I suppose the interesting issue in terms of Farage’s perfectly reasonable take on the deal - which some remainers might share from a different angle - is what happens if Boris gets his majority and we ‘leave’ on New Year’s Eve or the end of January.
We will have ‘left’ the EU - and absolutely nothing will have changed beyond us losing our voting rights and MEPs. Still subject to existing and new EU rules, still with freedom of movement, still in the SM and CU, still subject to ECJ rulings.
And in practice nothing meaningful changes we presume until we agree the trade deal subject to the EU and Barnier’s terms and ratification by 27 member states and of course the Flemish parliament - and our transition to really leaving ends. The EU will be in no hurry for us to truly leave!
Maybe people will be a bit surprised when nothing has actually changed at all - beyond our new vassal status - and might not until 2023 or beyond.
Brexit will be done but perhaps many leave voters won’t be happy that nothing has changed and might not for years?
The thing is the voters give Boris a pass for things the uncharismatic May would never get away with.
A bit like Trump in that regard.
Yes. This is very striking. Net result is a debasement of politics. I desperately hope this trend is reversed soon. It's why for me WH2020 is a more important election than this one - important though this one undoubtedly is.
I suppose the interesting issue in terms of Farage’s perfectly reasonable take on the deal is what happens if Boris gets his majority and we leave on New Year’s Eve or the end of January.
We will have ‘left’ the EU - and absolutely nothing will have changed beyond us losing our voting rights and MEPs. Still subject to existing and new EU rules, still with freedom of movement, still in the SM and CU, still subject to ECJ rulings.
And in practice nothing meaningful changes we presume until we agree the trade deal subject to the EU and Barnier’s terms and ratification by 27 member states and of course the Flemish parliament - and our transition to really leaving ends. The EU will be in no hurry for us to truly leave!
Maybe people will be a bit surprised when nothing has actually changed at all - beyond our new vassal status - and might not until 2023 or beyond.
Brexit will be done but perhaps many leave voters won’t be happy that nothing has changed and might not for years?
All that is true. The problem is that other leave voters wouldnt be happy with no deal and the economy crashing, losing their jobs, higher taxes, less spending either. And unicorn Brexit doesnt exist. So whatever the country chooses to do, a decent chunk of leave voters will be unhappy because they have been promised something undeliverable.
I suppose the interesting issue in terms of Farage’s perfectly reasonable take on the deal - which some remainers might share from a different angle - is what happens if Boris gets his majority and we ‘leave’ on New Year’s Eve or the end of January.
We will have ‘left’ the EU - and absolutely nothing will have changed beyond us losing our voting rights and MEPs. Still subject to existing and new EU rules, still with freedom of movement, still in the SM and CU, still subject to ECJ rulings.
And in practice nothing meaningful changes we presume until we agree the trade deal subject to the EU and Barnier’s terms and ratification by 27 member states and of course the Flemish parliament - and our transition to really leaving ends. The EU will be in no hurry for us to truly leave!
Maybe people will be a bit surprised when nothing has actually changed at all - beyond our new vassal status - and might not until 2023 or beyond.
Brexit will be done but perhaps many leave voters won’t be happy that nothing has changed and might not for years?
Not necessarily. It’s been so long since we have had one that we’ve forgotten the extent to which a full single party majority Government can control the agenda.
I think you’d see a lot of stuff about trade deals with other countries (countries of modest size but good optics) and a raft of legislation designed to kick in after transition but announced way before.
I think that whichever one of the main two parties has the next strong majority Government is going to get a popularity surge for just making politics seem to go away. “Don’t worry chaps, no need to focus on this, we’re in charge”.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Those who doubt the Swinsongasm may want to take a look at Cornwall North with Skybet.
The Tories have a 14% majority (and obtained 50% of the vote at GE2017) yet strangely both they and the Lib Dems are priced at 5/6.
I’ve backed the Tories. Obvs.
Seems like fantastic advice to me. Backing constituency holds in the face of apparent "gasms" has provided 95% of my lifetime political betting success.
I met the LibDem candidate at the LD animal welfare conference fringe. He told the meeting that he wasn't against the badger cull, which went down extremely badly there but I guess does him credit for honesty and probably will be the preferred stance among most farmers.
I've not been around for a couple of years, Nick. Have you switched from Labour to Liberal?
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Yes that will help raise the tone of politics! I find Johnson as PM extremely unpalatable, your suggestion is even more unpalatable.
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
Does anyone have some better ideas?
If I vote LibDem, I get Camberwick Green.
If I vote Plaid Cymru, I get Pre-Roman Britain.
Camberwick Green is a good suggestion for the Orange Book Liberals.
Lots of entreperneurial flour milling, fishmongering and baking, yet universal free-at-point-of-use healthcare provided by Dr Mopp (albeit apparently working outside a state provided health system).
Trumpton, with it's effective public services, especially fire fighting, and Chigley, with it's excellent rail services would be more Beveridge Group.
Camberwick Green is perfect LibDem territory, though there is a touch of the Brexit Party about Pippin Fort.
There is substantial overmanning in the Trumpton Fire Services. It is more Corbynite, 70s Labour territory.
I recently watched the first episode of Trumpton on Youtube and was surprised how much educational content was packed in, especially the detailed explanation of printing. www.youtube.com/watch?v=veIQe5xPqmc
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
It would be very annoying but which anti-abortion group do you have in mind?
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Yes that will help raise the tone of politics! I find Johnson as PM extremely unpalatable, your suggestion is even more unpalatable.
Don't bother with that, get Eddie Mair to interview him again. In 2013 Johnson was said to be a 'nasty piece of work'.
Do all voters know that he's a c***? Not my word for him but Alan Duncan's.
If it's going through standards can we expect a report in 3 years just before a new GE like Vaz?
If it occurred in public surely there are witnesses.
