If LibDems believe in free trade why are they so keen to remain in a customs union?
They're not keen to remain in a customs union. They are determined to stay in the Single Market.
Because - whatever stuff Tory fantasists are smoking - you can't be the world's only free trading significant economy. So you have to start free trade with like-minded partners - and the biggest free trade area in history is the Single Market we're already a member of.
You particularly can't engage in thoughts of free trade with any of the world's most obsessive opponents of the idea: China, India, Russia or the US. Leading Europe to free-er trade with a US under different management from today's protectionists may well be a future role for Britain if it can negotiate Single Market membership outside the EU.
The comment that constituency effects even out may be true in the larger picture. It is patently not the case when considering Con/LD fights. There are hardly any LD seats where any local variation will let in the Conservatives (North Norfolk possibly). The London (and Surrey) local effect is a factor in 10 Conservative seats (and some Labour), with similar issues in other isolated Conservative seats such as Winchester. The constituency effects of Conservative defectors is also a one sided effect. In aggregate probably in excess of 25 Conservative held seats are vulnerable to potential (I do not say definite) local effects, whilst hardly any LD seats are similarly impacted.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
There was hat eating when Tory’s took all those seats in 2015. But Libdems ain’t getting them back with a revoke policy.
An interesting header Nick though not the encouraging one I'd hoped for when I saw your name underneath it.
The question it raises for Labour supporters like myself is why you and others like you didn't tell Corbyn what was obvious; That if he remained leader Labour would lose but if he passed the mantle to someone else the chances were good that we could have a Labour government?
Surely someone with your and his principles would want to put the party's interest before his personal ambition?
I think the national interest is to have a meaningful opposition with positive ideas, and much as I liked most of what we did in 1997-2010, by the end we were embarassingly short of policies (exactly as IMO the other parties are now - the Tories in particular need a spell in opposition to work out what they're for except Brexit). So my first priority was to have a leader with a positive vision - which cut out people like Owen who didn't seem to stand for anything except being not-Corbyn. My second priority was to have someone who would focus on the policies instead of personal mud-slinging - which cut out a whole bunch of people across the spectrum. And seeing repeated polls showing that no other named candidate was going to do better than Corbyn settled the matter.
I'm not convinced we'd be doing splendidly if we were led by, say, David Miliband. Sure, I can see Corbyn's not popular, but I think he'll be a good PM if he makes it, and in the end you have to go with your judgment on these things.
The idea that "the attempts to influence don't influence people" is itself quietly effective meme that has spread through the Brexitverse. As with many other Brexit narratives, it's asserted with total confidence and zero evidence by those who have skin in the game. Shameful gullibility all over the place, including a lot of the people on these boards.
It's fascinating but it bothers me intensely when I see some kind of narrative take hold and sweep across the political terrain like a wildfire. a few weeks ago there was a flurry of posts about the Speakership. Person after person asserting "it should be Hoyle", and nary the slightest reason why. It wasn't people predicting something, it was saying what ought to happen. And never a justification. It was the usual suspects, mostly right-wingers who've been whipped up into a froth about Bercow. And whatever the rights and wrongs of that, I couldn't help wondering what was driving everyone to insist that there was only righteous outcome. I mean, you can be fucking certain that whoever comes next won't really be much like Bercow. So why must it be Hoyle? A mystifying and relatively innocuous meme gripped this place. Where did it come from? Perhaps nowhere, but it's another small piece of evidence that we are social creatures and we take our cues from others. That's how you end up with groupthink and even mobs. Of course we're influenced by others. Of course people respond to perceptions of critical mass. Most people -- you lot included -- are too cowardly to stand apart from a tribe. Advertising and propaganda works because humans are fundamentally gutless wimps. I can think of two people on these boards whom I think are free-thinking and brave. One of them is someone I often agree with, the other is someone I nearly always disagree with and have crossed swords with often. The rest of you are in a fucking daydream.
We love you too , nothing better than a pompous arsehole, unless of course I am one of your two free thinkers and then I salute you.
A key group must be usual Tory voters who do not like Johnson or Brexit. Putting myself in their heads - not so difficult since 2 out of 3 apply - I think I would behave as follows.
Tories with end to benefit freeze and Labour with cash for insulation or some such. Where is the big Lib Dem magic money tree announcement ?
I hope voters view these announcements with the contempt they deserve.
Tories are unfreezing benefits next year and that cuts through to voters instantly. That’s another 10 gains off labour overnight on that one policy.
Labour are going to spend several trillion quid putting loft installation into everyone’s house. What’s the most incredulous emoji? 🌈🦄🍡 unicorns on rainbow farting marshmallows
Labour will get a better result if every single one of them went on holiday till 11 Dec and the party fell silent between now and then.
Jo Swinson. 'I am a candidate to be Prime Minister'
She cannot be serious
It suits the Conservatives (and Labour) to make it a straight fight between the old duopoly but when you have the likes of Johnson and Corbyn you can't blame people for wanting to look elsewhere.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
Well there was an apparent similar incident in February but no one including the police took it further.
Still unless it happened in the last couple of days why wait until now to go to the press about it as you say.
Is there an election on in a potential four way marginal? Labour Tory and SNP have all held the seat since 2010 and the LDs used to poll well there too.
On a more general observation, there do seem to be a remarkable number of gay politicians in Scotland. Are there fewer other outlets for a career in Scottish life if you are gay? Genuinely curious.....
I believe the UK has the gayest parliament in the world, happily, and iirc by proportion of members the SNP the gayest of them all so Holyrood may take the crown for those that are not an independent state .
