Guardian saying The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election. Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.
Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.
Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
Do we definitely know if Cooper is standing again?
Her Twitter handle isn't clear:
Yvette Cooper @YvetteCooperMP Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Labour (Now Parliament has dissolved there are no MPs)
Others describe themselves as "[Party] Candidate for [Constituency]:
Hilary Benn @hilarybennmp Labour Candidate for Leeds Central in the 2019 General Election. Parliament is now dissolved so there are no MPs until after the election.
I hadn't realised that John Nicolson had decamped to Ochil and South Perthshire having lost East Dunbartonshire to the girl guide in 2017. Many will not realise he was Charles Kennedy's debating partner when they won the World Debating Championship in the early 1980s. John was a really nice guy but so far up his own arse that it was no surprise he went to work for the BBC. I am not surprised to learn he as a few quid. People from the Western Isles tend to be very good with their own money.
"Why don't you just f""k off and join the Tories" "Ok maybe we need to vote Tory" ^Outrage*
The History of the Tiggers - 2019 to 2019 - will be a remarkable WTF??? footnote to the politics of, er, 2019.
He wasn’t in that group . But overall the Tiggers never stood a chance , especially once the Lib Dems stole a march in the council elections , and then it all went downhill in the Euros where Tig was obliterated.
The Lib Dems rose in the council elections precisely because The Independent Group had made such a horlicks of launching a new political party. The voters who at first expressed a willingness to support a new centrist party were forced to forgive them for the Coalition because TIG had proved that a new centrist party wasn't going to be wished out of thin air with a bit of handwaving and cringe-inducing motivational catchphrases.
I met a voter other day who said "We really need a new centre party..."
"Haven't you had enough choice of those this year?"
I think that the overwhelming message from Alastair's excellent piece is that between 2015 and 2017 the Lib Dems collapsed as a major electoral force and in many areas of previous strength it is a very long way back with truly massive swings required, often from 3rd. They might be better placed the next time if they double their vote this time but they look certain to disappoint on election night. My guess would be 20-30 seats, very probably at the low end of that.
The cumulative Liberal Democrat to Conservative swing in the 2015 and 2017 general elections is about 11%. By way of comparison the 1997 Conservative to Labour swing was about 10%.
Alistair Meeks cites a swing in the opinion polling of ~6% since the last general election. There's a big mountain to climb.
A good list from Alastair representing an interesting mix. I am only going to comment on the Fat Laird's seat, arguably the most scenic in the UK, taking in as it does much of the rugged West coast of Ross-shire and Skye.
Locals were disgusted at the antics of the SNP in 2015 and many of us who knew Charles well still blame them in large part for his untimely death. For the record I had known Charles since starting university in 1978, the year after him.
Anecdotal comment, just before the 2017 election, a very old friend who happened to be President of the LibDem association said to me it would be sad if the Tory vote prevented "them" (i.e. the Liberals) retaking the seat. After the result was announced I turned his comment around and pointed out that it was disappointing votes for the LibDems prevented it from being another Tory gain!
Personally I expect that the anti-SNP vote is so heavily split between the Tories and Liberals who traditionally swapped Ross and Cromarty (a very different seat) every decade or so. I would be incredibly surprised if the Fat Laird loses, much as though I would love to see either Tory or Liberal unseat him.
Incidentally a tip for you all, I would be astounded if cousin Jamie doesn't vastly increase his majority here in Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross. He is a wonderful chap (well I would say that since my grandmother and his mother were great chums and distant cousins) and HUGELY popular. I cannot envisage any Tory to SNP movers and Labour has almost disappeared.
In Scotland, other than NE Fife and possibly Argyll, I am not expecting the Liberals to win any seats but they may pile up votes helping we Tories to hold on against the SNP in some of the Grampian seats and slightly dent our majorities in others. I expect Jackson Carlaw to fight the campaign almost totally on the Union v IndyRef2 which is even more polarising across Scotland than Brexit.
Interesting piece, as is Stuart's, but could posters refrain from using colloquial descriptions of candidates that most of us won't recognise? I've no idea who "the fat Laird" and "Charles" and "cousin Jamie" are, making this post difficult to follow. I'd include in-jokes too like OGH and Mike's supposed painted nails.
Then you should not refer to just stuart or Mike but use their full handles. Practice what you preach.
I think Rees-Mogg could be prove to be the, "Were you up for Portillo" figure of the 2019 General Election.
He is an easy target for the media and represents a strong Remain seat; so a plausible win for the Lib Dems.
At 6/1, a bet on the Lib Dems to win Somerset North East is my first foray into the GE punting battle.
OK at the price I think, StJ, but if you want an intriguing LD longshot try The Cotswolds. It hasn't been priced up yet but my guess is that as target 69 it will be double figures. Why would it succumb to the Peril?
It was one of the few non-metropolitan constituencies to vote Remain and the sitting MP is a jerk.
I've never understood why this is so rarely mentioned. The Cotswolds constituency is roughly co-terminous with Cotswold District Council, which went convincingly LibDem in May, and the LD/Grn/Chuk combo beat the Tories/Brexit one in the Euros.
Precisely the kind of constituency where Remainers will vote tactically whether the parties have a pact or not. And the antics of Clifton-Brown will probably push a few more Lab supporters to hold their noses and vote for Webster.
On the Wokingham poll. I was born and brought up there and my parents still live there on a rather leafy cul-de-sac. My father voted Leave and my mother Remain. Despite being almost lifelong Tory voters they both voted LibDem in the last locals. John Redwood is not popular even putting his views on Brexit to one side.
Wokingham has had a massive influx of new residents with vast swathes of fields being obliterated by new builds (one of the reasons I moved out of the area 7 years ago). My mother tell me that these people are likely to be more LibDem leaning.
I am not surprised by the poll and I think at least my Mother is tempted to vote LD. If she and others like her do then Redwood could well lose. I'm not a Redwood fan despite being a Leaver but I pointed out the dangers of voting LD and letting Corbyn in through the back door. Both my parents believe Corbyn would be an absolute disaster for the country.
Bottom line is that I would not be surprised if the LDs win in Wokingham but will people like my Mother at the last minute think the risk of voting LD is worth it in the privacy of the polling booth?
Guardian saying The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election. Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.
Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.
Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
They need to look beyond the Cooper/Miliband generation. There are two broad options.
1. A moderate such as perhaps Jess Phillips or Caroline Flint.
2. A sane radical, such as perhaps Clive Lewis, who might have a bit more rigour when it comes to policy, and a determination to embody the rhetoric by actually defending Jews from antisemitism.
I'm not in favour of centrists regaining control, but I have to say that the Corbyn revolution has been remarkably poor at bringing on the next generation - despite all the sound and fury it remains basically Corbyn+McDonnell+Abbott. I think the next leader is likely to be someone with a less clearly-defined political position - e.g. Phillips or Lewis.
Guardian saying The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election. Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.
Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.
Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
Do we definitely know if Cooper is standing again?
Her Twitter handle isn't clear:
Yvette Cooper @YvetteCooperMP Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Labour (Now Parliament has dissolved there are no MPs)
Others describe themselves as "[Party] Candidate for [Constituency]:
Hilary Benn @hilarybennmp Labour Candidate for Leeds Central in the 2019 General Election. Parliament is now dissolved so there are no MPs until after the election.
I would have thought the Balls family could make a better life for themselves now away from politics. Won't especially surprise me if she steps down.
On the Wokingham poll. I was born and brought up there and my parents still live there on a rather leafy cul-de-sac. My father voted Leave and my mother Remain. Despite being almost lifelong Tory voters they both voted LibDem in the last locals. John Redwood is not popular even putting his views on Brexit to one side.
