Shylock guy was genuine though because that was funny as feck.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    For people who wonder what cuts through to the ordinary voters, this was from Ashcroft's focus group.

    A final quickfire round. What do we actually know about the leaders? Impressions of Jo Swinson remained sketchy: “Er, she’s a lady;” “Has a young child;” “Was a junior minister in the coalition;” “Has a Labrador.”

    Boris? “Lives in Islington;” “Had a big fight with his girlfriend;” “Went to Eton;” “Doesn’t know how many children he has;” “Lied to the Queen;” “Wrote a novel called Seventy-Two Virgins;” “There was a scandal with a pig.” How will you feel if you wake up on 13th December and he’s still Prime Minister? “Thank God;” “Well, here we are again;” “There will be riots outside the Co-op. I might even be there;” “I’d go to Europe like a shot, but we won’t be allowed to.”

    And Mr. Corbyn? “Went to Glastonbury;” “Has an allotment;” “He cycles everywhere;” “Vegetarian;” “He had a thing with Diane Abbott. A tryst, I think they called it;” “Went to a private school;” “He has a cat called El Gato who comes when he sings Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree.”
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Or Chorley counts as a lab loss and Buckingham a con gain, but somehow here because...wait...no.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    I presme the PBers who quoted the original have apologised

    https://twitter.com/mattmacedonia/status/1192829984026615811/photo/1

    Oh they must have forgot
    They must feel really small, circulating the vile lie that Labour had lost four antisemites in one day when the true figure was an upbeat, sunlit uplandy, hearts and flowers, life affirming three anti semites. Three! Yay! Insert smileys!!!
  • Pulpstar said:


    I doubt some of those will go in reality. Nevertheless it is only based on input from YouGov and output of Flavible.

    I think it's likely to be a useful sanity check, representing the upper limit of seats that might change hands. So, if you're thinking of betting on a seat changing hands and it's not in that spreadsheet, you should double-check your reasoning.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    The regional polling shows quite a high green vote . I can’t see them getting 6/7 % . I’d expect that to be down to 2/3 % tops come the election . Most of that will transfer to Labour with a little to the Lib Dems .
  • Are we talking about Rebecca Motteand-Bailey here? I think she'd do well defending Labour's position.
  • camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Motte-and-Bailey - for the bait-and-switch position on the Labour leadership after Corbyn
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Rebecca One Bailiff, for those who have a single dalliance with personal credit events.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    nunu2 said:
    No doubt those who were pointing out how absurd the head to head was on the back of a poll with the Lib Dems 3% behind Labour will acknowledge that the argument is much more compelling when Labour are 2x their vote.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.
  • AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Interesting. My model replicates all those gains except Wirral (W&S), Ellesmere Port, Lancs W and Chester (missing above). Ellesmere Port is very close, Lancs W close but the other three I have as comfortable Labour holds.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838
    Pulpstar said:

    Cookie said:

    AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Some of these seem hugely optimistic! Worsley?! Leigh?! Stalybridge?!
    I doubt some of those will go in reality. Nevertheless it is only based on input from YouGov and output of Flavible.
    Well, I respect your analysis over my gut-feeling - which is based on how things used to be when leafy suburbs voted blue and mines and mills voted red. I'd be amazed. But that's more a comment on my capacity to be surprised than your ability to model polls effectively.

    I would add though that views of Boris Johnson in Merseyside are likely to count against the Conservatives for seats within 15 miles of Liverpool (Wirral S&W, Lancashire W, Ellesmere Port, Chester, maybe Warrington N).
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489
    camel said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).

    Results:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oKkOq3OQFkSd1v4Gd3AoDN-RkfCHa99d58L0cBCWRfs/edit#gid=0

    City of Durham goes LibDem!
    I shall have that as my fun bet for 12 December.

    Meanwhile, back on on topic.


    Rebecca Long-Sighted

    One for the oculists, opticians, optometrists and allied opthalmic trades there.
    Chortle

    Rebecca Long-Pork


    One for the cannibals there.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Gabs2 said:

    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.

    Is there a box for competence?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489
    Charles said:

    For people who wonder what cuts through to the ordinary voters, this was from Ashcroft's focus group.

    A final quickfire round. What do we actually know about the leaders? Impressions of Jo Swinson remained sketchy: “Er, she’s a lady;” “Has a young child;” “Was a junior minister in the coalition;” “Has a Labrador.”

