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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle to succeed Corbyn could soon be upon us and Long-Ba

SystemSystem Posts: 12,170
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle to succeed Corbyn could soon be upon us and Long-Bailey retains her favourite position in the betting

This is a betting market that we have hardly paid any attention to because Corbyn has appeared so secure. Well he’s indicated that if LAB loses the election then he will step down so the chances are that the fight could start before Christmas.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    First.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    YouGov Poll of 11,500 Voters Puts Tories 14% Ahead of Labour https://t.co/6XgAqYbv63 https://t.co/jVkSjygR6R
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    It seems clear that the only route to IndyRef 2 is Labour taking seats off the Tories. I'm hopeful this won't happen.

    Keir Starmer will certainly have the 'woman only' card played against him, in the modern Labour party of virtue signalling that may prove to be a difficult hand to overcome against either Long Bailey or Pidcock.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    Surely the increasingly hard left membership arent going to go for a starmer or thornberry. They are far too near the centre ground.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Sixth like a competent potential Labour leader.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,678
    It should be Diane Abbott.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    And clear evidence of why it is outrageous to exclude the Lib Dems from the debates. They are just three points off Corbyn!
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,716
    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    If this trend continues the head-to-head debate format will be even less defensible.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    Labour in freefall at present
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Becky Bibbly-Bobbly is terrible
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    Oh, these numbers are separate from the regional poll? Confusing!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    Are you saying it could be worse for labour
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    If this trend continues the head-to-head debate format will be even less defensible.
    The all leaders debate includes Farage. Now that will be fun v Swinson v labour
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Urquhart, Starmer's very pro-EU, though.

    Mr. NorthWales, if Farage isn't standing, he shouldn't be there. (Likewise Sturgeon).
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,880
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    Labour in freefall at present
    Wiki graph has Boris ascendant, Corbyn flatlining.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_United_Kingdom_general_election
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    edited November 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    Labour in freefall at present
    That doesn't look good for them. Corbyn won't go unless they get absolutely pummelled, so maybe this is for the best.

    I know they'll just elect another idiot, given the 'gotta be a woman' line that John McD is pushing, Starmer might struggle.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    that's a fair point - 2 weeks *at least* out of date
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization.
    .. but mostly at each other's throats.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    When they talk about racism in football in the uk...compare and contrast...

    Brescia's Mario Balotelli has been called "arrogant" by the club's ultras group as it defended Verona fans after some racially abused the Italian.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Scotland only part of the poll is a fairly standard result once you plug it into electoral calculus.

    Tories -10
    Lab -5
    LD +1
    SNP +14

    Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS

    I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.

    Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    FPT:
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Have we covered this one?

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-election-candidate-defended-jewish-final-solution-slur/?fbclid=IwAR0lBOnIdW7rhI8ViFWCMKoE_Ri_tLEz9yyyUq8MlxG6wnunJ-33vlWcikk

    We've lost count.

    Perhaps it would be easier to report on any new Labour candidates who DON'T have an anti-Semitic history?
    I think so far in the last two days we've had:
    Views on Jews
    - Gordon (stood down)
    - Clacton (stood down)
    - Coventry S (clinging on, improbably)
    - Harlow (no pressure to stand down yet)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (2) (no pressure to stand down yet)

    Plus Pudsey, which was basically just an inept defence of Coventry S candidate, above and has probably blown over already

    We might also include Chris Williamson, Derby North, in the above list, although that was really just an administrative clearing-up exercise from a previous antisemtic episiode.

    Views on Transsexuals:
    - Edinburgh SW (stood down - for advocating the death of people insufficiently keen on transsexuals)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (1) (Roger Godsdiff, sitting) (stood down - for being insufficiently keen on transsexuals)

    Other:
    Bassetlaw (deselected, for, we think, being insufficiently left wing)


    Any others?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    Boris has not held a news conference and hardly faced the cameras

    He seems to be going to hospitals in marginal seats, getting his photo for the local paper, and going to the next

    Keeping out of it until the manifesto and leaders debate but connecting through the local press

    Strategy or just muddle

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Boris has not held a news conference and hardly faced the cameras

    He seems to be going to hospitals in marginal seats, getting his photo for the local paper, and going to the next

    Keeping out of it until the manifesto and leaders debate but connecting through the local press

    Strategy or just muddle

    They want him doing more of the PR stunts like the tea bag production line.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Urquhart, Starmer's very pro-EU, though.