Wokingham has had a massive influx of new residents with vast swathes of fields being obliterated by new builds (one of the reasons I moved out of the area 7 years ago). My mother tell me that these people are likely to be more LibDem leaning.
I am not surprised by the poll and I think at least my Mother is tempted to vote LD. If she and others like her do then Redwood could well lose. I'm not a Redwood fan despite being a Leaver but I pointed out the dangers of voting LD and letting Corbyn in through the back door. Both my parents believe Corbyn would be an absolute disaster for the country.
Bottom line is that I would not be surprised if the LDs win in Wokingham but will people like my Mother at the last minute think the risk of voting LD is worth it in the privacy of the polling booth?
The LDs candidate is ex Tory MP Philip Lee
Going to love seeing all those LibDem activists pounding the pavement for HIM!
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
That’s an excellent point re detoxify the Lib Dems in terms of centre left voters . I’ll be really interested in what sort of literature goes out . It will be great to hear from members in here who live in those seats when that starts coming through .
And its detoxifying the greens from far left to centre left . I've voted ld in 3 GEs and likely will again as I cannot back the tories like in 2017, but the cuddling up the greens as a modern trend is worrisome. You can be very green without being or wanting to go Green. Thats part of their problem . Their manifesto in 2017 (or possibly 2015) was the only one with tables of financial data in it though, which was nice.
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
Another huge political day yesterday - elections sometimes do this but not always.
I doubt Ian Austin's call will resonate the same way Enoch's did in the opposite direction and even the Watson resignation seems to be getting lost in the new day.
Watson's a shrewd political operator and perhaps realised the impact of leaving at the cusp of an election campaign would be far different to leaving in normal times - it's also interesting he's not left with a valedictory call to arms which might have initiated a more definitive schism.
IF Corbyn stands down after a heavy defeat next month we'll be facing both leader and deputy leadership elections for Labour in the new year and as I've always said, defeat brings opportunities.
That’s how elections work imo. Miliband actually did quite well taking Tory seats, it was Scottish collapse that done for him. In 17 Tory and labour scored off each other in odd places. whose actually got money on Labour gains already? But there will be some even in terrible night of losses.
If I had to make predictions for seats that could change hands unexpectedly or against the tide...
- LDs to lose Norfolk North, and I'd expect this to be their only loss (excluding defector seats).
- Lab gain Putney with a very low share in a tight three-way contest.
- Surprise LD gain in Hampstead & Kilburn from third place.
- Con gain Runrig Pete's seat, probably their only gain in Scotland.
- Shock Con gain in Warley on a big swing.
And a few surprise retentions...
- Lab to narrowly hold Warwick & Leamington
- Southport stays blue
- Lab retain Gower
- Con hold Winchester. Ideally by 2 votes.
Tories ahead in Putney and Warwick and Leamington and Gower with Best for Britain, LDs ahead in Winchester and Hampstead though
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
For the avoidance the doubt, when I said at the beginning of the thread I didnt expect the Liberals to win any other seats in Scotland other than possibly NE Fife and Argyll I meant GAIN. Reluctantly I suspect the girl guide will hold East Dunbartonshire and the wifie from Aberdeenshire will hold Edinburgh West. If they lost Orkney and Shetland there wouldnt be another Liberal MP anywhere in the UK. It is the ultimate in "rotten burghs" even though the incumbent did his best to lose a few years ago to my late friend and colleague on AHCS, Danus Skene of Skene, Chief of Clan Skene, who was the SNP candidate.
As a Lib Dem I never bet on them as my emotional attachment can overcome my logical assumptions. However having worked for a previous Lib Dem MP for Cheltenham, I would be surprised and gutted if we don't win this time. I would think the Lib Dems won't do as well as hoped in many leave areas in the South West, but better in remain seats in and around London. I also expect to win Hallam, as O'Mara must surely have tarnished the Labour tag as he was after all originally a Labour MP. I am hoping for forty plus seats, but expecting 30+. Could do with more coverage on tv - the policy of inbvesting in mental health services was hardly mentioned tonight.
Re mental health - poor tactics to announce policy on day of another party launch. Labour played it well by contrast
The mental health policy is great. Really impressed. They need to repeat it again when there is more air space.
Quite a mountain to climb though. In 2019 there were only 14 Child and Adolescent Psychiatry trainees recruited nationally. None were started in the East Midlands, NE England, Scotland or Wales.
Adult Psychiatry was a little better with 443 Trainees started, 8% posts unfillable, but 129 of the Trainees were in London. The regions are poorly served once more.
One of the biggest challenges for Psychiatry is the difficulty in getting graduates to apply. It has one of the lowest competition ratios of all specialities. The reasons are complex, but seemingly intractable. Not least is the absence of funding for inpatient units. Having suicidal patients but no possibility of admission is extremely common and extremely stressful for family and professional alike.
Very enjoyable stuff from Rebecca Long Bailey on Today this morning, amounting to this:
Tories have crashed everything and wrecked the country. Labour will spend hundreds of billions on stuff. This is easy to fund because interest rates are so low so we can borrow it all. Other economically crashed countries like Italy have higher interest rates so they can't do this.
I don't think anyone on Radio 4 seriously questioned this line of argument.
RLB and Laura Pidcock could have great future doing comedy on the 6.30 pm Radio 4 slot once they are done with running the country.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
One of the difficulties for the Greens is that at their campaign launch they, understandably, talked about the primary importance of dealing with the climate emergency.
Standing aside from a whole bunch of seats to "Unite to Remain" is somewhat contradictory to that, as it suggests that Brexit is more important.
Guardian saying The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election. Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.
Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.
Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
Do we definitely know if Cooper is standing again?
Her Twitter handle isn't clear:
Yvette Cooper @YvetteCooperMP Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Labour (Now Parliament has dissolved there are no MPs)
Others describe themselves as "[Party] Candidate for [Constituency]:
Hilary Benn @hilarybennmp Labour Candidate for Leeds Central in the 2019 General Election. Parliament is now dissolved so there are no MPs until after the election.
I would have thought the Balls family could make a better life for themselves now away from politics. Won't especially surprise me if she steps down.
Her chances of promotion in a Corbyn government would be pretty slim.....
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
Anyone triggered by the idea of perhaps a couple more Green MPs in Parliament isn't likely to be considering a vote for the Lib Dems in any event.
And if you dislike such electoral pacts, then vote for PR to replace FPTP.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
I think that while active as a distinct party, the Greens biggest effect will be on Labour and the LDs, where the Green LDs are a strong faction, nearly a party within a party.
All three should turn this into the Environmental election. Getting the young out to vote is key, and environmentalism is strong with older voters too, and a way to turn them away from the blue meanies.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
One of the difficulties for the Greens is that at their campaign launch they, understandably, talked about the primary importance of dealing with the climate emergency.
Standing aside from a whole bunch of seats to "Unite to Remain" is somewhat contradictory to that, as it suggests that Brexit is more important.
That is one interpretation, another would be that under FPTP the climate emergency demands long term party purity principles are set aside to get more Green MPs into parliament now.
Guardian saying The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election. Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
What's the saying... approbation, elevation, castration?
At least it’s recognition from him of time to move on from banging his head against a wall, leaving on pretty descent terms with Corbyn come the end because didn’t just spring it on him, but allowed leaders office to choose the moment of announcement. Pulls the rug from under some of the more hyperbolic journalism already written in tomorrow’s papers 😆 And it means normal service of Tory shambles dominating this election narrative will resume again come Friday if not sooner.