If it occurred in private then it’s he said he said - it’s not as if there will be physical or DNA evidence.
Still I do sympathise with Scottish male Labour MPs feeling bullied and intimidated - it used to be members of their ranks doing that in the not too distant past!
The thing is the voters give Boris a pass for things the uncharismatic May would never get away with.
A bit like Trump in that regard.
Yes. This is very striking. Net result is a debasement of politics. I desperately hope this trend is reversed soon. It's why for me WH2020 is a more important election than this one - important though this one undoubtedly is.
I call it the "Terry Venables" effect. Everybody loved Terry even though they knew he was decidedly dodgy
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
Does anyone have some better ideas?
If I vote LibDem, I get Camberwick Green.
If I vote Plaid Cymru, I get Pre-Roman Britain.
Camberwick Green is a good suggestion for the Orange Book Liberals.
Lots of entreperneurial flour milling, fishmongering and baking, yet universal free-at-point-of-use healthcare provided by Dr Mopp (albeit apparently working outside a state provided health system).
Trumpton, with it's effective public services, especially fire fighting, and Chigley, with it's excellent rail services would be more Beveridge Group.
Camberwick Green is perfect LibDem territory, though there is a touch of the Brexit Party about Pippin Fort.
There is substantial overmanning in the Trumpton Fire Services. It is more Corbynite, 70s Labour territory.
I recently watched the first episode of Trumpton on Youtube and was surprised how much educational content was packed in, especially the detailed explanation of printing. www.youtube.com/watch?v=veIQe5xPqmc
Windy Miller though is the recipient of the environmental vote these days.
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Yes that will help raise the tone of politics! I find Johnson as PM extremely unpalatable, your suggestion is even more unpalatable.
Not very different to what happened to LBJ in the 1960s in protest about the bombing in Vietnam - 'How many kids have you killed today?'. I suggest it would serve the public interest to remind the electorate at large how malign and disreputable human being Johnson is. I suspect it would strike a chord if vigorously pursued. Alas those who hold the strongest views on the issue tend to be socially conservative themselves. He won't do it, but I actually believe it would be an effective line for Corbyn to bring up in the Debate - if he can find a way of doing so.
Since the Russians are pro-Brexit and therefore pro-Tory, I'd imagine quite a lot. For the sake of hard-of-thinking Mail columnists, that nice Mr Putin wants to break up Europe, Britain and the West generally. It is not about spreading international socialism any more. It's about undermining Russia's perceived enemies, viz every country which is not Russia.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
If Tories are going to criticise Labour people over their Russian links they had better first make sure they have clean hands.
They don’t.
I leave it to others to judge whether it it is worse to be close to the Russians and their allies because of ideological affinity or because you have been seduced by money.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
I would not be surprised to see Farage use "Boris surrender treaty" regularly.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
SNIP
You are not right in the head but correct that Tories will win. However your piffle on Scottish government being imprisoned is just the ravings of a lunatic. Even if the Tories managed to corrupt UK law to such an unbelievable level, International law would trump it. I wonder why I am even responding to the rantings of a lunatic.
But it happened in Spain, when the exasperated leaders took decision to take it a step further than SNP have yet chosen and what international law are you pointing to riding to their rescue.
My head can intellectually debate you on this, starting with this thoughtful question, how do you see Scotland And Catalan winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
The UK and Spain are two very different countries. Scottish secession is still a very real possibility and, moreover, there's little prospect of Scotland attempting a UDI which would fail to get past its own courts, and even less of a future UK Government attempting to hold Scotland by force.
*IF* there happens to be a Conservative victory next month then pleas from Bute House for a second independence referendum will fall on deaf ears: the Tories are, after all, a Unionist party, and Johnson may well be reliant on his surviving Scottish MPs for his majority. However, an outright victory for the pro-independence camp at Holyrood in 2021 (whether by the SNP alone, or if there's a combined SNP-Green majority) would probably reverse that position.
The flame of Unionism is guttering in England, and the SNP are Labour's main potential coalition partner at Westminster. One should not, therefore, be surprised if a great many English Tories view the dissolution of the Union with far greater equanimity than their predecessors would've done.
I like the way you wrote the answer, and I thank you for it.
You didn’t answer the question though, no one, not malky or anyone, how do you see Scotland winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
Two possible ways, via courts to the UN, or just dissolve the union treaty, if we entered a treaty we can leave it.
Still some incredibly close seats there. Tories miss Edgbaston and two Coventry seats by 1% for example. If there is a even a marginally greater swing to the Tories in the Midlands, then I reckon they will do very well there.
They will do very well in the west Midlands anyway.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
The pro-EU side needs better slogans. There've been
Bollocks to Brexit Brexit is for life not just for Xmas Have you been in a car crash that wasn't your fault? Yes, Brexit
Get Brexit Gone currently seems about the best riposte to the Johnson's waffle.
My own preference would be "Stop Shovelling Brexshit".
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Yes that will help raise the tone of politics! I find Johnson as PM extremely unpalatable, your suggestion is even more unpalatable.
Not very different to what happened to LBJ in the 1960s in protest about the bombing in Vietnam - 'How many kids have you killed today?'. I suggest it would serve the public interest to remind the electorate at large how malign and disreputable human being Johnson is. I suspect it would strike a chord if vigorously pursued. Alas those who hold the strongest views on the issue tend to be socially conservative themselves.
Justin, God doesn't exist and even if he did, he wouldn't hate you for being gay. Or at least not as much as you hate yourself. Now just stop it.
Still some incredibly close seats there. Tories miss Edgbaston and two Coventry seats by 1% for example. If there is a even a marginally greater swing to the Tories in the Midlands, then I reckon they will do very well there.
They will do very well in the west Midlands anyway.
I don't think the Tories will win Edgbaston whatever happens. It's swinging away from them due to the university influence.
