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  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    timmo said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's anecdote time so prepare the salt bucket...

    That keen political animal, Mrs Stodge, has opined on the GE. Now, despite being married to an LD, I'm pretty sure she's no LD - I think in the past she's voted Labour but we genuinely don't talk politics as a couple apart from the very local stuff where her perception of and my knowledge of how local Government functions often collide.

    Yesterday, she suddenly piped up she had no one to vote for at the GE and wasn't going to bother. She told me she couldn't vote for that "lunatic" Corbyn and as a LEAVE voter couldn't back the LDs and was going to vote for Johnson until she read up on the changes to IR35 introduced by Philip Hammond which, as a contractor in financial services, are going to make life much harder for her and cost her money.

    I advised her she could still go to the polling station and spoil her ballot paper and I advised her as to the best way of doing it (or rather what not to do).

    So that's one fewer vote for the Conservatives not that it makes much difference in East Ham but it reminds me it's not all about Brexit and other policy areas can affect people's voting intentions.

    It's also got me thinking about numbers of spoilt ballot papers - in East Ham in 2017 56,633 votes were cast and 179 papers were rejected. That's 0.3% of the total and I don't know if that's a representative share for the UK as a whole. I think there could be a lot more spoilt papers but I suspect there's no market. Any thoughts?

    Funnily enough Mrs Nemtynakht has said the same thing. We would normally both vote Libdem in a south-west former marginal that has gone from 8k lib majority to a 13k Tory majority. We both voted remain, yet we don’t like the revoke policy for the Lib Dem’s. Neither of us like Corbyn, and Mrs N cannot stand Boris. She can’t think of who to vote for and might vote Green. If we had a good local Tory or Labour candidate and they had better leaders I would vote for either Tory or Labour but will probably stick with libdems despite their flagship policy.
    You must be in Sutton and Cheam...
    Sutton and Cheam isn't in the southwest ?
  • Not to mention more harvesting of email addresses: "sign up ...".
    Am assured this morning that the Conservative manifesto will have a significant component on the environment too.

    Everyone wants Greta's vote.....
    I somehow doubt going full Greta will gain the Tories many votes, might even lose them some among the older core vote.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Boris Johnson's poll lead dips but Tories are still 11 points ahead of Labour despite rocky start to campaign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7660017/Boris-Johnsons-poll-lead-dips-Tories-11-points-ahead-Labour.html

    That's just the one we saw yesterday, right?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838
    Well fine. But 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030 will happen anyway on current trends. Market forces will see to that. I can get quite boringly messianic on the subject.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's anecdote time so prepare the salt bucket...

    That keen political animal, Mrs Stodge, has opined on the GE. Now, despite being married to an LD, I'm pretty sure she's no LD - I think in the past she's voted Labour but we genuinely don't talk politics as a couple apart from the very local stuff where her perception of and my knowledge of how local Government functions often collide.

    Yesterday, she suddenly piped up she had no one to vote for at the GE and wasn't going to bother. She told me she couldn't vote for that "lunatic" Corbyn and as a LEAVE voter couldn't back the LDs and was going to vote for Johnson until she read up on the changes to IR35 introduced by Philip Hammond which, as a contractor in financial services, are going to make life much harder for her and cost her money.

    I advised her she could still go to the polling station and spoil her ballot paper and I advised her as to the best way of doing it (or rather what not to do).

    So that's one fewer vote for the Conservatives not that it makes much difference in East Ham but it reminds me it's not all about Brexit and other policy areas can affect people's voting intentions.

    It's also got me thinking about numbers of spoilt ballot papers - in East Ham in 2017 56,633 votes were cast and 179 papers were rejected. That's 0.3% of the total and I don't know if that's a representative share for the UK as a whole. I think there could be a lot more spoilt papers but I suspect there's no market. Any thoughts?

    Funnily enough Mrs Nemtynakht has said the same thing. We would normally both vote Libdem in a south-west former marginal that has gone from 8k lib majority to a 13k Tory majority. We both voted remain, yet we don’t like the revoke policy for the Lib Dem’s. Neither of us like Corbyn, and Mrs N cannot stand Boris. She can’t think of who to vote for and might vote Green. If we had a good local Tory or Labour candidate and they had better leaders I would vote for either Tory or Labour but will probably stick with libdems despite their flagship policy.
    You must be in Sutton and Cheam...
    Sutton and Cheam isn't in the southwest ?
    It is......of London.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    edited November 2019
    Pulpstar said:

    timmo said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's anecdote time so prepare the salt bucket...

    That keen political animal, Mrs Stodge, has opined on the GE. Now, despite being married to an LD, I'm pretty sure she's no LD - I think in the past she's voted Labour but we genuinely don't talk politics as a couple apart from the very local stuff where her perception of and my knowledge of how local Government functions often collide.

    Yesterday, she suddenly piped up she had no one to vote for at the GE and wasn't going to bother. She told me she couldn't vote for that "lunatic" Corbyn and as a LEAVE voter couldn't back the LDs and was going to vote for Johnson until she read up on the changes to IR35 introduced by Philip Hammond which, as a contractor in financial services, are going to make life much harder for her and cost her money.

    I advised her she could still go to the polling station and spoil her ballot paper and I advised her as to the best way of doing it (or rather what not to do).

    So that's one fewer vote for the Conservatives not that it makes much difference in East Ham but it reminds me it's not all about Brexit and other policy areas can affect people's voting intentions.

    It's also got me thinking about numbers of spoilt ballot papers - in East Ham in 2017 56,633 votes were cast and 179 papers were rejected. That's 0.3% of the total and I don't know if that's a representative share for the UK as a whole. I think there could be a lot more spoilt papers but I suspect there's no market. Any thoughts?

    Funnily enough Mrs Nemtynakht has said the same thing. We would normally both vote Libdem in a south-west former marginal that has gone from 8k lib majority to a 13k Tory majority. We both voted remain, yet we don’t like the revoke policy for the Lib Dem’s. Neither of us like Corbyn, and Mrs N cannot stand Boris. She can’t think of who to vote for and might vote Green. If we had a good local Tory or Labour candidate and they had better leaders I would vote for either Tory or Labour but will probably stick with libdems despite their flagship policy.
    You must be in Sutton and Cheam...
    Sutton and Cheam isn't in the southwest ?
    South-West London.

    Outside the M25 does not exist for Londoners.

    But then London is south of Watford so of no consequence anyway.

    (Cough)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    egg said:

    Guardian saying
    The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election.
    Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.

    I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.

    Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.

    Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
    They need to look beyond the Cooper/Miliband generation. There are two broad options.

    1. A moderate such as perhaps Jess Phillips or Caroline Flint.

    2. A sane radical, such as perhaps Clive Lewis, who might have a bit more rigour when it comes to policy, and a determination to embody the rhetoric by actually defending Jews from antisemitism.
    TBH I think the first thing they need to do is come up with a compelling “why”

    Not who.

    They come across as too managerial and technocratic to appeal
  • Boris Johnson's poll lead dips but Tories are still 11 points ahead of Labour despite rocky start to campaign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7660017/Boris-Johnsons-poll-lead-dips-Tories-11-points-ahead-Labour.html

    That's just the one we saw yesterday, right?
    Might be. I was out all yesterday so i missed new polling.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453

    Boris Johnson's poll lead dips but Tories are still 11 points ahead of Labour despite rocky start to campaign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7660017/Boris-Johnsons-poll-lead-dips-Tories-11-points-ahead-Labour.html

    That's just the one we saw yesterday, right?
    Tories should be a bit worried about their share.

    36% seems low for a majority, as Prof.Curtuce says look at the share.
  • nico67 said:

    Ian Austin deal

    The EU parliament has to ratify aswell so there’s little chance of Brexit happening before the end of January .
    EU Parliament can ratify rapidly if its clear the UK Parliament is ratifying. And a healthy Boris majority would be a big sign to the EU Parliament that they can ratify now and they don't need to go through the Queen's Speech rigmarole.
    Their last day of sitting this year is the 19th December. There is no chance at all of getting this ratified this year.
    That's a week after 12/12. A week is a long time in politics.

    If on the morning of the 13/12 and through the weekend its clear that the UK government has a big enough majority and would like to Get Brexit Done before year end, I don't see why the European Parliament can't see the British deadlock is broken and get ratification done between then 16th and 19th.


  • There is obviously big overlap between different names and what can be taught, but the names set the focus. It seems to me that the things we have realised need to be taught in modern life just get shoved into the ever expanding PSHCE presumably without an ever expanding increase in hours?

    I think health is really key, if we can make the next generation 20% less likely to be obese and improve their healthy life expectancy by 5 years is that not far more valuable than teaching them how a volcano works or who was king in 1264 both of which are trivial to find out if you teach internet well.

    A lot of geography would still fit nicely into environment but environment is both more a pressing need and kids would be more focused and motivated by learning environment than geography at the moment.

    Maybe History could be squeezed into citizenship to make room for a foreign language or DT.

