I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
An election’s been called. That means:
1) Corbyn and Johnson have ramped up the lie machine and got lots of publicity for huge spending commitments that they have neither the intention of keeping or for that matter the ability to keep. However, people will fall for it because they want to believe it;
2) It has concentrated minds we are electing a government and however well the Liberal Democrats were doing immediately beforehand it’s obvious they will not be forming it themselves. They are in the position they have been in every election since 1929 of being possible kingmakers in a hung parliament, but not the kings;
3) It has pushed the news agenda off Brexit, where their policy offering is most appealing to their target voters, and onto other areas where their policies are not known.
From the Liberal Democrat point of view, this election came about six months too soon. A few months more of Corbyn’s windy prevarication, Johnson’s incompetence and Swinson demanding Revoke instead of a crashout on the airwaves every evening could well have seen them go into a sustained second place. But I don’t think they’ll make the breakthrough now. It would take a really big, disastrous scandal for Labour in the next three weeks to do that, and that’s not impossible but it’s not in their control.
The LibDem's message as kingmaker though is "Let's kill the king!"
Well, TBF that’s a not unattractive message given who the current kings are.
True with Corbyn but Johnson has a better net favourable rating than Swinson and probably better than anyone who could plausibly replace him.
Hardcore remainers seem to view Johnson through the opposite of rose tinted glasses as they assume everyone else is as angry with him as they are but that's just not true according to the polling figures.
It’s not about everybody Philip. It’s about potential Orange voters. Do you think *they* have a favourable view of Johnson? (I seem to remember there was a poll on this recently but I can’t find it.)
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Probably because he’s a pathological bloody liar.
With apologies to Keith Waterhouse.
Boris seems to be repeating Cameron’s mistake. He is so desperate to win he will make any promise, even if it costs him the ability to govern later.
Reminds me of the AI in the ZX Spectrum of Monopoly, which was so desperate to complete a set it would trade you anything for the last card, including the two other cards it holds.
The opposition should exploit this. Get Boris on the record with ever more outlandish claims. He can’t help himself.
Yet I doubt even Boris will make a more outlandish claim than "Vote Liberal Democrat and will revoke Brexit!"........
I will get Brexit Done trumps anything in the mad promise stakes.
And of course the Russians, the Russians....... and all their twitter bots turning people. If you believe some that’s the biggest factor of all!
The Russians believe it, and presumably so do Labour and the Conservatives since they use many of the same techniques. It's like advertising. No-one admits to being influenced but somehow it's a multi-billion pounds industry.
And the next question is why is Boris blocking the report into Russian meddling?
It’s clean with a cheap well run public transport system - only £1 to cross the entire island from west to east on the metro. They even have videos on the platforms to show you how to be a decent human being and let people off the train first so its makes it easier to get on and give up your seat for a more nerdy person - Londoners please learn the merits of the former!
Welcome.
I must confess I like this idea that nerdy people should have priority in seating on public transport.
I had already amended that - it was a long post.
But thanks for the welcome - and the observation of my initial spelling mistake. Cos commenting on that rather than content is always useful!
It’s what I do, Richard, as you will doubtless have noticed.
Many years ago I was on a training course, given a policy on communications as an exemplar and told to read it and comment on it. After three lines I had five spelling mistakes, two punctuation errors and numerous grammatical howlers.
So I spent the whole fifteen minutes correcting it. So when she asked for feedback it suddenly dawned on me I hadn’t a clue what the actual content was.
Edit - in my defence, yesterday I had a rather miserable time on public transport and essentially had to stand from Victoria to Warwick Parkway. So my flippancy was partly due to current events.
Don't apologise, it was one of the great typos of all time. And highly welcome to the often overlooked special nerds community on here.
And of course the Russians, the Russians....... and all their twitter bots turning people. If you believe some that’s the biggest factor of all!
The Russians believe it, and presumably so do Labour and the Conservatives since they use many of the same techniques. It's like advertising. No-one admits to being influenced but somehow it's a multi-billion pounds industry.
And the next question is why is Boris blocking the report into Russian meddling?
It's quite possible that (as has been suggested elsewhere), there is nothing in it of note. And the greater the demand for it to be published, the more rabid the calls become, the more sensible he look when, at the height of the clamour, he issues the report....
(Although, c'mon, who could be surprised if the Russians DID want the winning guy to be someone called Boris.....)
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Probably because he’s a pathological bloody liar.
With apologies to Keith Waterhouse.
Boris seems to be repeating Cameron’s mistake. He is so desperate to win he will make any promise, even if it costs him the ability to govern later...The opposition should exploit this. Get Boris on the record with ever more outlandish claims. He can’t help himself.
First paragraph - all he cares about is winning. He’ll worry about the rest when he’s got a majority. From that point of view he’s taking the opposite approach to May, who tried to free herself to act on a radical programme and blew up her poll lead in the process.
Second paragraph - that might work if the Opposition weren’t doing exactly the same thing. Indeed, Corbyn would be even more hamstrung than Johnson because he’s making even more outlandish promises and there is the non-trivial chance that people would refuse to buy gilts with him in charge leaving him unable to pay day-to-day running expenses of government.
In an election you have three tasks...
(1) win (2) stop opponents from winning (3) restrict opponents freedom to govern as they like if they do win.
You need to cover all three basis, especially if you are not sure of your position.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
An election’s been called. That means:
1) Corbyn and Johnson have ramped up the lie machine and got lots of publicity for huge spending commitments that they have neither the intention of keeping or for that matter the ability to keep. However, people will fall for it because they want to believe it;
2) It has concentrated minds we are electing a government and however well the Liberal Democrats were doing immediately beforehand it’s obvious they will not be forming it themselves. They are in the position they have been in every election since 1929 of being possible kingmakers in a hung parliament, but not the kings;
3) It has pushed the news agenda off Brexit, where their policy offering is most appealing to their target voters, and onto other areas where their policies are not known.
From the Liberal Democrat point of view, this election came about six months too soon. A few months more of Corbyn’s windy prevarication, Johnson’s incompetence and Swinson demanding Revoke instead of a crashout on the airwaves every evening could well have seen them go into a sustained second place. But I don’t think they’ll make the breakthrough now. It would take a really big, disastrous scandal for Labour in the next three weeks to do that, and that’s not impossible but it’s not in their control.
The LibDem's message as kingmaker though is "Let's kill the king!"
Well, TBF that’s a not unattractive message given who the current kings are.
True with Corbyn but Johnson has a better net favourable rating than Swinson and probably better than anyone who could plausibly replace him.