Watson’s role in the Carl Beech affair should disqualify him from any sort of elevation to the Lords, frankly.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
One of the difficulties for the Greens is that at their campaign launch they, understandably, talked about the primary importance of dealing with the climate emergency.
Standing aside from a whole bunch of seats to "Unite to Remain" is somewhat contradictory to that, as it suggests that Brexit is more important.
It suggests that Brexit is likely to be both a massive distraction from dealing with climate change, and (quite possibly) a direct hindrance. And it's not as though the Lib Dems disagree with them on the issue.
Been away for a few days (damn badly timed new job), but reading thread headers and skimming comments there’s some brilliant observations from the regulars and PBers on the ground in a bunch of constituencies.
I still think that this election could produce almost any result short of a Corbyn majority, there’s definitely going to be an almighty churn in many seats that have been considered safe for decades. Comments from those on the ground are invaluable and hopefully will contribute to betting profits come election night.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
From an outsider pro green perspective it is surely the left wing Green activists who are holding back the Green party as a political movement in the UK? They should be the natural protest party for half the country as well as a first choice for a tenth but the aggressive left activists put a lot of people off.
For the avoidance the doubt, when I said at the beginning of the thread I didnt expect the Liberals to win any other seats in Scotland other than possibly NE Fife and Argyll I meant GAIN. Reluctantly I suspect the girl guide will hold East Dunbartonshire and the wifie from Aberdeenshire will hold Edinburgh West. If they lost Orkney and Shetland there wouldnt be another Liberal MP anywhere in the UK. It is the ultimate in "rotten burghs" even though the incumbent did his best to lose a few years ago to my late friend and colleague on AHCS, Danus Skene of Skene, Chief of Clan Skene, who was the SNP candidate.
Your post prompted me to read the brief wiki page on Danus Skene, whom I had not heard of previously. He seems to have had quite a political journey: Eton, Labour, Liberals, SNP.
Clearly a man with an open mind and committed to public services, both of which seem admirable qualities.
As a Lib Dem I never bet on them as my emotional attachment can overcome my logical assumptions. However having worked for a previous Lib Dem MP for Cheltenham, I would be surprised and gutted if we don't win this time. I would think the Lib Dems won't do as well as hoped in many leave areas in the South West, but better in remain seats in and around London. I also expect to win Hallam, as O'Mara must surely have tarnished the Labour tag as he was after all originally a Labour MP. I am hoping for forty plus seats, but expecting 30+. Could do with more coverage on tv - the policy of inbvesting in mental health services was hardly mentioned tonight.
Re mental health - poor tactics to announce policy on day of another party launch. Labour played it well by contrast
The mental health policy is great. Really impressed. They need to repeat it again when there is more air space.
Quite a mountain to climb though. In 2019 there were only 14 Child and Adolescent Psychiatry trainees recruited nationally. None were started in the East Midlands, NE England, Scotland or Wales.
Adult Psychiatry was a little better with 443 Trainees started, 8% posts unfillable, but 129 of the Trainees were in London. The regions are poorly served once more.
One of the biggest challenges for Psychiatry is the difficulty in getting graduates to apply. It has one of the lowest competition ratios of all specialities. The reasons are complex, but seemingly intractable. Not least is the absence of funding for inpatient units. Having suicidal patients but no possibility of admission is extremely common and extremely stressful for family and professional alike.
Is there a case for paying graduates (more?) to train in shortage areas? In teaching there is now a £26,000 bursary for Physics teachers. I missed out on that by a couple of decades...
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
Anyone triggered by the idea of perhaps a couple more Green MPs in Parliament isn't likely to be considering a vote for the Lib Dems in any event.
1 right here. The Greens are a far different prospect to the LDs, it's easy to consider the latter but not the former. If ukip hadn't gone totally nuts I'd call the greens their equivalent.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
From an outsider pro green perspective it is surely the left wing Green activists who are holding back the Green party as a political movement in the UK? They should be the natural protest party for half the country as well as a first choice for a tenth but the aggressive left activists put a lot of people off.
Greens have always been a bit divided between fundamentalists and pragmatists. It is the pragmatist inclined to work with other parties.
I think Rees-Mogg could be prove to be the, "Were you up for Portillo" figure of the 2019 General Election.
He is an easy target for the media and represents a strong Remain seat; so a plausible win for the Lib Dems.
At 6/1, a bet on the Lib Dems to win Somerset North East is my first foray into the GE punting battle.
OK at the price I think, StJ, but if you want an intriguing LD longshot try The Cotswolds. It hasn't been priced up yet but my guess is that as target 69 it will be double figures. Why would it succumb to the Peril?
It was one of the few non-metropolitan constituencies to vote Remain and the sitting MP is a jerk.
I've never understood why this is so rarely mentioned. The Cotswolds constituency is roughly co-terminous with Cotswold District Council, which went convincingly LibDem in May, and the LD/Grn/Chuk combo beat the Tories/Brexit one in the Euros.
Precisely the kind of constituency where Remainers will vote tactically whether the parties have a pact or not. And the antics of Clifton-Brown will probably push a few more Lab supporters to hold their noses and vote for Webster.
I think Rees-Mogg could be prove to be the, "Were you up for Portillo" figure of the 2019 General Election.
He is an easy target for the media and represents a strong Remain seat; so a plausible win for the Lib Dems.
At 6/1, a bet on the Lib Dems to win Somerset North East is my first foray into the GE punting battle.
OK at the price I think, StJ, but if you want an intriguing LD longshot try The Cotswolds. It hasn't been priced up yet but my guess is that as target 69 it will be double figures. Why would it succumb to the Peril?
It was one of the few non-metropolitan constituencies to vote Remain and the sitting MP is a jerk.
I've never understood why this is so rarely mentioned. The Cotswolds constituency is roughly co-terminous with Cotswold District Council, which went convincingly LibDem in May, and the LD/Grn/Chuk combo beat the Tories/Brexit one in the Euros.
Precisely the kind of constituency where Remainers will vote tactically whether the parties have a pact or not. And the antics of Clifton-Brown will probably push a few more Lab supporters to hold their noses and vote for Webster.
I think there is a risk in tying the council election where increase in council tax is limited with the risk of a Corbyn government. I know some of this constituency and would assume the average house price is high, and also the rate of home ownership.
Very enjoyable stuff from Rebecca Long Bailey on Today this morning, amounting to this:
Tories have crashed everything and wrecked the country. Labour will spend hundreds of billions on stuff. This is easy to fund because interest rates are so low so we can borrow it all. Other economically crashed countries like Italy have higher interest rates so they can't do this.
I don't think anyone on Radio 4 seriously questioned this line of argument.
RLB and Laura Pidcock could have great future doing comedy on the 6.30 pm Radio 4 slot once they are done with running the country.
So I’m guessing that RLB discussed in detail the functionality and volatility of the bond market on which these funds will be raised?
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
From an outsider pro green perspective it is surely the left wing Green activists who are holding back the Green party as a political movement in the UK? They should be the natural protest party for half the country as well as a first choice for a tenth but the aggressive left activists put a lot of people off.
Exactly. Being green alone is not their only identity. And it's not centre anything as our mainstream parties are.
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
One of the difficulties for the Greens is that at their campaign launch they, understandably, talked about the primary importance of dealing with the climate emergency.
Standing aside from a whole bunch of seats to "Unite to Remain" is somewhat contradictory to that, as it suggests that Brexit is more important.