    But that is the cart before the horse. To understand the environment you have to first understand the basics of geography as they are taught in school today. Your suggestion is like saying one should study to be a surgeon without first studying basic medicine.
    Not everyone is going to be a world leading scientist, people could understand their environment far better than they have done to date if they are taught more about it. And it is something kids are highly motivated to learn about.
  • nunu2 said:

    Boris Johnson's poll lead dips but Tories are still 11 points ahead of Labour despite rocky start to campaign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7660017/Boris-Johnsons-poll-lead-dips-Tories-11-points-ahead-Labour.html

    That's just the one we saw yesterday, right?
    Tories should be a bit worried about their share.

    36% seems low for a majority, as Prof.Curtuce says look at the share.
    I honestly cant see how they get much more than that.
  • olm said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1192392325462401024?s=19

    Labour with their friends across the world there, winning here

    I doubt anyone would want BJP as friends currently.
    The BJP is a broad church, but includes severe racist, culturally-inflammatory, oppressive, and homphobic policies. Including against migrants and poor Indian nationals who have no ID.
    It also made it official in India that astrology is a "science" :(
    Tbf we've only just stopped homeopathy on the NHS. (Sorry, "our" NHS, as politicians from all parties must refer to it.)
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Ishmael_Z said:

    If millionaires were banned from Parliament, would there be anyone left besides the bar staff? Not that the bar staff couldn't make a better stab at running the country, mind.
    The bar staff are millionaires, if they own their homes. The word needs rebasing.
    The Indian term crore - meaning 10,000,000 - needs to be adopted.
    It’s hellishly difficult dealing with crore, rupees and lakhs though. Please don’t!

    Can’t we just use “bar” like we always used to - 1 bar = 1 million
  • mwadams said:


    Yes and there is loads we can do, we are already good at science. Replace geography with environment at school. We could make degrees related to environment tech and science free, or even give small bursaries for them. We could exempt firms in those sectors from various taxes for the next 20 years and give them easy access to work permits for foreign scientists to allow them to build, recruit and flourish.

    ///
    If we were starting building a curriculum for modern day life from a blank sheet of paper there is no way geography would be in the top ten.
    What? Geography is crucial to understanding a huge amount about why the world is as it is.

    As a matter of interest what would your top ten look like?
    ...

    An interesting selection. Most of those are taught already: the awkwardly named PSHCE doing the health and citizenship duty.

    What about foreign languages or DT? Why do you think History is more useful than Geography? Does Internet need to be a subject all on its own or could it be part of Computing?
    There is obviously big overlap between different names and what can be taught, but the names set the focus. It seems to me that the things we have realised need to be taught in modern life just get shoved into the ever expanding PSHCE presumably without an ever expanding increase in hours?

    I think health is really key, if we can make the next generation 20% less likely to be obese and improve their healthy life expectancy by 5 years is that not far more valuable than teaching them how a volcano works or who was king in 1264 both of which are trivial to find out if you teach internet well.

    A lot of geography would still fit nicely into environment but environment is both more a pressing need and kids would be more focused and motivated by learning environment than geography at the moment.

    Maybe History could be squeezed into citizenship to make room for a foreign language or DT.
    Foreign languages are likely to be largely redundant over the next few decades, with a combination of increased Sino/Anglification of the world and the rate of development of universal translators.

    Far better to teach world history (with some language in that) to understand how the cultures we encounter came to be, surely?
    That was my first suggestion, I would be open to either route. For me health is the biggest change I would like to see.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Speaking to a resident of Ealing Southall at work today,

    'Sharma has treated that constituency like a fiefdom, and there are a lot of BJP supporters in Southall'
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288


    Yes and there is loads we can do, we are already good at science. Replace geography with environment at school. We could make degrees related to environment tech and science free, or even give small bursaries for them. We could exempt firms in those sectors from various taxes for the next 20 years and give them easy access to work permits for foreign scientists to allow them to build, recruit and flourish.

    Replacing geography with environmental studies seems extremely retrograde to me. One of the issues we have is that environmental studies are seen too much in isolation from all other aspects of both human and physical geography and to be successful in understanding environmental impacts our students need that grounding in basic geographic principles.

    Saying the study of geography should be replaced with the study of environment is like saying the study of chemistry should be replaced by the study of only hydrocarbons.
    If we were starting building a curriculum for modern day life from a blank sheet of paper there is no way geography would be in the top ten.
    What? Geography is crucial to understanding a huge amount about why the world is as it is.

    As a matter of interest what would your top ten look like?
    Something like:

    Maths
    English
    Health
    Internet
    Environment
    Science
    Arts
    Sport
    History
    Citizenship
    An interesting selection. Most of those are taught already: the awkwardly named PSHCE doing the health and citizenship duty.

    What about foreign languages or DT? Why do you think History is more useful than Geography? Does Internet need to be a subject all on its own or could it be part of Computing?
    Heavy emphasis on MFLs (or ancient ones) is debatable in my book. I wasted around 60% of my O level effort in passing German only to more or less lose it again in later years.

    They say we're ignorant of languages but the limited opportunity the success of English gives us to being exposed to natural conversation in other languages on a regular basis, compared to the exposure to English of any European in a professional role, means we are always going to be fighting against the grain on this.

    I welcome that Spanish now seems to be preferred to German as (a) more people holiday there year after year and (b) it's relatedness to French and Italian opens up greater future usefulness.

    To me (a) schools' language teaching should always aim to go with the grain of holidaymaking or communication requirements for the social mix in that school (b) high quality point of need language learning through adult education and to businesses should be a priority.
  • olmolm Posts: 125

    olm said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1192392325462401024?s=19

    Labour with their friends across the world there, winning here

    I doubt anyone would want BJP as friends currently.
    The BJP is a broad church, but includes severe racist, culturally-inflammatory, oppressive, and homphobic policies. Including against migrants and poor Indian nationals who have no ID.
    I don't know the specifics but is that even legal?
    I would say not. But that would be for the Indian Supreme Court (and potentially
    international proceedings) to determine. Regardless, it is oppressive and likely to render millions stateless in Assam alone.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-49890663
    Outlines a bit about the NRC (National Register of Citizens) which is being applied in Assam, and mooted for other states, and which is a list of those who can prove they came to India before Bangladeshi independence in 1971.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    I've updated my model with the 60 Unite for Remain seats adjusted. PC gain Ynys Mon and LDs gain Guildford and Portsmouth South.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    I wonder if this election, and more going forward, will see increasing atomisation of news, with different groups listening mostly/exclusively to different sources (traditional TV, certain Youtubers, Facebook, Twitter, and so on), making it difficult to ascertain the breadth and impact of messages.

    For a few months now I've been watching less and less news.

    Yes, me too. Years since I watched the TV news. Radio news bulletins filter through though.
    We are in danger of following America where for the past couple of decades, different sides have their own facts, not just their own opinions, because broadcasters do not need to be impartial, which Fox took as a challenge.

    Social media plays that role here.
    I agree. Much though I may rail at the BBC worldview, when the BBC reports something yoy can be reasonably content it has a significantly higher level of veracity than some post on facebook. And when they do get it wrong (e.g. Lord MacAlpine) they make sure they fully put the record straight. They - and ITN, and Sky - are far from perfect, but better than the model we are moving towards when any half-truth can get an airing


    The reason I don't watch the news these days though is that I want news on demand - therefore from the internet.
    Whereas in the US, it isnt just Fox now. CNN and co have just totally lost their shit. It is 24/7 trump news and regularly so quick to jump on the outrage bus they get it wrong.
    US institutions are tainted across the board in a manner we've yet to see over here.
    Today's example... if the Justice Department were doing its job, as opposed to acting as Trump's personal law firm, Trump's offspring would be facing a charge of witness intimidation
    https://crooksandliars.com/2019/11/don-jr-thug-he-outs-alleged-whistleblower

    Similarly, would we be asking this kind of question of our Supreme Court if we had a PM, of either party, in the kind of hot water Trump finds himself ?
    https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/11/john-roberts-donald-trump-impeachment-taxes-mueller-ukraine.html
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    I wonder if this election, and more going forward, will see increasing atomisation of news, with different groups listening mostly/exclusively to different sources (traditional TV, certain Youtubers, Facebook, Twitter, and so on), making it difficult to ascertain the breadth and impact of messages.

    For a few months now I've been watching less and less news.

    Yes, me too. Years since I watched the TV news. Radio news bulletins filter through though.
    We are in danger of following America where for the past couple of decades, different sides have their own facts, not just their own opinions, because broadcasters do not need to be impartial, which Fox took as a challenge.

    Social media plays that role here.
    I agree. Much though I may rail at the BBC worldview, when the BBC reports something yoy can be reasonably content it has a significantly higher level of veracity than some post on facebook. And when they do get it wrong (e.g. Lord MacAlpine) they make sure they fully put the record straight. They - and ITN, and Sky - are far from perfect, but better than the model we are moving towards when any half-truth can get an airing


    The reason I don't watch the news these days though is that I want news on demand - therefore from the internet.
    Radio 5 live earlier this week:

    The BBC employee and on as an expert, talking news outlets cited The Canary as an outlet without any health warnings at all. Nicky Campbell did have a sharp intake of breath, short exclamation and comment without seriously diminishing the newly enhanced reputation of The Canary significantly.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    egg said:

    Guardian saying
    The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election.
    Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.