Hardcore remainers seem to view Johnson through the opposite of rose tinted glasses as they assume everyone else is as angry with him as they are but that's just not true according to the polling figures.
Of course the the rose tinted specs of arslikan hardcore leavers are very rosy indeed.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
Well there was an apparent similar incident in February but no one including the police took it further.
Still unless it happened in the last couple of days why wait until now to go to the press about it as you say.
Is there an election on in a potential four way marginal? Labour Tory and SNP have all held the seat since 2010 and the LDs used to poll well there too.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
All that's happened is that 5 polls have been published right at the very start of the campaign, before the manifestos have even been published. I don't think you can read anything into that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs back up on 20% before long.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
I've never been to Singapore. However...
Re old people, it is true that the proportion of the population in Singapore that is over 65 is smaller than in the UK but that is changing rapidly. In 1950 only 2.4% of the Singapore population was aged 65+. That has now risen to around 13% compared to around 19% in the UK (the 1950 figure for the UK was 10.8%). The Singapore figure is rising rapidly and is expected to pass the UK within the next 10 years.
Life expectancy in Singapore is now higher than in the UK (83.4 vs 81.2) and is predicted to stay ahead.
Tories wont possibly get such a large majority. Why?
If libdems and Brexit party are squeezed to below 10% and tories maintain a lead of 12% than UNS is great again.
The Conservative party doesn't want the LibDems squeezed below 10%. They want the LibDems to be on about 15%, because that is almost all at the expense of Labour. And there are a lot of Lab/Con marginals.
The Workington constituency poll was very interesting for many reasons. One was just how low the LDs were polling. It may indicate they are polling far, far higher in other parts of the country.
I pointed out at the time that Workington has a history of being one of the worst LD seats in the country. In 1983, for example, they lost their deposit there despite getting 26% nationally. It was the 5th-worst Alliance showing in England at that election.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
All that's happened is that 5 polls have been published right at the very start of the campaign, before the manifestos have even been published. I don't think you can read anything into that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs back up on 20% before long.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
Well there was an apparent similar incident in February but no one including the police took it further.
Still unless it happened in the last couple of days why wait until now to go to the press about it as you say.
Is there an election on in a potential four way marginal? Labour Tory and SNP have all held the seat since 2010 and the LDs used to poll well there too.
On a more general observation, there do seem to be a remarkable number of gay politicians in Scotland. Are there fewer other outlets for a career in Scottish life if you are gay? Genuinely curious.....
Pollster comes up and says “would you vote Labour to keep the baby-eating Tories out” and the answer is “that sounds like a good idea”
Very few people go on to research that, get it right and then vote like that in the ballot box
Most pollsters most of the time don't frame the question like that. I also don't understand what "right" is in your example.
OTOH I would have thought tactical *lying to opinion pollsters* was the default option for anyone politically engaged who gets polled. If you are a permanent A voter do you say "B" to stop your fellow As getting complacent? Do you say "A, but I always voted B in the past" to demoralise B, or do you take the really, really boring 3rd option of being truthful?
If we are sophisticated enough that tactical voting websites ate two a penny we are sophisticated enough to tactically lie to pollsters. Especially as a tactical lie is worth about 2 oom more than a vote because N = in the 100s not the 10,000s.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
All that's happened is that 5 polls have been published right at the very start of the campaign, before the manifestos have even been published. I don't think you can read anything into that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs back up on 20% before long.
Given the scale of those swings, I wonder whether YouGov have changed their methodology? Their prompting for the Greens and (to an extent) the Brexit Party differs from most other companies and up to now has contributed to a Green vote share well in excess of that of other companies. They may have ceased such prompting. The alternative is that there has been a big shift in opinion. We will see.
It's looking very likely that Lib Dem and Labour votes are going to be used interchangably. I can't imagine voters from either party won't prioritise beating Johnson. My voting intention is beating Johnson's Tories but there's no box for that. most remainers will feel the same I'd guess
The idea that "the attempts to influence don't influence people" is itself quietly effective meme that has spread through the Brexitverse. As with many other Brexit narratives, it's asserted with total confidence and zero evidence by those who have skin in the game. Shameful gullibility all over the place, including a lot of the people on these boards.
Betfair Sports book of SNP under 51.5 @2.1 looks mighty tempting
Agreed.
The SNP are going to do OK, but hardly sparkle. We are now over 12 years into government, and that wears down any party.
Fortunately for us, our opponents are extremely weak.
The Scottish Tories are leaderless and directionless, a one-trick pony, crippled by their association with the buffoons in London.
Scottish Labour have the buffoon crippling them even closer to home. Their only half-competent parliamentarian Murray is despised by the Corbyn clique and civil war ravages most constituency parties.
The dire Swinson is loved by the BBC goons and their Unionist fellow-travellers at the Herald and Scotsman. That’s where her fan club begins and ends. She has zero traction out in the country.
The one big worry is: how many candidates will the Scottish Greens put up? If it’s only 3, as in 2017, then fantastic. If it’s 59, then the Unionists will be cock-a-hoop.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
I have been to Singapore a number of times. I think it’s very sweet that anyone believes it is a model that can be emulated in the UK, but I do look forward to the Tories trying - especially against a post-Brexit backdrop. Singapore began with next to nothing. It was, to all intents and purposes, a small, clean sheet of paper with no established socio-economic system, political make-up or even sense of itself. What was built was remarkable, but nothing was replaced, almost no-one lost out. That does not apply to the UK.
Of course it’s not a system you’d import wholesale somewhere else, no system is, but much of the British press and leftist commentators are trying to make it out as some capitalist hellhole which doesn’t match the reality.
Is it the state housing, the state pension or the public transport system that you propose implementing in the UK?
You may be surprised to know that I support looking at best practice from around the world when developing public policy, we should do what works, rather that be tied to a dogmatic view that something is good or bad because it’s public or private.
The Singapore housing system is almost certainly better than the British system, where something like £50bn a year goes in housing benefit subsidised rent payment in expensive cities.
The difficulty, as always with these things, is that we don’t start from a blank sheet of paper - rather we start from an existing system with all its good and bad points.
Housing, pensions and transport are all issues that British governments have put on the too-difficult list for decades, as trying to address them is too politically sensitive.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
I've never been to Singapore. However...
Re old people, it is true that the proportion of the population in Singapore that is over 65 is smaller than in the UK but that is changing rapidly. In 1950 only 2.4% of the Singapore population was aged 65+. That has now risen to around 13% compared to around 19% in the UK (the 1950 figure for the UK was 10.8%). The Singapore figure is rising rapidly and is expected to pass the UK within the next 10 years.
