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SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited November 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Constituency betting round-up

Sitting MP Anne Milton now to stand as an Independent in Guildford. pic.twitter.com/2ubZ7vAqNo

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    First...as in the door for anybody turning up for an interview at my company wearing a Tescos suit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    edited November 2019
    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    FTP:
    Cyclefree said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have never read any Terry Pratchett. Mind you, I don’t read much fiction generally. What genre are they?

    Jonathan Swift meets JRR Tolkien, with characters by PG Wodehouse and dialogue by Douglas Adams. Joseph Heller that's actually funny. Aaron Sorkin with elves. More quotable than Shakespeare. I may not have enough superlatives.

    The books are set on the Discworld and are populated by elves, vampires, dwarfs, werewolves and humans, but they all talk like real people. Each book revolves around the problems of a small group or single individual as something bad happens and they work around a solution. Along the way the dialogue is peppery, the plots skip along, and the characters are well drawn. Most characters appear in more than one book and the society evolves from mediaeval times via Renaissance Italy to the early industrial revolution. By the end it is roundly stocked and the characters write themselves.

    Forty one books. At one every six months, that's the next 20 years sorted out. You can thank me later... :)
    OK. Is there a starter book? Because much as I appreciate all the responses elves and vampires who talk like PG Wodehouse are not instantly appealing.

    My all-time favourite modern - and recently deceased - writer is William Trevor, closely followed by John McGahern. Their worlds seem very different to Discworld.

    Also who or what are/is Radiohead? This is said in a polite humble and uber-respectful, indeed grovelling, way as it seems to be important to the very wise and brilliant @rcs1000 (Is that enough grovelling? .)
    Start with "Mort"

    Death comes to us all, when he came to Mort he offered him a job ...

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    edited November 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have never read any Terry Pratchett. Mind you, I don’t read much fiction generally. What genre are they?

    Jonathan Swift meets JRR Tolkien, with characters by PG Wodehouse and dialogue by Douglas Adams. Joseph Heller that's actually funny. Aaron Sorkin with elves. More quotable than Shakespeare. I may not have enough superlatives.

    The books are set on the Discworld and are populated by elves, vampires, dwarfs, werewolves and humans, but they all talk like real people. Each book revolves around the problems of a small group or single individual as something bad happens and they work around a solution. Along the way the dialogue is peppery, the plots skip along, and the characters are well drawn. Most characters appear in more than one book and the society evolves from mediaeval times via Renaissance Italy to the early industrial revolution. By the end it is roundly stocked and the characters write themselves.

    Forty one books. At one every six months, that's the next 20 years sorted out. You can thank me later... :)
    OK. Is there a starter book? Because much as I appreciate all the responses elves and vampires who talk like PG Wodehouse are not instantly appealing.
    Whilst the series is, for the most part, chronological, there tend to be sequences of books with specific main characters in specific locations, my favourite being the Watch sequence, which started with Guards Guards, though personally I'd start with the second Men-at-Arms. They were followed by Feet of Clay, Jingo, The Fifth Element,Night Watch and Thud, and are among the best in the series to see the setting grow and develop from mere parody into something more. Feet of Clay was the first Discworld book I ever read.

    However, I genuinely think one of the best ones to start with to see if you like the style (other than that it has chapters, which most of the series do not) is Going Postal, as it starts off a new sequence, with a main character almost designed to not accidentally drag in main characters from other books and have it become about them. It's about a con man being tasked to revitalise a postal service and shady banking and business dealings!

    I think more politicians should try to emulate Lord Vetinari, the Patrician of Ankh-Morpork - if you are going to be mildly nefarious, at least be competent about it.
    Jonathan said:

    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.

    Restrained, it is not. I know people were wondering when the Tories would start campaigning already, but you don't need to go from 0 to 100 in a day.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Nick Herbert not standing again.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Cyclefree said:

    Nick Herbert not standing again.

    BLIMEY..
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have never read any Terry Pratchett. Mind you, I don’t read much fiction generally. What genre are they?

    Jonathan Swift meets JRR Tolkien, with characters by PG Wodehouse and dialogue by Douglas Adams. Joseph Heller that's actually funny. Aaron Sorkin with elves. More quotable than Shakespeare. I may not have enough superlatives.