    I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.

    Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.

    Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
    They need to look beyond the Cooper/Miliband generation. There are two broad options.

    1. A moderate such as perhaps Jess Phillips or Caroline Flint.

    2. A sane radical, such as perhaps Clive Lewis, who might have a bit more rigour when it comes to policy, and a determination to embody the rhetoric by actually defending Jews from antisemitism.
    I'm not in favour of centrists regaining control, but I have to say that the Corbyn revolution has been remarkably poor at bringing on the next generation - despite all the sound and fury it remains basically Corbyn+McDonnell+Abbott. I think the next leader is likely to be someone with a less clearly-defined political position - e.g. Phillips or Lewis.
    Nick do you have to be so f***** in obvious when you are playing games? Trying to reassure any moderates thinking of leaving not to worry, they just need to hang on
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    Barnesian said:

    The new registrations for a vote are still piling in.

    There have been over 600,000 applications in the last week. Over 50% are for the under 35s. Less than 5% are for the over 65s.

    That is an average of nearly 1,000 new voters per constituency. It could make a difference in several constituencies.

    https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote

    Thanks. Do you know if those %s are particularly different to previous elections? Under 35s far more likely to have moved and also need to register once initially so I cant tell if 50% vs 5% is unusual or not?
    Sorry I don't know.
  • kinabalu said:

    It's why Priti will be doing any debates Boris isn't doing.

    Patel is telegenic and fluent (albeit with narrow vocab and rather noddy sentence construction) but the downside with her is that she is EXTREMELY thick for a front rank politician.

    If the Cons are planning to use her in TV debates they need to be sure that the format will not be conducive to 'debate' in its traditional sense. If things stray into a genuine discussion of any depth whatsoever, she will struggle and there is a risk of something quite embarrassing taking place.

    But so long as it's a matter of just delivering pre-prepared soundbites in a confident unruffled manner - which let's fact it, it probably will be - then, yes, she will be highly effective and is a great choice.
    We all know Johnson is Frit.


  • There is obviously big overlap between different names and what can be taught, but the names set the focus. It seems to me that the things we have realised need to be taught in modern life just get shoved into the ever expanding PSHCE presumably without an ever expanding increase in hours?

    I think health is really key, if we can make the next generation 20% less likely to be obese and improve their healthy life expectancy by 5 years is that not far more valuable than teaching them how a volcano works or who was king in 1264 both of which are trivial to find out if you teach internet well.

    A lot of geography would still fit nicely into environment but environment is both more a pressing need and kids would be more focused and motivated by learning environment than geography at the moment.

    Maybe History could be squeezed into citizenship to make room for a foreign language or DT.

    But that is the cart before the horse. To understand the environment you have to first understand the basics of geography as they are taught in school today. Your suggestion is like saying one should study to be a surgeon without first studying basic medicine.
    Not everyone is going to be a world leading scientist, people could understand their environment far better than they have done to date if they are taught more about it. And it is something kids are highly motivated to learn about.
    They are taught about it. Extensively. But the job of school is to do it based on first principles so that you don't just feed the kids facts but allow them to understand where those facts are grounded and the underlying principles that dictate them. That is the same for every subject.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nunu2 said:

    Boris Johnson's poll lead dips but Tories are still 11 points ahead of Labour despite rocky start to campaign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7660017/Boris-Johnsons-poll-lead-dips-Tories-11-points-ahead-Labour.html

    That's just the one we saw yesterday, right?
    Tories should be a bit worried about their share.

    36% seems low for a majority, as Prof.Curtuce says look at the share.
    was enough in 2010. But yes I think 38/39% more likely by the end of the campaign.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    The new registrations for a vote are still piling in.

    There have been over 600,000 applications in the last week. Over 50% are for the under 35s. Less than 5% are for the over 65s.

    That is an average of nearly 1,000 new voters per constituency. It could make a difference in several constituencies.

    https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote

    Thanks. Do you know if those %s are particularly different to previous elections? Under 35s far more likely to have moved and also need to register once initially so I cant tell if 50% vs 5% is unusual or not?
    Sorry I don't know.
    Looks fairly comparable to last time:

    https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group#from=2017-04-01T00:00:00Z&to=2017-06-01T00:00:00Z
    vs
    https://www.gov.uk/performance/register-to-vote/registrations-by-age-group#from=2019-10-01T00:00:00Z&to=2019-11-01T00:00:00Z
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    148grss said:

    43:10 Liberal Democrat:Green is more generous to the Greens then I expected, even if some of them are forlorn hopes.

    Does that make the 43 the likely realistic limit to Liberal Democrat ambitions in England & Wales? I guess there are some obvious targets, such as Sheffield Hallam, that aren't on the list.

    Dulwich & West Norwood is really going to annoy my step-mother. She's become the most committed Liberal Democrat member since the Brexit referendum, denounces my Dad's decision to stick with voting for the Labour Party as supporting a "Leave Party", and believes that the children on climate strikes should concentrate on stopping Brexit as a higher priority.

    I can't wait to hear her reaction.
    I'm interested in Hitchen and Harpenden. I'm in neighbouring St Albans, which looks to go Con -> LD, I wonder if they think they can shift some activists from St Albans up to H&H and win there. It looked like a promising seat when the 4 parties were at somewhat evens in the polls; now Tories are steaming ahead and BXP are falling, I'm not too sure.
    Ah, yes, there are quite a lot of interesting seats missing form the list. As well as St Albans there is no Cities of Westminster/London, Wokingham, St Ives, Eddisbury, Vauxhall, Leeds North West or Lewes.
    I suspect willingness of local parties to step aside has also been important.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."

    That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.

    What do we think the chances are that somebody is going to leak that Russian interference report during the campaign?
    I'm sure Dominic Grieve has seen a copy. But I'm equally sure he would never do such a thing....
    He’s on the security committee. He’s got a copy. If it was interesting it would already be out there...
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698
    philiph said:

    alb1on said:

    MattW said:

    alb1on said:

    Cookie said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1192392325462401024?s=19

    Labour with their friends across the world there, winning here

    I’d forgotten that Corbyn had waded into the Kashmir conflict. Someone should have had a word a long time ago about self inflicted wounds
    Yes - though I wonder what influence the BJP have in the UK?
    Is this likely to have an impact on British Indians? Genuinely don't know. Are there any marginals where a British - Indian Con-Lab swing might be significant? And does the preaence ofthe BJP in the campaign have an influence in shoring up the Islamic vote for Labour?
    We have several British Hindu clients and members of staff and this has been a burning issue for a while. The outright anger at Corbyn (and indeed Watson) shown is sometimes over this issue very surprising.

    I shared the Sky link with one of them and its apparent it might get a lot of support.

    Anecdote obviously and our clients/staffers are middle-class affluent Hindu's with mostly dual British/Indian nationality.
    It is interesting that this cuts two ways. I play cricket with a lot of lads from Sri Lanka whose attitude to the Indian establishment is 'I am for anything they oppose'. This could drive other minorities in the other direction.
    Is this not also driven eg by the Mumbai Hotel atrocity, and that it has been a foundational issue in India-Pak politics since partition?

    It has always read across to the UK. Back when I was at Uni in Bradford in the 1980s there were many terraced houses with random bricks painted in the colours of the Pakistan Flag.

    Watch Leicester?
    Not sure. What surprised me was the strong views of the Sri Lankans, given that (in my experience and judging by attitudes on the cricket field) they tend to be very laid back.
    Ever heard of the Tamils?
    Yes. Except that the Sri Lankans in my club are Tamils which, given their Hindu identity I would have expected to have given them more affinity to Indian groups. Perhaps I misunderstand the convoluted politics.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 5,191
    mwadams said:


    Yes and there is loads we can do, we are already good at science. Replace geography with environment at school. We could make degrees related to environment tech and science free, or even give small bursaries for them. We could exempt firms in those sectors from various taxes for the next 20 years and give them easy access to work permits for foreign scientists to allow them to build, recruit and flourish.

    ///
    If we were starting building a curriculum for modern day life from a blank sheet of paper there is no way geography would be in the top ten.
    What? Geography is crucial to understanding a huge amount about why the world is as it is.

    As a matter of interest what would your top ten look like?
    ...

    An interesting selection. Most of those are taught already: the awkwardly named PSHCE doing the health and citizenship duty.

    What about foreign languages or DT? Why do you think History is more useful than Geography? Does Internet need to be a subject all on its own or could it be part of Computing?


    I think health is really key, if we can make the next generation 20% less likely to be obese and improve their healthy life expectancy by 5 years is that not far more valuable than teaching them how a volcano works or who was king in 1264 both of which are trivial to find out if you teach internet well.

    A lot of geography would still fit nicely into environment but environment is both more a pressing need and kids would be more focused and motivated by learning environment than geography at the moment.

    Maybe History could be squeezed into citizenship to make room for a foreign language or DT.
    Foreign languages are likely to be largely redundant over the next few decades, with a combination of increased Sino/Anglification of the world and the rate of development of universal translators.