    Mr. NorthWales, if Farage isn't standing, he shouldn't be there. (Likewise Sturgeon).

    I believe they have both been invited
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    Cookie said:

    FPT:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Have we covered this one?

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-election-candidate-defended-jewish-final-solution-slur/?fbclid=IwAR0lBOnIdW7rhI8ViFWCMKoE_Ri_tLEz9yyyUq8MlxG6wnunJ-33vlWcikk

    We've lost count.

    Perhaps it would be easier to report on any new Labour candidates who DON'T have an anti-Semitic history?
    I think so far in the last two days we've had:
    Views on Jews
    - Gordon (stood down)
    - Clacton (stood down)
    - Coventry S (clinging on, improbably)
    - Harlow (no pressure to stand down yet)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (2) (no pressure to stand down yet)

    Plus Pudsey, which was basically just an inept defence of Coventry S candidate, above and has probably blown over already

    We might also include Chris Williamson, Derby North, in the above list, although that was really just an administrative clearing-up exercise from a previous antisemtic episiode.

    Views on Transsexuals:
    - Edinburgh SW (stood down - for advocating the death of people insufficiently keen on transsexuals)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (1) (Roger Godsdiff, sitting) (stood down - for being insufficiently keen on transsexuals)

    Other:
    Bassetlaw (deselected, for, we think, being insufficiently left wing)


    Any others?
    But they hardly got any coverage, especially compared to JRM insensitive comments and the Cairns stuff.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Boris has not held a news conference and hardly faced the cameras

    He seems to be going to hospitals in marginal seats, getting his photo for the local paper, and going to the next

    Keeping out of it until the manifesto and leaders debate but connecting through the local press

    Strategy or just muddle

    Pure cowardice. He lacks the spine to face difficult questions and I would not be surprised if he avoids the leader debates as well.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Kuenssberg at centre of shitposting controversy ....
    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/nov/08/confusion-after-bbc-podcasts-attempt-to-define-shitposting-laura-kuenssberg
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Alistair said:

    The Scotland only part of the poll is a fairly standard result once you plug it into electoral calculus.

    Tories -10
    Lab -5
    LD +1
    SNP +14

    Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS

    I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.

    Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.

    BRS is likely to be the last seat standing for the Tories, even in a wipeout scenario. The SNP have for more chance of ousting Fluffy Mundell that the terminally useless John Lamont.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Crossrail delayed again.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/nov/08/crossrail-faces-further-delays-and-will-cost-more-than-18bn-tfl
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    RobD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    Oh, these numbers are separate from the regional poll? Confusing!
    No, many of the regional numbers are from late October.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    Polls aren't accurate enough to distinguish between 11 and 14% leads I think. Could be noise or a genuine movement
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Anorak said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Rebecca Long-Barrier :lol:

    Rebecca Mottand-Bailey. [one for the mediaeval buffs there]
    Rebecca Long-Odds?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Boris has not held a news conference and hardly faced the cameras

    He seems to be going to hospitals in marginal seats, getting his photo for the local paper, and going to the next

    Keeping out of it until the manifesto and leaders debate but connecting through the local press

    Strategy or just muddle

    The fat blond Pimpernel strategy.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. NorthWales, that's tosh, and it was tosh last time too.

    The debates are a farce, and the conniving of parties and media to try and game the system to their advantage just makes them worse.

    Boo and hiss!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited November 2019
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Cookie said:

    - Birmingham Hall Green (1) (Roger Godsdiff, sitting) (stood down - for being insufficiently keen on transsexuals)

    I thought Godsiff was more to do with his support for the Muslim parents (and whipper-uppers) who are against all forms of LGBT-aware education, rather than trans people in particular.
  • Gabs2Gabs2 Posts: 1,268
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Cookie said:

    FPT:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    BannedInParis said:

    Have we covered this one?

    https://jewishnews.timesofisrael.com/labour-election-candidate-defended-jewish-final-solution-slur/?fbclid=IwAR0lBOnIdW7rhI8ViFWCMKoE_Ri_tLEz9yyyUq8MlxG6wnunJ-33vlWcikk

    We've lost count.