If it's going through standards can we expect a report in 3 years just before a new GE like Vaz?
If it occurred in public surely there are witnesses.
If it occurred in private then it’s he said he said - it’s not as if there will be physical or DNA evidence.
Still I do sympathise with Scottish male Labour MPs feeling bullied and intimidated - it used to be members of their ranks doing that in the not too distant past!
Happened in crowded commons bar, late at night
Wasn’t that also the case the alleged February incident earlier this year where no charges were brought or formal complaints made ?
You might think Sweeney would have moved out of the way in the supposed later incident based on his reputation if he saw Thomson walking towards him approaching him with his hands cupped?
I am surprised they don’t have have CCTV - (capturing cupping of tes*****es video) in the Commons bars?
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Yes that will help raise the tone of politics! I find Johnson as PM extremely unpalatable, your suggestion is even more unpalatable.
Not very different to what happened to LBJ in the 1960s in protest about the bombing in Vietnam - 'How many kids have you killed today?'. I suggest it would serve the public interest to remind the electorate at large how malign and disreputable human being Johnson is. I suspect it would strike a chord if vigorously pursued. Alas those who hold the strongest views on the issue tend to be socially conservative themselves.
Justin, God doesn't exist and even if he did, he wouldn't hate you for being gay. Or at least not as much as you hate yourself. Now just stop it.
I am not gay - how dare you suggest that! Perhaps you are a paedophile.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
His deal has us leave the EU. That is Brexit.
Europhiles for BoJo in full voice today.
Imbeciles that can't tell the difference between normative and descriptive statements in full voice today. For the hundredth time, I think Boris is a lazy fool that will make a bad Prime Minister. Why are you so weirdly obsessed with me?
Morning all and just a quick straw in the wind. On the Politics Scotland programme which followed Andrew Marr, several commentators cautioned against assuming the Scottish Tories will lose lots of seats. It was pointed out 38% of Scots voted for Brexit and a disproportionate number of them live in the 13 Tory held seats, just as I pointed out the other day on here.
It will be interesting in Stirling where the SNP has parachuted in its No 1 MEP Alyn Smith. Surely if it was confident of stopping Brexit, it wouldn't be trying to find a new job for the soon to be ex MEP!! It could turn out to be one of those "low hanging fruit" seats that remains low hanging!
More ill informed comment. The SNP are well aware they cannot stop Brexit given the numbers in England ( Scotland never decides ). They are just making sure their top MEP's have jobs next year.
My current prediction is the Tories to lose Stirling, Angus and Ochil to the SNP and hold their other seats. SNP to take all Labour seats apart from Edinburgh South.
If it's going through standards can we expect a report in 3 years just before a new GE like Vaz?
If it occurred in public surely there are witnesses.
If it occurred in private then it’s he said he said - it’s not as if there will be physical or DNA evidence.
Still I do sympathise with Scottish male Labour MPs feeling bullied and intimidated - it used to be members of their ranks doing that in the not too distant past!
Happened in crowded commons bar, late at night
Wasn’t that also the case the alleged February incident earlier this year where no charges were brought or formal complaints made ?
You might think Sweeney would have moved out of the way in the supposed later incident based on his reputation if he saw Thomson walking towards him approaching him with his hands cupped?
I am surprised they don’t have have CCTV - (capturing cupping of tes*****es video) in the Commons bars?
I also gather Sweeney is an ex shipbuilder.
I am assuming it is the same incident , only ever heard of one. Seems to be taking parliament some time to resolve it. Given at time their were many witnesses it should be easily cleared up. If it was rubbish you would expect Thomson to sue Sweeney or Daily Mail but given he reported himself I doubt it will happen.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
I call it the "Terry Venables" effect. Everybody loved Terry even though they knew he was decidedly dodgy
Hadn't thought of that. But yes. At least with the likes of El Tel and Boris there IS the charm. Donald Trump, not so much. All is dark and seedy there. He gets a pass because people recognize their own baser instincts in him and it validates them. This is why if I come across someone who actually supports Trump, I write them off as being a bottom drawer person themselves. I do not do this with people who like Boris Johnson or Terry Venables.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Yes that will help raise the tone of politics! I find Johnson as PM extremely unpalatable, your suggestion is even more unpalatable.
Not very different to what happened to LBJ in the 1960s in protest about the bombing in Vietnam - 'How many kids have you killed today?'. I suggest it would serve the public interest to remind the electorate at large how malign and disreputable human being Johnson is. I suspect it would strike a chord if vigorously pursued. Alas those who hold the strongest views on the issue tend to be socially conservative themselves.
Justin, God doesn't exist and even if he did, he wouldn't hate you for being gay. Or at least not as much as you hate yourself. Now just stop it.
I am not gay - how dare you suggest that! Perhaps you are a paedophile.
If Tories are going to criticise Labour people over their Russian links they had better first make sure they have clean hands.
They don’t.
I leave it to others to judge whether it it is worse to be close to the Russians and their allies because of ideological affinity or because you have been seduced by money.
In fairness, in the case of Milne at least it’s both.
My current prediction is the Tories to lose Stirling, Angus and Ochil to the SNP and hold their other seats. SNP to take all Labour seats apart from Edinburgh South.
I am trying to find time to examine Ross Skye and Lochaber and West Aberdeenshire and Kilardine.
As you are well aware my hunch is that LD switchers makes WAK surprisingly vulnerable.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
His deal has us leave the EU. That is Brexit.
Europhiles for BoJo in full voice today.
Imbeciles that can't tell the difference between normative and descriptive statements in full voice today. For the hundredth time, I think Boris is a lazy fool that will make a bad Prime Minister. Why are you so weirdly obsessed with me?