For the idly curious, this 30-second clip is what I've put on my FB timeline about Broxtowe. I've never done a video to camera without notes or interaction with an interviewer - it's actually scarier than hostile questioning, because with a "Have you stopped beating your wife?" sort of question you have something to grab on to.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
You could not make it up , anywhere else he would have been sacked on the spot and yet the Tories have done nothing, they really are a bunch of scumbags.
Doesn’t he deserve due process, or are we doing trial by Mail on Sunday headlines now?
When you do such things , they were admitted at the time , in your place of employment , do you think you would still be in a job 10 months later. How long does it take parliament to look into the matter. One person who has admitted it and ten or twenty witnesses, one a month and they would have concluded by now. What a joke and one can see you are a Tory by your pathetic attempt at support.
Nigel Farage reveals he is not standing for Parliament in this general election. Selflessness, or an early admission of defeat? #Marr
He thinks hed lose, but the point is to cost the tories victory and he can do that without standing himself. So he's banking on still being an MEP for the next 4 years anyway.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
No brand identity. I 'm not sure why and it's possible one might emerge but it's why their support is all over the place at the moment. It could be the waifs and strays they've picked up but I'm not sure yet.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
Tories with end to benefit freeze and Labour with cash for insulation or some such. Where is the big Lib Dem magic money tree announcement ?
I hope voters view these announcements with the contempt they deserve.
Tories are unfreezing benefits next year and that cuts through to voters instantly. That’s another 10 gains off labour overnight on that one policy.
Labour are going to spend several trillion quid putting loft installation into everyone’s house. What’s the most incredulous emoji? 🌈🦄🍡 unicorns on rainbow farting marshmallows
Labour will get a better result if every single one of them went on holiday till 11 Dec and the party fell silent between now and then.
The Conservatives will leave nothing to chance that money and influence cannot resolve and as a contest it's over. The question now id whether Johnson will win big or very big and the gloating of his supporters on here will be painful and unpleasant for the rest of us.
I think that is a correct reading. It is the size of the Tory majority that is now the only thing at issue.
Johnson really, really wants to win this. And he is completely shameless, so he will promise whatever he has to do to win it. Whatever he has has said before, he will happily gainsay.
Given Corby's grasp on the twenty-first century was always delicate, the election is now taking place in a fictional Universe when financial constraints do not exist. Things exist if politicians will them so.
Probably the only thing that can now limit the Tory majority is appeals to voters to remember what happens when there is a huge Tory majority in the past.
Privatisation of the air supply, babies lightly toasted and served on a bed of lettuce, the invasion of North and West Britain, etc.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
If the FTA has not been agreed by 2024 it will mean we’ve either ended up with a No Deal or we’ll still be in transition. Either way, it means it will all still be about Brexit.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
You evidently know little or nothing of Singapore...
I presume you are one of the money makers that Mysticrose and think it is jolly hockeysticks.
The East End of Glasgow is Shangri-La.
What an arsehole, we are talking about Singapore. Stick your bigoted opinion right where the sun shines. Just for your information the east end has been much improved over recent years. I assume you have no shitholes in England and everything there is wonderful.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
You evidently know little or nothing of Singapore...
I presume you are one of the money makers that Mysticrose and think it is jolly hockeysticks.
The East End of Glasgow is Shangri-La.
What an arsehole, we are talking about Singapore. Stick your bigoted opinion right where the sun shines. Just for your information the east end has been much improved over recent years. I assume you have no shitholes in England and everything there is wonderful.
Jo Swinson. 'I am a candidate to be Prime Minister'
She cannot be serious
Technically any leader of a party which stands in enough seats can claim they are a candidate to be PM. I suppose even if they dont stand in enough seats the claim can technically be true as who knows what a coalition might permit.
Which is not the same as claiming to be serious contender to be PM of course, as she pretends.
Its silly, but the party wont mind over hyping if they make steps in the right direction.
To be honest Malc, it is not about the leader but just 'revoke' is on a par with the 'poll tax' and 'dementia tax' as a self inflicted nonsense policy. I cannot understand for the life of me why they did not row in behind the peoples vote (stupid name) and offer an immediate referendum
You have to bear in mind that the main opponent is Mr ABDPJohnson, a man not best known for his truthfulness or reliability. Currently, he is spouting off the whole time rubbishing policies which were sacred to the Conservatives of old. He would use every trick in the book to get his wicked way.
So the problem for the Lib Dems is that, despite having advocated a confirmatory referendum for the last three years, there is no way that this could have taken place before Johnson blew up the entire economy and the whole social order of the country by lurching out of the EU with no kind of safeguards (the so-called "no deal" exit.
Matters were certainly not helped by the dithering and indecision of the Labour leadership. Or perhaps more exactly their decisiveness, but pulling in all directions at once. They do not call themselves splitters for nothing.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
I think it’s a huge mistake to say it all goes away and we get on with much needed domestic agenda,
It will be exposed as a massive whopper of a lie, more patent than a gross figure on a bus.
No, I think it will “go away” in terms of the main agenda. Underneath the surface, it will gnaw our economic and moral vitals like a leech.
No. He’s appealing to all those who don’t want to hear the word brexit for years. They will hear more of it next year than this year. The so called deal is just a WA. What people don’t like about it (which is all parties except the Boris Party) they won’t shut up about, moreover we haven’t had so much brexit in news last few years where it’s been conceptual brexit means brexit, 2020 brings discussions on detail for all the media and politicians to get excited/angry about.
The time to put it to bed and move on line is a politically dangerous lie
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
A key group must be usual Tory voters who do not like Johnson or Brexit. Putting myself in their heads - not so difficult since 2 out of 3 apply - I think I would behave as follows.