    Boris? “Lives in Islington;” “Had a big fight with his girlfriend;” “Went to Eton;” “Doesn’t know how many children he has;” “Lied to the Queen;” “Wrote a novel called Seventy-Two Virgins;” “There was a scandal with a pig.” How will you feel if you wake up on 13th December and he’s still Prime Minister? “Thank God;” “Well, here we are again;” “There will be riots outside the Co-op. I might even be there;” “I’d go to Europe like a shot, but we won’t be allowed to.”

    And Mr. Corbyn? “Went to Glastonbury;” “Has an allotment;” “He cycles everywhere;” “Vegetarian;” “He had a thing with Diane Abbott. A tryst, I think they called it;” “Went to a private school;” “He has a cat called El Gato who comes when he sings Tie A Yellow Ribbon Round The Old Oak Tree.”

    Corbyn's cat sure has strange sexual predilections.
  • DavidL said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.

    Is there a box for competence?
    What a silly question!
  • timmo said:

    Rebecca Bill Hailey...one for the old rockers on here

    Or Rebecca Bill Bailey for those who won't come home.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    on topic:

    On the basis of the Yougov regionals and the flavible projection, front bench favourite Laura Pidcock loses her seat in NW Durham.

    On the basis that Sir Keir Starmer is too male and too ennobled, Emily Thornbury is too aristocratic, Yvette Cooper is too centre-ist and JohnMcDonnell is too old, I suggest the next Labour leader and deputy leader will be Rebecca and Angela. Some kind of reverse forecast bet is required though because I cannot split them.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.

    You mean with Labour's proud record of electing women and ethnic minorities to top positions within the party?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489

    camel said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've put the YouGov regional survey numbers through Flavible's regional seat calculator, which is the best one available in my opinion. Interesting that the Tories lose seats in the SE and SW (as well as Scotland).

    Results:

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1oKkOq3OQFkSd1v4Gd3AoDN-RkfCHa99d58L0cBCWRfs/edit#gid=0

    City of Durham goes LibDem!
    I shall have that as my fun bet for 12 December.

    Meanwhile, back on on topic.


    Rebecca Long-Sighted

    One for the oculists, opticians, optometrists and allied opthalmic trades there.
    Rebecca Long-Bridge for those of us who miss the heyday of nationalised British car manufacturing

    Ha! Very good.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    DavidL said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.

    Is there a box for competence?
    What a silly question!
    More facetious than silly.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Rebecca Long Dong Silver, for all of you porn officianados out there.
  • Gabs2 said:

    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.

    Yes. Now explain Tom Watson, or indeed why the horrendously White RLB and PB are higher up in the betting for leader, or indeed the pale, male and stale Jeremy Corbyn -- he's not even Jewish! It is almost as if Labour elections are not just box-ticking exercises.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489

    camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Old-Bailey. One for the legal eagles there.
    Rebecca I'llhavea-Baileys

    One for cheap and nasty Liquor lovers
    Rebecca Large-Baileys surely?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489
    RobD said:
    Surely you mean 'labour surge' ???
  • blueblue said:

    camel said:

    camel said:

    Anorak said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long March

    One for the Communists there.
    Rebecca Long-Blonde, one for the trichologists there
    Rebecca Long-Odds. One for the political bettors there :smiley:
    Rebecca Long-Barrow

    One for the pagans there
    Rebecca Long-Legs one for the Cricket lover and the Pervs.
    Rebecca Old-Bailey. One for the legal eagles there.
    Rebecca I'llhavea-Baileys

    One for cheap and nasty Liquor lovers
    Rebecca One-Bay-Leaf

    One for the chefs
    Rebecca Long-Johns

    One for the fans of a Christmas ski break.
    Rebecca Long-Time-a-Comin for all those Civil Rights fans.
  • DavidL said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.

    Is there a box for competence?
    What do you think?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936

    RobD said:
    Surely you mean 'labour surge' ???
    Margin of error surge, yes!
  • This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Lennon said:

    AndyJS said:

    Can anyone spot the missing Tory gain from Labour in the NW on this map? (It isn't Chorley since the Tories won't contest it).

