Objectively, it’s been a terrible day for the Tories.
Alan Cairns, possibly a resigning matter. No Deal back on the table. Fake videos of opponents. Grenfell victim-blaming. Suppression of the Russian interference report. A former Chancellor finally throws the towel in.
The media haven’t picked up the narrative though. I think people are so depressed by Corbyn and so unimpressed by Swinson that the Tories win by default.
You missed the Bludgeon “we need smart mogsters running the country” ?
A few days ago I said all the Tories had to do was do nothing for 6 weeks. But instead they've started to make all sorts of stupid and silly mistakes. It's almost like they want a repeat of 2017.
The data tables still have the date from the 29-30 Oct Survation poll. Confident it is a fake.
It's depressing if people really are putting fake polls out. Even two years ago no-one tried to do this on any scale. (Apologies if it's correct).
Yes, it is depressing. Of course today we have the Tories putting out a fake video of Keir Starmer not responding to a question he did answer. Fakery abounds. With the fake video technology now becoming possible there is potential for this to get a lot worse if people don't choose to rein it in.
Big mistake by the Tories to manipulate the video IMO.
If you didn’t know it was fake you would have believed it. You then found out you’ve been duped you very angry. And getting found out eats away at vital credibility on message.
I know HY said earlier the gloves are off this time, not letting Corbyn Labour get away with it a second time, but are there examples when negative campaigning won hearts and minds rather than losing them, Trump 2016 even was a lot of “make America great again, drain swamp, deal maker, best jobs president ever” positivity.
Even the big launch starting in the Borisgraph is personal on corbyn in bizarre Stalin comparisons. The class war provocation seems to be Tory driven so far, is that the master plan for capturing Labour areas?
The data tables still have the date from the 29-30 Oct Survation poll. Confident it is a fake.
It's depressing if people really are putting fake polls out. Even two years ago no-one tried to do this on any scale. (Apologies if it's correct).
Yes, it is depressing. Of course today we have the Tories putting out a fake video of Keir Starmer not responding to a question he did answer. Fakery abounds. With the fake video technology now becoming possible there is potential for this to get a lot worse if people don't choose to rein it in.
Big mistake by the Tories to manipulate the video IMO.
It’s just more cynical garbage Straight Outta Trumpton. Do something ridiculous, the media keeps talking about it, increasing your publicity. People are talking about Labour’s shit Brexit policy instead of the Tories’ even shitter one.
Tories telling Nick Watt that they have had a "truly dreadful day".
Well, they have.
They need less of these in the coming weeks. The Tory battleship is looking a bit leaky this evening.
When was the last time the Tories actually had a good GE electioneering day? Probably in 2015 when Ed Miliband said on national TV that he didn't think Labour 97-2010 had overspent.
Edstone Day was a good one. Well, a good laugh anyway.
We shall never see its like again. Oh, what hilarity it was, and the knowledge that so many people cleared it too.
For those who want to know what a bad day REALLY looks like....
A few days ago I said all the Tories had to do was do nothing for 6 weeks. But instead they've started to make all sorts of stupid and silly mistakes. It's almost like they want a repeat of 2017.
I can’t see it making much difference, unless the Labour manifesto is a soaraway success with the public (unlikely)
A few days ago I said all the Tories had to do was do nothing for 6 weeks. But instead they've started to make all sorts of stupid and silly mistakes. It's almost like they want a repeat of 2017.
Yes, your correct but I still think they'll win pretty comfortably.
A few days ago I said all the Tories had to do was do nothing for 6 weeks. But instead they've started to make all sorts of stupid and silly mistakes. It's almost like they want a repeat of 2017.
A few days ago I said all the Tories had to do was do nothing for 6 weeks. But instead they've started to make all sorts of stupid and silly mistakes. It's almost like they want a repeat of 2017.
They can't help themselves.
Its a combination of being mouthshites, thinking that they're cleverer than they are and having no self control.
Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario where this country isn’t totally and utterly screwed without prospect of recovery in2-3 years time?
Lab hold on, LD gains, minority Lab government, referendum cancels Brexit, Corbyn is PM, able to spend the Revoke dividend but can't break much without a majority.
...seems plausible, no? Sadly not actually *likely*...