Indeed. As an ex-Labour member who can't stand Corbyn and also a Leaver I am effectively politically homeless. I can't bring myself to vote Con or BXP. A vote for the LDs is a vote for the EU. A token vote for the Greens seemed as good as any, on the grounds that it would put a marker down to governments to take climate change more seriously. But if this globalism-corporatist-EU worshipping Green Party is telling me that their primary concern is Brexit not the environment, then I'll have to think again.
PS. If the Yorkshire Party stand in the Black Country, I'll vote for them.
If there is a big pro Tory swing in Sunderland though that should be encouraged as 2/3 of constituencies were Leave and only 1/3 Remain
On a complete tangent though of relevance, I noted in the piece regarding the Central Line service reductions the changes were all at the eastern end of the line. There seemed no reduction in the services at White City or Ealing Broadway - the latter is very well appointed with the District line and plenty of rail services.
If I were a politically motivated cynic, I'd wonder if there was a political message behind the TfL plan in terms of where it was going to have an impact.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
I think that while active as a distinct party, the Greens biggest effect will be on Labour and the LDs, where the Green LDs are a strong faction, nearly a party within a party.
All three should turn this into the Environmental election. Getting the young out to vote is key, and environmentalism is strong with older voters too, and a way to turn them away from the blue meanies.
They will fail (to turn it into the Environmental election).
It is a Brexit election. With spending by everyone who can open a chequebook. Oh and don't forget Greta.
As a Lib Dem I never bet on them as my emotional attachment can overcome my logical assumptions. However having worked for a previous Lib Dem MP for Cheltenham, I would be surprised and gutted if we don't win this time. I would think the Lib Dems won't do as well as hoped in many leave areas in the South West, but better in remain seats in and around London. I also expect to win Hallam, as O'Mara must surely have tarnished the Labour tag as he was after all originally a Labour MP. I am hoping for forty plus seats, but expecting 30+. Could do with more coverage on tv - the policy of inbvesting in mental health services was hardly mentioned tonight.
Re mental health - poor tactics to announce policy on day of another party launch. Labour played it well by contrast
The mental health policy is great. Really impressed. They need to repeat it again when there is more air space.
Quite a mountain to climb though. In 2019 there were only 14 Child and Adolescent Psychiatry trainees recruited nationally. None were started in the East Midlands, NE England, Scotland or Wales.
Adult Psychiatry was a little better with 443 Trainees started, 8% posts unfillable, but 129 of the Trainees were in London. The regions are poorly served once more.
One of the biggest challenges for Psychiatry is the difficulty in getting graduates to apply. It has one of the lowest competition ratios of all specialities. The reasons are complex, but seemingly intractable. Not least is the absence of funding for inpatient units. Having suicidal patients but no possibility of admission is extremely common and extremely stressful for family and professional alike.
Is there a case for paying graduates (more?) to train in shortage areas? In teaching there is now a £26,000 bursary for Physics teachers. I missed out on that by a couple of decades...
I don't think it fundamentally a money issue. Psychiatry applicants are more or less guaranteed swift progression to a Consultant salary in the region of their choice. It is getting graduates interested in the first place that is difficult.
International recruitment is also problematic. A broken bone is the same in Mumbai and Melton Mowbray, but a psychosis manifests rather differently.
Guardian saying The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election. Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.
Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.
Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
Do we definitely know if Cooper is standing again?
Her Twitter handle isn't clear:
Yvette Cooper @YvetteCooperMP Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Labour (Now Parliament has dissolved there are no MPs)
Others describe themselves as "[Party] Candidate for [Constituency]:
Hilary Benn @hilarybennmp Labour Candidate for Leeds Central in the 2019 General Election. Parliament is now dissolved so there are no MPs until after the election.
I would have thought the Balls family could make a better life for themselves now away from politics. Won't especially surprise me if she steps down.
Her chances of promotion in a Corbyn government would be pretty slim.....
Her chances of replacing him as leader even slimmer....
Very enjoyable stuff from Rebecca Long Bailey on Today this morning, amounting to this:
Tories have crashed everything and wrecked the country. Labour will spend hundreds of billions on stuff. This is easy to fund because interest rates are so low so we can borrow it all. Other economically crashed countries like Italy have higher interest rates so they can't do this.
I don't think anyone on Radio 4 seriously questioned this line of argument.
RLB and Laura Pidcock could have great future doing comedy on the 6.30 pm Radio 4 slot once they are done with running the country.
So I’m guessing that RLB discussed in detail the functionality and volatility of the bond market on which these funds will be raised?
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
The Greens have regularly conducted polling that shows that people like their policies, but voters don't believe that they can win, and don't know the leading figures in the party (so don't know if they can trust them personally).
On the Wokingham poll. I was born and brought up there and my parents still live there on a rather leafy cul-de-sac. My father voted Leave and my mother Remain. Despite being almost lifelong Tory voters they both voted LibDem in the last locals. John Redwood is not popular even putting his views on Brexit to one side.
Wokingham has had a massive influx of new residents with vast swathes of fields being obliterated by new builds (one of the reasons I moved out of the area 7 years ago). My mother tell me that these people are likely to be more LibDem leaning.
I am not surprised by the poll and I think at least my Mother is tempted to vote LD. If she and others like her do then Redwood could well lose. I'm not a Redwood fan despite being a Leaver but I pointed out the dangers of voting LD and letting Corbyn in through the back door. Both my parents believe Corbyn would be an absolute disaster for the country.
Bottom line is that I would not be surprised if the LDs win in Wokingham but will people like my Mother at the last minute think the risk of voting LD is worth it in the privacy of the polling booth?
The LDs candidate is ex Tory MP Philip Lee
Going to love seeing all those LibDem activists pounding the pavement for HIM!
I know Wokingham from growing up close by and living there a few years ago (sh!t it’s more like a decade and a half now). Most people who lived there traditionally worked in the tech sector in Reading or Bracknell, with a minority of commuters to London (there’s a direct train link).
Do we think that the new residents there are more likely to be London commuters, rather than more local workers?
The poll seems generous to the LDs, but as @AlistairM says above, the closeness of it might be enough to persuade people to go back to backing Redwood. The residents of Wokingham definitely won’t want to see Corbyn form a government, irrespective of their views on Brexit.
As a Lib Dem I never bet on them as my emotional attachment can overcome my logical assumptions. However having worked for a previous Lib Dem MP for Cheltenham, I would be surprised and gutted if we don't win this time. I would think the Lib Dems won't do as well as hoped in many leave areas in the South West, but better in remain seats in and around London. I also expect to win Hallam, as O'Mara must surely have tarnished the Labour tag as he was after all originally a Labour MP. I am hoping for forty plus seats, but expecting 30+. Could do with more coverage on tv - the policy of inbvesting in mental health services was hardly mentioned tonight.
Re mental health - poor tactics to announce policy on day of another party launch. Labour played it well by contrast
The mental health policy is great. Really impressed. They need to repeat it again when there is more air space.
Quite a mountain to climb though. In 2019 there were only 14 Child and Adolescent Psychiatry trainees recruited nationally. None were started in the East Midlands, NE England, Scotland or Wales.
Adult Psychiatry was a little better with 443 Trainees started, 8% posts unfillable, but 129 of the Trainees were in London. The regions are poorly served once more.
One of the biggest challenges for Psychiatry is the difficulty in getting graduates to apply. It has one of the lowest competition ratios of all specialities. The reasons are complex, but seemingly intractable. Not least is the absence of funding for inpatient units. Having suicidal patients but no possibility of admission is extremely common and extremely stressful for family and professional alike.