    Far better to teach world history (with some language in that) to understand how the cultures we encounter came to be, surely?
    you could also say teaching music will be redundant, because computers will be making music. or teaching writing will be redundant because people will be using dictation apps.

    the internet says 40% of the world's population is monolingual, a sadly deprived minority.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,236
    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    Great question. It clearly comes from the same pen. Apparently there was a vigorous debate between the merits of "GBD" and the even more dynamic and guttural "Let's Sort It!"

    Dominic Cummings - for it was of course he - eventually plumped for the one we see because "Let's Sort It!" did not actually have the word Brexit in it. The public could therefore interpret the "it" that Boris would be "sorting" as being any one of several different things. The NHS? Schools? Crime? The weather?

    Surely that would be a great strength, I hear people say, but no, not per Dom. Dom wants this election to be about Brexit and Boris feels the same.

    So "Get Brexit Done" it was - and is. We'll be hearing it a lot.
  • Jonathan said:

    The question for me in this GE is not remai n or leave pacts nor anything else

    This election depends on whether Boris can do a Macron and capture the country thereby securing a reasonable majority, no matter how much the opposition try to reign him in

    This is not only the question that has to be answered on the 12th December but will decide Brexit itself.

    Brexit can only happen with Boris capturing the mood of the natiom

    Boris isn’t Macron
    Boris is Trump

    I’m no big fan of Boris, as you know, but Boris isn’t as bad as Trump.

    Trump inhabits his own special circle of delusion, narcissism and bigotry.
    If there is one thing at the moment that annoys me more than anything it is the casual fall from truthfulness, There are genuine differences between systems of socialism, capitalism and a mixed economy which seem to be the systems supported by the various parties. Why do people need to make things up? The biggest one so far is the selling off the NHS nonsense, which just isn’t going to happen and is complete scaremongering. But we will get others including the Tory video showing Keir Starmer not answering a question.
    Yes, I agree with that.

    Maybe the rise of social media drives gross simplification and confirmation bias?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,838
    philiph said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    I wonder if this election, and more going forward, will see increasing atomisation of news, with different groups listening mostly/exclusively to different sources (traditional TV, certain Youtubers, Facebook, Twitter, and so on), making it difficult to ascertain the breadth and impact of messages.

    For a few months now I've been watching less and less news.

    Yes, me too. Years since I watched the TV news. Radio news bulletins filter through though.
    We are in danger of following America where for the past couple of decades, different sides have their own facts, not just their own opinions, because broadcasters do not need to be impartial, which Fox took as a challenge.

    Social media plays that role here.
    I agree. Much though I may rail at the BBC worldview, when the BBC reports something yoy can be reasonably content it has a significantly higher level of veracity than some post on facebook. And when they do get it wrong (e.g. Lord MacAlpine) they make sure they fully put the record straight. They - and ITN, and Sky - are far from perfect, but better than the model we are moving towards when any half-truth can get an airing


    The reason I don't watch the news these days though is that I want news on demand - therefore from the internet.
    Radio 5 live earlier this week:

    The BBC employee and on as an expert, talking news outlets cited The Canary as an outlet without any health warnings at all. Nicky Campbell did have a sharp intake of breath, short exclamation and comment without seriously diminishing the newly enhanced reputation of The Canary significantly.
    Ha - the example I nearly gave was that you don't generally get the BBC quoting stories from the Canary. *rolls eyes*
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    egg said:

    Guardian saying
    The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election.
    Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.

    I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.

    Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.

    Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
    They need to look beyond the Cooper/Miliband generation. There are two broad options.

    1. A moderate such as perhaps Jess Phillips or Caroline Flint.

    2. A sane radical, such as perhaps Clive Lewis, who might have a bit more rigour when it comes to policy, and a determination to embody the rhetoric by actually defending Jews from antisemitism.
    I'm not in favour of centrists regaining control, but I have to say that the Corbyn revolution has been remarkably poor at bringing on the next generation - despite all the sound and fury it remains basically Corbyn+McDonnell+Abbott. I think the next leader is likely to be someone with a less clearly-defined political position - e.g. Phillips or Lewis.
    Nick do you have to be so f***** in obvious when you are playing games? Trying to reassure any moderates thinking of leaving not to worry, they just need to hang on
    Especially when Lewis is a total lunatic wingnut leftie scumbag and Phillips a bizarre fantasist who makes things up as she goes along
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698

    olm said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1192392325462401024?s=19

    Labour with their friends across the world there, winning here

    I doubt anyone would want BJP as friends currently.
    The BJP is a broad church, but includes severe racist, culturally-inflammatory, oppressive, and homphobic policies. Including against migrants and poor Indian nationals who have no ID.
    It also made it official in India that astrology is a "science" :(
    That explains David Tredinnick standing down. He is off to pastures more aligned with his views.
  • olmolm Posts: 125

    olm said:



    You mention XR "in particular seem to oppose any suggested technological solutions"? On what evidence is that said?

    XR has no policy or view on nuclear power or GM (or even 5G for that matter).

    XR is not a political party it is a broad movement with a single fundamental policy, drawing attention to climate change and ecological degradation, pushing for those issues to be at the heart of policy-making, and providing a pathway for those who care about long-term human viability. Nothing more or less.

    Indeed XR say: "Many people within XR will have strong views on all of the above and we want to welcome a variety of views, rather than adopting positions on controversial topics. We believe a social movement is best built as a “broad church” and that respectful discussions should take place within the movement on a variety of topics (honouring our principle and value of no blaming and shaming). XR does not take a position on solutions to the ecological crisis- our third demand is for a Citizens Assembly to come up with a way to deal with the crisis focussing on climate and ecological justice based on being presented with facts from a variety of experts. We focus on the issues that have a clear body of mainstream science with a large consensus of opinion – for example, biodiversity loss and climate change."

    I really like the approach suggested by XR in that last paragraph and would heartily support such an organisation if I felt it existed.

    Do you think the wider public's perception of XR is a broad church with no blaming or shaming? If not, why not?
    I agree about such a body, it being something I would also potentially support.

    I can't say about public perception - as there's little research on that. And those who publicise their discontent are unlikely to be those who would be changed or informed by the publicity - whereas others would be (and some media, scientists, and decision-makers in tow).

    I think the main point is getting climate and biodiversity damage higher on the agenda. And that certainly has happened. There is a cost, but that cost is, I would argue, thus far worthwhile on balance, to achieve for the greater good.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.

  • And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
  • The N.I.H. and the F.B.I. have begun a vast effort to root out scientists who they say are stealing biomedical research for other countries from institutions across the United States. Almost all of the incidents they uncovered and that are under investigation involve scientists of Chinese descent, including naturalized American citizens, allegedly stealing for China. Seventy-one institutions, including many of the most prestigious medical schools in the United States, are now investigating 180 individual cases involving potential theft of intellectual property.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/04/health/china-nih-scientists.html
  • 148grss said:
    I agree that this is a plausible best case scenario for Labour, which means they can lose some seats to the Tories provided that the Tories lose plenty of seats to the SNP and Lib Dems.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    Looking for racism elsewhere as a crutch for labours antisemitism is one of the many unseemly aspects of the cancer infesting the former workers party
  • Jonathan said:

    The question for me in this GE is not remai n or leave pacts nor anything else

    This election depends on whether Boris can do a Macron and capture the country thereby securing a reasonable majority, no matter how much the opposition try to reign him in

    This is not only the question that has to be answered on the 12th December but will decide Brexit itself.

    Brexit can only happen with Boris capturing the mood of the natiom

    Boris isn’t Macron
    Boris is Trump

    I’m no big fan of Boris, as you know, but Boris isn’t as bad as Trump.

    Trump inhabits his own special circle of delusion, narcissism and bigotry.
    If there is one thing at the moment that annoys me more than anything it is the casual fall from truthfulness, There are genuine differences between systems of socialism, capitalism and a mixed economy which seem to be the systems supported by the various parties. Why do people need to make things up? The biggest one so far is the selling off the NHS nonsense, which just isn’t going to happen and is complete scaremongering. But we will get others including the Tory video showing Keir Starmer not answering a question.
    Yes, I agree with that.

    Maybe the rise of social media drives gross simplification and confirmation bias?
    I think that social media is just the form in which the lack of truthfulness is expressing itself, rather than the cause.

    I think the cause is the failure of politicians on all sides to come up with a convincing strategy or narrative that deals with the negative consequences of globalisation. Into that vacuum of political leadership all sorts of glib and/or toxic ideas can flourish, as well as the charlatans that peddle them.
  • I am sure TSE will be interested to know...


    https://twitter.com/EvanMcMullin/status/1192097434521886720?s=19
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1192426964369465344?s=19

    Unusual for the hysterical, panic ridden idiot Hodges to hit the nail on the head but he does here

  • And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    That works both ways, surely? Never mind the racist mote in my party's eye...
  • alb1onalb1on Posts: 698


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    You and others keep accusing people of whataboutism (I have been the target several times). Pointing out that the Conservatives have a big problem (including some people at the top) does not make us Labour supporters or defenders (I am not a member of any party). Labour have a big problem but so do the Conservatives, and to suggest otherwise is to excuse racism - presumably for political advantage.