Life expectancy in Singapore is now higher than in the UK (83.4 vs 81.2) and is predicted to stay ahead.
Singapore has about the lowest fertility rate in the world. Without inward immigration it would age very rapidly. Not sure if that is the plan for Singapore on Thames*.
* I note that it is not Singapore on Trent, or Singapore on Tyne...
Some of them anyway: iirc it was reported during the 2010 coalition negotiations that the LibDem team had to be told by the Conservatives what was in their own manifesto.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
All that's happened is that 5 polls have been published right at the very start of the campaign, before the manifestos have even been published. I don't think you can read anything into that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs back up on 20% before long.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
All that's happened is that 5 polls have been published right at the very start of the campaign, before the manifestos have even been published. I don't think you can read anything into that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs back up on 20% before long.
But they do - for now - seem to have mislaid nearly 1 in 3 of their voters since the Conference......
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
You evidently know little or nothing of Singapore...
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
An election’s been called. That means:
1) Corbyn and Johnson have ramped up the lie machine and got lots of publicity for huge spending commitments that they have neither the intention of keeping or for that matter the ability to keep. However, people will fall for it because they want to believe it;
2) It has concentrated minds we are electing a government and however well the Liberal Democrats were doing immediately beforehand it’s obvious they will not be forming it themselves. They are in the position they have been in every election since 1929 of being possible kingmakers in a hung parliament, but not the kings;
3) It has pushed the news agenda off Brexit, where their policy offering is most appealing to their target voters, and onto other areas where their policies are not known.
From the Liberal Democrat point of view, this election came about six months too soon. A few months more of Corbyn’s windy prevarication, Johnson’s incompetence and Swinson demanding Revoke instead of a crashout on the airwaves every evening could well have seen them go into a sustained second place. But I don’t think they’ll make the breakthrough now. It would take a really big, disastrous scandal for Labour in the next three weeks to do that, and that’s not impossible but it’s not in their control.
The LibDem's message as kingmaker though is "Let's kill the king!"
Well, TBF that’s a not unattractive message given who the current kings are.
True with Corbyn but Johnson has a better net favourable rating than Swinson and probably better than anyone who could plausibly replace him.
Hardcore remainers seem to view Johnson through the opposite of rose tinted glasses as they assume everyone else is as angry with him as they are but that's just not true according to the polling figures.
Of course the the rose tinted specs of arslikan hardcore leavers are very rosy indeed.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision.
How come 80%+ live in what the UK would call “council houses”?
* Poll tracker, published 29 October - Lab average 25.4% * Six polls have since been published with fieldwork conducted 30 Oct or later - Lab average 27.7%
And the inevitable homeward march of the robots begins. Keep watching the Labour polling figures carefully: they'll be averaging 30% by next Sunday.
There's probably going to be another Hung Parliament, but if the Tories do scrape this it's going to be with a single-figure majority. Election night could be a nail-biter.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
Swinson is crap , they have few policies if any other than the stupid "Revoke", people know they are lying toerags with no principles. How is that for starters. They would also struggle to run a bath.
Pollster comes up and says “would you vote Labour to keep the baby-eating Tories out” and the answer is “that sounds like a good idea”
Very few people go on to research that, get it right and then vote like that in the ballot box
Most pollsters most of the time don't frame the question like that. I also don't understand what "right" is in your example.
OTOH I would have thought tactical *lying to opinion pollsters* was the default option for anyone politically engaged who gets polled. If you are a permanent A voter do you say "B" to stop your fellow As getting complacent? Do you say "A, but I always voted B in the past" to demoralise B, or do you take the really, really boring 3rd option of being truthful?
If we are sophisticated enough that tactical voting websites ate two a penny we are sophisticated enough to tactically lie to pollsters. Especially as a tactical lie is worth about 2 oom more than a vote because N = in the 100s not the 10,000s.
You only have to read the numerous pb posts, "I have just completed a poll on X", to see that parties have packed the panels with activists, who have presumably lied about various demographic indicators to get on the panels.
On tactical voting in particular, there will no doubt be even more disinformation than usual, now spread via social media rather than limited to dodgy LibDem barcharts.
* Poll tracker, published 29 October - Lab average 25.4% * Six polls have since been published with fieldwork conducted 30 Oct or later - Lab average 27.7%
And the inevitable homeward march of the robots begins. Keep watching the Labour polling figures carefully: they'll be averaging 30% by next Sunday.
There's probably going to be another Hung Parliament, but if the Tories do scrape this it's going to be with a single-figure majority. Election night could be a nail-biter.
There are still a large number of 'don't knows' who'd normally vote Labour. That will unwind over the course of the campaign. I expect most of them to go back to Labour
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
You could not make it up , anywhere else he would have been sacked on the spot and yet the Tories have done nothing, they really are a bunch of scumbags.
It’s clean with a cheap well run public transport system - only £1 to cross the entire island from west to east on the metro. They even have videos on the platforms to show you how to be a decent human being and let people off the train first so its makes it easier to get on and give up your seat for a more nerdy person - Londoners please learn the merits of the former!
Welcome.
I must confess I like this idea that nerdy people should have priority in seating on public transport.
I had already amended that - it was a long post.
But thanks for the welcome - and the observation of my initial spelling mistake. Cos commenting on that rather than content is always useful!
It’s what I do, Richard, as you will doubtless have noticed.
Many years ago I was on a training course, given a policy on communications as an exemplar and told to read it and comment on it. After three lines I had five spelling mistakes, two punctuation errors and numerous grammatical howlers.
So I spent the whole fifteen minutes correcting it. So when she asked for feedback it suddenly dawned on me I hadn’t a clue what the actual content was.
Edit - in my defence, yesterday I had a rather miserable time on public transport and essentially had to stand from Victoria to Warwick Parkway. So my flippancy was partly due to current events.
Don't apologise, it was one of the great typos of all time. And highly welcome to the often overlooked special nerds community on here.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
An election’s been called. That means:
1) Corbyn and Johnson have ramped up the lie machine and got lots of publicity for huge spending commitments that they have neither the intention of keeping or for that matter the ability to keep. However, people will fall for it because they want to believe it;
2) It has concentrated minds we are electing a government and however well the Liberal Democrats were doing immediately beforehand it’s obvious they will not be forming it themselves. They are in the position they have been in every election since 1929 of being possible kingmakers in a hung parliament, but not the kings;
3) It has pushed the news agenda off Brexit, where their policy offering is most appealing to their target voters, and onto other areas where their policies are not known.