I myself have been going back and forth between the blues and yellows for some time. I'm going to vote LD this time around, because this is a Tory safe seat so it's basically a free hit - but if I thought there were so much as a 1% chance of Labour winning around here, I'd be back to supporting the Tories like a shot.
For the vast majority of voters who would even consider backing the Tories, the number one priority is keeping Labour out of office. I'd imagine that the numbers who are so incensed by Brexit that they would be willing to vote LD come Hell or high water are very small.
Even the potential switchers in straight Con/LD marginals are banking heavily on Swinson refusing to install Corbyn as PM under any circumstances. If there were any hint of potential collaboration between the LDs and Corbynite Labour, the Lib Dem polling numbers would collapse back into single figures overnight.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
What a typically hypocritical post!!
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
When you say immediately, before/during Christmas or after. I understand Boris has spoke of nation taking much needed holiday and work begins in January?
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
Off course we will if anyone thinks the EU are going to say we'll just carry on trading as if you hadn’t left is not seeing the reality. Nobody has even started to consider financial services and they are not going to agree sector by sector agreements.
Does the decision on the future trading relationship rest with the council and EU parliament or with the component countries parliaments?
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
By (correctly) giving the Irish what they wanted and removing the last vestiges of UK No Deal leverage an extension to the transition period is all but guaranteed. That’s the next big Parliamentary row. Johnson’s choice will be buggering the country or burning his ERG bridges. Given what he did to the DUP, the ERG will be looking to bring him down come August/September.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
When you say immediately, before/during Christmas or after. I understand Boris has spoke of nation taking much needed holiday and work begins in January?
If it's going through standards can we expect a report in 3 years just before a new GE like Vaz?
Well, if it was an allegation of rape against a Labour Party official (e.g., Bex Bailey), then the time take to investigate is infinity.
Unless the allegation is against an out-of-favour Labour lump from NE Wales (Carl Sergeant), in which case the detailed allegations are never even made public at all.
Jo Swinson. 'I am a candidate to be Prime Minister'
She cannot be serious
It suits the Conservatives (and Labour) to make it a straight fight between the old duopoly but when you have the likes of Johnson and Corbyn you can't blame people for wanting to look elsewhere.
They might not be though. You mentioned Tory triumphalism, which is true, but people often assume the public will look elsewhere because the top 2 leaders are awful, and they might not. It's too early in polling to say, but theres at least initial indications people will not look elsewhere
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
I've never been to Singapore. However...
Re old people, it is true that the proportion of the population in Singapore that is over 65 is smaller than in the UK but that is changing rapidly. In 1950 only 2.4% of the Singapore population was aged 65+. That has now risen to around 13% compared to around 19% in the UK (the 1950 figure for the UK was 10.8%). The Singapore figure is rising rapidly and is expected to pass the UK within the next 10 years.
Life expectancy in Singapore is now higher than in the UK (83.4 vs 81.2) and is predicted to stay ahead.
Singapore has about the lowest fertility rate in the world. Without inward immigration it would age very rapidly. Not sure if that is the plan for Singapore on Thames*.
* I note that it is not Singapore on Trent, or Singapore on Tyne...
True, although I'm intrigued to note that Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain all have lower birth rates than Singapore.
I think only Portugal of those is lower than Singapore. Moldova and Taiwan are the other two on this list lower than Singapore.
I was looking at the crude birth rate per 1,000 population for 2015-2020 on https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/. This shows a few other countries below Singapore but it is certainly near the bottom of the list.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
I thought it was Feb this year TUD but have to say it is not high on my list of interesting topics, just your usual Tory behaviour.
Trying to decipher the tabloidese, I *think* the original incident was reported in Feb but took place earlier, & no names apart from Thomson's were mentioned at the time. From Sweeney's statement it sounds like he may have been the person involved in that incident.
The idea that "the attempts to influence don't influence people" is itself quietly effective meme that has spread through the Brexitverse. As with many other Brexit narratives, it's asserted with total confidence and zero evidence by those who have skin in the game. Shameful gullibility all over the place, including a lot of the people on these boards.
It's fascinating but it bothers me intensely when I see some kind of narrative take hold and sweep across the political terrain like a wildfire. a few weeks ago there was a flurry of posts about the Speakership. Person after person asserting "it should be Hoyle", and nary the slightest reason why. It wasn't people predicting something, it was saying what ought to happen. And never a justification. It was the usual suspects, mostly right-wingers who've been whipped up into a froth about Bercow. And whatever the rights and wrongs of that, I couldn't help wondering what was driving everyone to insist that there was only righteous outcome. I mean, you can be fucking certain that whoever comes next won't really be much like Bercow. So why must it be Hoyle? A mystifying and relatively innocuous meme gripped this place. Where did it come from? Perhaps nowhere, but it's another small piece of evidence that we are social creatures and we take our cues from others. That's how you end up with groupthink and even mobs. Of course we're influenced by others. Of course people respond to perceptions of critical mass. Most people -- you lot included -- are too cowardly to stand apart from a tribe. Advertising and propaganda works because humans are fundamentally gutless wimps. I can think of two people on these boards whom I think are free-thinking and brave. One of them is someone I often agree with, the other is someone I nearly always disagree with and have crossed swords with often. The rest of you are in a fucking daydream.
Some free thinkers slipped through the net? Someone alert OGH, we dont want that to catch on!
Not sure how one determines who is 'brave' in their posts though. Like malc I Hope it's me.
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
The stench of Conservative triumphalism is already pervading the site much as it did in May 2017.
They can’t help themselves.