Your statements are not descriptive. You have made it clear that you think Jeremy Corbyn is so much worse a prospect for Prime Minister that Jo Swindon can’t be voted for if she doesn’t rule out confidence and supply of him. But despite you occasionally remembering to claim to disapprove of Boris Johnson, you evidently don’t feel the same way about him. And you consistently defend the Conservative Brexit position against all challenges, while claiming to be a Europhile.
You would get far more respect if you stopped being a fake and expressed your obviously-held beliefs honestly.
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
His deal has us leave the EU. That is Brexit.
It prolongs the agony. We'll be in transition for years with periodic cliff edges and no deal scares. That isn't getting Brexit done except in a narrow technical sense. We'll still be paying the EU, subject to its laws, with no say in the room where it happens.
My current prediction is the Tories to lose Stirling, Angus and Ochil to the SNP and hold their other seats. SNP to take all Labour seats apart from Edinburgh South.
The Tories would be cock a hoop if they managed that, regardless of what happened elsewhere.
Seems to be a very clear pattern of Labour and Tories squeezing LD and TBP in the latest polls.
The LDs have gone in hard and had reasonable amounts of attention I think - if that squeeze becomes a trend I'm not sure what else they can do to halt it?
Seems to be a very clear pattern of Labour and Tories squeezing LD and TBP in the latest polls.
True and I've just said as much in reply to Big_G_NorthWales. However, maybe the LibDems and TBP will get more coverage once the campaign officially starts.
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
If you think Farage became a national figure thanks to having a strong position, you may not have been paying attention.
Those who doubt the Swinsongasm may want to take a look at Cornwall North with Skybet.
The Tories have a 14% majority (and obtained 50% of the vote at GE2017) yet strangely both they and the Lib Dems are priced at 5/6.
I’ve backed the Tories. Obvs.
Casino - Thanks for the heads-up on the prospects of the Tories winning Cornwall North (or North Cornwall as SkyBet insist on calling it ... hence my difficulty in finding their market). Any how, I eventually followed you in at odds of 5/6.
Does anyone have a clear view of the Tories' chances of winning Derby North given the marginal nature of this seat and the Labour incumbent MP's little local difficulties ... well not exactly local actually?
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
My current prediction is the Tories to lose Stirling, Angus and Ochil to the SNP and hold their other seats. SNP to take all Labour seats apart from Edinburgh South.
The Tories would be cock a hoop if they managed that, regardless of what happened elsewhere.
Seems to be a very clear pattern of Labour and Tories squeezing LD and TBP in the latest polls.
The LDs have gone in hard and had reasonable amounts of attention I think - if that squeeze becomes a trend I'm not sure what else they can do to halt it?
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
That would be really counter productive.
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
His deal has us leave the EU. That is Brexit.
It prolongs the agony. We'll be in transition for years with periodic cliff edges and no deal scares. That isn't getting Brexit done except in a narrow technical sense. We'll still be paying the EU, subject to its laws, with no say in the room where it happens.
I don't think remainers can have it both ways in having the exit date be this epochal line that is crossed, whilst also saying it is not a big deal as not much will change for years. It's not untrue, but it works better coming from Farage. Boris is clearly implying a lot more resolution from him getting his deal through than will be the case, no harm in pointing that out, but complaining about his deal from a perspective a leaver would dislike - still paying the EU etc - should probably be left to other leavers.
My current prediction is the Tories to lose Stirling, Angus and Ochil to the SNP and hold their other seats. SNP to take all Labour seats apart from Edinburgh South.
The Tories would be cock a hoop if they managed that, regardless of what happened elsewhere.
Seems to be a very clear pattern of Labour and Tories squeezing LD and TBP in the latest polls.
The LDs have gone in hard and had reasonable amounts of attention I think - if that squeeze becomes a trend I'm not sure what else they can do to halt it?
Attention may not be a net positive for them
All attention is a net positive when you’re trawling for votes.
Still some incredibly close seats there. Tories miss Edgbaston and two Coventry seats by 1% for example. If there is a even a marginally greater swing to the Tories in the Midlands, then I reckon they will do very well there.
They will do very well in the west Midlands anyway.
I don't think the Tories will win Edgbaston whatever happens. It's swinging away from them due to the university influence.
Not in Birmingham proper.
But in the coalfields and the black country tories will gain quite a few seats, many for the first time. Even if the lead narrows to 8%
I've not been around for a couple of years, Nick. Have you switched from Labour to Liberal?
No, but in my day job (I'm head of the UK arm of an animal welfare organisation) I speak at the fringe events of all the main party conferences. We co-sponsored Tory, LibDem and Labour events this year, and would consider doing others if asked - in the past I've had stands at the DUP, UKIP and Sinn Fein.
Generally both Tories and Labour are really trying hard on animal welfare this year - their proposals are both real steps forward. For some reason it's been almost a vacuum for the LibDems, though they've recently recreated an animal welfare group run by Sonul of World Animal Protection, and with luck that will change things there. Lots of SNP grass roots members and MSPs are supportive, though Scottish Ministers so far digging in on the issue of live exports.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
Whats wrong with that? He comes over well and humorous
It begs everyone else to answer the question for him.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one? Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
I think everyone knows Boris is a serial philanderer already
I wonder how disruptive to his campaign it would be if opponents began pursuing him with placards saying 'How many abortions have you been responsible for, Boris?'' and 'How many babies have had to die because of you'?
Yes that will help raise the tone of politics! I find Johnson as PM extremely unpalatable, your suggestion is even more unpalatable.
Not very different to what happened to LBJ in the 1960s in protest about the bombing in Vietnam - 'How many kids have you killed today?'. I suggest it would serve the public interest to remind the electorate at large how malign and disreputable human being Johnson is. I suspect it would strike a chord if vigorously pursued. Alas those who hold the strongest views on the issue tend to be socially conservative themselves.
Justin, God doesn't exist and even if he did, he wouldn't hate you for being gay. Or at least not as much as you hate yourself. Now just stop it.