Is there a case for paying graduates (more?) to train in shortage areas? In teaching there is now a £26,000 bursary for Physics teachers. I missed out on that by a couple of decades...
I don't think it fundamentally a money issue. Psychiatry applicants are more or less guaranteed swift progression to a Consultant salary in the region of their choice. It is getting graduates interested in the first place that is difficult.
International recruitment is also problematic. A broken bone is the same in Mumbai and Melton Mowbray, but a psychosis manifests rather differently.
I imagine the work is tremendously emotionally draining, which maybe puts people off.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating.
Unite to Remain is a great slogan. But another side-effect is to toxify the Greens to some of their own left-wing activists - I know some of them who are extremely hostile to the LibDems (though they feel Corbyn's a bit wimpish too) and very unhappy that they're not allowed to stand in their seats. How much that matters is debatable - they may get lots of new activists.
From an outsider pro green perspective it is surely the left wing Green activists who are holding back the Green party as a political movement in the UK? They should be the natural protest party for half the country as well as a first choice for a tenth but the aggressive left activists put a lot of people off.
Greens have always been a bit divided between fundamentalists and pragmatists. It is the pragmatist inclined to work with other parties.
I have never really understood fundamentalists of any persuasion but it seems all our parties prefer that route in the age of social media and 24 hour news. Pragmatism has a long and tricky fight back.
I think Rees-Mogg could be prove to be the, "Were you up for Portillo" figure of the 2019 General Election.
He is an easy target for the media and represents a strong Remain seat; so a plausible win for the Lib Dems.
At 6/1, a bet on the Lib Dems to win Somerset North East is my first foray into the GE punting battle.
OK at the price I think, StJ, but if you want an intriguing LD longshot try The Cotswolds. It hasn't been priced up yet but my guess is that as target 69 it will be double figures. Why would it succumb to the Peril?
It was one of the few non-metropolitan constituencies to vote Remain and the sitting MP is a jerk.
I've never understood why this is so rarely mentioned. The Cotswolds constituency is roughly co-terminous with Cotswold District Council, which went convincingly LibDem in May, and the LD/Grn/Chuk combo beat the Tories/Brexit one in the Euros.
Precisely the kind of constituency where Remainers will vote tactically whether the parties have a pact or not. And the antics of Clifton-Brown will probably push a few more Lab supporters to hold their noses and vote for Webster.
I've never understood why this is so rarely mentioned. The Cotswolds constituency is roughly co-terminous with Cotswold District Council, which went convincingly LibDem in May, and the LD/Grn/Chuk combo beat the Tories/Brexit one in the Euros.
Precisely the kind of constituency where Remainers will vote tactically whether the parties have a pact or not. And the antics of Clifton-Brown will probably push a few more Lab supporters to hold their noses and vote for Webster.
I think there is a risk in tying the council election where increase in council tax is limited with the risk of a Corbyn government. I know some of this constituency and would assume the average house price is high, and also the rate of home ownership.
The issue with projecting from Council results is that you'd end up with Henley on Thames being a marginal.
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
What do we think the chances are that somebody is going to leak that Russian interference report during the campaign?
I'm sure Dominic Grieve has seen a copy. But I'm equally sure he would never do such a thing....
I doubt he would (unless it was really explosive) but a disgruntled civil servant might.
TIming is important though... now is way too soon. Think how much more impact the Trump tapes would have had if they'd come out the weekend before the 2016 election.
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
Very enjoyable stuff from Rebecca Long Bailey on Today this morning, amounting to this:
Tories have crashed everything and wrecked the country. Labour will spend hundreds of billions on stuff. This is easy to fund because interest rates are so low so we can borrow it all. Other economically crashed countries like Italy have higher interest rates so they can't do this.
I don't think anyone on Radio 4 seriously questioned this line of argument.
RLB and Laura Pidcock could have great future doing comedy on the 6.30 pm Radio 4 slot once they are done with running the country.
So I’m guessing that RLB discussed in detail the functionality and volatility of the bond market on which these funds will be raised?
Do only the Tories have a magic money tree?
No the LDs have the magic money tree plus a £50bn remain dividend.
Another routine day in the Black Country: 1. Labour's Deputy Leader and standard bearer against Corbyn quits as MP for West Brom East. 2. Dudley North MP elected as Labour MP quits and calls on people to vote Tory.
I don't know why you or anyone else is taking this heap of spreadsheet ordure seriously? Apparently in East Ham Stephen Timms is going to see his vote share drop to 53% with BXP polling 11%?
All they've done is take the swing numbers from the London poll and apply them universally to the 2017 vote shares which isn't difficult to do for someone with basic Excel skills.
How anyone can take them seriously or be using them as a basis for betting defies any kind of logic. At least when I lose money at the races, I've got the Racing Post and Timeform to blame rather than the trusty pin.
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
I don't disagree with that but...
1. There is zero chance of a majority Green adminstration. 2. Their objective is to move the Overton window, which they have been doing successfully if slowly for years.
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
What do we think the chances are that somebody is going to leak that Russian interference report during the campaign?
More likely than not? 60%-80%?
I'd have thought so. Which begs the question: why doesn't the government release it now and get it out of the way so that it will be forgotten by 12th Dec?
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
Depends what you mean by full on green policies. As proposed by the lefty side of the Green party then yes. Other green approaches are available, the centre piece of which should be making the UK economy focus on exporting green technology and processes around the world, and creating the education, regulatory, investment, research and tax policies to allow that to flourish. (All parties pay lip service to the above, but are not really doing much)
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
You may be right Ben - I concede I am not most voters! There may be a cohort who are tempted LD on fiscal responsibility grounds (I don't know whether the LDs are in favour of fiscal responsibility these days, but no one else seems to be) but who are put off by the association with the Greens (particularly if they have no LD to stand for as their candidate has stood aside). But I don't know how big a cohort that is. Maybe there aren't any voters left who care about that sort of thing.
Another routine day in the Black Country: 1. Labour's Deputy Leader and standard bearer against Corbyn quits as MP for West Brom East. 2. Dudley North MP elected as Labour MP quits and calls on people to vote Tory.
What do you think the Black Country voters will make of Austin’s pronouncements? The sage advice of a principled man who’s seen the Boris light, or the ravings of a bitter has-been?
As a Lib Dem I never bet on them as my emotional attachment can overcome my logical assumptions. However having worked for a previous Lib Dem MP for Cheltenham, I would be surprised and gutted if we don't win this time. I would think the Lib Dems won't do as well as hoped in many leave areas in the South West, but better in remain seats in and around London. I also expect to win Hallam, as O'Mara must surely have tarnished the Labour tag as he was after all originally a Labour MP. I am hoping for forty plus seats, but expecting 30+. Could do with more coverage on tv - the policy of inbvesting in mental health services was hardly mentioned tonight.
Re mental health - poor tactics to announce policy on day of another party launch. Labour played it well by contrast
The mental health policy is great. Really impressed. They need to repeat it again when there is more air space.
Quite a mountain to climb though. In 2019 there were only 14 Child and Adolescent Psychiatry trainees recruited nationally. None were started in the East Midlands, NE England, Scotland or Wales.
Adult Psychiatry was a little better with 443 Trainees started, 8% posts unfillable, but 129 of the Trainees were in London. The regions are poorly served once more.
One of the biggest challenges for Psychiatry is the difficulty in getting graduates to apply. It has one of the lowest competition ratios of all specialities. The reasons are complex, but seemingly intractable. Not least is the absence of funding for inpatient units. Having suicidal patients but no possibility of admission is extremely common and extremely stressful for family and professional alike.