    The books are set on the Discworld and are populated by elves, vampires, dwarfs, werewolves and humans, but they all talk like real people. Each book revolves around the problems of a small group or single individual as something bad happens and they work around a solution. Along the way the dialogue is peppery, the plots skip along, and the characters are well drawn. Most characters appear in more than one book and the society evolves from mediaeval times via Renaissance Italy to the early industrial revolution. By the end it is roundly stocked and the characters write themselves.

    Forty one books. At one every six months, that's the next 20 years sorted out. You can thank me later... :)
    OK. Is there a starter book? Because much as I appreciate all the responses elves and vampires who talk like PG Wodehouse are not instantly appealing.
    Whilst the series is, for the most part, chronological, there tend to be sequences of books with specific main characters in specific locations, my favourite being the Watch sequence, which started with Guards Guards, though personally I'd start with the second Men-at-Arms. They were followed by Feet of Clay, Jingo, The Fifth Element,Night Watch and Thud, and are among the best in the series to see the setting grow and develop from mere parody into something more. Feet of Clay was the first Discworld book I ever read.

    However, I genuinely think one of the best ones to start with to see if you like the style (other than that it has chapters, which most of the series do not) is Going Postal, as it starts off a new sequence, with a main character almost designed to not accidentally drag in main characters from other books and have it become about them. It's about a con man being tasked to revitalise a postal service and shady banking and business dealings!
    Jonathan said:

    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.

    Restrained, it is not. I know people were wondering when the Tories would start campaigning already, but you don't need to go from 0 to 100 in a day.
    I think he does and every day from now on

    He either wins or brexit dies
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    Juncker says not realistic for a new Deal from Labour but not up to him
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Cyclefree said:

    Nick Herbert not standing again.

    Never heard of him. I see his middle name is 'Le Quesne', which is an interesting one.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    viewcode said:

    Cyclefree said:

    I have never read any Terry Pratchett. Mind you, I don’t read much fiction generally. What genre are they?

    Jonathan Swift meets JRR Tolkien, with characters by PG Wodehouse and dialogue by Douglas Adams. Joseph Heller that's actually funny. Aaron Sorkin with elves. More quotable than Shakespeare. I may not have enough superlatives.

    The books are set on the Discworld and are populated by elves, vampires, dwarfs, werewolves and humans, but they all talk like real people. Each book revolves around the problems of a small group or single individual as something bad happens and they work around a solution. Along the way the dialogue is peppery, the plots skip along, and the characters are well drawn. Most characters appear in more than one book and the society evolves from mediaeval times via Renaissance Italy to the early industrial revolution. By the end it is roundly stocked and the characters write themselves.

    Forty one books. At one every six months, that's the next 20 years sorted out. You can thank me later... :)
    OK. Is there a starter book? Because much as I appreciate all the responses elves and vampires who talk like PG Wodehouse are not instantly appealing.
    Whilst the series is, for the most part, chronological, there tend to be sequences of books with specific main characters in specific locations, my favourite being the Watch sequence, which started with Guards Guards, though personally I'd start with the second Men-at-Arms. They were followed by Feet of Clay, Jingo, The Fifth Element,Night Watch and Thud, and are among the best in the series to see the setting grow and develop from mere parody into something more. Feet of Clay was the first Discworld book I ever read.

    However, I genuinely think one of the best ones to start with to see if you like the style (other than that it has chapters, which most of the series do not) is Going Postal, as it starts off a new sequence, with a main character almost designed to not accidentally drag in main characters from other books and have it become about them. It's about a con man being tasked to revitalise a postal service and shady banking and business dealings!
    Jonathan said:

    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.

    Restrained, it is not. I know people were wondering when the Tories would start campaigning already, but you don't need to go from 0 to 100 in a day.
    It's been another dire day for Tory HQ. BBC News at 10 leading with two different Tory Cabinet ministers in differing types of utter shit.

    Maybe they are getting the crap out of the way before the Queen actually blows the start whistle tomorrow.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nick Herbert not standing again.