The data tables still have the date from the 29-30 Oct Survation poll. Confident it is a fake.
It's depressing if people really are putting fake polls out. Even two years ago no-one tried to do this on any scale. (Apologies if it's correct).
Yes, it is depressing. Of course today we have the Tories putting out a fake video of Keir Starmer not responding to a question he did answer. Fakery abounds. With the fake video technology now becoming possible there is potential for this to get a lot worse if people don't choose to rein it in.
Big mistake by the Tories to manipulate the video IMO.
If you didn’t know it was fake you would have believed it. You then found out you’ve been duped you very angry. And getting found out eats away at vital credibility on message.
I know HY said earlier the gloves are off this time, not letting Corbyn Labour get away with it a second time, but are there examples when negative campaigning won hearts and minds rather than losing them, Trump 2016 even was a lot of “make America great again, drain swamp, deal maker, best jobs president ever” positivity.
Even the big launch starting in the Borisgraph is personal on corbyn in bizarre Stalin comparisons. The class war provocation seems to be Tory driven so far, is that the master plan for capturing Labour areas?
LBJ 1964, Bush Snr 1988, Tories 1992, Australian Labor 1993, German SDP 2002, Bush W 2004, Labour 2005, Obama 2O12, Australian Liberals 2019 all largely won on negative campaigning against the opposition despite the incumbents not being hugely popular
A few days ago I said all the Tories had to do was do nothing for 6 weeks. But instead they've started to make all sorts of stupid and silly mistakes. It's almost like they want a repeat of 2017.
TMay to Yakety Sax, episode 783
Hoping for an 'Iain Gray gets chased into Subway' moment, but then I hope for that in every election.
Meaningful vote at 1.19. Election 12 Dec, Fri 13 still being counted, so fasted route is Boris has majority and goes to see Queen. Queens speech Mon 16 followed by 5 days of debate. Parliament goes into recess presumably on Thur 19 Dec before debating queens speech can complete.
So is this a no risk 19% return over 5.2 weeks or could Boris plan a Christmas present for brexiteers of getting meaningful vote passed before Queens speech debate has completed?
Just seen the Keir Starmer doctored interview. Have the Tories always been shits or is it the Boris johnson influence?
I'll give them the benefit of the doubt and say it's the Boris Johnson influence.
Doctored interview, is the only bit out of sequence the reaction? It does accurately reflect Labour's Brexit policy though.
I still think they shouldn't have doctored the video, it's not the sort of thing the average Tory voter will be happy about.
True.
Average Tory voter here, and I think it's awful form and worse campaigning. Starmer looked stupid enough in the interview, and they've changed the story.
Swindon is a unitary authority area (or similar) so not administered by Wiltshire Council. But it's still in the ceremonial county of Wiltshire, just like the Medway Towns are still Kentish despite their artificial unitarity authority branding.
Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario where this country isn’t totally and utterly screwed without prospect of recovery in2-3 years time?
Boris No Confidence Corbyn No Confidence Swinson puts together a deal accepting some of labour policies on brexit and a few other areas for a LD/Lab/SNP/[PC/...] coalition, extension for referendum which has option to remain, and remain wins.
Swindon is a unitary authority area (or similar) so not administered by Wiltshire Council. But it's still in the ceremonial county of Wiltshire, just like the Medway Towns are still Kentish despite their artificial unitarity authority branding. </blockq
...and with 2 marginal(ish) seats so one to watch on GE night, Swindon North is normally early to declare, whilst Swindon South is one of those seats Labour must win if it is looking to get largest party/majority.
Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario where this country isn’t totally and utterly screwed without prospect of recovery in2-3 years time?
Boris No Confidence Corbyn No Confidence Swinson puts together a deal accepting some of labour policies on brexit and a few other areas for a LD/Lab/SNP/[PC/...] coalition, extension for referendum which has option to remain, and remain wins.
Oh err right, you said plausible.
I’m not convinced either of the offering so far actually meet the criteria for not leaving us screwed...
Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario where this country isn’t totally and utterly screwed without prospect of recovery in2-3 years time?