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction/nw/33/30/17/5/0/14

    I've got the following:

    Workington
    Barrow
    Lancaster
    Blackpool South
    Hyndburn
    Lancs West
    Wirral West
    Wirral South
    Ellesmere Port
    Weaver Vale
    Crewe
    Warrington N
    Warrington S
    Leigh
    Worsley
    Bolton NE
    Oldham E
    Stalybridge
    Bury N
    Bury S
    Heywood

    Not sure how it works, but does Eddisbury count as a gain in that system?
    No, it's a comparison with GE2017 excluding by-elections or defections. It turned out to be Chester that was missing.
  • Mr. Eagles, not sure if you saw it but on the previous thread I responded to that story by suggesting voters in Wales, Scotland, and the north of England might be bemused there's so much money available for transporting spending provided it's far away.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489
    RobD said:

    RobD said:
    Surely you mean 'labour surge' ???
    Margin of error surge, yes!
    Can we settle on a statistically insignificant bounce?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    nico67 said:

    That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .

    As others have said, I think all of this "candidate you've never heard of drops out" stuff passes voters by, including Alan thingy in Wales. They seem very serious to the people who know them, and the journalists enjoy the scoop, but for Fred in Birmingham it's a "whatever" thing.

    The lead is still big - on my reckoning, it needs to come down to about 7 before we get excited.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited November 2019

    RobD said:
    Surely you mean 'labour surge' ???
    If you add in a margin of error of 3%, it could be Tories 37% Labour 33%. Or perhaps Tories 43% Labour 27%. Anyone care to put those two extremes into the electoral calculator?
  • nico67 said:

    That Panelbase poll will be a relief for Labour . Hitting 30% after the dreadful two days they’ve had .

    The fieldwork started two days ago so I wouldn't draw any conclusions in that respect.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489

    This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm

    Rebecca Long-Wait.

    One for the people who bought houses in Abbey Wood in anticipation of Crossrail arriving there.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Jason said:

    RobD said:
    Surely you mean 'labour surge' ???
    If you add in a margin of error of 3%, it could be Tories 37% Labour 33%. Or perhaps Tories 43% Labour 27%. Anyone care to put those two extremes into the electoral calculator?
    Luckily we'll get a hundred more polls in the interim. :D
  • Jason said:

    Rebecca Long Dong Silver, for all of you porn officianados out there.

    If we were playing Mornington Tumescent then maybe...
  • This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm

    Just wait until we get the HS2 overruns.It will make this lot look like peanuts.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    RobD said:
    Surely you mean 'labour surge' ???
    There'll be a LibDem surge next week when the 'skills wallet' policy enters the public consciousness. Building a Brighter Future.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Panelbase

    Remain 53
    Leave 47

    One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    Always worth checking for house effects with pollsters

    Panelbase
    17–18 Oct
    GB
    1,008
    36%
    27%
    17%

    Panelbase
    30–31 Oct
    GB
    1,008
    40%
    29%
    14%

    Panelbase looks to be good for both Tories and Labour generally.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979

    timmo said:

    Rebecca Bill Hailey...one for the old rockers on here

    Or Rebecca Bill Bailey for those who won't come home.
    Hi, Sorry I flicked not like again by accident!

    I actually like RL Bailey!

    She seems genuine.

    She would probably be ok as leader in the wake of a heavy defeat. I still think Labour will surprise as possible largest party but well short of defeat!
  • More campaign clunkers from Tory team:

    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1192822186790264836

    These tours of regional hospitals and schools are supposed to be mainly for the local media market. Jeez. 101.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    edited November 2019
    On topic -

    Of the 3 young Corbynite women my clear favourite is Pidcock. She oozes a certain something which to me looks like star power.

    I backed her at big odds but she is much shorter now and shortening further with each passing day. Get on quick or risk missing the boat.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1192577135929638912 Somebody saying more eloquently what I was trying to earlier
  • This is a disgrace considering they cancelled some Northern improvements for going a few million over.

    The opening of Crossrail has been put back again, until 2021 at the earliest, with cost overruns now mounting to nearly £3 billion and the total bill at more than £18 billion.

    The trans-London underground railway, already a year late and £2.2 billion over budget, has been delayed because new stations at Bond Street, in the centre of London, and Whitechapel, east of the City, are not ready. Signalling issues have also contributed to the delay.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/crossrail-delayed-until-at-least-2021-at-cost-of-650m-xx2qn7tsm

    Just wait until we get the HS2 overruns.It will make this lot look like peanuts.
    I know.
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    nico67 said:

    Panelbase

    Remain 53
    Leave 47

    One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .

    And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,779
    Rebecca Lanson Black Label (one for the champagne socialists...)
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited November 2019
    I would appreciate observations on how some modelling I have done to predict results for English seats using the mega YouGov data set could be improved. It uses the format published earlier by YouGov which identified Leave and Remain supporters of each party according to whom they voted for in 2017 and then gave a split of which party they are voting for now.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/01/how-will-eu-referendum-and-2017-voters-cast-their-

    The basic method is to:
    1. take the 2017 GE result by constituency and then notionally split the votes for each party into leave and remain using the weighted sample totals for GB as applied by YouGov in their mega poll e.g. YouGov used 2205 Lab Remain v 1032 Lab Leave 2017 voters so I assume that across GB 31.9% of 2017 Lab voters voted Leave in the referendum.
    2. Compare the 2016 actual result my model predicts for each constituency using with the HOC Library actual and notional results by constituency. Then adjust the results by changing the split of Leave voters in each constituency by a uniform factor for each party. So for example if my model predicted a Leave vote of 55% and the HOC figure was 60% then the % of the 2017 Con, Lab, LD, UKIP, Green and Other voters who voted Leave would all be increased by 5%.
    3. Then assign each group a vote in 2019 using the % which YouGov found in their mega poll. eg. 47% of 2017 Con Remain voters will still vote Con, 3% Lab, 24% LD, 1% BXP, 2% Green, 1% Other (treating the DK/DV/Refused as non voters). The split for "Other" voters was scaled up to attempt a split for England only eliminating the SNP/Plaid supporters in the YouGov polling.

    This quite rough and ready model ends up predicting that Con will win 409 English seats compared to 296 in 2017. I think that is wildly overstating the actual Con result, with tactical voting being totally ignored. Nonetheless it gives a flavour of how the impact of Brexit on past party loyalties could be playing out before tactical voting comes into play, with a large number of Leave voting Labour constituencies seemingly at risk.

    There are some gremlins which v2 will attempt to iron out, because at the moment where the predicted Leave % is well under the actual Leave % step 2 you can get a split of UKIP voters where (say) 110% of 2017 UKIP voters are deemed to have voted Leave and -10% to have voted Remain.

    Anyway, observations on how the assumptions in the model might be tweaked for v2 would be appreciated.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149

    nico67 said:

    Panelbase

    Remain 53
    Leave 47

    One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .

    And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
    That lead is no higher than 2016 and of course if Boris wins there will be Brexit with the Boris Deal and no EUref2 anyway
  • Off topic, I have to say I cannot fathom the Brexit Party's strategy in this election.

    They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.

    They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".

    But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    Panelbase

    Remain 53
    Leave 47

    One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .

    And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
    I think the turnout will be interesting . That could be crucial if there’s big differences between Remain and Leave areas . We saw in the Euros generally higher turnout in Remain areas .
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/status/1192577135929638912 Somebody saying more eloquently what I was trying to earlier

    The right wing press, the Labour party itself and momentum which both recognise the problem and oh, the body investigating them for racism.......


    Give it a rest
  • DavidL said:

    Gabs2 said:

    Dawn Butler has to be a shoe-in for deputy leader right? Female, ethnic minority, left wing. She ticks all the boxes for the faithful.

    Is there a box for competence?
    Yep. It's long, silk-lined and buried six feet under.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,489

    nico67 said:

    Panelbase

    Remain 53
    Leave 47

    One thing that’s not been mentioned the pool of available voters to both sides is likely to favour Remain .

    And the recent PV march suggests that remain voters are more motivated than leavers. Recent attempts to organise pro-leave demonstrations seem to have been a flop and the missing of the October deadline seems to have been a big yawn for most people despite predictions of public fury,
    Yes, the pitchforks have been notable in their absence.
  • Off topic, I have to say I cannot fathom the Brexit Party's strategy in this election.

    They've spent so much time and energy begging for a deal that Johnson could never give them even if he had personally wanted to. By not getting it, they appear both weak for begging and failing, and not serious for saying they were basically willing to step aside for a price. And Farage not standing further undermines them on the seriousness point.

    They could have gone hell for leather, "I'm campaigning to be PM and take us out NOW with no deal - not faff about". Or they could have said, "Country before party - we'll grudgingly back Johnson but he will feel our wrath if he backtracks by a millimetre in future".

    But they've basically set a strategy almost guaranteed to get about 8-10% of the vote, i.e. not enough to break into Parliament, but sufficient to split the Leave vote enough to make Brexit (or a Brexit close to what they want) somewhat less likely.

    Isn't the last paragraph what Farage wants? Enough votes to be relevant to a 2020GE after the other non-Tories have cancelled Brexit.
This discussion has been closed.