I am not gay - how dare you suggest that! Perhaps you are a paedophile.
There is nothing wrong with being gay.
I am not suggesting there is , but does not happen to be true of me. I can reasonably see his comment as defamatory .
If Tories in Ross, Skye & Lochaber decide to hold their nose and vote LD to get rid of the SNP, it's possible Blackford could lose his seat.
Why would the second place vote for the third place to unseat the incumbent? If it was to happen it would be the most sensational set of swings over the last 3 elections
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
I know I am laying myself open to accusations of being a Boris disciple (which I am not) but the piece with Sophy Ridge and Boris about the 'worst thing he has done in his life' illustrates why he gets away with it. He has charisma in spades and Sophy's reaction confirmed it. Indeed my wife was amused with the way he spoke to her and thought it was something many would see as Boris being Boris
Seems to be a very clear pattern of Labour and Tories squeezing LD and TBP in the latest polls.
True and I've just said as much in reply to Big_G_NorthWales. However, maybe the LibDems and TBP will get more coverage once the campaign officially starts.
The two outfits who have gone all in on this election being all about Brexit. Tories and Labour (quite bizarrely) are holding the moderate positions.
Even with a disappointing 12-14%, though, the LibDems will still be doubling the vote. There's still money to be made on these switchers, but from whom will they switch? I'm still banking on female tories and a few labour remainers (I'm starting to think that the latter group will stay truer to Labour thank I thought 2 weeks ago)
I think it may be a clever decision by Farage not to stand because it means opponents of his party don't quite know where to focus their "anti-activity" as it might be called. Also there's always the chance he might suddenly appear on the ballot paper in an unexpected constituency by presenting nomination papers at 3:55pm on 14th November, which keeps people guessing.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
It uses the latest Beta version that takes into account all sort of factors (although not yet the specific candidates standing in each constituency) and shows a Tory majority of 66. If anyone has a PC and wants to try doing the forecast themselves with different poll figures / assumptions etc. then they can use the link on the site to request a copy.
If Tories are going to criticise Labour people over their Russian links they had better first make sure they have clean hands.
They don’t.
I leave it to others to judge whether it it is worse to be close to the Russians and their allies because of ideological affinity or because you have been seduced by money.
In fairness, in the case of Milne at least it’s both.
Milne is not in government, for now. Thank God. Others are.
If Tories in Ross, Skye & Lochaber decide to hold their nose and vote LD to get rid of the SNP, it's possible Blackford could lose his seat.
Why would the second place vote for the third place to unseat the incumbent? If it was to happen it would be the most sensational set of swings over the last 3 elections
2010 LibDem 52.6 Con 12.2
2015 LibDem 35.9 Con 6.2
2017 LibDem 20.9 Con 24.8
It would be interesting a bit closer to the election to see a constituency poll for this one. My answer would be that there are probably a number of Conservatives and SNP who are willing to vote Liberal Democrat, but very few Liberal Democrats and still fewer SNP who would be willing to vote Conservative. Therefore the Tories are at their ceiling while the Liberal Democrats - who after all held the seat just five years ago - are not.
But for that to happen it has to become clear that the LibDems are the main challengers again so they can rally a unionist vote behind them.
If Tories are going to criticise Labour people over their Russian links they had better first make sure they have clean hands.
They don’t.
I leave it to others to judge whether it it is worse to be close to the Russians and their allies because of ideological affinity or because you have been seduced by money.
In fairness, in the case of Milne at least it’s both.
Milne is not in government, for now. Thank God. Others are.
No, but the original comment was about how his links to Russia neutered Labour attacks on the issue.
So in a sense Hodges was actually agreeing with you. He was saying that because Labour do not have clean hands on this they look rather hypocritical tweeting their outrage about Cummings et al. Which they do.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
unfortunately not a sole alive would believe him.
He would be floundering for credibility.
No plaice to hide.
Eel find a way to wriggle out of it though.
I Cod not comment on that.
That attempt at a pun was pure hoki.
Oh for heavan's hake!
I don’t think that worked. Completely the wrong line to take.
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
If you think Farage became a national figure thanks to having a strong position, you may not have been paying attention.
Indeed. The inflamed prostates of the Daily Mail readership only believe the worst.
Go for it Nigel! Only you can decimate the Tories.
You will not win, but if you try hard enough, Boris will not win either.
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
If you think Farage became a national figure thanks to having a strong position, you may not have been paying attention.
Indeed. The inflamed prostates of the Daily Mail readership only believe the worst.
Go for it Nigel! Only you can decimate the Tories.
You will not win, but if you try hard enough, Boris will not win either.
but he doesn't want Boris to lose.. he wants Brexit..
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
There's quite a lot of evidence that people base their opinions on what people they trust say, rather than on the reality (the biggest recent example is the way in which hostility to Russia from Republican voters has evaporated since their guy, Trump, said such nice things about the place).
So this comes down to a simple battle of trust and credibility between Farage and his eclectic followers, and Johnson and the Conservative Party. I'm not one to judge on this, as I wouldn't trust the time of day from either, but it doesn't have anything to do with facts.
If I vote tory, I get Singapore. If I vote Labour, I get Venezuela. If I vote SNP I get somewhere nordic, perhaps Norway. If I vote Sinn Fein, I get the ROI. If I vote DUP, I get somewhere a little backward and puritanical - perhaps 17th Century Massachusetts. If I vote BXP, I get somehwhere quite English and in splendid isolation - maybe 1950s New Zealand. If I vote Green, I get somewhere less industrialised - Papua New Guinea would be good.
I think the Liberals are missing a trick - thus far I have failed to work out what their national panacea is. Perhaps the Netherlands?
Does anyone have some better ideas?
If I vote LibDem, I get Camberwick Green.
If I vote Plaid Cymru, I get Pre-Roman Britain.