    Never heard of him. I see his middle name is 'Le Quesne', which is an interesting one.
    Police Minister, I believe.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    kle4 said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Nick Herbert not standing again.

    Never heard of him. I see his middle name is 'Le Quesne', which is an interesting one.
    Husband of Caroline Lucas is Richard Le Quesne Savage.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    First...as in the door for anybody turning up for an interview at my company wearing a Tescos suit.

    You check the labels of interviewees' suits?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Anyway, this is a surprise. Theresa May has apparently signed up with the Washington Speakers Bureau.

    Words fail me.

    As indeed they do her.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,117
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    First...as in the door for anybody turning up for an interview at my company wearing a Tescos suit.

    You check the labels of interviewees' suits?

    I didn't think Tescos sells suits....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,717
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, this is a surprise. Theresa May has apparently signed up with the Washington Speakers Bureau.

    Words fail me.

    As indeed they do her.

    Do people have to pay extra for a comedy collapsing set?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited November 2019
    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point nationally.



    Oh, fuck
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Cyclefree said:

    Anyway, this is a surprise. Theresa May has apparently signed up with the Washington Speakers Bureau.

    Words fail me.

    As indeed they do her.

    I'm sure the good folk of County Durham will enjoy her talk.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    edited November 2019
    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    edited November 2019
    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    /twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Says rapper whose most famous lyric is fuck boris and.has been a massive fanboy.of jezza for years.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    45-49% is baked in for the parties of the right. The division of that vote is critical to the outcome of the election, but stories that excite left wing voters won't make any difference to that overall right wing vote share.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,622
    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    I suspect that's not going to influence many potential Conservative voters in London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    https://twitter.com/JewishChron/status/1191360301997932544?s=20
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
    It gets interesting when you look at, say, Ross Skye and Lochaber as well. Exactly the same thing happens. 2005-2015, a perfectly linear relationship, add in 2017 and then you have a cliff edge.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,149
    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Fine, it is the suburbs where the Tories lead, Grenfell is in inner London and Stormzy is a Corbyn supporter anyway
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Fine.

    Frankly, who cares what Stormzy, self-confessed foul-mouthed Corbynite thinks? Certainly not the people Labour need to win a GE.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    So from the daily borisgraph, it seems the tories are going to defending capitalism. Somebody has to, but i do wonder what the public will make of it, especially from a posho....hardly thatcher doing it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,868
    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Anyone who gives a fuck about what Stormzy thinks isn't going to consider voting Tory anyway. Though the lesson should be noted. Put JRM and the rest of his idiot crew in a box.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
    It gets interesting when you look at, say, Ross Skye and Lochaber as well. Exactly the same thing happens. 2005-2015, a perfectly linear relationship, add in 2017 and then you have a cliff edge.
    Might be interesting (depends how much of a nerd you are) to plot the delta between your model and the 2017 data point vs. the share of another party.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Jonathan said:

    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.

    Calling Corbyn a Stalinist is not "losing it". Arguably he is quite a lot worse....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited November 2019
    @HYUFD she also has had some robust views on The Labour Right.

    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1191839130105319431
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
    It gets interesting when you look at, say, Ross Skye and Lochaber as well. Exactly the same thing happens. 2005-2015, a perfectly linear relationship, add in 2017 and then you have a cliff edge.
    There was a wholesale Scottish Lib Dem -> Tory movement going on under the radar in 2017 GE in the Highlands.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    The hard left like rottenborough might vote for who some teeny bopper rapper tells them but I think most Londoners have made up their minds.

    According to the latest yougov 69% of Tory voters won't change their minds compared to 61% of Labour voters
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    basicbridge said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.

    Calling Corbyn a Stalinist is not "losing it". Arguably he is quite a lot worse....
    Er, Corbyn worse than Stalin?!
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    So from the daily borisgraph, it seems the tories are going to defending capitalism. Somebody has to, but i do wonder what the public will make of it, especially from a posho....hardly thatcher doing it.

    I don’t think they have a choice vs. full fat socialism. It may or may not work, but sometimes you have to attack the other side’s basic argument or you surrender the case.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited November 2019
    First I've heard of Claire Wright, very impressive to get 21k votes as an independent in a General Election where the smaller parties were squeezed. I'd assume the leave vote will coalesce around the Tories in East Devon though.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".