It's fashionable to be pessimistic these days but how about:
- Boris wins majority on 12th December; - Passes his Brexit deal through HoC unamended by Christmas, so that Brexit happens and happens smoothly, with the UK moving into the transition period with zero impact on economy, boosting sterling and consumer confidence in 2020; - UK and EU agree a trade deal faster than all envisage, so the transition ends in December 2020. - UK commences 2021 a fully independent trading nation with most citizens able to get by without having to see Brexit on the news (for weeks at a time) or being molested by more referendums or elections until the GE in 2024.
Can anyone come up with a plausible scenario where this country isn’t totally and utterly screwed without prospect of recovery in2-3 years time?
It's fashionable to be pessimistic these days but how about:
- Boris wins majority on 12th December; - Passes his Brexit deal through HoC unamended by Christmas, so that Brexit happens and happens smoothly, with the UK moving into the transition period with zero impact on economy, boosting sterling and consumer confidence in 2020; - UK and EU agree a trade deal faster than all envisage, so the transition ends in December 2020. - UK commences 2021 a fully independent trading nation with most citizens able to get by without having to see Brexit on the news (for weeks at a time) or being molested by more referendums or elections until the GE in 2024.
- UK and EU agree a trade deal faster than all envisage, so the transition ends in December 2020.
I think the scenario had to be *plausible*? They don't just have to negotiate the trade deal and get it through the British parliament, it also has to clear multiple hurdles (lower house, upper house, presidential veto etc) in 26 independent countries.
- UK and EU agree a trade deal faster than all envisage, so the transition ends in December 2020.
I think the scenario had to be *plausible*? They don't just have to negotiate the trade deal and get it through the British parliament, it also has to clear multiple hurdles (lower house, upper house, presidential veto etc) in 26 independent countries.
If Johnson concedes on everything except a figleaf then they'll surely all ratify it as quickly as possible.
- UK and EU agree a trade deal faster than all envisage, so the transition ends in December 2020.
I think the scenario had to be *plausible*? They don't just have to negotiate the trade deal and get it through the British parliament, it also has to clear multiple hurdles (lower house, upper house, presidential veto etc) in 26 independent countries.
If Johnson concedes on everything except a figleaf then they'll surely all ratify it as quickly as possible.
France, Ireland, Germany, sure. All 26 countries? All politics is local, who knows what issues they're going to be busy with in Latvia or wherever.
The Starmer video seems like calculated shit-posting to me.
The Tories have calculated (cynically) that the doctoring at the end is mild enough and close enough to the truth that they'll get away with it, whilst the controversy will triple its shares and views - ably assisted by the other side.
Kentucky governor race looks to be going Blue. Bevin (R) taking big hits in the coal mining areas which broke heavily for Trump in 2016.
Bad sign for Trump.
The Democratic candidate is a centrist Blue dog Democrat though, more like Biden than Warren or Sanders
Sure, but it's Kentucky.
He is also son of a previous governor of the state.
While Biden might win the state for the Democrats for the first time since Bill Clinton, Warren certainly would not
Neither would win the state. But it shows coal mining areas are no longer hardcore for Trump. Lower turnout in that group could well hand Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina to the Democrats.
The Twitterati are saying a Democratic Governor can restore thousands of Kentuckians to the register. That could be dangerous to Mitch McConnell, who is up for election next year as the least popular Senator in America.
Bevin certainly seems to be a complete idiot, who has picked fights with just about everyone.
He tried to mess with people's ObamaCare. Nobody else is dumb enough to try to mess with people's ObamaCare, except for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
Bevin certainly seems to be a complete idiot, who has picked fights with just about everyone.
He tried to mess with people's ObamaCare. Nobody else is dumb enough to try to mess with people's ObamaCare, except for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
He tried to take away healthcare, not provide more of it.
Bevin certainly seems to be a complete idiot, who has picked fights with just about everyone.
He tried to mess with people's ObamaCare. Nobody else is dumb enough to try to mess with people's ObamaCare, except for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
He tried to take away healthcare, not provide more of it.
Kentucky governor race looks to be going Blue. Bevin (R) taking big hits in the coal mining areas which broke heavily for Trump in 2016.
Bad sign for Trump.
The Democratic candidate is a centrist Blue dog Democrat though, more like Biden than Warren or Sanders
Sure, but it's Kentucky.