..just like Labour cannot help themselves, believing that the Tories will make another catastrophic mistake like Mrs May did and things will be better and a majority denied. This election is about Brexit however anyone might like to pretend otherwise,.. and of course Corbyn being unelectable.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
It’s a big assumption to say that a squeeze of LibDems will help Lab, but a squeeze of BXP will help Con. Could easily be completely the opposite if you think entirely reasonably, that rise in LibDem polling is due to Con-Lib switchers and residual BXP vote is Labour leavers. Further more the Con-lD switch is not necessarily Con revokers, but Con anti no dealers. Who when push comes to shove are still more afraid of a Corbyn govt (especially now nodeal is “officially” off the table).
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
The stench of Conservative triumphalism is already pervading the site much as it did in May 2017.
I posted last night that a Boris majority is likely but also so is a hung parliament
I am not the least triumphant
I'm not conservative, but that seems a entirely reasonable attitude. Where is the path to victory for Johnson? If it is via Ashfield, Bassetlaw and the NE then he may be in for a surprise.
If it's going through standards can we expect a report in 3 years just before a new GE like Vaz?
If it occurred in public surely there are witnesses.
If it occurred in private then it’s he said he said - it’s not as if there will be physical or DNA evidence.
Still I do sympathise with Scottish male Labour MPs feeling bullied and intimidated - it used to be members of their ranks doing that in the not too distant past!
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless whilst a right wing English nationalists government inflicts its domestic agenda and its English nationalist brexit on them. If they push it too far, Sturgeon and fellow separatists may even end up like the Catalan separatists in jail due to the weakness of their political and legal position.
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
You are not right in the head but correct that Tories will win. However your piffle on Scottish government being imprisoned is just the ravings of a lunatic. Even if the Tories managed to corrupt UK law to such an unbelievable level, International law would trump it. I wonder why I am even responding to the rantings of a lunatic.
But it happened in Spain, when the exasperated leaders took decision to take it a step further than SNP have yet chosen and what international law are you pointing to riding to their rescue.
My head can intellectually debate you on this, starting with this thoughtful question, how do you see Scotland And Catalan winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
I think that is a correct reading. It is the size of the Tory majority that is now the only thing at issue.
Johnson really, really wants to win this. And he is completely shameless, so he will promise whatever he has to do to win it. Whatever he has has said before, he will happily gainsay.
Probably the only thing that can now limit the Tory majority is appeals to voters to remember what happens when there is a huge Tory majority in the past.
Privatisation of the air supply, babies lightly toasted and served on a bed of lettuce, the invasion of North and West Britain, etc.
Yes, his shameless patriotic posturing regarding the Rugby yesterday morning was stomach churning. He is of course only interested in England because that's where his majority will come from.
We're seeing the ending of the benefits freeze as another example of a ludicrous number of spending pledges which, had they come from a Labour leader, would have been derided on here but we have the absurd notion of a Conservative PM committing us to a consumption-based debt-fuelled boom which will wreck all the good work on the public finances by the Coalition, Osborne and Hammond and commit future generations to managing his debt.
Clearly, there is a fear leaving the EU will have a strongly negative economic impact and he is hoping to engineer a boom to offset that. Johnson has of course seen the economic forecasts which the rest of us can't see so I assume this is driving the absurd spending plans.
The golden rule for Johnson is he will always say what he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. He will promise anyone anything to get their vote or support and then discard them when no longer needed (ask the DUP if you don't believe me).
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
Astonishing Rebecca Long-Bailey interview on Ridge. Start off with a £250bn plan to insulate homes. A Quarter Of A Trillion Pounds. It'll pay for itself apparently.
And then Brexit. Her exact words that "our priority has always been to leave". She restated the deal to leave they will negotiate. And restated that there is no decision about them campaigning to support their deal to leave.
As I keep saying, Labour are a Leave party. Labour remainers tend to be the same people Shocked and Appalled by Corbyn and Momentum yet right now knock on doors asking people to make the person who Shocks and Appalls them Prime Minister. So obviously you can trust them to keep their word on Brexit that they will break their word as Labour MPs and campaign against their party policy.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
I've never been to Singapore. However...
Life expectancy in Singapore is now higher than in the UK (83.4 vs 81.2) and is predicted to stay ahead.
Singapore has about the lowest fertility rate in the world. Without inward immigration it would age very rapidly. Not sure if that is the plan for Singapore on Thames*.
* I note that it is not Singapore on Trent, or Singapore on Tyne...
True, although I'm intrigued to note that Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain all have lower birth rates than Singapore.
I think only Portugal of those is lower than Singapore. Moldova and Taiwan are the other two on this list lower than Singapore.
I was looking at the crude birth rate per 1,000 population for 2015-2020 on https://population.un.org/wpp/DataQuery/. This shows a few other countries below Singapore but it is certainly near the bottom of the list.
Fertility rate and crude birth rate are not quite the same statistic, generally the former is favoured by epidemiologists.
I think we agree though that without substantial inward immigration Singapore would have a shrinking and elderly population fairly quickly.
To a degree it seems to be a cultural thing now in the Far East. The one child policy is now a social norm outside the PRC too, and proving quite hard for governments there to reverse. Ditto in Mediterranean and Eastern Europe too.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
Do the rules allow indefinite extensions to the transition period? And bear also in mind that during the transition the U.K. has taxation without representation.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
Are you a parody account or actually as ignorant as you sound?
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
Do the rules allow indefinite extensions to the transition period? And bear also in mind that during the transition the U.K. has taxation without representation.
I understand there are mechanisms to negotiate extensions in the treaty but not indefinite
Astonishing Rebecca Long-Bailey interview on Ridge. Start off with a £250bn plan to insulate homes. A Quarter Of A Trillion Pounds. It'll pay for itself apparently.
And then Brexit. Her exact words that "our priority has always been to leave". She restated the deal to leave they will negotiate. And restated that there is no decision about them campaigning to support their deal to leave.