    Sounds a bit OTT.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    dr_spyn said:

    @HYUFD she also has had some robust views on The Labour Right.

    twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1191839130105319431

    This is the biggest.concern for me...Labour of the past wasnt stuffed with antisemites and extremists, now even when jezza has gone it is likely that the labour benches will be stuffed with many far more extreme than him.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    HYUFD said:

    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Fine, it is the suburbs where the Tories lead, Grenfell is in inner London and Stormzy is a Corbyn supporter anyway
    I'm sure that's true, though it's surely not been a good day for the party thanks to JRM's gaffing.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
    It gets interesting when you look at, say, Ross Skye and Lochaber as well. Exactly the same thing happens. 2005-2015, a perfectly linear relationship, add in 2017 and then you have a cliff edge.
    Might be interesting (depends how much of a nerd you are) to plot the delta between your model and the 2017 data point vs. the share of another party.
    I am a massive fucking nerd.

    My current approach is to try and identify when tactical voting kicks in and if that can be abstractly modelled. You can clearly split the Scottish Lib Dem seats into ones where they were the recipients of tactical votes and one where they were the donators of tactical votes - but the super interesting things is that it is not consistent between 2015 and 2017. So in Gordon the Lib Dems received the tactical votes in 2015 but then gave them in 2017. It explains the big 2017 down ticks in constituencies that they "did well" in in 2015.

    What I haven't done yet is look out how the LD vote did in not strong LD seats, ones were they have always been distance 3rd or 4th.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    kle4 said:

    basicbridge said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.

    Calling Corbyn a Stalinist is not "losing it". Arguably he is quite a lot worse....
    Er, Corbyn worse than Stalin?!
    Stalin wasnt an idiot.

    Corbyn with nukes anyone? Except he wont use them on anyone except our allies....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Brom said:

    The hard left like rottenborough might vote for who some teeny bopper rapper tells them but I think most Londoners have made up their minds.

    According to the latest yougov 69% of Tory voters won't change their minds compared to 61% of Labour voters

    Me? Hard Left? That is hilarious. Have you been on this site in last couple of years?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
    It gets interesting when you look at, say, Ross Skye and Lochaber as well. Exactly the same thing happens. 2005-2015, a perfectly linear relationship, add in 2017 and then you have a cliff edge.
    Come on Alistair - "a perfectly linear relationship". With three data-points!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1191845728471179264

    This is not looking very clever.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Anyone who gives a fuck about what Stormzy thinks isn't going to consider voting Tory anyway. Though the lesson should be noted. Put JRM and the rest of his idiot crew in a box.
    No, but this kind of thing might get the youth out to vote. I say 'might'.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
    It gets interesting when you look at, say, Ross Skye and Lochaber as well. Exactly the same thing happens. 2005-2015, a perfectly linear relationship, add in 2017 and then you have a cliff edge.
    There was a wholesale Scottish Lib Dem -> Tory movement going on under the radar in 2017 GE in the Highlands.
    Yes, I was banging on about this relentlessly after the eelction whilst people were trying to talk about SNP-to-Con switchers as if it was a thing.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,814
    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".

    Well, they have.

    They need less of these in the coming weeks. The Tory battleship is looking a bit leaky this evening.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit.

    Labour going "nah nah nah , not listening" on Brexit is what will be remembered longer term from today.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    rottenborough said:

    Brom said:

    The hard left like rottenborough might vote for who some teeny bopper rapper tells them but I think most Londoners have made up their minds.

    According to the latest yougov 69% of Tory voters won't change their minds compared to 61% of Labour voters

    Me? Hard Left? That is hilarious. Have you been on this site in last couple of years?
    Been in the site for years, just assumed from the childlike fawning over stormzy you were some anti Tory sort
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,775
    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Anyone who gives a fuck about what Stormzy thinks isn't going to consider voting Tory anyway. Though the lesson should be noted. Put JRM and the rest of his idiot crew in a box.
    I've no idea who Stormzy is - I presume that the Metro rates his views?
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Anyone who gives a fuck about what Stormzy thinks isn't going to consider voting Tory anyway. Though the lesson should be noted. Put JRM and the rest of his idiot crew in a box.
    No, but this kind of thing might get the youth out to vote. I say 'might'.
    Bollox to that. They may be young but their not idiots.