He is also son of a previous governor of the state.
While Biden might win the state for the Democrats for the first time since Bill Clinton, Warren certainly would not
Neither would win the state. But it shows coal mining areas are no longer hardcore for Trump. Lower turnout in that group could well hand Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina to the Democrats.
Personally, I think Ohio is out of reach for the Dems. But Trump won Pennyslvania by the slimmest of margins, and this does not auger well for him there. Likewise, he ran Clinton close in Virginia, and likely won't this time around.
Looking at the battleground states, I think:
Ohio: comfortable Republican hold Florida: comfortable Republican hold N Carolina: R hold Iowa: very narrow R hold Michigan: narrow D win Pennsylvania: narroe D win Arizona: Democrats win Wisconsin: Democrats win
Which gives the Dems 289 and the White House. If I'm wrong (and I probably am), I suspect it'll be because the Democrats to better than that. (Or because they elect Warren and do worse.)
Comments
I was only joking.
And Gina Millar is interesting too, I would have thought she was British and not nearly such a wealthy and successful capitalist as she is.
I know HY said earlier the gloves are off this time, not letting Corbyn Labour get away with it a second time, but are there examples when negative campaigning won hearts and minds rather than losing them, Trump 2016 even was a lot of “make America great again, drain swamp, deal maker, best jobs president ever” positivity.
Even the big launch starting in the Borisgraph is personal on corbyn in bizarre Stalin comparisons. The class war provocation seems to be Tory driven so far, is that the master plan for capturing Labour areas?
Its a combination of being mouthshites, thinking that they're cleverer than they are and having no self control.
...seems plausible, no? Sadly not actually *likely*...
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/10279586/working-class-income-tax-cuts/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfQmg8VSj0E
Election 12 Dec, Fri 13 still being counted, so fasted route is Boris has majority and goes to see Queen. Queens speech Mon 16 followed by 5 days of debate. Parliament goes into recess presumably on Thur 19 Dec before debating queens speech can complete.
So is this a no risk 19% return over 5.2 weeks or could Boris plan a Christmas present for brexiteers of getting meaningful vote passed before Queens speech debate has completed?
Corbyn No Confidence
Swinson puts together a deal accepting some of labour policies on brexit and a few other areas for a LD/Lab/SNP/[PC/...] coalition, extension for referendum which has option to remain, and remain wins.
Oh err right, you said plausible.
- Boris wins majority on 12th December;
- Passes his Brexit deal through HoC unamended by Christmas, so that Brexit happens and happens smoothly, with the UK moving into the transition period with zero impact on economy, boosting sterling and consumer confidence in 2020;
- UK and EU agree a trade deal faster than all envisage, so the transition ends in December 2020.
- UK commences 2021 a fully independent trading nation with most citizens able to get by without having to see Brexit on the news (for weeks at a time) or being molested by more referendums or elections until the GE in 2024.
Doesn't seem to bode well for Trump, if he lasts to November 2020.
Well maybe that is more plausible than it working out well.
Disruption to services risks festive chaos amid long-running dispute"
https://www.ft.com/content/cd60874c-fff4-11e9-b7bc-f3fa4e77dd47
They should be OK. But JRM should be confined to his constituency for the next 5 weeks.
While Biden might win the state for the Democrats for the first time since Bill Clinton, Warren certainly would not
The Tories have calculated (cynically) that the doctoring at the end is mild enough and close enough to the truth that they'll get away with it, whilst the controversy will triple its shares and views - ably assisted by the other side.
Expect more of this.
The massive flips in the rural areas are a bad sign for Trump, though.
(I doubt Biden would either. Although I admit he probably would have the best shot of taking it.)
https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1191842447485292544?s=20
Looking at the battleground states, I think:
Ohio: comfortable Republican hold
Florida: comfortable Republican hold
N Carolina: R hold
Iowa: very narrow R hold
Michigan: narrow D win
Pennsylvania: narroe D win
Arizona: Democrats win
Wisconsin: Democrats win
Which gives the Dems 289 and the White House. If I'm wrong (and I probably am), I suspect it'll be because the Democrats to better than that. (Or because they elect Warren and do worse.)