As I keep saying, Labour are a Leave party. Labour remainers tend to be the same people Shocked and Appalled by Corbyn and Momentum yet right now knock on doors asking people to make the person who Shocks and Appalls them Prime Minister. So obviously you can trust them to keep their word on Brexit that they will break their word as Labour MPs and campaign against their party policy.
Oh comrade. No more vicious a squirming than the worm that’s turning.
To sell your soul for 50 pieces of silver would be understandable, but to sell it for a revoke policy...
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
Depends on your definition of independent, the only change to the UK position is we will get no say in what they decide unlike now, nothing else will change until the continuing trade arrangements are agreed and possibly not even then.
Jo Swinson. 'I am a candidate to be Prime Minister'
She cannot be serious
It suits the Conservatives (and Labour) to make it a straight fight between the old duopoly but when you have the likes of Johnson and Corbyn you can't blame people for wanting to look elsewhere.
They might not be though. You mentioned Tory triumphalism, which is true, but people often assume the public will look elsewhere because the top 2 leaders are awful, and they might not. It's too early in polling to say, but theres at least initial indications people will not look elsewhere
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
"I want proper Brexit and was going to vote for the Brexit Party candidate as I did in the euro elections and the local elections. But now that Farage is coming here to campaign for my candidate instead of running somewhere else and not coming here, I can't vote for them. It's done for them".
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
Do the rules allow indefinite extensions to the transition period? And bear also in mind that during the transition the U.K. has taxation without representation.
I understand there are mechanisms to negotiate extensions in the treaty but not indefinite
Currently two 12 month extensions agreed six months in advance.
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
What a typically hypocritical post!!
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
The LDs have learnt the hard way, that it is FPTP that takes away the choice from the voters.
On topic, I understand Nick’s logic but I disagree. There was a lot of tactical voting last time on the Remain side and my impression is that there is much less appetite for tactically backing Labour this time. Since Labour are going to be the main challengers in most seats where the Conservatives are in contention, that’s very awkward for any anti-Conservative movement.
Astonishing Rebecca Long-Bailey interview on Ridge. Start off with a £250bn plan to insulate homes. A Quarter Of A Trillion Pounds. It'll pay for itself apparently.
That's10k for each of 25 million houses, so another infant school calculation.
Did they ask her about the difference between solid walled and cavity walled houses?
They are just throwing pieces of Leprachaun's Gold around.
I'll give you that RLB is a bear of little brain, albeit not able to compete with La Abbott.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
The Lib Dems are too Brexit-obsessed. It is their only policy.
The Conservatives, Labour, SNP and Greens all have a programme. You may not agree with their programmes, but they do possess one.
What do the Lib Dems stand for? Beyond Bollox to Brexit and PR I’m struggling to tell you. And I’m a politics geek. Ask Joe Public and you’ll get a blank look.
Add to that the lack of personalities and flair. It’s not just the leader, she has no depth behind her.
Add in the fact that the last time they were given a shot of power they rolled over on their backs and let David Cameron tickle their tummy. People have extremely long memories.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
Are you sure we won’t be contemplating the third extension to the transition period?
If Boris wins a majority we will leave by the 31st January. He will put the EU deal through the HOC immediately. There will be no further extensions under Boris
And then the fun begins, I am not sure you can rule out extensions to the transitional arrangements.
Indeed that is possible, even likely, but that will be as an Independent UK negotiating a FTA with the EU
Do the rules allow indefinite extensions to the transition period? And bear also in mind that during the transition the U.K. has taxation without representation.
I understand there are mechanisms to negotiate extensions in the treaty but not indefinite
Currently two 12 month extensions agreed six months in advance.
Currently I think it will be a Tory majority of about 20 to 40, Labour has picked up some LD votes but the Tories have picked up some Brexit Party voters since the campaign started so little change overall. Yes Labour (or the LDs) need to pick up Tory votes over the campaign to have a real shot at denying the Tories a majority again or making Corbyn PM
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
What a typically hypocritical post!!
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
The LDs have learnt the hard way, that it is FPTP that takes away the choice from the voters.
I know you live in Berlin, but -- hand on heart -- if you lived in Ynys Mon, would you really, really vote for a party that wants Welsh independence.
I have to say I am very sceptical that any of the LibDems on this board would actually do this, if they lived in rural Wales.
On the Democratic nomination, pistol-packing Pete is coming in fast, last traded at 7.
There are three stages here: who is going to actually pick up delegates in meaningful numbers; who is going to pick up the endorsements of the fallen (either before or at the convention, which is much more likely to be a factor given how the delegates are allocated); and, if necessary, who can horse trade with non-fallen rivals?
It seems to me that Elizabeth Warren has major structural advantages in such a race. Pete Buttigieg needs both to elbow past Joe Biden and to get support from him. Neither is a given. 7 is probably a fair price right now but no better than fair.
An interesting header Nick though not the encouraging one I'd hoped for when I saw your name underneath it.
The question it raises for Labour supporters like myself is why you and others like you didn't tell Corbyn what was obvious; That if he remained leader Labour would lose but if he passed the mantle to someone else the chances were good that we could have a Labour government?
Surely someone with your and his principles would want to put the party's interest before his personal ambition?
I think the national interest is to have a meaningful opposition with positive ideas, and much as I liked most of what we did in 1997-2010, by the end we were embarassingly short of policies (exactly as IMO the other parties are now - the Tories in particular need a spell in opposition to work out what they're for except Brexit). So my first priority was to have a leader with a positive vision - which cut out people like Owen who didn't seem to stand for anything except being not-Corbyn. My second priority was to have someone who would focus on the policies instead of personal mud-slinging - which cut out a whole bunch of people across the spectrum. And seeing repeated polls showing that no other named candidate was going to do better than Corbyn settled the matter.