From the Liberal Democrat point of view, this election came about six months too soon. A few months more of Corbyn’s windy prevarication, Johnson’s incompetence and Swinson demanding Revoke instead of a crashout on the airwaves every evening could well have seen them go into a sustained second place. But I don’t think they’ll make the breakthrough now. It would take a really big, disastrous scandal for Labour in the next three weeks to do that, and that’s not impossible but it’s not in their control.
The LibDem's message as kingmaker though is "Let's kill the king!"
Well, TBF that’s a not unattractive message given who the current kings are.
True with Corbyn but Johnson has a better net favourable rating than Swinson and probably better than anyone who could plausibly replace him.
Hardcore remainers seem to view Johnson through the opposite of rose tinted glasses as they assume everyone else is as angry with him as they are but that's just not true according to the polling figures.
Of course the the rose tinted specs of arslikan hardcore leavers are very rosy indeed.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
I've never been to Singapore. However...
Re old people, it is true that the proportion of the population in Singapore that is over 65 is smaller than in the UK but that is changing rapidly. In 1950 only 2.4% of the Singapore population was aged 65+. That has now risen to around 13% compared to around 19% in the UK (the 1950 figure for the UK was 10.8%). The Singapore figure is rising rapidly and is expected to pass the UK within the next 10 years.
Life expectancy in Singapore is now higher than in the UK (83.4 vs 81.2) and is predicted to stay ahead.
Singapore has about the lowest fertility rate in the world. Without inward immigration it would age very rapidly. Not sure if that is the plan for Singapore on Thames*.
* I note that it is not Singapore on Trent, or Singapore on Tyne...
True, although I'm intrigued to note that Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain all have lower birth rates than Singapore.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; .
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
Swinson is crap , they have few policies if any other than the stupid "Revoke", people know they are lying toerags with no principles. How is that for starters. They would also struggle to run a bath.
To be honest Malc, it is not about the leader but just 'revoke' is on a par with the 'poll tax' and 'dementia tax' as a self inflicted nonsense policy. I cannot understand for the life of me why they did not row in behind the peoples vote (stupid name) and offer an immediate referendum
In my experience Tactical Voters is mostly a term for switches. People only vote for parties that they substantially support, distinguishing tactical votes from genuine switchers is a mugs game. Motivations blend.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
You evidently know little or nothing of Singapore...
I presume you are one of the money makers that Mysticrose and think it is jolly hockeysticks.
Persuasively put by Dr Palmer. Small tory majority more plausible than landslide but labour not out of it yet. Farage and Swinson the potential wreckers.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
You could not make it up , anywhere else he would have been sacked on the spot and yet the Tories have done nothing, they really are a bunch of scumbags.
Doesn’t he deserve due process, or are we doing trial by Mail on Sunday headlines now?
Farage has already found his niche as the spiritual leader and conscience of Brexit. He doesn’t need to be an MP, he is more powerful and influential where he is. He is Palpatine to Boris’ Vader.
Just went back to the last thread and you're right: excellent stuff.
I had to pick up this part of the discussion though as I had the strangest feeling. It was deja vu. Something eerily eerily flashback. Like straight out of 2017. We had all this then. London was going Tory. Scotland too. The Labour heartlands were turning blue. Think the unthinkable. Theresa May taking her bus to places no Tory had ever won.
The idea that "the attempts to influence don't influence people" is itself quietly effective meme that has spread through the Brexitverse. As with many other Brexit narratives, it's asserted with total confidence and zero evidence by those who have skin in the game. Shameful gullibility all over the place, including a lot of the people on these boards.
It's fascinating but it bothers me intensely when I see some kind of narrative take hold and sweep across the political terrain like a wildfire. a few weeks ago there was a flurry of posts about the Speakership. Person after person asserting "it should be Hoyle", and nary the slightest reason why. It wasn't people predicting something, it was saying what ought to happen. And never a justification. It was the usual suspects, mostly right-wingers who've been whipped up into a froth about Bercow. And whatever the rights and wrongs of that, I couldn't help wondering what was driving everyone to insist that there was only righteous outcome. I mean, you can be fucking certain that whoever comes next won't really be much like Bercow. So why must it be Hoyle? A mystifying and relatively innocuous meme gripped this place. Where did it come from? Perhaps nowhere, but it's another small piece of evidence that we are social creatures and we take our cues from others. That's how you end up with groupthink and even mobs. Of course we're influenced by others. Of course people respond to perceptions of critical mass. Most people -- you lot included -- are too cowardly to stand apart from a tribe. Advertising and propaganda works because humans are fundamentally gutless wimps. I can think of two people on these boards whom I think are free-thinking and brave. One of them is someone I often agree with, the other is someone I nearly always disagree with and have crossed swords with often. The rest of you are in a fucking daydream.
Wow, those US speaking engagements must be paying really well if he doesn’t want to have to declare them.
Brexit Party must be close to dead on that announcement, he’s certainly not going to get a spot in any TV debates if he isn’t even standing.
Nicola Sturgeon got a debate slot despite not standing. As argued on the last thread, Jo Swinson really ought to challenge Farage to a head-to-head debate. It is win-win for the LibDems: gain votes from Remainers and let Farage peal off hardcore Leavers from the Conservatives.
On Lib Dems and Revoke. As a policy it's important as it differentiates the Lib Dems from Labour, it attempts to drive a wedge between Corbyn and his voters, it seeks to win/consolidate support from the six million who signed the Revoke petition in March.
But it doesn't help with those moderate Tories who want a pragmatic compromise on Brexit and a government who respect established constitutional norms, and behave responsibly with the nation's finances. They need a message for those voters too.
I think the LibDems already HAVE a message for moderate Tories and Labour supporters:
- We'd Revoke if we had an absolute majority, but we won't get one, so we'll ensure the grouping we support will give you a Ref2. Since we totally mistrust Johnson we won't support him at all - and since we trust Corbyn to carry on being a neoMarxist tolerator of antiSemitism, we'll support Labour only if it promises to get rid of him (though we might prop him up while a new leadership contest is running).
- Above all, though: we've kept one gang close to honest, and fiscally responsible, for five of the past nine years and that's what we're uniquely good at. We're still a bit ragged at the edges - but boy, we're great at forcing big parties to be a lot less awful than they'd be left to themselves.
Now that needs to be winnowed down to a headline-sized soundbite - but that's what the creative Johnnies and Joannas are there for. And the one demographic we dominate is adpeople.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
Well there was an apparent similar incident in February but no one including the police took it further.
Still unless it happened in the last couple of days why wait until now to go to the press about it as you say.
