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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ten Lib Dem seats to watch
The Lib Dems do not lack for stated public ambition. Jo Swinson is positioning herself as a potential Prime Minister after the election, which shows some optimism considering that the Lib Dems started the last Parliament with just 12 MPs and ended it with just 20, many of whom look by no means certainties to return to Parliament next time.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cheltenham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s
The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election.
Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
I have gone big on libdems in NE Somerset. If you crack an egg, you need to make the omelette
And it means normal service of Tory shambles dominating this election narrative will resume again come Friday if not sooner.
He is an easy target for the media and represents a strong Remain seat; so a plausible win for the Lib Dems.
At 6/1, a bet on the Lib Dems to win Somerset North East is my first foray into the GE punting battle.
That’s how elections work imo. Miliband actually did quite well taking Tory seats, it was Scottish collapse that done for him. In 17 Tory and labour scored off each other in odd places. whose actually got money on Labour gains already? But there will be some even in terrible night of losses.
If I had to make predictions for seats that could change hands unexpectedly or against the tide...
- LDs to lose Norfolk North, and I'd expect this to be their only loss (excluding defector seats).
- Lab gain Putney with a very low share in a tight three-way contest.
- Surprise LD gain in Hampstead & Kilburn from third place.
- Con gain Runrig Pete's seat, probably their only gain in Scotland.
- Shock Con gain in Warley on a big swing.
And a few surprise retentions...
- Lab to narrowly hold Warwick & Leamington
- Southport stays blue
- Lab retain Gower
- Con hold Winchester. Ideally by 2 votes.
Unexpected gains seems, counter intuitively, expected, but the swings need to be so high it's not hard to see the limits of it unless the tories are in freefall.
Vauxhall is an interesting one as even with a super leavey labour mp the LDs did not get close and yet now might. They really were not being rewarded for their pro remain stance until very recently- as critical as we might be of them theres a reason the change uk lot were not confident of the LDs at first.
NE Somerset looks a very long shot indeed, but there is surely some value in giving Rees Mogg a few sleepless nights.
JRM deserves sleepless nights - I can't imagine why anyone in CCHQ thinks he's good for the Conservative's image - unless "out of touch condescending toff" is the look they are going for.....
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/nov/07/ukraine-crisis-put-on-ice-by-trump-staff-busy-working-out-how-to-buy-greenland
After the White House cut off military aid to Ukraine, Donald Trump’s top officials scrambled to get it restored but were unable to organise a meeting with the president, in part because his staff were too busy pursuing his interest in buying Greenland, according to newly released congressional testimony....
Firstly, and most importantly, there is no love lost between the 3 Unionist parties in this seat. They gain their core support from very different groups of people:
The SCon core vote in this seat is probably the largest (perhaps 20%) and most solid of the Better Together parties, comprised almost exclusively of incomers to the area. They are adamant, vocal, determined and vociferously anti-SNP, frequently tipping over to blatant anti-Scottishness.
The SLab core vote (perhaps 10%) is comprised of primarily local people, who vote Labour for largely the same reasons as SLab voters in the Central Belt: social justice, desire for infrastructure investment (especially housing, transport and IT), international solidarity. They are solidly pro-Highland and pro-Scottish, and they look upon Tories with quiet contempt. Although on a good day they might back a pleasant, local Lib Dem, eg Kennedy. Their former MP David Stewart was a kind, well-liked sort, a typical representative of this group. Corbynism is not their thing. They loved Donald Dewar, John Smith and that type of social democrat. They are not particularly anti-SNP, but consider nationalism to be antediluvian. Younger members of these households don’t understand why mum and dad still vote Labour.
The SLD core vote is absolutely minuscule (below 10%), and it it a miracle that Russell Johnston and Charlie Kennedy ever got elected here, let alone held the area for decades. In years of knocking doors when they were the MP I almost never met a Lib/Lib Dem supporter, but have met thousands of SNP/Lab/Con supporters who voted LD tactically to keep some worse party out of power. Their famous Highland support is as tenuous as snow on a dyke in May. The local SLDs are notably left-wing, to an extent that would shock many English Lib Dems.