    How old are you?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    geoffw said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    The difficulty of modelling the Lib Dem Vote in Scotland

    Here, my friends is the Lib Dem Vote in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine plotted against the Scottish National Lib Dem vote for 2005, 2010 and 2015



    THat's piss easy to model right? That's the world's linearist relationship. I think it is pretty clear where you would plot the Lib Dems in West Aberdeenshire and Kinkardine with them polling 13% Nationally.

    Okay, lets add in 2017 - the Lib Dem vote only fell by 0.7 percentage point.



    Oh, fuck

    Can you use something like PCA to model it (with the other parties too)?
    It gets interesting when you look at, say, Ross Skye and Lochaber as well. Exactly the same thing happens. 2005-2015, a perfectly linear relationship, add in 2017 and then you have a cliff edge.
    Come on Alistair - "a perfectly linear relationship". With three data-points!
    I'll tell you something that doesn't have a perfectly linear relationship with 3 data points, the SNP vote 2005-2015 in any constituency.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    The Tories might have had a "poor day" but noones mind is going to be changed by today.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    edited November 2019
    numbertwelve said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".

    Well, they have.

    They need less of these in the coming weeks. The Tory battleship is looking a bit leaky this evening.
    I don't think they have had anything but crap days since the campaign started.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Boris Johnson is on track to win Labour bastions such as Bolsover and Tony Blair's former Sedgefield seat at the election, shock poll analysis shows

    Findings come from a seat-by-seat sample of 46,000 Britons for Best for Britain
    Tories would pick up a swathe of currently Labour-voting seats in the North
    But they risk losing affluent Remain seats like Cheltenham to the Lib Dems"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7652557/Boris-Johnson-track-win-Labour-bastions-like-Tony-Blairs-old-Sedgefield-seat-election.html
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    rottenborough said:

    Brom said:

    The hard left like rottenborough might vote for who some teeny bopper rapper tells them but I think most Londoners have made up their minds.

    According to the latest yougov 69% of Tory voters won't change their minds compared to 61% of Labour voters

    Me? Hard Left? That is hilarious. Have you been on this site in last couple of years?
    If you support Corbyn you're "hard left".

    Oops sorry. hes is just another scandi social democrat isnt he?!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    AndyJS said:

    "Boris Johnson is on track to win Labour bastions such as Bolsover and Tony Blair's former Sedgefield seat at the election, shock poll analysis shows

    Findings come from a seat-by-seat sample of 46,000 Britons for Best for Britain
    Tories would pick up a swathe of currently Labour-voting seats in the North
    But they risk losing affluent Remain seats like Cheltenham to the Lib Dems"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7652557/Boris-Johnson-track-win-Labour-bastions-like-Tony-Blairs-old-Sedgefield-seat-election.html

    If the tories are relying on this to win a majority, they are stuffed...it aint going to happen. Remember last time with all those flat cap working mens club types saying jezza fucking commie, will vote tory for the first time ever, yadda yadda and then....they didn't.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    basicbridge said:

    kle4 said:

    basicbridge said:

    Jonathan said:

    Curious to see Boris “Fuck Business” Johnson losing it in the telegraph.

    Calling Corbyn a Stalinist is not "losing it". Arguably he is quite a lot worse....
    Er, Corbyn worse than Stalin?!
    Stalin wasnt an idiot.

    Corbyn with nukes anyone? Except he wont use them on anyone except our allies....
    I deeply dislike Corbyn (partly because of things people praise him on, like supposedly not changing his views over many decades) and do not understand what about him in particular people get so adoring about, but even though he takes advice from people who said very stupid things about Stalin, he is definitely never ever going to be as bad as Stalin, idiot or no.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    rottenborough said:

    numbertwelve said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".

    Well, they have.

    They need less of these in the coming weeks. The Tory battleship is looking a bit leaky this evening.
    I don't think they have had anything but crap days since the campaign started.
    The public has already made up their mind about Corbyn.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit.