Is there an election on in a potential four way marginal? Labour Tory and SNP have all held the seat since 2010 and the LDs used to poll well there too.
On a more general observation, there do seem to be a remarkable number of gay politicians in Scotland. Are there fewer other outlets for a career in Scottish life if you are gay? Genuinely curious.....
Certainly be few better paid with access to so much totty after much subsidised bevvy
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
I don't buy that the LDs have done anything peculiarly awful (though they've made a mega hash of explaining their Revoke policy), and they haven't actually launched their campaign yet: that 8-pager Jo hagiography was a test to evaluate which seats would repay extra resource, and real resource decisions have to await the more or less final list of seats they'll be standing down in to support other Remain Alliance members.
But they MIGHT have a real problem, and the current polls MIGHT reflect it.
For all the other parties, the Brexit crisis is at worst a total distraction (eg from Johnson's main priority of staying PM for 5 years) or at best an opportunity to promote their real objective. For the LDs, it's almost existential: free trade, arguably, is the glue that binds most of its members.
No-one but the voters can decide what an election's about, but it IS possible that the natural dynamic of a UK election - at least in England - gives the two major parties an ability to re-assert the two-party system. And right now, Corbyn's desire to concentrate on his variant of Americaphobic neo-Marxism and Johnson's desire to concentrate on Corbyn's awfulness share a common interest in re-asserting the two-party system.
Nothing, both think, stimulates votes for them as much as stirring up a phobia against the other. And both the public-spirited and the foreign billionaire-owned media find that a headline-generating narrative to publicise.
Can the LDs overcome this? That depends on the ground war. And on the question of whether their superior strength in electoral guerilla warfare can work in a freezing, dark and damp campaign increasingly influenced (but still not dominated) by nationally-generated electronics.
If LibDems believe in free trade why are they so keen to remain in a customs union?
* Poll tracker, published 29 October - Lab average 25.4% * Six polls have since been published with fieldwork conducted 30 Oct or later - Lab average 27.7%
And the inevitable homeward march of the robots begins. Keep watching the Labour polling figures carefully: they'll be averaging 30% by next Sunday.
There's probably going to be another Hung Parliament, but if the Tories do scrape this it's going to be with a single-figure majority. Election night could be a nail-biter.
There are still a large number of 'don't knows' who'd normally vote Labour. That will unwind over the course of the campaign. I expect most of them to go back to Labour
Seems logical. I'd be very surprised if Labour did as well as 40% this time around, but they certainly aren't going to tank, except in Scotland. Wales looks like it could be worse for them than England in terms of decline in vote share as well, but most of their Welsh MPs are returned from ultra-safe seats so that shouldn't make very much difference.
The difference between a tiny Tory majority and another Hung Parliament is, therefore, likely to come down to some quite small shifts. How many Scottish Tories can fight off the SNP? How many hardcore Remainers are too angry with Labour to shift away from the Lib Dems? What will be the balance of ex-Tory and ex-Labour voters in the rump vote of the Brexit Party? It might even come down to how many of the handful of ex-Tory rebels standing as LDs or independents can survive.
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless whilst a right wing English nationalists government inflicts its domestic agenda and its English nationalist brexit on them. If they push it too far, Sturgeon and fellow separatists may even end up like the Catalan separatists in jail due to the weakness of their political and legal position.
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
I don't buy that the LDs have done anything peculiarly awful (though they've made a mega hash of explaining their Revoke policy), and they haven't actually launched their campaign yet: that 8-pager Jo hagiography was a test to evaluate which seats would repay extra resource, and real resource decisions have to await the more or less final list of seats they'll be standing down in to support other Remain Alliance members.
But they MIGHT have a real problem, and the current polls MIGHT reflect it.
For all the other parties, the Brexit crisis is at worst a total distraction (eg from Johnson's main priority of staying PM for 5 years) or at best an opportunity to promote their real objective. For the LDs, it's almost existential: free trade, arguably, is the glue that binds most of its members.
No-one but the voters can decide what an election's about, but it IS possible that the natural dynamic of a UK election - at least in England - gives the two major parties an ability to re-assert the two-party system. And right now, Corbyn's desire to concentrate on his variant of Americaphobic neo-Marxism and Johnson's desire to concentrate on Corbyn's awfulness share a common interest in re-asserting the two-party system.
Nothing, both think, stimulates votes for them as much as stirring up a phobia against the other. And both the public-spirited and the foreign billionaire-owned media find that a headline-generating narrative to publicise.
Can the LDs overcome this? That depends on the ground war. And on the question of whether their superior strength in electoral guerilla warfare can work in a freezing, dark and damp campaign increasingly influenced (but still not dominated) by nationally-generated electronics.
If LibDems believe in free trade why are they so keen to remain in a customs union?
There is more free trade inside the CU than outside it I guess.
I see those not well disposed toward the LDs or their leader are only too happy to put the boot in after a couple of disappointing polls.
I sometimes wonder if some of those who claim to be political experts have the slightest idea how politics works.
There is always an initial rush back toward the old parties as the sound of electoral gunfire beckons - the coverage has been all about Boris Johnson for weeks and he has put himself solidly with the Overwithers who are bored, frustrated and tired of Brexit and will accept any old rubbish Deal as long as it ends the nightmare.
For the LDs it's a time to sit tight and continue the ground level campaigning. Once the campaign really get sunder way and more coverage is available and expecially as polling day nears we will see if the party is able to pick up support back to 20% and beyond.
An election is a marathon not a sprint and too many of the know-nothings on here have obviously never got involved with an election on anything but the most superficial level.
The Conservatives will leave nothing to chance that money and influence cannot resolve and as a contest it's over. The question now id whether Johnson will win big or very big and the gloating of his supporters on here will be painful and unpleasant for the rest of us.
That said, the Conservatives will then have two tasks which are likely to be well beyond their competence - first, re-uniting the country after the referendum they initiated and second providing good governance. If we are genuinely to live in the "greatest place on Earth" as some dimwit put it, it would be nice to have reliable transport systems and not have to wait a month to see your GP.
Let's measure the new Government's record against their promises and see how they do over the next few years.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
You evidently know little or nothing of Singapore...
I presume you are one of the money makers that Mysticrose and think it is jolly hockeysticks.
No, I’m sitting in Singapore enjoying afternoon tea. As others have pointed out, it works for them, but it’s not remotely replicable in the UK - and both it’s proponents and critics are spectacularly selective when pontificating on its supposed virtues and vices.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
You could not make it up , anywhere else he would have been sacked on the spot and yet the Tories have done nothing, they really are a bunch of scumbags.