Anyone with half decent arithmetic can see that the 3 Better Together parties cannot win with Core Vote alone, even if they swung solidly behind just one Unionist candidate (realistically, only the Lib Dem could be that unifying candidate). So they must reach out to the vast number of local people who are largely disinterested in politics, and who are largely agnostic on the great constitutional debate of self-governance versus London-rule.
I have seen zero evidence that any of the 3 Unionist parties are attempting to talk to the huge number of locals in this centre-ground. They are all obsessed with preaching to the converted and motivating their core voters. Which just isn’t enough. Not by a long way.
Blackford, who is respected rather than admired, will hold this seat. For the simple reason that thousands of locals who hate politics, politicians, Brexit and independence-scuffles will be persuaded by the large number of SNP activists in this area that his party is on their side. Which it is.
Locals were disgusted at the antics of the SNP in 2015 and many of us who knew Charles well still blame them in large part for his untimely death. For the record I had known Charles since starting university in 1978, the year after him.
Anecdotal comment, just before the 2017 election, a very old friend who happened to be President of the LibDem association said to me it would be sad if the Tory vote prevented "them" (i.e. the Liberals) retaking the seat. After the result was announced I turned his comment around and pointed out that it was disappointing votes for the LibDems prevented it from being another Tory gain!
Personally I expect that the anti-SNP vote is so heavily split between the Tories and Liberals who traditionally swapped Ross and Cromarty (a very different seat) every decade or so. I would be incredibly surprised if the Fat Laird loses, much as though I would love to see either Tory or Liberal unseat him.
Incidentally a tip for you all, I would be astounded if cousin Jamie doesn't vastly increase his majority here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. He is a wonderful chap (well I would say that since my grandmother and his mother were great chums and distant cousins) and HUGELY popular. I cannot envisage any Tory to SNP movers and Labour has almost disappeared.
In Scotland, other than NE Fife and possibly Argyll, I am not expecting the Liberals to win any seats but they may pile up votes helping we Tories to hold on against the SNP in some of the Grampian seats and slightly dent our majorities in others. I expect Jackson Carlaw to fight the campaign almost totally on the Union v IndyRef2 which is even more polarising across Scotland than Brexit.
Success will be owned by him and the left. As will defeat.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/11/coming-brexit-farce/601558/
I imagine it must be like a different Marx Brother turning up to work there each day.
"There ain't no sanity clause...."
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1192187159324844032?s=20
p.s. Shouldn't a LibDem have written this thread rather a Labour supporter?
https://twitter.com/ExStrategist/status/1192337554609201153?s=20
I’ve seen this repeated here a few times now. I really think there has to be more polling to substantiate it. Scottish only polling has been few and far between. Though, most of the polling has the SNP either down from, or equal to, what they were polling at in the run up to the last General Election. The SNP seem to be making a bit of a habit, as of late, in underperforming polling figures.
The Nat vote share has been trending down since their peak in 2015. It’ll be interesting to see if that is the case again, given that they have 22 seats with majorities under 3,000 votes!
Backs Boris in GE.
https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1192341279373479936?s=20
Now as it happens I do think the will get below their current polling at the GE but their current polling is not "down or equal to" their GE score.
Miss Vance, bit odd for a Corbyn supporter to castigate others for supporting repressive regimes...
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2018/07/27/ultimately-corbyns-got-to-compromise-on-antisemitism-or-else-risk-splitting-the-party/
In my area all their efforts will be going into Fife NE and I do think that they have a good chance there. My guess is that this will be their only Scottish gain although they may fancy a comeback in the borders against the Tories.
In Edinburgh their efforts will be focused on trying to keep Edinburgh West which they largely won on the back of the embarrassment caused by Michelle Thomson for the SNP. That is going to be very difficult unless Swinson can give the Lib Dems a Scottish lift. She herself can take little for granted. She won the seat with tactical unionist support but a chunk of that will have been Tories who were probably leavers. The Union or Brexit, which is more important, will be a real issue in Scotland. I think given her much higher profile now she should be ok but she will be spending more time in her constituency than she would ideally want to.