    Labour going "nah nah nah , not listening" on Brexit is what will be remembered longer term from today.
    Nope. Today's cut through will be JRM.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories might have had a "poor day" but noones mind is going to be changed by today.

    Drip, drip, drip...
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    edited November 2019
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1191845728471179264

    This is not looking very clever.

    They've learned nothing about candidate selection from the Jared O'Mara debacle
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit....
    Why then did the Tories feel the need to put out a fake video of the exchange with Starmer ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Boris Johnson is on track to win Labour bastions such as Bolsover and Tony Blair's former Sedgefield seat at the election, shock poll analysis shows

    Findings come from a seat-by-seat sample of 46,000 Britons for Best for Britain
    Tories would pick up a swathe of currently Labour-voting seats in the North
    But they risk losing affluent Remain seats like Cheltenham to the Lib Dems"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7652557/Boris-Johnson-track-win-Labour-bastions-like-Tony-Blairs-old-Sedgefield-seat-election.html

    If the tories are relying on this to win a majority, they are stuffed...it aint going to happen. Remember last time with all those flat cap working mens club types saying jezza fucking commie, will vote tory for the first time ever, yadda yadda and then....they didn't.
    I do get the impression they might make better inroads into those areas than they did last time, as part of increasing trends which last time were not enough to take those seats. But on the same basis I think it's right that they will lose seats to the opposite trend which they just held on to last time. And I think the former may be overestimated, so while he'll do better than May in those areas, it won't make up for doing worse in others.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories might have had a "poor day" but noones mind is going to be changed by today.

    Quite.

    A lot of excitable lefties here this evening. No voter is going to say "Rees Moggs an idiot so im going to vote Corbyn now".

    But keep on dreaming..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,124
    AramintaMoonbeamQC said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1191845728471179264

    This is not looking very clever.

    They've learned nothing about candidate selection from the Jared O'Mara debacle
    Its a feature, not a bug. See the candidate they kicked out for anti-Semitism, only to re-select for this election.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,212
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories might have had a "poor day" but noones mind is going to be changed by today.

    Drip, drip, drip...
    A leaking tap ?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,695
    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit.

    Labour going "nah nah nah , not listening" on Brexit is what will be remembered longer term from today.
    You've been watching the Tories' fake video.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories might have had a "poor day" but noones mind is going to be changed by today.

    Drip, drip, drip...
    You hope...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Boris Johnson is on track to win Labour bastions such as Bolsover and Tony Blair's former Sedgefield seat at the election, shock poll analysis shows

    Findings come from a seat-by-seat sample of 46,000 Britons for Best for Britain
    Tories would pick up a swathe of currently Labour-voting seats in the North
    But they risk losing affluent Remain seats like Cheltenham to the Lib Dems"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7652557/Boris-Johnson-track-win-Labour-bastions-like-Tony-Blairs-old-Sedgefield-seat-election.html

    If the tories are relying on this to win a majority, they are stuffed...it aint going to happen. Remember last time with all those flat cap working mens club types saying jezza fucking commie, will vote tory for the first time ever, yadda yadda and then....they didn't.
    I don't think they're relying on them but it would be adding to an already huge majority. I think Sedgefield is a seat too far, it last went blue in 1931
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,613
    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1191845728471179264

    This is not looking very clever.

    I can see a goodly number of the Labour vote in Coventry thinking "fuck that....."

    One Tory gain I shall be loudly cheering.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Anyone who gives a fuck about what Stormzy thinks isn't going to consider voting Tory anyway. Though the lesson should be noted. Put JRM and the rest of his idiot crew in a box.
    No, but this kind of thing might get the youth out to vote. I say 'might'.
    Bollox to that. They may be young but their not idiots.

    How old are you?
    Not young. I remember the 70s.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,153
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    The Tories might have had a "poor day" but noones mind is going to be changed by today.

    Drip, drip, drip...
    Quite. Taken day by day people will be able to argue that no one's mind will be made up by event X on day Y, and so therefore we must conclude no one's mind gets changed at all?