    Neither party can be proud of their record.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    Brom said:

    nunu2 said:

    Boris Johnson's poll lead dips but Tories are still 11 points ahead of Labour despite rocky start to campaign

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7660017/Boris-Johnsons-poll-lead-dips-Tories-11-points-ahead-Labour.html

    That's just the one we saw yesterday, right?
    Tories should be a bit worried about their share.

    36% seems low for a majority, as Prof.Curtuce says look at the share.
    was enough in 2010. But yes I think 38/39% more likely by the end of the campaign.
    Tories didnt get a majority in 2010? And in 2015 they only got one because Libdems were in utter collapse.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192427361972690944?s=19

    Actual votes to pour over and obsess about!
  • kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    It has the ring of a mad doctor advocating amputation to a dubious patient. It begs the question "why, why can't we do useful things instead if even you accept that there are other actually useful things that need doing?".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,213
    I'm pleased the economic news & Brexit impact assessments are so good that the Saj felt we didn't need a report on it.

  • And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.

    You'll have to do better than making weak points to try to mitigate/justify, it doesn't matter what, the hatred towards muslims in part of the Tory Party and both prejudices are comparible and both are contained within the party.
  • Interesting this whole Islamphobia in the Tories, not too bad, anti semitism in labour awful, narrative we have been getting for several years now.

    I just can't put my finger on why people in general would be unconcerned at prejudice against the predominantly non white muslims. Just can't put my finger on it.
  • Cookie said:

    Well fine. But 80% of electricity from renewables by 2030 will happen anyway on current trends. Market forces will see to that. I can get quite boringly messianic on the subject.
    Yes, it's a disappointingly low-wattage pledge. Nothing on the sectors of the economy that will be harder to decarbonise like agriculture, transport, construction, industry. And insulation is all well and good, but you still need to do something about the gas used for space heating/cooking.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,254
    Cookie said:

    philiph said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    I wonder if this election, and more going forward, will see increasing atomisation of news, with different groups listening mostly/exclusively to different sources (traditional TV, certain Youtubers, Facebook, Twitter, and so on), making it difficult to ascertain the breadth and impact of messages.

    For a few months now I've been watching less and less news.

    Yes, me too. Years since I watched the TV news. Radio news bulletins filter through though.
    We are in danger of following America where for the past couple of decades, different sides have their own facts, not just their own opinions, because broadcasters do not need to be impartial, which Fox took as a challenge.

    Social media plays that role here.
    I agree. Much though I may rail at the BBC worldview, when the BBC reports something yoy can be reasonably content it has a significantly higher level of veracity than some post on facebook. And when they do get it wrong (e.g. Lord MacAlpine) they make sure they fully put the record straight. They - and ITN, and Sky - are far from perfect, but better than the model we are moving towards when any half-truth can get an airing


    The reason I don't watch the news these days though is that I want news on demand - therefore from the internet.
    Radio 5 live earlier this week:

    The BBC employee and on as an expert, talking news outlets cited The Canary as an outlet without any health warnings at all. Nicky Campbell did have a sharp intake of breath, short exclamation and comment without seriously diminishing the newly enhanced reputation of The Canary significantly.
    Ha - the example I nearly gave was that you don't generally get the BBC quoting stories from the Canary. *rolls eyes*
    I don't see then BBC as reliable in detail anymore, especially on the news channels. There are examples every week. And the website seems to have turned into a gossip mag, after a takeover from BBC 5 type teenyboppers.

    Classic example: the Daily Politics swallowed a report around "only 1% disabled people in Parliament - 5 people". Turned out to be a list of people with one type of disabiility, with one type of politics.

    But they claimed to represent all disabled people on a max possible count.

    Their Parliamentary numbers did not even include the PM Theresa May or anybody else with diabetes.

    Don't overestimate the BBC.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    egg said:

    Guardian saying
    The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election.
    Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.

    I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.

    Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.

    Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
    They need to look beyond the Cooper/Miliband generation. There are two broad options.

    1. A moderate such as perhaps Jess Phillips or Caroline Flint.

    2. A sane radical, such as perhaps Clive Lewis, who might have a bit more rigour when it comes to policy, and a determination to embody the rhetoric by actually defending Jews from antisemitism.
    I'm not in favour of centrists regaining control, but I have to say that the Corbyn revolution has been remarkably poor at bringing on the next generation - despite all the sound and fury it remains basically Corbyn+McDonnell+Abbott. I think the next leader is likely to be someone with a less clearly-defined political position - e.g. Phillips or Lewis.
    Nick do you have to be so f***** in obvious when you are playing games? Trying to reassure any moderates thinking of leaving not to worry, they just need to hang on
    Especially when Lewis is a total lunatic wingnut leftie scumbag and Phillips a bizarre fantasist who makes things up as she goes along
    She would get on well with Johnson if that’s the case
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    McDonnell coming across as vile on the 1pm News, smearing Austin as a Tory stooge. Worse, he's cheered on by the Labour supporters in attendance. Grim.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605
    On Sporting Index, I see the PC spread has been suspended and the LD spread has gone from 41-46 to 42-47.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Sean_F said:

    148grss said:

    43:10 Liberal Democrat:Green is more generous to the Greens then I expected, even if some of them are forlorn hopes.

    Does that make the 43 the likely realistic limit to Liberal Democrat ambitions in England & Wales? I guess there are some obvious targets, such as Sheffield Hallam, that aren't on the list.

    Dulwich & West Norwood is really going to annoy my step-mother. She's become the most committed Liberal Democrat member since the Brexit referendum, denounces my Dad's decision to stick with voting for the Labour Party as supporting a "Leave Party", and believes that the children on climate strikes should concentrate on stopping Brexit as a higher priority.

    I can't wait to hear her reaction.
    I'm interested in Hitchen and Harpenden. I'm in neighbouring St Albans, which looks to go Con -> LD, I wonder if they think they can shift some activists from St Albans up to H&H and win there. It looked like a promising seat when the 4 parties were at somewhat evens in the polls; now Tories are steaming ahead and BXP are falling, I'm not too sure.
    Ah, yes, there are quite a lot of interesting seats missing form the list. As well as St Albans there is no Cities of Westminster/London, Wokingham, St Ives, Eddisbury, Vauxhall, Leeds North West or Lewes.
    St. Alban's ought to be won by the Lib Dems, but they seem to keep punching below their demographic weight there, In Parliamentary elections.
    There should be substantial lib dem gains in the West. Brexit is not the most important thing, the general bloodimindedness of West Country folk comes into play....
  • Barnesian said:

    I've updated my model with the 60 Unite for Remain seats adjusted. PC gain Ynys Mon and LDs gain Guildford and Portsmouth South.

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yIHH_ZtcH9w9JF5e8WwYD6QuhOhlVwCO_GboafT6kfc/edit?usp=sharing

    Guildford and Portsmouth South? Wow, that seems to be a massive constituency! :lol:
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,129
    edited November 2019

    McDonnell coming across as vile on the 1pm News, smearing Austin as a Tory stooge. Worse, he's cheered on by the Labour supporters in attendance. Grim.

    Wait until he gets his hands on the levers of power....

  • And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    Looking for racism elsewhere as a crutch for labours antisemitism is one of the many unseemly aspects of the cancer infesting the former workers party
    That's a seriously poor take on this. Do you doubt the real lived experiences of many muslim tories and former tories up to this very day who say the Party has a chronic problem with it. Baroness Warsi, and others, were commenting on it this morning. I'm no fan of Corbyn and labour but I'm also no fan of racism or using it to make a point about an opponent. I would sooner it was tackled.

    Also why is discussion of hatred at female politicians online always seems to be about the likes of Jess Phillips, Stella Creasy or Yvette Cooper. Diane Abbott rarely gets a mention and she is the most attacked woman politician by a mile. Can't put my finger on it.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    nichomar said:

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    egg said:

    Guardian saying
    The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election.
    Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.

    I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.

    Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.

    Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
    They need to look beyond the Cooper/Miliband generation. There are two broad options.

    1. A moderate such as perhaps Jess Phillips or Caroline Flint.

    2. A sane radical, such as perhaps Clive Lewis, who might have a bit more rigour when it comes to policy, and a determination to embody the rhetoric by actually defending Jews from antisemitism.
    I'm not in favour of centrists regaining control, but I have to say that the Corbyn revolution has been remarkably poor at bringing on the next generation - despite all the sound and fury it remains basically Corbyn+McDonnell+Abbott. I think the next leader is likely to be someone with a less clearly-defined political position - e.g. Phillips or Lewis.
    Nick do you have to be so f***** in obvious when you are playing games? Trying to reassure any moderates thinking of leaving not to worry, they just need to hang on
    Especially when Lewis is a total lunatic wingnut leftie scumbag and Phillips a bizarre fantasist who makes things up as she goes along
    She would get on well with Johnson if that’s the case
    If shes not making up stories about him and her in the voting lobby with her pal the shouty sherriff woman
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Charles said:

    "At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."

    That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.