Camberwick Green is a good suggestion for the Orange Book Liberals.
Lots of entreperneurial flour milling, fishmongering and baking, yet universal free-at-point-of-use healthcare provided by Dr Mopp (albeit apparently working outside a state provided health system).
Trumpton, with it's effective public services, especially fire fighting, and Chigley, with it's excellent rail services would be more Beveridge Group.
Camberwick Green is perfect LibDem territory, though there is a touch of the Brexit Party about Pippin Fort.
There is substantial overmanning in the Trumpton Fire Services. It is more Corbynite, 70s Labour territory.
I recently watched the first episode of Trumpton on Youtube and was surprised how much educational content was packed in, especially the detailed explanation of printing. www.youtube.com/watch?v=veIQe5xPqmc
That is taking having nothing to do to new lengths.
My current prediction is the Tories to lose Stirling, Angus and Ochil to the SNP and hold their other seats. SNP to take all Labour seats apart from Edinburgh South.
Would you like a little wager on them only losing two seats
If Tories in Ross, Skye & Lochaber decide to hold their nose and vote LD to get rid of the SNP, it's possible Blackford could lose his seat.
Why would the second place vote for the third place to unseat the incumbent? If it was to happen it would be the most sensational set of swings over the last 3 elections
2010 LibDem 52.6 Con 12.2
2015 LibDem 35.9 Con 6.2
2017 LibDem 20.9 Con 24.8
It would be interesting a bit closer to the election to see a constituency poll for this one. My answer would be that there are probably a number of Conservatives and SNP who are willing to vote Liberal Democrat, but very few Liberal Democrats and still fewer SNP who would be willing to vote Conservative. Therefore the Tories are at their ceiling while the Liberal Democrats - who after all held the seat just five years ago - are not.
But for that to happen it has to become clear that the LibDems are the main challengers again so they can rally a unionist vote behind them.
Hard to see SNP voting LD's given it is an election on Indyref2
I've not been around for a couple of years, Nick. Have you switched from Labour to Liberal?
No, but in my day job (I'm head of the UK arm of an animal welfare organisation) I speak at the fringe events of all the main party conferences. We co-sponsored Tory, LibDem and Labour events this year, and would consider doing others if asked - in the past I've had stands at the DUP, UKIP and Sinn Fein.
Generally both Tories and Labour are really trying hard on animal welfare this year - their proposals are both real steps forward. For some reason it's been almost a vacuum for the LibDems, though they've recently recreated an animal welfare group run by Sonul of World Animal Protection, and with luck that will change things there. Lots of SNP grass roots members and MSPs are supportive, though Scottish Ministers so far digging in on the issue of live exports.
Good stuff - I was worried you might have collided with the world's angriest lady (with whom you used to tussle) again somewhere in the political middle ground.
I think the public in general are pro sustainable, cruelty free farming, without going all vegan, and I notice that the tories wish to end live animal exports. I'd be surprised if foxhunting has met the focus group test this time either.
I'm very anti brexit but one silver lining I can see might be the ability to control the trade in low welfare pork, intensive poultry farming, and that the rural/farm voting tories would probably be up for that as much as the urbanites. I think there are votes all round for this.
Wouldn't have an opinion on badgers. From my own observations, they appear to cull themselves on roads perfectly well without intervention from firearms. I have never seen a live one.
I know I am laying myself open to accusations of being a Boris disciple (which I am not) but the piece with Sophy Ridge and Boris about the 'worst thing he has done in his life' illustrates why he gets away with it. He has charisma in spades and Sophy's reaction confirmed it. Indeed my wife was amused with the way he spoke to her and thought it was something many would see as Boris being Boris
You have a love hate relationship with Boris. You used to hate him. Now you love him!
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
If you think Farage became a national figure thanks to having a strong position, you may not have been paying attention.
Indeed. The inflamed prostates of the Daily Mail readership only believe the worst.
Go for it Nigel! Only you can decimate the Tories.
You will not win, but if you try hard enough, Boris will not win either.
but he doesn't want Boris to lose.. he wants Brexit..
No he does not. Nigel has a nice little earner whipping up anti-europeanism so he can go to Brussels and complain on a fulltime basis. We need to be in for that to keep working.
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
If you think Farage became a national figure thanks to having a strong position, you may not have been paying attention.
Indeed. The inflamed prostates of the Daily Mail readership only believe the worst.
Go for it Nigel! Only you can decimate the Tories.
You will not win, but if you try hard enough, Boris will not win either.
but he doesn't want Boris to lose.. he wants Brexit..
He doesn't want Boris to win either. A hung parliament with a few TBP MPs would suit him.
If Tories in Ross, Skye & Lochaber decide to hold their nose and vote LD to get rid of the SNP, it's possible Blackford could lose his seat.
Why would the second place vote for the third place to unseat the incumbent? If it was to happen it would be the most sensational set of swings over the last 3 elections
2010 LibDem 52.6 Con 12.2
2015 LibDem 35.9 Con 6.2
2017 LibDem 20.9 Con 24.8
It would be interesting a bit closer to the election to see a constituency poll for this one. My answer would be that there are probably a number of Conservatives and SNP who are willing to vote Liberal Democrat, but very few Liberal Democrats and still fewer SNP who would be willing to vote Conservative. Therefore the Tories are at their ceiling while the Liberal Democrats - who after all held the seat just five years ago - are not.
But for that to happen it has to become clear that the LibDems are the main challengers again so they can rally a unionist vote behind them.
Hard to see SNP voting LD's given it is an election on Indyref2
That’s precisely why they might do so Malcolm. Is every supporter of the SNP also a supporter of independence? Logic would suggest yes. But it is worth remembering that 3% of Brexit Party supporters are Remainers. For the SNP, an established party with a domestic record and a reputation for putting Scottish interests first within the union, it is probably much higher.