I'm not convinced we'd be doing splendidly if we were led by, say, David Miliband. Sure, I can see Corbyn's not popular, but I think he'll be a good PM if he makes it, and in the end you have to go with your judgment on these things.
The question is not whether he'll be a good PM if he makes it but why no one did the obvious thing and look elsewhere when it was clear he wouldn't make it?
People are often popular or unpopular for reasons beyond logical understanding which is why ad agencies spend so much researching the appeal of celebrities before choosing them to front their product. Poll after poll has confirmed that Corbyn is not the right person to front the Labour brand. He would haemorrhage millions of potential voters.
Ignoring this will be career ending for dozens of talented and hard working Labour MPs. Stayng on was an indefensibe position for Corbyn to take.
Jo Swinson. 'I am a candidate to be Prime Minister'
She cannot be serious
It suits the Conservatives (and Labour) to make it a straight fight between the old duopoly but when you have the likes of Johnson and Corbyn you can't blame people for wanting to look elsewhere.
They might not be though. You mentioned Tory triumphalism, which is true, but people often assume the public will look elsewhere because the top 2 leaders are awful, and they might not. It's too early in polling to say, but theres at least initial indications people will not look elsewhere
In England one is lucky if there is an elsewhere.
There's always the LDs. They don't have many second places right now but they used to, and might again, and if people don't even give them the backing to get that then I think it's a bit much to suggest people are recoiling away from Johnson and Corbyn. I don't like either of them, but it's like when people talk about how hated the big parties are sometimes, focusing on how a majority are against them, which is true, but when they win they can still truthfully say they are the most popular party in the country.
I'll never forget Caroline Lucas presenting herself as the voice of the people of the nation, united in disgust at the Tories, days after the Tories won the 2015 GE. On less than 40% of the vote, granted, but its a hell of a lot more than she got.
A key group must be usual Tory voters who do not like Johnson or Brexit. Putting myself in their heads - not so difficult since 2 out of 3 apply - I think I would behave as follows.
I agree except for "Safe seat - vote Tory" many would vote LD knowing it makes no difference to their seat but registers "dissatisfaction" in Johnson via the national percentage.
The really tricky ones are the 3 way marginals. In some seats a Tory vote could "let Labour in" as the LD vote falls just short, in others an LD vote could "let Labour in" if the tories just fall short. Of course the Lab/LD voters have the reverse dilemma.
Swinson's claim of being a candidate for PM has to be put into the context of all the other people she's nominated as potential PMs this year. Like Margaret Beckett and Ken Clarke.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
For all the potential rising tide of Tory triumphalism, I think it is notable most of the predictions here for a Tory win are in the 'small to comfortable' range rather than landslide territory, even though certain polls, if borne out, would deliver landslides.
Jo Swinson. 'I am a candidate to be Prime Minister'
She cannot be serious
It suits the Conservatives (and Labour) to make it a straight fight between the old duopoly but when you have the likes of Johnson and Corbyn you can't blame people for wanting to look elsewhere.
They might not be though. You mentioned Tory triumphalism, which is true, but people often assume the public will look elsewhere because the top 2 leaders are awful, and they might not. It's too early in polling to say, but theres at least initial indications people will not look elsewhere
In England one is lucky if there is an elsewhere.
There's always the LDs. They don't have many second places right now but they used to, and might again, and if people don't even give them the backing to get that then I think it's a bit much to suggest people are recoiling away from Johnson and Corbyn. I don't like either of them, but it's like when people talk about how hated the big parties are sometimes, focusing on how a majority are against them, which is true, but when they win they can still truthfully say they are the most popular party in the country.
I'll never forget Caroline Lucas presenting herself as the voice of the people of the nation, united in disgust at the Tories, days after the Tories won the 2015 GE. On less than 40% of the vote, granted, but its a hell of a lot more than she got.
There is always an "election after this one", but we have to vote in this election for 2019 not in preparation for 2024.
They might not be though. You mentioned Tory triumphalism, which is true, but people often assume the public will look elsewhere because the top 2 leaders are awful, and they might not. It's too early in polling to say, but theres at least initial indications people will not look elsewhere
Yes because the fear ties the two old parties together. If you don't want Johnson you have to vote Corbyn - if you can't stand Corbyn voting Johnson seems the only way to stop him.
The duopoly becomes self-serving in every way. The Conservatives don't want Labour to collapse because the raisin d'etre for so many Conservative voters goes with it. If Labour are never going to win, why bother voting Conservative?
So much of that Johnson vote is an anti-Corbyn vote augmented by a desperation to get Brexit done. That coalition will get the Conservatives over the line in the short term but once Brexit has been delivered and IF Labour ditch Corbyn and move back to the centre, the environment is going to be a lot more hostile for Johnson defending his record and his promises.
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless whilst a right wing English nationalists government inflicts its domestic agenda and its English nationalist brexit on them. If they push it too far, Sturgeon and fellow separatists may even end up like the Catalan separatists in jail due to the weakness of their political and legal position.
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
You are not right in the head but correct that Tories will win. However your piffle on Scottish government being imprisoned is just the ravings of a lunatic. Even if the Tories managed to corrupt UK law to such an unbelievable level, International law would trump it. I wonder why I am even responding to the rantings of a lunatic.
But it happened in Spain, when the exasperated leaders took decision to take it a step further than SNP have yet chosen and what international law are you pointing to riding to their rescue.