    What do we think the chances are that somebody is going to leak that Russian interference report during the campaign?
    I'm sure Dominic Grieve has seen a copy. But I'm equally sure he would never do such a thing....
    He’s on the security committee. He’s got a copy. If it was interesting it would already be out there...
    Not this nonsense from you again. Are you really suggesting that the chair of the Select Committee which wrote the report would - or should - leak it?

    Or that people who are trained to keep secrets and who understand the importance of being thought of as trustworthy would do so?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875

    148grss said:
    I agree that this is a plausible best case scenario for Labour, which means they can lose some seats to the Tories provided that the Tories lose plenty of seats to the SNP and Lib Dems.
    The SNP promsiign to put Corbyn into power is the dog that hasn't barked yet this election.

    It was very powerful in 2015 - the only reason the Tories might not want to hammer the "Corbyn in Sturgoen's pocket" line is because Sturgeon might come across as a moderating influence!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    148grss said:
    Sounds about right. Interestingly, the bar is set so low for Labour mainly because the Tories have wrecked their relationship with so many of the other players.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    GET BORIS DONE. 😆
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    It has the ring of a mad doctor advocating amputation to a dubious patient. It begs the question "why, why can't we do useful things instead if even you accept that there are other actually useful things that need doing?".
    To me it lacks the hopey changey stuff that wins elections. Nobody ever got their dream holiday, wedding or job "done", they enjoyed every minute of it. "Get it done" makes it clear that Brexit is a slog through muddy trenches in a fight that nobody is really sure holds meaning any more.

    Although I'm sure the argument goes: fervent brexiteers will hear it and realise the Conservatives are the only game in town to deliver Brexit - BXP won't. The undecideds and people who just want it over one way or the other (this is what I hear most from the non political people in my life - "we just want it over now") will hear "get it done and we can all move on".
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    Nonetheless the Tories, if they were wise and genuine about addressing racism in their own ranks, should have an inquiry before any problem gets as bad as has happened in Labour.

    They could, for instance, follow the excellent advice set out here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
  • olm said:

    olm said:



    You mention XR "in particular seem to oppose any suggested technological solutions"? On what evidence is that said?

    XR has no policy or view on nuclear power or GM (or even 5G for that matter).

    XR is not a political party it is a broad movement with a single fundamental policy, drawing attention to climate change and ecological degradation, pushing for those issues to be at the heart of policy-making, and providing a pathway for those who care about long-term human viability. Nothing more or less.

    Indeed XR say: "Many people within XR will have strong views on all of the above and we want to welcome a variety of views, rather than adopting positions on controversial topics. We believe a social movement is best built as a “broad church” and that respectful discussions should take place within the movement on a variety of topics (honouring our principle and value of no blaming and shaming). XR does not take a position on solutions to the ecological crisis- our third demand is for a Citizens Assembly to come up with a way to deal with the crisis focussing on climate and ecological justice based on being presented with facts from a variety of experts. We focus on the issues that have a clear body of mainstream science with a large consensus of opinion – for example, biodiversity loss and climate change."

    I really like the approach suggested by XR in that last paragraph and would heartily support such an organisation if I felt it existed.

    Do you think the wider public's perception of XR is a broad church with no blaming or shaming? If not, why not?
    I agree about such a body, it being something I would also potentially support.

    I can't say about public perception - as there's little research on that. And those who publicise their discontent are unlikely to be those who would be changed or informed by the publicity - whereas others would be (and some media, scientists, and decision-makers in tow).

    I think the main point is getting climate and biodiversity damage higher on the agenda. And that certainly has happened. There is a cost, but that cost is, I would argue, thus far worthwhile on balance, to achieve for the greater good.
    My perception of XR is almost the opposite of their stated objectives you quoted - I wouldnt see them as a broad church and would see them as blaming and shaming. I dont think I am unusual in that thinking, however, I shall keep on open mind and agree with the spirit of what they are trying to do, just not their methods to date.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    148grss said:
    Sounds about right. Interestingly, the bar is set so low for Labour mainly because the Tories have wrecked their relationship with so many of the other players.
    I'd say net gains or standing still is the Labour best case scenario, but that obviously means with losses to SNP and Lib Dems they need about 10 net gains from the Tories. On Current polling they are looking at 50 net losses. So to get their aim I think they need to be polling within 3 points of the blues. The Tories need an 8 point lead for a majority with the current swings. The result will probably be somewhere between the two IMO.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    Looking for racism elsewhere as a crutch for labours antisemitism is one of the many unseemly aspects of the cancer infesting the former workers party
    That's a seriously poor take on this. Do you doubt the real lived experiences of many muslim tories and former tories up to this very day who say the Party has a chronic problem with it. Baroness Warsi, and others, were commenting on it this morning. I'm no fan of Corbyn and labour but I'm also no fan of racism or using it to make a point about an opponent. I would sooner it was tackled.

    Also why is discussion of hatred at female politicians online always seems to be about the likes of Jess Phillips, Stella Creasy or Yvette Cooper. Diane Abbott rarely gets a mention and she is the most attacked woman politician by a mile. Can't put my finger on it.
    And yet, having never mentioned the Islamophobia issue myself, as soon as I or others bring up antisemitism the crutch comes out. Whatabout! Whatabout! I'm not talking about Tory race relations I'm talking about the racist labour party's problem with the Jewish community.
    Others will have to speak to their views.
    Labourites stamping their little feet because their racism is in the spotlight and they think other racists should be tarred with the same brush is grotesque. As are labour. A cancer.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    It has the ring of a mad doctor advocating amputation to a dubious patient. It begs the question "why, why can't we do useful things instead if even you accept that there are other actually useful things that need doing?".
    To me it lacks the hopey changey stuff that wins elections. Nobody ever got their dream holiday, wedding or job "done", they enjoyed every minute of it. "Get it done" makes it clear that Brexit is a slog through muddy trenches in a fight that nobody is really sure holds meaning any more.

    Although I'm sure the argument goes: fervent brexiteers will hear it and realise the Conservatives are the only game in town to deliver Brexit - BXP won't. The undecideds and people who just want it over one way or the other (this is what I hear most from the non political people in my life - "we just want it over now") will hear "get it done and we can all move on".
    It also makes Brexit sound like an unwelcome distraction.

    Still, my two point programme for the country to advance requires Remainers to accept that they lost and for Leavers to accept that Brexit has failed. The slogan might allow for progress on both fronts.
  • eggegg Posts: 1,749
    edited November 2019

    timmo said:

    stodge said:

    Morning again all :)

    It's anecdote time so prepare the salt bucket...

    That keen political animal, Mrs Stodge, has opined on the GE. Now, despite being married to an LD, I'm pretty sure she's no LD - I think in the past she's voted Labour but we genuinely don't talk politics as a couple apart from the very local stuff where her perception of and my knowledge of how local Government functions often collide.

    Yesterday, she suddenly piped up she had no one to vote for at the GE and wasn't going to bother. She told me she couldn't vote for that "lunatic" Corbyn and as a LEAVE voter couldn't back the LDs and was going to vote for Johnson until she read up on the changes to IR35 introduced by Philip Hammond which, as a contractor in financial services, are going to make life much harder for her and cost her money.

    I advised her she could still go to the polling station and spoil her ballot paper and I advised her as to the best way of doing it (or rather what not to do).

    So that's one fewer vote for the Conservatives not that it makes much difference in East Ham but it reminds me it's not all about Brexit and other policy areas can affect people's voting intentions.

    It's also got me thinking about numbers of spoilt ballot papers - in East Ham in 2017 56,633 votes were cast and 179 papers were rejected. That's 0.3% of the total and I don't know if that's a representative share for the UK as a whole. I think there could be a lot more spoilt papers but I suspect there's no market. Any thoughts?

    Funnily enough Mrs Nemtynakht has said the same thing. We would normally both vote Libdem in a south-west former marginal that has gone from 8k lib majority to a 13k Tory majority. We both voted remain, yet we don’t like the revoke policy for the Lib Dem’s. Neither of us like Corbyn, and Mrs N cannot stand Boris. She can’t think of who to vote for and might vote Green. If we had a good local Tory or Labour candidate and they had better leaders I would vote for either Tory or Labour but will probably stick with libdems despite their flagship policy.
    You must be in Sutton and Cheam...
    No Thornbury and Yate. We’ve had lots of Lib Dem’s leaflets, and if our numpty non-entity Tory MP Luke Hall is good at anything it is pumping out regular leaflets - they all go straight in the recycling box - I read PB.com to get a broad view of political news!
    No one has mentioned T and Y yet. Is it same seat Webb held? Is could be in play?
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    It has the ring of a mad doctor advocating amputation to a dubious patient. It begs the question "why, why can't we do useful things instead if even you accept that there are other actually useful things that need doing?".
    To me it lacks the hopey changey stuff that wins elections. Nobody ever got their dream holiday, wedding or job "done", they enjoyed every minute of it. "Get it done" makes it clear that Brexit is a slog through muddy trenches in a fight that nobody is really sure holds meaning any more.

    Although I'm sure the argument goes: fervent brexiteers will hear it and realise the Conservatives are the only game in town to deliver Brexit - BXP won't. The undecideds and people who just want it over one way or the other (this is what I hear most from the non political people in my life - "we just want it over now") will hear "get it done and we can all move on".
    I think those who are still excited to see Brexit happen will like it, but more importantly it will resonate with a huge swathe of people who are sick to death of the subject.