    Momentum and general impressions are hard to note, and hard to quanify their effect, but last time Labour were clearly on a roll and the Tories were not. If that continues, the Tories will be in trouble once again. We'll see how things stand in a couple of weeks I think.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Nigelb said:

    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit....
    Why then did the Tories feel the need to put out a fake video of the exchange with Starmer ?
    It wasnt really a fake now was it, though? Starmer hesitated several times in his answers and Labour's policy on Brexit is, indeed, literally, incredible. No more than the truth....
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    numbertwelve said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".

    Well, they have.

    They need less of these in the coming weeks. The Tory battleship is looking a bit leaky this evening.
    I don't think they have had anything but crap days since the campaign started.
    The public has already made up their mind about Corbyn.
    In 2017 he gained voters he never had, now he has to gain voters he has previously lost. Rarely do voters leave and then return to a PM. His work is cut out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,771
    Brom said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Boris Johnson is on track to win Labour bastions such as Bolsover and Tony Blair's former Sedgefield seat at the election, shock poll analysis shows

    Findings come from a seat-by-seat sample of 46,000 Britons for Best for Britain
    Tories would pick up a swathe of currently Labour-voting seats in the North
    But they risk losing affluent Remain seats like Cheltenham to the Lib Dems"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7652557/Boris-Johnson-track-win-Labour-bastions-like-Tony-Blairs-old-Sedgefield-seat-election.html

    If the tories are relying on this to win a majority, they are stuffed...it aint going to happen. Remember last time with all those flat cap working mens club types saying jezza fucking commie, will vote tory for the first time ever, yadda yadda and then....they didn't.
    I don't think they're relying on them but it would be adding to an already huge majority. I think Sedgefield is a seat too far, it last went blue in 1931
    Dunno. Tory Blur held it for a few years. :smiley:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Boris Johnson is on track to win Labour bastions such as Bolsover and Tony Blair's former Sedgefield seat at the election, shock poll analysis shows

    Findings come from a seat-by-seat sample of 46,000 Britons for Best for Britain
    Tories would pick up a swathe of currently Labour-voting seats in the North
    But they risk losing affluent Remain seats like Cheltenham to the Lib Dems"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7652557/Boris-Johnson-track-win-Labour-bastions-like-Tony-Blairs-old-Sedgefield-seat-election.html

    If the tories are relying on this to win a majority, they are stuffed...it aint going to happen. Remember last time with all those flat cap working mens club types saying jezza fucking commie, will vote tory for the first time ever, yadda yadda and then....they didn't.
    Labour's vote has been in decline for a long, long, time, in urban areas outside of the big cities, in the North and Midlands. I expect that Ashfield and Bishop Auckland will fall.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    rottenborough said:

    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    MaxPB said:

    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    Anyone who gives a fuck about what Stormzy thinks isn't going to consider voting Tory anyway. Though the lesson should be noted. Put JRM and the rest of his idiot crew in a box.
    No, but this kind of thing might get the youth out to vote. I say 'might'.
    Bollox to that. They may be young but their not idiots.

    How old are you?
    Not young. I remember the 70s.
    That doesnt make you (or me) young, im afraid...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    MarqueeMark said:

    dr_spyn said:

    https://twitter.com/politicshome/status/1191845728471179264

    This is not looking very clever.

    I can see a goodly number of the Labour vote in Coventry thinking "fuck that....."

    One Tory gain I shall be loudly cheering.
    Coventry South is going blue, they have a great candidate and the demographics are moving in their favour.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/JewishChron/status/1191360301997932544?s=20

    It's possible that Labour HQ will step in. They're already on target to lose 30 seats, throwing this one away as well would be reckless.
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Benpointer said:

    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit.

    Labour going "nah nah nah , not listening" on Brexit is what will be remembered longer term from today.
    You've been watching the Tories' fake video.
    Seems to me it was a pretty accurate reflection of the laughable confusion that is Labour's Brexit policy.