    Perhaps it would be easier to report on any new Labour candidates who DON'T have an anti-Semitic history?
    I think so far in the last two days we've had:
    Views on Jews
    - Gordon (stood down)
    - Clacton (stood down)
    - Coventry S (clinging on, improbably)
    - Harlow (no pressure to stand down yet)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (2) (no pressure to stand down yet)

    Plus Pudsey, which was basically just an inept defence of Coventry S candidate, above and has probably blown over already

    We might also include Chris Williamson, Derby North, in the above list, although that was really just an administrative clearing-up exercise from a previous antisemtic episiode.

    Views on Transsexuals:
    - Edinburgh SW (stood down - for advocating the death of people insufficiently keen on transsexuals)
    - Birmingham Hall Green (1) (Roger Godsdiff, sitting) (stood down - for being insufficiently keen on transsexuals)

    Other:
    Bassetlaw (deselected, for, we think, being insufficiently left wing)


    Any others?
    But they hardly got any coverage, especially compared to JRM insensitive comments and the Cairns stuff.
    Not surprised. My experience with junior BBC employees is that Corbynista sympathies run deep and they will give Labour people the benefit of the doubt in a way they would not with Tories. Plus senior staff are oversensitive about the perpetual attacks from the Hard Left online.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    What the YouGov regional survey does suggest is that the LibDem surge (compared to 2017) is spread quite evenly across the regions. So it looks like they are gaining votes in a lot of seats which they will still lose. For example, despite the LDs going from 4% to 14% in the West Midlands, they are still going to be hard pressed to win any West Midlands seat.

    The LDs increase in the slightly Brexity SW is also the smallest of any region, from 15% to 21%, although the BXP looks to be eating into the Tory vote share significantly there which will help them. They look set to do better in the more Remainy SE, which now has their highest vote share and increase, from 11% to 23%.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,864
    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    Understandable but not necessarily correct. The truly stunning thing about the regional figures, apart from Labour's collapse, is the consistent strength of TBP. If Boris succeeds in squeezing this any Labour recovery is going to have minimal impact.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. JS, be interesting to see how big a story that becomes.

    Voters in the north of England, as well as Wales and Scotland, will be bemused there's so much money available for transport spending, provided it's far away from them.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    Anabobazina said:

    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
    Cos money has been spent doing them?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. NorthWales, that's tosh, and it was tosh last time too.

    The debates are a farce, and the conniving of parties and media to try and game the system to their advantage just makes them worse.

    Boo and hiss!

    I assume your 'tosh' is about the decision not the info
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Just discovered that Flavible allows regional user inputs:

    https://flavible.co.uk/userprediction
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Anabobazina said:

    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
    For a three percent change in lead, I'm not sure I agree.

    We did have a few older/more signfiicant change polls in the run up to the Euros though - that was very strange.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242
    Beibheirli_C said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Boris has not held a news conference and hardly faced the cameras

    He seems to be going to hospitals in marginal seats, getting his photo for the local paper, and going to the next

    Keeping out of it until the manifesto and leaders debate but connecting through the local press

    Strategy or just muddle

    Pure cowardice. He lacks the spine to face difficult questions and I would not be surprised if he avoids the leader debates as well.
    I find the constant accusations of ducking scrutiny puzzling. In the leadership contest, Boris did 3 debates, numerous hustings, plus was interviewed by Andrew Neil. I would suggest he received far more scrutiny than any previous Conservative leadership winner.

    As to this election, the BBC just announced a raft of new debates and I'm sure Boris will turn up to them all.

    I'm sure scrutiny of all the party leaders will increase in the coming weeks when the manifestos have been released. We are still in the phony war stage at the moment.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Alistair said:

    The Scotland only part of the poll is a fairly standard result once you plug it into electoral calculus.

    Tories -10
    Lab -5
    LD +1
    SNP +14

    Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS

    I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.

    Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.

    BRS is likely to be the last seat standing for the Tories, even in a wipeout scenario. The SNP have for more chance of ousting Fluffy Mundell that the terminally useless John Lamont.
    I suspect both BRS and DCT are safe barring extreme edge case scenarios.

    And in those scenarios (say anyone who has every voted Lib Dem in their life is legally prohibited from voting conservative) then Mundell holds on in DCT whilst Lamont carks it.