    The promise of relief from suffering can be more potent than the promise of unalloyed delight.

    Get Brexit Done - and Then Relax! :wink:
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good afternoon. Does anyone have a list of the seats where the LDs aren't standing?
  • blueblue said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    It has the ring of a mad doctor advocating amputation to a dubious patient. It begs the question "why, why can't we do useful things instead if even you accept that there are other actually useful things that need doing?".
    To me it lacks the hopey changey stuff that wins elections. Nobody ever got their dream holiday, wedding or job "done", they enjoyed every minute of it. "Get it done" makes it clear that Brexit is a slog through muddy trenches in a fight that nobody is really sure holds meaning any more.

    Although I'm sure the argument goes: fervent brexiteers will hear it and realise the Conservatives are the only game in town to deliver Brexit - BXP won't. The undecideds and people who just want it over one way or the other (this is what I hear most from the non political people in my life - "we just want it over now") will hear "get it done and we can all move on".
    I think those who are still excited to see Brexit happen will like it, but more importantly it will resonate with a huge swathe of people who are sick to death of the subject.

    The promise of relief from suffering can be more potent than the promise of unalloyed delight.

    Get Brexit Done - and Then Relax! :wink:
    I imagine that many people will be seriously disappointed next year when they discover that "Get Brexit Done" actually meant "Get Brexit Started", with no relaxation in sight.
  • Based on my internet experience, it’s safe to say that both a) the election has started; and b) I’m slap bang in the target demographic.

    Sigh..... It’ll be a long month of closing down adverts.
  • Have we noted this?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/brexit-party-chairman-richard-tice-expected-to-stand-in-hartlepool

    As an aside, I was amused by this bit at the end:

    Jonathan Brash, a local Labour party official, said: “Hartlepool doesn’t need southern elites … being parachuted into our town to tell us what to do. He doesn’t live here, he’s barely even visited Hartlepool.

    “What does Richard Tice know about Hartlepool and challenges facing local residents? What does he know about child poverty, the devastating impact of public service cuts, what it’s like to live in communities where there are too few police officers and too few jobs?

    “He doesn’t know our town, he doesn’t know our history, he doesn’t know our people and they will not accept being used for this cheap political stunt. Hartlepool needs an MP that puts people before privilege, who puts Hartlepool first.”


    That's an official of the Hartlepool Labour Party, the one which had Peter Mandelson as its MP for 12 years.

  • And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.

    You'll have to do better than making weak points to try to mitigate/justify, it doesn't matter what, the hatred towards muslims in part of the Tory Party and both prejudices are comparible and both are contained within the party.
    Utter bollocks. Trying to tar everyone with the same brush to excuse your own failings.

    Read, re-read and read again Richard Nabavi’s post from earlier today on this thread until you get it into your thick skull.
  • kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    It has the ring of a mad doctor advocating amputation to a dubious patient. It begs the question "why, why can't we do useful things instead if even you accept that there are other actually useful things that need doing?".
    To me it lacks the hopey changey stuff that wins elections. Nobody ever got their dream holiday, wedding or job "done", they enjoyed every minute of it. "Get it done" makes it clear that Brexit is a slog through muddy trenches in a fight that nobody is really sure holds meaning any more.

    Although I'm sure the argument goes: fervent brexiteers will hear it and realise the Conservatives are the only game in town to deliver Brexit - BXP won't. The undecideds and people who just want it over one way or the other (this is what I hear most from the non political people in my life - "we just want it over now") will hear "get it done and we can all move on".
    It also makes Brexit sound like an unwelcome distraction.

    Still, my two point programme for the country to advance requires Remainers to accept that they lost and for Leavers to accept that Brexit has failed. The slogan might allow for progress on both fronts.
    What would that progress look like?

    That acceptance doesn’t leave many obvious political paths as a way forward.
  • Cyclefree said:


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    Nonetheless the Tories, if they were wise and genuine about addressing racism in their own ranks, should have an inquiry before any problem gets as bad as has happened in Labour.

    They could, for instance, follow the excellent advice set out here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.

    I agree.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,561
    edited November 2019

    olm said:

    olm said:



    You mention XR "in particular seem to oppose any suggested technological solutions"? On what evidence is that said?

    XR has no policy or view on nuclear power or GM (or even 5G for that matter).

    XR is not a political party it is a broad movement with a single fundamental policy, drawing attention to climate change and ecological degradation, pushing for those issues to be at the heart of policy-making, and providing a pathway for those who care about long-term human viability. Nothing more or less.

    Indeed XR say: "Many people within XR will have strong views on all of the above and we want to welcome a variety of views, rather than adopting positions on controversial topics. We believe a social movement is best built as a “broad church” and that respectful discussions should take place within the movement on a variety of topics (honouring our principle and value of no blaming and shaming). XR does not take a position on solutions to the ecological crisis- our third demand is for a Citizens Assembly to come up with a way to deal with the crisis focussing on climate and ecological justice based on being presented with facts from a variety of experts. We focus on the issues that have a clear body of mainstream science with a large consensus of opinion – for example, biodiversity loss and climate change."

    I really like the approach suggested by XR in that last paragraph and would heartily support such an organisation if I felt it existed.

    Do you think the wider public's perception of XR is a broad church with no blaming or shaming? If not, why not?
    I agree about such a body, it being something I would also potentially support.

    I can't say about public perception - as there's little research on that. And those who publicise their discontent are unlikely to be those who would be changed or informed by the publicity - whereas others would be (and some media, scientists, and decision-makers in tow).

    I think the main point is getting climate and biodiversity damage higher on the agenda. And that certainly has happened. There is a cost, but that cost is, I would argue, thus far worthwhile on balance, to achieve for the greater good.
    My perception of XR is almost the opposite of their stated objectives you quoted - I wouldnt see them as a broad church and would see them as blaming and shaming. I dont think I am unusual in that thinking, however, I shall keep on open mind and agree with the spirit of what they are trying to do, just not their methods to date.
    Not sure that "respectful discussion" is what they are best known for yet. Must try harder. If they are such a broad church with no opinions of their own why do they seem so dismissive of our government's position?

  • camelcamel Posts: 815

    148grss said:
    Sounds about right. Interestingly, the bar is set so low for Labour mainly because the Tories have wrecked their relationship with so many of the other players.

    It looks like a fair analysis. Corbyn is about 10-15 gains away from Number 10.

    I disagree that the Tories have wrecked their relationship with so many other players. They've hardly ever had a relationship.

    2010 was unusual in that the stars aligned such that both the Tories and the Libdems were led by Orange Bookers - there was hardly a fag paper between the likes of David Laws and Ed Davey and George Osborne and Philip Hammond.

    In contrast the Tory crews of 2001 and 2005 led by Hague and Howard would have been miles apart from the LibDem crew led by Charlie. Same in 1997 and 1987 (alliance).. There might have been some alignment between Major 1992 and Ashdown, but even then Major wasn't in control of his right wing so would it would have been hugely unlikley.

    I understand that the DUP aligned though not allied with the Tories in 2017, but everyone knew that the DUP would cry betrayal at some stage. That's what they do (though to be fair, they were betrayed). The tories worked well with/were the same as the UUP but they're not around now, and the DUP is a different beast.

    In short, except for the unique circumstances of 2010, the Tories have never had much by way of viable relationships with other parties. I assume this is because (at least until recently) the Tories have been a very broad church, a coalition of people in themselves ranging from Berveridge type liberals to swivel eyed loons.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    AlistairM said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    AlistairM said:

    On the Wokingham poll. I was born and brought up there and my parents still live there on a rather leafy cul-de-sac. My father voted Leave and my mother Remain. Despite being almost lifelong Tory voters they both voted LibDem in the last locals. John Redwood is not popular even putting his views on Brexit to one side.

    Wokingham has had a massive influx of new residents with vast swathes of fields being obliterated by new builds (one of the reasons I moved out of the area 7 years ago). My mother tell me that these people are likely to be more LibDem leaning.

    I am not surprised by the poll and I think at least my Mother is tempted to vote LD. If she and others like her do then Redwood could well lose. I'm not a Redwood fan despite being a Leaver but I pointed out the dangers of voting LD and letting Corbyn in through the back door. Both my parents believe Corbyn would be an absolute disaster for the country.

    Bottom line is that I would not be surprised if the LDs win in Wokingham but will people like my Mother at the last minute think the risk of voting LD is worth it in the privacy of the polling booth?

    The LDs candidate is ex Tory MP Philip Lee
    Going to love seeing all those LibDem activists pounding the pavement for HIM!
    I know Wokingham from growing up close by and living there a few years ago (sh!t it’s more like a decade and a half now). Most people who lived there traditionally worked in the tech sector in Reading or Bracknell, with a minority of commuters to London (there’s a direct train link).

    Do we think that the new residents there are more likely to be London commuters, rather than more local workers?