In Argyll & Bute it seems to me that the Tory is in pole position as the Unionist candidate having received twice the Lib Dem vote the last time but the same fracture, will Lib Dems really back a party committed to Brexit, may undermine further progress.
In order to that the Labour vote has to collapse behind the Libdems, and although at the moment that is what the YouGov poll is showing that is unlikely to be the case on election day. Why?
Because Labour's vote in inner London is majority from the large ethnic minority population and especially large Muslim electorate. These are some of the most loyal voters, prehaps only scouseres are more loyal. Unless the Labour party are planning on invading Iraq again the libdem will not get enough of them to vote tactically for them.
Libdems could see white liberal REMAIN voters back them in these seats but that means a split REMAIN vote.
Libdems will not GAIN Vaxhall(high black population also very loyal to Labour), Westminster ,Kensington, Chealsea and Fulham(Fulham still has a lot of poor people), Hampstead and Kilburn is a bit different, and could be a Libdem GAIN The Labour vote is more sticky in inner London than elsewhere in Britain.
(This does mean however the libdem vote could rise even further in outer London.)
https://twitter.com/holland_tom/status/1192011316342509568
"Ok maybe we need to vote Tory"
^Outrage*
If his replacement is a far left fool it'll be something else for Labour moderate MPs to complain about before quietly doing nothing.
Welcome!
I do hope my post didn’t come across as a criticism. Enjoy the commentary on here and have lurked for years. So I thought I’d - finally - chime in for the run up to this election.
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
When Barr is not willing to lie for you then you are fucked.
Also:
http://twitter.com/LaylaMoran/status/1192229185172967426
Who were the Unionist Free Trade League, I hear you cry?
To which my reply is, ‘Exactly!’
Because even if the EU leaders will act to protect Ireland, or other majorly affected countries, ultimately passing trade treaties is not in their gift, but requires unanimous agreement from every EU country. And not unanimity among leaders but in accordance with each country’s internal treaty approval processes.
Which idiot says this can happen in 6 months?
Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.
Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
"Labour MP defends party after Ian Austin jibe"
Jibe - ??
Labour have had a good few days. Not today.
What matters is, not misleading the site on betting sensitive matters, like you did for weeks in 2015.
Tom Watson resigning will leave moderates without a prominent voice in Parliament.
And the Bugle podcast has Mark Steel on where he described his nightmare situation of momentum activists going down a street canvassing and converting the street to vote Tory.
These are not right wing voices and all this is entirely predictable. Last night I looked at the MPs who aligned to Owen Smith - lots of well known respected centre left types who I could vote for if they still had influence.
Have a good morning.
Pidcock next leader is still 10 on BF
1. A moderate such as perhaps Jess Phillips or Caroline Flint.
2. A sane radical, such as perhaps Clive Lewis, who might have a bit more rigour when it comes to policy, and a determination to embody the rhetoric by actually defending Jews from antisemitism.
Wokingham has had a massive influx of new residents with vast swathes of fields being obliterated by new builds (one of the reasons I moved out of the area 7 years ago). My mother tell me that these people are likely to be more LibDem leaning.
I am not surprised by the poll and I think at least my Mother is tempted to vote LD. If she and others like her do then Redwood could well lose. I'm not a Redwood fan despite being a Leaver but I pointed out the dangers of voting LD and letting Corbyn in through the back door. Both my parents believe Corbyn would be an absolute disaster for the country.
Bottom line is that I would not be surprised if the LDs win in Wokingham but will people like my Mother at the last minute think the risk of voting LD is worth it in the privacy of the polling booth?
Labour rose exactly in step with the SNP fall.
Assume the SNP vote formed the largest component of the lost turnout from 2015 plus drift of its left wing to Corbyn Labour and you explain the drop.
It was one of the few non-metropolitan constituencies to vote Remain and the sitting MP is a jerk.
It was also the general feeling in the 2017 election that momentum would be a turn off, and yet after the fact it seems many seats were won where they campaigned without official party support. So I don't see momentum as this terrible force on the door step for Labour...
And now Ian Austin adds some petrol. And who can blame him.