My head can intellectually debate you on this, starting with this thoughtful question, how do you see Scotland And Catalan winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
The UK and Spain are two very different countries. Scottish secession is still a very real possibility and, moreover, there's little prospect of Scotland attempting a UDI which would fail to get past its own courts, and even less of a future UK Government attempting to hold Scotland by force.
*IF* there happens to be a Conservative victory next month then pleas from Bute House for a second independence referendum will fall on deaf ears: the Tories are, after all, a Unionist party, and Johnson may well be reliant on his surviving Scottish MPs for his majority. However, an outright victory for the pro-independence camp at Holyrood in 2021 (whether by the SNP alone, or if there's a combined SNP-Green majority) would probably reverse that position.
The flame of Unionism is guttering in England, and the SNP are Labour's main potential coalition partner at Westminster. One should not, therefore, be surprised if a great many English Tories view the dissolution of the Union with far greater equanimity than their predecessors would've done.
It is boring to hear people criticise the Lib Dems because they have the effrontery to stand in a GE.
What a typically hypocritical post!!
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
The LDs have learnt the hard way, that it is FPTP that takes away the choice from the voters.
I know you live in Berlin, but -- hand on heart -- if you lived in Ynys Mon, would you really, really vote for a party that wants Welsh independence.
I have to say I am very sceptical that any of the LibDems on this board would actually do this, if they lived in rural Wales.
There's a huge difference between voting for a party that wants independence, and voting for independence.
Would you like to go back in time and stop the #Brexit referendum ever being held? At the start of the third general election campaign in five years, more than half of British adults say yes, they would. https://t.co/727sTMNbv6
Comments
Car crash and worth watching
Because - whatever stuff Tory fantasists are smoking - you can't be the world's only free trading significant economy. So you have to start free trade with like-minded partners - and the biggest free trade area in history is the Single Market we're already a member of.
You particularly can't engage in thoughts of free trade with any of the world's most obsessive opponents of the idea: China, India, Russia or the US. Leading Europe to free-er trade with a US under different management from today's protectionists may well be a future role for Britain if it can negotiate Single Market membership outside the EU.
I'm not convinced we'd be doing splendidly if we were led by, say, David Miliband. Sure, I can see Corbyn's not popular, but I think he'll be a good PM if he makes it, and in the end you have to go with your judgment on these things.
Tory/Lab marginal - vote Tory.
Tory/LD marginal - vote LD.
Lab/LD marginal - vote LD.
3 way marginal - vote Tory.
Safe seat - vote Tory.
Tories bordering on arrogance.
Labour are going to spend several trillion quid putting loft installation into everyone’s house. What’s the most incredulous emoji? 🌈🦄🍡 unicorns on rainbow farting marshmallows
Labour will get a better result if every single one of them went on holiday till 11 Dec and the party fell silent between now and then.
https://www.facebook.com/NickPalmerNottingham/videos/10157785183664592/
What a joke and one can see you are a Tory by your pathetic attempt at support.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/3203419/Gordon-Brown-says-unemployed-should-lag-roofs.html
Given that unemployment is very low - who will now lag our rooves ? Prisoners or immigrants ?
Johnson really, really wants to win this. And he is completely shameless, so he will promise whatever he has to do to win it. Whatever he has has said before, he will happily gainsay.
Given Corby's grasp on the twenty-first century was always delicate, the election is now taking place in a fictional Universe when financial constraints do not exist. Things exist if politicians will them so.
Probably the only thing that can now limit the Tory majority is appeals to voters to remember what happens when there is a huge Tory majority in the past.
Privatisation of the air supply, babies lightly toasted and served on a bed of lettuce, the invasion of North and West Britain, etc.
Which is not the same as claiming to be serious contender to be PM of course, as she pretends.
Its silly, but the party wont mind over hyping if they make steps in the right direction.
So the problem for the Lib Dems is that, despite having advocated a confirmatory referendum for the last three years, there is no way that this could have taken place before Johnson blew up the entire economy and the whole social order of the country by lurching out of the EU with no kind of safeguards (the so-called "no deal" exit.
Matters were certainly not helped by the dithering and indecision of the Labour leadership. Or perhaps more exactly their decisiveness, but pulling in all directions at once. They do not call themselves splitters for nothing.
The time to put it to bed and move on line is a politically dangerous lie
For the vast majority of voters who would even consider backing the Tories, the number one priority is keeping Labour out of office. I'd imagine that the numbers who are so incensed by Brexit that they would be willing to vote LD come Hell or high water are very small.
Even the potential switchers in straight Con/LD marginals are banking heavily on Swinson refusing to install Corbyn as PM under any circumstances. If there were any hint of potential collaboration between the LDs and Corbynite Labour, the Lib Dem polling numbers would collapse back into single figures overnight.
The LibDems have been busy reducing choice for others, getting the Greens & Plaid Cymru to stand down. Hardly a day goes by without the LIbDems saying everyone else should not have the effrontery to stand in e.g., NE Somerset, they are the opposition to JRM. Or the Greens should stand down in Cambridge, or whatever.
The stupid Remain Alliance is not just taking the LibDems down like a stone in a plunge-pool, it is taking the Greens and Plaid Cymru down with them.
The Remain Alliance ... as though LibDems like you would ever vote Plaid Cymru even if you lived in the dunghills ...
https://youtu.be/AVrDd7_qxIs
Does the decision on the future trading relationship rest with the council and EU parliament or with the component countries parliaments?
Unless the allegation is against an out-of-favour Labour lump from NE Wales (Carl Sergeant), in which case the detailed allegations are never even made public at all.
I am not the least triumphant
Not sure how one determines who is 'brave' in their posts though. Like malc I Hope it's me.
If it occurred in private then it’s he said he said - it’s not as if there will be physical or DNA evidence.