Is there a case for paying graduates (more?) to train in shortage areas? In teaching there is now a £26,000 bursary for Physics teachers. I missed out on that by a couple of decades...
I don't think it fundamentally a money issue. Psychiatry applicants are more or less guaranteed swift progression to a Consultant salary in the region of their choice. It is getting graduates interested in the first place that is difficult.
International recruitment is also problematic. A broken bone is the same in Mumbai and Melton Mowbray, but a psychosis manifests rather differently.
What do you think could or should be done? What would have persuaded you to become a psychiatrist?
Guardian saying The announcement of Watson’s departure was carefully choreographed with Corbyn’s office, and there was speculation at Westminster that he could be granted a peerage by the Labour leader after the general election. Just to clear that one up, as a few people thought it was sign of Labour war and meltdown when news first hit.
I think it’s an issue for the moderates next time.
Obviously the media talks about the known players but they seem to continually recycle Watson, Cooper, Benn etc as the standard bearers. Watson was someone who the moderates could have coalesced around. I don’t see the hunger in Cooper, and suspect (IANAE) that Benn doesn’t have the power base.
Who is going to lead the moderates to regain control of Labour?
Do we definitely know if Cooper is standing again?
Her Twitter handle isn't clear:
Yvette Cooper @YvetteCooperMP Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Labour (Now Parliament has dissolved there are no MPs)
Others describe themselves as "[Party] Candidate for [Constituency]:
Hilary Benn @hilarybennmp Labour Candidate for Leeds Central in the 2019 General Election. Parliament is now dissolved so there are no MPs until after the election.
YCB is never going to be anything of moment in The Court of the Crimson King. However, once the keeper of the city keys puts shutters on the dreams and the Corbyn project finally falls she'd be in with a sporting chance of being leader. She's basically Jess Phillips with no discernible personality. That seems like type of thing the Labour party might go for.
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
What do we think the chances are that somebody is going to leak that Russian interference report during the campaign?
More likely than not? 60%-80%?
I'd have thought so. Which begs the question: why doesn't the government release it now and get it out of the way so that it will be forgotten by 12th Dec?
Sadly the answer may be because they are a bit dim.
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
What do we think the chances are that somebody is going to leak that Russian interference report during the campaign?
More likely than not? 60%-80%?
I doubt it. The people involved in writing and contributing to it it are well aware of the dangers of leaking stuff like this and of the dangers, professionally, of not being seen as trustworthy. Those with a reputation for leaking in No 10 are those keenest on keeping it from the public gaze.
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
I don't disagree with that but...
1. There is zero chance of a majority Green adminstration. 2. Their objective is to move the Overton window, which they have been doing successfully if slowly for years.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
I think that's right. But it's not representative of what many Green activists feel. How much does that matter? Dunno.
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
What do we think the chances are that somebody is going to leak that Russian interference report during the campaign?
More likely than not? 60%-80%?
I doubt it. The people involved in writing and contributing to it it are well aware of the dangers of leaking stuff like this and of the dangers, professionally, of not being seen as trustworthy. Those with a reputation for leaking in No 10 are those keenest on keeping it from the public gaze.
It seems right up the Sunday Times street to look for this report and presumably several of the MPs leaving the Commons would know whats in it even if they dont have the final version?
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
I don't disagree with that but...
1. There is zero chance of a majority Green adminstration. 2. Their objective is to move the Overton window, which they have been doing successfully if slowly for years.
And I can’t disagree with that!
I am experiencing an unusual technical issue with PB this morning: it seems to be riddled with an outbreak of agreement and consensus.
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
I don't disagree with that but...
1. There is zero chance of a majority Green adminstration. 2. Their objective is to move the Overton window, which they have been doing successfully if slowly for years.
And I can’t disagree with that!
I am experiencing an unusual technical issue with PB this morning: it seems to be riddled with an outbreak of agreement and consensus.
Could this be a virus?
Mornings you get sensible commentary and discussions. Evenings tend to be arguments over whether black is white or not.
On the Wokingham poll. I was born and brought up there and my parents still live there on a rather leafy cul-de-sac. My father voted Leave and my mother Remain. Despite being almost lifelong Tory voters they both voted LibDem in the last locals. John Redwood is not popular even putting his views on Brexit to one side.
Wokingham has had a massive influx of new residents with vast swathes of fields being obliterated by new builds (one of the reasons I moved out of the area 7 years ago). My mother tell me that these people are likely to be more LibDem leaning.
I am not surprised by the poll and I think at least my Mother is tempted to vote LD. If she and others like her do then Redwood could well lose. I'm not a Redwood fan despite being a Leaver but I pointed out the dangers of voting LD and letting Corbyn in through the back door. Both my parents believe Corbyn would be an absolute disaster for the country.
Bottom line is that I would not be surprised if the LDs win in Wokingham but will people like my Mother at the last minute think the risk of voting LD is worth it in the privacy of the polling booth?
The LDs candidate is ex Tory MP Philip Lee
Going to love seeing all those LibDem activists pounding the pavement for HIM!
I know Wokingham from growing up close by and living there a few years ago (sh!t it’s more like a decade and a half now). Most people who lived there traditionally worked in the tech sector in Reading or Bracknell, with a minority of commuters to London (there’s a direct train link).
Do we think that the new residents there are more likely to be London commuters, rather than more local workers?
The poll seems generous to the LDs, but as @AlistairM says above, the closeness of it might be enough to persuade people to go back to backing Redwood. The residents of Wokingham definitely won’t want to see Corbyn form a government, irrespective of their views on Brexit.
The direct train link to Waterloo from Wokingham is painfully slow. It is 32 miles out but takes over an hour. In comparison where I am now on Bucks/Ox borders we are 38 miles out but you can get in in 35 minutes. I don't think there will be many more London commuters. However I suspect there will be a large number who have moved out of London and working in businesses on the M4 corridor.
If I were the Brexit party though standing anyone against Redwood is a dangerous and silly move.
Another routine day in the Black Country: 1. Labour's Deputy Leader and standard bearer against Corbyn quits as MP for West Brom East. 2. Dudley North MP elected as Labour MP quits and calls on people to vote Tory.
What do you think the Black Country voters will make of Austin’s pronouncements? The sage advice of a principled man who’s seen the Boris light, or the ravings of a bitter has-been?
If they split half and half, Labour is still toast.....
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
Depends what you mean by full on green policies. As proposed by the lefty side of the Green party then yes. Other green approaches are available, the centre piece of which should be making the UK economy focus on exporting green technology and processes around the world, and creating the education, regulatory, investment, research and tax policies to allow that to flourish. (All parties pay lip service to the above, but are not really doing much)
That’s why I said Green rather than green. The Green movement is on the whole rather selective in the science it agrees with: climate change is real and we are causing it so we should be building more nuclear power stations and developing GM crops to help reduce deforestation and to cope with the changed conditions. XR in particular seem to oppose any suggested technological solutions.
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
That is how most Tories know Corbyn, but coming from Ian Austin that is a home truth addressed to Labour supporters.
While I share Austin’s analysis, it may have less force than it might otherwise when we have had reports that Trump, the current Tory party’s best friend, did not believe that Putin was behind the Skripal affair.
Personally, I find it deeply saddening that in Britain in 2019, there should have to be a plea on the front page of a newspaper for voters to pay regard to the fears of a small minority group when casting their vote, to say “Please don’t forget us. Our fears are real.” It is utterly shaming.
And it is not just Jews who feel like that. Far right extremism is on the rise, according to reports. EU citizens who have lived here for years feel uncertain and worried.