Doesn’t he deserve due process, or are we doing trial by Mail on Sunday headlines now?
I think you’ll find Malc is very keen on due process and innocent until proved guilty very shortly....
The comment that constituency effects even out may be true in the larger picture. It is patently not the case when considering Con/LD fights. There are hardly any LD seats where any local variation will let in the Conservatives (North Norfolk possibly). The London (and Surrey) local effect is a factor in 10 Conservative seats (and some Labour), with similar issues in other isolated Conservative seats such as Winchester. The constituency effects of Conservative defectors is also a one sided effect. In aggregate probably in excess of 25 Conservative held seats are vulnerable to potential (I do not say definite) local effects, whilst hardly any LD seats are similarly impacted.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; .
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
Swinson is crap , they have few policies if any other than the stupid "Revoke", people know they are lying toerags with no principles. How is that for starters. They would also struggle to run a bath.
To be honest Malc, it is not about the leader but just 'revoke' is on a par with the 'poll tax' and 'dementia tax' as a self inflicted nonsense policy. I cannot understand for the life of me why they did not row in behind the peoples vote (stupid name) and offer an immediate referendum
G, that is down to Swinson, she is obsessed. I keep saying it but she really is rubbish and has no clue, she is more right wing than the Tories but lacks any empathy or common sense.
Farage has already found his niche as the spiritual leader and conscience of Brexit. He doesn’t need to be an MP, he is more powerful and influential where he is. He is Palpatine to Boris’ Vader.
Pollster comes up and says “would you vote Labour to keep the baby-eating Tories out” and the answer is “that sounds like a good idea”
Very few people go on to research that, get it right and then vote like that in the ballot box
Depends what you mean by tactical voting. But voting to stop the party you like the least winning is probably standard practice for a large part of the electorate every time the country goes to the polls. FPTP encourages it.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
It was months ago , as ever mainly hushed up by London media as it was not the SNP. He was absolutely steaming and going about groping people according to the papers. Beginning of the year and Tories just brushed it under the carpet.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
I don't buy that the LDs have done anything peculiarly awful (though they've made a mega hash of explaining their Revoke policy), and they haven't actually launched their campaign yet: that 8-pager Jo hagiography was a test to evaluate which seats would repay extra resource, and real resource decisions have to await the more or less final list of seats they'll be standing down in to support other Remain Alliance members.
But they MIGHT have a real problem, and the current polls MIGHT reflect it.
For all the other parties, the Brexit crisis is at worst a total distraction (eg from Johnson's main priority of staying PM for 5 years) or at best an opportunity to promote their real objective. For the LDs, it's almost existential: free trade, arguably, is the glue that binds most of its members.
No-one but the voters can decide what an election's about, but it IS possible that the natural dynamic of a UK election - at least in England - gives the two major parties an ability to re-assert the two-party system. And right now, Corbyn's desire to concentrate on his variant of Americaphobic neo-Marxism and Johnson's desire to concentrate on Corbyn's awfulness share a common interest in re-asserting the two-party system.
Nothing, both think, stimulates votes for them as much as stirring up a phobia against the other. And both the public-spirited and the foreign billionaire-owned media find that a headline-generating narrative to publicise.
Can the LDs overcome this? That depends on the ground war. And on the question of whether their superior strength in electoral guerilla warfare can work in a freezing, dark and damp campaign increasingly influenced (but still not dominated) by nationally-generated electronics.
If LibDems believe in free trade why are they so keen to remain in a customs union?
...with a 16% and falling (of world GDP) protectionist bloc.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
Despite what Square Root disparagingly remarked, I'm planning my exit from Brexit. Actually, call that exit from Boris.
Most UK commentators who are droning on about the “Singaporean Nightmare”, have clearly never been within a thousand miles of the place.
(Great discussion about constituency seat markets at the end of the last thread BTW, some great tips there and PB at its best 👍)
Well I have and I know what I'm talking about, ta.
It revolts me. There is next-to-no social provision. When did you ever see an old person in Singapore? No, me neither.
It's a money making machine. It's not Britain.
So if he wins, I'm out.
I've never been to Singapore. However...
Re old people, it is true that the proportion of the population in Singapore that is over 65 is smaller than in the UK but that is changing rapidly. In 1950 only 2.4% of the Singapore population was aged 65+. That has now risen to around 13% compared to around 19% in the UK (the 1950 figure for the UK was 10.8%). The Singapore figure is rising rapidly and is expected to pass the UK within the next 10 years.
Life expectancy in Singapore is now higher than in the UK (83.4 vs 81.2) and is predicted to stay ahead.
Singapore has about the lowest fertility rate in the world. Without inward immigration it would age very rapidly. Not sure if that is the plan for Singapore on Thames*.
* I note that it is not Singapore on Trent, or Singapore on Tyne...
True, although I'm intrigued to note that Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain all have lower birth rates than Singapore.
I think only Portugal of those is lower than Singapore. Moldova and Taiwan are the other two on this list lower than Singapore.
For someone like myself who dreads the prospect of a cutthroat Singapore-on-Thames where there is no provision for anyone except money makers, the disadvantaged are downtrodden and social provision is dismantled, this is all terribly depressing.
You evidently know little or nothing of Singapore...
I presume you are one of the money makers that Mysticrose and think it is jolly hockeysticks.
Pollster comes up and says “would you vote Labour to keep the baby-eating Tories out” and the answer is “that sounds like a good idea”
Very few people go on to research that, get it right and then vote like that in the ballot box
Very few? Well for one thing that can make the difference, and for another it seemed to happen plenty last time if one ascribes to the theory people voted to stop a tory majority rather than back corbyn, which many do.
Some Jock MP on Jock MP action, for those who like that sort of thing. One wonders why publicity shy Mr Sweeney (my MP as it happens) has waited until the run up to a GE to reveal his grope nightmare.
It was months ago , as ever mainly hushed up by London media as it was not the SNP. He was absolutely steaming and going about groping people according to the papers. Beginning of the year and Tories just brushed it under the carpet.
Indeed. Pretty sure it has even been discussed here before.
He seems to be one of those “unhappy” sorts who are perhaps better off not seeking public office.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
I think it’s a huge mistake to say it all goes away and we get on with much needed domestic agenda,
It will be exposed as a massive whopper of a lie, more patent than a gross figure on a bus.
Pollster comes up and says “would you vote Labour to keep the baby-eating Tories out” and the answer is “that sounds like a good idea”
Very few people go on to research that, get it right and then vote like that in the ballot box
Depends what you mean by tactical voting. But voting to stop the party you like the least winning is probably standard practice for a large part of the electorate every time the country goes to the polls. FPTP encourages it.