    Mundell is a Survivor.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anabobazina said:

    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
    Polling for this regional survey only finished 4 days ago if I read it right, so it's not that out of date.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    Skill wallets!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,113
    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    My reservations are Boris. He will either win well or crater and I do not know which
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    I've googled it and I'm none the wiser...!!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    Can't believe that Cons most seats is 1.12 or so. That must be the best value short odds bet around.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,716
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    She's got the skills and she's got the wallets?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,354
    williamglenn said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    If this trend continues the head-to-head debate format will be even less defensible.
    It was never defensible and is now appearing ludicrous.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Alistair said:

    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    Alistair said:

    The Scotland only part of the poll is a fairly standard result once you plug it into electoral calculus.

    Tories -10
    Lab -5
    LD +1
    SNP +14

    Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS

    I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.

    Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.

    BRS is likely to be the last seat standing for the Tories, even in a wipeout scenario. The SNP have for more chance of ousting Fluffy Mundell that the terminally useless John Lamont.
    I suspect both BRS and DCT are safe barring extreme edge case scenarios.

    And in those scenarios (say anyone who has every voted Lib Dem in their life is legally prohibited from voting conservative) then Mundell holds on in DCT whilst Lamont carks it.

    Mundell is a Survivor.
    I live in BRS, and whilst the only visible posters so far are SNP, it is the home of the shy Tory/tactical No voter. I suspect both Fluffy and Lamont will end up as the gruesome twosome heading south.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,837
    El_Capitano said:

    Cookie said:

    - Birmingham Hall Green (1) (Roger Godsdiff, sitting) (stood down - for being insufficiently keen on transsexuals)

    I thought Godsiff was more to do with his support for the Muslim parents (and whipper-uppers) who are against all forms of LGBT-aware education, rather than trans people in particular.
    I thought it was transsexual-specific, but I must admit I only skim-read his lengthy statement. 'Twas bizarre, whatever it was. Happy to be corrected.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    edited November 2019
    AndyJS said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
    Polling for this regional survey only finished 4 days ago if I read it right, so it's not that out of date.
    all the details are here:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

    - four separate regional polls.

    Given a discrepancy of 3 %, I'd agree and suggest a pinch of salt.

    For the Labour supporters and activists, I'd go so far as to say ignore it altogether. You're doing *FINE*.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited November 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
    Cos money has been spent doing them?
    Big poll - takes more time to process.

    The regional data was super-interesting, and not covered elsewhere other than in dodgy subsamples. Posting national VI was reasonable given the data set, but they should have been clearer about the timing and that it was not comparable to their more recent polls.*

    * They might well have been, but, well, Twitter.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    I think that’s what Laura Kuenssberg calls ‘shitposting’.
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    BannedInParis said:

    AndyJS said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
    Polling for this regional survey only finished 4 days ago if I read it right, so it's not that out of date.
    all the details are here:

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/08/regional-voting-intentions-show-both-main-parties-

    - four separate regional polls.

    Given a discrepancy of 3 %, I'd agree and suggest a pinch of salt.

    For the Labour supporters and activists, I'd go so far as to say ignore it altogether. You're doing *FINE*.
    Is this the one Britain Elects is currently tweeting out by region?

    Lab down double digits everywhere? UH OH.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRhlRM6rYck
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. NorthWales, you assume correctly, good sir.

    Speaking of tosh, (disclaimer: I know nothing about football), I've backed Watford and Norwich to draw at 3.5.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    My reservations are Boris. He will either win well or crater and I do not know which
    Another effort like last night and it'll be crater. Even the Mail and Express won't be able to weasel it away. He's probably already toast in N Ireland, but unless the Alliance and SDLP win ten or so seats between them that won't matter much.

    Incidentally, reviewing his performance last night, didn't he prom ice to give up alcohol during the campaign or until Brexit was done? Or something like that?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    She's got the skills and she's got the wallets?
    But has she got the look?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlVI7ZNiFlI
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,533
    RobD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    Oh, these numbers are separate from the regional poll? Confusing!
    Was there in fact a regional poll? My impression was that they were reheating all their polls over the period, broken down by region. That's why the 14% agrees with their polling over the period - because it is in fact their polling over the period.

    I don't see why a regional poll would need to take two weeks with a panel - it takes a few extra microseconds for the computer to break down the figures, job done.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,560
    El_Capitano said:

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRhlRM6rYck
    Anyone trying to do a parody thing like Chris Morris's 'The Day Today' at the moment is going to find it hard going. The whole thing parodies itself.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    My reservations are Boris. He will either win well or crater and I do not know which
    Another effort like last night and it'll be crater. Even the Mail and Express won't be able to weasel it away. He's probably already toast in N Ireland, but unless the Alliance and SDLP win ten or so seats between them that won't matter much.