Never mind unlocking Britain’s potential. A return to some old-fashioned decency would be welcome.
Heidi Allen is a big loss to the Lib Dems . I’m pretty sure she’d have held her seat , not just that she has both charisma , speaks well and is very pretty which helps !
Just seeing here in the Unite to Remain video , that has a great ring to it . With no Labour involvement it does make the impact much less but it all helps .
I think it could have an additional impact though on Labour Remainers in that seat , if the literature is going to households with Unite to Remain one could see a bigger tactical vote by those Labour voters .
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
I don't disagree with that but...
1. There is zero chance of a majority Green adminstration. 2. Their objective is to move the Overton window, which they have been doing successfully if slowly for years.
And I can’t disagree with that!
I am experiencing an unusual technical issue with PB this morning: it seems to be riddled with an outbreak of agreement and consensus.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
But retoxify the LDs in the eyes of potential switchers from the right. I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
Depends what you mean by full on green policies. As proposed by the lefty side of the Green party then yes. Other green approaches are available, the centre piece of which should be making the UK economy focus on exporting green technology and processes around the world, and creating the education, regulatory, investment, research and tax policies to allow that to flourish. (All parties pay lip service to the above, but are not really doing much)
The only way to advance is to invest in technology.
Those trying to tell the West that they must give up their standard of living are always going to be doomed to fail, as are those that try to tell the developing world that they can’t advance as other nations have in the past.
The absolute best return on investment is in education, especially of girls in the developing world. There’s a massive correlation between female education levels and birth rates, saving the planet means reducing the population explosion of the past 100 years.
There are people from Wokingham who use the Paddington line (I used to commute from Paddington to Wokingham via Reading, bizarrely) and I suspect Crossrail may increase this.
That aside, the tech sector is very pro-EU, and I can’t see Redwood being an appealing prospect for many of them.
One good thing about the Green/Lib Dem alliance is that it will help detoxify the Lib Dems in the eyes of centre-left voters who opposed the coalition. This could boost the LD vote even in seats where the pact isn’t operating
I think that’s true.
In my experience most voters are mildly positive about the Greens, seeing them as slightly idealistic good-lifers rather than left-wing extremists. That may be because most voters have only the vaguest idea what the Greens' policies are in detail but it's the effect that matters.
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
Full on Green policies would have an effect on the British economy orders of magnitude more damaging than those of Brexit.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
Depends what you mean by full on green policies. As proposed by the lefty side of the Green party then yes. Other green approaches are available, the centre piece of which should be making the UK economy focus on exporting green technology and processes around the world, and creating the education, regulatory, investment, research and tax policies to allow that to flourish. (All parties pay lip service to the above, but are not really doing much)
The only way to advance is to invest in technology.
Those trying to tell the West that they must give up their standard of living are always going to be doomed to fail, as are those that try to tell the developing world that they can’t advance as other nations have in the past.
The absolute best return on investment is in education, especially of girls in the developing world. There’s a massive correlation between female education levels and birth rates, saving the planet means reducing the population explosion of the past 100 years.
Yes and there is loads we can do, we are already good at science. Replace geography with environment at school. We could make degrees related to environment tech and science free, or even give small bursaries for them. We could exempt firms in those sectors from various taxes for the next 20 years and give them easy access to work permits for foreign scientists to allow them to build, recruit and flourish.
As a Lib Dem I never bet on them as my emotional attachment can overcome my logical assumptions. However having worked for a previous Lib Dem MP for Cheltenham, I would be surprised and gutted if we don't win this time. I would think the Lib Dems won't do as well as hoped in many leave areas in the South West, but better in remain seats in and around London. I also expect to win Hallam, as O'Mara must surely have tarnished the Labour tag as he was after all originally a Labour MP. I am hoping for forty plus seats, but expecting 30+. Could do with more coverage on tv - the policy of inbvesting in mental health services was hardly mentioned tonight.
Re mental health - poor tactics to announce policy on day of another party launch. Labour played it well by contrast
The mental health policy is great. Really impressed. They need to repeat it again when there is more air space.
Quite a mountain to climb though. In 2019 there were only 14 Child and Adolescent Psychiatry trainees recruited nationally. None were started in the East Midlands, NE England, Scotland or Wales.
Adult Psychiatry was a little better with 443 Trainees started, 8% posts unfillable, but 129 of the Trainees were in London. The regions are poorly served once more.
One of the biggest challenges for Psychiatry is the difficulty in getting graduates to apply. It has one of the lowest competition ratios of all specialities. The reasons are complex, but seemingly intractable. Not least is the absence of funding for inpatient units. Having suicidal patients but no possibility of admission is extremely common and extremely stressful for family and professional alike.
There was an interesting article in the Dundee Courier recently looking at some of the statistics behind our desperate record on drug deaths. The one that really stood out for me (our statistics were worse than the Scottish average in every category bar 1) was mental health. From memory 64% of those who died of a drug overdose in Dundee had a diagnosed mental health problem The Scottish average was just over 50%.
What this screamed out to me was that if we wished to reduce the carnage caused by drugs in our city we really, really have to improve our mental health services. The local specialist unit has a poor reputation both in terms of quality of service and also in its attitude to drug users. People from areas of multiple deprivation with a mental health problem self medicating = death.
Anecdotally talking to 3 (so a massive sample that is obviously representative of the whole nation) the following:
1 Never voted will definitely vote in this election 1 Votes on occasions, definitely voting this election 1 Votes most elections definitely voting this election
That points to an increased turnout, do the polls give any indication of projected turnout?
How much will December dull the enthusiasm? Wil the postal strike stymie large numbers?
Added: And who will gain from high / low turnout, or will it be a variable benefit depending on the particular seat?
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
That is how most Tories know Corbyn, but coming from Ian Austin that is a home truth addressed to Labour supporters.
While I share Austin’s analysis, it may have less force than it might otherwise when we have had reports that Trump, the current Tory party’s best friend, did not believe that Putin was behind the Skripal affair.
Personally, I find it deeply saddening that in Britain in 2019, there should have to be a plea on the front page of a newspaper for voters to pay regard to the fears of a small minority group when casting their vote, to say “Please don’t forget us. Our fears are real.” It is utterly shaming.
And it is not just Jews who feel like that. Far right extremism is on the rise, according to reports. EU citizens who have lived here for years feel uncertain and worried.
Never mind unlocking Britain’s potential. A return to some old-fashioned decency would be welcome.
One of the Tories biggest weaknesses (and I hope fears) is to be seen as friends of Trump. He does have some fans in the UK but I suspect that most of them will be voting Brexit.
"At every opportunity, he backs our country's enemies."
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
That is how most Tories know Corbyn, but coming from Ian Austin that is a home truth addressed to Labour supporters.
While I share Austin’s analysis, it may have less force than it might otherwise when we have had reports that Trump, the current Tory party’s best friend, did not believe that Putin was behind the Skripal affair.
Personally, I find it deeply saddening that in Britain in 2019, there should have to be a plea on the front page of a newspaper for voters to pay regard to the fears of a small minority group when casting their vote, to say “Please don’t forget us. Our fears are real.” It is utterly shaming.
And it is not just Jews who feel like that. Far right extremism is on the rise, according to reports. EU citizens who have lived here for years feel uncertain and worried.
Never mind unlocking Britain’s potential. A return to some old-fashioned decency would be welcome.
Was it ever there or was it just a front? Has Brexit unmasked closeted hypocrisy and shown us as we really are?