You know you can say TV instead of tactical voting now.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
If we Boris wins a healthy majority then I have no doubt that Brexit - as it has dogged politics in recent years - will be gone by the next election due in May 2024. We will have been out legally for more than 4 years by that point and probably even have an FTA agreed by that point too [Barnier has put a 3 year timescale on that and it seems realistic to me].
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
On topic. I’m calling this election outcome already. The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless whilst a right wing English nationalists government inflicts its domestic agenda and its English nationalist brexit on them. If they push it too far, Sturgeon and fellow separatists may even end up like the Catalan separatists in jail due to the weakness of their political and legal position.
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
You are not right in the head but correct that Tories will win. However your piffle on Scottish government being imprisoned is just the ravings of a lunatic. Even if the Tories managed to corrupt UK law to such an unbelievable level, International law would trump it. I wonder why I am even responding to the rantings of a lunatic.
How sensitive are these leads? Assume there is some tactical voting. I know that lots of us would not consider it, but it’s an objective fact that there are folk out there who do, and they mostly are either BXP->Con, Green->Lab or LD, or Lab->LD.
We're looking at swings from last time, so they already assume there's some tactical voting. What we need to know is whether there will be more tactical voting than last time.
I think there probably will be on balance, but it's not really clear; Corbyn seems to be actively disliked in a way that he wasn't really last time, and Labour tribalists seem to hate Jo Swinson with a passion they couldn't really summon up against Tim Farron. It's not beyond the bounds of possibility that there could be *less* tactical voting, in which case you need to adjust in the opposite direction.
Boris now has a positive net rating from two pollsters. Compared to minus a gazillion for Corbyn.
We might be suprised at how many Tory REMAIN voters go back to Boris to stop Corbyn. I predict the Libdem vote to be further squeezed this week, and Tories to pick half of them.
Tory remainers want to stop Brexit , but the thought of Corbyn is likely to make them vote Tory, In my constituency it won't make any difference as Nick Herbert has a massive majority. The LD's don't have a chance there.
I think you have hit a nail on the head with "Tory remainers want to stop Brexit". Certainly Non Tory remainers want to stop Brexit, but Tory Remainers ???
No, I don't think they do. And that is one of the reasons why Swinson's message is so poorly received.
I was going to post a message asking what people think has gone wrong for the LibDems. I'm one myself but I've had qualms about a few things. This isn't really an invitation for an attack on Jo Swinson, partly because I don't think it can be just her and partly because there's a bit of misogyny around in my opinion.
No, something on policy or behaviour seems to have gone badly awry to take them from the 20% to 14% level.
All that's happened is that 5 polls have been published right at the very start of the campaign, before the manifestos have even been published. I don't think you can read anything into that. I wouldn't be surprised to see the LDs back up on 20% before long.
who reads manifestos?
Me. Some poor spod had put them together at least one person should read them.
Farage has already found his niche as the spiritual leader and conscience of Brexit. He doesn’t need to be an MP, he is more powerful and influential where he is. He is Palpatine to Boris’ Vader.
Like in Episode VI Boris will defeat Palpatine?
By renouncing Brexit off course and at the cost of his own political career. That would indeed be a turn of events. Let’s hope so.
Why is Boris promising that Brexit will go away when he can’t deliver that?
Because people mean different things by Brexit, and he can talk about ending the debate on if we Brexit, which he can deliver, and imply therefore that the way we Brexit will be dealt with as well, which he cannot deliver, not for a long while.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
I think it’s a huge mistake to say it all goes away and we get on with much needed domestic agenda,
It will be exposed as a massive whopper of a lie, more patent than a gross figure on a bus.
No, I think it will “go away” in terms of the main agenda. Underneath the surface, it will gnaw our economic and moral vitals like a leech.
Comments
(Although, c'mon, who could be surprised if the Russians DID want the winning guy to be someone called Boris.....)
Pollster comes up and says “would you vote Labour to keep the baby-eating Tories out” and the answer is “that sounds like a good idea”
Very few people go on to research that, get it right and then vote like that in the ballot box
(1) win
(2) stop opponents from winning
(3) restrict opponents freedom to govern as they like if they do win.
You need to cover all three basis, especially if you are not sure of your position.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1190914096260145152?s=20
Still unless it happened in the last couple of days why wait until now to go to the press about it as you say.
Is there an election on in a potential four way marginal? Labour Tory and SNP have all held the seat since 2010 and the LDs used to poll well there too.
(And yes I've been to both).
Re old people, it is true that the proportion of the population in Singapore that is over 65 is smaller than in the UK but that is changing rapidly. In 1950 only 2.4% of the Singapore population was aged 65+. That has now risen to around 13% compared to around 19% in the UK (the 1950 figure for the UK was 10.8%). The Singapore figure is rising rapidly and is expected to pass the UK within the next 10 years.
Life expectancy in Singapore is now higher than in the UK (83.4 vs 81.2) and is predicted to stay ahead.
I'd rather have neither though. A repaired Britain which had a good balance of wealth creation and social infrastructure would be just fine.
Where is the big Lib Dem magic money tree announcement ?
OTOH I would have thought tactical *lying to opinion pollsters* was the default option for anyone politically engaged who gets polled. If you are a permanent A voter do you say "B" to stop your fellow As getting complacent? Do you say "A, but I always voted B in the past" to demoralise B, or do you take the really, really boring 3rd option of being truthful?
If we are sophisticated enough that tactical voting websites ate two a penny we are sophisticated enough to tactically lie to pollsters. Especially as a tactical lie is worth about 2 oom more than a vote because N = in the 100s not the 10,000s.
Have a good morning.
The SNP are going to do OK, but hardly sparkle. We are now over 12 years into government, and that wears down any party.
Fortunately for us, our opponents are extremely weak.
The Scottish Tories are leaderless and directionless, a one-trick pony, crippled by their association with the buffoons in London.
Scottish Labour have the buffoon crippling them even closer to home. Their only half-competent parliamentarian Murray is despised by the Corbyn clique and civil war ravages most constituency parties.
The dire Swinson is loved by the BBC goons and their Unionist fellow-travellers at the Herald and Scotsman. That’s where her fan club begins and ends. She has zero traction out in the country.
The one big worry is: how many candidates will the Scottish Greens put up? If it’s only 3, as in 2017, then fantastic. If it’s 59, then the Unionists will be cock-a-hoop.
51.5 looks far too ambitious.