    Incidentally, reviewing his performance last night, didn't he prom ice to give up alcohol during the campaign or until Brexit was done? Or something like that?
    This is Boris Johnson. Bumbling buffoon is priced in.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    Where the poll is of value is in highlighting sub-national variations, which matters in any attempt to predict seat changes that doesn't rely on UNS. Until now, we have been crying out for English regional polling. So it certainly shouldn't be ignored in that sense.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,716
    Anorak said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    She's got the skills and she's got the wallets?
    But has she got the look?
    Hello hey Jo, do you wanna give it a go?
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Alistair said:


    Can't believe that Cons most seats is 1.12 or so. That must be the best value short odds bet around.

    1.15 on Betfair.

    I keep looking at it thinking in a month's time it will have looked like buying money.

    Still haven't backed it though probably because i'm still fighting the last war in my mind.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    I see the Lib Dems have dubbed the visa fee the ‘Nurse Tax’. Could catch on.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    We need to find a bland slogan about skills and something else that appeals to wallets for the poster but we'll worry about what later. Oops, someone's pressed the send button by mistake.
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    Worst ever Pet Shop Boys tribute band does "Opportunities"?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    Is this one of those "don't dead open inside" memes?
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    We need to find a bland slogan about skills and something else that appeals to wallets for the poster but we'll worry about what later. Oops, someone's pressed the send button by mistake.
    I think you will find it’s a lifetime education and retraining budget for individuals given the expected changes in technology.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,560
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Alistair said:

    Any help deciphering this?

    https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1192812081483005953?s=19

    We need to find a bland slogan about skills and something else that appeals to wallets for the poster but we'll worry about what later. Oops, someone's pressed the send button by mistake.
    Maybe they are giving a free Skills Wallet in competition to the free Owl offered to every UK citizen if they vote in a Labour government.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Gallowgate said:

    I see the Lib Dems have dubbed the visa fee the ‘Nurse Tax’. Could catch on.

    Cutting funding for the NHS has never been more popular!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    edited November 2019
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Anabobazina said:

    Anorak said:

    So +14% poll was from regionals data and is out of date.

    Latest Yougov has +11% which would align to move to Labour over last 10 days.

    So +14% should be ignored or treated with extreme caution.

    Correct?

    I have never understood why pollsters even release polls that are out of date. It seems like the height of irresponsibility to me, amid a campaign.
    Cos money has been spent doing them?
    Why does anyone commission them? It's like buying last week's newspaper!
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    Can't believe that Cons most seats is 1.12 or so. That must be the best value short odds bet around.
    I agree Con most seats is fairly safe. But I think backing a majority at this stage is a much bigger ask. For me the reticence would be around:

    1. What happened last time. I *think* Corbyn has more baggage in most people's eyes this time. But he wasn't short of it last time, and he still overcame quite a lot during a period of extensive exposure. If he lands some decent "down with billionaires" or "nationalise the railways" punches, or Johnson self-combusts, it's gonna get tighter.

    2. There's still a long way to go in the Con-BXP and Lab-LD battles, and those loyalties are more volatile than in the old 2-3 party set-up. If Farage cuts through on immigration targets being dropped or Lab manages to shake off the LDs (or conversely they have a Jo-gasm) then the picture changes.

    3. Let's accept the overall VI figures are probably a decent current snapshot. But it feels to me that there are so many "micro-climates" that applying them to seat distribution is risky. If Cons lose a few seats - from their existing minority position, remember - in the south to Lib Dems and in Scotland to the SNP having already lost the DUP, they have a *lot* to steal in the Midlands and North of England to win a majority.

    If the tribal Northern Lab vote really is dead (today's regional YouGov suggests it might be on life support), Boris is home and dry. Even without that switch, Corbyn has a long way to catch up and I suspect a low ceiling.

    So yes.. Con most seats pretty nailed on. But anything beyond a thin majority feels wishful to me at this stage.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    THE NURSE TAX

    Is Boris fucking mad? All going too well, why don't we mix it up a bit chaps with this little hand grenade??

    https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/policies-and-guidance/tory-nhs-visa-announcement-shaded-by-nurse-tax-concerns-08-11-2019/
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,084
    On current trends Labour are *fourth* in Scotland. The Lib Dems are also picking up quite a bit from the Tories, so apart from Fife NE, RSL and the held seats, there could be some surprises in store.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,472
    RobD said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    My reservations are Boris. He will either win well or crater and I do not know which
    Another effort like last night and it'll be crater. Even the Mail and Express won't be able to weasel it away. He's probably already toast in N Ireland, but unless the Alliance and SDLP win ten or so seats between them that won't matter much.