    The poll seems generous to the LDs, but as @AlistairM says above, the closeness of it might be enough to persuade people to go back to backing Redwood. The residents of Wokingham definitely won’t want to see Corbyn form a government, irrespective of their views on Brexit.
    The direct train link to Waterloo from Wokingham is painfully slow. It is 32 miles out but takes over an hour. In comparison where I am now on Bucks/Ox borders we are 38 miles out but you can get in in 35 minutes. I don't think there will be many more London commuters.
    I think it would be viable to travel Wokingham to Reading by car, then Reading to Paddington (?) by fast train. Expensive but doable
  • alb1on said:


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    You and others keep accusing people of whataboutism (I have been the target several times). Pointing out that the Conservatives have a big problem (including some people at the top) does not make us Labour supporters or defenders (I am not a member of any party). Labour have a big problem but so do the Conservatives, and to suggest otherwise is to excuse racism - presumably for political advantage.

    Neither party can be proud of their record.
    Right. So if I disagree with your take on this I’m excusing racism.

    The issue in the Conservative Party should absolutely be fully investigated. But it is nothing like the anti-semitism that infects the Labour Party from top to toe. The leader of the Conservative party hasn’t liked anti-Islamic graffiti or tropes, he hasn’t endorsed or associated consistently with anti-Islamic groups, he doesn’t have legions of followers who sledge Muslim followers and members with rank islamophobia when they dare to criticise him. Muslim Conservative groups haven’t totally distanced themselves from the party nor started to put guards on the doors of mosques as a consequence.

    Reducto ad absurdium might make you feel better about confirming your political choices and view of the world but it doesn’t make it true.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    kyf_100 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Is "Get Brexit Done" as good as "Take Back Control" ?

    It's certainly not triumphalist. "Just get it done" implies an obligation to finish a difficult, unpleasant, onerous task. A sense of relief when it is over.

    Although perhaps that is the mood of the nation now. I'm sure it has been focus grouped to death.
    It has the ring of a mad doctor advocating amputation to a dubious patient. It begs the question "why, why can't we do useful things instead if even you accept that there are other actually useful things that need doing?".
    To me it lacks the hopey changey stuff that wins elections. Nobody ever got their dream holiday, wedding or job "done", they enjoyed every minute of it. "Get it done" makes it clear that Brexit is a slog through muddy trenches in a fight that nobody is really sure holds meaning any more.

    Although I'm sure the argument goes: fervent brexiteers will hear it and realise the Conservatives are the only game in town to deliver Brexit - BXP won't. The undecideds and people who just want it over one way or the other (this is what I hear most from the non political people in my life - "we just want it over now") will hear "get it done and we can all move on".
    It also makes Brexit sound like an unwelcome distraction.

    Still, my two point programme for the country to advance requires Remainers to accept that they lost and for Leavers to accept that Brexit has failed. The slogan might allow for progress on both fronts.
    Unlikely.
    Only a strong dose of unpleasant reality is likely to accomplish that.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    blueblue said:

    148grss said:
    I agree that this is a plausible best case scenario for Labour, which means they can lose some seats to the Tories provided that the Tories lose plenty of seats to the SNP and Lib Dems.
    The SNP promsiign to put Corbyn into power is the dog that hasn't barked yet this election.

    It was very powerful in 2015 - the only reason the Tories might not want to hammer the "Corbyn in Sturgoen's pocket" line is because Sturgeon might come across as a moderating influence!
    I think Sturgeon is more popular amongst some on the left in England than Alex Salmond. Many would see Corbyn in Sturgeon's pocket and go "well, that would moderate him". I know at one point there were jokes about if the SNP stood south of the border they could really replace the LDs as the 3rd party in the UK.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,561
    Who do you vote for if you want a balanced budget and all the promised debt repayment?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236

    Cyclefree said:


    And yet, we still have two or three pb regulars who are prepared to campaign for them.

    I wish we had sane voices like Southam and Jonathan in charge of the Labour Party.

    People I respect.
    How is the inquiry into Conservative Islamophobia proceeding? The one Boris pledged to establish -- or did that get filed along with the Russia report?
    I refer you to Richard Nabavi’s excellent post earlier on this thread.

    Yes, I suspect there may be a problem with low-level islamophobia in some parts of the Conservative Party. No, it is nothing like the universal anti-semitism that now corrupts the Labour Party from top-to-toe.

    You’ll have to do better than weak whataboutism.
    Nonetheless the Tories, if they were wise and genuine about addressing racism in their own ranks, should have an inquiry before any problem gets as bad as has happened in Labour.

    They could, for instance, follow the excellent advice set out here - http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/03/08/what-might-the-tories-learn-from-labour/.
    I agree.
    Which is a good thing.
    But will it bother you when, almost inevitably, they don’t ?
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    edited November 2019
    Lord Sugar is being active against Labour ok Twitter. Expect a controversy over the Apprentice if this carries on. He does have 5m followers....
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    philiph said:

    148grss said:

    43:10 Liberal Democrat:Green is more generous to the Greens then I expected, even if some of them are forlorn hopes.

    Does that make the 43 the likely realistic limit to Liberal Democrat ambitions in England & Wales? I guess there are some obvious targets, such as Sheffield Hallam, that aren't on the list.

    Dulwich & West Norwood is really going to annoy my step-mother. She's become the most committed Liberal Democrat member since the Brexit referendum, denounces my Dad's decision to stick with voting for the Labour Party as supporting a "Leave Party", and believes that the children on climate strikes should concentrate on stopping Brexit as a higher priority.

    I can't wait to hear her reaction.
    I'm interested in Hitchen and Harpenden. I'm in neighbouring St Albans, which looks to go Con -> LD, I wonder if they think they can shift some activists from St Albans up to H&H and win there. It looked like a promising seat when the 4 parties were at somewhat evens in the polls; now Tories are steaming ahead and BXP are falling, I'm not too sure.
    I would think demographically Hitchin has moved in a LibDem direction over the last few years. Haven't checked the results of local elections to see.
    No idea on Harpenden

    It is an odd constituency.
    Harpenden is the kind of place where they weigh the Tory vote. It has 12 councillors, all Tory albeit there was a swing away from them last time. It was always an affluent town, but if anything demographically has shifted even further towards people working in the City, and has property prices to match. If the Tories were in trouble in Harpenden, then they would struggle to get 100 seats and there'd be yellow curtains in Downing St.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131
    Thank you. I'll read it tonight. The previous version was (I think) written by Peter Keller and still said that you could use the MOE formula to calculate the MOE for non-representative sampling. That advice is out of date and the BPC recommended using historical ones instead. Hopefully the new guidance (I'm on the tablet and so can't read PDFs) will reflect that. The use of theoretical MOEs for nonrandom non-representative polling annoys the arse out of me... :(
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    algarkirk said:

    Who do you vote for if you want a balanced budget and all the promised debt repayment?

    You compromise and vote for the party that is most closely aligned with your viewpoint.
  • Have we noted this?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/07/brexit-party-chairman-richard-tice-expected-to-stand-in-hartlepool

    As an aside, I was amused by this bit at the end:

    Jonathan Brash, a local Labour party official, said: “Hartlepool doesn’t need southern elites … being parachuted into our town to tell us what to do. He doesn’t live here, he’s barely even visited Hartlepool.

    “What does Richard Tice know about Hartlepool and challenges facing local residents? What does he know about child poverty, the devastating impact of public service cuts, what it’s like to live in communities where there are too few police officers and too few jobs?

    “He doesn’t know our town, he doesn’t know our history, he doesn’t know our people and they will not accept being used for this cheap political stunt. Hartlepool needs an MP that puts people before privilege, who puts Hartlepool first.”


    That's an official of the Hartlepool Labour Party, the one which had Peter Mandelson as its MP for 12 years.

    Perhaps that is why he feels so strongly about it....he is unlikely to have had any say about Mandelson but can speak freely about Tice.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    The analysis by Stuart Dickson relates more to the part of the Fat Laird's seat which was formerly part of Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber. I can assure you that in Ross-shire the Fat Laird is despised and most especially by locals who adored Charles Kennedy. However the younger generation are big Nat voters so as I said the Fat Laird will hold on. For the record, a large part of the Tory vote is not incomer, it is proudly native and unionist but that doesnt fit within the SNP mantra which is very much anti-English and hearing some of the anti-English remarks from SNP supporters is blood curdling. A popular one is "when we get independence, people like you will be sent back south of the border"! Not quite burning English holiday homes as happened in Wales in the 1970s but sometimes not far from it. Even I got accused of being an Englishman a few weeks ago on Facebook by a fanatical SNP supporter and I am a 22x great grandson of Robert the Bruce! (and a descendant of Edward I of England as are all descendants of the Mackenzie of Kintail family)

    Christ, a Scottish Charles, that's all we need.
    The Families have been with us for centuries past (cue lightning bolt and thunderclap)... :)
  • Speaking to a resident of Ealing Southall at work today,

    'Sharma has treated that constituency like a fiefdom, and there are a lot of BJP supporters in Southall'

    Boris Johnson Party? :lol:
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,131

    Chris Williamson has called on the Labour Party not to field a candidate against him in the general election.

    I think I genuinely don't like him.
This discussion has been closed.