The danger for Sturgeon in making this a single issue election is if there is still a majority against independence there is a risk she will get clobbered by it.
The advantage is she then doesn’t have to talk about the exhausted volcanoes aspect of the SNP’s domestic agenda.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
unfortunately not a sole alive would believe him.
He would be floundering for credibility.
No plaice to hide.
Eel find a way to wriggle out of it though.
I Cod not comment on that.
That attempt at a pun was pure hoki.
Oh for heavan's hake!
I don’t think that worked. Completely the wrong line to take.
Maybe I should have tried a chinese fish recipe? They usually wok for me.
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
If you think Farage became a national figure thanks to having a strong position, you may not have been paying attention.
Indeed. The inflamed prostates of the Daily Mail readership only believe the worst.
Go for it Nigel! Only you can decimate the Tories.
You will not win, but if you try hard enough, Boris will not win either.
but he doesn't want Boris to lose.. he wants Brexit..
The weakness of the Farage position is that the only things he can object to is the transition. Boris can point out that the long term position does every Farage has ever wanted from Brexit.
If you think Farage became a national figure thanks to having a strong position, you may not have been paying attention.
Indeed. The inflamed prostates of the Daily Mail readership only believe the worst.
Go for it Nigel! Only you can decimate the Tories.
You will not win, but if you try hard enough, Boris will not win either.
but he doesn't want Boris to lose.. he wants Brexit..
His whole schtick is crying betrayal. Brexit would be terrible for him and for his declining political and burgeoning media career.
Why? Seems a decent, funny answer to that question to me.
It illustrates both his strengths and his weaknesses. He's engaging and personal, and the interviewer responds - a little unprofessionally, she makes it clear that she likes him. On the other hand, it's not remotely Prime Ministerial and you don't come away thinking "This is the man I feel the country will be safe with."
But of course many people don't want someone Prime Ministerial to be Prime Minister. You cannot get more unpresidential than Trump, but he won and still retains a lot of support no matter how unpresidential he acts.
And while Corbyn has more personal dignity and gravitas than Boris, given part of his appeal is how he will be unlike our other PMs, I'm not sure he will get the 'appears Prime Ministerial' cred that he might otherwise get contrasted with Boris.
Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.
“Boris did seem to amuse her with that answer though.‘
You sure? When she does that I feel she is leading the politician on. She has a touch of David Frost about her.
I think she seemed genuinely amused. Doesnt mean she was not also leading the politician on while being so.
The best way for Boris to play it is a sheepish grin and say
"We all know I've done far worse than running through a field of wheat in my back catalogue.... But that was before I took on the very real duties of being Prime Minister. I wouldn't even run with you through a field of wheat now."
unfortunately not a sole alive would believe him.
He would be floundering for credibility.
No plaice to hide.
Eel find a way to wriggle out of it though.
I Cod not comment on that.
That attempt at a pun was pure hoki.
Oh for heavan's hake!
I don’t think that worked. Completely the wrong line to take.
Maybe I should have tried a chinese fish recipe? They usually wok for me.
Could this be an election determined by Brexit views?
At the start of this election campaign, 40% of the public say they are most likely to base their vote on Brexit. https://t.co/vOD6a5riXw
Not reflected in the polls so far.
I think you may have this backwards. The people for whom Brexit is the primary concern already know which party's stance matches theirs and hence are less likely to be "undecided" and so show up in the current polling data. It is the undecideds for whom Brexit policy is not definitive that are up for grabs, and based on some of the cross tabs a lot of them are women who voted Labour last time, care most about the NHS and are not sold on Corbyn. As we get closer to the election the number of undecideds will decline, and I suspect the Tory lead over Labour will decrease.
The only real difference is that Labour intends to pay for its spending programme through a combination of extra borrowing and higher taxes for companies and better-off individuals, and the Conservatives plan to cover higher spending and lower taxes through borrowing.
This is curious in two respects. Firstly, it means that when the two parties have their tax and spending homework marked by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Labour is likely to get the higher marks. Secondly, it means the Tories will have taken the platform on which they fought the 2010 election and turned it on its head.
On Tuesday, the Conservatives will seek to attack Labour’s economic credibility by costing Corbyn’s spending pledges. Given what the Tories themselves are planning, this will be a case of the pot calling the kettle black.
Comments
We will have ‘left’ the EU - and absolutely nothing will have changed beyond us losing our voting rights and MEPs. Still subject to existing and new EU rules, still with freedom of movement, still in the SM and CU, still subject to ECJ rulings.
And in practice nothing meaningful changes we presume until we agree the trade deal subject to the EU and Barnier’s terms and ratification by 27 member states and of course the Flemish parliament - and our transition to really leaving ends. The EU will be in no hurry for us to truly leave!
Maybe people will be a bit surprised when nothing has actually changed at all - beyond our new vassal status - and might not until 2023 or beyond.
Brexit will be done but perhaps many leave voters won’t be happy that nothing has changed and might not for years?
BTW I did the Gainsborough/Brigg/Barnetby rail route and the Sleaford avoider yesterday!
Sleaford avoider done in 1979 - along with the former Spalding - March line on the Newcastle - Yarmouth summer Saturdays holiday train!
I think you’d see a lot of stuff about trade deals with other countries (countries of modest size but good optics) and a raft of legislation designed to kick in after transition but announced way before.
I think that whichever one of the main two parties has the next strong majority Government is going to get a popularity surge for just making politics seem to go away. “Don’t worry chaps, no need to focus on this, we’re in charge”.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=veIQe5xPqmc
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1190967948653010944?s=20
Could this be an election determined by Brexit views?
At the start of this election campaign, 40% of the public say they are most likely to base their vote on Brexit. https://t.co/vOD6a5riXw
More productive is to point out that his deal doesn't get Brexit done. It just prolongs the agony. Another cliff edge next year. Threat of no Deal. More economic uncertainty. Sucks all the oxygen out of more important political initiatives. Adds fuel to the cultural wars.