Comments
Yvette Cooper
@YvetteCooperMP
Normanton, Pontefract & Castleford Labour (Now Parliament has dissolved there are no MPs)
Others describe themselves as "[Party] Candidate for [Constituency]:
Hilary Benn
@hilarybennmp
Labour Candidate for Leeds Central in the 2019 General Election. Parliament is now dissolved so there are no MPs until after the election.
https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1192352061037391872
Labour - Hold my beer.
https://twitter.com/colinrtalbot/status/1192359239311859712?s=20
"Haven't you had enough choice of those this year?"
"Fair point...."
(previously a LibDem, btw....)
Alistair Meeks cites a swing in the opinion polling of ~6% since the last general election. There's a big mountain to climb.
Precisely the kind of constituency where Remainers will vote tactically whether the parties have a pact or not. And the antics of Clifton-Brown will probably push a few more Lab supporters to hold their noses and vote for Webster.
I mean, the Green Party are even more alarming than the Labour Party. At least Labour have a core of MPs with a grip on reality. The Greens are uniformly bonkers.
Another huge political day yesterday - elections sometimes do this but not always.
I doubt Ian Austin's call will resonate the same way Enoch's did in the opposite direction and even the Watson resignation seems to be getting lost in the new day.
Watson's a shrewd political operator and perhaps realised the impact of leaving at the cusp of an election campaign would be far different to leaving in normal times - it's also interesting he's not left with a valedictory call to arms which might have initiated a more definitive schism.
IF Corbyn stands down after a heavy defeat next month we'll be facing both leader and deputy leadership elections for Labour in the new year and as I've always said, defeat brings opportunities.
https://t.co/p25zWGBiDV
Chuka just 8% behind in Cities of London and Westminster
https://t.co/p25zWGBiDV
Adult Psychiatry was a little better with 443 Trainees started, 8% posts unfillable, but 129 of the Trainees were in London. The regions are poorly served once more.
One of the biggest challenges for Psychiatry is the difficulty in getting graduates to apply. It has one of the lowest competition ratios of all specialities. The reasons are complex, but seemingly intractable. Not least is the absence of funding for inpatient units. Having suicidal patients but no possibility of admission is extremely common and extremely stressful for family and professional alike.
We may not know if Boris has his majority until late Friday afternoon......
(Or to be fair, as soon as the exit poll comes out....)
Tories have crashed everything and wrecked the country.
Labour will spend hundreds of billions on stuff.
This is easy to fund because interest rates are so low so we can borrow it all.
Other economically crashed countries like Italy have higher interest rates so they can't do this.
I don't think anyone on Radio 4 seriously questioned this line of argument.
RLB and Laura Pidcock could have great future doing comedy on the 6.30 pm Radio 4 slot once they are done with running the country.
Standing aside from a whole bunch of seats to "Unite to Remain" is somewhat contradictory to that, as it suggests that Brexit is more important.
And if you dislike such electoral pacts, then vote for PR to replace FPTP.
All three should turn this into the Environmental election. Getting the young out to vote is key, and environmentalism is strong with older voters too, and a way to turn them away from the blue meanies.
And it's not as though the Lib Dems disagree with them on the issue.
I still think that this election could produce almost any result short of a Corbyn majority, there’s definitely going to be an almighty churn in many seats that have been considered safe for decades. Comments from those on the ground are invaluable and hopefully will contribute to betting profits come election night.
Well done PB and Mike OGH.
Clearly a man with an open mind and committed to public services, both of which seem admirable qualities.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1192359527666143232?s=20
The pact can only boost their chances overall.
That's potent. Focusses the minds of a lot of wavering Tories.
PS. If the Yorkshire Party stand in the Black Country, I'll vote for them.
If I were a politically motivated cynic, I'd wonder if there was a political message behind the TfL plan in terms of where it was going to have an impact.
It is a Brexit election. With spending by everyone who can open a chequebook. Oh and don't forget Greta.
International recruitment is also problematic. A broken bone is the same in Mumbai and Melton Mowbray, but a psychosis manifests rather differently.
Do we think that the new residents there are more likely to be London commuters, rather than more local workers?
The poll seems generous to the LDs, but as @AlistairM says above, the closeness of it might be enough to persuade people to go back to backing Redwood. The residents of Wokingham definitely won’t want to see Corbyn form a government, irrespective of their views on Brexit.
TIming is important though... now is way too soon. Think how much more impact the Trump tapes would have had if they'd come out the weekend before the 2016 election.
The climate conference was moved from Chile because of the violent protests over the rising prices caused by Green policies. The full suite of XR demands could only be implemented by a fairly ruthless dictatorship.
1. Labour's Deputy Leader and standard bearer against Corbyn quits as MP for West Brom East.
2. Dudley North MP elected as Labour MP quits and calls on people to vote Tory.
All they've done is take the swing numbers from the London poll and apply them universally to the 2017 vote shares which isn't difficult to do for someone with basic Excel skills.
How anyone can take them seriously or be using them as a basis for betting defies any kind of logic. At least when I lose money at the races, I've got the Racing Post and Timeform to blame rather than the trusty pin.
1. There is zero chance of a majority Green adminstration.
2. Their objective is to move the Overton window, which they have been doing successfully if slowly for years.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2016_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum_by_constituency
There does seem to be rather more wishful thinking than basic research taking place.
OGH re Runnymede & Weybridge is another example.
There may be a cohort who are tempted LD on fiscal responsibility grounds (I don't know whether the LDs are in favour of fiscal responsibility these days, but no one else seems to be) but who are put off by the association with the Greens (particularly if they have no LD to stand for as their candidate has stood aside). But I don't know how big a cohort that is. Maybe there aren't any voters left who care about that sort of thing.
Could this be a virus?
If I were the Brexit party though standing anyone against Redwood is a dangerous and silly move.
Bostin' Steve Austin!
Personally, I find it deeply saddening that in Britain in 2019, there should have to be a plea on the front page of a newspaper for voters to pay regard to the fears of a small minority group when casting their vote, to say “Please don’t forget us. Our fears are real.” It is utterly shaming.
And it is not just Jews who feel like that. Far right extremism is on the rise, according to reports. EU citizens who have lived here for years feel uncertain and worried.
Never mind unlocking Britain’s potential. A return to some old-fashioned decency would be welcome.
Those trying to tell the West that they must give up their standard of living are always going to be doomed to fail, as are those that try to tell the developing world that they can’t advance as other nations have in the past.
The absolute best return on investment is in education, especially of girls in the developing world. There’s a massive correlation between female education levels and birth rates, saving the planet means reducing the population explosion of the past 100 years.
There are people from Wokingham who use the Paddington line (I used to commute from Paddington to Wokingham via Reading, bizarrely) and I suspect Crossrail may increase this.
That aside, the tech sector is very pro-EU, and I can’t see Redwood being an appealing prospect for many of them.
https://www.mrs.org.uk/resources/interpreting-polls-and-election-data-guidance-for-media-and-journalists-
What this screamed out to me was that if we wished to reduce the carnage caused by drugs in our city we really, really have to improve our mental health services. The local specialist unit has a poor reputation both in terms of quality of service and also in its attitude to drug users. People from areas of multiple deprivation with a mental health problem self medicating = death.
Anecdotally talking to 3 (so a massive sample that is obviously representative of the whole nation) the following:
1 Never voted will definitely vote in this election
1 Votes on occasions, definitely voting this election
1 Votes most elections definitely voting this election
That points to an increased turnout, do the polls give any indication of projected turnout?
How much will December dull the enthusiasm? Wil the postal strike stymie large numbers?
Added: And who will gain from high / low turnout, or will it be a variable benefit depending on the particular seat?