    Incidentally, reviewing his performance last night, didn't he prom ice to give up alcohol during the campaign or until Brexit was done? Or something like that?
    This is Boris Johnson. Bumbling buffoon is priced in.
    Drunken bumbling buffoon? I wonder if he realises how lucky he is facing first Livingstone then Corbyn? A competent prosecuting solicitor would have him tied in verbal knots in no time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Alistair said:

    The Scotland only part of the poll is a fairly standard result once you plug it into electoral calculus.

    Tories -10
    Lab -5
    LD +1
    SNP +14

    Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS

    I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.

    Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.

    Something about that doesn’t smell right.

    Why would so many Tories move direct to SNP with the Sword of Damocles of independence being brazenly waved over their heads?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,676
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    Labour in freefall at present
    This isnt a trend its very old data

    We may as well say Corbyn is 2nd most popular Lab leader ever based on

    https://twitter.com/CllrMajid/status/873858102365499392/photo/1
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    THE NURSE TAX

    heh.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,716
    Anabobazina said:

    THE NURSE TAX

    heh.

    https://twitter.com/LibDems/status/1192818869922095105
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Alistair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Gabs2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    AndyJS said:

    This is an extra large survey with 11,500 voters:

    https://twitter.com/DatSingh/status/1192813471471157248

    But the fieldwork is mainly from last month.
    True, and Labour have been slightly improving in the polls since then.
    Plus the Corbynistas and Remainers have a big activist base and organization. I think both Lab and LD will overperform, especially given Tories are so triumphant, undisciplined and complacent.
    This one is not.

    I am still to be convinced of a Boris majority, as I said yesterday is 50/50 for me
    It's interesting so many people are not convinced of a Tory majority despite the party having a lead of about 10 to 15% in most polls. It's understandable because of what happened last time.
    Can't believe that Cons most seats is 1.12 or so. That must be the best value short odds bet around.
    It very probably is.
  • SunnyJimSunnyJim Posts: 1,106
    Anabobazina said:

    THE NURSE TAX

    Is Boris fucking mad? All going too well, why don't we mix it up a bit chaps with this little hand grenade??

    https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/policies-and-guidance/tory-nhs-visa-announcement-shaded-by-nurse-tax-concerns-08-11-2019/


    ...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...


    Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Casino_Royale said:

    Alistair said:

    The Scotland only part of the poll is a fairly standard result once you plug it into electoral calculus.

    Tories -10
    Lab -5
    LD +1
    SNP +14

    Leave the Tories with WAK, DCT and BRS

    I suspect in such a scenario WAK would fall as well.

    Whicg is annoying as that would take the SNP to 51 seats and I'd loose my SNP under 50.5 bet which at the moment looks a sure thing.

    Something about that doesn’t smell right.

    Why would so many Tories move direct to SNP with the Sword of Damocles of independence being brazenly waved over their heads?
    They are Tories but pro-independence? Presumably such a group exists?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    SunnyJim said:

    Alistair said:


    Can't believe that Cons most seats is 1.12 or so. That must be the best value short odds bet around.

    1.15 on Betfair.

    I keep looking at it thinking in a month's time it will have looked like buying money.

    Still haven't backed it though probably because i'm still fighting the last war in my mind.

    Which explains the odds.

    I can’t go in again until 28th November (when I next get paid) at the risk that it might then be down to 1.08-1.09.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,716
    SunnyJim said:

    Anabobazina said:

    THE NURSE TAX

    Is Boris fucking mad? All going too well, why don't we mix it up a bit chaps with this little hand grenade??

    https://www.nursingtimes.net/news/policies-and-guidance/tory-nhs-visa-announcement-shaded-by-nurse-tax-concerns-08-11-2019/


    ...The Conservatives have unveiled plans for a new “NHS visa” with the aim of making it quicker, easier and cheaper for foreign nurses to work in the UK...

    Am I understanding correctly that the Conservatives are proposing fast-tracking for medical professionals AND making it cheaper than it used to be?
    https://twitter.com/MrHickmott/status/1192756012924715008
This discussion has been closed.