    Not talking about it wont make it go away, you know. You're not 10.....
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Nigelb said:

    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit....
    Why then did the Tories feel the need to put out a fake video of the exchange with Starmer ?
    i guess the cynic might say only the last few seconds are fake and the rest is exactly as shown so the faking little bit might spark more attention on social media to a GMB interview showing Reid higlighting the difficulty for Labour with their Brexit 'position' than might otherwise be achieved?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Another one of defence crumbles for Trump:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/with-revised-testimony-sondland-ties-trump-to-quid-pro-quo/2019/11/05/3059b3b8-ffec-11e9-9518-1e76abc088b6_story.html
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    How have we not started making jokes about today's Labour anti-Semitism car crash Zarah *Sultana*?

    Outside of an election period we'd all be raisin to do so.
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    rottenborough said:

    How's that London Tory surge looking tonight?

    https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1191829046503587840

    London is a huge city. This is nothing in the scheme of things, as sad as that sounds
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Have we had Richard Nabavi's verdict on Jo Swinson's hair today?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited November 2019
    5 weeks of hysteria over every word uttered to go!
    However I think its justified to be raisin concerns about the currant state of the Labour party re this Sultana woman
  • nunu2nunu2 Posts: 1,453
    For those interested in legislature elections in the American states......
    https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/1191839356362919936
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Drutt said:

    How have we not started making jokes about today's Labour anti-Semitism car crash Zarah *Sultana*?

    Outside of an election period we'd all be raisin to do so.

    It seems to be a historic issue, not currant.

    *gets coat*
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,236
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Nigelb said:

    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit....
    Why then did the Tories feel the need to put out a fake video of the exchange with Starmer ?
    i guess the cynic might say only the last few seconds are fake and the rest is exactly as shown so the faking little bit might spark more attention on social media to a GMB interview showing Reid higlighting the difficulty for Labour with their Brexit 'position' than might otherwise be achieved?
    So can’t even manage an attack on a barely defensible policy without lying ?
  • basicbridgebasicbridge Posts: 674
    Brom said:

    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    numbertwelve said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".

    Well, they have.

    They need less of these in the coming weeks. The Tory battleship is looking a bit leaky this evening.
    I don't think they have had anything but crap days since the campaign started.
    The public has already made up their mind about Corbyn.
    In 2017 he gained voters he never had, now he has to gain voters he has previously lost. Rarely do voters leave and then return to a PM. His work is cut out.
    Corbyn is no longer a blank canvass though, is he. The public has made up its mind.

    Voters arent going back to him in any numbers,
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Is this Survation on Wikipedia legit?

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    basicbridge said:

    Nigelb said:

    basicbridge said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".


    Breakfast TV showed Starmer admitting Labour had no credible policy on Brexit....
    Why then did the Tories feel the need to put out a fake video of the exchange with Starmer ?
    It wasnt really a fake now was it, though? Starmer hesitated several times in his answers and Labour's policy on Brexit is, indeed, literally, incredible. No more than the truth....
    You know we can see the actual interview footage right?

    The Tory Video is fake.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Tory MPs can afford to make a few gaffes, Labour will and are doing the same. What the Tories need to avoid is more than 1 or 2 Boris gaffes. People are voting for a PM and May made enough gaffes to make people feel very differently about her at the end of the campaign.

    Whether Boris can stay disciplined remains to be seen.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited November 2019
    numbertwelve said:

    rottenborough said:

    Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".

    Well, they have.

    They need less of these in the coming weeks. The Tory battleship is looking a bit leaky this evening.
    When was the last time the Tories actually had a good GE electioneering day? Probably in 2015 when Ed Miliband said on national TV that he didn't think Labour 97-2010 had overspent.

    One wonders if the Tories have simply lost the ability to win elections. 2017 was a disaster, this one is already starting to look ominous.

    I know the Tories aren't launching until tomorrow but the election's been fact since last Thursday - they look caught on the hop.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,114
    edited November 2019
    So tomorrow Boris goes to see the Queen and then makes a speech from Downing Street

    He then goes to the Midlands for his big campaign launch at 7.30pm

    I think he may take the agenda over for tomorrow
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,855
    Survation just out:

    https://twitter.com/OpinionBee/status/1191850972605235206
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,487
    I doubt the sinister Rees’ comments will make much difference to the polling. It’s probably what people would expect from him.
This discussion has been closed.