How about a placard "Johnson's deal prolongs the agony".
Do all voters know that he's a c***? Not my word for him but Alan Duncan's.
Everybody loved Terry even though they knew he was decidedly dodgy
I suggest it would serve the public interest to remind the electorate at large how malign and disreputable human being Johnson is. I suspect it would strike a chord if vigorously pursued. Alas those who hold the strongest views on the issue tend to be socially conservative themselves.
He won't do it, but I actually believe it would be an effective line for Corbyn to bring up in the Debate - if he can find a way of doing so.
Chicken. Chicken. Chicken Chicken Chicken. ROTFL.
Boris Johnson must be thanking his lucky stars (for the umpteenth time).
They don’t.
I leave it to others to judge whether it it is worse to be close to the Russians and their allies because of ideological affinity or because you have been seduced by money.
Bollocks to Brexit
Brexit is for life not just for Xmas
Have you been in a car crash that wasn't your fault? Yes, Brexit
Get Brexit Gone currently seems about the best riposte to the Johnson's waffle.
My own preference would be "Stop Shovelling Brexshit".
You might think Sweeney would have moved out of the way in the supposed later incident based on his reputation if he saw Thomson walking towards him approaching him with his hands cupped?
I am surprised they don’t have have CCTV - (capturing cupping of tes*****es video) in the Commons bars?
I also gather Sweeney is an ex shipbuilder.
They are just making sure their top MEP's have jobs next year.
If it was rubbish you would expect Thomson to sue Sweeney or Daily Mail but given he reported himself I doubt it will happen.
As you are well aware my hunch is that LD switchers makes WAK surprisingly vulnerable.
You would get far more respect if you stopped being a fake and expressed your obviously-held beliefs honestly.
However, maybe the LibDems and TBP will get more coverage once the campaign officially starts.
Does anyone have a clear view of the Tories' chances of winning Derby North given the marginal nature of this seat and the Labour incumbent MP's little local difficulties ... well not exactly local actually?
But in the coalfields and the black country tories will gain quite a few seats, many for the first time. Even if the lead narrows to 8%
For example criticism of 48minTrump speech vs 9 mins for Obama
It would be equally unfair to compare an Obama speech from the Washington Correspondent dinner to a GW Bush tour de force
Generally both Tories and Labour are really trying hard on animal welfare this year - their proposals are both real steps forward. For some reason it's been almost a vacuum for the LibDems, though they've recently recreated an animal welfare group run by Sonul of World Animal Protection, and with luck that will change things there. Lots of SNP grass roots members and MSPs are supportive, though Scottish Ministers so far digging in on the issue of live exports.
2010
LibDem 52.6
Con 12.2
2015
LibDem 35.9
Con 6.2
2017
LibDem 20.9
Con 24.8
And well done the SW - highest turnout of any region of the UK.
Even with a disappointing 12-14%, though, the LibDems will still be doubling the vote. There's still money to be made on these switchers, but from whom will they switch? I'm still banking on female tories and a few labour remainers (I'm starting to think that the latter group will stay truer to Labour thank I thought 2 weeks ago)
UK General Election Forecast November 3rd 2019
It uses the latest Beta version that takes into account all sort of factors (although not yet the specific candidates standing in each constituency) and shows a Tory majority of 66. If anyone has a PC and wants to try doing the forecast themselves with different poll figures / assumptions etc. then they can use the link on the site to request a copy.
Tim
But for that to happen it has to become clear that the LibDems are the main challengers again so they can rally a unionist vote behind them.
(OK, figured out what was wrong and edited it! Sorry for the extra post!)
So in a sense Hodges was actually agreeing with you. He was saying that because Labour do not have clean hands on this they look rather hypocritical tweeting their outrage about Cummings et al. Which they do.
Go for it Nigel! Only you can decimate the Tories.
You will not win, but if you try hard enough, Boris will not win either.
So this comes down to a simple battle of trust and credibility between Farage and his eclectic followers, and Johnson and the Conservative Party. I'm not one to judge on this, as I wouldn't trust the time of day from either, but it doesn't have anything to do with facts.
I think the public in general are pro sustainable, cruelty free farming, without going all vegan, and I notice that the tories wish to end live animal exports. I'd be surprised if foxhunting has met the focus group test this time either.
I'm very anti brexit but one silver lining I can see might be the ability to control the trade in low welfare pork, intensive poultry farming, and that the rural/farm voting tories would probably be up for that as much as the urbanites. I think there are votes all round for this.
Wouldn't have an opinion on badgers. From my own observations, they appear to cull themselves on roads perfectly well without intervention from firearms. I have never seen a live one.
A hung parliament with a few TBP MPs would suit him.
The danger for Sturgeon in making this a single issue election is if there is still a majority against independence there is a risk she will get clobbered by it.
The advantage is she then doesn’t have to talk about the exhausted volcanoes aspect of the SNP’s domestic agenda.
我会得到我的帽子和大衣
It is the undecideds for whom Brexit policy is not definitive that are up for grabs, and based on some of the cross tabs a lot of them are women who voted Labour last time, care most about the NHS and are not sold on Corbyn.
As we get closer to the election the number of undecideds will decline, and I suspect the Tory lead over Labour will decrease.
This is curious in two respects. Firstly, it means that when the two parties have their tax and spending homework marked by the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Labour is likely to get the higher marks. Secondly, it means the Tories will have taken the platform on which they fought the 2010 election and turned it on its head.
On Tuesday, the Conservatives will seek to attack Labour’s economic credibility by costing Corbyn’s spending pledges. Given what the Tories themselves are planning, this will be a case of the pot calling the kettle black.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/nov/03/tory-plan-to-outspend-labour-turns-partys-principle-on-its-head