Still I do sympathise with Scottish male Labour MPs feeling bullied and intimidated - it used to be members of their ranks doing that in the not too distant past!
My head can intellectually debate you on this, starting with this thoughtful question, how do you see Scotland And Catalan winning independence from the nation state determined to thwart them? How do you see it happening?
We're seeing the ending of the benefits freeze as another example of a ludicrous number of spending pledges which, had they come from a Labour leader, would have been derided on here but we have the absurd notion of a Conservative PM committing us to a consumption-based debt-fuelled boom which will wreck all the good work on the public finances by the Coalition, Osborne and Hammond and commit future generations to managing his debt.
Clearly, there is a fear leaving the EU will have a strongly negative economic impact and he is hoping to engineer a boom to offset that. Johnson has of course seen the economic forecasts which the rest of us can't see so I assume this is driving the absurd spending plans.
The golden rule for Johnson is he will always say what he thinks the audience in front of him wants to hear. He will promise anyone anything to get their vote or support and then discard them when no longer needed (ask the DUP if you don't believe me).
And then Brexit. Her exact words that "our priority has always been to leave". She restated the deal to leave they will negotiate. And restated that there is no decision about them campaigning to support their deal to leave.
As I keep saying, Labour are a Leave party. Labour remainers tend to be the same people Shocked and Appalled by Corbyn and Momentum yet right now knock on doors asking people to make the person who Shocks and Appalls them Prime Minister. So obviously you can trust them to keep their word on Brexit that they will break their word as Labour MPs and campaign against their party policy.
I think we agree though that without substantial inward immigration Singapore would have a shrinking and elderly population fairly quickly.
To a degree it seems to be a cultural thing now in the Far East. The one child policy is now a social norm outside the PRC too, and proving quite hard for governments there to reverse. Ditto in Mediterranean and Eastern Europe too.
Was it the first woman he sent to the abortion clinic, or the second one?
Or was it the child he had with another woman when he was married?
To sell your soul for 50 pieces of silver would be understandable, but to sell it for a revoke policy...
Errr, no
IMO he should have anticipated that question and had a clear answer ready, rather than just bumble his way through it.
Did they ask her about the difference between solid walled and cavity walled houses?
They are just throwing pieces of Leprachaun's Gold around.
I'll give you that RLB is a bear of little brain, albeit not able to compete with La Abbott.
The Conservatives, Labour, SNP and Greens all have a programme. You may not agree with their programmes, but they do possess one.
What do the Lib Dems stand for? Beyond Bollox to Brexit and PR I’m struggling to tell you. And I’m a politics geek. Ask Joe Public and you’ll get a blank look.
Add to that the lack of personalities and flair. It’s not just the leader, she has no depth behind her.
Add in the fact that the last time they were given a shot of power they rolled over on their backs and let David Cameron tickle their tummy. People have extremely long memories.
Put simply, she seems untroubled by the usual democratic ideals about how one becomes PM.
I have to say I am very sceptical that any of the LibDems on this board would actually do this, if they lived in rural Wales.
There are three stages here: who is going to actually pick up delegates in meaningful numbers; who is going to pick up the endorsements of the fallen (either before or at the convention, which is much more likely to be a factor given how the delegates are allocated); and, if necessary, who can horse trade with non-fallen rivals?
It seems to me that Elizabeth Warren has major structural advantages in such a race. Pete Buttigieg needs both to elbow past Joe Biden and to get support from him. Neither is a given. 7 is probably a fair price right now but no better than fair.
The Remain Alliance ... is no such thing. I honestly doubt if there will be any beneficiaries.
People are often popular or unpopular for reasons beyond logical understanding which is why ad agencies spend so much researching the appeal of celebrities before choosing them to front their product. Poll after poll has confirmed that Corbyn is not the right person to front the Labour brand. He would haemorrhage millions of potential voters.
Ignoring this will be career ending for dozens of talented and hard working Labour MPs. Stayng on was an indefensibe position for Corbyn to take.
I'll never forget Caroline Lucas presenting herself as the voice of the people of the nation, united in disgust at the Tories, days after the Tories won the 2015 GE. On less than 40% of the vote, granted, but its a hell of a lot more than she got.
The really tricky ones are the 3 way marginals. In some seats a Tory vote could "let Labour in" as the LD vote falls just short, in others an LD vote could "let Labour in" if the tories just fall short. Of course the Lab/LD voters have the reverse dilemma.
The duopoly becomes self-serving in every way. The Conservatives don't want Labour to collapse because the raisin d'etre for so many Conservative voters goes with it. If Labour are never going to win, why bother voting Conservative?
So much of that Johnson vote is an anti-Corbyn vote augmented by a desperation to get Brexit done. That coalition will get the Conservatives over the line in the short term but once Brexit has been delivered and IF Labour ditch Corbyn and move back to the centre, the environment is going to be a lot more hostile for Johnson defending his record and his promises.
*IF* there happens to be a Conservative victory next month then pleas from Bute House for a second independence referendum will fall on deaf ears: the Tories are, after all, a Unionist party, and Johnson may well be reliant on his surviving Scottish MPs for his majority. However, an outright victory for the pro-independence camp at Holyrood in 2021 (whether by the SNP alone, or if there's a combined SNP-Green majority) would probably reverse that position.
The flame of Unionism is guttering in England, and the SNP are Labour's main potential coalition partner at Westminster. One should not, therefore, be surprised if a great many English Tories view the dissolution of the Union with far greater equanimity than their predecessors would've done.
Would you like to go back in time and stop the #Brexit referendum ever being held? At the start of the third general election campaign in five years, more than half of British adults say yes, they would. https://t.co/727sTMNbv6