The Singapore housing system is almost certainly better than the British system, where something like £50bn a year goes in housing benefit subsidised rent payment in expensive cities.
The difficulty, as always with these things, is that we don’t start from a blank sheet of paper - rather we start from an existing system with all its good and bad points.
Housing, pensions and transport are all issues that British governments have put on the too-difficult list for decades, as trying to address them is too politically sensitive.
The biggest lie is “we’ll get Brexit done”.
* I note that it is not Singapore on Trent, or Singapore on Tyne...
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1190920958330187776
It makes him come across as mildly demented.
* Poll tracker, published 29 October - Lab average 25.4%
* Six polls have since been published with fieldwork conducted 30 Oct or later - Lab average 27.7%
And the inevitable homeward march of the robots begins. Keep watching the Labour polling figures carefully: they'll be averaging 30% by next Sunday.
There's probably going to be another Hung Parliament, but if the Tories do scrape this it's going to be with a single-figure majority. Election night could be a nail-biter.
On tactical voting in particular, there will no doubt be even more disinformation than usual, now spread via social media rather than limited to dodgy LibDem barcharts.
Brexit Party must be close to dead on that announcement, he’s certainly not going to get a spot in any TV debates if he isn’t even standing.
Mrs Foxy rather liked RLB on Ridge on Sunday.
This confirms the end of Farage's political career. The second we Brexit he is no longer an MEP and good riddance.
It was the usual suspects, mostly right-wingers who've been whipped up into a froth about Bercow. And whatever the rights and wrongs of that, I couldn't help wondering what was driving everyone to insist that there was only righteous outcome. I mean, you can be fucking certain that whoever comes next won't really be much like Bercow. So why must it be Hoyle? A mystifying and relatively innocuous meme gripped this place. Where did it come from? Perhaps nowhere, but it's another small piece of evidence that we are social creatures and we take our cues from others. That's how you end up with groupthink and even mobs.
Of course we're influenced by others. Of course people respond to perceptions of critical mass. Most people -- you lot included -- are too cowardly to stand apart from a tribe. Advertising and propaganda works because humans are fundamentally gutless wimps.
I can think of two people on these boards whom I think are free-thinking and brave. One of them is someone I often agree with, the other is someone I nearly always disagree with and have crossed swords with often. The rest of you are in a fucking daydream.
- We'd Revoke if we had an absolute majority, but we won't get one, so we'll ensure the grouping we support will give you a Ref2. Since we totally mistrust Johnson we won't support him at all - and since we trust Corbyn to carry on being a neoMarxist tolerator of antiSemitism, we'll support Labour only if it promises to get rid of him (though we might prop him up while a new leadership contest is running).
- Above all, though: we've kept one gang close to honest, and fiscally responsible, for five of the past nine years and that's what we're uniquely good at. We're still a bit ragged at the edges - but boy, we're great at forcing big parties to be a lot less awful than they'd be left to themselves.
Now that needs to be winnowed down to a headline-sized soundbite - but that's what the creative Johnnies and Joannas are there for. And the one demographic we dominate is adpeople.
The difference between a tiny Tory majority and another Hung Parliament is, therefore, likely to come down to some quite small shifts. How many Scottish Tories can fight off the SNP? How many hardcore Remainers are too angry with Labour to shift away from the Lib Dems? What will be the balance of ex-Tory and ex-Labour voters in the rump vote of the Brexit Party? It might even come down to how many of the handful of ex-Tory rebels standing as LDs or independents can survive.
The polls are clear, unless they change DRAMATICALLY on last night Labour and Lib Dem are going to be in a weak place in terms of seats in the coming parliament, after the Bojob (c) on them. they won’t even have any any Tory remainer friends left. So a very very weak, impotent position for them.
The SNP might be winners in terms of few more seats, But even if they take all 59 Scottish constituencies, they ain’t getting another ref, they still have to sit there like 59 lame ducks in HoC helpless whilst a right wing English nationalists government inflicts its domestic agenda and its English nationalist brexit on them. If they push it too far, Sturgeon and fellow separatists may even end up like the Catalan separatists in jail due to the weakness of their political and legal position.
But all these losers gave Cummings and Bojob (c) the election they desperately needed, so let’s get on with it.
I see those not well disposed toward the LDs or their leader are only too happy to put the boot in after a couple of disappointing polls.
I sometimes wonder if some of those who claim to be political experts have the slightest idea how politics works.
There is always an initial rush back toward the old parties as the sound of electoral gunfire beckons - the coverage has been all about Boris Johnson for weeks and he has put himself solidly with the Overwithers who are bored, frustrated and tired of Brexit and will accept any old rubbish Deal as long as it ends the nightmare.
For the LDs it's a time to sit tight and continue the ground level campaigning. Once the campaign really get sunder way and more coverage is available and expecially as polling day nears we will see if the party is able to pick up support back to 20% and beyond.
An election is a marathon not a sprint and too many of the know-nothings on here have obviously never got involved with an election on anything but the most superficial level.
The Conservatives will leave nothing to chance that money and influence cannot resolve and as a contest it's over. The question now id whether Johnson will win big or very big and the gloating of his supporters on here will be painful and unpleasant for the rest of us.
That said, the Conservatives will then have two tasks which are likely to be well beyond their competence - first, re-uniting the country after the referendum they initiated and second providing good governance. If we are genuinely to live in the "greatest place on Earth" as some dimwit put it, it would be nice to have reliable transport systems and not have to wait a month to see your GP.
Let's measure the new Government's record against their promises and see how they do over the next few years.
Given the nature of this election such a lack of balance in such effects is material.
Palpatine was the direct master of Vader and the ruler of the Empire.
Not to mention, both were far more capable than Farage/Boris Johnson.
Corby will increase Labour's poll ratings modestly, but the Tory campaign is not going to be as mind-bogglingly amateurish & flat-footed as last time.
Dom is probably feeding Shagger hormonal pills to control his libido, so I don't expect there will be any major incidents in the campaign.
Yes, he is deliberately making it seem simpler than it is. But a lot of people would be relieved by achieving the first, and it must be the most important bit or people would not have fought so hard to prevent it happening.
http://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/total-fertility-rate/
She cannot be serious
He seems to be one of those “unhappy” sorts who are perhaps better off not seeking public office.
It will be exposed as a massive whopper of a lie, more patent than a gross figure on a bus.
FTAs get agreed by nations quite regularly and are nothing like as all-consuming as Brexit has been. Maybe come 2024 the LDs will still be campaigning to Rejoin but I suspect that will be a very niche concern by then and the Labour Party will want to campaign on domestic politics.
And isn't being.